Thursday, November 20, 2008

A nuclear winter looms

The Wedge was at the VLJ Forum in West Palm Beach, FL, on Tuesday 11th November. He provided the ‘closing comments’ that day, and I’m happy to share with you a fuller transcript than has heretofore appeared in the media. Originally I had intended to run with the entire, but some of what he said was so indistinct it didn’t make the recording and parts were also rambling, to put it politely. I’m sure you will all find it most ‘amusing’.

“I’m surprised you’re all here. I had heard the VLJ revolution was over. I’m happy to be here.”

“A couple weeks ago, 10 days ago, I was in Amelia Island. I flew an Eclipse there. I was invited to Edsel Ford’s 60th birthday. Edsel said to me “This is the challenge. Our business depends on one thing--scale. It’s not about the car we build, it’s that we build it on a large enough scale. We have to get to that level that we break even. We know we’re making the right trucks. We know we got a great product in Europe. But for us to bring one of those cars to the States, we can’t just shut a factory down and start making Fiestas. It would be multi-billion dollar investment. Overnight we saw attitudes in America change. We've sold pickups for 60 years, and now we think we've lost all the customers who don’t use pickups for a living.”

He then moved onto what the transcript describes as being the ‘key discussion’ during the day.

“This is a business of scale and capital formation. I’m really good at that. I'm probably the only person in this room who has raised $1 billion in capital. Don’t know if that’s good or bad, but it’s a fact. How do you do this? Not a lot of ways right now. There's a lot of discussion about organic growth--that's a fancy way of saying you fund it yourself. I don’t want to take a drug from a drug company that used organic growth to develop that drug. This industry is time intensive, it's regulatory intensive, it's capital intensive. And it can’t be done by raising a million from family and friends. Piper said they can build a jet for $150 million. At Eclipse, we had to build the whole infrastructure from scratch. About half a billion was spent getting the aircraft through cert. Half of that, $250 million, was because we had to start over a couple times. There was the failure of the Williams engine. I praise P&W. I’ve been criticized in the media for saying the problems were due to vendors. I’ve never said that. If one vendor--in a chain--fails, that’s a big problem. Ask Boeing (about the 787).”

There you have it. He’s actually boasting about blowing a BILLION dollars of other people’s money, and now tries to rub their noses in it by saying he had to ‘start over’ several times. There were several remarks about Williams, and P&W. Needless to say, they were self serving and no longer relevant. The Wedge then moved back to his core premise:-

“This is a business of scale. If you say we’re going to produce 30 a year, that’s going to drive capability, cost. The thesis here that I’d like to explore is that it's time to change the definition of VLJ: Value Light Jet. That's the real theme. Now were finally talking about facts, not database speculation. We have real facts. "We have seen the dogs eat the dog food." Ed proved it this morning. Bill [Herp] talked about it. It is happening. The underlining theme is one thing: it’s about value. Most of their customers are not coming out of NetJets or the airlines. They're coming off the highways. How do you get these people off the highway? Offer them a better value. Offer a different set of values: time, convenience, safety. It will be different for every consumer. Truly on demand and customized.”

The only thing that Ed proved was how to go bankrupt in under a year. Mind you, he did have help from his ‘friends’ at EAC, so it was not a solo effort. Despite the visible proof that there is no ‘air taxi’ market of sufficient size to drive real volume, The Wedge refuses to drop the shovel he’s using to dig the hole he’s in and continues.

“I’d like to see VLJs and air taxis---VLJs are an enabler. Any one of a number of airplanes will work. VLJs bring a new dimension. Here’s a little secret the Eclispe 500 is the airplane I wanted. A ‘turbofan’ Duke. What I wanted was a jet that was like a Duke. That’s what the Eclipse started out as. The ultimate owner pilot aircraft. It is still the core of who Eclipse is selling to, especially since the demise of DayJet. Don’t associate air taxi and VLJs. Air taxi can thrive and succeed without VLJ, and VLJs can survive without air taxis.”

Drivel, pure drivel. I can’t make sense of what he’s saying, and I don’t think he can either. Is it that DayJet shows you can’t run a small scale taxi operation, or that the whole idea is a distraction and the real market is the ‘owner pilot’? And then, for no reason I can fathom, he is recorded as saying next:-

“I was involved in early stages of development of PowerPoint: I have made 2 promises to myself: I quit shaving. I don’t use PowerPoint anymore.”

I don’t know why he said this, or the link between facial hair and presenting ideas, but he said it. As usual, he can’t avoid a direct lie. PowerPoint was bought by Microsoft from a Macintosh developer in 1987. The Wedge left Microsoft in 1982…

“We were convinced (old partner, college roommate) we could sell computers to people just like Pacific Stereos sells to people. Thought it would take 6 months. It took 10 years. That industry is 12 times faster than aviation industry. I look at the VLJ industry and say it’s not going as fast as I would have liked. I want things to happen 10 faster than physics says it can. We’ve got 400 airplanes 260 Eclipse. Cessna 250. The safety record is phenomenal. People said, “It’s going to be the next doctor killer, the next Bonanza.” They say to the owner-pilot, “You’re a good pilot, except you’re not professional. Screw you asshole.” Cirrus killed lots of people. After 2 years Eclipse has 2 accidents, both runway overruns. Cessna and Eclipse take a different attitude toward training. I think we’re doing pretty good. People out there don’t want us to succeed. This is an industry that eats its young. Capital formation very difficult. It’s difficult because it requires a lot. It can’t be done in your garage. It requires lots of capital, lots of patience. It’s fraught with people whose comment to anything new is “It can’t be done. It hasn’t been done, so it shouldn’t be done” or “Well if it could have been done, we would have used King Airs.” Bullshit. The airplane doesn’t make a flip bit of difference.”

Now now, lets keep the language clean around here. The Wedge gets back into paranoid mode:-

“It’s a willingness to take risks. Entrepreneurship. This industry has lost its spirit of entrepreneurship, and it’s phenomenally sad. This is an industry, if it doesn’t change attitude, its approach to innovation, disruption [is in real trouble] Early 2001, Russ Meyer--who I admire, he made Cessna what it is---Russ is a great man. Russ sought out two off my largest investors to tell them it was stupid of them to invest. “It won’t work” It didn’t help my cause, someone of his magnitude, credibility, stature, to seek out investors and board members to say don’t do this. That’s what I’m talking about.”

See, everyone was out to ‘get’ him, all them dinosaurs from the existing aviation community. There are evil men everywhere, bent on browbeating a saint who never lifted a feather to any of his competitors. Shame on them. The problem with his views on these matters is very simple, and may indeed indicate a deeper psychosis. Everyone else is wrong, because The Wedge is always right. There are a range of medical conditions and personality disorders which we could consider, but this is an aviation blog, not a medical one.

“What am I going to do next? I don’t know. I’m an entrepreneur. I know how to take risks and I’m proud of that. It’s not the first failure in my life, and probably won’t be the last. But we need capital, and the future of capital is pretty bleak. I think we’re in for a tough period. We’ve been drunk on credit for a decade. But that’s a free economy. This isn’t new news.”

Probably the most sensible thing he said for a long time. Are you listening Roel? This chap claims to know more about the market than anyone else, and he says the future is bleak.

“We have never had financial global systems so completely interwoven. It’s really scary. Problem is that we have an increasingly uneducated electorate. I still think the best comment: Warren Buffet---time to be fearful when everyone’s greedy, be greedy when everyone else is fearful. Intense fear right now. I’m very concerned about attitudes. I don’t share Ed’s pessimistic view. We’ll emerge differently, but not necessarily right away.”

Ed was clearly better informed than The Wedge. If anything the short term outlook is getting worse.

“Where will I end up? Where the capital takes me. Green tech is very hot right now. Am I going to start a nuclear power company? That has it’s own set of regulatory complications. I don’t know. When I do, I’ll let you know.”

There you go. Watch out fellas, he is thinking of going nuclear. Clear out those old bomb shelters and lay in a stock of food. The Wedge wants to go out in a real blaze of glory.

“People have asked me if I’m going to be the next Secretary of Transportation. No way in all of God’s green earth. If I were to go to DC, I only wonder how long it would be before I blew up and went postal. No. I’m not politically connected enough. I didn’t vote for Obama. One article said I was a member of Obama’s aviation staff. No. I feel like Sarah Plain. No I’m not going to be the Secretary of Transportation or the next FAA administrator. I’m not going to be involved in government. I’ve watched that town suck the life out of [people]. Not a good place. It is a profoundly and decidedly negative place to exist.”

As far as I remember, the only one promoting The Wedge for Washington was Black Tulip! Does he not have one nice thing to say of your national capital? I think the monuments are quite nice, and I understand some of the food can be very pleasant. But no, he’s feeling negative about it. I wonder if it’s because of the FAA? Ah, here we go, a fully fledged rant:-

“We are in for a tough haul with the FAA. We’re going into the dark ages. It is all politically motivated. 100 percent political. The Congressional hearings on Eclipse had to do with unions. I am the only one who has the courage to stand up and say this. They’ve had it out [in - ed?] for Hickey and Sabatini. Their cronies, led by Oberstar, sucked up to them. They planted stories with USA Today. It’s all politics. The FAA is unfortunately subject to this. One way to describe it, there are people in government that think the government is the only one capable of doing what’s right and correct. They believe that from a regulatory standpoint, the only people who can truly enforce are government.”

Really? So, EAC were correct and the FAA were wrong? Does that mean that the TC and PC were delivered after political pressure was applied? Lets see how he squares that one.

“We did face challenges with certification. We chose to do a lot of things differently. Eclipse 500 never had an electrical failure. People said we couldn’t build digital electrical system, and now Bombardier is duplicating that system for the Lear 85. John Hickey --who I have more respect for---his comment was to me, “Look Vern, our guys in the field are not the best engineers. We have those people, but you have to remember, the safest word for bureaucrat is no. They’re only good at approving things they’ve seen before.”

So the FAA people in the field have no idea what they are doing. Therefore, they were not qualified to issue the certifications. So the FAA HQ people did it for them. But the FAA are not political. Hang on, The Wedge said they were. I’m confused…

“80 percent of Eclipses are not in air taxi. One of the good things about my departure from the company [I got an Eclipse]. I flew on average 25 hours in the last three months. I just go. Put as much gas in as I can, go as long as I can. The airplane has 300 hours. It just runs. Just get in, start and go. Part of the problem is that I know too much about the airplane. Every time I land somewhere—I was at AOPA talking to Ed Bolen and Phil Boyer--two owners came up to me and thanked me for the airplane. One of the schizophrenic problems that Eclipse has. There is the 5 percent asshole quotient, but owners love them. It does exactly what it says. We screwed up on some things, and some vendors screwed up. There were some problems. But it’s an exceptional airplane. With a good tailwind, you can get 10 miles per gallon. At one airport, an old B17 pilot came up to me and said how the great airplane was. He didn’t know who I was. When I hear things like that, it makes all this worth it.”

This is called MBWA. Steve Jobs did it at Apple before John Scully fired him. It’s short for Management By Walking Around. As far as The Wedge is concerned, everything in the garden is rosy because people he bumps into tell him it is.

(Asked from the floor about the future of Eclipse) “I don’t know. I have zero association with the company today. That is partially their choice, partially my choice. I made decision, some on the board wanted me to stay, I knew it would be like going from captain of the ship to third officer or worse. When I’m not happy, I’m destructive. With my personality, I couldn’t handle that. I’m not good at being Number 2.”

Ask anyone Wedge. You were crap at being ‘Number 1’…

“Why have I been vilified? That’s a tough question. I watched it happen to one of my best friends: Bill Gates. We were playing golf one day, when he was going through all that shit with DOJ. People were saying, “This is a bad, evil person” Bill said to me, “All I thought I was doing was making life easier for people.” I talked to him recently about what happened it to me. The reason I got fired was simple, I pissed off the investors. I stood up to them, didn’t want to do what they wanted to do. When you’re CEO, your job is to lead, to decide. Board approves or disapproves. If they don’t like it, they have one choice: accept it or fire you. I didn’t leave, I got fired. I was going in a direction that the investors didn’t want to go. So they fired me. When it isn’t working, you fire the coach. Why I was vilified? I don’t know. It’s because I’m such a warm, fuzzy person.”

Name dropping was always one of his minor sins, so we’ll let that one go. But false modesty never looks pretty on the Curriculum Vitae.

“I’ve been scoured in the blogosphere, all by people who are “idiots and cowards.” (to quote Sarah Palin) They do it through anonymity. I’ve never shied away from saying “You’re an idiot.” You look at these postings, and they’re all by people who are anonymous. They’re cockroaches trying to hide under rocks.”

Hello, Mr. Wedge, your favorite cockroach here. Are you ‘name calling’ for a reason? Is it because Rich Lucibella stood up to your SLAPP suit and put you back in your box? Do you think, like I do, that the exposure you provided this blog was one of the bad decisions that got you fired? What exactly is your problem with the First Amendment to the Constitution of the United States anyway? I’ve a load of questions, as do a considerable number of reporters I know. Care to answer any of them? Or have you crawled under a rock, grown a beard (it doesn’t suit you, by the way) and hope people forget how you burned a self-confessed ‘billion dollars’ of other peoples’ money? You know where to find me if you want to unburden your tortured soul.

“Eclipse is a FOQA-approved agency. We used that data to identify problems. The Midway throttle problem: massively misreported. It was a failure mode we did not anticipate. When you really slam on the throttles-it took 45 lbs of push. One of the problems Eclipse foisted on itself, engineers happier than a pig in mud that they have so much precision. In the case of the Eclipse, that fault condition--not a failure--latched in 200 milliseconds. We did research turns out on Cessnas FADEC 2 seconds-6 seconds. They latch 50X slower than Eclipse. So the Eclipse did what it was designed to do. Turns into a big deal with NTSB. Emergency press release. By the time it was released--by the way, we had already done that. Sturgell asked Mark R. (NTSB) --WTF?? Mark said, “You know that’s how the game is played.” That’s a direct quote. But when I say it’s all politics, people say I’m a jerk. Personal vilification: something needs to be changed.”

Yes Mr. Wedge, it’s clearly everyone else’s fault. You had no personal responsibility for any of it. People in aviation will be happy to work with you again, I’m sure. As I will, the next time you start to rip people off. And the time after that. And after that. I know you fancy dabbling with nuclear power, but remember that most scientist agree with the following. After you trigger your ‘nuclear winter’ the first life to reappear will be the cockroach.

I’ll be waiting for you.

Shane Price
Proud custodian of Stan’s legacy.
November 2008


444 comments:

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airtaximan said...

EVRYONE HERE SHOULD READ BARON95'S CONGRATULATORY POST REGARDING EAC... AND AGREE.

This is a remarkable feat, a feat many said would never happen - they made it happen, and, wish them well.

I am learning a lot, here... and hope, one day soon, I realize the errors of my ways regarding who is going to buy these planes at the price and quantity they require to make any money.

This should be fun to watch... I hope they get the financing (another miracle...)

This would even mpress upon me that VErn was not so much a magician - if someone else can do it... the next round is going to be very difficult to obtain.

Kudos to Al Mann for putting up more money - this guy is the real deal - big balls.... trying hard to make a miracle happen, and making it happen, if he was the recent check that kept the lights on.

BIG KUDOS...

IS this the end of the road one way or another? No..

It is very encouraging, and there is some light...

Let's see a big market form, and then we can all agree... AC did it! The blog did no harn... despite Vern obvious consternation... and rewards of EAC were worth the risk.

For now, I congratulate Ken... he hung in there, and hung around here... and his plane is a more marketable jet today, than yesterday.

He's looking pretty smart -

Fly safe, enjoy, pray for more funding and let's hope for a large market for this plane at $2.xM...

julius said...

Fred,

There are the words of the widge and RP about production lines in ABQ and ULWW - they not "certified" by the EASA cert!


sorry that should read:

There are the words of the wedge and RP about production lines in ABQ and ULWW - they (the words) are not "certified" by the EASA cert!

Julius

P. S. The aircraft hmm ...

Zed said...

Haters,

As the blog transitions from the “nope, ain’t gunna happen” to the post-cert world, please take a few minutes to consider the definitions of the following words … and do a self determination of where you might best align.

Affection
Avocation
Affliction
Affectation
Vocation

Here are some hints …

Ken operates with affection, we don’t always agree, but we know where his motivations are.

Most of the rest of us take this on as sport. We can take it or leave it, and generally admit when we are wrong and only boast moderately when we are correct.

If you find yourself too close to the bottom of the list, you might want to:

(1) get out of the basement
(2) actually fly a high-performance airplane from the left seat (even in the EU that is the command position)
(3) take the opportunity to thank the staff “currently” at Eclipse. (I say currently because anyone lucky enough can be a plank owner, anyone can ride the good times, but the folks there now hung in when all reason was inclined to bail out.)

Zed

Turn-And-Burn said...

For Dave, since he appears to have missed these links in his endless/mindless Googling...

http://www.krqe.com/dpp/news/business/business_ap_eclipse_certification_200811211116

http://www.aopa.org/aircraft/articles/2008/081121eclipse.html

http://www.ainonline.com/news/single-news-page/article/eclipse-500-gains-european-type-certification/

http://www.amtonline.com/article/article.jsp?siteSection=1&id=6841

http://www.newswest9.com/Global/story.asp?S=9392500&nav=menu505_2

http://kob.com/article/stories/S672891.shtml?cat=504

http://www.kvia.com/Global/story.asp?S=9392500&nav=menu193_2

http://www.kdbc.com/Global/story.asp?S=9392500&nav=menu608_2_3

http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2008/11/21/319199/easa-nod-for-eclipse-500.html

http://www.aero-news.net/LinkToArticle.cfm?ContentBlockID=9860add4-3b1b-47e8-9797-221ab627c4c1

http://www.koat.com/news/18034022/detail.html

http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2008/11/21/ap5728165.html

http://www.portfolio.com/news-markets/national-news/ap/2008/11/21/eclipse-receives-european-ok-on-very-light-jet

http://moneycentral.msn.com/inc/news/providerredir.asp?feed=AP&date=20081121&id=9399791

EclipsePilotOMSIV said...

Stick, if you want to call me Mike Press, go ahead. You would be just as right if you called me John Travolta. Which is dead wrong. Your inaccurate "reporting" amuses me.
Bill I appriciate your comments on my posts. I have been a little aggressive as of late. Simply because you guys have no expirence with the airplane and say it such a bad plane. Get some expirience with it. Until you do so you can't really say you know anything about it.
In addition, I am damn proud of what I have accomplished in my life. So you say I mention it too much but you know what? I will simply continue. Call me cocky, I don't care.
I would like to make it clear that Vern Raburn is no longer associated with Eclipse, therefore I could really give a care about him. I just think it is funny that Stick has such a hard on for him. I do however have a vested interest in Eclipse, I want to see the plane succeed. It is a good plane, but I am not going to waste my energy trying to prove that to you.
Bill, if you would look a little harder you would find that Shane references his "working pilot" friend quite a bit. I am not 100% sure but I think a whole post was based on what this man has said. His working pilot simply has his head up his ass when concerning the E500. Thats all. He doesn't state facts, and they should not be billed as such.
Let the negative comments begin! And GO!! (by the way I am sure there are spelling errors here, don't bother commenting, I already know, and don't care. Thanks.)

bill e. goat said...

B95,
Critical mass.
Of money.
Acquisition cost for EAC is, as you point out, a relatively minor issue.
Operating expenses are.

I believe that so far, EAC has been blessed with an endless supply of money. (More or less- less of late). But they still aren't profitable.

And it's NOT because of R&D costs. (Those have been relatively inconsequential for the past 18 months, relative to other expenses, based on forward progress anyway. Although that IS sort of like watching a turtle race:).

So, even if somebody buys them, how "endless" will the new supply of money need to be, in order to get profitable?

Consider Mr. Pieper's observation that it will take 1.7 to 1.8 per day, 7 days per week. Then say, add in a fudge factor of 10% for reality adjustment.

(By Eclipse standards, that is a PHENOMENONALLY LOW fudge factor, but I'll give Roel the nod for being dramatically more reality-based than his predecessor).

So, that's 700 airplanes per year- just to break even. Does a rail road spur run to Double Eagle? Maybe that's where they are expecting to unload the "money train".

Now, figure- how many real orders are left from the original whatever- maybe a few hundred? Maybe 600-ish?

Now, how many NEW orders have there been in, say the last two years?

Why sink $1B, just to establish a break even point; and- lose money every day until you get there- arriving just in time to see your order book exhausted?

It's enough to make a person's head spin- even THE REAL FRANK CASTLE (although some might opine that such activity would resemble Linda Blair's neck exercises.)
NOT the REAL FRANK CASTLE

(Frank- welcome back, by the way! :)

Dave said...

For Dave, since he appears to have missed these links in his endless/mindless Googling...

You must be proud that your daughter has superior intellectual abiilties than yourself. By the way, you "mindlessly" re-posted one of my links and you didn't actually link to the EASA cert itself, which I did. You still can't explain how Eclipse will be a sustainable business and by simply posting links right after insulting me for doing so, you're only highlighting that you can't explain how Eclipse will be a sustainable business with two factories - let alone just one factory. However, if you wish to just post some more links and not offer original though, you'll only highlight this even more. Roel says the ABQ factory was designed for 2 units per day and needs 1.7 units per day to be profitable, so you can post all the certification links you want in bold and it doesn't change this. Posting all the links in bold you want regarding EASA certification also doesn't address the 800 unit per year Russian factory, but in fact highlights that now the Russians are going to want see results for their $200 million.

Zed said...

O'Misive,

For someone so insolent and inaccurate, and for the sake of all working pilots everywhere ...

Let it go dude!

Build a bridge. Get over it.

Regarding “Sticks” … I am quite certain you don’t realize you are actually complementing Shane with that nickname. Sticks, for the number on the side of the aircraft, represents the leader … a person worthy of emulation. Good job! We concur and appreciate that compliment.

In case you meant it derisively, perhaps you should get Dave to do your Google searches from now on.

Zed

p.s. While Shane might be off, your particular syntax has been age-typed and spotted in other fora where identities are not as easily masked. Don't go there so we don't have to either. To save you the indignation, no that was not a threat. (By the way, there are no spelling errors in this post. Fora really IS a word).

bill e. goat said...

Shane,
I believe you have inadvertently contributed to reactivating the Friends of Vern club.

Henceforth, referred to as FOW.

(I wondered why Wedge was circulating the airshow circuit... maybe membership comes with a secret Avio fault code decoder ring...)

fred said...

julius ...

yes , as you wrote ,they don't know what the word "certification" mean over here ...

the plant(s) are to be , the managing staff is to be , the service center is to be ...

i suppose the Christmas party in Koln office is going to be well provided , this year since they have found a generous donation ...

still , i see lots of hurdles to be jumped ...

factories (one to be kept alive the other to be built , if ...)

staff , who is going to remain confident in any of the two ...

furnishers , who is still onboard ?

lawsuits , how many yet ?

profitability , i see this event as hole in finances for the next few months ...

probabilities to survive , now real orders backed with real cash HAVE to materialize , no more excuses possible , just at the time the € has lost most of its added value ...when Euroland is in Recession for at least 12 to 18 months (and then end of recession is not right away in economic boom ...)

situation for Kenny remain exactly the same ...
his EGO has had a boost today ...
his plane had added items ?
added value ? added attraction on second-hand market ?

as much as this is probably the final call for ABQ ...

I really hope for Kenny the orders from Europe are REAL , otherwise it is going to be like the 700B plan , a week of "champagne for all " after an eternity for the hang-over ...!

EclipsePilotOMSIV said...

"your particular syntax has been age-typed and spotted in other fora where identities are not as easily masked"

Zed once again, good job. You have pointed out that I am a younger man. You should work at a carnival and guess peoples ages.

Zed said...

EclipsePilotOMSIV –

Even better. I will be formal while I debunk you.

When you say …

Simply because you guys have no expirence with the airplane and say it such a bad plane. Get some expirience with it. Until you do so you can't really say you know anything about it.

Perhaps a little test for you. Kind of a put-up or shut-up.

Given the following conditions:

Chicago O’Hare Runway 04R
Runway Temp = 100*F
Dew Point = 90*F
Wind = Calm
Altimeter = 29.50
Gross Weight = 5900 pounds

Questions:

What percentage of Max Takeoff Weight is 5900 pounds?
What is the V50 speed and distance?
What is the AEO second stage climb rate and gradient (%) ?

IF you fly the Eclipse, that should take you around 10 minutes to do the math.

What say you?

fred said...

zed :

are you being bad with this poor soul? ;-))

you should have added in the calculation :

plant A : never been profitable ...
plant B : remain to be built ...
Order book : nearly exhausted ...
spread $/€:back to almost normal...
plane: 30% more expensive ...

so taking care of the above :

if before , in full blooming Eco. , profitability was never reached , how many have to be built in one day to eventually repay investors without screwing them in a BK ?

i am sure a 6 years old girl would find the solution in no-time ! ;-))

EclipsePilotOMSIV said...

Zed,
What are you trying to prove with your math problem? That a high school kid with a E6B and the Internet could answer your question?

What are your qulaifications sir?

I don't have to prove myself to you to make the critics accept me. I know two things I am a pilot and one of my planes is an Eclipse, end of story.

Zed said...

Beta Two Point Oh –

I can recast the question in SI units or furlongs and fortnights, but irrespective of the format, you are either able to answer it or not.

By the way, my 5 year old can determine the answer in less than 1 minute. Of course, he has been around the airplane all of his life.

Z

Zed said...

OMSIV –

Actually not.

You need specific knowledge of the Eclipse 500 to answer the questions.

Since you are in fact “EclipsePilotOMSIV”, and deride other for their lack of knowledge of the airplane, this should be a simple chore.

Time is ticking …

Zed said...

Abusive –

Isn’t that special !

Now go away.

Zed


Shane … Probably not Mike. Even though Mike is an Air Force guy from the Show Me State, he has WAY more class than that.

Zed said...

The Answers

What percentage of Max Takeoff Weight is 5900 pounds?
100% at 4518 foot DA

What is the V50 speed and distance?
103 KEAS at 3979 feet

What is the AEO second stage climb rate and gradient (%) ?
1454 ft/min at 9.2% for 559 ft/nm

Ken, Mike, others … please feel free to comment.

EclipsePilotOMSIV said...

Zed you really didn't prove anything there, with the exception that I am not Mike Press. I never claimed to be, Shane just guessed that. I have also heard I am Shari Meyer, Ken, and I name dropped John Travolta just to round things out

I'm sorry I don't have to play your games either, for the same reasons as Ken doesn't have to tell you what is going on with his other A/C position.

Sorry about the abuse but it rhymed. Your 5 year old probably can do that too.

Shane Price said...

Mike,

No, I didn't 'guess that'.

Someone, close to you, told me.

And please, for your own sake, moderate the language. After all, younger people are watching.

Shane

Dave said...

I get criticized for bringing up sustainability, yet here is Roel completely poo-pooing Baron's idea of 150 units per year as well as talking about the production rates at both ABQ and Russia:
"In fact, such problems can be traced to a series launched too quickly and personal disagreement between former CEO Vern Raburn of Eclipse and a member of the U.S. aviation authority FAA," says Pieper. "Eclipse Aviation is too soon start production from the blocks left. It is not enough reflection on the optimization of production. That led to too much rising costs in the current production of 25-30 aircraft per month. Therefore we had to intervene and do things differently to address. The whole production process is currently being examined by an independent agency scrutiny. Based on their findings, we adjust the process. We are working already with a plan for short and long term stress and the resulting components systematically off. I am however convinced that the basis is sound in principle and we get around the case. Ultimately we want on the two production lines in America and Russia will reach an average production of aircraft to 1 ¾ per day. "
Luchtvaartnieuws:Jetmaker receives European certification
So you can throw stones at me all you want or blow me off, but that doesn't address how Roel is claiming Eclipse needs to produce and sell 1278 units per year (3.5 units per day). Eclipse/ETIRC did double their troubles with the second factory as now both factories have to average 1.7 units per day instead of just the one in ABQ. Maybe if enough people throw enough stones at me and other bloggers that will generate some sales, but I doubt that is a sustainable strategy that will get 1200+ units per year. Keep in mind Roel said 1.75 units per day at each factory earlier this week, so this is extremely current.

Dave said...

Let me make a correction to my last post. It isn't clear from what Roel is saying whether the 1.75 units per day is for each factory or for both, but whether we are talking about 600+ units per year or 1200+ units per year, that is an awfully tall order to sustainably produce and sell.

bill e. goat said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
bill e. goat said...

Zed and EPx,
"O;Misive" ??
Perhaps better the crime of OMission, than of COMission.
:)
--------------------------

T&B,
Although for some reason I feel like I will probably end up regretting this...

Zed's 5 year son taught me how to insert web sites a bit more elegantly.

If your web site is say:

www.wedge.com
(o-kay, I have to admit, curiousity got the cat, or goat, here. I busted out laughing).

And suppose you want to refer to this link as "Wedge is an idiot"

then type the following, and include the space between the a and href. Some weird UNIX code thing, I guess. With a few practices, it goes well- use the "preview" thing rather than publish, to make sure it is formated correctly. Type the following, except when you are doing it for real, use a > instead of the *, and use a < instead of a # symbol- I had to use these, to keep it from automatically doing what I am trying to illustrate- it's that cool and easy.

*a href="www.wedge.com"#Wedge is an idiot*/a#

Wedge is an idiot
(My appologies as apporpriate...any resemblance to real persons is strictly accidental- OUR wedge has avoided being real for quite some time...)

Look up HTML on the web, and you'll find similar stuff for bold (b instead of a) and italic (i instead of a, I think).
-------------------------------
His 5 year old also shared his crayons, and I made a bunch of cool pictures, but I don't know how to use the scanner- sorry.

He promised to demonstrate that after I mastered drawing straight lines.

(Sorry, I got Zed's 5 y.o. mixed up with Fred's 6 y.o...Higher math is NOT my specialty).

x said...

Serial Number 259 test flight

First test flight in a while.

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

People really need to read the EASA Type Certificate to understand what it requires and as has been pointed out, it does NOT authorize EASA OPS-1 so no commercial operation.

There is an SB which may or may not have parts associated that must be complied with, plus compliance with all of the previously issued FAA AD's, plus specific AFM and AMM Supplements, and very importnatly, DIFFERENT Airworthiness Limitiations.

While congratulations are in order to the team that accomplished this, especially being able to overcome the battery, fuel shutoff and engine fire extinguishing issues with ELOS findings and special tests - I am surprised that EASA accepted that - this is not in keeping with my personal experience with EASA which is similar to the way the Eclipse FAA certification did not match my own experience with FAA.

Call it a question mark.

At the end of the day, Eclipse has an unbelievably complex configuration management challenge that has now gotten worse, not better.

And that still does not touch on the business plan issues, the support issues, the morale issues, the supplier issues, the disgruntled customer issues, the pending lawsuits, or the lack of a financing package to carry them into 2009.

Zed said...

Bill E.

Only male children here. You were probably talking to one of his girlfriends while he was out schooling EclipsePilotOMSIV.

Thanks for the catch on "O'Misive" ... as I both forgot the second S and forgot that missive is Middle French and not Irish (a play on his previous O'Shane jabs).

fred said...

dave :

you are right !

the rat is cornered , less and less doors open to pretend this or that ...!

1.75 per day , 5 working days a week = 412 per year
([52weeks - 5 vacations] X 5 Working days X 1.75)

very far from said profitability ...
so it is by one factory = 412 X 2 =824 per year

it's quite good to produce , but it is better to sale ...

at 2.3M$/piece , i am not sure the profit is huge (logistics itself is going to be a mess , debts servicing a killer )

still the good old trick , mass-production has nothing to do into this , peoples are not going to buy Jet like bread and cookies ...!!

Dave said...

Didn't Eclipse already add these to the order book?:
Pieper said the EASA certification will allow Eclipse to add 300 European aircraft orders, including 180 orders for Turkey, to its books, bringing the total outstanding orders to about 1,100. He also said the company expects to obtain new orders in Europe due to the certification.
Eclipse receives European OK on very light jet

fred said...

Coldwet ...

your experience is not wrong ...

think more of "no one want to bear the blame for sacked peoples , lost investment , missed opportunities !"

what is the point of giving a kiss to a dying body ...

Dave said...

1.75 per day , 5 working days a week = 412 per year
([52weeks - 5 vacations] X 5 Working days X 1.75)

very far from said profitability ...
so it is by one factory = 412 X 2 =824 per year


Eclipse has based it on the 7 day week, not the 5 day week, unless something has changed.

fred said...

then dave , if it is a 7/7 ...

it is even making less sens ...

at 5/7 , to the orders touted = it is 1 year and a half of production ...

at 7/7 , it is a year ...

may be i am totally stupid , but who think an investor is going to burn so much money , for being exactly in the same situation as now in ONE year ??? !!!

fred said...

doesn't make any sens , still !

and EASA prescribe NO COMMERCIAL !

i am not even sure there is enough aeroclubs in Europe to buy one each and reach that level ...! ;-)

eclipso said...

As I stated in an earlier post...having seen the ABQ factory..There is NO WAY to build 500 planes per year, even if they did have the market

julius said...

Fred,

"champagne for all "

yes,
but for the owners who are waiting for the promised standards.

Perhaps you know the definition
Leistung = Arbeit* /Zeit
or in English
rate power ("performance") = work*/time
* fulfilled
That is pure physics.

But in real live that is "misused" for everything esp. work overtime, achievements etc.
If someone says "I worked a lot and finally..!" the answer will be "Performance is work/time, thank you."

Things are different on the other side of the pond!



Julius

Dave said...

There's now another Eclipse case in the NM (rather than the Fed) courts:
AIR CANNES MEDITERRANEE V ECLIPSE
This in addition to the other NM court cases, which I believe these are for refunds:
MAYER CAPITAL
COMAC CAPITAL
While thise case I don't know what it is about with the retraining order and injunction:
LOUIS ABRUZZO
These cases are in addition to the ever-growing list of federal cases.

gadfly said...

Zed

In your "scenario" (at ORD), you might make it past the United Air Lines Freight area, across Mannheim Road, and pull in for a Pizza up on Higgins Road . . . and pick up your luggage on E. Toughy Ave.

But that's as far as you'd get.

And maybe not!

gadfly

(Once, a long time ago, a private DC-3 came in low on 14R . . . or left . . . and landed in someone's front yard . . . it was winter, cold, etc., and everyone walked away.)

Dave said...

As I stated in an earlier post...having seen the ABQ factory..There is NO WAY to build 500 planes per year, even if they did have the market

Possibly Eclipse meant only 300 units per year in ABQ if the 1.75 units per day was meant across both factories. Even if that is the case, good luck selling 300 units even if you can make 300 units...let alone doubling that figure.

Dave said...

Here's Air Cannes talking about their Eclipse order

Zed said...

Gad -

I arbitrarily selected an airfield and runway to get a decent PA/DA and have sufficient length to make a solution possible. Then I tweaked the weather to get a 100% takeoff weight factor.

The cabin load is the same one I used to show that Ken’s Mexico Junket was feasible. I then dropped the fuel to set GW at 5900 and make the math easier for everyone.

Whether you would need to grab a soda at the Overrun Fly-Through is another story.

The FPJ for all its issues has decent get up and go. I have never observed it NOT make the numbers.

I have flown a few ground lovin' machines, and the Eclipse 500 is not in that category.

In summer 2006 we observed the FAA/Eclipse team (yes, they were operating as a team) doing V1 Cuts one late HOT afternoon.

At first we thought we would be eye witnesses to a disaster, but the little jet did great.

The wing and engines have their critical influences (temp, PA, etc.) but when flown within the envelope it is NICE.

Zed

x said...

Brochure on Cannes Jet Club
Very detailed pricing on a JetCard/fractional ownership hybrid model. Note that Cannes had a progress payment bump that tracks the Eclipse payment schedule. If they forwarded these payments to Eclipse they are on the hook to their "club" members.

The first Cannes plane flew to Europe in May.

Dave Ivedorne said...

EclipsePawnBrokerOMFG said:
Yeah Dave you know you may have not said the E500 won't get EASA. Considering your major contribution to this blog is surfing the internet and posting links.

You *do* realize that when Google needs to find something truly obscure on the internet, that they "Dave" it, don't you?

Belittle away at his work here, just try to understand the value proposition he's brought: Wedge accused a bunch of bloggers ( in court ) of stealing his prexious secrets and spreading them all over the interwebs. Dave demonstrated that none of his "secrets", were secret.

-------------------------------------------------

The Real Frank posted a link to the Brandywine Carcass.

I put in a bid of $10,000 for it, but they said they wouldn't pay me that much to get it off their lawn.

-------------------------------------------------

Congratulations to Ecorpse on EASA certification. I'm being sincere when I say that I hope it is the critical step that allows them to succeed, and make their customers, employees, vendors, and investors whole. Having said that, I still believe it's too little, too late, and with too much money already having passed under the bridge.

Would you like the combo?
DI

gadfly said...

Zed

Once in awhile, when the bird factory had enough funds to "fill up the tank", the little things would flutter overhead. Under most conditions, I would not doubt their ability to get airborne, and either head out to Arizona, or get over Sandia Crest. But a plane that started out to be "MTOW" of about 4,800 pounds, and now needs to shop at "Big and Tall", at 6,000 pounds would have me a little concerned. I like having some reserve . . . I'm basically a "chicken". Even in the Submarine Service, they had to find us . . . then "if found", we didn't have as far to sink . . . to the bottom. (We "were" found, once . . . it took us a couple days to get out from under some bad folks that didn't want us in their harbor . . . not very friendly . . . we were only "lookin' around", so to speak.)

All that time working at ORD, I remain amazed at all the stuff we loaded aboard . . . and it actually got off the ground.

So, an "empty" little bird can do great things. But I wouldn't wish to push it to the limits, what with a "Microsoft" type intelligence.

And (as a licensed A&P, pilot, and machinist/manufacturer/designer of aircraft devices/tooling/components) I know far too much to ever sit back and relax in this contraption.

But you pay your money and take your choice.

gadfly

Dave said...

I read the SAP (the spanish company) lawsuit against it Eclipse and it sures looks like somebody made out like a bandit! SAP wasn't an original depositor with Eclipse, but rather paid for a position from Eugene Warner for premium of $335K over the $150K deposit back in June of 2007 and this was done with Eclipse's consent. What pissed SAP off was that they were ready to sign a purchase agreement, but Eclipse delayed and then didn't send them purchase agreement until after the price increase was announced. Then after that SAP figured out that Eclipse was having financial difficulties. So at least somebody made a good deal of money off Eclipse.

Turn-And-Burn said...

Cold/Wet said... I am surprised that EASA accepted that - this is not in keeping with my personal experience with EASA which is similar to the way the Eclipse FAA certification did not match my own experience with FAA.

Perhaps it is just your inexperience with the Eclipse. EASA must know what they were doing. You had such faith in them to supposedly deny this outcome. Sorry it didn't work out for you. Were you getting your misinformation from Freddy???

Turn-And-Burn said...

Freddy said... think more of "no one want to bear the blame for sacked peoples , lost investment , missed opportunities !"

Oh, this is ripe. Freddie thinks that EASA is having pity for Eclipse so they overlooked any concerns is safety so that the company could be saved.

Dave said...

You had such faith in them to supposedly deny this outcome. Sorry it didn't work out for you.

While on the other hand I did think they were going to get EASA, but you've yet to explain how Eclipse is going to sustainably produce and sell 600-1200+ units per year or on the other hand you can say that Eclipse doesn't have a sustainable business model.

Turn-And-Burn said...

eclipso said...
As I stated in an earlier post...having seen the ABQ factory..There is NO WAY to build 500 planes per year, even if they did have the market


Let me write that one down. We have it on good authority.

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

Ken-And-Vern,

I have more EASA programs myself than all of the Eclipse certification staff - not bragging, just fact (and yes, I know who they are by name and reputation).

I never said they would not certify the 500, I said I would be surprised if they did, and I am surprised as I explained in my post. EASA accepted a large number of ELOS findings, even about the battery issue, the fuel cutoff issue, and the engine control issue which flatly runs counter to the issue papers and the publoic position of the regulatory authority.

I know you Faithful think this is a great thing, and it is an achievement, but I don't think you understand the stress and issues it creates by introducing yet another configuration to be managed, more differences fleetwide, and the whole ETIRC thing.

And it still does not address the failure of Eclipse to EVER sell enough planes in a year to even approach their stated breakeven point - and that is the 800 lb gorilla in the room you Faithful continuosly ignore - when Vern could go blow his nose and come back with $150-300M at a time that was not as pressing an issue, but maybe you didn't hear it, THEY MISSED PAYROLL LAST WEEK and it loooks like Al Mann is the reason the folks in ABQ got paid.

Vendors are rumored to be owed as much as $200M and shipments are stopped.

The most critical vendor they have at this point is taking a $6M charge this year and for all intents is preparing to lose or leave the program all together.

Taken individually, any one of those issues would drive the pucker factor up against 10, fortunately for Eclipse, their pucker meter goes to 11, courtesy of Nigel Tufnel.

airtaximan said...

party-pooper...

cam said...

FreedomsJamTarts-

You were wondering whether ISS bailed on Eclipse. The answer is yes. This from their most recent shareholder's teleconference:

"Alex Hamilton – Jesup & Lamont Securities Corp.
And I guess lastly I just wanted to clarify or have you clarify if you could, is the Eclipse completely written off or is there
still some liability associated with it?

John C. Long (ISS CFO)
I don’t – Geoff, Roman do you want?

Roman G. Ptakowski (ISS Pres)
Yes. We have, Alex, we have no expectations from the suspended situation we have with that VLJ OEM.

Geoffrey S. M. Hedrick (ISS CEO)
And we wouldn’t have any expectations until it’s cleared up. We took a conservative and we think a prudent approach,
especially in the existing economic conditions of saying okay, when we have a clear understanding of what goes
forward we will be able to re-establish what we believe are our –

Alex Hamilton – Jesup & Lamont Securities Corp.
Okay. Great. No I would agree that was a great move."

As for ISS' involvement with Eclipse, I believe they supplied the glass including the software that operates it. I would be very suprised if ISS did not own the IP on that.

bill e. goat said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
baron95 said...

Dave, get something straight. There is Vern/RP's statements to the press with the sole objective of raising *BIG* money for a *BIG* bang land-grab, IPO, etc. And then there is the ACTUAL way that the new owners and even Vern/RP have run, are running, and will run the company.

Hyperbole is the fuel of venture investments.

You can google past quotes from Vern, Roel, etc and try to force them to run the company like they run the press. It ain't happening. Give it up already.

WATCH the actions, don't google the words.

WHAT WAS THE FIRST THING ROEL DID WHEN HE TOOK THE RAINS?????

SLOW PRODUCTION.

Again for you....

SLOW PRODUCTION TO 1 PER WEEK.

Google all you want about his statements of 10+/week. Reality is that, 1 year from now, *IF* Eclipse is in business, it will be building 50-150 jets per year. Just like Cessna (Mustang) and Embraer (Phenom).

Give it up. There is no management by Googling. It is management by action.

Capiche?

And yes - there may be no way to make money. So what is new? GA has been losing money and going out of business for 2 decades.

So are US Legacy airlines, Detroit automakers, farmers, etc.

Yes, Eclipse will be AT BEST limping along just like Piper and Diamond and TBM and HB, and maybe closing shop just like Mooney and Adam, and Grob.

That is par for the course.

The fact that you even want to debate that Eclipse will be producing 10+ planes/week and be wildly profitable cause me to question your grip on reality. That is a settled matter - REGARDLESS of anything RP say to raise money from naive investors.

Just like people bought subprime mortgage backed securities, CDO and swaps, some people will invest in Eclipse. That is just how it is.

There is a risk taker for almost anything on this planet.

Some drive their AMGs at twice the speed limit, some try to jump accross the grand cannyon on a motrocycle, some invest in GA startups.

Doesn't have to make sense to happen? Or didn't anybody tell you that investing is NOT a rational activity? Neither is GA airplane ownership.

I'm as much a fool to own a plane as RP is in investing in a start up that builds them.

So what = c'est la vie mon ami.

bill e. goat said...

D.I.,

"You *do* realize that when Google needs to find something truly obscure on the internet, that they "Dave" it, don't you?"

Well, I did say I'm stupid and lazy. But I didn't realize I was THAT stupid and lazy.

I have a tendency to skip the trash talk, it's simply not worth the few seconds it takes to read. And I'd encourage others to do the same if they find it agitating, whether it be a post from me, or whoever.

(It is important to allow oneself to be intellectually challenged. But once the source of the challenge has been identified as either intellectually dishonest, or intellectually inadequate, it is appropriate to dismiss and ignore such a party's comments).
---------------------------------

And as such, I had skipped over snipes at Dave's posting- I had noticed them and just thought "yeah yeah, bitch, bitch, bitch".

BUT, when I read D.I.'s post, I realized, to my shock and dismay- horror, actually- what was going on: THE DAVE, OUR DAVE, was being sniped at !!!

Dave has posted a STUNNING amount of GREAT information.

And I appreciate it- VERY MUCH!

THANKS DAVE!!

PLEASE KEEP UP THE FANTASTIC WORK !!!
-----------------------------
I sadly likewise marvel at the ingratitude of people who deliberately come to the blog, and then complain about the blog.

If you don't like the blog, then don't come here. But respect the time our dedicated hosts put in to it- first Stan, now Shane.

And it's not just OUR blog- it truly is the public's blog. Every bit as much as the public library is. Okay, maybe a private library, but it's open to the public.

IT'S HARD WORK, AND THEY ARE DOING IT FOR FREE, AS A PUBLIC SERVICE.

Denigrating it and disrespecting our hosts is just so sickening to me.

It really is one thing to disagree, quite another to disrespect.

Stan and Shane have posted a STUNNING amount of GREAT information.

And I appreciate it- VERY MUCH!

THANKS GUYS!!

PLEASE KEEP UP THE FANTASTIC WORK !!!

baron95 said...

DI said... The Real Frank posted a link to the Brandywine Carcass.


Wow - Does any body know if that was declared a total loss (insurance)? I think it *may* not be a hull loss. Hard to tell from the picture (did the mains drive through the wings?).

That hull may fly again - keeping the EA500 still at zero injuries and zero hull losses.

bill e. goat said...

B95,
My comments were not specifically directed at your comments.

(That does seem to have come out a little obtuse, but I think, there is a precision there: that really is the most appropriate type of "argument" here, rather than challenge each other, we challenge each other's positions).

BUT I DO HOPE DAVE GOOGLES EVEN MORE, THANK YOU VERY MUCH.
-------------------------------

Now then, if we can move past bloggers blogging about bloggers (inclusive), I'll comment on your post, rather than you or Dave.

I have not really been paying attention to what Roel says, but rather on what he is doing.

And, I think he's doing good things.

I tried to see the same effects from Wedge, but didn't see anything good. So, I resorted to paying attention to what he was saying, and saw it was idiotic, and only an idiot would believe it.

Sometimes Roel says things that seem unrealistic to me, but I do believe he is making real, positive progress, so I'll continue to wait and watch.

Not waiting for him to fail, but waiting for him to succeed.

baron95 said...

And on other news, it appears that Eclipse Engineers and Production Managers/Workers are acting as consultants to Boeing on the proper way to install fasteners on the 787. Furloughed Eclipse workers will help Boeing replace 8000 fasteners that were incorrectly installed on the first 12 787s.

If only Boeing had taken Eclipse's recomendation to use FSW on the 787, the 787 could have flown with only 18-months of delay. Now? It is up to the retreaded Eclipse workers that assembled the smallest jet to fix Boeing's best hope for the first half of the 21st Century.

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

FSW on a composite airframe?

Sheesh!

baron95 said...

bill e. goat said...
B95,
My comments were not specifically directed at your comments.


And neither were mine directed at yours - just some general observations.

I'd like to start a rummor search.

What are people hearing as far as the possibility of an established OEM picking up Eclipse.

In my mind, it would make sense for a HB or TBM (now that EADS is spining them off/out). But of course, it is Bombardier that has the history of growing by wild acquisitions. And with the Canadian $ at parity with the US$, it could be cheap?

What are you guys hearing? What do you think are the short list that has/is taking a look?

Thanks in advance.

easybakeplane said...

Baron said:

"That hull may fly again - keeping the EA500 still at zero injuries and zero hull losses."

---------------------

Not likely. I've seen people pay to repair planes that look almost this bad that are worth $5-10M, but considering the amount of paperwork, manhours, and new parts (if you can get them!) I think you would just buy a practically new one for around $0.5-1.0M

Of course, this owner might be able to sit on this and have himself a goldmine when other owners start needing parts that are no longer being made...

------------

PS - Zed, that was mean! (and right on target)

As I said before, Test Pilot syndrome...although that phrase seemed to 'fly over' the heads of some of our resident pilots, but most of the 'train drivers' seemed to catch the full meaning.

easybakeplane said...

Baron said:

"What are you guys hearing? What do you think are the short list that has/is taking a look?"

-------------

Cessna - Mustang, 'nuff said...but for a bonus, the fact that they are unhappy with their most recent acquisition should seal the no-deal. (they are in full budget-scare mode right now)

HBC - Same as Cessna, full budget-scare mode, and they don't have any money anyway, I think someone said they are paying $X00,000 (per day or week?) in interest on their own debt!

Bombardier - they didn't even look twice at Grob, why would they be interested in EAC? (they have always said they are not interested in the low end of the market)

Gulfstream - haha! S/A Bombardier, but have their hands completely full already and are outsourcing work as fast as they can...

------------------------

If any OEM looks at EAC, it would probably be purely to suck any worthwhile people out of the place.

Dave said...

WHAT WAS THE FIRST THING ROEL DID WHEN HE TOOK THE RAINS?????
SLOW PRODUCTION.
Again for you....
SLOW PRODUCTION TO 1 PER WEEK.


You're right. He didn't pay the bills and as the debts ran higher and higher, the less and less he could do. By the way, if what he was saying was "hyperbole" to get investment rather than due to financial problems at Eclipse, wouldn't it have made more sense to increase production rates (or at least keep them the same) to lure potential investors to buy the company if this is all about finding some mark? I do have a specific recollection of how depositors (along with suppliers) thought they'd get their refunds because his taking over was part of some new round that would pay all the outstanding bills, but no - fiscal problems couldn't have had anything to do with the production slowdown. Also looking at what is actually going on, haven't you heard about the parts shortages? Either commercial operators are making this up or perhaps such things could have some slight impact on production volume. You're acting like a guy who couldn't even make payroll can just produce however much he wants, but it was a business decision of his rather than one forced upon him due to NSF.

Google all you want about his statements of 10+/week. Reality is that, 1 year from now, *IF* Eclipse is in business, it will be building 50-150 jets per year. Just like Cessna (Mustang) and Embraer (Phenom).

You've still not addressed on how the division of labor is going to be - is that 150 in ABQ and 150 in Russia, 75 in each location or what? That you question the very existence of Eclipse as a going concern, yet you cannot see or will not admit Roel might not be in the driver's seat. I guess you for instance heard about ISS, but that is through googling, so you're not letting that get in the way of your view that Roel can manage however he wants just he is making the production volumes himself without suppliers not getting paid impacting this.

Give it up. There is no management by Googling. It is management by action.
Capiche?


Yes, do you? I look at Eclipse's actions while you are just pulling stuff out of the air.

The fact that you even want to debate that Eclipse will be producing 10+ planes/week and be wildly profitable cause me to question your grip on reality. That is a settled matter - REGARDLESS of anything RP say to raise money from naive investors.

Perhaps I'm not the one who has the problem gripping reality as I've been repeatedly saying Eclipse has a flawed business model and is DOA. If you think I've been saying Eclipse would be wildly profitable, I've got to wonder what you've been smokin'.

bill e. goat said...

Hi B95,

I've wondered the same thing about a friendly takeover of EAC. I haven't heard any rumors, but will share my thoughts...
----------------------------------

I think Bombardier is focused on upmarket.

Although, historically, they are a diverse company: aircraft of all sizes, power products, water craft, ATV's and motorcycles, snowmobiles, defense, rail.

(But I think lately they've been "focusing" and selling off some divisions- not sure just which ones, I read somewhere "motorsports" type stuff to the original Bombardier family ).

So maybe a "EAC division", ala "jet ski" division or something, but I don't see it fitting into the Canadair-Learjet family.

And Bombardier does seem to have some serious coin, after their finance challenges of the mid 2000's, what with their C-series and Lear 85, as well as some other product upgrades, being all concurrently active. But their stock is tanked lately, so I'm not so sure.
--------------------------------

I personally think the EAC would fit in the Hawker-Beech model line up very well, but don't think HBC has the bucks to move on it

(But note they don't seem to have a corporate aversion to "NIH" (Not Invented Here):

The Mitsubishi Diamondjet evolved into the Hawker 400, their JPATS trainer is a tweaked Pilatus PC-9, and Beech/RAC "rolled in" the Hawker 125, evolved to the 900 now.
----------------------------

I think Piper would be better off buying EAC, rather than fiddling around with VLJ's themselves- they just don't have the R&D capability, or deep pockets, for it, especially with the present economic climate.

And, apparently, Piper did go out to ABQ a year or so ago, considering building a plant there- so why not just buy one?
-----------------------------

Gulfsteam, maybe?

Well, they did go downmarket to acquire the 100/200 line, and seem to have deep pockets.

(But it does make me think of the fairly dismal results when Cadillac came out with the Cimarron though).
Cadillac Cimarron
-------------------------------

I also think it would make sense for Cirrus to acquire EAC, that would seem to be a very harmonious marriage. But I don't think Cirrus has the bucks to make it work- too bad, I think that would be the best match.
--------------------------------

I don't see our European pals getting invovled, except to move the whole thing- maybe ETIRC will do just that eventually.

But Sukhoi- they seem to be a pretty inovative bunch. Fred ??
--------------------------------
Disruptive thought of the day:
Maybe some Japanese wantabe trying to keep up with Honda. Fuji? Mitsubishi? Toyota? (The only rumor that seemed to have any traction was that of Toyota, a while back. Didn't seem to go anywhere though).

Or maybe Honda, coming out with an even smaller jet engine?

TBMs_R_Us said...

"There's no success like failure, and a failure is no success at all."

Bob Dylan

eclipso said...

Dave I said:

"I'm being sincere when I say that I hope it is the critical step that allows them to succeed, and make their customers, employees, vendors, and investors whole."

Really, all I care about are the friends I've talked to in the past few days, and hope they can make it through the next weeks (holidays), then .....PLEASE...get the hell outta there

eclipso said...

"Let me write that one down. We have it on good authority"


HuH?Does that mean they can?...doubtful...however, I did forget about the factory at Double Eagle..then it MAY be possible..so how's THAT project going?

FreedomsJamtarts said...

How does the EASA cert change anything?

There are about 145 A/C delivered which have AvioNfG, and a few upgrades may have been performed, so there is a chance that some of these A/C may appear on EU registers, but....

Didn't Ecorspe just loose that AvioNfG screen and integration vendor? At least swapping avionics venders is a core competence for Ecorpse. How many ship sets of AvioNfG do they have on stock? How long before a replacement vender is found, qaulified, certified and delivering.

Don't they have a design which needs 1.7 deliveries per day to break even at $2.15 million + CPA?

EASA cert is the lipstick for Ecorpse!

fred said...

freedom :

it doesn't change things a iota !

out of the peoples who could buy a Jet in Europe , how many actually want one ...?

out of those , how many are not served yet ?

out of those ones how many would like to have an expensive toy like the Fpj ?

out of those ones and due to competitor already better provided in terms of reliability , service , customers service , reputation , etc : how many are going to choose a plane at 2.3M$ instead of a plane at less than 3M$ but with a good coverage of service-centers (certified) customer-service (certified) trained mechanics and electronics (certified) to fix any problems ..?

so FPJ in Europe : may be a few tens , if things are really good !!

if you take into consideration a few things :

Not a single yet with EASA characteristic ...

Not valid for commercial use (Bye-Bye Air-Taxi)

Not a wide market for the bird

then why the EASA wouldn't take a share in the cash-orgy ?

it is called "play on all side of the board ..."

risks of actually having a bird in here are remote ,Buddies in FAA won't have any arguments to postpone Cert. for EADS products ...

after all , NOTHING has changed , EASA sounds like an other money-drain ...

isn't it what is called a Pyhrric Victory ?

fred said...

Julius :


i forgot to explain from yesterday :

Sturzkampflugzeug =

plane dreaded in european skies !;-))

Deep Blue said...

Some may be overestimating the significance of prelim EASA cert. CWMR has nicely summarized the context. I do not see this event as anything more than yet another "stunt" like the first flight with the Williams engine.
Etirc is just hustling an exit for themselves.

There is no viable going forward operating plan, cet or no cert.

Indeed, the E500 was US certified; what happened here? What did cert have to do with the underlying product, market, production logic, after-market and competitive choices? The US market for the E500 is idle if non-existant but for a very small niche population of owners that will undertake the aircraft as their "jet" possession and as a hobby product concerning support.

Cert is no strategic silver bullet and of no siginificance to the real structural issues/impediments CWMR outlined (among others).

Moreover, like CW, I'm very suprised to hear what is being touted in the press. Not very confidence-inspiring vis-a-vis european GA manufacturing insight.

There are likely a dozen or more "landmines" that will eventually be uncovered concerning how the E500 was built, what deviations were sustained in manufacturing, what short-cuts were taken, what flaws in materials may have been deployed (fastners, for example).

So now E500 is EASA certified (sort of); so would you now invest your money in ETIRC, Russia et al?

Dave Ivedorne said...

it appears that Eclipse Engineers and Production Managers/Workers are acting as consultants to Boeing on the proper way to install fasteners on the 787.

Baron,

Do you think they'll recommend using Huck rivets with Cherry tools?

I suspect their role is more along the lines of "day labor" - but, this being aviation, Boeing doesn't have the option of driving a stake-bed truck down to the parking lot at Home Depot to satisfy their present need for it.

Pay at the first window,
DI

Shane Price said...

Baron,

First, I should declare my hand.

There a few 'credible' purchasers of EAC, from any sector at this time, in my opinion!

Not one (from what's come to me) of the established companies has been mentioned by any serious source.

A couple of people have speculated over time about Honda, but that is only (in my head...) because many ex EAC heads are working there now.

There was one mention, very soon after I 'took over' of Embraer, but that again faded once they announced their own service centre.

About 7 months ago, after they restarted Coloumbia and just before Vern was ousted, I had one suggestion that Cessna were thinking about a 'take out' type of bid.

Recently the only speculation has been around 'Russian' money of unknown origin and that one rumor that The Wedge was trying for a rematch.

Other than that lot, nothing to report.

Shane

julius said...

Fred,


that is true!

But if RP's 12 week wonders are with Boeing and now are repairing the 787 - then I prefer the FPJ!

How is Ms. Peggy going to explain the benefit of the EASA cert to her work bees (How many are left in ABQ?)? I hope she will do!
"Next pay check is sure,... Chrismas...ask Roel or Vern?"
or
"That was the reason for the last pay check delay - you had one day off, ahhhh.. unpaid - ask Mike!" ..,
or
"Read our press release!"


Julius

BricklinNG said...

Great Orders from Europe?

Perhaps a European reader will comment further, but based on my experience with GA in Europe (UK in particular) I would think that the potential demand for an EAC jet would be a fraction of what it would be in North America. Think about Europe vs. USA

Distances are shorter
Trains are excellent
Speed limits are higher
Fuel, fees and all costs of GA are WAY higher
Per capita GDP is less
There is social pressure for "sameness"

What have I missed?

Add it all up and sure it might be possible to sell a few in Europe but I would think less than in USA and the number they can sell in the USA at $2.3 m is yet to be determined.

There was a RP interview on Friday that was arcane. Perhaps someone can find a reference or transcript.

airtaximan said...

my favorite article so far...

http://www.businessweek.com/
ap/financialnews/D94JGMFG2.htm

Roel: "I think you can say that that original business model idea just didn't work," he acknowledged. Eclipse's founder and former chief executive Vern Raburn was removed from his position in July in a management shake-up."

So, I guess they are smart enough to deviate from Vern's global domination plan... I wonder if they can attract risk capital, based on a revised more conservative plan...

In the same articel they claim all but a few of the 1100 orders are at the $2.1M price - I call BS, just my opinion except for the fact that almost half those orders are from Roel himself and companies with no ability to buy.

Lowering volume WILL increase the cost... they admitted they could not come close at a selling price of $1.5M and endless volume - and IIRC $2.1 was supposed to be profitable, but still at high volume...

Reconciling the Russian factory (Dave's favorite subject) is going to be really special - forget the Russian factory plus the US factory, and a high price... and lower volume.

I would contend, forget the $2.1M price and any real volume either, or even profits at $2.1M... due to higher parts cost due to lower volume.

I still don't see it... but I'd be willing to learn how these changes in pricing and manufacturing strategy will result in lower cost and profits, or higher voluem and profits.

airtaximan said...

http://www.bizjournals.com/
albuquerque/stories/2008/11/
17/daily30.html

crazy to see EAC as a multimillion dollar creditor in a BK

good article as well...
big mess

Dave said...

Reconciling the Russian factory (Dave's favorite subject)

I point it out only because BK doesn't magically make it go away nor does BK automatically revoke the other reigional rights that ETIRC has. Simply prentending that ETIRC's manufacturing and distribution rights along with the Russia deal don't exist doesn't make them go away nor does an Eclipse bankruptcy. If someone else wants to by worldwide rights to Eclipse, they'll have to deal with ETIRC and perhaps the Russians as well - BK or not - or else the new owner will not have worldwide rights and thus their production volume will be reduced.

airtaximan said...

DAve,

I love the fact that you point to double the manufacturing capacity as a BIG issue. No joke.

Why would anyone ahve this as a part of a new strategy to replace the old strategy that was based on huge production.

Here, we'll do 2 things: 1, increase the price and reduce the demand... 2 , build more manufacturing capacity.

Hmm...

Keep reminding everyone how bizarre this aspect it - it would appear Mr. Pieper is OK with throwing Vern's plan under the bus - but his own plan is definately more aligned with Vern, than he admits.

So, will he revise his plan to just one plant... in a LCC?

Dave Ivedorne said...

BricklinNG wondered:
I would think that the potential demand for an EAC jet would be a fraction of what it would be in North America. Think about Europe vs. USA

Distances are shorter
Trains are excellent
Speed limits are higher
Fuel, fees and all costs of GA are WAY higher
Per capita GDP is less
There is social pressure for "sameness"

What have I missed?


Far fewer runways in Europe. A much greater proportion of those suitable for a small jet are already being used for transport purposes ( amplifying the effect of the higher fee environment ).

More jurisdictional complexities associated with using controlled airspace.

Contact First Window Approach on 121.2 to pay for your food,
DI

Dave said...

Keep reminding everyone how bizarre this aspect it - it would appear Mr. Pieper is OK with throwing Vern's plan under the bus - but his own plan is definately more aligned with Vern, than he admits.

Yes. People trying to marginalize, ignore or order me doesn't change things. Just because you close your eyes to the Russian/Dutch elephant in the room, it doesn't mean it disappears from reality.

Also keep in mind that all this is relative 1.75 or 3.5 units per day is way less than 5 units per day...even 1 per day is way less than 5 units per day. So Roel can still technically throw Vern's plan under the bus, while still keeping the spirit and premise of it the exact same. In fact it is worse by having two factories, you double your problems with the need to produce and sell in order to keep your head above water.

So, will he revise his plan to just one plant

Yes, I'm waiting for Putin and Pieper to get together and say "April Foolski! We were only joking for the past few years about setting up a Russian plant and ETIRC doesn't actually own the regional rights to the Eclipse 500 as that was all just a big gag."

airtaximan said...

from an investor POV, Russia will be the plant - its at least a good story - "we're going to get the cost down, in Russia with low labor"... "Oh did I tell you about NPO Saturn the engine company and Mikoyen the design bureau? Remember the MiG? Antonov, Sputnik? Yuri Gregarin? Rich aviation history, lots of capability? Terrific low cost labor... industrious..."

I can almost hear it now...

"ABQ cost >$500,000 per plane to assemble...Russia will be less than half!"

It would be a fun bet: Russia or USA... kinda like the Lake Placid Winter Olympics.

Dave said...

I can almost hear it now...
"ABQ cost >$500,000 per plane to assemble...Russia will be less than half!"


That would look real good for Governor/Secretary of Commerce Richardson and the other politicos!

airtaximan said...

Dave:

somehow, they will keep some employees in the US... here will be a transition...to Russia, and it will take a long time. By then, they will do an IPO (somewhere), and it wll be a long time before the chickens come howm to roost.

All Pieper hinks he needs to do is get the production up and running, and deliver some planes on a ramp... then do an IPO and cash out... before his BS orders are discovered.

Just a hunch - look at L+H for previous history, for example

baron95 said...

Nice to see that the very people that claim that Eclipse is DOA and will shutdown the day after tomorrow, are the same ones speculating if Eclipse will produce 600 planes per year in total or 600/year in ABQ plus 600/year in Russia.

Fascinating discussion really.

Dave said...

Nice to see that the very people that claim that Eclipse is DOA and will shutdown the day after tomorrow, are the same ones speculating if Eclipse will produce 600 planes per year in total or 600/year in ABQ plus 600/year in Russia.
Fascinating discussion really.


So who have you heard say that? I've heard Roel talk about the production rates, but I didn't know he was saying Eclipse would be DOA ASAP. By the way, when are you going to answer as to your 150 unit per year claim as to if that is just in ABQ alone or what the division will be between ABQ and Russia?

fred said...

no baron , you don't get it :

what is fabulous is the way Things happen in such a "wonderful start-up"
they couldn't get the stuka certified by FAA , some politicos put a bit of BS-oil into the machine ...

when the thing is on the verge to be a damn fiasco and go to the extent to delay employees pay and one of his supporter (BR NM Gov.) is fearing to have to justify use of tax-payer money ...

he becomes the Commerce secretary ! (how convenient , remember Euroland is producing aircrafts as well , i guess some peoples have learned a lot with Concorde FAA problems ...)

this is democracy ? no , a good old plutocracy of the old days of the Roman empire ...

i guess some start-up played the Mud-pit theory , when it was almost over ... they went to cry with mommy ....!! how courageous ...

fred said...

D.I.

how many Fpj can be sold in Euroland ?

just a very few !

remember the EASA Cert for the plane is the emerged part of the iceberg ...
now they need to have "certified service center(s)" with "certified staff" and "certified management" ...
then they will have to face the EuroLegal System which prescribe a whole lot more than in USA ...
(you have Consumers associations , we have laws !)

on top of that , in Europe there is 2 main types of infrastructure :
west (historical funders of U.E.) where transportation network is about 2 or 3 galaxies wide more developed , efficient and environment friendly that the best of the best i have seen anywhere in USA ... (it is nothing to be proud or ashamed about , just a fact!)
Europeans in their largest proportion are NOT really into flying for any reason ...
we have a much larger network of public transportation than there is airport , which is just the total opposite of USA (as far as i know , after been living about 2 years in USA , public transport are for suburbs , still they are quite bad , and interlinking few cities distant of thousands miles wouldn't make sens , anyway ...)

the fpj is to be NON-Commercial :

so in a place where everything is meant for air-transportation , up to now the money was flowing , they have "lots" of politicos in the sleeve , they couldn't really cut it neat , they have managed to sell (with a REAL EFFECT that can be seen by anyone , not the figures THE wedge or Roel or Mike or Kenny have been touting ...)

ONLY about 250 / 300 ???

what do you think is going to happen , when arriving in a place where Public Transports are Efficient , fast (in some cases faster than planes ) ECO.friendly ,well into the habits of population ....

VS

a plane plagued with a bad reputation , No service , no history , natural aversion of population for using planes to go from A to B (unless it is for pleasure ...) Higher Tax (much higher, but with your newly elect things are set on "changes") much less infrastructures ...

i would say , as a conclusion :

it is still the "good old shitty Fpj" facing a situation where mindset is totally the opposite ...

do you think it is going to cut it ? over the number of US sold ones ? or just a very few tens ?

ps: the eastern part of Europe is either lacking even more infrastructures , or totally pissed-out with USA ...
as Poland or Czech republic as well as baltics states , the tons of money promised for installing the "Missile shield" (respectively 450M$,400M$,and 250M$ each) have gone up in smoke with the Pres. elect ...!

julius said...

D. I.

look ar ATXA (air taxi operators site)!
Most of them do not use FPJs although they have the lowest price tags, lowest fuel consumptions per mile....
To which extend is the productivity of an a/c improved by its speed (remember previous posts)!

Furthermore according to an ESA study most flight legs have length of about 200 nm (airlines about 300nm).
I think there are less "Ken Meyer"s in Europe than in U. S. It is not only a question of money!

A corporate jet, having a range of 700nm rep. 3 hours rmp-to-ramp,
isn't a brilliant idea, if the lavratory is missing!

BTW: Dayjet - I think corporate users prefer a flight confirmation
not later than 24 hours before their flights.

Julius

P.S. In Germany there are about 60
airports with ILSs and (temporary)CTRs - suited for jets.

fred said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
fred said...

julius :

(bonjour pour commencer !)

i was curious to know what is average distance of european doing in a day ...:

99.98% are doing less than 120 Kms (64.80 nautic) in a 24 hours period !

in the ones who are doing more than those 120 Kms , 72.3% rely on public transportation ...

if you take European Pop. = 500 Millions
you end-up with 27700 doing more than 120 Kms per 24 hours and not relying on public transportation ...

out of those , how many have to do more Kms to make it any kind of reasonable to use a private plane ?

probably a very few per cent ...

on this tiny minority , how many are going to go for the expense of a jet ?

even smaller amount !

out of this very tiny numbers , how many are going to decide for a EA500 ?

almost none , if none at all !

so you see , even if EA500 could be used as a commercial , it would not make a difference ...

250/300* in the US means only a few ten(s) in Europe !
(*the one already assembled Minus the one on Controler.com ... i do not believe in the order book , how many are supposed to be "made" to be re-sold straight after ? safe to count ONLY the one already made !)

Germany is one of European country best provided with airport ...

the second "best" being France (as for number of "capable") but most are restricted for airlines , few for Low-cost (Usually the airport lost in the middle of nowhere ) so airport allowed for private are usually aero-clubs more than anything else ....!

private jets in France are very Few ... extremely few ... not because there no financial means for it (remember Dassault IS french) but just no real need ...!

airsafetyman said...

Well, the Pegster said they had an "agreed to line of sight agreement with EASA for full certification within 60 days". Only missed it by a week. Something doesn't pass the smell test.

fred said...

don't worry airsafety ...

this is an other TRIUMPH of "start-up" and the "spirit of free enterprise" ...:-)

where "start-up" is quite old and "free enterprise" isn't free of political pressure and interests ...

real funny to see how much some can be lied and played ....

airtaximan said...

ASMan

Perhaps we need to realize that there is inside information we do not have, in amny cases, and perhaps they are getting their act together.

There are a lot of huge hurdles... but they seem to be making better predictions (as you cite) and perhaps they are going to obtain more capital.

This would be impressive.

More impressive still... finding a way to keep the price affordable for a large enough market.

Maybe they have a plan beyond making sales to "affiliated" companies?

We'll see.

Dave said...

There are a lot of huge hurdles... but they seem to be making better predictions (as you cite) and perhaps they are going to obtain more capital.

The thing is would $300M solve it without BK?

fred said...

airtaxi :

yes , may be ...!
nonetheless ULWW + ABQ = much too big offer for the market ...!

ULWW alone : what about Americans depositors ?
what about the 600M$ still owed ?

ABQ alone = what about russkyi cash ?

whatever the way you present it , it doesn't really cut it ...!

EASA is a (worthless is no commercial) piece of paper ...

what they need is REAL CUSTOMERS WITH REAL MONEY ...

otherwise every 6 months , they will be in same posture than now !
(the bigger is the exposure , the less fools they would find ...)

fred said...

about "better predictions" :

i don't think so !

they are cornering themselves in their lies ...
they just use shamelessly any kind of "little help" from any side it come from ...

i believe (this is hunch , no prediction) they are looking for some kind of chimer , they couldn't make it when conditions were about perfect (in term of money availability )

now that the whole system is almost destroyed by the unwillingness of the bankers to land anything to anyone
yes , after messing the whole world Economy in the multiples bubbles created by "Bubbles-Greenspan" and "helicopter-Ben" (by the way : where are his helicopters spreading cash from the sky to avoid economic downturn , Now ? )

the problem remain the same :

they (the Merry Band) fail to see the times are changing ...

what has been known in USA for the last 10/15 years is definitely GONE !

No More Economic Leadership
(the same than with EAC , leadership is easy to get when playing with others people's money)

No more Short-term interests ONLY !

i guess the time when peoples used to buy stocks and shares of a firm as long term invest. has come back !

and the nasty habit to buy stock , today , in the hope and aim of selling it 10 minutes later with a profit , something that will not occur again before ....!

airtaximan said...

"The thing is would $300M solve it without BK?"

We do not really know. BK may be forced via 3 creditors through involuntary... so maybe this is a done deal.

Everyone is either jumping ship or taking a wait and see... so, it would appear that from a creditors perspective, they are not looking for BK and are being supportive or just writing EAC off.

Perhaps they have faith in ROel and the M-team.

Perhaps they do not even think BK is worth it...

I do think RP has the creditors behind the 8ball... he sorta seems to have tied up the "assets"... through his license - but this is just speculation on my part. Otherwise, what does he have?

- I think the die hards would accept paying for retrofits/upgrades/new avionics... eventhough they were supposed to be free...
- I think someone could convince some of the suppliers to hang in there with the promise (again) of volume...

I just think its impressive that in their condition, they obtained the EASA cert, and convinced someone to pony up money to cover payroll. Imagine the consternation.

My opinion has always been, the bplan of 750 planes at around $1M made no sense, AND that they already knew this a long time ago. The higher price will indeed lower the volume/demand and provide increased costs... their pricng was on a volume curve... there's no volume. Costs will go up.

The only (almost) plausible solution is to produce the plane in an "arguably" lower cost factory. This must be the "Story"..

In any case, its been admitted that the plan failed - this has been my position all along... now Roel admits it.

So, just like we do not have the answer as to "how" this conundrum will be solved regarding higher prices = lower volume = higher costs = lower demnd = higher cost = lower volume... and it eats into "better" product's from other companies at around the same price (eventually).... we cannot say they don't either.

So... let's wait and see.

I give you EASA, and raise you one admittedly failed business model.

I give Roel a lot of credit for admitting it - and hope he has some magic up his sleeve to replace Vern story of a large order book.
- truth is, Roel is touting a trumped up order book, as well... albeit minus Dayjet (a potential competitor of ETRICK) I might add.

airtaximan said...

Fred,

You need to admit yu were wrong regarding EASA, and let it go, pal.

It makes little difference, really in the grand scheme... but perhaps someone is banking on that piece of paper.

Whether they can deliver planes at all, let alone in Europe, is a known fact right now - they are almost dead... again.

But, why count them out? Why surmise they are in fact dead - perhaps someone will write a check.

It has happend before.

Let's see how they will find a profitable place in the market, with this plane that was poorly conceived, from a commercial perspective.

I for one would enjoy understanding more about how they can reprice the plane, keep orders and make money... this intrigues me... especially since they have received $2B or thereabouts for a DOA business model they have been touting as viable for a decade.

Roel says it was a failed model - let's see the new one.

fred said...

airtaxi :

i accept gladly to have been wrong on EASA ...

the only thing i can tell you on subject is : "it is not the quality of the product that push the decision thru ...!"

what i see now , there are cornering themselves in their lies ...

what kind of excuses are they going to invent now ?

too cold in russia ?
New president hasn't paid a visit yet ?
Roel hasn't had an extension on his visa ??

i would be the first to be glad if what they promised could become true ...

unfortunately , on this respect Cert. or NO Cert. doesn't make any difference ...

airtaximan said...

I am amazed he admits its a failed business model - not surprised, just amazed.

Imagine, tons of cash chasing a failed model... suppliers, customers, gov'ts bought in to a failed model...

Dayjet basically blamed the outside world, and Vern always did, but Roel... he just says we screwed the pooch on the whole basis for the business.

Pretty amazing - $2B for a non-starter business...

I wonder when they will awaken to the fact that the plane was also ill conceived... sold as something it isn't.

I sincerely hope they don't just shut down, becasue I would like to see WTF they are going to try next.

Dave Ivedorne said...

airsafetyman sniffed:
they had an "agreed to line of sight agreement with EASA for full certification within 60 days". Only missed it by a week. Something doesn't pass the smell test.

It's not approved for commercial ops, if I read the tea leaves correctly. EASA cert has pretty much defined the FPJ as a personal jet ( not that there's anything wrong with that ).

airtaximan responded:
perhaps they are getting their act together.

Perhaps. Let's remember that before Wedge was shown the door, Ecorpse was pushing 4 or 5 incomplete aircraft out the door per week - each one representing a significant future expense. Mr Peepers has slowed that down to ( apparently ) less than one per week, and they seem to have finally achieved a "finished as it's going to be for now" configuration. No autothrottles? Doesn't bother me at all - Cirrus/Garmin Perspective lacks them, and it's pretty much viewed as the Gold Standard in avionics for small GA aircraft.

So, as debilitating an effect as it's had on cashflow, Mr Peeper's EcorpseNG has displayed some signs of intelligent life inside. Just the same, the business case they appear to be touting is just as fallacious as that promoted by Wedge. The only case that appears even semi-viable to these jaded eyes is one for a pre-packaged Ch11 - but they've actually been doing things to make one more likely to work in the end.

If demand for the product actually exists in significant volume.

Contact Second Window Tower on 119.1 for delivery acceptance,
DI

fred said...

DI

don't forget : BK = Furnishers running away UNPAID !

i wonder how many would dare to come back ?

what's the story again ?
"you got me once , shame on you ; you got me twice ...."

fred said...

and even after a BK ...

what seems to be the most difficult to get :
REAL ORDERS backed with REAL money !

in the time we know now , who is going to buy a toy(personal use only) a 2.3M$ not being sure it is not going to be a "bottomless pit" ?

i see that as a return of "well thought decision" VS " excitation of the moment"

time when everybody could pill-up cash against some weird hopes of profits or usability , without having an atom of the "why and how" (like in internet time) is gone

fred said...

airtaxi :

myself , i wouldn't like to see the thing collapse ...

it"s being so "unpredictable" , so "weird" ...

if it would be a blockbuster from Hollywood , critics would say " it is not credible enough...!"

i wonder what will be in "next episode"

Dave said...

I am amazed he admits its a failed business model - not surprised, just amazed.

But what exactly has he admitted? That Eclipse isn't going to be doing 1500 units per year at the ABQ factory is old news:
“We are still deeply concerned, but I’ve had conversations directly with Pieper and I’m enthusiastic that they will get through this turnaround,” Casson said. “The steps Pieper is taking are severe, but they’re necessary to survive.”
Casson said Eclipse management is now focused on producing only two jets per day in 2009.
“That seems very obtainable,” Casson said. “I never believed Raburn’s ridiculous promises of five planes per day.”

NMBW:Eclipse holds on to customer loyalty despite challenges
I think "only two jets per day" in ABQ still has the same fundamental problems as 5 per day. Going from 5 to 2 (or 1.75 as it might be) is a "severe" change dropping the business model 60% in stated volume and a "turnaround," but that 40% remaining is still a heck of a lot. If Roel was now dropping that remaining 40% by another 50% that would still be a huge amount to produce and sell each year (I'd even be willing to grant that they could produce this amount, just I don't think they could sustainably sell this many for a profit).

Dayjet basically blamed the outside world, and Vern always did, but Roel... he just says we screwed the pooch on the whole basis for the business.

If the "new" business model is around 2 per day, it's still the basic high volume business model as before. I think around 2 per day is "ridiculous" even though it isn't 5 per day - the same goes for 1 per day as well.

fred said...

yes dave ...
still the "good old internet ideas "

do not think of profits , customers , who's going to buy ...

think shares of market , mass production , changing the whole world ...

we are still in "darkening the skies" mode !

the only country i know of , where everyone could buy one is : Abud dhabi , unfortunately ... they are only very few ...

how about selling 4 or 5 to each ? ;-)

fred said...

but "Holding on customers loyalty ..."

this is hilarious ....

how many are suing ?
how feel they have been screwed ?

where are all the Kenny of the world , we need them ...!

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

Eclipse did not, IMO, slow delivery rate out of any newfound intelligence - they do not have parts, or customers.

Hampson is done with Eclipse, no supplier for the back third of the airframe, that is a slight problem.

Vendors are rumored to be owed perhaps $200M and will not ship parts, consider the issues Boeing is having with mis-spec'd fasteners, what if your fastener supplier simply won't ship you any more because you owe them $5M - then consider the same problem for avionics, for actuators, for wheels and tires, for aluminum, etc.

IS&S has suggested that their involvement with Eclipse is done, either due to a collapse of the program or their withdrawal from it.

And then the well established lack of a single year where Eclipse has sold even half as many planes as they need to break even according to themselves.

If they could not sell enough planes when it cost half as much as it does now, who in their right mind thinks suddenly they will sell 2 or 3 times as many planes in a year as in their best year?

Dave Ivedorne said...

Eclipse did not, IMO, slow delivery rate out of any newfound intelligence - they do not have parts...

CWMOR, I realize that. I'm simply reflecting on the massive bit of stupidity ( that we all recognized, and frequently mentioned ) that building even 4 or 5 per week represented, when FIKI and EASA and "final" config for the avionics had not been achieved. Bringing production to a virtual halt relieved us of that particular bit of insanity. Think of it as spotting a tiny flake of gold in a massive coil of dog poop. One still has to search through a massive coil of dog poop, to find it.

Canceling your food order? Is it something I said?
DI

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

DI, my comment was directred against the whole myth of Eclipse voluntarily slowing production, not you specifically.

Can I get some fries with that?

TBMs_R_Us said...

With NM Gov. Richardson heading back to Washington as Commerce Secy, perhaps he will direct some of those bailout funds to Eclipse. A couple more $Billion should do the trick -- save those jobs and all. He could make a condition of it be that no production is moved to Russia! Made in the good old USA.

Dave Ivedorne said...

CWMOR,

Sorry I put you under the impression I felt slighted - I didn't. As much as anything, I was looking for an excuse to use "massive coil of dog poop" in an Ecorpse-related post.

Fries are only available 7AM to 7PM, Mountain Standard Time, Monday thru Friday,
DI

Dave said...

Eclipse did not, IMO, slow delivery rate out of any newfound intelligence - they do not have parts, or customers.

That's how I understood it that it was due to lack of parts rather than a strategic decision on Eclipse's part.

If they could not sell enough planes when it cost half as much as it does now, who in their right mind thinks suddenly they will sell 2 or 3 times as many planes in a year as in their best year?

I think that they could make 300+ units per year in ABQ, but they'd quickly run out of a market for them to be sold for a profit and as such even that business model would be DOA. Even now they are competing with themselves by selling used aircraft and aircraft positions. Who in their right mind would put down a deposit for a delivery years from now and at a higher price, when they can buy an aircraft cheaper and get it sooner on the secondary market?

Also in regards to Eclipse - without BK - charging owners for retrofits and the like that could be very expensive because that would be a breach of contract and any owner who wasn't happy could extract their pound of flesh from Eclipse for the breach if Eclipse had money in the bank. I don't know how well it would do in court, but owners could demand recission (basically annulling the contract), specific performance (making Eclipse do the retrofits for free under duress) or damages. It could potentially only take a few owners for the legal costs associated with charging for retrofits to be even more expensive than if Eclipse kept to their contract. I wouldn't presume that everyone who has an Eclipse would happilly go along with Eclipse unilaterally breaking the contract and charging for something that could be very expensive...if for no other reason than that owners simply couldn't afford it with those new costs (it is just like with raising the price of the aircraft where people had to ask for refunds because they couldn't afford the new price). I can't say it would win in court, but I think a case could be made that charging for retrofits is a "Refund Event" that even applies to delivered aircraft because it raises the price of the aircraft.

airtaximan said...

I would like a shake... pls.

CW, true he involuntarily slowed production... but Vern could have involuntarily stopped production, too!

Seriously, I am just looking at one reported statement, where Pieper admitted they have a failed business model to contend with.

Admitting they (including him, as an investor) were so out of touch, they invested $2B in a business model that was doomed... is very serious medicine.

I would look back to all the folks that said "it will never work", these guys Vern is still harping on, steaming mad -

It did not work. Let's wait to see what EAC 2.0 looks like.

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

The point about the owner's is moot I think Dave. They have shown that for the most part they have battered wife syndrome - if RP says the only way for Eclipse to survive into the future to provide 'reliable support' for them is for the owner's to pony up for the retrofits then the bulk, like Ken, will IMO just bend over and take it.

The owners with any moxy are either waiting for refunds or are suing for the refunds they are waiting for.

Eclipse has already pulled the card that priority scheduling would involve the owner's paying for the retrofits if I recall correctly.

At this point, someone could make a nice little business just to help manage the various configurations that have been fielded insofar as figuring out how to value, train, support and market the half dozen different variations. Putting an EA-500 into a leaseback arrangement could be somewhat complicated right now, depending in serial number and mod status for example.

The Faithful simply do not understand the complexities that Eclipse has brought onto itself do to the poor choices that are the result fo the last ten years and US $2B.

If Eclipse were ONLY meeting their stated break even sales requirement (1.75 a/c per day on a 7-day work week according to RP), they would have already sold 6,370 over the past decade - instead, they have delivered 250 and claim 1100 remaining orders. That amounts to meeting just 21% of their needed level of sales.

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

ATM, Eclipse 2.0 is no different. RP admits the business plan was flawed but has done nothing to suggest there will be a different plan - in fact, he seems to be addressing the hyperbole of Eclipse 1.0 by upping the ante (Eclipski Russia plant).

I am reminded of the lyrics in Henry the 8th, I am, as sung by Herman's Hermits...

'2nd verse, same as the first'

Niner Zulu said...

Did I miss something? Why are the faithful so excited?

No one is getting their deposits back.

EAC still treating their customers like dirt.

The EAC business model is still not sustainable.

Still a couple hundred of aircraft needing expensive upgrades.

Vendors still going South.

Not enough stupid money to keep EAC going for several years while the economy turns around.

Still no market for 500 planes a year.

EASA certification. So what? Who really believes that a large market for E500's exists in Europe. I don't. Fred doesn't and he's there. Just EAC blowing more smoke up everyones ### IMHO.

Nothing has changed.

Dave said...

The owners with any moxy are either waiting for refunds or are suing for the refunds they are waiting for.

The only owner lawsuit I know of is an ex-owner who is suing because they lost money on the sale, so I don't know what you are talking about. Eclipse also has not been flush with cash. If you put strain on someone's family by giving a six figure bill for something you contractually agreed was free, they could have no choice but to take action. We've seen what has happened so far with depositors who are suing for breach...more and more are taking action and that is without Eclipse having hundreds of millions in the bank. I wouldn't consider the owners "moot" because first off Eclipse hasn't been in as good a financial position as they would with a new round and also I would point to what action the depositors are taking with their contract breached (which so far there hasn't been a clear-cut case of breaching the contract - since the owners have accepted the aircraft as incomplete - for the owners, but they would then have a black-and-white breach of contract with having to pay for retrofits). If Eclipse has hundreds of millions, there's going to be lots of people who want their piece of it or who simply cannot afford to pay for Eclipse's re-writting of the contract even if they wanted to just as there have been depositors who went for refunds because they couldn't afford the price increase.

airtaximan said...

CW,

Don't ya just love a straight man?

9Z...

GET REAL, MAN... they obtained a partial "subject to" EASA cert.. C'mon - liven up a little.. pop a cork!

;)

fred said...

9Z

this magician work :

attracting your sight on right hand ,while stealing your wallet with left ...

if the faithful think = nothing has changed , EAC has just an other money drain to entertain ... !

fred said...

TBM :
thanks , you reminded me of an old tutor ...

i kept on saying :

"never forget a piece of shit , even wrapped in golden paper , remain a piece of shit !"

surely NM Gov. can have a load of cash , but why keep on saying aviation ?

"Furnace for tax-payers money" on front door would be more correct ...

fred said...

coldfish :

they lack 1/3 of the back ?

since when it has been a problem for EAC ???

you see now there incomplete and incomplete+ ...

what a value proposition !!!

Dave said...

“Twenty-two planes per month is already an incredible achievement,” Pieper said. “With our re-tooling plan, we can repeat that while focusing more on efficiency and profitability.”

“In Europe we see an order book at least as big, if not bigger, than in the U.S.,” Pieper said. “Our global order book will easily fill the production capacity at both our factories.”

NMBW:Eclipse Aviation CEO Roel Pieper speaks
"We have 300 orders sitting and waiting for EASA approval," Pieper said, adding that another 2,000 orders can be expected in Europe and Russia once the approval becomes official.
Airport Business:Eclipse gets financial backing to build production plant in Russia
Eclipse supposedly being rational and mature now doesn't bear out with having two factories instead of just one. I think it was actually Roel who got Eclipse into having two factories (afterall, it would be ETIRC that would own the second factory) rather than Vern talking Roel into it and saying the order book will be so huge that not just one but two factories will be running at full capacity for years is simply crazy.

julius said...

CWMR,

during cash conservation mode RP/EAC seemded to look for a "very engaged investor" and to get the EASA TC.

Now there is the partial EASA TC.

If the full EASA TC was needed, then RP/EAC will get / will have more money for the complete TC - he/EAC missed the target!


The gambling party goes on:
What happens when EAC will have the complete TC - do the creditors get their money?




Julius

P. S.: Fred - bonne nuit -
you are right with the pyrrhus victory: The TC will more expensive...

Turn-And-Burn said...

ColdWet said... EASA certification. So what? Who really believes that a large market for E500's exists in Europe. I don't. Fred doesn't and he's there.

Oh yes, Fred is there with all the inside scoop. He really got EASA right. What a tool. Why should we believe the rest of his lack-of-useful-information.

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

Ken-And-Vern, I did not say that, you are quoting someone else - please figure out who you meant to quote and correct it.

And while you are at it, care to hazard a guess how Eclipse can survive as a viable company when they have sold less than 25% as many aircraft as they say they NEED to sell?

Dave said...

Oh yes, Fred is there with all the inside scoop. He really got EASA right. What a tool. Why should we believe the rest of his lack-of-useful-information.

Whether Fred is right or wrong, having enough orders for two large factories means there has to be many orders to avoid red ink.

Dave said...

And while you are at it, care to hazard a guess how Eclipse can survive as a viable company when they have sold less than 25% as many aircraft as they say they NEED to sell?

Roel said Eclipse would get 2000 new foreign orders in addition to the 300 existing ones. I wonder who Nimbus 3.0 will be.

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

Therein lies the rub Dave.

Even IF they did magically find 2000 European orders, plus the 300 RP talks about (not clear whether they are already on the books or not - I suspect they are), those 2300 orders, plus the 250 delivered and the 1100 remainin orders (1350) would only total just over HALF (3650) of all the sales they would need to have made over the last 10 years (6370) to achieve breakeven, for the one factory, that already exists.

And it would only represent 5 years of production at the magic break-even number of 637, or less than 3 years at the much vaunted 1000+ per year per factory numbers that have been bandied about by Wedge as well as RP.

The verdict is in and the Shoeless Joe Jackson approach to airplanes (if you build it they will come) is a complete and utter failure, and it has done far more damage to aviation than is recognized by many.

There were only so many twin piston cabin class pilot/owners who dreamed of being jet jockey's to begin with - the guys who were stretching to afford the preemie jet, hoping that operating and support costs would be low enough to offset the cost of capital, and that their portfolio's and home values would continue the irrational expansion of the last 6 years are only about to learn how wrong they were.

bill e. goat said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
bill e. goat said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
bill e. goat said...

CWMOR,
"The verdict is in and the Shoeless Joe Jackson approach to airplanes (if you build it they will come)"

and factories...

Chalk up one for Witless Wedge Raburn

(Too bad for the Shirtless Shorn Investors).
-------------------------------

Turn-and-Burn,
Maybe the wait for your airplane is making you anxious and irritable*.

Go buy a puppy.

(And be nice to it :)

*or...? maybe you have already picked it up- even MORE reason to be cranky?
.)
--------------------------------
Fred,
I was expecting EASA to "wait out" an Eclipse BK, so I was also surprised about EASA approval.

So, the EA-500 can operate legally in Europe, without being treated like a V-1.

(Perhaps for the public's benefit, it would be wise to use the air raid sirens when they are detected in the vicinity though).

Same goes for when the Wedge is spotted!

airtaximan said...

Here's some helpful advice:

" Pieper said, adding that another 2,000 orders can be expected in Europe and Russia once the approval becomes official."

STOP THE BS...

EAC hasn't sold a plane in years -no new positions have been taken (net) in years, and reality is, there won't be a net GAIN for many years.

investors baning on 2500+++ orders will be waiting a long time to hit this number, if ever - this was at $1M or a hefty discount to $2.1M.

This plan will not work...

Please come up with another plan... ASAP.

Shane Price said...

We're at 11 lawsuits against EAC, and counting.

Almost all of them are from depositors, seeking the legitimate return of there money.

These events were 'triggered' by the price increase to $2.15 million, and have nothing to do with the state of the company.

As such, the company should treat this market intelligence with some respect.

Remember, those who've sued are a minority of those who've asked for refunds. The 'order book' is looking more and more like a New York Times bestseller listing.

I'm just not sure if it's in the fiction or the fantasy section....

Plus, the dollar is on the way up (or the euro is on the way down) making goods produced in the US more expensive, and therefore less attractive, over here.

Finally there is the embarressment of the 'top three' auto executives flying into Washington on their private jets seeking a handout from your taxes. This is already causing businesses to question the risks associated with any excessive (or what is perceived as such) spending on jet travel.

'Air taxi' volume orders, after DayJet and this latest media attention?

I don't think so....

Shane

Deep Blue said...

From Dutch translation of an interview with RP from ETIRC:

"The whole production process is currently being examined by an independent agency scrutiny. Based on their findings, we adjust the process."

The "independment agency" that Roel Pieper refers to is a consulting company called "AT Kearney." AT Kearney is a group of people, most of whom have actually never worked outside of giving "advice" and that are conducting a "production blueprint."

Unfortunately, the entire "ETIRC" team is mmade up of "consultants" as well, that have never actually worked in business.

So...what would anyone expect the consultants to tell anyone? Cut costs? Lower production? Raise production? Get better terms fronm suppliers? Outsource? (see Boeing on that one).

This is all a joke.

And AT Kearney will never get their $1MM+ consulting fee ever paid as RP et al are stringing them along; and at any rate, EAC/ETIRC is already "trading whilst insolvent."

airtaximan said...

Shane,

thanks for the post.. I kinda lost the bubble on this whole lawsuits vs requests for deposits back thing.

- how many deposit refunds do we know or think we know of? This is a BIG deal.

great reminder.

Very importnat to keep this in mind - when Pieper says they have XXXX orders, its complete trash.

PS. Did they find and eliminate Flightcenter? He was the keeper of this data for a long time.

Dave said...

Very importnat to keep this in mind - when Pieper says they have XXXX orders, its complete trash.

To futher elaborate on the [in]validity of the order book. Eclipse denies the validity of the refund requests because depositors followed the instructions that Eclipse gave them by telling them to send in the refund document. Of course this is totally ridiculous from a legal standpoint, but it lets Eclipse say the order book is larger than it is. Couple this with all the orders that were placed by Roel himself, which as we've seen with the payroll incident, he doesn't exactly have a lot of money to pay for all the payments on 180 units.

bill e. goat said...

I wish to apologize to EPx and the rest of the blog, for the link I posted a couple of days ago (“Wedge can rub off on you”, which linked to “The Best of Tourette's Guy”).

I had seen some of the TG parody videos, they are generally over-the-top hilarious, and I just grabbed one for the link ("Best of", how much better does it get? I thought- but I was quite wrong- it was course and rude- even more so than the Wedge himself !! .) I'm sorry I hadn't "screened" it before I posted it, and apologize for the crudeness and vulgarity in it.

(It is at the end of a long post, and I'd like to cut it out, rather than delete the entire post- does anyone know of a way to do this?)

For those so inclined...
I've included something more along lines of what I intended to post, but my advice is to use the mute button (wish Wedge came with one of those)- still the visuals are pretty amusing.
Stress at Work- and Home
(I figure the Wedge's last day at Eclipse picks up at 2:10 into the clip- I suspect it's Roel that “gives him the bird” at the end... :).
P.S.- if you see Wedge in the mouse trap section at Kmart- RUN!!

AvidPilot said...

Lest we forget....

ETIRC's office "..headquartered in Luxembourg" is nothing more than a contracted mail drop.

The "partners" in Europe are nothing more than a few guys in business unrelated to aviation i.e. the jewelry business.

The "Russian factory" doesn't exist. Putin stuck his head in an E500 as part of a PR press release. So what...he's probably stuck his nose a lot of places he never intended to go.

EAC is still obligated to deliver a few hundred E500's at less than their cost of production. There's $100 million or so down the drain.

If I were an Eclipse customer, which thankfully I am not, I'd like to see some money go hard and some specific details on how EAC is planning to stay solvent and keep producing aircraft before I pop a champagne cork to celebrate.

eclipse_deep_throat said...

ATM,

I sent this off to Shane earlier today. Sad that I need a bloody spreadsheet to track all the pending lawsuits. Some I found on dockets.justia.com and others were listed on nmcourts.gov. I count 11 open cases just for November.

FILING DATE, Case Number, Plaintiff
11/19/08, 5:2008cv05464, GMI FIRST INC
11/19/08, 1:2008cv01090, DBL Inc.
11/18/08, D-202-CV-200812053, AIR CANNES MEDITERRANEE
11/17/08, D-202-CV-200811984, LOUIS ABRUZZO
11/14/08, 1:2008cv01075, UTAH DESERT INVESTMENTS INC
11/14/08, 1:2008cv01076, SOCIEDAD AERONAUTICA PENINSULAR, SL
11/14/08, 1:2008cv01073, AR AIRWAYS
11/13/08, 1:2008cv01068, UAIPARU GUERERE
11/13/08, 1:2008cv01065, FL 410 LLC
11/11/08, 1:2008cv01054, EPAC AVIATION PTY, Ltd.
11/3/08, 3:2008cv01954, BLI AVIATION LLC

bill e. goat said...

ExperiencedAviationProfessional
Nov 15, 2008

"If EAC currently has 800+ people on the payroll*, somebody please tell me where the other 700 work. It sure as heck ain't near Clark Carr Loop. I've been parking there for 20 years, and counting cars just ain't that hard. I've been to most of the satellite buildings, and the only ones showing any activity are the service center and headquarters. Vehicle counts since August have remained pretty much unchanged, save for a small decline at HQ over the past month".

EAP,
I was a bit confused (well, worse than usual) over your post, as the timing was the Friday of the "no paycheck weekend"- are you suggesting there are only 100 cars (or so) at Eclipse since paychecks have (thankfully) resumed?

Along those lines- has anybody been out to the Wedge mineshaft/moneypit #2 (well, I guess he's "shafted" a lot more that- maybe that's 2 "K" customers, 2K employees, 2M taxpayers) at Double Whammy (I mean Double Eagle)? Did this thing get going or what? (Training facility, I believe).

*Baron 95 mentioned 800, but I thought Roel said 1200; either way, it seems like a lot for building 1 plane per quarter- I'm happy for everyone still working though!
------------------------------
Those paychecks- Thanks go out to Mr. Mann for carrying "the team" for a while longer.
------------------------------
What's up with the "retooling"- is this just Eclipse-speak for saying they are going to build the tail section themselves, once they have the jigs built? (or bought/negotiated from Hampsons).
------------------------------
Dave,
"Eclipse owes Albany International $7.4 million, according to SEC filings".

Shane,
"I'm led to believe that the funds injected late last week are in the $5 million range"

Goat,
2 weeks back pay owed = $3~4M

11 suits = 11 x $1.5M x 60% = $10M

Suppliers = (guessing, at $0.5M/ac x 20 ac) = $10M

Refunds = (guessing, a couple dozen- for now: 24 x $1.5M x .6)= $20M

Retrofits (guessing) = $150K x 200 = $30M

Looks like Eclipse needed $50-100M or so, and got $5M

The "greatest show on earth" continues, with mystifying mathematics.

This REALLY is weird...
----------------------------------

I think the blog had come up with a burn rate of $20/mo when not in "conservation mode" (guess that means shoveling the cash into the incinerator by hand, rather than using the conveyor belt).

With EASA in hand (or the mail), the $200-300M better come in quickly.

But if/when the money train arrives, there's another "delimma"- the prioner's delimma: will the owners-in-waiting all patiently sit on their hands waiting for new suppliers to be lined up, profitability to be established, peace in the middle east, etc; or sue as individuals for their refunds?
Depositor's Delimma

bill e. goat said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
bill e. goat said...

B95,
Thanks for the link to the 787 fastener issue, but I didn't see the mention of EAC in that particular article.

Boeing IAM members just came off strike, I think one of the items was "temps", so I'm not so sure EAC is particiapting in this with any more than lip service or helpful offers of assistance.

(There have been "industry assist" programs in the past between the major airframers though).

I did read that the fastener effort is expected to take an average of 1 week per airplane- with the flight test program delayed (sorry, that is a redundant statement), I reckon there is not a particular rush to get this done on all the platforms at once.

Vought makes part of the fuselage in Greenville SC, and Spirit Aerostructures makes part of it in Wichita KS, so I'm not sure if all the rework is being done in WA state, or else where.

Since the 787 fastener issue is a critical-path issue for Boeing, I see them putting together a "SWAT team” of top-notch mechanics and inspectors. Not that the Eclipse staff isn't capable, just that this is a high priority task, and Eclipsers don't necessarily have any experience with fastener insertion in composites.
And as far as EAC management acting as consultants to Boeing- the best strategy there would be for Boeing to pay for French lessons and airplane tickets to Toulouse. Maybe even on Eclipsi. (!? Perhaps the REAL reason behind the EASA cert ?!?).
---------------------------------

Speaking of the 787,
787 - Another View

Thanks Stan- too bad the 787 hasn't stirred up as much enthusiasm as EAC- if they had just had a more bombastic spokesmodel/CEO such as Wedge.

fred said...

returned&fried

yes , may be i am a tool ...

but over you , i have 2 better points :

1° i didn't spend my kid's university money into something which will remain a TOY !
i forgot : Sorry Kenny we all know you haven't got kids ...

2° when i shave , the guy i see in the mirror doesn't make me puke ...
how about the ones who touted the qualities of Fpj to have other victims (sorry , customers ) to buy it ?

remember :

ONE rabbit in the pot is ALWAYS better than 2 running in the bush !

up to now , the EAC venture is a failure ...
in term of mass production !
as a Privately Owned (which is what EASA permit ) may be a good plane , but still lots of details to be corrected , to offset the fact that EA500 has been designed for a market that DOESN'T EXIST !
(Jet-Air-Taxi)
the major flake into this : to fix it to be of proper use (private , owned privately ) would cost so much that most potential buyers would run into the arms of competitors ...!

a partial EASA is not going to change anything ...

2300 orders from European Continent ?

this start to be fu***g hilarious ... !

how many private jet are sold within a year in the whole of Europe ?

WHY do you think that the Biggest private Builder (not assembler ) is stating that his biggest chunk of business is in USA ? (over 70% , Dassault sources )

IF such possibility would have had existed at any time , anywhere else than in the sick mind of someone not knowing how to get out of the mess he put himself into

Why such a firm as Dassault has NOT thought of it before ?

they have about the best of the best in Europe in term of engineers , designers , staff ...

Endless supply of money (working for State and exactly like Boeing or Airbus , getting as much blank checks as they want, pretext may vary = result remain the same ...!)

Already very well established as a producer ...

already in control of most production chain (they mostly do their own components , from design to final assembly ) directly or indirectly ...
which is a galaxy away from Eac (ONLY an assembler)which control about nothing : remember the excuse about Non-conforming deliveries and how it prevented Eac to deliver ...

WHY they didn't think of such a brilliant plan BEFORE the Wedge and his Merry-Band ?

SIMPLE ANSWER : no use for it !

get it into the sponge supposed to be your brain :

Europe is MUCH SMALLER !
Public Transports very developed !
Flying NOT in many a way of life !
Tax are really on Heavy side !

IF Dayjet couldn't be successful in the country where flying is as normal as taking the train in Europe ...

WHY do you think it would be any MORE a success in a land plagued by Ecologists , crazy tax laws , lack of infrastructures , regulations which are so complicated that NO ONE can say at any time knowing them all ...

me a tool ? don't be blinded by your own foolishness to have boarded this sinking boat ...!

ExperiencedAviationProfessional said...

For Bill e. Goat...

My travels take me to/by the Headquarters, Main Assembly, Painting, Service Center, Friction Stir Welding, Machine Shop, and Flt Sim buildings on a regular basis.

For most of the past two months, the EAC-related vehicle count has been approximately 100, and I’ll be generous and say there is a 15% margin of error. I have not seen any carpool activity, and judging from the expensive nature of their vehicles, I really doubt there is any occurring.

It is possible I’ve missed a few small buildings, because during their heyday, EAC had about a dozen buildings, but I believe most of these were very small specialty shops.

Immediately after the August mass firings, vehicle count was approximately 200, with assembly and painting activity continuing for a few weeks. There has been a steady decline since then.

The Service Center has been running non-stop for much of the past two months. When production stopped, the Main Assembly and Painting Facility parking lot usually had 5-6 cars total, and I assumed they were security/janitorial folks.

EAC has a training facility at Double Eagle II. From the outside, it looks very similar to the Flight Sim buildings I used in the USAF (two story, few tiny windows). I drive past it at least once a week, during weekdays, and have yet to see any cars parked there.

It is possible EAC has more than 100 employees remaining, but like I said earlier, somebody please tell me where they work? Is someone cooking the payroll roster? I’m just curious....

And I’m happy that parking is no longer a problem. Many EAC employees showed no respect for parking spaces clearly marked for the use of customers of other businesses. Polite letters to EAC got no improvement, despite EAC having its own parking enforcement person leaving nasty written notes on their windshields. I’ll bet that person received a mountain of verbal abuse. EAC employee arrogance was unbelievable.

And I’m glad the three EAC stooges that took their daily exercise walk, out in the middle of Spirit Drive, AGAINST TRAFFIC, and blocking 75% of the lane, are gone. Talk about arrogance. I had to panic stop, wait for them to slowly exit the road, then resume driving, on several occasions. They obviously felt they were so important, that that 40mph roadway was for their own personal use, and vehicles should move out of THEIR way. Yes, I was tempted.

I’ll do another vehicle count this week.


Here is another interesting tidbit. When EAC would hit a major pothole in developing their jet, and wanted to keep it secret from potential buyers/media, not only would they turn the screws on their employees via NDAs and god-knows-what-other-threats, they enlisted the aid of KABQ tenant businesses as well. Since EAC and non-EAC aviation folks talked openly with each other, EAC successfully had the general manager of at least one non-EAC business issue a dire threat to employees to “not say ANYTHING about Eclipse, to ANYONE, for ANY REASON.” And it was very effective. Of course it also suggested EAC was pulling a huge con job.


I’m curious to know the precise wording of the NDAs. Threats against your first-born child?, loss of limbs? A one-way trip out into the desert? It is so effective, that the former EAC employees I know will only state they once worked for Eclipse, and nothing more. They will not give out any details whatsoever, even when repeatedly badgered. I find this amazing. Not even the New York mafia was this effective at silencing still-living people.


I can’t wait to read the book on EAC, a best-seller for sure. Still got a couple of cats in the bag, just waiting for the right time to let them out.

fred said...

epx :

#Not even the New York mafia was this effective at silencing still-living people #

i think it would a delightful sight to see Mr Gad sitting in room full of smoke ...

at a long table , with a few younger polishing their guns ...

this Mr Gad , telling you "kid , i am going to make you an offer you cannot refuse ...!"

that would be hilarious , only that could save the whole thing ...

if it wasn't a con game !

Ps: Monsieur Gadfly , do not take any embarrassment of me joining you with the Merry Band ...
you deserve respect ...
if not for your old age ...
for the wisdom you provide us !

ExperiencedAviationProfessional said...

I think I should clarify a point in my previous post (teach me to post at 3am).

My post regarding EACs energetic efforts to stifle talk about their failures, were during the early years of development. Their current NDAs, and other efforts today, seem much more effective at silencing former employees.

fred said...

avid :

i couldn't resist the (nasty) pleasure of commenting your post ...

#ETIRC's office "..headquartered in Luxembourg" is nothing more than a contracted mail drop. #

it is even worse than what you probably imagine ...
a wall of Mail-boxes , not even checked everyday , more like twice a week ...

but that's OK , Etirc in Moscow is even worse ...
an office space rented among hundreds of others ...
Russians themselves have a funny way of calling such , roughly translated it means " today here , gone tomorrow"
for a business that has direct link to Kremlin and state banks ?
and was supposed to invest a few Billions $ in Russia ?

should shameful for R.F. not to have provided them with an office in the Red Fortress ...


#The "partners" in Europe are nothing more than a few guys in business unrelated to aviation i.e. the jewelry business. #


yes ,but apart the Turkish ???

is it possible to be partner with yourself ??
isn't it leading to schizophrenia to be one here , an other there and finally a third (fourth, fifth , etc...) home ?

#The "Russian factory" doesn't exist. #

don't worry ...
it will "probably" never exist ...
those bloody Russkyis have seen so many "one night investors" (mainly from the US , btw)
taht now they have their own way of dealing :
they welcome you but as soon as you leave , they do as if you never came ...

not to point out that the factory (if it ever exist) will not produce anything (think :profits) until 2009 ...
till then the Merry Band would have the expenses , but not the profits related ... which is nothing different of the last 10+ years , so nothing really change under the sun , here or there !

julius said...

Fred,

bonjour!


Sorry I mixed up ESA with EUROCONTROL!

Better than my memory - the original source:

The page with some reports

Eurocontrol reports page!

The Business aviation report:
Business Aviation in Europe in 2007


Perhaps the partial - some people might say "preemie" or "FPJ" - EASA TC will result in some type of quality for the FPJ.
(I know for private user it is an EASA TC - not less!)

Ken did not say that the FPJ with s/n >264 (FAA AVIO NFG 1.5) will be equal to the EASA version which has a mtow of 6000 lbs, nor if the built FPJ will be upgraded accordingly.

His master ... sorry, sorry ... RP will decide when to inform a Dutch news paper about this fact and other FPJ or EAC related news.

Julius

julius said...

Fred,

sorry the last link was wrong -

the correct one:




Business Aviation in Europe in 2007




Julius

Dave said...

All those wanting to get paid back from Ecilpse must be thrilled that Eclipse spends over $1M per year on
Roel's Dutch basketball team. If I understand the article right, Roel always sees that those payments from Eclipse are always made. Is there even any mention of the Eclipse basketball team on EclipseAviation.com, given how Eclipse is supposedly the "strategic sponsor"? Dutch basketball - yes, here's lots of money; Vendors and depositors - no money for you.

airsafetyman said...

"The whole production process is currently being examined by an independent agency scrutiny. Based on their findings, we adjust the process."

Years ago at Eastern Air Lines we had "Booze, Allen, whatever" come in and design a new overhaul process. When an upstart (cough, cough) pointed out that the new system was less flexible and more complicated that the existing system the upstart was laughed at. Later a consultant came down to the hangar floor to ask questions. I told him it wouldn't work. He assured me it would. I told him: "Great, YOU hand out the assignments." Which he did. Ten minutes later the crew chiefs were back as they couldn't get into the areas, the preliminary work hadn't been done, someone else was there, they didn't have the skill set available that day, the part was not back for the shop, and so on. The Booze guy collected up the worksheets and tried again. Same result. After the third time, as the crew chiefs were coming back again, he fled to a meeting and was not seen again. Eastern finally scrapped the system and went back to the old way, which was designed, over time, by people who actually knew what they were doing.

fred said...

vielen danke , mein freund !

looking fast at numbers of the report you provided , i see :

length of trip are short , very short compared to US ones ...

2300 orders would be something "extraordinary" as usually (with a 25% renewing ratio) the "usual" delivery is about 280 (2800 over a 10 years period referenced in the report)

so taking into consideration that EAC/Etirc could take 100% of the whole market , it is a little over 8 (eight) years production ...

as shown in table :

High Growth 1,400 20% 2,800 25%
Cent Forecast 1,200 18% 2,160 28%
Low Growth 700 16% 1,120 33%

the first row-numbers being the TOTAL WORLD PRODUCTION ...

the second row :the amount "absorbed" by European market ...

third: the numbers over a period of ten years ...

fourth :the renewing rate

it become quite evident that since the report has been made (May 2008) the economic situation has deteriorated "largely" enough to take the LOW PREDICTION as being something already kind of optimistic ...

so in the current situation : 2300 orders would mean nothing less than for EAC/Etirc to become the furnisher of the TOTALITY of MARKET for OVER 20 years ...

taking into consideration that EA500 would have a FULL EASA (Commercial and Air-Taxi allowed)
which at the time being is far from being the case ...

anybody to believe so ? ...;-))

we definitely need all the Kenny of the world , in E.U. !

or an extra-stock of pink goggles ... ;-))

fred said...

Dave :

since when Roel care about staff, furnishers and vendors ? ;-)

ok , i stop being bad for a second ...

i could be quite interesting for the ones concerned to learn that under the European Set of Laws , this kind of practice is not lawful ...

as if or when a firm is having financial hardship , they are supposed to act in a "good fatherly manner" ...

which suppose then that the money spent on Roel's pet-team should be re-directed to where it belongs or where it can eventually make a difference (1M$ = at least 6 depositors being repaid ...)

in the French Law (which is the frame of the European thru "Code Napoléon" [he has left a few good things after him])

it is called "requete en suspicion légitime"

i don't know how to translate , but basically it is the situation when one can say it is quite obvious that the other part is doing (or not doing) something that is prejudicial to your interests with a full knowledge of situation ...

which sounds very much being the case ....

the good bit in it : Etirc is European , so is Roel and amsterdam ....

Dave said...

since when Roel care about staff, furnishers and vendors ? ;-)

Apparently he cares more about the staff and vendors of the Haarlem Globetrotters than he does about the staff and vendors of Eclipse. Between Eclipse and MyGuide the total yearly is 3 million Euros with Eclipse being the primary, so at least 1.5 million Euros or just under $2 million dollars from Eclipse at a minimum. I'm surprised that Al Mann would tolerate having to dig into his own pockets to make Eclipse's payroll just so that Roel can pretend to be Mark Cuban.

fred said...

ok , i just called a friend who is a real lawyer ... (unlike me ...;-) )

well ...

he more or confirmed , but said that it would be difficult to enforce ...

more to dig into the fact that the sum was paid BEFORE EAC/Etirc had anything to sell (lack of EASA) so for an advertising contract that is "shaky" ...

in code N = "abus de biens sociaux" !

Shane Price said...

ATman,

Current status on deposits is VERY hard to work out. S/n 259 flew last week, presumed to be a test flight. That squares with what I'm told from EAC. The 'famous' s/n 266 that appeared at NBAA with all the AvioNG 1.5/FIKI stuff on it, is still spoken of as the first of the 'final config' to be delivered.

However...

No one is quite sure when this is actually going to happen. Clearly the bird that appeared at NBAA was built well out of sequence (pretty standard for EAC) and might have been used as one of the 'three aircraft' I was told were used as the test fleet for this certification. It has NOT yet been delivered to an end user, and may not be for some considerable time.

If you take it that they are managing between one and two deliveries per week, then they should get to s/n 266 sometime before Christmas, and clearly must do it early in the new year.

So, lets' say that they deliver 266 aircraft, in total, by the end of 2008. They 'delivered' 99 aircraft in 2007 (only one in 2006 and that on the 31st of December) which means that the claim of about 800 orders (after you strip out DayJet and other ETRIC related air taxi ones) and the actual shipped product you are left with 550 odd deposits.

After much messing around, I had concluded their ACTUAL number of CUSTOMERS was about 400. Many people had taken multiple positions, including Ken.

How many DEPOSITS remain?
Excellent question. Given the number of legal actions, plus the statements of how much was due to return to depositors, and a factor for the downturn in business caused by recent 'excitement' I'd be pretty sure it was under 200. At two per week that's two years production. Any higher rate actually makes no sense at all. Think about it. If they jump to 20 a months again they are finished in under a year.

The current recession is going to last at least a year, so they will burn the remains of the order book and have to shut down again.

There are no 'volume orders'
I know my headline post makes fun of The Wedge, and the demise of DayJet shoots the whole air taxi concept full of holes, for making the case for a VLJ 'industry'. Yes, there is a market for a 6 place twin turbine jet with a range of 1,200nm and costing $2.5 to $3 million.

But there are not now, and are very unlikely to be ever, a need for thousands per annum. The basic premise this business is based on is flawed.

Bill E. Goat,

(It is at the end of a long post, and I'd like to cut it out, rather than delete the entire post- does anyone know of a way to do this?)

I'm cool with links that are a bit dodgy, for any reason. It's not considered 'part' of the blog and is really only a reference.
Sadly, I'm not aware of any way to delete part of a comment. My 'delete' button is the same as yours. The only 'extra' I have is my ability to delete other people as well.

I should also state that I've made certain arrangements in the event I'm not available. The 'power to delete' is a strange one. I spend more time thinking about using it than almost anything else around here....

Shane

bill e. goat said...

Shane,
"I should also state that I've made certain arrangements "in the event I'm not available".

"The 'power to delete' is a strange one.

"I spend more time thinking about...it than almost anything else".

!!
I worry about THE WEDGE having time on his hands too!!

(Better for society that his "federal assignment" start sooner rather than later!)

fred said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
fred said...

Monsieur Shane

first :

about the time you spend having to think about who is to be deleted or not ...

WE should ALL be Grateful to you ...

second :

even if the Mass-orders would exist , the European market would NOT be able to swallow such a "big baby" ....!

Shane Price said...

Bill E. Goat,

I'm not planning on 'not being available' but I do travel a fair bit. You will also have noticed a time difference....

So, if someone steps out of line and the offending comment suddenly vanishes, it might not be me doing it.

You might remember that I spend a good portion of each December in the Alps. When I'm skiing I tend to concentrate on not killing myself while I'm on the slopes, and celebrating my survival when I get down. This can mean I don't spend as much time on the blog as I (or you) would like.

Hence the 'alternative arrangements' for appropriate action, should any be required.

My remarks about deleting comments reflect my reluctance to do it. This is right and proper, in any free society.

If you want control, sign up at E5C....

Ok, forget that last remark. I would never want someone like you bored to death!

Shane

fred said...

did i mention it ?

you deserve our gratitude !

Shane Price said...

Fred,

Thanks for your kind remarks.

I agree with your assessment of the market here. I just can't get my head around the need for another factory when the one they already have is 'eating' the order book.

The really funny thing? A little bird tells me that the DayJet FPJ's remain unsold.

So, they can't sell new units, they can't shift used ones....

.... and the Dow Jones has tanked.

Yet, Roel still claims over a thousand orders.

I do not understand why they continue to promote these numbers. Nobody believes them, not even the staff at EAC.

Shane

FreedomsJamtarts said...

How many DEPOSITS remain?

It's 42.

I could tell you how I came up with that number, but unfortunately, "a dolphin told me", is more beleivable than the method Ecorpse uses to substantiate an orderbook of 1100 (down from 2700), so 42 it is.

That does include Kens second albatros though.

fred said...

Monsieur Shane

please do not mention the 300 Billions given away to Citigroup...
;-))

someone should tell them "stop the madness !"

a bit in the same fashion than EAC , someone should tell them :

stop BS , put all your cards on table , speak-up the truth ...

or get lost !

fred said...

freedom :

stop ...please ...

or i will have to rush to the toilets ...! ;-))

FreedomsJamtarts said...

So is ISS going to be supplying any screens, or programming any bug fixes/ updates to GAvioDOA come the new year?

That quarterly report sure looked like the end of a beautiful romance.

FreedomsJamtarts said...

Sorry Fred,

whole thing make me want to hurl also!

If any potential investers are on the blog, give your $200-300 million to me. I also have no idea what I would do with it, but I can bet you that your ROI would be better than Ecorpse.

I might buy some GM stock (maybe all of it).

fred said...

what romance are you talking about ?

sounded to me like a "marriage for profits"

what does the bride do when she discover that the groom isn't a prince ???

divorce , good old fashion ...!;-)

fred said...

freedom :

stop kidding !

with 300M$ ???

GM + Major US banks ... ;-))

bill e. goat said...

Hi Shane,
I hope my inference about the Wedge trying to delete- you!- was not too convoluted! :)

The power, and responsibility, to moderate the web for civility and content is a heavy burden I am certain, and even more so when compounded by scrutinizing the voluminous incoming mail.

But the result of your, and Stan's, excellent efforts result in what we have: a stunningly competent, informative, and enjoyable example of fine journalism.

I second Fred's thanks for being an outstanding blog host (same for Stan!)- such great results do not come without long and dedicated effort- it takes a unique blend of wisdom, intelligence, and judgement to create what you present us with- sincerest thanks from all of us!

I hope you have a great time in the Alps! Don't worry about the blog too much- (we have the REAL Frank back to provide "fair and balanced" feedback for the FoV/W club! Oh, the horror of it all !!! :)

(and please come back refreshed- I suspect 2009Q1 is going to be...INTERESTING !!
.)

bill e. goat said...

FJT,
"How many DEPOSITS remain? It's 42."

...does that include the tuna fish sandwich?

Shane Price said...

'42'

As it happens, I believe I'm the only one on the blog who ever met Douglas Adams.

I also have the BBC radio serial, the follow up BBC TV show, the books and finally the film, all in their various formats.

And to show that I am a 'true believer' I chose 'the ultimate answer' as my prediction for FPJ production in 2007.

And remind me to share that small bit of The Wedges address to the VLJ conference. Several people have asked for it to be posted, and I've noticed one key bit I missed....

Shane

Zed said...

Regarding Henry ...

OK, regarding vendors, but the movie plot where hard-driving talented Henry (played by aviator Harrison Ford) is shot in the head, and then walks around in a perpetual stupor is simply too good on an analogy to pass up.

The several vendors we have spoken with range from “we are still on board” to “we are done, don’t even ask”.

The prevailing theme even for the latter group is (1) if Eclipse pays us 100% of back due amount, plus (2) cost-of-money offset for floating their debt, and (3) revised contract terms that should include a paid-up-front retainer and removal of all non-compete language, then (4) they will consider playing in the future.

Speculating (please reread that word if in doubt) about vendors “like IS&S” with both considerable investment in product pipeline and Eclipse-unique IP, if the terms are extremely beneficial and the risks are substantially on Eclipse (and hence not vendors as it is now), then they would consider future participation.

In any case, the power that Eclipse wielded in negotiations is gone. If they enter with hat in hand and an open wallet then folks will talk. If they once again declare terms and conditions they will have a lot of short meetings. Vendors are now fully committed that the BATN is truly just walking away.

baron95 said...

bill e. goat said...
B95,
Thanks for the link to the 787 fastener issue, but I didn't see the mention of EAC in that particular article.

Boeing IAM members just came off strike, ...


Hi BEG, I am no Black Tulip, and typically a fact-nerd, but occasionally I can turn to parody and comedy.

Your union brotherhood is safe for now. No EAC non-union types will be pulling fasteners out of any 787s, AFAIK. It was a tongue in cheek comment, directed at those who think ONLY EAC makes mistakes.

As for the 787, I am terribly disapointed in how Boeing completely lost control of that program.

It is a new way for Boeing to build planes (much less vertically integrated than anything before), and I had high hopes for it. It is incredible that a year and a half after the marketing-forced rollout the thing still hasn't flown.

It is probably the longest time from roll-out to first flight of ANY program I know of.

It is just too bad. I hope, but I am not optmistic, that they bring that program under control soon. God forbid if an issue is found in flight testing and a redesign is required. It will be trully awfull.

And I'm sorry if the EAC helping Boeing joke was mistaken for something else.

bill e. goat said...

Hi Baron,
I'm sorry I missed the parody- I plead extenuating circumstances: my parody detector is inop- it EXPLOED when I read Shane's post of the Wedge's ramblings.

Consider:

Edsel Ford, of all names (!!)

On Amelia Island (we know he's lost his way, but...)

talking with Wedge about "volume" (!!)

Wedge saying he might be FAA administrator (!!)

Wedge saying he was interested in involvement with a "self regulated" nuclear power industry (!!)

Wedge saying "the airplane doesn't matter" (!!)

Wedge (of all people) saying "Air taxi can thrive and succeed without VLJ" (!!)

Wedge blaming PowerPoint for forcing him to stop shaving? (!?!)
-------------------------------
(Shane, along the lines of "be careful what you ask for- you might get it, with timidity and trepidation, I did try to find the entirety of his remarks- AvWeek VLJ Forum 2008, I believe?

(Thanks- ah, I think; I'm sort of worried about what I might find out! :)
------------------------------
btw, Zed:
"the movie plot where hard-driving talented Henry is shot in the head, and then walks around in a perpetual stupor"

three differences:

1) Wedges head is too hard for this too happen (maybe hit by lightning though)

2) the "talented" part

3) I think Henry walked around in a GOOD NATURED stupor...
--------------------------------

B95,
I had sort of wondered if there really were still "1200" employees at EAC, (thank you Experienced Aviation Prof for the excellent summary!), and wondered what the heck that many people were doing these past few weeks (and months)- an industry loan sure would be a nice way to help everyone out.

I agree about Boeing, man, they've "lost the bubble" big time. Just think if they were messed up this bad back on the fly-by-wire 777 development, which would seem to be infinitely more complicated than messing around with 25 year old composite technology- after all, Boeing's military side uses composites a lot.

The 777 came out fine, on time- I think even PBS did a documentary of the development.

Big differences now? Beats me. Lots of outsourcing (same as EAC). And I think you are right on about the 787 roll out- a marketing stunt (same as EAC).

Odd, the biggest and smallest in the US are having similar problems...

Zed said...

Bill E.

I guess that my plot development skills are weak.

I intended to draw an analogy between Vendors and Henry, not El Wedge.

Vendors are kind of like the living dead right now. Need and want the money, but not sure if another dance with the devil is in the cards.

EclipsePilotOMSIV said...

Surprised none of you have commented on the AD that got issued today...

bill e. goat said...

Zed,
Sorry- it was my mistake.

But the Wedge apparently suffers from weak development skills as well.

.)

TBMs_R_Us said...

New Eclipse AD:

Prior to further flight, unless already done, incorporate the following language into Section 2, Limitations, of your airplane flight manual (AFM): "Per AD 2008-24-07, LIMIT THE MAXIMUM OPERATING ALTITUDE TO 37,000 FEET (11277M) PRESSURE ALTITUDE.''

Dave said...

This is the AD which OMSIV is referring to. It limits the altitude of the Eclipse 500 due to the carbon build-up.

Shane Price said...

That 'missing' bit
“When we made the decision that the Williams engine wouldn't succeed. We killed the Williams engine after it failed 21 times in 90 days. We're talking fires, melted combustors, turbine sections. The list goes on and on. The praise I want to heap on P&W is (****indistinct recording****). To my knowledge, there has never been a single engine failure with the PW600 series. That's a miracle in my book. One of the best partners you could ever have. When [things got] screwed up, the finger didn’t get pointed. [The question was] how are we going to fix this? Together? Having partners is a valid idea.”

Now, think about that. The Wedge admitted he killed the EJ22 after 3 months. The first flight took place on May 30, 2002, which the EJ22 turbofan engine successfully completed. It 'performed flawlessly' when EAC flew it for approximately 50 minutes mounted onto a flying test bed, a modified Saberliner Model 60.

The first flight on an FPJ took place on Aug. 26, 2002 (at 9:18 a.m) from ABQ. Again, this was an 'outstanding achievement'.

Hang on, The Wedge clearly says it took '90 days' to decide to kill the engine. I presume they had it bench testing for at least a month (my spies say 3 months) before they strapped to the Saberliner

And yet off they went with the FPJ at the end of August 2002 and (as Gadfly would say) fluttered around for a while.

All this to convert the deposits into cash. Shameful, and now uncovered by his own words.

This whole sequence was a fraud, pure and simple.

Shane

Black Tulip said...

"Surprised none of you have commented on the AD that got issued today..."

Covered at some length in my report from NBAA, October 6th.

FreedomsJamtarts said...

Where are all the Mustang AD's. The FAA doesn't even list the 510 on the AD server.

Black Tulip said...

Among the possible explanations - Cessna has a special dispensation from the Federal Aviation Administration such that Airworthiness Directives remain secret... or none have been issued.

airtaximan said...

"This whole sequence was a fraud, pure and simple."

Shane, I wouldn't bank on the 90 days remark - he's covering his ass, saying they shit canned the J22 after first flight... 90 days after.

This is a lie.

His description of the engine, as a POS is something they in fact knew all along - -for a long time before the deposit-stunt-first-flight.

I kinda wish the DOJ would investigate THIS event, and provide litigation, criminal action and a fraud cae against the oficers and diretors of EAC - I believe, like you say, it was fraud.

This would be jail time, for interstate commerce, racketeering, etc... if the DOJ could prove there was fraud, and they knew the engine was not going to make it in the plane.

So, Vern admits they defrauded their clients out of the deposits, and that they knew the engine was crapola.

Pieper admits it was a failed business model.

Nice.

Where to go from here?

I know, raise more money!!!

Hould be fun.

fred said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
fred said...

freedom & BT :

how can you dare saying such lies about the ABQ-Marvel ...?

(i think i have found the Kenny-Mode switch in my pants ... ;-)) )

when one read the "missing bit" , it is real hard after , not believing
in the "planned from day one" !

ok , may be not Day one , but Day 90 for sure ...

julius said...

Shane,

Principiis obsta!

he didn't learn while sitting at the table with the big bosses.


This whole sequence was a fraud, pure and simple.


It's just cognitive dissonance right now - perhaps his only chance...with all his bussiness failures....

Julius

Zed said...

Shane –

He stated “We killed the Williams engine after it failed 21 times in 90 days.” Not that they killed the engine choice after 90+/- days.

What we can only speculate about (for now) is where the first flight occurred during that period.

Our sources (friends who witnessed some of the fires, troubleshot the Avio fuel system for possible contributors, etc.) offer that the first flight went off during a particularly calm window in that 90 days of chaos.

From our vantage, the likelihood of an engine swap was known at first flight … but that William’s reported claims that the engine would run fine once exercised in the aircraft had to be tested ... but just didn’t pan out.

That depositor money flowed with that flight was gravy ... but enough of an influencer that the flight went off with more risk than desired.

When Williams had no immediate nor likely fix to the issues, and the first flight photos and press conferences were in all the media, the engine was canned.

Then new engines, tip tanks, weight growth, etc. came along in typical succession.

At this same time BAE was imploding on the ADAHRS development, the Avio radar integration was taking forever. Cash was flowing out of the company at an astounding rate.

Zed

Dave said...

Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't Eclipse completely shoot themselves in the foot with NG 1.5/EASA certification? I say this because Eclipse spent money on getting the certications rather than on paying the vendor who is critical to those certifications. IS&S has basically walked away from Eclipse due Eclipse's non-payment of bills. EASA is very specific that different equipment can't be used and I believe the FAA is the same way, so now wouldn't Eclipse have to go through this all over again with the FAA and EASA certifications if they actually wanted to use them? It would seem EASA/1.5 certification would only apply to the few aircraft already built and what parts remain in stock at Eclipse. Eclipse and IS&S could get back together, but Eclipse would have to pay and even then IS&S might just wash their hands of Eclipse. If someone was going to fund Eclipse based on EASA certification, wouldn't they have to reconsider that given the EASA-compliant parts supplier parted ways with Eclipse? It seems at this point the EASA/1.5 certifications are worth less than zero because Eclipse would have to pay to redo them with a new vendor.

julius said...

dave,

if EAC doesn't pay the G400, the boots,...or any stuff for which there is only one supplier, the a/c will become useless.
Then EAC is shooting...

Yes, it is a little be "funny", to continue the certs (FAA,EASA) and
on the other side to annoy the key suppliers.

I wouldn't explain this with "cash conservation mode". It will become difficult for the accounts receivable managers to explain, why they are not forcing EAC to pay...

Maybe the certs are just for distraction...RP has lot of experiences...

Julius

gadfly said...

Fade in . . .
http://www.abqjournal.com/grant/241110547040grant11-24-08.htm
(“Mayor's Tone Out of Kilter” by Gene Grant, For the Journal

“It is bordering on bizarre, however, to note the expansion of the General Mills plant and the 60 jobs due without even whispering word one about the possible collapse of Eclipse Aviation. To my mind, this strategic choice was not only regrettable, but an opportunity missed.
What's regrettable is that one could infer that, by ignoring the gray elephant stomping through this city, there is an unwillingness to look closely at hard problems and grind on solutions. And by extension, the mayor does not possess the ability to see problems for what they are: opportunities. I question the strategy of ignoring their problems, which are ours in tandem. Why leave yourself open for blowback? I can see absolutely no upside for ignoring the Eclipse situation.
Why not instead open the address with Eclipse? Get right to it. Look the city dead in the eye with an unflinching resolve, laying out the commitments the city will take to ensure these jobs. By extension, set the stakes for those with our head in the sand by grabbing us by the neck and pulling us upright.”

Fade out . . .

gadfly . . . sitting up on the ceiling, ever watching!

Dave said...

if EAC doesn't pay the G400, the boots,...or any stuff for which there is only one supplier, the a/c will become useless.
Then EAC is shooting...

Yes, it is a little be "funny", to continue the certs (FAA,EASA) and
on the other side to annoy the key suppliers.


I wanted to be sure I understood it correctly that on one hand Eclipse by their own admission devoted all their resources to EASA, while on the other hand didn't pay key suppliers of EASA being viable, which could mean a whole new re-certification of NG 1.5 and EASA with different suppliers going forward or at least an unknown which current suppliers will be used going forward and what their terms will be. It has got to be extremely embarassing just announcing you have EASA and then your key supplier required for EASA certification tells the world they've written you off.

baron95 said...

What is the big deal that Eclipse flew an engine (that they had great misgivings about and were thinking of replacing), in order to get the press photo-op and lock in the deposits?

Smart move on their part if you ask me. Would Eclipse be better off as a company if they hadn't taken that flight until 2 and 1/2 years later? I think not.

So mgmt did what is best for the owners/investors of the company, as is their duty.

So what is the big deal?

It is a much bigger deal that Boeing rolled out a plane put together with incorrect fasteners and duck tape to meet an 07-08-07 marketing stunt deadline, and then, claimed with a straight face that the plane would fly in the summer.

Why can't you guys get over the fact that this is how the game is played. In a start up business, ALL that matters is proving a milestone to get more money. If you need to use duck-tape, an engine that only lives for a few hours or stubbed-out SW, so be it. Better that than die for lack of money like Adam.

This is not high-school philosophy class, you know. There are no points for "effort" or "moral rectitude", it is all about hitting the milestone.

That is why most of you fail to understand the importance of Avio NG 1.5 and EASA. These are two more milestones, to do what, children? Yes, Johnny, raise MORE MONEY.

Now, there is no guarantee they will raise money with EASA and Avio NG 1.5, but, from what I read these were funding pre-conditions. Not sufficient maybe, but certainly necessary.

Hit the milestone, raise the money, live to fight another day. Run out of money, hit another milestone, raise more money, get going. That is what it is all about.

Read the Blog archives, about how Adam was a great guy a visionary, blah, blah, blah. Dead.

Eclipse, with all its faults, and there are many, is still hanging on.

gadfly said...

baron

The "big deal" is simply this: When they flew the engine that they found was not adequate, yet claimed to have succeeded, . . . they revealed their "hand". They used that first flight to claim money in escrow . . . before they admitted the failure.

At that instant, they fully confirmed the "lie", that many of us had already suspected. And, whether you agree or not . . . a liar is a liar is a liar . . . never to be trusted, ever again.

gadfly

(Nothing to date has changed that early exposure of the basic philosophy of Eclipse Aviation Corporation . . . Nothing!)

Shane Price said...

Zed, Baron et al.

The EJ 22 FLEW in May 2002, on a test mule.

I presume they didn't just uncrate the engine and blot in on there overnight. In fact, one source tells me they spent about three months from the time they got the first one from Williams.

May to August is, being simplistic, 90 days. Lets add half of my single sourced 90 days to make a total of 135 days, from first receipt to first FPJ flight.

Then, having locked in those deposits, his sits on his hands until November before he can's the EJ 22.

Add another 45 days, making a total 180.

Why did he take so LONG to can the engine, if it had '21 fires in 90 days'?

No, he knew, before he flew it, that the engine would take too long to get right, and his airframe would never hit the weight targets that 700lbs of thrust could move.

So, as Baron says, he did the 'right' thing for his shareholders.

I could wear that bit, except in the same address he boast about blowing a BILLION dollars of investment, a quarter of which he says was because he had to 'start over' the odd time.

Be logical. If your in a hole, stop digging. The Wedge knew he was in a hole, so he waited 180 days, before he started digging again.

Bit like Roel. He's run out of money, found a few million to make a payroll or three and hopes that 'something' will turn up.

To do what?

Build what remains of his order book in a few months?

Increase the price of the FPJ, again, thereby triggering more refund events and make the market even smaller?

Kick start the ConJet?

Build yet ANOTHER factory to build even more jets that no enough people want?

What part of fraud did you fail to understand?

Every cent (euro or dollar) that goes into this company, as it's presently structured, is going to be lost.

Roel knows this, we know this, the staff, suppliers and customers know this.

Taking money under false pretenses. The classical definition of fraud.

Shane

airtaximan said...

Baron,

I'll give you the benefit or the doubt, here.

There was this tall tale about a "conforming prototype" and this was the trigger for the depsits.

If they could have flown "anything" if your point is acceptable.

At the very least, when you take deposit money based on a preformance milestone, you need to perform... they did not.

Capiche?

Worse still, they just scammed everyone, because they knew the engine was being thrown in the garbage...

airtaximan said...

Zed,

how do I nkow they knew before first flight the engine wa scrap?

Becasue you don't just stap some bottle rockets on the airframe and go...

the development program for the engines and airfram were in tandum, and there was a lot of communication - heck, Wiring Harness ended up at EAC.

You need all sorts of data and integration before flying.

So, yes, the POS engine was destined for the garbage long before first flight.

Shane is right when he says "fraud"... IMO

airtaximan said...

Baron,

I suppose a lot of folks make the decision to "lie or run out of money"...

Doesn't make it right, not even for shareholders.

Think of all the money that could have been saved.

"Engine is scrap, we're out of business = saved $1B"

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