“I’m surprised you’re all here. I had heard the VLJ revolution was over. I’m happy to be here.”
“A couple weeks ago, 10 days ago, I was in Amelia Island. I flew an Eclipse there. I was invited to Edsel Ford’s 60th birthday. Edsel said to me “This is the challenge. Our business depends on one thing--scale. It’s not about the car we build, it’s that we build it on a large enough scale. We have to get to that level that we break even. We know we’re making the right trucks. We know we got a great product in Europe. But for us to bring one of those cars to the States, we can’t just shut a factory down and start making Fiestas. It would be multi-billion dollar investment. Overnight we saw attitudes in America change. We've sold pickups for 60 years, and now we think we've lost all the customers who don’t use pickups for a living.”
He then moved onto what the transcript describes as being the ‘key discussion’ during the day.
“This is a business of scale and capital formation. I’m really good at that. I'm probably the only person in this room who has raised $1 billion in capital. Don’t know if that’s good or bad, but it’s a fact. How do you do this? Not a lot of ways right now. There's a lot of discussion about organic growth--that's a fancy way of saying you fund it yourself. I don’t want to take a drug from a drug company that used organic growth to develop that drug. This industry is time intensive, it's regulatory intensive, it's capital intensive. And it can’t be done by raising a million from family and friends. Piper said they can build a jet for $150 million. At Eclipse, we had to build the whole infrastructure from scratch. About half a billion was spent getting the aircraft through cert. Half of that, $250 million, was because we had to start over a couple times. There was the failure of the Williams engine. I praise P&W. I’ve been criticized in the media for saying the problems were due to vendors. I’ve never said that. If one vendor--in a chain--fails, that’s a big problem. Ask Boeing (about the 787).”
There you have it. He’s actually boasting about blowing a BILLION dollars of other people’s money, and now tries to rub their noses in it by saying he had to ‘start over’ several times. There were several remarks about Williams, and P&W. Needless to say, they were self serving and no longer relevant. The Wedge then moved back to his core premise:-
“This is a business of scale. If you say we’re going to produce 30 a year, that’s going to drive capability, cost. The thesis here that I’d like to explore is that it's time to change the definition of VLJ: Value Light Jet. That's the real theme. Now were finally talking about facts, not database speculation. We have real facts. "We have seen the dogs eat the dog food." Ed proved it this morning. Bill [Herp] talked about it. It is happening. The underlining theme is one thing: it’s about value. Most of their customers are not coming out of NetJets or the airlines. They're coming off the highways. How do you get these people off the highway? Offer them a better value. Offer a different set of values: time, convenience, safety. It will be different for every consumer. Truly on demand and customized.”
The only thing that Ed proved was how to go bankrupt in under a year. Mind you, he did have help from his ‘friends’ at EAC, so it was not a solo effort. Despite the visible proof that there is no ‘air taxi’ market of sufficient size to drive real volume, The Wedge refuses to drop the shovel he’s using to dig the hole he’s in and continues.
“I’d like to see VLJs and air taxis---VLJs are an enabler. Any one of a number of airplanes will work. VLJs bring a new dimension. Here’s a little secret the Eclispe 500 is the airplane I wanted. A ‘turbofan’ Duke. What I wanted was a jet that was like a Duke. That’s what the Eclipse started out as. The ultimate owner pilot aircraft. It is still the core of who Eclipse is selling to, especially since the demise of DayJet. Don’t associate air taxi and VLJs. Air taxi can thrive and succeed without VLJ, and VLJs can survive without air taxis.”
Drivel, pure drivel. I can’t make sense of what he’s saying, and I don’t think he can either. Is it that DayJet shows you can’t run a small scale taxi operation, or that the whole idea is a distraction and the real market is the ‘owner pilot’? And then, for no reason I can fathom, he is recorded as saying next:-
“I was involved in early stages of development of PowerPoint: I have made 2 promises to myself: I quit shaving. I don’t use PowerPoint anymore.”
I don’t know why he said this, or the link between facial hair and presenting ideas, but he said it. As usual, he can’t avoid a direct lie. PowerPoint was bought by Microsoft from a Macintosh developer in 1987. The Wedge left Microsoft in 1982…
“We were convinced (old partner, college roommate) we could sell computers to people just like Pacific Stereos sells to people. Thought it would take 6 months. It took 10 years. That industry is 12 times faster than aviation industry. I look at the VLJ industry and say it’s not going as fast as I would have liked. I want things to happen 10 faster than physics says it can. We’ve got 400 airplanes 260 Eclipse. Cessna 250. The safety record is phenomenal. People said, “It’s going to be the next doctor killer, the next Bonanza.” They say to the owner-pilot, “You’re a good pilot, except you’re not professional. Screw you asshole.” Cirrus killed lots of people. After 2 years Eclipse has 2 accidents, both runway overruns. Cessna and Eclipse take a different attitude toward training. I think we’re doing pretty good. People out there don’t want us to succeed. This is an industry that eats its young. Capital formation very difficult. It’s difficult because it requires a lot. It can’t be done in your garage. It requires lots of capital, lots of patience. It’s fraught with people whose comment to anything new is “It can’t be done. It hasn’t been done, so it shouldn’t be done” or “Well if it could have been done, we would have used King Airs.” Bullshit. The airplane doesn’t make a flip bit of difference.”
Now now, lets keep the language clean around here. The Wedge gets back into paranoid mode:-
“It’s a willingness to take risks. Entrepreneurship. This industry has lost its spirit of entrepreneurship, and it’s phenomenally sad. This is an industry, if it doesn’t change attitude, its approach to innovation, disruption [is in real trouble] Early 2001, Russ Meyer--who I admire, he made Cessna what it is---Russ is a great man. Russ sought out two off my largest investors to tell them it was stupid of them to invest. “It won’t work” It didn’t help my cause, someone of his magnitude, credibility, stature, to seek out investors and board members to say don’t do this. That’s what I’m talking about.”
See, everyone was out to ‘get’ him, all them dinosaurs from the existing aviation community. There are evil men everywhere, bent on browbeating a saint who never lifted a feather to any of his competitors. Shame on them. The problem with his views on these matters is very simple, and may indeed indicate a deeper psychosis. Everyone else is wrong, because The Wedge is always right. There are a range of medical conditions and personality disorders which we could consider, but this is an aviation blog, not a medical one.
“What am I going to do next? I don’t know. I’m an entrepreneur. I know how to take risks and I’m proud of that. It’s not the first failure in my life, and probably won’t be the last. But we need capital, and the future of capital is pretty bleak. I think we’re in for a tough period. We’ve been drunk on credit for a decade. But that’s a free economy. This isn’t new news.”
Probably the most sensible thing he said for a long time. Are you listening Roel? This chap claims to know more about the market than anyone else, and he says the future is bleak.
“We have never had financial global systems so completely interwoven. It’s really scary. Problem is that we have an increasingly uneducated electorate. I still think the best comment: Warren Buffet---time to be fearful when everyone’s greedy, be greedy when everyone else is fearful. Intense fear right now. I’m very concerned about attitudes. I don’t share Ed’s pessimistic view. We’ll emerge differently, but not necessarily right away.”
Ed was clearly better informed than The Wedge. If anything the short term outlook is getting worse.
“Where will I end up? Where the capital takes me. Green tech is very hot right now. Am I going to start a nuclear power company? That has it’s own set of regulatory complications. I don’t know. When I do, I’ll let you know.”
There you go. Watch out fellas, he is thinking of going nuclear. Clear out those old bomb shelters and lay in a stock of food. The Wedge wants to go out in a real blaze of glory.
“People have asked me if I’m going to be the next Secretary of Transportation. No way in all of God’s green earth. If I were to go to DC, I only wonder how long it would be before I blew up and went postal. No. I’m not politically connected enough. I didn’t vote for Obama. One article said I was a member of Obama’s aviation staff. No. I feel like Sarah Plain. No I’m not going to be the Secretary of Transportation or the next FAA administrator. I’m not going to be involved in government. I’ve watched that town suck the life out of [people]. Not a good place. It is a profoundly and decidedly negative place to exist.”
As far as I remember, the only one promoting The Wedge for Washington was Black Tulip! Does he not have one nice thing to say of your national capital? I think the monuments are quite nice, and I understand some of the food can be very pleasant. But no, he’s feeling negative about it. I wonder if it’s because of the FAA? Ah, here we go, a fully fledged rant:-
“We are in for a tough haul with the FAA. We’re going into the dark ages. It is all politically motivated. 100 percent political. The Congressional hearings on Eclipse had to do with unions. I am the only one who has the courage to stand up and say this. They’ve had it out [in - ed?] for Hickey and Sabatini. Their cronies, led by Oberstar, sucked up to them. They planted stories with USA Today. It’s all politics. The FAA is unfortunately subject to this. One way to describe it, there are people in government that think the government is the only one capable of doing what’s right and correct. They believe that from a regulatory standpoint, the only people who can truly enforce are government.”
Really? So, EAC were correct and the FAA were wrong? Does that mean that the TC and PC were delivered after political pressure was applied? Lets see how he squares that one.
“We did face challenges with certification. We chose to do a lot of things differently. Eclipse 500 never had an electrical failure. People said we couldn’t build digital electrical system, and now Bombardier is duplicating that system for the Lear 85. John Hickey --who I have more respect for---his comment was to me, “Look Vern, our guys in the field are not the best engineers. We have those people, but you have to remember, the safest word for bureaucrat is no. They’re only good at approving things they’ve seen before.”
So the FAA people in the field have no idea what they are doing. Therefore, they were not qualified to issue the certifications. So the FAA HQ people did it for them. But the FAA are not political. Hang on, The Wedge said they were. I’m confused…
“80 percent of Eclipses are not in air taxi. One of the good things about my departure from the company [I got an Eclipse]. I flew on average 25 hours in the last three months. I just go. Put as much gas in as I can, go as long as I can. The airplane has 300 hours. It just runs. Just get in, start and go. Part of the problem is that I know too much about the airplane. Every time I land somewhere—I was at AOPA talking to Ed Bolen and Phil Boyer--two owners came up to me and thanked me for the airplane. One of the schizophrenic problems that Eclipse has. There is the 5 percent asshole quotient, but owners love them. It does exactly what it says. We screwed up on some things, and some vendors screwed up. There were some problems. But it’s an exceptional airplane. With a good tailwind, you can get 10 miles per gallon. At one airport, an old B17 pilot came up to me and said how the great airplane was. He didn’t know who I was. When I hear things like that, it makes all this worth it.”
This is called MBWA. Steve Jobs did it at Apple before John Scully fired him. It’s short for Management By Walking Around. As far as The Wedge is concerned, everything in the garden is rosy because people he bumps into tell him it is.
(Asked from the floor about the future of Eclipse) “I don’t know. I have zero association with the company today. That is partially their choice, partially my choice. I made decision, some on the board wanted me to stay, I knew it would be like going from captain of the ship to third officer or worse. When I’m not happy, I’m destructive. With my personality, I couldn’t handle that. I’m not good at being Number 2.”
Ask anyone Wedge. You were crap at being ‘Number 1’…
“Why have I been vilified? That’s a tough question. I watched it happen to one of my best friends: Bill Gates. We were playing golf one day, when he was going through all that shit with DOJ. People were saying, “This is a bad, evil person” Bill said to me, “All I thought I was doing was making life easier for people.” I talked to him recently about what happened it to me. The reason I got fired was simple, I pissed off the investors. I stood up to them, didn’t want to do what they wanted to do. When you’re CEO, your job is to lead, to decide. Board approves or disapproves. If they don’t like it, they have one choice: accept it or fire you. I didn’t leave, I got fired. I was going in a direction that the investors didn’t want to go. So they fired me. When it isn’t working, you fire the coach. Why I was vilified? I don’t know. It’s because I’m such a warm, fuzzy person.”
Name dropping was always one of his minor sins, so we’ll let that one go. But false modesty never looks pretty on the Curriculum Vitae.
“I’ve been scoured in the blogosphere, all by people who are “idiots and cowards.” (to quote Sarah Palin) They do it through anonymity. I’ve never shied away from saying “You’re an idiot.” You look at these postings, and they’re all by people who are anonymous. They’re cockroaches trying to hide under rocks.”
Hello, Mr. Wedge, your favorite cockroach here. Are you ‘name calling’ for a reason? Is it because Rich Lucibella stood up to your SLAPP suit and put you back in your box? Do you think, like I do, that the exposure you provided this blog was one of the bad decisions that got you fired? What exactly is your problem with the First Amendment to the Constitution of the United States anyway? I’ve a load of questions, as do a considerable number of reporters I know. Care to answer any of them? Or have you crawled under a rock, grown a beard (it doesn’t suit you, by the way) and hope people forget how you burned a self-confessed ‘billion dollars’ of other peoples’ money? You know where to find me if you want to unburden your tortured soul.
“Eclipse is a FOQA-approved agency. We used that data to identify problems. The Midway throttle problem: massively misreported. It was a failure mode we did not anticipate. When you really slam on the throttles-it took 45 lbs of push. One of the problems Eclipse foisted on itself, engineers happier than a pig in mud that they have so much precision. In the case of the Eclipse, that fault condition--not a failure--latched in 200 milliseconds. We did research turns out on Cessnas FADEC 2 seconds-6 seconds. They latch 50X slower than Eclipse. So the Eclipse did what it was designed to do. Turns into a big deal with NTSB. Emergency press release. By the time it was released--by the way, we had already done that. Sturgell asked Mark R. (NTSB) --WTF?? Mark said, “You know that’s how the game is played.” That’s a direct quote. But when I say it’s all politics, people say I’m a jerk. Personal vilification: something needs to be changed.”
Yes Mr. Wedge, it’s clearly everyone else’s fault. You had no personal responsibility for any of it. People in aviation will be happy to work with you again, I’m sure. As I will, the next time you start to rip people off. And the time after that. And after that. I know you fancy dabbling with nuclear power, but remember that most scientist agree with the following. After you trigger your ‘nuclear winter’ the first life to reappear will be the cockroach.
I’ll be waiting for you.
Shane Price
Proud custodian of Stan’s legacy.
November 2008
Proud custodian of Stan’s legacy.
November 2008
443 comments:
1 – 200 of 443 Newer› Newest»Based on what is stated on this blog, the G1000 idea seems to have merit, particularly if the pitot/AOA probes are swapped out for traditional pitot tubes and AOA transmitters. The simpler air data system seems to be what the Phenom 100 and Mustang are going with.
The G1000 has pressure sensors and analog inputs that would allow for simple pitot tubes and AOA inputs to be used. The standalone air data computers would become redundant -- cost savings galore.
The combination of the proven G1000 and low-risk standard air data inputs would save costs due to the lower costs of the pitot tubes without integrated electronics and the non-digital AOA transmitter. Finally, any residual icing issues with the current air data system may be resolved with a standard pitot tube like those found on King Airs, PC-12s, TBMs, and similar.
Tell me Garmin wouldn't drool over upgrading 250 aircraft. I can imagine some nice price cuts to get into this KNOWN market versus an unknown market like the PiperJet or HondaJet.
Regarding the systems tied into Avio, Garmin could address that or current suppliers may fall into line given the opportunity to upgrade 250 aircraft, assuming a suitably sound financial backer for Eclipse is found.
On second thought, why put the G1000 in there? Let Avidyne back in the game. They know the E500 and they would likely love to even things up with The Wedge. Maybe get L-3 Communications' SmartDeck in the evaluation process and start a bidding war. Could be a win-win for everyone. Except Avio.
Shane,
Your best commentary yet.
I think the Wedge used my LRU to prepare this drivel speech. Was he drunk?
You know the real shame is that the 1-2 Billion that the Wedge blew on a $150 million project, could have probably got the industry a SSBJ if a competant project team had got that money.
Just Zis
I don't think Monsieur Shane is threatening revenge ...
The Wedge said that Anonymous are Cockroaches ...
I don't know about you ...
Fred being my real name ...
Monsieur Shane using his own ...
(i emphasize on "Monsieur" before the Name , some deserve to be called with deference , some will never make it above "toilets worm" )
ps: if it is your real name , and since in some countries , you can sue anyone for anything ...please make a step forward taking yours parents to court , if you are suing Nature , you've got great chances !!! ;-))
Justflyingalong, did you miss the G1000 discusion on the last thread. Forget it. The EA500 systems are so integrated into AvioNfG you can not just rip it out and install the G1000.
The G1000 does not control the electrical buses. It doesn't provide interface buses between throttle quadrants and Fadecs, it doesn't control all the other aircraft systems which AvioNfG does (when it is working).
Tell me Garmin wouldn't drool over upgrading 250 aircraft.
Okay JFA, you asked...
Garmin is not drooling over upgrading 250 Eclipses!
They must see the writing on the wall. They will be the first destination of the Diehards club, Ecorpse Resusitation Ltd, the EA-500 warbirds society etc, when they come begging for a G1000 retrofit.
What benefit does Garmin have from retrofitting into unsupported EA-500's?
The profit on the few sold shipsets vrs the engineering, support and image nightmare of working with the revolving door of clubs and companies which get all starry eyed about resusictation of Ecorpse in the coming years.
If that dodgy avionic's shop in Alaska wants to do the Garmin retrofit, I am sure Garmin would sell them G600's, and a clear interface document.
By the time any outfit gets anywhere close to a certified retrofit STC, years will have passed, and the remaining airworthy fleet will be about 10.
Garmin is doing just fine without Ecorpse.
freedom :
i am sorry to tell you wrong !
Favio NfG N°: whatever being to integrated in EA500 ?
no !
if you go to see Garmin with an endless supply of cash , anything can happen ...! ;-))
i could almost advice Garmin C.E.O. to take the money from owners asking ...
then invoke some third (fourth or fifth) parties problems before the kiss of death ...
they are so used to it , i wonder if it could be any fun for Garmin ...!!
JZGYK,
I've clearly identified myself from day one. I happen to proud of my name.
Are you?
"They’re cockroaches trying to hide under rocks."
If you have English Comprehension issues, I'd be happy to arrange special classes for you. We could start with Rudiments, then Grammar. In the third year we could move on to Syntax and then finish off with some Poetry and Rhetoric.
He was clearly referring to his critics in general and us in particular. What he meant was that everyone on this blog was an insect and implied that we should be exterminated. This is dangerous thinking and leads into dark places.
Why did he say this?
Because he can't handle critical analysis? Because he got fired? Because, by any rational measure, he's failed in business again?
I don't know. He made that speech. I've just deconstructed it in a standard fashion.
He's made several threats, fought a few skirmishes, but he's lost the war. I'm entitled to respond, on behalf of those who's intelligence the man has insulted.
Another part of what he said is worthy of illumination. Remember, he was speaking on the Tuesday after the election, in Florida, one of the 'pivotal' states.
"It’s really scary. Problem is that we have an increasingly uneducated electorate."
So, the people are dumb and have made a mistake. Why? Because HE didn't vote for Obama, and everyone knows HE is always right?
I don't know what you think, but this guy is dangerous.
At the end of the day, the 'simple tool' is a publicity hound and possibly an egomaniac. Those who support him are in danger of being tarred with the same brush.
Let me conclude by saying that calling me a cockroach was a mistake. Unlike The Wedge, I rarely make promises I can't keep.
I never 'threaten'.
I just 'do'.
Try it sometime. It's good for the soul.
Shane
Perhaps One of the Reasons Eclipse and MyGuide are in Trouble is that they Spend Money on Dutch Basketball Teams
What about your promises? Why don't you give us more of the story you promised about Peg and Mike's firing? Or how about filling us in about the E500 being grounded on Friday?
I'm not sure what you are referring to with the grounding, but I remember Shane doing a public correction regarding the alleged executive firings, so to my knowledge Shane did keep his promises.
Great post, Shane. All but the parts in italic! Those didn't make nearly as much sense.
Vern said, "I was at AOPA talking to Ed Bolen and Phil Boyer--two owners came up to me and thanked me for the airplane."
I can vouch for that part :)
Ken
Vern said It’s not the first failure in my life, and probably won’t be the last.
Amen!
Wedge, self awareness is the first step to improvement.
Please don't get into nuclear power.
Shane,
nice - better interesting - to read the wedge's words.
The wedge never realized, that a good fundraiser must not be a good investor or even a good CEO, who doesn't make a marathon all the time but takes time to ponder.
He needs a good friend - non someone who gives him some m$ and smiles....
Anyhow as you stated this is not a blog on medical stuff!
Julius
So has ISS jumped ship, or was the quarterly report referring to then terminating some other high value GA program they are involved in?
Could someone (Ken?) please detail exactly what it was that ISS was tasked with in AVIONfG? I belive it was the screens and the integration. What does the term integration mean in detail? Who has the software source code IP?
That's right...
Shane said the Eclipse fleet would be AOG on Thursday (today!). But it's not. In fact, there are 4 in the air as I write this--which is 4 more than the number of airborne Mustangs!
Ken
From now on, I'll refer to Shane as "Vern Jr."
Very funny. You want things both ways. First you accuse Shane of breaking his promise to provide updates and then when it is shown to you that he kept his promise, you complain about him for doing so.
Shane,
Remember, in the land of the Die Hards, anything we say can be taken literally, "you said the fleet would be AOG from thursday".
I understood your insinuations to Ken over the last few days to mean that you both had cought wind of another major hick-up coming down the pipeline. Since ISS's quarterly report idicates them terminating a big GA program. I am guessing this is what you were hinting at, and that Eclipse has just lost it's display and AVIO NfG integration vendor.
That this does not immediately ground Kens plane, is obvious. That it is a huge issue should be equally obvious.
Luckily Ken's plane is blessed with 100% dispatch reliablity, so the loss of probably the single most critical vendor is not going to affect him.
Fred,
Do your mates at EASA know about ISS?
JZGYK,
You are correct about our naughty Irish Blogger:
Cock up's
Shane....................Vern....
"Fired" Peg/Mike.......Crap Plan
...........................Crap Execution
...........................Blew a billion
...........................P/O investors
...........................P/O workers
...........................P/O customers
...........................P/O suppliers
...........................P/O authorities
...........................Got fired
Shane you had better get cracking I you want to live up to your new tag of Vern Jr :)
You know what is also cute? You guys say all of this stuff and tout it as fact. I will say what I have been saying from day 1: "You guys are just a bunch of guys on the internet speculating about something you have no direct connection with." I mean even the "all-knowing" Shane has a source that he gets a large percentage of his information from, and this "working pilot" is generally full of crap. Heck, he didn't even change his name to "Unemployed pilot" when referencing him. You know what? I can find tons of people that will try to verbally bash evey aircraft in the sky right now. Everybody can have something to say about a plane and that in fact is due to the First Amendment. But I will tell you what, there is another thing called Libel, and Shane that was pretty much what your whole last post was. I will also admit the airplane is not perfect, but guess what, none of them are. And until you know-it-alls get some actual expirenece, bersides either A) living vicariously through others or B) Posting links to other peoples work, your opinions are pretty much worth nothing.
In defense of some of you though, I know that there are some people here that have business expirience and it shows. But guess what guys, Eclipse is in a tough spot financially, not anything people don't know already.
Lastly, some of you have made some play on words at my "blog name," in addition you guys have started calling Vern "Wedge." Well guess what I can make up names too. And the simplest tool that some other primates use is a stick. Shane instead of calling you "Vern Jr" I think "Stick" would be more fitting.
Keep showing your true colors guy, and have a Guinness. It might calm you down, unless you are an angry drunk...
Besides being his first sanctioned public rant since getting pink-slipped, Vern made it clear that he IS and always will be the Ambassador of OPM ... Other Peoples Money.
You know Vern ... when times get tought, people cling to guns, religion, and blogs.
"The airplane doesn’t make a flip bit of difference.”
unless its just the wrong plane... in this case, I agree with Vern, his plane does not make a difference to air taxi.
The idea of scale is nice... he admits its about scale. Why not explain how the eclipse plane will get to sclae, any time soon?
This would have at least been constructive.
Also, its nice to hear he spent $1B... it's a lot more, BTW.... but he should be positive and constructive and explain how he convinced investors and politicians to provide capital, when his plane required scale, and for the large part of this scale, the plane doesn't matter - as he put it.
He is correct - value is the key. Unfortunately, I think this is the lesson he learned (for $1B plus plus)... for the car traveler... the ea-50 is fighting a really tough battle. Add props, and its still tougher.
- you do not save a lot of time comapred to props, and the props are a lot less expensive.
- you spend a heck of a lot to relieve yourself of the 3.5-5 hour car trip... and when you get to the destination airport, you need a car!
Anyhow, I think Vern is an amazing guy, and he did raise around $2B ... including the depositors money and other monies, IIRC.
Its nice to see him finally admit a lot of things, albeit, in a very unconstructive manner - but he's angry, and he even admits, he's destructive when he's angry.
'nuff said.
1- low price requires scale
2- scale is only available through a professionally flown transport service that appeal on VALUE to many folks now outside private aviation - until flyer's ed is available with driver's ed in high school...
3- cars and props compete for the ea-50 market very well, on VALUE.
4- it 's not about the plane - unless the plane delivers very compelling time and money savings for the really short trip... the EA50 failed to deliver this value, so its not about THAT plane.
Pretty strong eulogy
Finally, for a guy who took $1B and 13 years to learn that its not about the plane...and the value needs to be there... he shouldn't really cast aspersions on the "uneducated" public officials coming into office - I don;t think. It's what most people said about him - he did not know what he was doing, he was an outsider...
I wonder if they will fail as miserably as he did? My sense is, they actually have more directly relevant expereince than Vern - and he's pointing fingers at them... just like Vern (with no expereince raised $1B+++), the recently elected neophytes rasied more votes than the competition and won the election... perhaps he should give them credit for this acomplishment, just like he's trying to take credit for his...
results spoke for Venr and they will speak for themselves.
You guys say all of this stuff and tout it as fact. I will say what I have been saying from day 1: "You guys are just a bunch of guys on the internet speculating about something you have no direct connection with."
Not according to Eclipse. I guess you missed the lawsuit. Besides, you don't have to be an Eclipse employee to see that Eclipse had had and continues to have a flawed business model. I'm still waiting to hear how Eclipse/ETIRC is going to sustinably produce and sell between 500 and 1000+ units per year. Do you really think only Eclipse owners and employees can validly question Eclipse when Eclipse says the Russian factory alone will produce 800 units per year?
EclipsePilotOMSIV,
What you say about us being a bunch of guys speculating would be true, except you forget one little point. The Wedge felt we were accurate enough to try and get a court stop stop us unveiling the truth.
The Stick is good. I was thinking more about Pieper as the Lever :)
"You guys are just a bunch of guys on the internet speculating about something you have no direct connection with."
buddy, I havebeen saying this all along. Infact, at one point I actually wrote a disclaimer next to every one of my posts saying it is just my uninformed opinion based on what I read and see in the media and hear from folks in the industry... also just their opinions.
So what?
All this means is, if you pay enough attention, understand what is being said and apply some common sense and industyr expereince (in general) you can see the reality.
My personal opinion is, this is a bsic case of a very talented money-raiser, coming into a new industry with no expereince, really, and getting enamored with some technology demonstrators (engines, avionics, SFW, the Vjet-II...) and thinking he is smarter than everyone who tells him - careful, this stuff is not ready for prime time, or that plane is not going to deliver the required value for your ROI, or this is going to take a lot longer than you think, or the market is too small to deliver the scale you need.
This is what I've learned on this blog, and from reading up on EAC. Do I think I am 100% right, no - but I am entitled to my opinion.
Prove my statements here wrong, and I promise, I will learn from it.
Great observation, thanks.
"I can find tons of people that will try to verbally bash evey aircraft in the sky right now."
But not enough apparently to warrant bashing...if so...where is THEIR blog?
Keep up the good work Shane!
I don't like proving I was right.
Too often....
Last week I speculated that this headline would cause a reaction:-
I suspect that the 'tone' might get a little shrill from The Faithful after I put it up....
I rest my case.
Ken,
I'm happy you're happy. I just interested in how long you will fly without required software updates, which WILL cease when EAC goes under. Lets look again at what I actually wrote, as opposed to what you claim I wrote.
Ken is remarkably calm for someone who knows his aircraft, along with the rest of the fleet, will for all practical purposes be AOG later this week.
Followed by
I apologize if my suggestion that the FPJ fleet will be AOG on Thursday upset anyone. Even if I'm proved correct.
Both of us know it's only a matter of time. Just like DayJet going bankrupt, The Wedge getting fired, depositors getting shafted etc etc.
JZGYK,
I did not say Peg was gone. This, again, is what I actually wrote:-
2. Scuttlebut says that Peg has had enough. Can't say I blame her, as I think she's been a bit of a 'patsy' for some of the others. Expect her to resign to 'spend more time with her family' or some such excuse.
This was under a caption, in bold, which said 'Snippet Time'. I described it as 'scuttlebut' and would expect that anything I give you under 'Snippet Time' is treated as, well, blog chatter.
Nothing more, nothing less.
You are also correct about name calling. However, the term Wedge is a Blog Rule (in fact, it's officially Blog Rule Number 2) which I must abide by.
Especially since I made it so...
Clearly, since you have reading difficulties, I'll remind you of it.
BLOG RULE NUMBER TWO*
Vern Raburn = Wedge.
The simplest tool known to mankind.
From now on, the word 'Wedge' will replace the words 'Vern' or 'Raburn' on the blog.
In the same comment, I posted why I've stipulated this new rule.
I'm fed up being insulted by this 'idiot' and thank everyone in advance for their co-operation.
I'm glad we understand each other now.
While we're on such friendly terms, could you do something about that identity you're using? 'just zis guy, ya know?' is an insult to the memory of Douglas Adams.
And a pain to type....
Oh, and Ken can you answer a question I've asked a few times now, please?
Were you one of those 'extracting' FPJs from GNV last Friday 'just in case'?
I'm not sure if Mike's thank you note on E5C covers all those who did.
Shane
Vern's choice of words were poorly chosen and inappropriate for a public forum.
For that matter, so was the choice to grow a lot of facial hair. Not a big hit with the women.
Well, Shane, you did write, "Ken is remarkably calm for someone who knows his aircraft, along with the rest of the fleet, will for all practical purposes be AOG later this week.
...but of course that's not true. I'm flying today, and everything is current. You were wrong.
Honestly, your source isn't all that great. I appreciated your private email to me weeks ago telling me that employee's checks had bounced....until it turned out your source was flatout wrong, and nobody had a bounced check.
And then when the company did miss payroll last week, I had to read about it in the newspaper! Your source didn't know anything about it.
Not that we don't appreciate your efforts; we all do. Just we also understand your reliability scale has been dropping lately.
Ken
You know, I have also never seen a EA-500, and I only have second hand information from the internet, but my observations based on pulling together this information was enough for the Wedge to think I was an insider leaking his secrets.
You are correct that you could find people to criticise any A/C. However you don't see an Embraercritic blog, or a Cessnacritic blog, or a Pipercritc blog or a Diamondcritic blog do you. Why not? They all make make mistakes. Their A/C all have weaknesses. Some of their designs are better than others. What are they doing different from Ecorpse?
I would sum it up in the word integrity.
At the latest the Wedge slapp suite gives me a stake. I am one of those experienced avition professionals who feels this whole farce is a blight on the industry I have worked in all my professional life.
If you feel strongly enough about one of the other manufacturers, start a Pipercritic blog. Why are you here and not there?
I am one of those experienced avition professionals who can't even spell it :)
I am certain you are correct on any of these specific items, Ken.
We here make all sorts of errors. Unfortunately there is a strong wisdom of crowds effect at work here. Although there is a lot of dross on this blog (my apologies for that which came from me), we were still able to nail the exact number of Partial Eclipses "completed" and delivered in 2007, at a time when the CEO was still forecasting a number 4X reality.
Ken, you are not grounded today. You will probably not be grounded tomorrow. Do you want us to do a blog vote on when you will be grounded, so you can see the wisdom of crowds again to full effect?
Sooner (my guess) or later your EA-500 "asset" will be grounded and worthless. You have been on this blog long enough to see that the pyschological effect that pessimists are normally more accurate in their predictions than optimists is holding true here.
You think he was pissed you were leaking secrets????? Dude this whole blog is LIBEL! And yeah that is grounds to go to court with someone. If you would disinform people about my business I would be pissed to, you bet I would sue you. I don't agree with the choice to sue a bunch of bloggers, but still... Stop acting like oh he sued us, so we must be right. Yeah I could make up 100 different things about a company and some of it may be truth. And I am sure you guys did leak some facts out there along with all the BS. Congratulations you guys, you are good speculators (with the occasional inside info from a disgruntled employee or two, which I might add makes that info a bit unreliable to begin with)! I mean I have seen emotional reactions from employees who got laid off, and first thing they did was come post on this blog in anger, trying to get back at big bad Eclipse. Lets talk to all the Cessna employees that got laid off last week and see if they have great things to say about Cessna.
PS it just takes one asshole to start a blog to shit talk a company. Congratulations you deserve a Nobel Peace Prize! People will fear and attack what is different, nice job picking up on that.
Been away on the IS&S investor call …
Besides IS&S unfaltering use of the term “VLJ OEM”, the name Eclipse didn’t come up until the Q&A.
After tangentially discussing issues related to backlog and the $6M reserve, and some typical dialog regarding “no expectation of recovering those funds” (as any CFO would have to list the EAC receivables), only when a question was directly asked about the EAC contract did IS&S use their name.
So … what we (believe that we) know … have to make sure that the defamation police don’t misconstrue intent …
The AvioNG contract “at a high level” is still in place.
IS&S has suspended their delivery of AvioNG systems (not necessarily a big deal if there is stock on hand to fill the trickle of production and spares)
IS&S has suspended a ~$175K near-term Non-Recurring Engineering (NRE) expectation (that has been construed as EASA required fixes to AvioNG 1.5)
IS&S will not experience any significant RIF, and will move their efforts to their Part 25 customers, and the new avionics introduced at NBAA.
Let the speculation begin (in addition to any speculation included above)…
To mollify FJT and posse … Defamation does not exist where truth prevails.
By the way have you guys ever been in an FBO and talked to other pilots? You will hear aircraft tash talk all day if you sit there long enough. Maybe you guys should get a reason to go to an FBO. One of the funniest things I have heard there is that "Piper planes are made by Mickey Mouse (then the 'expirenced avaition professional' started singing the Mickey Mouse song, later he got back into the Lear he was flying and that was that) But the guys sitting next to use said "Man that guys was kind of an asshole" and he walked over to his Cessna Citation II.
JZGYK?
Nice selective use of Google.
Given that, is this you ?
http://www.gweep.net/~slarti/
http://slarti.livejournal.com/
You think he was pissed you were leaking secrets????? Dude this whole blog is LIBEL! And yeah that is grounds to go to court with someone. And yeah that is grounds to go to court with someone. If you would disinform people about my business I would be pissed to, you bet I would sue you.
Actually I raised this issue at the time of the lawsuit. Though Vern publicly claimed the lawsuit was about "lies," that wasn't at all what the lawsuit was about actually. Instead it was about "truths." Do you want links to the lawsuit so that you can see that the lawsuit had nothing at all to do with libel, but rather quite the contrary?
I don't agree with the choice to sue a bunch of bloggers, but still... Stop acting like oh he sued us, so we must be right.
Eclipse said so and Eclipse said nothing in the court documents about libel, defamation, etc. If on the other hand you are saying Eclipse lied in their legal filings, I don't see what you hope to gain with that.
People will fear and attack what is different, nice job picking up on that.
Simply complaining about this blog doesn't address Eclipse's money-losing business model. Do you think that if you complain enough about this blog, Eclipse will sustainably produce and sell 500+ units per year?
EclipsePilotOMSIV, didn't your Mum tell you, the truth always hurts.
It's not libel to call a public figure a Wedge.
Defamation does not exist where truth prevails - well put Zed.
Was this blog the pin that popped the wedges $2 Billion bubble? Even if we would like to think we helped, the fact is that the Blog didn't do anything except shine a light on Ecorpse.
We didn't do the certification flight tests over the NM desert, and then find out that it rains and freezes in New england.
We didn't do a bait and switch on suppliers, promising 1000+ units a year volume, twisting arms for low price and then only buying 100/year.
We didn't put brakes for a 4500lb A/C on a 6000lb A/C.
We didn't think it was a good idea to cross control the throttles.
We didn't try to completely integrate all systems to the point that we lost track of the FAR requirements and couldn't get certification.
We didn't hide the fact that the Williams would not be adequate, while cashing 60% payments.
We didn't pull strings with corrupt High level FAA appointees, to override the lower level staff of professionals.
We didn't go sailing.
We didn't spend $2 billion on a half arsed idea.
We didn't sell planes to ourself to pad the order book.
We didn't hire the manager who said "the quality of the planes is really crap".
We didn't make the A/P disconnect at the first sign of turbulence.
We didn't AD the jet for VFR only.
Which stage of grief is blame?
JZGYK,
Ha!
Well done, but wrong 'Shane Price'.
Sadly, my criminal career ended when I was 8.
I never took up cigars afterwards, as they made me choke....
Try the printing industry. You'll find me here, without too much trouble.
Shane
Here's some facts direct from Eclipse. You can see Eclipse never in court accused those on this blog of libel, defamation, etc. By Eclipse's own statements, this blog is accurate:
Eclipse Complaint
Eclipse Lawsuit Memorandum
Vern Raburn Declaration
Raymond Barratt Declaration
Eclipse V Does Legal Docs
So readers of this blog can see for themselves and make up their own minds as to claims of libel.
EclipsePilotOMSIV,
this is not blog where pseudo achievements are touted.
Perhaps it is a miracle for you how a normal non FPJ-pilot/owner could derive from
-the wedge's last year Saturday late night sales show
- simple calculations base on EAC's
and easy available figures
that EAC was close to BK.
Perhaps you agree that the loss of the biggest customer is nothing a president of a company has to think about ("deferred orders").
Perhaps you anticipated that a 30% price increase will be interpreted as a good inviting signal for new investors.
Perhaps you remember that EAC showed a table with its objectives and achievements - it's gone.
If you believe that more than 500 a/cs per annum will be built in both in ABQ and in Ulyanowsk within 2, 3 years - look out for the EAC/ETIRC support blog!
I do believe that Ken enjoyed his flight to Mexico (assuming he was not thinking about EAC's future during the flight).
Think about it!
Simple question - you know it: Why should any investor put +200M$ (or +300M$ including EA400) into EAC?
Julius
Freedom :
after reading your question , i called back my buddies ...
Easa cert.on Friday ? answer : "HA HA HA ... very highly unlikely ...!"
well he made quite sure that i understood EASA is NOT , ABSOLUTELY NOT FAA !
to make sure , i was getting his point , he explained me that even the Number of staff you employ is one of the parameters taken in line to charge for a Certification ...
so with recent events in ABQ , only the bill of what is owed to EASA would require a Rocket-scientist to be calculated ...!
as for Monsieur Shane stating that EASA price are nothing as UNEXPENSIVE : some should take into consideration that ONE HOUR of EASA is charged 225 Euros (+/- 282 $)
the funny thing : if a guy from EASA is to fly to ABQ ( for easiness lets say PARIS/NEW-YORK/AlbU)
flight time between CDG to JFK : 6 hours =
6 X 225 = 1350 Euros
waiting time in JFK = 2 Hours :
225 X 2 = 450 Euros
lunch in JFK : one hourtimeequi. allowance :
225 euros
flight time to ABQ 4 Hours
225 X 4 = 900 Euros
Diner , again one hour equivalent
225 Euros
Hotel : Two hours equivalent
225 X = 450 Euros /person
total for ONE person allowance
3375 Euros /4425 $ FIRST DAY !
the best of the story : it is ONLY Pocket Money expenditure , they do not have worked yet ...!!
THEY NEVER TRAVEL ALONE !!!
EAc/Etirc able to afford such ...
in their dreams !!
Blogger fred said...
i forgot :
the 3375 Euros is without actual costs of traveling ...(plane ticket, since it is charged to customers = why being stingy ?)
try to have an European thingies satff travel in less than Business-class :
you'll end-up in deepshit ...
the best :
when the guy will be sleeping at night ...
YOU WILL BE CHARGED 225 Euros for EVERY hour of SLEEP ...!!
PS it just takes one asshole to start a blog to shit talk a company. Congratulations you deserve a Nobel Peace Prize! People will fear and attack what is different, nice job picking up on that.
I've been called worse by people better than you so you know where you can stuff it.
In 2006 when this epic began,it was Vern's goal was to use the airplane's unreasonable price and performance goals to:
1. Claim to have a multi-billion dollar order book.
2. Start producing airplanes.
3. Issue a google sized IPO.
4. Cash out.
5. Walk away.
In April of 2006 it was obvious to me that the airplane would not do what they were claiming and that the company could not recover the development costs or even make it to a positive cash flow situation.
The owner of Cox Machine, one of my customers at the time, had come to my shop a few days earlier and asked if we had capacity to supply tooling to support an expected sheet metal contract from Eclipse.
I pleaded with Steve Cox not to get in bed with Eclipse and went into detail with every reason I could think of. He took the bait anyway and I refused his work. The talk of 1,000 units per year in this industry is as seductive as purchasing a sub-million dollar jet was to Ken and his fellow owners and owners-in-waiting.
Knowing that verbal arguments did not work and the concern Vern's public relations Juggernaut was setting up to scalp the unsuspecting investing public prompted me to learn one Sunday morning on how to start a blog.
The first to be sent a link were the two main cheerleaders for Eclipse. Capt Zoom and Forbes pulbisher Rich Karlgaard.
It turned into a battle royal with old Zoomy. I had violated Florida Statute xxx.xxxx.xx, threatened he and his family, he was calling the proper authorities and would file suit with his attorneys blah, blah, blah...
Rich was certainly more civil and we exchanged some nice e-mails. But in the end, I asked him what advice would he give to his rich Aunt if she told him she was thinking about investing his inheritance in the new Eclipse IPO.
Rich replied, "Always looking for the dark side, eh Stan."
Yep Rich, you were probably right.
Jesus Christ ....reading all the pissy comments from everyone is like traveling back in time to the 7th grade. Sure, this may be "speculation" ....but I trust MY source: my fiancee' working at the Starbucks closest to the EAC campus.
She tells me yesterday that her regular engineer customer from Eclipse is mad as hell. He tells her that NO ONE is working. Maybe only 30min a day, the bare minimum. EVERYONE is there just socializing or surfing the net looking for other jobs. Not all the employees were paid on Tuesday. And the mood there is somber, waiting for the axe to fall again. This guy knows he won't get any severance or his vacation time paid out to him WHEN ECLIPSE FOLDS for good.
Rumor is that EAC will screw everyone over by Thanksgiving. No personal lubricant; just bend over and grab your ankles. The grunts are pissed at how their great leaders, Peg, Mike, and Roel, have treated everyone since August. I'm sure all of this is great for product quality.
KEN:
So happy to see that you have a great plane that you love to fly everywhere. But this business model is DEAD just like the General Motors biz model. With GM, its only taken 30-40 years to get to this point. Who wants to buy a $30k car from a company begging for Govt help? How can any rational person buy a plane from an under-capitalized company? My silly letter to Warren Buffett - begging him to buy Eclipse - has had no reply. Hmmm.... I suspect it would be better for him to buy GM or Ford before considering EAC...
Ken, please try to think about all the blue-collar grunts making $12 or $13/hour that worked their asses off to build your plane. They will soon be collecting unemployment (like ME) while you get to fly to Mexico. Even though I have no real money, even **I** try to not buy stuff from companies that have a reputation for screwing their workers. Maybe a bankruptcy judge will decide what happens to JetComplete and your warranty. My contact at the NTSB said that TC could be sold as an Eclipse asset to a new company, BUT NOT THE PC. Eventually you will need an A&P to fix your plane ....and that person will likely NOT be an Eclipse employee. Maybe your plane won't be AOG, but I suspect it wont't be cheap to keep it flying. Sure, that is just speculation on my part. As Dennis Miller says, "that's just my opinion ....I could be wrong."
Didn't Vern say something like 'the skys would be dark with all the VLJs'? Funny, I see nothing but blue out my window...
E.D.T.
Monsieur Stan ...
(i repeat , [an effect of age?] SOME peoples DESERVE to HAVE Monsieur BEFORE their name ...)
i bow in Gratefulness for starting this whole rebellion ...
(you probably don't see it , but my forehead is touching the floor ...;-) )
I TOTALLY AGREE with your point 1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5 !
definitely something PLANNED FROM DAY ONE !
including the DayJet scam ...
only a band of "whatever name you think of" (some are going to say that i lack manners ...!) getting together and being good old buddies with one an other , they tried to work out a "good old internet days business plan "
(this is the only explanation i found to put some logic into this mess ...)
remember those sunny times , when peoples speaking of profits and R.O.I. were depicted as the ones who couldn't understand the beauty of NEW-Economy ... (like if anyone could teach a new trick to an old monkey ....!)
it has been the same all along , PLEASE someone or some entity other there ...
put a final point to this madness !
(we are going to stop having to laugh so much about a few guys who , i hope , have only been played and blinded by their own greed and self-sufficiency ...)
after all , even Horses have to be shot at some point !!!
EDT
Sometimes more is learned over a $5 latte than one would expect.
The was a joke about Grumman prevalent in USN/USMC aviation acquisition circles back in the '80s and '90s after the Gulfstream and GA piston lines were sold off ...
"Grumman loses money on every airplane, but still tries to make it up in volume"
Seems that the Wedge and the Bored of Defectors have been following that model by mistake.
If so, they could start producing mail delivery vehicles, pontoon boats, and storage containers with their excess line capacity just like The Iron Works did.
No wait ... the other side of the DoT (the one side not yet pissed off by EAC) would never risk our mail to Friction Stir Welded vehicles ...
Irony can be so ironic at times.
EDT
GM is not dead ...!
they just want to have a share of the cake before it is too late ...
why ?
yesterday a German Firm (solarworld) offered GM 1 Billion Euros Cash immediately for the OPEL car plants ...
GM turned them down !
so , it look like a beggar sleeping in the rough you offer food in winter , and tell you : "i would prefer a T-bone !"
even if one B euros is probably only a fraction of the "price" , is this time to be picky ?
especially if at the same time , they ask for 25 Billions $ of tax-payers money ...
a share of the cake , i tell you ...
Yet more lawsuits against Eclipse:
GMI First, Inc. v. Eclipse Aviation, Corp.
DBL, Inc. v. Eclipse Aviation Corporation
I'm not quite sure what the GMI case is about as it is listed as an insurance contract case rather than a breach of contract case.
"Always looking for the dark side, eh Stan?"
It ain't just Stan.
Call me an old cynic that has been in the aviation business too long, but when the answers to valid questions are met with replies like "You just don't understand the new paradigm" or "you are just an old dinosaur stuck in you're old ways", I start checking to see if my wallet is still there.
I can't be that dumb.....I saw this financial meltdown coming three years ago, and converted all my stucks, etc. to cash in June 2007. (I'm not braggin', just sayin')
Maybe it comes from being in the business long enough to see what can happen, if nobody pays attention to the details. Or even worse, the person in charge knows so little about what he is doing, that he can't even forsee the problems, much less develop a coherent game plan to address them.
My initial reaction, upon hearing what Wedge's background is, was something to the effect "He'd better not try to incorporate Microsoft's way of doing business into an aviation program".
(My perception of Microsoft's business plan:
-Develop a product
-Throw it out on the market.
-Let your customers be the reliability engineers, and find all the problems.)
Hint to anyone trying to get approval for ANYTHING, be it FAA certification, or even a sign off from your inspector at the Repair Station you work at......If you are trying to sell something that is "different", you had best start "selling" your proposal far enough ahead of time to have all the questions answered before the inspector has to put pen to paper.
Just dumping a load of crap into a guy's lap, and saying "Here, buy this off, and I need it ASAP...." NEVER works. Especially when their questions are answered with "Well, take my word for it, we know what we are doing....."
It's a bit suprising (or perhaps disapointing) that the "W" would make such comments in public. It is also odd that he wasn't bound to some "gag" or silence period in his severance.
What gives one a chill is the statement:
"When I’m not happy, I’m destructive."
I know many talented and professional people built this plane, but this is a terrible thing to display in public and might make any businessman very apprehensive about flying or being a passenger in an airplane produced under this kind of judgment.
I'm still waiting for Stan to be proven wrong. Could be a long wait.
News tip for Capt Zoom....Hawker Beechcraft chief executive Schuster to retire.
Joe ...
you've been right !
today i had a very short argument with a colleague ( i don't give a damn about him , his late 50's never been really any good , etc ...)
he complained to me that i said to a friend that i will retire next year ...
he told me off , saying that in this time of difficulties , i should be ashamed of not thinking about the one , like him who have lost hundreds of thousands ...
(which is wrong = i pity the ones who had only "hundreds" to loose !)
well , after 2 or 3 minutes of this monologue , i got fed-up :
i just told him :
"when you were using your mouth , i used my brain ! now get lost !"
if only peoples could remember simples rules :
scam have ALWAYS 3 main characters =
Too GOOD to be true !
Crooks always look and sounds very good !
it is such a great opportunity , you cannot afford to let it pass !
Stan and others.
Thanks for your supporting posts.
By now everyone should have realized that I was determined to 'stick it' to the faithful. What was said by their former icon had to be put on the record, somewhere. I knew they would hate to see it, and be annoyed with my comments.
I also felt the need to stick a few pins in a well known ego...
I'm still surprised that that speech was made, in that manner. At the time, the mainstream media picked on the 'juicy bits' but what got to me was the mindset behind it.
Not one word of apology to the depositors who are waiting for their money. A complete lack of respect for suppliers, in fact the bit I left out was just plain wrong about Williams, and backhanded about P&W. Finally, what he said about raising the 'billion dollars' was, well, unbelievable.
The problem with such a 'mindset' is that it becomes cultural. Roel will find it almost impossible to stamp it out at EAC, at least within those who worked closely with The Wedge.
EAC senior personnel seem to EXPECT a bailout when they screw things up. Well, I have news for the faithful.
The party is over. Even as we write the vultures are circling and the lights are dimming.
And his next big business idea?
Nuclear power...
Shane
Nice job "sticking it" to us, Stick. You really are a very wonderful guy who can post an interview and comment on it. Dude honestly I thought it was going to be a little better than that. Weak.
National Security Opportunity !!
Send The Wedge to build a nuclear program for Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
He could blow through a few billion Rials and have nothing tangible to show for it.
Maybe he can convert the FSW machines into centrifuges.
Nice job "sticking it" to us, Stick.
Sometimes when you shoot the messenger, the messenger shoots back (not that I recommend that).
"Next big business idea? Nuclear Power"
Ain't gonna happen......if he thought the FAA was full of people who didn't get his "vision", wait until the decendents/protoges of Hyman Rickover start stomping a mudhole in his a##. :)
It will be solar power.....mark my word. It's perfect for his "skill set":
-No regulation/standards to speak of
-Fuzzy understanding of the scientific and engineering problems.
-It's "green" technology.....no expense too great in an effort to "save the planet"
-The Silicon Valley types have had a Jones for it for years, he knows how to speak their language.
-One of those technologies that will "revitalize the USA"
The next great "bubble", IMO. Get in and get "yours", while the gettin' is good.
Just once, I'd like to see a representative of a company in a business like this:
-Under-promise
-Over-deliver
Or else, announce a breakthrough in converting verbal B.S. into energy. The good old USA would become an energy exporter again if that happened.
I found out what the GMI First lawsuit is about. It is someone suing for a refund for a single aircraft, but they put down $950K, so it is like six regular depositor lawsuits. What happened was that they were one of the ones who took Eclipse up on their special offer to buy one of 16 DayJet delivery positions. They might just have a case since Eclipse revised the delivery date from December 2008 to 3Q 2009, which is more than 180 days - and a revised delivery schedule greater than 180 days qualifies for a refund. However, regardless of how strong their legal case is, I think they'll have a hard time seeing their $950K.
Shane,
Check your email. You may be making a HUGE post tomorrow.
There's really not much left to report on Eclipse.
In a way, it is depressing for me to watch it go through a slow and painful death. Diehards trying to keep the dream alive, critics zipping up the body bag.
Look at the market - does anyone really think Eclipse can survive in this environment?
Sorry to see so many people gambled and lost on this company. The existing E500's will probably fly for awhile, but one by one they are going to go AOG.
What a nightmare.
You are correct that you could find people to criticise any A/C. However you don't see an Embraercritic blog, or a Cessnacritic blog, or a Pipercritc blog or a Diamondcritic blog do you. Why not?
Because this was the ONLY high-profile, well-funded, airplane program from a non-traditional aviation player - i.e. Vern et al.
That REALLY PISSED OFF people that thought "HOW DO THEY DARE", starting out with Stan (whom I believe got rebuffed early on by Eclipse).
All perfectly natural and understanding.
Some, like me, understood from the outset that Eclipse and the EA500 were a long shot, and had a 1 in 10 chance of succeding at best. But also appreciated the fact that it is healthy to have outside blood, outside ideas (EVEN IF PROVEN WRONG) coming in to a stale industry segment - yes the $1-$1.5M pressurized GA segment was dead and vacant.
Others, just had a visceral reaction - all things Eclipse are bad.
Others had a rosy outloog - all things Eclipse are great.
Those are ALL the ingredients you need for a long running Blog soapopera.
The E5C should get hot on securring that $1.9M in "obsolete inventory" from IS&S.
At the COGS number, there are a bunch of shipsets of spares there.
FreedomsJamtarts said...
I'm still waiting for Stan to be proven wrong. Could be a long wait.
Stan had been proven wrong again and again. His principal arguments were that there were things critically wrong with the airframe and that Eclipse could never be certified, could never meet the performance targets, could not be produced. HE was wrong on all of those.
Eclipse's downfall are totally and completely centered on avionics.
Leo.
EclipsePilotOMSIV,
You really are a very wonderful guy who can post an interview and comment on it.
Is it just me, or is every single one of the faithful in need of English lessons?
It was not an 'interview', it was a transcript of the closing address.
Read a little more carefully my friend, before you hit the 'Publish Your Comment' button.
Which reminds me, since Ken is so reluctant to answer, did he, or did he not help yourself and Mike Press extract the 5 FPJ's from the EAC facility at GNV last Friday and Saturday.
Your posts on E5C were not very clear on the matter.
But then it's 'form' over there to be a bit vague...
By the way Mike, how are those newsletters coming along? You know, those missives which predicted an ever upward trajectory for the value of the positions you were selling.
Just curious...
Shane
There's really not much left to report on Eclipse
Actually going forward I would expect there to be much more to report rather than much less to report. As the legal cases start, lots more can come out and there's much more to Eclipse than just the legal filings, depos, etc. Congress also could act for instance and there's many other things.
Eclipso,
Thanks
Shane
BAron,
true, true...
I also think the reason for the visceral reaction to Eclipse was in reaction to Vern's visceral attitudes and comments about the industry.
Its one thing to be a self proclaimed maverick and revolutionary, its another to be a disrespectful blow hard about it.
Also, lying doesn't really win friends... those who bought the mischaracterizations hook-line-and-sinker were proclaimed "die hards" by Vern... for a reason.
Anyhow, I think VErn was the problem regarding how distasteful his antics were. H is still at it, too.
He could easily refrain from the nasty comments regarding the industry, and even us... but he can't help himself... even at an industry conference.
One might ask why he can;t just be classy and factual about the whole expereince, explain what he learned and how he sees the future of an industry he helped creat for the last 13 years really...
Why would Russ Meyers tell investors not to invest in Eclipse?
- becasue he thought it was a dumb investment... He was right.
If Vern was polite, perhaps Russ would have explained "why" to him... Instead Vern is just mad at Russ, and still talking about it today.
I think VErn is just mad, becasue Russ was RIGHT.
B95
This blog, like other critical blogs, was created and sustained by various people with various criticisms of the company and product which are the subject of the blog. While EAC's derisive language towards the industry may have been a part of the genesis of the blog, I don't think that would be sufficient.
I can't shake the much-cited stunt flight with the Williams engine that sent millions to EAC or the arbitrary calling of 6 month deposits when there was obviously (obvious to EAC, that is) no chance of delivery within that time. These gave rise to ethical indignation and ethical indignation can generate a critical blog in any industry whether or not the subject is acting arrogant.
Dashed dreams will motivate critics. Anyone who has been told that he can get a great little jet with all modern electronics for $837,500 is bound to be disappointed when realizes that he can actually get a half-good jet with 1990s electronics for $2.3 million. Dashed dreams are not specific to arrogant aviation companies.
Why is there no pipercritic or diamondcritic, etc.? I would say its because there is no unethical behavior and no dashed dreams. You are correct that these companies are not arrogant, but I don't think that arrogance alone would bring forth a critics blog
"I'm still waiting for Stan to be proven wrong"
well, here's the rub.
He cannot be proven wrong... he started this blog, and the blog is what he did... how is that wrong?
An opinion or prediction... wrong? Maybe. The real value?
This blog.
So, he has been proven absolutely right , in what is important - starting the blog.
We've alllearned (well almost all) from this experience. We owe him, thanks.
Shane,
Thanks for your good work on the blog.
Regarding this thread, well, I'm a bit disappointed, as I'm sure you are. A guy spends all day slaving over a hot computer, cooking up a decent post, and then what happens? A bunch of ungrateful whiners bellyaching and complaining.
Dealing with, uh, "kids" shall we say, is soooo tiring at times.
Kids these days...
But rest assured, it will be gratefuling when they grow up and thank you for your efforts.
Why is there no pipercritic or diamondcritic, etc.? I would say its because there is no unethical behavior and no dashed dreams.
I have a hard time using absolutes with any company, just with Eclipse it intentionally attracted worldwide media attention and cultivated politicians and regulators, but that cuts both ways. Eclipse also went about proclaiming that it knew more about the aviation industry than the aviation industry. Eclipse made many public claims about its business model of making 1000+ units per year, compared itself to Amazon in revenue, etc. Eclipse has publicly attacked suppliers. The list goes on and on, not the least of which was suing bloggers, which backfired. It has been Eclipse's actions that have lead to there being an active critic's blog as well as have sustained it...other aviation manufacturers have most likely done things that they could be criticized for, but there actions haven't been so loud and sustained as Eclipse's have.
Some feel that The Wedge presented himself well ... of course they run the Air Taxi Association, so his interests are their interests ...
{quote}
Looking back on Eclipse, Vern Rayburn gave a phenomenal from the heart speech that is captured best in the articles below. I personally asked him why he had been villainized in his tenure at Eclipse. He gave a combinationblunt and heartfelt answer, but stood by the results of raising a billion dollars and building a new industry. He struck a nerve with the audience with the candid retrospective he provided from his perspective. For both those that love him and for those that hate him, I am certain that there would not be a VLJ marketplace without his efforts.
{close quote}
Bill,
A decent post are you kidding me? You know in The Stick's other posts he would have some bit of "news," "stories", or something... But to break down a "transcript" and add comment to it? It is just plain weak. THAT WHOLE POST WAS THE STICK BELLYACHING ABOUT HOW VERN HURT HIS FEELINGS!!!! GIVE ME A BREAK!
<Why is there no pipercritic or diamondcritic, etc.?
No one really expects much from Piper. Staying between-the-lines has been one of their greatest assets as well as greatest detractors. No flash. No excitement. Just down the middle of the fairway.
As for Diamond. While certainly guilty of post-event over-hype, they have rarely fallen victim to the PRE-event variety. And when times get tough and things are not panning out they dive deep and go quiet.
Eclipse on the other hand, is certainly guilty of …
Intentionally enticing inequitable love?
- Probably
Intentionally generating unrealistic expectations?
- Definitely
Intentionally establishing dubious payment triggers and then taking credit for passing those hurdles with a D- effort?
- Absolutely
There is no question that events were constructed and “achieved” to make money flow. That practice has been reported by executive level insiders.
Why do people hate The Wedge?
Because he wanted people to hate him. It built the empire. It attracted the buyers and investors.
It gave him a reason to live his dream, and NOW a reason to re-live it at every $100 a plate conference dinner ad infinitum.
airtaximan said...
BAron,
true, true...
I also think the reason for the visceral reaction to Eclipse was in reaction to Vern's visceral attitudes and comments about the industry.
YES. I was addressing the reason why the Eclipse Critic Blog was created.
The cricle the wagons, obscure information speak in half truths and all the other Vernantics came mostly after that.
But you are correct that Vern's arrogance really attracted a rightful reaction.
There were three issues with Eclipse/Vern: a) arrogance/lack of humility, b) communications style when problems hit, c) expected mistakes for a startup.
a and b above were totally avoidable and were createed by Vern's schisms.
Or should I say just a weak attempt at retaliation because Vern hurt The Stick's feelings? Yeah some dude in Ireland is gonna make that guy's life hell, uh huh.... Don't try too hard Stick, you might just have a CVA...
OMSIV
Are you really going to spend your entire day grumbling about a critique of a transcript?
We concede that it will not will a Pulitzer … but in your vernacular:
O M G !
ru 4 real
For someone making it all the way to Level 4 one would think you have a better grasp on reality.
Zed,
Some feel that The Wedge presented himself well ... of course they run the Air Taxi Association, so his interests are their interests ...
naturally - you have to be polite to the invited speaker!
Air taxi operators even wait for Honda... although the FPJ is there and with "nice" price tag.
I think the FPJ is quite down on the agenda and since the price increase a non calculatable product for air taxi operators.
Julius
Zed,
OMG, Deez
There were three issues with Eclipse/Vern: a) arrogance/lack of humility, b) communications style when problems hit, c) expected mistakes for a startup.
a and b above were totally avoidable and were createed by Vern's schisms.
Actually with C Eclipse explicitly invited criticism due to A. Eclipse went into this claiming to know more about how to run an aviation manufacturing business than long-standing aviation manufacturing businesses did and did many other attacks on aviation manufacturers with their allegedly backward and opaque ways. Such public claims by Eclipse precluded Eclipse from then being able to use the "we're rookies at this" excuse (which is a viable reason for many companies).
EclipsePilotOMSIV must be Vern himself. Why else rant on like a stuck pig to this post? Why else go out of his way to invent a juvenile retort to being called Wedge? Some nerve was definitely struck.
Good work, Shane, stick it to him....
Good Job OMS4
Drop the B-bomb and now you can cry censorship when Shane smacks your keyboard.
baron95 said...
Stan had been proven wrong again and again. His principal arguments were that there were things critically wrong with the airframe and that Eclipse could never be certified, could never meet the performance targets, could not be produced. HE was wrong on all of those.
Baron you make it too easy.
I never said there was anything "critically wrong" with the airframe.
Though there were issues with wing bushings and skin panels chem-milled too thin, rivet problems and overall, a design intended for a 4,700 lb GTOW that has ballooned to nearly 6,000 lbs.
And BTW, we have never heard the results of the fatigue testing that some have reported limits the airframe life to 3,000 hrs.
Never said the airplane could not be certified and never said they could not get a PC. Did say that it would not be easy since Vern did not understand the basics which he later admitted.
Eclipse did not hit their performance claims. Remember the famous crew and four passengers Phoenix to Chicago at FL 410 and land with NBAA reserves? Didn't happen!!!
Also cruise Mmo at FL 410? Didn't happen!!!
And baron, I would rather read your Eclipse comments on airliners.net where you lecture to that crowd on all the problems with the Eclipse and the company that produces it.
It has always seemed a strange thing to me, to give up critical strength in the “skin”, by chem milling to save weight (?) . . . especially in an airframe that has a mandate to keep the cost down. 'Saving a few ounces in an airframe that tips the scales at over a half ton overweight . . . ? If it were alive, it would tend towards diabetes, stroke, and heart problems.
There are a few of us who still wonder as to the results of a full life-cycle stress test . . . and no, I’m not talking about a “tread mill” at the heart clinic.
gadfly
(And then, there’s the little issue of “aluminum eating critters” . . . that may have an appetite for stir-fried 7xxx series aluminum in corrosive environments. Prognosis: Not favorable for the patient!)
We can argue the details from now on, but the essential fact is that Eclipse said they would build an airplane that would meet their declared price and performance targets, and sell them by the thousands.
Stan and others, looked at the numbers and knowing that a whole bunch of aeronautical "Laws of Gravity" could not be changed for the E-500s benefit, threw the B.S. flag.
Last I heard, a full functional aircraft hasn't been delivered yet, with the performance promised, at the price that makes enough profit to keep the company in business..
Even with help from the FAA HQ lending a hand by (allegedly) relaxing/reinterpreting certification requirements for the E-500s, to the airplane's benefit.
Last I heard, a full functional aircraft hasn't been delivered yet, with the performance promised, at the price that makes enough profit to keep the company in business..
Yes, I don't even think Eclipse currently has a timeframe for Avio NG 2.0, which is supposedly when Eclipse would fully meet their contract. Then again even if they created NG 2.0 and got it certified, when would the retrofits happen?
Fred,
(I'm catching up a bit from the end of the last thread):
Don't worry about the lack of color pictures (I couldn't read them in Russian anyway :)
Regarding hole in the my back yard with Franklins in it...
I think the Wedge wasn't just digging a hole- he was using the world's largest auger. I attribute the rise of world fuel prices, and the demise of such after Wedge's departure, as evidence he was indeed powering the MOAD (Mother Of All Drills).
He never did make it all the way to China, but he tried. (Or maybe it was Siberia instead...?
Surely another $1B and 5 years would have got him there. Or, well, maybe another $2B and 10 years (nah, what idiot would need THAT much time and money to achieve a realistic goal?)
(However, if I had been playing in that circle of financial donors- some, apparently, brain donors as well (NOT Mr. Mann!)- I would "want it all" rather than a singular "what's behind door number X": a private jet*, with full tanks, full of supermodels, parked at my ocean front mansion- in ?Arizona?
(Well, if CA falls off...About the time the EA-500 is complete. Accompanied with about as much astonishment).
*I think the Colony Park wagon might hold more supermodels, and offer somewhat improved ergonomics in certain situation, over the EA-500. Plus, it offers a vanity mirror on the passenger side sun visor for those high-maintenance chicks.
(!! I'm somewhat surprised the Wedge didn't have a dozen vanity mirrors installed- maybe in the XS trim line rather than LX...)
(XS, excess, get it? Well, maybe some did :)
Regarding the "limited supply of "greens", well, maybe Wedge had foreknowledge of the Fed bailout, consuming $700B of paperstock- maybe not enough left over for EAC, hence his departure.
---------------------------
"When is that enough" : usually when she is leaving you a "post-it" on the fridge with "your diner is in the dog !"
:)
One last thing Fred, your math. You silly boy, "0+0=1".
Try 2,000,000,000.00 x 10 x 2000 = 250.
.)
Joe, Joe, Joe …
They are on track to sell these babies by the thousands.
Based upon my Bill-e-Goat style new math, DayJunk paid about $25.00 USD for each of their 1400 order book positions.
It seems realistic that The Wedge** intended upon selling ‘em these …
http://us.st12.yimg.com/us.st.yimg.com/I/
eclipseaviation_2024_15110450
** Syntactical Note … Please refer to The Wedge as “The” Wedge as he is no ordinary wedge. You wouldn’t call Mr. T just plain old T … I pitty the fool!
The Wedge Sues the Estate of Rod Smart
Seems the late Mr. Smart infringed upon The Wedgies battle cry ...
http://media.cnbc.com/j/CNBC/
Sections/News_And_Analysis/
__Story_Inserts/graphics/
__SPORTS/he_hate_me_xfljersey.standard.gif
Well, it would be irresponsible on my part, if I were to fail to comment further:
While I have no dog in this fight, I feel a strong loyalty to the industry that has been at the center of my life, for as long as I can remember . . . seven decades, for those who wish to know.
The little jet, . . . a “fun thing to fly” to some . . . is, in my opinion (which isn’t worth much, maybe), a ticking time bomb.
You folks can argue the financial aspects . . . ‘seems long ago it set its course towards financial ruin . . . but then, again, that’s your “bag”, not mine. (I did my homework . . . and discovered that Eclipse would not be a reliable customer . . . Albuquerque is a “small town”, and information is easy to acquire.)
Some of you have staked your future in manufacturing in this “thing” (‘don’t really know what to call it . . . although I have a personal opinion), and that’s where I enter the picture . . . since I have hired and fired a few people, but mostly helped others to gain greater skills, and go on to achieve higher goals . . . and from what I’ve learned about Eclipse . . . that it represents everything that I have attempted to avoid.
And then it comes down to basic design and manufacturing . . . my “bread and butter” for longer than most of you have been alive. (Earlier today, I came across a picture of my Dad and me, taken in Glendale, 711 North Broadway . . . Sturgess Incorporated . . . division of Pacific Scientific Corp., . . . I was about 8 years old . . . standing there in a white “smock” . . . with sleeves rolled up . . . standing next to my Dad, “inventor, machinist, shop foreman”, the “war” had just ended, and I got to spend the day with a woman named “Smitty” (Mrs. Schmidt), working on parts for a cable tensiometer, the “T5", the industry standard until my Dad’s T-60 took its place . . . I remember that day, a seven or eight year-old kid, working “on the line”, setting the size of precision blocks that determine the tension on control cables on aircraft. Even then, I took my work most seriously.)
Anyone, who has “savvy” in the area of aircraft design, may come up with an airframe, with some fantastic characteristics in performance . . . the history books are filled with them. But the true “genius” of aircraft design is to make the wise and necessary compromises . . . the thing that drives and restrains the truly great designers . . . to produce an aircraft that meets all, or most of the goals, while coming back safe and secure, year after year.
Eclipse didn’t make it . . . and many years ago, it was all too obvious. Argue all you wish . . . the claims have not been met . . . not by a long shot . . . not by over a thousand pounds . . . not by a million dollars . . . not by a complete avionics package . . . and the list will continue to get longer and longer, at a time when the list should have been much shorter. So far, no lives have been lost . . . so far! . . . but by slim margins.
There is enough information for anyone, including “the faithful one”, to know the risks and the probable future of those who continues down this slippery slope. So, the “gadfly” has little sympathy for what he observes.
“Name calling” is not my bag . . . it accomplishes little, and actually brings opposite results to that which seems to be intended. But I’ll continue to observe, and offer a comment now and then.
gadfly . . . a little bug whose intended purpose is to irritate, and keep others ill-at-ease.
(‘How am I doin’?)
Yep Zed ....irony can be so ironic at times. Did anyone else see this on AviationWeek???
http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/story.jsp?id=news/CUST11208.xml&headline=Eclipse%20Cuts%20Back%20Customer%20Support&channel=busav
Customer support hours are to be cut to 7am-7pm **mountain time** Mon-Fri. Good luck for all the faithful in need of spare parts. And if you are AOG, you get a "voice routing option" to -- ha! -- get higher priority support. So if a tree falls in a forest and no one is there to hear it .....if the phone is ringing in GNV or ALB and no one iz there to answer ... All that for just $2.15 million!!!
Pardon my language, but it is pretty F**KING pathethic when a Honda Civic has a better support network - and warranty - than the Eclipse 500.
e.d.t.
Zed,
"WE" are fondly amused!- Good point about, well, the "the" aspect.
I labored myself over that. I'm not sure if The Wedge referred to us as "THE idiots and cowards", or merely "THOSE idiots and cowards".
(I would truly like to reciprocate in kind).
("I pity the fool".
Well, I don't have much pity for THE fool :)
Gadfly,
"Anyone, who has "savvy" in the area of aircraft design, may come up with an airframe, with some fantastic characteristics in performance".
Gad, I prefer to think of my "Eclipsized" (well, it's actually somewhat larger than an Eclipse) Colony Park (see last few posts of previous thread, in case you were, ah, lucky enough to have missed it), as not a product of savvy thinking (some would unkindly argue, it is a product of NO thinking). Rather, of disruptive savior fare (?savior farce?) and discriminating taste (of, perhaps, the pepperoni pizza last night...)
"But the true "genius" of aircraft design is to make the wise and necessary compromises"
Why, thank you. (I am PARTICULARLY proud of the combination speed brake/sunroof).
"The thing that drives and restrains the truly great designers..."
Gad, the future belongs to the bold: Restraint? Nah-
"EXCESS IS UNOBTAINABLE"
(Although, The Wedge comes close...)
Also regarding the Eclipse AW article:
Notably, only a few vendors will sell parts directly to customers because of previous exclusive supply contracts with Eclipse.
Doh! Eclipse is preventing Eclipse customers from getting spare parts.
Bill.e.Goat
I am sure it was "those idiots" and "those cowards" as he certainly had a BUNCH of others on the He Hate Me list over his many decades of fitting in.
However, there might be some social glory in being at the top of his i&c list ... you know, being THE Idoit and Coward.
In an effort to portray himself as Number 1, he certainly came off looking like Number 2.
EDT,
"Pardon my language, but it is pretty ******* pathethic when a Honda Civic has a better support network - and warranty - than the Eclipse 500".
Don't forget- the Colony Park comes with 4000 FBO's.
(And, tasteful metal flake paint! Although the Eclipse did experiment with flakes for a while too, but the experience was...distasteful).
Doh! Eclipse is preventing Eclipse customers from getting spare parts.
Yep.
In an effort to apply their mark-up on ALL spares, their business approach now only supports The Artificial Reef Society.
Zed,
I think the He-Hate-Me list eventually expanded to a full notebook!
(PROBABLY, with color pictures too- now THAT's a disquieting thought!!)
(I would emphasize to our fellow bloggers, the significance of the capital N's in your assertion- do you suppose The Wedge has a pot to...well, you get the picture. I think B&W will suffice!! :)
Aviation Week
"But regardless of technical support, several critical spare parts are no longer in inventory because many vendors have stopped shipping spares to Eclipse until they receive payment for past due bills. And they won't ship more spares to Eclipse except on a COD basis.
Notably, only a few vendors will sell parts directly to customers because of previous exclusive supply contracts with Eclipse."
Ken:
How can you still support Eclipse? they stiff their vendors, won't let them sell parts to you, soon making your plane a lawn ornament, as many here call it. Yes it flys great but what a lousy company for you, other customers, vendors, employees, etc.
Turboprop_pilot
"The cricle the wagons, obscure information speak in half truths and all the other Vernantics came mostly after that."
actually WAY before....
- the Nimbus BS story to raise money
- first flight fraud
- Dayjet's norders
All came wayy before the bog's creation - cornerstone's of the business plan and ability to raise money, BTW.
But heck, if you had a real solid business plan and execution model, no one would be concentrating on the glorious $1B raised... would they?
Anyhow, house of cards, started in 1999 at $779k... the more they worked out the "problems", the more problems they really had - a lot of tall tales and BS...WAY BEFORE THE BLOG.
I agree with the reasons you cite.
Stan said... And baron, I would rather read your Eclipse comments on airliners.net where you lecture to that crowd on all the problems with the Eclipse and the company that produces it.
What can I say - my mission in life must be to bring the pendulum back to center on any discussion.
Eclipse remains the only light-twin jet (less than 6K lbs) on the market and still is the least expensive and the fastest with average range, slightly less than average payload.
They got FIKI with no radical airframe changes than Cessna (unplanned boot VGs, vertical tail boots, and strakes, add-on required).
Even I was wrong on the airframe. I thought the tip-tanks would cause handling qualities and performance issues. The only airframe related improvents I can think off are the pitot-static issues and anti-skid. Both easily solvable.
Now, unfortunately, all that is mute, because the avionics and associated electrical and ship control functions are a proprietary disaster.
If you are building 1000 ships/year, you can afford to invest in your own avionics stack. If you are upgrading 250 and building 50-150/year (as I believe is Eclipse's 2.0 future), you have no such luxury.
Someone, somewhere will have to bite the bullet and pai the $50-75M needed to rip out Avio and put in something else or pay about the same to the vendors to complete Avio to the original goals - full FMS, plus add things like sysnthetic vision, etc that are now table stakes.
So Stan, you predictions of Eclipse demose may be right in the end. But the causes have nothing to do with your original concerns when this Blog got going.
It is like all those people saying that $1.50, $2.0, $2.5, $3.0, $3.50 gas prices would kill GM. Yes, GM is dying now, when gas prices came down by 50%+. Something else killed it. The financial/economic conditions that caused GMs dream of low gas prices to return killed it.
What can I say - my mission in life must be to bring the pendulum back to center on any discussion.
AKA, talking out of both sides of your mouth...
Also cruise Mmo at FL 410? Didn't happen!!!
My understanding is that if you turn off pressurization and heating and don't care about carbon built up because of an overly rich fuel scheduling set up, MMO at FL410 is very easily achievable ;)
AKA, talking out of both sides of your mouth...
Yep - no sense in flying single-engine when you have a twin ;)
So I'll forgive you for using just one side of your brain/mouth/keyboard - after all, you are a single driver ;0
They got FIKI with no radical airframe changes than Cessna (unplanned boot VGs, vertical tail boots, and strakes, add-on required).
With FIKI they got a piece of paper. Without the retrofits being done and those lacking NG are stuck without FIKI for the indefinite future...and that could a sizeable chunk of people. It's the same with NG 1.5 certification and potentially EASA certification...just pieces of paper. The pieces of paper probably add value in a BK sale, but from a practical standpoint all those certifications don't mean much to the existing aircraft out there.
I don't fault Eclipse for the price escalation from $850K-$2.3M (which is where I think they will end up), over 10 years, a significant speed increase, etc.
That is par for GA startups - just go back and see what Cirrus said they'd sell you an SR22 for and now it cost $700K.
I also don't fault them for start-up over hype to raise money - that is a necessary skill.
I fault them for their communications and horrid avionics execution.
B95
The Cirrus would have been a good analogy, except you have it reversed.
The 2002 Cirrus was steam gauge 6-pack with a first generation Arnav MFD.
Today’s SR22 approaching $700K has Turbo, Air Conditioning, TKS, Garmin Perspective, EVS, a redesigned wing, etc.
The 2002 Eclipse had Avio.
Today's Eclipse 500 approaching $2200K has a Garmin 496, AvioNLS (no longer supported), occasional AC, and likely a steam-gauge ADI for EASA.
Time for the pendulum to swing ?
I'm sorry to be a bit boring on the subject, but I still can't get anyone to tell me who flew the 5 FPJ's out of GNV last week(end).
'Just in case'.
I know they moved.
I know Mike Press thanked everyone for helping to move them.
I know they're not there anymore but I can't, for the life of me, find out who did this kind deed.
Anyone?
Shane
I don't fault Eclipse for the price escalation from $850K-$2.3M (which is where I think they will end up), over 10 years, a significant speed increase, etc.
The thing is that people in the industry repeatedly said that, but then Eclipse accused them of being people living in the stone age and lacked vision. Actually I believe a couple years ago that the CEO of Cessna pretty precisely nailed it when he said that Eclipse would have to triple the price. I'm not even sure that Eclipse has officially retracted its claim for Eclipse being a million dollar jet. I think the official line is that the current price is a temporary setback until Eciplse goes about manufacturing and selling 1000+ units per year. I believe the last official statement was from Vern when he said that the $1.2M figure was the final figure for what each unit should cost.
PAYMENT ALERT
Word reaches me that some FPJ owners are not paying EAC for JetInComplete.
Sorry, that should read JetComplete.
Anyway, will you please pay the company what's due as they need the cash, urgently.
Don't expect to get anything for your money.
Just do the right thing.
Shane
BAron:
"The only airframe related improvents I can think off are..."
remember after say 100 planes or so (I cannot remember), they had to completely clean up the plane with a bunch of performance mods?
I know this was not for fiki... but remember, tis was a 10 year $1B design effort...
remember after say 100 planes or so (I cannot remember), they had to completely clean up the plane with a bunch of performance mods?
I believe those mods that went along with the FADEC changes are why there's the carbon buildup...that of course Eclipse blames the customer for.
The Performancement Enhancement Modification cut it at SN 039.
AvioNG cut in at SN 105.
SR22 G3 = $375k
What's the problem?
If you are complaining that they are a company with a full product line now, including a LSA and a Jet... I just ask "why"?.
These guys have done a terrific job of remaining current to the market and growing their product line.
They are the antithesis of Vern... calm, conservative, respectful, humble.
And yes, they produced planes 10 years ago for 20% less than their current offering at the low end (except for the LSA which is less expensive still)
They even have a thriving air taxi business partner/application for the SR22..
again, what's the problem??
Zed,
thaks for the correction... I must have been remembering the proposed umber of planes delivered and that would require the mods, by then...
Shame on me
Don't expect to get anything for your money.
Just do the right thing.
Afterall someone has to help pay for new shoes for the Eclipse Dutch basketball team.
ATM
The effectivity list in the NG AFM reads like an MC Escher creation ...
• Serial numbers 0105-0112, 0116-0119, 0121-0122, & 0125 and up;
• Serial numbers 0039-0104, 0113-0115, 0120, 0123-0124 with completion of Avio NG upgrade Service Bulletin #500-99-002;
• Serial numbers 0001-0038 with completion of the Performance Enhancement Modification Service Bulletin #500-99-001 and the Avio NG upgrade Service Bulletin #500-99-002
New SR22 for $375K? Where?
And full product line? A SINGLE 4 place unpressurized airframe with 2 engines and an STCed turbo from a third party plus a remarketed LSA?
Is that what we call a full product line these days?
Gulfstream alone has twice as many models.
Baron check out Cirrus' website... the price lists are all there... not a one at $700k.
These guys have produced models and upgrades to the intial SR20... called the SR22. There are a number of avionics packages and turbo available. Then, there a LSA... and a jet... in development.
You somehow have a problem with this?
SR20 (SRV) is only $215,000 base (there are around $100k in options)
SR33 (G3) is only $376,300 base
there's a GTS, G3-Turbo and GTS-Turbo ($540k plus $30k in options, +/-)
There's a SR22 GTS with Perspective SV avionics... plus plus at $526k base ...
and
SR22 GTS Turbo with Perspective SV, at around $591,000 plus $70 in add-ons... if you desire.
So they've done a terrific job of protecting their market at the lower end...then, added the LSA... and extended it up with the jet...
Issue?
Take a wait and see on the jet? OK...I can agree with that!
The amin point is, they have very successfully met a large market, and kept it, and expanded it... with a successful product designed to deliver value... a small price increase in 10 years of production, even at 600 units a year IIRC, is no price hike. I son;t really remembering them increasing the SR20 much... and yea they did increase the price somewhat wehn they offered the SR22...
good move.
EAC ain't even close
"Eclipse remains the only light-twin jet (less than 6K lbs) on the market and still is the least expensive and the fastest with average range"
So can a 1993 Frididare when terminal velocity comes into play....but I don't want to be playing in the fridge(which should be chained locked) when it falls to the ground...(what fun we had as kids)...as for the EA-500...IT should be chain shut.
Gad...you're STILL my hero! Thanks, Man
Well, I noted a certain sense of...fury, amongst those advocating, well, I'm not sure what they are advocating.
But I'll offer my observations anyway.
Starting at the top (of this thread):
JZ guy,
Welcome to the blog.
Now go home.
Just kidding.
Sort of.
Well, let's get it rolling...
This blog is about Eclipse and VLJ's (and rival products- including the disruptive Colony Park), the company (and other companies), the aviation industry, and of late, finance and how it realates to all of the above.
What it's NOT about, in general, is other bloggers, either "advocates" or "critics".
I've tried to avoid getting into the "blogging about bloggers" stuff, and up 'til now, I've avoided commenting on your now repeated commments about Shane not being, as you say, "ANONYMOUS".
Well, congratulations on that observation.
Since you seem either truly perplexed, or truly baffled: in the interest of stopping your repeated snivling, I will kindly explain the situation, IMHO. (Well, not so H).
I am quite confident that you too could understand it, without my elaboration, if you chose to- this is rather disappointing. But, without further ado...
Quoting Wedge (not noble enough to justify "The"):
"I’ve been scoured in the blogosphere, all by people who are "idiots and cowards"*...They do it through anonymity#...You look at these postings, and they’re all by people who are anonymous. They’re cockroaches trying to hide under rocks."
(I purposely left out the ambiguous "*(to quote Sarah Palin)", as I'm not sure if Vern inserted that, or an editor. I also left out the needless utterance (although, one wonders why I've been so selective): "#I’ve never shied away from saying 'You’re an idiot.'")
From this, it is obvious the Wedge is still spinning away, thinking everyone listens to him, but trusting nobody pays any attention to what he says. (I'd say that advice is 50% valid- I'm not sure if the cup, like the Wedge's brain, is half full, or half empty).
For those likewise faced with cranial volumetric challenges, the (il-)logic of the Wedge's construct is this:
i) ALL people who scour me in the blogosphere are "idiots and cowards".
ii) ALL "idiots and cowards" are anonymous.
iii) ALL who are anonymous are "cockroaches trying to hide under rocks".
iv) Shane has scoured Vern for his bad business capability and ethics.
v) Shane is not anonymous, and has repeatedly expressed that point.
vi) But Vern continues to assert ALL those who scour him are anonymous, thus "idiots and cowards", thus "cockroaches trying to hide under rocks".
Six items, well...maybe if you'd used BOTH hands, you could have figured this out yourself. (Or found some part of your anatomy* .)
---------------------------------
I'm AM puzzled why Wedge is obsessed with the anonymity issue (indeed, going as far as to launch an expensive legal action).
I suspect it is a timeless, witless attempt to deligitimize the critique, by deligitimaizing the critic.
Also, by insisting his critics are anonymous, he is subtly implying he would reply if he knew who to reply to.
Well, there are plenty of un-anonymous critics here, as well as anonymous ones, and THE WEDGE hasn't done anything except sputter and froth at the mouth about his ever increasing HE-HATE-ME list.
What a loser.
BY THE WAY...
I'm AMUSED (egad!!) by THE WEDGE's (mis-)use of the term "RISK".
The WEDGE is NOT risking ANYTHING !!! If he were, maybe he wouldn't have made such repeated idiotic decisions.
Instead, as Zed notes, THE WEDGE was "Ambassador of OPM ... Other Peoples Money".
THE WEDGE HAD A TEN YEAR, ALL EXPENSES PAID VACATION AT THE NEVERLAND RANCH.
SOME RISK, EH????
Goat notes, that Michael Jackson, like the WEDGE, has recently had a change of scenery. Effective Nov. 15, Neverland Ranch is Nevermore, MJ outlasted THE WEDGE by a couple of months, and at least MJ did NOT burn down the ranch before he left.
the OTHER Neverland Ranch
-----------------------------
(*just kidding JZ, sorry- I couldn't resist:)
Am I the only one who noticed the blatant self contradiction?
I’ve been criticized in the media for saying the problems were due to vendors. I’ve never said that.
And a few lines below that, we have this gem:
...some vendors screwed up.
This calls for Captain Picard: facepalm
Shane,
I have to admit, I WAS VERY puzzled over your post- I read it twice, and was STILL puzzled. I understood (and agreed with) your commentary, but I kept looking for Black Tulip's tell-tale giveaway hints of a parody. It really did take about 10 minutes for it to soak in- THAT IS REALLY WHAT THE WEDGE SAID.
Sheesh, FJT is right: "Was he drunk?"
Okay guys, let's take a simple test:
Q: What are the 'qualifications' of most of 'the faithful' that continue to argue with the main points of this blog?
A: Pilots of EA500 (except for Baron, who in typical NE fashion seems to like to argue with everyone)
Q: What are the 'qualifications' of most of the regular contributors that are critical of EAC?
A: Engineers, designers, A&P mechanics, successful business men and many, many other long-time aviation people (including several pilots)
-----------------------------
1. So how many people with the second set of qualifications can be found praising EAC? (or even thinking they will survive?)
2. Now how many EA500 pilots can we find that are critical of the plane and the company? (Shane is in contact with several, and I personally know an ex-EAC test pilot that refuses to talk about it)
-------------------------
Summary: Pure denial, name-calling, red-herring, and other non-factual arguments from 'the faithful'.
Stan and Shane, thanks for all of the time you've spent trying to protect those that have or will be hurt by EAC.
just zis,
Speaking as one of your betters, I would like to point out the following quote in regard to Vern's "cockroach" statement.
I’ve been scoured in the blogosphere, all by people who are “idiots and cowards.” You look at these postings, and they’re all by people who are anonymous. They’re cockroaches trying to hide under rocks.
I understand you must have some difficulty parsing the grammatical content of this message so let me assist by pointing out the use of the word "all". Perhaps you were confused by Vern's error in stating that every posting was anonymous? His ignorance notwithstanding, he plainly states that "all" of the critics are idiotic, cowardly, cockroaches.
For the record, Stan was quite open about his background and reasons for starting the original blog.
Billy
thanks for sharing with us your parent's movie about your young days ...! ;-))
you did look very cute ... then !
(yes , this is speculation ...as i do not know the way you look ... now !)
It is nearly 10:00 am in European time ...
i had a look at EASA for :
Type certificate
Product Certificate
Plane certificate (Both E.U. & non-E.U.)
finding nothing as a reference for Eclipse E500
i looked for :
Engine Certification
Avionic Certification
even Training Certification ...
is there any need to say : I FOUND NOTHING ...!
what i saw , something ABSOLUTELY SHAMEFUL for EAC :
one of the plane that got the latest Cert. :
A.162 (IM) Tupolev TU 204-120CE
I really wonder WHAT EAC/Etirc is going to show (off?) and teach to Russkyis , if they can get a product to be certified BEFORE EA500 when the project cost was much lower and started much after the mess called Eclipse ...!
#What can I say - my mission in life must be to bring the pendulum back to center on any discussion.#
huuuuuh ????
i thought it was to put yourself in the CENTER of discussion ...
#Because this was the ONLY high-profile, well-funded, airplane program from a non-traditional aviation player - i.e. Vern et al. #
Curbing reality again ...
Only = the only one you knew of , leading to natural question = "do you know everything ?"
well-Funded = at a time where banks were stupidly foolish enough to advertise "if you can moist a mirror with your breath , you can get a loan with us "
to raise capital , an exploit ? come on !
and if it was so well funded , why did they have to blackmail so often their own customers ? why did they have to curb reality ? (making a first flight being nothing else than a sad and dangerous joke !)
airplane program : NO ! the whole thing was NOT about making an aircraft ...
more about departing some gullible of their money ...!
from a non-traditional : that is one of the biggest chunk of the problem ...
would you like to have surgery with a surgeon that was a cook 10 minutes before , the only good argument being : "he knows how to cut meat !"
Player : for this = i AGREE !
the whole thing has been a gamble , nothing else !
some have got the jackpot ...!
only to find out the entry-price was in no-way worth the gain ...!!
Might Eclipse be more valuable without EASA? I was thinking about it and Eclipse might be more valuable to acquire during BK if it didn't have EASA. I say that because the Russian factory owned by ETIRC wouldn't be subject to the Eclipse BK and as such it would directly compete with whoever acquired Eclipse to take their sales away. However, if the new owners of Eclipse were to get EASA post-BK they might be able to keep it for themselves and make ETIRC buy the EASA rights or just keep the rights for themselves. This might all be academic, but the current focus from Eclipse on EASA seems entirely counterproductive given Eclipse's financial situation and how ETIRC rather than Eclipse would be the beneficiary of any EASA-related orders.
dave :
#I say that because the Russian factory owned by ETIRC #
sorry to remind you : up to now the Ulyanovsk factory remain built on cloud N°9 ...
in Russia Etirc own just NOTHING ...
both EAC and Etirc are worth what they have always been worth :
empty shell they are , empty shell they will remain ...!
as far as i know , even if the factory would be built , it wouldn't be under Etirc ownership as long as all loans aren't repaid ...
since such repayments should be made on the part of profits reserved for Etirc (being only in it with a minority shares)
i do believe that Personal Instant Transportation Beam (Star trek) will be invented long before such repayment can be made ...
unless EA500 is a huge success ,i do not see HOW Etirc could be so profitable to do so ...
How is your Dutch?--
Zakenjet Eclipse EA500 ontvangt Europese certificatie
21-11-2008
ALBUQUERQUE - De Europese luchtvaartautoriteit EASA heeft vrijdag (21 november) de Eclipse 500 gecertificeerd voor Europees gebruik. Hierdoor mag de tweemotorige very light jet in 37 Europese landen nationaal geregistreerd worden. Volgens Eclipse-baas Roel Pieper zijn daarmee de laatste obstakels voor een Europese marktintroductie definitief van de baan.
Ken
Fred, I'll bet you can tell us all the superb news that the article conveys :)
The very news you've been telling us we would never hear...
Ken
Ken,
great news... as you point out, many thought it would never ever happen.... many claimed they KNEW it would never happen...
You were right if you said they would obtain EASA...
Nice one!
PS. I hear the health inspectors gave Bennigan's a clean bill of health a few month ago...
;)
Kennyboy ...
How can you be fooled by anything , after SO many scam ?
remember ?
Russian Money ?
Mega-order from everywhere ?
and on , and on , and on ...
just a little news for you my friend : NON comfirmation from EASA ITSELF !!
not from a free newspaper , not from a lousy website operated by a geek ...
An early Christmas Present ?
The blog will soon be rife with "Now RP is going to declare BK and take the cert and PC and run".
Hopefully there is enough talent and motivation remaining to convince the financiers to extend their risk.
It will be interesting to see what the new owners do with the current leadership and corporate structure.
Great news for owners, depositors, fully diluted stock holders, employees, and maybe even vendors.
an other point , my poor kenny :
if you read carefully what you posted ...
ROEL PIPER SAID ....
sorry , to put you under the bus :
but WHY do YOU think the article is in Dutch , when supposed to come from ABQ ?
it doesn't ring any bell ?
Fred -
Look at your watch, then subtract 8 hours.
It is 0730 in ABQ.
Folks are still at Starbucks talking loudly and giving out good intel.
http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2008/11/21/319199/easa-nod-for-eclipse-500.html
What Ken left off was that retrofits are required and even with those retrofits, the aircraft isn't certified for commercial operations:
The Euro certification will require Eclipse 500 aircraft to be equiped with Avio NG 1.5 plus optional equipment specific to European operations, including a third altitude indicator and dual Mode S diversity transponders. Eclipse continues to pursue EU-OPS 1 approval, which will allow commercial operation of the twinjet there.
Flightglobal:EASA nod for Eclipse 500
So it is still just a piece of paper and not even a piece of paper allowing commercial operations.
Here's the certificate:
Eclipse EASA Certificate
Then there's this article:
NMBW:Eclipse lives, but industry not waiting
I'm still wondering how having EASA helps rather than hurts Eclipse to be a sustainable business. EASA afterall is for orders in ETIRC territory and those orders wouldn't be delivered until the Russian factory is scheduled to start and so don't help the production volume of ABQ.
Kenny , you were right !
it is amazing !
in the own word of the guy i asked in this , they don't know what kind of rope they have pulled !!
the real fight start soon = money problem !!!
The European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) issued today its type certificate for the Eclipse 500 jet.
The EASA "type-certificate" confirms that the design of the aircraft complies with European safety and environmental standards. The Eclipse 500 can now be legally registered and operated for private flights throughout the European Union. In addition, the type-certificate is valid in Switzerland, Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein. The certification process for commercial operations is still in progress.
The Agency’s certification team started its work on the Eclipse 500 in 2003. It is certified against Certification Specifications valid for General Aviation aircraft (CS-23), completed with numerous additional requirements as the jet is considered as a High Performance aircraft.
Pictures are available on request.
Note to editors: The European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) was set up by the EU in 2003 to promote the highest common standards of safety and environmental protection in civil aviation. Based in Cologne, the Agency currently employs nearly 500 experts and administrators from all over Europe.
Dave -
The additional requirements are:
1. Mechanical Back-Up ADI – This is the original US Part 135 requirement in many of the DayJunk airplanes.
So, that is done!
2. Second Mode-S Diversity Transponder – AvioNG is already provisioned for a second Garmin GTX-33() unit.
So, that is done!
Next ?
The additional requirements are:
1. Mechanical Back-Up ADI – This is the original US Part 135 requirement in many of the DayJunk airplanes.
So, that is done!
2. Second Mode-S Diversity Transponder – AvioNG is already provisioned for a second Garmin GTX-33() unit.
So, that is done!
Next ?
Zed, when did the entire fleet get equiped with Avio NG 1.5? I'm really curious when the DayJet fleet got NG 1.5 given how they are advertised as not having that. Like I said, this requires retrofits that aren't being done as it is just a piece of paper.
Well fred it would seem your source is full of crap. You shouldn't boast so much about how you know all these people with EASA and they say it won't happen.
Hey maybe this is reality "Sticking it" to you critics. You guys say the plane sucks and the FAA was bought. There is no way EASA will certify it.... WRONG! The best part is some of you dispute this even now. You guys are ridiculous. By the way Fred, Ken was right and you were wrong. I know you admitted that but, damn dude you sounded so sure about it...... Oh well.
Hey maybe this is reality "Sticking it" to you critics. You guys say the plane sucks and the FAA was bought. There is no way EASA will certify it.... WRONG! The best part is some of you dispute this even now.
Where did I say EASA wouldn't certify it?
Dave –
When is the entire existing fleet going to be deliverd to Europe?
Come on. Have some more coffee.
Appropriately equipped N-registered aircraft will continue to operate.
New production EASA configured airplanes will be delivered in EU livery.
Remember that SN-266, the first AvioNG 1.5 aircraft was on display at AirVenture. Granted that it was ahead of the normal 1.5 flow to serve as a cert aircraft, but most airplanes since then are in the 1.5/FIKI/etc. config.
Now, aircraft bound for the EU will simply have two additional systems installed.
Make sense ?
"this is reality "Sticking it" to you critics. You guys say the plane sucks and the FAA was bought. There is no way EASA will certify it.... WRONG! The best part is some of you dispute this even now. You guys are ridiculous."
Don't know how anybody could say it better than that :)
And Fred--don't take it so hard.
Ken
EASA. Great.
At least the aircraft that are AOG in Europe will be certified! ;-)
When is the entire existing fleet going to be deliverd to Europe?
Come on. Have some more coffee.
You were the one who disputed what I said on retrofits being required by saying they needed a couple things. Instead of saying I should have coffee, why not just admit you were wrong and Avio NG 1.5 retrofits are required in addition to what you listed? You specifically brought up the DayJet fleet and now you're trying to say you weren't talking about the DayJet fleet.
Congratulations to EAC and the certification team. This is a major boost to the value of the post bankruptcy TC.
It might add as much as two cents (on the dollar) to what the creditors would otherwise expect....
Of course the PC is toast, but that won't really matter when production moves to Russia anyway.
But it's also clear that AvioNg 1.5 is the only game in town, and there has to be a question mark over aircraft that get upgraded, if you read the note below.
Note 8: The Eclipse EA500 incorporates integrated avionics systems using software-based line replaceable units (LRU’s) which share a digital signal transmission bus. The
avionics configuration of the Eclipse EA500 as delivered from production is critical to the proper operation of the cockpit instrumentation system. Modification to the
LRU software supplied with the Eclipse EA500, replacement of an LRU with a different LRU, addition of new LRU, or alteration of an LRU interface could adversely affect the airworthiness of the certified product. Accordingly, no changes to the integrated avionics system may be made without coordination with the EASA."
In one way this makes me very happy. Nobody has mentioned 'LRU' for ages on the blog....
Shane
9Z
You know that the AOG aircraft are already certified. That is how we know they are aircraft and not lawn furniture.
Doubtful that most will be “recertified” in EU livery. If so, it would happen when back in ABQ for the 1.5 upgrade.
Disclaimer – While I still feel that the leadership in ABQ is Numero Dos, I am enthusiastic that the airplane is finally certified.
JZguy,
Shane was offended by what the Wedge said in his own G.W. sort of way, about not only himself, but us bloggers in general (or at least those who "scour me in the bloggosphere"):
"All people who scour me are idiots and cowards"- there can be no other interpretation of that.
But Wedge is subtly noting that not all "idiots and cowards" scour him. (From some of the posts, here, quite the opposite :).
And then he rambles on about insects, and nuclear power, and becoming a bureaucrat. In the DOT specifically, which would be over the FAA. (Say, do you think- just maybe- the Wedge is giggling to himself in a dark corner somewhere, filling out names of FAA guys in his "HE-HATE-ME" notebook, and longing for the chance to extract revenge? (But...he DID say "dark days are ahead with the FAA??)
Nah, that would be infantile.
"People have asked me if I’m going to be the next Secretary of Transportation...One article said I was a member of Obama’s aviation staff"
EXCUSE ME !?! Was that in the most recent copy of "Fruits and Nuts", or "Recreational Mushrooming?" Or- maybe- Black Tulips parody right here ("The Democratic National Committee announced today Vern Raburn has joined Barack Obama’s campaign team as a key adviser")!!
Or maybe Mr. Wedge was just mistaken in his interpreatation of some comments that he would probably "soon be doing Federal time" (understandable, given his vanity).
Or maybe not. Consider his protestations about Leavenworth (which he obviously got it confused with DC):
"I’m not going to be involved in government. I’ve watched that town suck the life out of [people]. Not a good place. It is a profoundly and decidedly negative place to exist."
Anyway, thanks for the reflection and openness JZGuy. (I look forward to less linguistically exhausting banter!! Please remember, Wedge forgot to mention that I'm lazy and stupid, so please cut me some slack in the future !!).
Avio-NG, here we come!! .)
Ken,
there is the certification.
And you think, tomorrow you get the promised autothrottle...
(for money or free).
Ok there are some improvements - do you get them,too (Vfe(LDG))?
Perhaps the cert will be the trigger for a 200M$ investment in EAC - but why?
RP will tell you or?
Julius
Eclipse Cuts Back Customer Support
Aviation Week
NEWS ALERT
EAC issued a pair of press releases today, the major effort being behind the EASA one.
BUT...
AvioNG 1.5 is now fully FAA certified.
So, as promised here two weeks ago, everyone can now get FIKI, provided they also upgrade to AvioNG 1.5
Right, when will these upgrades commence?
I suppose the technically correct answer is 'Tuesday'.
I wonder if Ken can provide a date? I'm sure he will be anxious to get the upgrade so that he can fly into 'known icing' conditions....
Shane
So, as promised here two weeks ago, everyone can now get FIKI, provided they also upgrade to AvioNG 1.5
I think for FIKI alone, you just need NG to be able to get the FIKI retrofit, but for EASA you need NG 1.5.
Yeah Dave you know you may have not said the E500 won't get EASA. Considering your major contribution to this blog is surfing the internet and posting links. But I guess that helps people too.
You know if Eclipse gets their act together and starts doing well, according to the Stick and Co, you will have a great future in the Vern Raburn (aka Wedge) Critic Blog.
Hey Stick, maybe you make a newer more informative post sometime soon, I can even give you a Headline "To Our Surprise EAC Actually Gains EASA Certification and Avio NG 1.5 approval." That would allow you to keep your cynical point of view while actually writing about something newsworthy. Or this can be in internet tabloid, whatever you want, it is your blog...
Yeah Dave you know you may have not said the E500 won't get EASA. Considering your major contribution to this blog is surfing the internet and posting links. But I guess that helps people too.
No, I've explicitly said that I thought they would. It's not that I didn't comment on the subject.
You know if Eclipse gets their act together and starts doing well
I'm still waiting for answer as to what exactly that would be. Are they going to sustainably sell 500+ units with one factory or 1000+ units per year with two factories or are the prices going to go up yet again and further reduce sales volume? This is of course not even factoring in their pre-existing debts, but a matter of how they'll get to profitability in day-to-day operations and manufacturing costs.
OMSIV said ...
Or this can be in internet tabloid, whatever you want, it is your blog...
IV,
Say it with us ... "a" "a" "an".
And, despite your deepest desires, this is "our" blog.
Shane stands as a lightning rod for all of us, and for that alone, he is greatly appreciated.
Being Friday, please let out all of the vitriol today so that it gets lost in the weekend clutter.
So he is a shiny Stick and conducts well. Nice one Zed
So now that EASA is in hand, where is the flood of European orders for the Eclipse 500 that Roel promised? This surely couldn't have been a farce, could it?
I'm sure the faithful are building their ark in anticipation of this flood. At least they have something to do to keep their minds off of Eclipse's current financial state.
And when they're done, instead of animals they can stock the ark with pairs of every part for the Eclipse 500. It can be the future Eclipse 500 parts depot once Eclipse goes belly up.
EclipsepilotOMSIV,
I won't call you 'Mike Press' if you don't call me 'Stick'.
Deal?
Shane
EASA is surely good news for EAC. Re: the discussion of Ch 7 vs. Ch 11, this would be a favorable factor for Ch 11. For DIP financing, the supplier of the financing must see that there is potential ongoing business where the company could operate at a positive margin (i.e. generate operating income)if freed from the financial burdens of its past. In a nutshell, someone must be found who would see a sufficient number of units being sold at $2.3m (with options) to generate a cash flow. That party would then provide the money to restart production, re stock inventories and crank up the retrofit business (charging for the retrofits). The burdens of exiting debt, former supplier invoices, deposit refund requests, etc. would be left to be sorted out by the court from any funds left over after the DIP obligations were satisfied.
So now, in addition to all the orders one might foresee in the USA, one can add all the orders one might foresee in Europe. Are there enough? We will soon see (a) are there believers out there foreseeing hundreds of units per year so that they will supply the DIP funds and (b) if (a) takes place will the foresight prove accurate?
Note: To suppose that there will be no Ch. 11 is to suppose that someone will come forward to supply both the DIP amounts PLUS an amount to take care of past debt, deposit refunds, old supplier invoices, etc. I don't know why someone would volunteer to pick these up if a Ch 11 proceeding would make such unnecessary.
Re: Note 8....."accordingly, no changes to the integrated avionics system may be made without coordination with EASA."
This is pretty much a standard statement for any airplane that is RVSM-certified. Your RVSM authorization letter for your specific aircraft should have RVSM critical equipment listed with specific part numbers. Install anything else, and your RVSM certification is no longer valid.
The typical process for LRU mods/changes is for the manufacturer to submit the data to the certification authority, who then reviews and approves it. The manufacturer then releases a Service Bulletin for the mod/change, with a statement in the SB that this is approved by the certification authority for RVSM operations, or something to that effect.
The purpose of this is for the certification authority to insure that any hardware/software changes will not have an adverse effect on the airworthiness of the aircraft.
The short version (as far as the E-500 is concerned) is that the configuration as shown on the EASA paperwork is the only EASA recognized configuration. Any improvements/upgrades will need to be completed by an approved-by-EASA Service Bulletin, or by their equivalent of a FAA337.
As far as the Eclipse vendors not selling parts direct.....all the OEMs I know of have these contracts for aircraft specific parts.
The rationale being that the OEMs want to have some control over who is building/overhauling parts that are going on "their" airplanes.
They've lost too much money in lawsuits where a substandard part was installed in the aftermarket, but they've had to shell out the payout bucks, because they were the "deep pockets" Structural Repair Manuals are disappearing for the same reason.
So now that EASA is in hand, where is the flood of European orders for the Eclipse 500 that Roel promised? This surely couldn't have been a farce, could it?
Now that Eclipse has that Roel can magically pay for 120 orders plus 60 options. Roel couldn't make payroll, but he's got the financing for ETIRC to pay for dozens and dozens of jets from Eclipse...or were those never intended to be filled by Eclipse?
EASA is surely good news for EAC. Re: the discussion of Ch 7 vs. Ch 11, this would be a favorable factor for Ch 11. For DIP financing, the supplier of the financing must see that there is potential ongoing business where the company could operate at a positive margin (i.e. generate operating income)if freed from the financial burdens of its past. In a nutshell, someone must be found who would see a sufficient number of units being sold at $2.3m (with options) to generate a cash flow.
That's actually why I said EASA pre-BK was bad for Eclipse since you're talking about ETIRCland and the ETIRC factory. Now especially it would cost even more to make ETIRC and the Russians go away. Roel's manufacturing rights through ETIRC most likely couldn't/wouldn't go away if Eclipse filed for BK and whatever orders he fills through ETIRC make the ABQ factory more expensive to operate per unit since less units would be produced compared to just having one factory for worldwide production.
Congratulations to the EAC team!
Well done.
(?or half baked? Well, congrats anyway for the good news!)
EPx,
My, my. You've outdone yourself lately!!
I've noted that most blog newcomers, are rather, shall we say, presumptive in dismissing others. Then, the competence represented on the blog starts to soak in. I feel that's the way I behaved, and have noted it in many people who have joined since me, whether they be "advocate" or "critic".
Soooo, I did some scanning to see just how long you've been visiting, as I was out of touch for a few months. (The shock treatments did wonders though- I think the WEDGE would similarly benefit, although I would suggest they be conducted in off-peak hours, as it would surely place a substantial load on the power grid to make any meaningful progress with him).
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Since June, of this year, or so, eh? Guess you missed what's been going on for the past 10 years or so, and documented here over the past 2+ year. Not to worry though, the normal “adjustment” period seems to be 3-4 months, so I believe you are the verge of a breakthrough- perhaps we are witnessing the last throughs of denial. I hope it comes soon, as in perusing some of your posts that I rather detected a certain pattern in:
"You cry for other people to play with and when the people that don't think just like you show up to play you guys get all defensive and say "You guys can't play cause you're a big stupid." (Reading todays posts, I would am reminded of “Pot: Hey Kettle, you're black!” :)
"I have a new hope for this airplane to be successful, and it is not for personal gain. Just to shut you people up". (Okay, think we see where you're coming from).
"Again, this is just a rumor, but you know how rumors on this blog tend to be more right than wrong. ;-)... BUUULLLLLLLLSHHHHIIIIIIIIITTTTTT!!!!!" (Okay, that was a while back, and I'm sure if you have an open mind and, ah,well, never mind the mind thing.).
"Here's an idea GET A JOB...And you should start referring to yourself as "unemployed pilots" I'll buy the planes, you just fly em". D (My, my, rejoicing in the misfortune of others? With emerging developments, I'd be just a l-i-t-t-l-e more humble).
"Yo bill e goat....SHUT THE HELL UP" (Well put!!)
Shane deleted one post, with the annotation to "please avoid such crude language in future". (Well put Shane!!)
"I am however also involved in the medical field in addition to being an ATP. What can I say when I do things, I want to be the best". (Yo Epx...SHUT THE HELL UP”)
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Oooookay now. We all say stupid things, sometimes lots of stupid things. Most don't say stupid, arrogant things though, at least not repeatedly.
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Now that I have a frame of reference, let's move along to this thread...
"I will say what I have been saying from day 1: "You guys are just a bunch of guys on the internet speculating about something you have no direct connection with".
What IS obvious, is that you have little direct connection with the aircraft industry. But you DO seemed pleased with your "direct connection with" the EA-500.
Congratulations then, I expect you to make contributions in your area of expertise.
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"I mean even the 'all-knowing' Shane has a source that he gets a large percentage of his information from, and this "working pilot" is generally full of crap. Heck, he didn't even change his name to 'Unemployed pilot' when referencing him".
Ah, yes, you bring up this fellow again. Odd, how I don't seem to remember Shane mentioning him, but if you say so (over and over...). I do find it unseemly that you seem to be gloating over the fact this unfortunate fellow is unemployed though...
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"You know what? I can find tons of people that will try to verbally bash every aircraft in the sky right now. Everybody can have something to say about a plane..."
I don't think you are new to flying, hence your correct observation.
But, do you think -possibly- there are some others who have been around airplanes too? I mean, do you think it is even -maybe- imaginable, that YOU aren't the ONLY one, who has ever had a hangar bull session? Maybe? Just- maybe??
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"But I will tell you what, there is another thing called Libel, and Shane that was pretty much what your whole last post was".
SORRY there EPx, I don't see ANYTHING libelous in Shane's post. Wedge referred to ALL bloggers as "idiotic cowardly cockroaches who hide under rocks", and in return Shane referred to Wedge as "paranoid, unshaven, crappy exec"
Say, I forgot to say "UNEMPLOYEED Ex-Exec", sorry about that ommission.
Tit for Tat- don't see any libel there (and nah nah na nah nah- Wedge started it!!:) Have another swig of koolaid though.
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"And until you know-it-alls get some actual experience, besides either A) living vicariously through others or
B) Posting links to other peoples work, your opinions are pretty much worth nothing".
I assume you mean, "buy an Eclipse like I did". Sorry- some can't, some can and won't, and some can and did. Get over yourself. And please preface every one of your comments with "I own an Eclipse and I say". We really would like to hear your comments on something you are knowledgeable about.
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"In defense of some of you though, I know that there are some people here that have business experience and it shows".
Yes, everyone who doesn't own an Eclipse is an idiot, but some are defensible idiots. Thank you for your benevolence, EPx.
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"But guess what guys, Eclipse is in a tough spot financially, not anything people don't know already".
Well, EPx, actually the blog DID guess it, or rather figure it out. I find it stunningly condescending of you to note "not anything people don't know already". You dolt- the blog surmised this A LONG TIME AGO.
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"Lastly" (sigh, I wish), "some of you have made some play on words at my "blog name,"
Yeah, most of us are too lazy to spell whatever it stands for. And I specifically DID ask you what it stands for. I assume you are pleased with yourself for being an osteopathic medical student, grade 4 (like Jethro, 3 years in grade 4?) but I'm not sure. But I am sure that I don't care, as it has nothing to do with the blog.
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"...have a Guinness. It might calm you down, unless you are an angry drunk"
Well, Thursday you mentioned "angry" here, and "anger" in a following post; and it we are discussing the the apparently drunken rambling of your hero WEDGE. Does this seem to suggest something ???
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“You think he was pissed you were leaking secrets????? Dude this whole blog is LIBEL! And yeah that is grounds to go to court with someone".
Say, I think this the SECOND time you mention Libel. Sounds like you would like to go to court "just to shut you people up", right??
(...? Epx, do you HATE people who disagree with you? Are “those people” t just SO offensive to your -uniquely, exquisitely, keen intellect?? Goodness gracious, I do trust NOT. Ah, right??').
And by the way, your dim witted surly air head of an ex-CEO didn't try the slander cheap shot, because it wouldn't stick. He DID try a lame-o NDA stunt. And guess what- that didn't stick either. EAC finally got a REAL CEO, rather than a REAL OCD stooge, and he dropped the frivolous legal action as a stupid, insulting, distracting, counterproductive and demeaning to the company sideshow. (Sort of like he dropped the former CEO).
You see -or perhaps you don't- the rest of the world has figured out that the sun REALLY will rise tomorrow. There is nothing proprietary about that, or certain other business and physical realities, as much as THE WEDGE would like to pattent them as market as “sunshine-NG”.
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"If you would disinform people about my business I would be pissed too, you bet I would sue you".
Well, unless you're G.W., the word is "misinform". Otherwise, that would be "disagree". Yes?
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"I don't agree with the choice to sue a bunch of bloggers, but still..."
But still WHAT !!
P-L-E-A-S-E EPx, you want to thank WEDGE for building YOU an airplane. FINE- THANK HIM.
But defend WEDGE in suing his "enemies"? (maybe if you're nice, you can even help WEDGE work on his HE-HATE-ME list).
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"Stop acting like oh he sued us, so we must be right".
Actually, we ARE right. WEDGE sued the blog to "shut those people up". Do you REALLY think there was any other reason???
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"Yeah I could make up 100 different things about a company and some of it may be truth. And I am sure you guys did leak some facts out there along with all the BS."
In other words, there is SOME truth on the blog. Nice concession. S-A-Y, how would YOU rate the Eclipse PR machine???
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"I mean I have seen emotional reactions from employees who got laid off, and first thing they did was come post on this blog in anger, trying to get back at big bad Eclipse. Lets talk to all the Cessna employees that got laid off last week and see if they have great things to say about Cessna".
Well, lets see now. Cessna has about 10,000 employees, Eclipse about 1000. Both have announced hundreds of layoffs. But I don't see any CessnaCritic blogs, do you???
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"PS it just takes one asshole to start a blog to shit talk a company".
It just takes one (or two!) people to start a blog about an asshole with a company who's talking shit.
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"Congratulations you deserve a Nobel Peace Prize!"
Sorry Stan- Nobel Prizes CAN NOT be won by engineers or mathematicians. Shane can accept it though!!
(Seems like Mr. Nobel's wife ran off with a geek, and Mr. Nobel wasn't very "noble" about accepting it. But I say Pulitzer nominations for both Stan and Shane!)
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"People will fear and attack what is different, nice job picking up on that".
Or picking up and parroting the Wedge: "people whose comment to anything new is 'It can’t be done. It hasn’t been done, so it shouldn’t be done'".
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"By the way have you guys ever been in an FBO and talked to other pilots? You will hear aircraft trash talk all day if you sit there long enough. Maybe you guys should get a reason to go to an FBO".
Yeah, none of us has ever been to an FBO. Except for those of us that have an Eclipse. Maybe we should ALL get an Eclipse so we could to go to an FBO, and be cool.
(P-L-E-A-S-E EPx, this is soooo transparent...)
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EPx has posted a lot of informative and cordial comments in the past. And some others like the above.
I look forward to more of the informative and cordial ones. EPx is obviously proud of his airplane.
(And, ahem, obviously proud of himself as well. That's not meant as a compliment, in case he couldn't tell).
What baffles me though, is why such bloggers are NOT appreciative of the blog? It is here to inform mostly, and along the way, entertain. Why do people not appreciate that? Think how MUCH, MUCH worse informed (or, shall we say, “disinformed”:) they would be about aviation in general, and Eclipse in particular, WITHOUT the blog. Investors, Customers, Suppliers, Employees, Taxpayers- ALL have been well served by the blog. I just don't get it. If anyone doesn't like what they read, leave. You don't HAVE to read the blog. But to pretend the track record is anything less than informative*, due to the multi-millennia of experience represented here, is naivety at best, and wanton delusion at worse.
*sorry WEDGE- IN A NON-NDA WAY (but go ahead, and try to get a patent on “SunshineTomorrow-NG”, and sue “insiders” for being aware it and “revealing” the “proprietary” and “intellectual property” aspects of Calendars-NG).
We have been extraordinarily lucky to have so very little deliberate misrepresentation. Sometimes blatantly false assertions, but uxually made either through excess passion, or inadequate information (and sometimes, excessively inadequate information), but very very little deliberate misrepresentation.
So, if you can help with the misinformation, please do so- all will sincerely appreciate it. (Except, maybe, the WEDGE !!).
(BTW, I can pretty much anticipate the next post, but “go ahead, m-a-k-e—m-y--d-a-y” :)
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BTW, I think EPx is plenty smart, and plenty coridal on occassion- just unpleasant and ill-tempered of late. (No doubt, a victim of too much association with the Wedge)
Wedge can rub off on you...
David,
how much money will be transfered to ETIRC for each a/c to be sold in EASA-land?
ETIRC must do quite a lot as the only dealer and has lost of responsibilities....
When is this money due?
But I think RP has lots of good ideas to get his money back including a ROI!
Julius
Say,
That was a long post.
Sorry there weren't more pictures.
:)
Cheapest way to buy a plane if you have a budy in the FAA
It is good to be the king - err - federal worker.
Billy :
aren't your fingers burning and smoking after such a long post ?? ;-))
ok , Guys a little bit of explanation :
How many EA500 have been yet assembled to EASA configuration ?
(tough question , but kenny is going to give us an answer ...)
How many of you are still interested in crossing the Atlantic Ocean with the Fpj ?
How many of the thousand(s) european orders are going to materialize ?
How much is going to be charged for all changes in EA500 config. ?
how much is to be spent to have an European Service Center ?
(when the ones in the US are reducing exposure ...)
this thing is much more vicious than it seems at first glance , now it is not a cash funds shortage ... it is an endless abyss opening under RP feet ...
ps: i am still NOT interested in trying one !
Quick Pick at the blog dashing through SFO...
Wow, Wow, Wow, Eclipse continues to soldier on and get two more notches on their belt: EASA and Avio NG 1.5, in addition to FIKI and FAA TC/PC/135.
Nothing short of amazing. I just can't believe it. That is a substantially complete airplane, now with better avionics than a 2007 PC12, BE200, TBM850 (non-Garmin), Meridian, and the vast majority of light ts built prior to mid-decade.
$200M-$300M should enable them to upgrade the fleet to final config, restart training, re-start the line, deliver at a loss the remaining pre price increase positions, then reach stability in 2010 delivering 3 planes/week or so at a slight profit. Another $200M should enable them to get the EA400 going.
Can they get the $200-$300M? I don't know. I'd guess not, but I have been surprised so many times by Eclipse - we really need to give them credit.
Dave - give it up, pal. EASA is a *HUGE* positive, no matter how you look at it.
Shane, it seems like events have, again, made your "the end is here" postings obsolete. Time for an update.
I'm really happy for Ken and the other EA500 owners. At least there is a "final", "stable" and doubly certified configuration to aim for a ONE-SHOT upgrade. The only variable is if it will be paid by EAC or the owners. In Ken's case, either way he'll come up on top and under $2M. Not bad.
Huge challenges remain - but lets hear it for the first GA start up EVER to certify a twin-jet with both the FAA and EASA full FIKI, IFR.
$200M-$300M should enable them to upgrade the fleet to final config, restart training, re-start the line, deliver at a loss the remaining pre price increase positions, then reach stability in 2010 delivering 3 planes/week or so at a slight profit. Another $200M should enable them to get the EA400 going.
And what price would Eclipse charge for three planes per week? The current price for breakeven is for a higher delivery than 150 units per year.
Dave - give it up, pal. EASA is a *HUGE* positive, no matter how you look at it.
I agreed it would be if this was post-BK, but simply you proclaiming that doesn't make it so. Why is it a huge positive when EASA aircraft are in ETIRC territory and not in Eclipse territory? You're just completely ignoring the ETIRC Russian factory and what the does to your 3 units per year figure. Like I said if this was post-BK and the ABQ factory could manufacture worldwide then it would be good rather than having ETIRC make the ABQ factory less efficient by manufacturing the foreign orders and shrinking the order book in ABQ.
Baron said... Dave - give it up, pal. EASA is a *HUGE* positive, no matter how you look at it.
Don't be too hard on Dave. After all he does know how to use Google search and Cut&Paste in Windows - but so does my six year old daughter. But she does have original thoughts on here own.
Hi Fred,
The previous post was long, but provided diversion while I was up all night working on my Ted Kaczynski Christmas Card/HE-HATE-ME mailing list.
Wedge's Evil Twin
?! One MORE reason to stay anonymous, with folks like Wedge having some time on their hands lately.
(Although, I more worried about what's in his mind, than whats at hand- guess that's a pretty small thing to worry about though :)
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"How many of you are still interested in crossing the Atlantic Ocean with the Fpj ?"
Fred- you have obviously fallen for the 'ole "we have Avio-NG problems to sort out" feign, eh ?!?
Little did anyone suspect what was REALLY going on in the secret underground EAC R&D labs.
I was giving Shane time to get the news out, but, okay, I'll go ahead and post it.
And speaking of "disruptive", I think something a little weird is going on "in back".
(When considering the Wedge's previous involvement, I find certain interpretations of that disquieting).
Proverbial extra fuel/extra weight/extra thrust condundrum.
With a new/old solution!
EA-500 "Eclipse "Atlantic" model
No doubt, this a legacy of Wedge's involvement with the IT industry- what with quad processors being all the rage for the past couple of years.
(Think about it- the emergence of quad processors just about coincided with the change from Avio to Avio-NG... Hmmmmmmm.....)
And no doubt, he's did NOT wonder why nobody tried it before...
(?The EA-400 thing, just a failed attempt to integrate a third engine, rather than four).
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Baron95,
"Even I was wrong on the airframe. I thought the tip-tanks would cause handling qualities and performance issues".
B95, I think maybe you were not so wrong after all !
(That auto throttle option- oops, sorry- "standard feature"- better be coming along pretty darn soon !!!)
Don't be too hard on Dave. After all he does know how to use Google search and Cut&Paste in Windows - but so does my six year old daughter. But she does have original thoughts on here own.
I'm so glad you volunteered to give your original thoughts as to how Eclipse will reach profitability! You can explain the price/volume for Eclipse to reach this while also factoring in two factories rather than just one.
On the other hand, Eclispe "enthusiasts" and "suporters", don't get carried away - huge challenges remain.
What has happened here is that a multidimentional problem became much simpler. Several variables have been eliminated:
Can EASA be secured? YES.
CAN "Final" Gavio NG 1.5 config be secured? YES.
Is there something nominally unsafe about the EA500 and it got cerified only because of FAA meddling? NO (as EASA took yet another independent look and certified the plane.)
So now, anyone considering an investment has all the info on hand: cost to produce, final cert by the two most critical agencies, accident history on 250+ planes, etc, etc.
Will they put the money in? $200M for the whole company? Is there a better bargain in GA aviation today? Sure, buying Eclipse for $50M as DIP with liabilities erased by the BK courts.
So there you have it - will the investors put the money now or hold out for a post BK?
That is the question. But it is a "simple" one to answer. After all, all the info is on hand. No speculation required. Run the numbers, check your appetite and make the call.
baron,
in 2006, even december, this would be a very nice day (although autothrottle is still missing)!
Now, there are about 240 customers waiting for promised features.
Fact is, what ... some more certs at the bell or in ABQ, but no FIKI etc. at "Ken"'s FPJ and empty pockets in ABQ.
Is this cert another "first flight"?
If Ken comes up with 2M$ (or less!), has no problems with his a/c,and EAC in good health - he might be lucky - no question about this!
There are the words of the widge and RP about production lines in ABQ and ULWW - they not "certified" by the EASA cert!
Julius
P. S.: Good luck to the FPJ-pilots
Genau , julius !
the question worth about 10$ : is cert. only based on quality ? ;-)
still i fail to see the prodigy :
10 years+ (+++)
One Billion burnt
600 Millions unpaid
in need of 300 millions fast ...
for a start-up which managed to assemble a plane which is certified on both sides ... but one side ask for some items that are present on none yet ...
still the mud-pit theories , an other billion burnt , i might be willing to seat into one .... Naww , just kidding !! ;-))
i propose a new name :
Sturzkampflugzeug !
just hope no one get hurt !
So now, anyone considering an investment has all the info on hand: cost to produce, final cert by the two most critical agencies, accident history on 250+ planes, etc, etc.
Baron, siply blowing me off and saying just produce 3 units per week for $2.15M each doesn't address what Roel himself has said publicly:
A 33 percent price increase to $2.15 million hasn't dented the 2,600 aircraft orders worth almost $3 billion, though customers have until the end of September to request a refund."
Delivering aircraft quickly enough has been problematic, but Pieper sees a boost ahead.
"We will get about 1 to 1.2 over the next five months." Profitability will be reached with 1.7 to 1.8 deliveries per day in a seven say week. The rate this year has lingered below one per day.
"The entire layout of the factory was built to get to 2.0 without problems. I think the whole goal of getting to 1.7, 1.8 is a reasonable goal. It doesn't say 2 and a half.
I don't want to overstress it, but that will give us an opportunity to get to profitability in Q1, March of next year," adds Pieper.
The new order at Eclipse is bouyant about the future
You've given no reason why Eclipse would be profitable at $2.15M and 150 units per year. Eclipse has quite contrary to what you've been saying, trying to increase output above 1 unit per day rather than trying to decrease output to 0.5 per day because they've said they've been losing money. Nor do you address Russia - is the 3 per week split between the ABQ and Russia or is each going to do that many with the total annual valume for profitability to be 300 units per year? You blowing me off and the faithful insulting me does not address these financial (and sales) matters.
Hey, Kenny ! Good to see ya !
You must be like the rest of us "cockroaches", you won't just give up and die, either !
And, you brought a friend to the Playgroup, welcome E-pomegranite !
It's still a shame you f#$%&^&*@ won't just go away. But, someday you will, when your FPJ looks like THIS
Happy Trails ! Keep in touch !
EVRYONE HERE SHOULD READ BARON95'S CONGRATULATORY POST REGARDING EAC... AND AGREE.
This is a remarkable feat, a feat many said would never happen - they made it happen, and, wish them well.
I am learning a lot, here... and hope, one day soon, I realize the errors of my ways regarding who is going to buy these planes at the price and quantity they require to make any money.
This should be fun to watch... I hope they get the financing (another miracle...)
This would even mpress upon me that VErn was not so much a magician - if someone else can do it... the next round is going to be very difficult to obtain.
Kudos to Al Mann for putting up more money - this guy is the real deal - big balls.... trying hard to make a miracle happen, and making it happen, if he was the recent check that kept the lights on.
BIG KUDOS...
IS this the end of the road one way or another? No..
It is very encouraging, and there is some light...
Let's see a big market form, and then we can all agree... AC did it! The blog did no harn... despite Vern obvious consternation... and rewards of EAC were worth the risk.
For now, I congratulate Ken... he hung in there, and hung around here... and his plane is a more marketable jet today, than yesterday.
He's looking pretty smart -
Fly safe, enjoy, pray for more funding and let's hope for a large market for this plane at $2.xM...
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