According to the Governor of Ulyanovsk, Vladimir Putin has interceded on behalf of Eclipse Aviation. The Russian government has increased capitalization of the Vnesheconcom Bank by one hundred billion rubles, almost three billion dollars. Some of this is earmarked for ETIRC.
Asked for comment, a longtime Eclipse supporter said, “I’m just hoping they spend all of it on Eclipse… it would be a wise investment. Heck, for three billion dollars the Russians could annex the whole state of New Mexico. It would offset the bad deal they got on Alaska. I’m going to introduce the Governor of Ulyanovsk to Bill Richardson.”
Asked about the plane being built in Russia he added, “You know the Russians build great farm implements and heavy equipment. Right now the Eclipse 500 could use the robustness of a reliable farm tractor. I’m starting to study the Cyrillic alphabet so I can read the instrument panel. I can’t wait to take Putin for a ride in my jet.”
So we turn to another chapter in the Eclipse saga. Three billion down and three billion to go.
The company as we knew it will recede in the rearview mirror and we have unfinished business. Having had minor supporting roles in the investigations of PanAm 103 and TWA 800, I know survivors of aviation disasters need ‘closure’. Perhaps the blog can assist with this.
I propose an Eclipse Requiem Mass be held at Our Lady of Guadalupe Catholic Church in Albuquerque, New Mexico. We need a mournful but uplifting piece of music, composed for the occasion. I suggest something along the lines of Adagio for Strings by Samuel Barber, or perhaps Requiem by Giuseppe Verdi. With the broad array of talents represented here, there must be a composer in the house.
Several have written here on integrity and ethics but none more eloquently than Gadfly. He is a professed man of faith and is best suited among us to deliver the eulogy. We can expect a thought provoking speech on the mortal temptations of the flesh, tempered with hope for better days. He may wish to call on the members of congregation for their recollections of the departed so start mentally rehearsing your piece. The program will be printed in English, Dutch and Russian with tasteful Eclipse colors.
We need to consider the Eclipse Survivors Memorial. This should be located near the rim of the Meteor Crater in Winslow, Arizona. The soaring aluminum sculpture will of course be fashioned of friction stir welded aluminum. On the front will be the engraved names of all 260 initial owners. An epitaph at the bottom will read, “A small smoking crater beside a giant formerly-smoking crater.”
Smaller text on the back of the monument will list 10% depositors, 60% depositors, investors, employees, politicians, parts suppliers, motel operators and taqueria owners. Affixed to the top of the memorial will be a life-size stature of Vern Raburn, reaching plaintively for the sky. He will be flanked by bronze replicas of the Collier Trophy and Cabot Award. The DayJet monument, complete with a working ant farm, will be located discretely nearby. We need a design competition for these memorials, to be judged by a team selected by Shane.
The dedication ceremony will draw cognoscenti from around the world. Sam Williams will be in back wearing dark glasses and a baseball cap. Bill Richardson will break into inconsolable tears. The service will end by spectators throwing rose petals, Eclipse apparel and memorabilia into the Meteor Crater (with the approval of the National Park Service, of course.) The crowd will retire for refreshments to a large Eclipse tent, preserved and replicating the vast presence and former glory at Oshkosh in year 2000.
Finally the Eclipse Fly-in at Sunriver, Oregon in September needs to be carefully orchestrated. It should be modeled after last year’s Legends aviation meet - billed as the last great roundup of P-51 Mustangs and the men who flew them during World War Two. It should culminate in an Eclipse flyby in the missing man formation. There won’t be a dry eye in the crowd.
We need volunteers. Can we count on the blog to assist Eclipse survivors in their one great hour of need?
As always, our very own Black Tulip blends truth (yes, Roel IS getting VEB support) with fiction in a delightful way. The remaining details have to be worked out, and I think it's very significant that the signing event is due to take place in Moscow on TUESDAY next week. Who says the Russians don't read the blog, or have a sense of humor?
Thanks again BT, and long may you continue to provide a 'sideways view' of our favorite American, sorry, Russian "Very Costly (sorry again, Delayed) Jet".
The tulip mania peaked in the Netherlands during the 1630s. The black tulip was the most sought after, until found to be biologically impossible.
456 comments:
«Oldest ‹Older 401 – 456 of 456A 10-year shelf life on the Eclipse airframe? Are you kidding me? What happens then? Does it stink up your hangar, like old food in your refrigerator?
Anyone ever hear Garth Brooks' song "Thank God for Unanswered Prayers"? I'm beginning to think the position holders that lost their deposits were the lucky ones. After writing off the loss, most probably lost somewhere around $100,000 or less.
Fred: Thanks for the info about the base closing. The reports that I've seen point to a large Russian aid package to the country. This may not have been a direct linkage (as in "we'll give you aid if you shut the base"), but maybe it provided enough $ that the country could independently choose the base closure (based on the incidents you cite).
I've also seen reports about Georgian provocations that started the war there, but those came well afterwards and were not widely reported here, so most Americans think Russia was acting badly. (I reserve judgment - but I least I know it is a more complicated situation.)
I don't think badly of Russians. And I don't think US policy is anti-Russian. Each has their own interests and point of view and there is a recognition by both sides that it is important and worthwhile to work these out.
ECLIPSE AVIATION CORPORATION
AIRCRAFT DATA PLATE
Model: EA50
Packing Plant: ABQ
Packing Date: Jan. 2007
Best If Used By: Jan. 2017
Store below 0 degC in darkened space.
Return with original packaging if dissatisfied with product.
Package may not seem full as it was packed by weight not volume.
I don't think badly of Russians. And I don't think US policy is anti-Russian. Each has their own interests and point of view and there is a recognition by both sides that it is important and worthwhile to work these out.
If the US wants to wage economic warfare on the Russians, let them have Eclipse and send over a bunch of PHBs and Verns to create a money pit over there. The Russians are getting the same scam that we in the US got with claims of hundreds of units to be produced per year. Other than the language difference, the pitch to NM and the pitch to Russia seem about the same - they'll produce massive volumes of aircraft and will create an aviation hub at the site of manufacturing. The Governor of Ulyanvosk seems to be saying what the Mayor of ABQ said a few years ago in regards to Eclipse(Jet).
Fred: I am no expert in US-Russian relations. But given the importance of the relationship, the matters where there are differences are well known. I don't follow it closely enough to say who is right or wrong in each. But it seems that the truth often lies somewhere between. What is put out for "public consumption" is often a self-serving simplification.
I too studied economics and I have worked on wall street so I'm much more interested in the financial crisis, and the coming wholesale restructuring of the financial system. Eclipse is one of the many "excesses" during the boom times, and there were many enablers. It is a story that is not so well know outside of ABQ and aviation enthusiasts.
an interesting resource to learn more about stir frying aluminium
http://www.niar.twsu.edu/researchlabs/ajt_overview.asp
current owners have life-limited jets due to uncertainty of stir-fry long-term safety.
Is it due to stir-fry uncertainty, or was it part & parcel to the Wedge's business model?
Refer back to FBM's post from 7:51 this morning - if Wedge could substantially reduce unit cost on product liability insurance by limiting life to ten years, wouldn't he do it? It would be consistent with the EAC ethos to allow potential customers to assume that their FPJs would be flyable and resellable in 20 or 30 years ( like any other plane they might be considering ), without pointing out that limitation to them.
10,000 hours/cycles really isn't a horrible limitation - per listings on Controller, there are virtually no bizjets less than 20 years old that have exceeded that. 10 years is a killer. Let's assume 250 hours per year for personal use - and a mere million bucks ( the original pretense of the FPJ's existence ) to replace it. That's $400 per hour. The low fuel consumption numbers ain't saving Kenny a damned cent!
It'd be tempting to call it the Bic Lighter Jet, if the name weren't already taken
( Pictures included for the benefit of Mr. Goat )
Buddy can you spare a dime?
( Or four thousand of them? Per hour? )
DI
jack :
well , i am not saying that USA has an anti-RU policy ...
but the best way to keep what seems to be prominent for you can be achieved by being the Best or avoiding that others become better than you can be with a limited-by-public-opinion resources ...
as you said , different countries , divergent interests ...
at the best , we could agree that to make any form of agreement BOTH parties have to be ready to make compromises...
which unfortunately has been mostly missing in the last few (i would say 8 , but then most would say that i am biased ! ;-) ) years !
who's right & who's wrong ? no one really ...
one didn't want to lower his pretensions , the other one didn't want to be played has it used to be in recent past ...
very difficult to reach any kind of agreement in those terms ....
like Iran , anyone in capability of reading , should learn their history since 19th century , then it become so obvious the why of the now-situation ...!
very simple , you only need some curiosity ...
about EAC , since you did ECO. you may have heard of "Behavior of Irrational Expectations " ...
some call it "Lumpen-proletariat & lumpen-investors " sure we can find quite a lot of them in the saga ....
so EAC had ALL characters common to all bubbles ... last one was just a mega-one ...!
one of the reason , why seeing banks accepting "Notes" as pure-gold brings me a big giggle and a "will they learn , one day ?"
Interestingly, there is a NYT editorial regarding US-Russian relations today. It says, in part:
"President George W. Bush spent years looking the other way while Mr. Putin harassed opponents, stifled a free press and bullied Russia’s neighbors. While he was busy looking into Mr. Putin’s eyes, Mr. Bush also ignored Russia’s list of grievances — many illegitimate, but not all.
President Obama must not repeat either mistake. The Russians gave him fair warning last week of how difficult this relationship could be. Just days before Mr. Biden spoke, the Kremlin “encouraged” the former Soviet republic of Kyrgyzstan — with a $2.15 billion pledge of loans and aid — to give notice that it is closing an American base that supplies United States forces in Afghanistan."
The editorial doesn't say that Russia has offered to allow supply transit through Russia (which Russia already allows for some NATO countries/supplies) but that's probably because the US military may not too comfortable with that. Nor does it mention US behavior during Russia's occupation of Afganistan in the 80's -(probably because it is irrelevant now that the cold war is over?!)
Sorry, I know this is getting off topic.
Suggestion to RP, for EAI's prepaid service plans:
Jet Complete POS
Pay at the second window,
DI
The 10 calendar year limit is likely either the result of very poor work on the part of Eclipse in negotiating the limitations, or it is the result of FAA concern over a new manufacturer with unknown manufacturing and quality capabilities (my personal belief).
I am fairly confident that there are no structural concerns over the FSW technique.
And Cardinal Ken is now what, 12-15% through the life of his prize posession and has only covered some 60-80,000 miles.
Assuming that EAC intended to (or did) complete a fatigue and durability/damage tolerance test and analysis, I would expect the limitation to grow to a more conventional range unless a decision was taken to keep the exposure low (talk about one way to keep production numbers up).
Again, this all Macht's Nicht as there is no foreseeable market or business plan that does anything other than incinerate cash at the 8 and 9 figure rate, per year.
Several people are curious about VEBs' commitment to Roel. I've had various sources for these, none of whom were named Ken Meyer, and I can confidently state the following:-
1. VEB gave ETIRC written assurances that the money was going to made available.
2. An individual issued an invitation to Roel to attend a 'signing event' in Moscow last Tuesday. This individual has an unspecified status.
Thus we have a situation where VEB said they would provide the money, subject to various conditions. Another person seems to have jumped the gun in issuing the invitation to Moscow.
But there is more....
Certain professionals attached to EAC have been getting anxious about the situation.
VERY anxious.
I'm told that Roel has been given a deadline, and that it's a pretty 'hard and fast' one. He is, I'm also told, making every effort to resolve the issues which became apparent during the early part of this week.
The wheels have not quite fallen off this particular wagon.
But they are making very worrying noises....
Shane
9Z,
I suspect the 10 year shelf life is a "provisional" limitation, along with 10,000 hours- both based on the results of static testing, which apparently went very well. I imagine the 10 year window is to give Eclipse time to conduct fatigue testing.
I wonder how many hours are on the "high time" Eclipse? I would suppose it would be on one of the sales demo planes, if any exist.
Anyone know?
Thanks.
Shane, can you elaborate on the type/kind of professionals at EAC and what kind of concerns
1. VEB gave ETIRC written assurances that the money was going to made available.
2. An individual issued an invitation to Roel to attend a 'signing event' in Moscow last Tuesday. This individual has an unspecified status.
Thus we have a situation where VEB said they would provide the money, subject to various conditions. Another person seems to have jumped the gun in issuing the invitation to Moscow.
I don't think this is what the Russians had in mind when they entered into doing business with Roel and Eclipse years ago and as such the Russians might be saying what's going on now doesn't meet the terms and conditions. Given how this is Russian law, Roel probably isn't in the driver's seat.
I'm trying to understand the alleged deal and I don't see why the Russians would give $125M for patent rights/royalties right up front. That seems like an absurd amount of money and I'm guessing that it was based on Roel making between 400 and 800 units per year. If Roel was to make 50 units for year for the next 5 years that comes out to $500K per unit in royalties. If on the other hand it is 400 units per year, it comes out to $62.5K per unit.
What I'm guessing the reality is with these royalties is that the Russians will pay up to $125M over time based on how many units Roel produces and sells and maybe there's other such benchmarks required to release the purse strings like how many employees in Russia and whatnot. Roel is now using that to try and demand all the money up front before Roel delivers a single aircraft...that's very much how Eclipse has operated by negotiating based on high volumes (and these same high volumes have been touted in Russia) and so it would be par for the course for the royalty negotiations to have been done the same way as everything else.
Getting back to Eclipse:
In Ch11 or Ch7, Eclipse is probably worth less in Feb'09 than it was worth in Jul'08, Sep'08, or even Nov'08.
RP is not the only one whose plans have been ravaged, but what was the thought process that went into those plans?
1) When did RP know how bad was Eclipse's financial and business state of affairs? The sudden sacking of Wedge leads one to believe that this came as a surprise in Jul'08. And the way Wedge was sacked may indicate that RP and the Board recognized how bad the company's situation was at that time. (Was bankruptcy an option at that time?) It appears that RP had a chat with his Russian friends. (who else did they talk to? Were the Russians/VEB the only alternative?)
By Sept. 1th an agreement was reached in principal with VEB (as show in info supplied to the court that was posted earlier). WELL BEFORE BANKRUPTCY WAS FILED.
Leading to the question: why not pull the trigger on the VEB financing in September/October? Were they working on such a transaction and it then became evident that there was too much risk and too little reward to make it worthwhile? If so, who called 'time'? Did VEB balk or did RP/Russians see an opportunity for increased returns?
What VEB would have gotten from the bankruptcy filing is the financing of a stronger company post bankruptcy. But if they are the ones that balked - but they still wanted to be in the transaction - any businessperson would want to have that in writing or look for another source of financing. And RP seems to have been careful about most of the other aspects of this deal.
If RP/Russians chose to do bankruptcy then maybe they have been relying on the "AIP" (Agreement in Principal, but also Aerolymer Investment Partners, ironic?) with VEB from Sep'08 (maybe with some verbal confirmation). In that case, there would be no strong legal or moral obligation for VEB to provide the financing given the substantial change in economic conditions.
OF COURSE, THIS IS ALL SPECULATION.
speculation... good wor.
Apparently, so was the financing.
Boys and girls, there's enough BS in tis story to fill a few large barns...
Remember, slep with dogs, get fleas...
stay tuned
And remember, use your brains, and think more about the big picture than the details. The details are not your friend.
My previous post was made before Shane's insight (a few posts back). Given Shane's info, it seems that VEB IS committed AND indicates that VEB was the one that balked and/or at least was completely on board regarding the bankruptcy filing.
I've been trying to determine the strength of the VEB commitment as that is key to whether the transaction closes or not. Shane's post answers that question.
Ok I see a lot of focus on the friction stir welding being the issue. This life limit has nothing to do with the FSW, as evidenced by the fact that both wing structures, which do not incorporate FSW have the same limit. I think it is not unusual to see life limits set low on new production aircraft, and they get increased as the fleet ages and proves itself structurly. 10 years is a long way off. The life limit that concerns me the most right now is the pilot and copilot side window. Currently my logs say to discard after 600 cycles. If those limits are not increased or the parts are no longer available then that becomes the first area of concern for most of us.
Coldwet,
Off line answer....
Usual address (I've mislaid yours, sorry)
Shane
I have just been advised that Fuji heavy industries may have used FSW on the wing assemblies, So I stand corrected on that. THanks for bringing that to my attention!!!
Don’t lose focus. “FSW” is not the issue . . . but rather the type of alloy being “welded”. Many metals can be joined by the process, but questions are raised with alloys that are not normally joined by any other welding process.
gadfly
(Friction welding is not new . . . and related methods go back many centuries. You would be most surprised at how few things are truly new.)
Knowing SOME (not all) of the history of Eclipse, I've been cynical and skeptical of the new Eclipski. First, when there was a report of a huge restructuring of Russian bank debt (which later turned out to be erroneous in several important details), and then thinking through the strength of VEBs support for RP.
I came to the conclusion that 1) the Russian government seems to be acting responsibly (Eclipski is not being funded while other Russian companies and debts are ignored - even if there is not enough "bailout" money to go around), and Shane reported that RP seems to enjoy strong support from VEB.
Also, it makes sense that the transaction doesn't close until the US govt has cleared the transaction so if thats whats holding things up, then it is no reflection on the deal itself or anyone involved in it.
I know that there is a lot of frustration with Eclipse: they pushed the envelope with their technology and their business practices. I know that the 'critic blog' was started by people who believed that their business plan made no sense and tried to let people know of their concerns (Wedge responded with a lawsuit). And I know that there is a lot of continuing skepticism about ETRIC/RP because RP has been involved with Eclipse for a long time, and there's a lot about RP's plans that doesn't add up and/or we don't understand.
Still, in the specific areas I've looked into, RP and the Russian govt have seemed to be acting responsibly, not badly (yes, some will argue that any money going to Eclipse is irresponsible) and they each have the resources to understand what they are getting into.
Furthermore, why would a Russian business person (presumably there are some involved) try to swindle the Russian government? And what incentive does the Russian government have in financing a project that will anger (foreign, mostly) lux jet buyers in the way that Eclipse has. The Russian govt also may be the kind of patient, long-term and deep-pocketed investor that Eclipse needs to do/redo the necessary engineering and avionics, etc.
Prehaps our skepticism should allow for the possibility that with the bankruptcy clearing away hundreds of billions of debt and with Russian government support, maybe Eclipse/Eclipski's new owners have the will and the incentive to make a real effort at being a responsible company with better products and service to its clients?
One would think that they've learned SOMETHING and want to avoid, as much as possible, another disaster!
To summarize the criticisms I see on the blog:
1. The plane is incomplete, possibly unsafe.
2. Depositors were swindled, investors and suppliers lost a lot of money
3. owners and employees have also lost
4. Production in Russia makes no sense
5. RP is part of the problem (been involved for so long he must have known of the bad company practices) and is self-dealing (CEO of ETRIC and Eclipse)
But it seems that 1) Eclipse's worst practices occurred under Wedge (I don't know enough to determine RP's responsibility for bad practices but he seems to have been "part of the solution' by sacking Wedge), 2) Losses by depositors, investors, suppliers, employees, etc. were inevitable (as the 'Eclipse critic' blog was pointing out for a long time), 3) All the parties in the current transaction know Eclipse/Eclipski's history and prospects and RP's conflict and seem to see this as the best way forward (this point was made by Shane earlier).
3) All the parties in the current transaction know Eclipse/Eclipski's history and prospects and RP's conflict and seem to see this as the best way forward (this point was made by Shane earlier).
With that being said, the deal might be going through, just I don't see how it could be considered responsible for $125M to be paid before one aircraft is even built. I see that if the deal is going through that way, the Russian government isn't being responsible or the deal is different than what Roel told the courts and the Russians are being responsible. Roel's description of the Russia deal I can't see as being responsible by the Russians. A few months ago I believe it was posted here giving Putin's statements about state funding for projects and how that Putin is personally being results-oriented on them and with that in mind, handing out over $100 million royalty payday before the factory has been built or an airplane has been built just seems contradictory.
We need to remember that the VEB money is not tied to the ETIRC purchase of EAC.
The $205M is the VEB's investment in a "shovel ready" factory. Too bad they really need a pitch fork to manage the BS.
RP needs money to operate EclipseJet. He plans on buying equity in EAI with money that ETIRC gets from ETARUS, that gets it from the VEB.
He probably laments the VEB expectations, while at the same time happy he has a source of funds.
ETRUS better find a way to build a factory, or RP might be as limited as the airplane.
Gad,
Yeps....Friction welding has been around for as long as I can remember and before my time. FSW is the same, it's jus' the technique that’s a little different. Originally, friction welding was simply spinning or moving two surfaces together until they plasticized or in some cases liquefied, stopped movement until solidified. "Stir fry" is the same principle but there is a spinning tool that actually creates the friction. Just a refinement of friction welding so that you manufacture large odd shaped parts. The type of welding itself is as Gad says, is not really "disruptive" or new at all, just a refinement of an old process.
I still think the real reason for "10" year shelf life is the liability factor. Many years ago I had the opportunity to speak with the owner of "old" Piper Aircraft, Stewart Millar for several hours. Piper had a hell of a time trying to sell the bankrupt company because of the liability issue of having to worry about every aircraft EVER made by them. He stepped in with a different approach that ultimately failed but WAS working. He simply was NOT rich enough to sustain the company in general market turndown at the time.
I think the fatigue issue is worth exploring. but I think the real reason at this point in time and juncture for 10 year shelf life is purely liability issues untill this company develops further if ever...
I would still like to hear from someone working in the "stir fry" department at EAC to see if they post treat the joints to bring them up to FULL strength and integrity. If they do not, then the joints are actually not as good as riveted joints and DO have a HAZ that "could" succumb at some time to fatigue cracking.
Dave: Its still not a done deal. It may be "irresponsible" for the Russian State/VEB to make a $125m upfront investment as you say - or to make any kind of investment in this economic environment. Maybe instead of "responsible" I should say "reasonable given the circumstances" (and that is qualified: I certainly don't know the whole picture) and probably have an incentive to make the business work.
Still, the Russian economic situation has gotten very bad, very quickly and that threatens the deal, as does the ("rumored") US govt investigation, and now Shane refers to some sort of deadline being given from Eclipse.
In fact, it may be that VEB would like to pull out of the deal now, but since RP (and others) has been working with them and has a written letter of support/commitment, it is more difficult for VEB to say NO.
In fact, it may be that VEB would like to pull out of the deal now, but since RP (and others) has been working with them and has a written letter of support/commitment, it is more difficult for VEB to say NO.
A Letter of Intent/Memorandum of Understanding/etc (they go by many different names) is standard in any large deal and it doesn't mean that said deal will go through and as such Roel has got no grounds for pressuring the VEB. Roel might be playing up the LOI, but he's gotta know that LOIs aren't done deals but are just part of preliminary discussions about deals that frequently fall through. I think if some third party had wanted to bid on Eclipse and that third party showed their financing was coming from an LOI rather than an actual executed agreement, I don't think Roel would have let that third party bid due to insufficient proof of being able to complete the sale if the bid was accepted.
Dave:
From Shane's earlier post:
VEB gave ETIRC written assurances that the money was going to made available.
That seems stronger than an LOI. But yes, it doesn't say what legal or business form those assurances came in.
We should pray for the souls onboard the commuter that just went into a house in NY USA. Possibly a DH -8. With Jackrabbit spouting about world economies and everyone else following suite with a bunch of BS just thought I'd come in and break things up a bit. The last few days have been nothing but speculating about Russian currency and what not. Save your keyboard keys for something better folks. ---Bassmaster the Asshole
I forgot to mention the souls that WERE NOT ABOARD the plane. But again Jackrabbit I don't get to this blog too often anymore but when I do I have to sift through your BS apparently enabled by my good friend ;) BEG...not to mention GADs and EDTs crazy ass geriatric rants.
Again---humbly I should rename myself assholemasster! ---Bass
Dave I went back to look at a post from Zed on Feb. 9th. It shows the wording of a VEB LOI:
In compliance with the decision on the Bank’s participation in the project “Construction in the Ulianovsk Region of a Plant Engaged in Manufacture, Assembly and After-sale Service of Eclipse 500 Jets” adopted by Vnesheconombank’s Supervisory Board on 15 September 2008, the Bank will be in position to arrange the project financing in the amount of USD 205 million, USD 125 million of the said amount will be allocated for payment obligations (royalty) towards the owner of a patent on manufacturing Eclipse 500 aircrafts (USD 85 million will be paid until 23 January 2009, USD 40 million not later than 15 February 2009), subject to signing a loan agreement and fulfilling by ‘ETARUS’ CJSC all conditions precedent provided by the loan agreement.
We hope that this information might be helpful in verifying our interest to participate in the project “Construction in the Ulianovsk Region of a Plant Engaged in Manufacture, Assembly and After-sale Service of Eclipse 500 Jets” together with ETIRC Aviation S.a.r.l and ‘ETARUS’ CJSC.?
I had assumed that this was produced on Sept 15th because it references a decision on that day. I had also assumed that Shane's "written assurances" were different.
But maybe this was the written assurance that was provided to the BK court, or to ETRIC prior to the BK!? And yes, it is just an LOI.
TurboProp_Pilot,
"(FSW) A high volume "aluminum gluing" process with a continuous seam that is probably stronger than rivets..."
Yup. A continuous weld avoids stress concentration at rivets.
"The machine is big and very expensive (>$5 million) and the tooling is precision milled aluminum the size of the assembly to be FSWed, so is also very expensive and CANNOT BE EASILY MODIFIED."
Yup. Almost impossible to modify. We've discussed the aspects of HAZ (Heat Affected Zone). The fact the tool is aluminum, probably helps wick heat away quickly. This would seem to be a good thing- maybe Gadfly and Flyboymark can comment on this hypothesis.
"If Wedge had built prototypes with traditional rivets and found that the engines were inadequate, then the wing could have been easily redesigned with longer span and more area, eliminating the need for tip tanks."
Nope.
Not to disagree, but I seem to be the only one who thinks the wing really IS adequate.
1) The tip tanks were an add-on to contain fuel expansion.*
2) And, stall speed is really low (69 knots, per Eclipse web site). I would imagine to add more fuel later, they were just lengthened to minimize the increased drag that would accompany an increase in diameter.
3) And, cruise speed is good (an arguable point: what's good? Well, slightly faster than a Mustang).
4) And, the wing passed static test with flying colors, so to speak*.
So heck, maybe not perfect, but still, I think in all performance aspects, it appears to be an outstanding design.
*Where did I get this information? Some crazy blog- about 2 years ago !!
:)
"Wing Fittings" Nov 27, 2006
MasterBasster-
Why do you try so hard ?
We believed you the first time !
Thanks Zed. Looks like it is either a -8 or Q400. ---MasterBasster
More blasts from the same past
Wing Fittings, Nov 27, 2006
----------------------------------
ATM:
"I work for an air taxi company and I am not that familiar with this end of the business...can anyone clarify? Is it fair to be skeptical about what is being said?"
Tsk Tsk, ATM. You were so trusting back then !! .)
---------------------------------
AeroObserver:
"Blogs might contain news, but that doesn't make them a news publication. They also contain opinion, speculation and plain flat out incorrect facts. If a newspaper or magazine contained all of these things, they'd quickly be sued and put out of business".
Heck- if they contain plain flat out correct facts, they're sued anyway!!
OUR THANKS TO GUNNER FOR SMASHING THE SUIT !!
"Take what you read in blogs with a grain of salt -- be sure to check the "facts" that are posted. That said, this blog does raise some interesting questions. Questions are good...that's how we learn".
Right-O, AeroObserver !!
--------------------------------
Buckerfan:
"As I have reported on this blog, I was an Eclipse deposit holder for about 18 months and was an avid reader of the Eclipse "customers only" website. I have to tell you however, in the last few months your blog, Stan, has become a far more useful source of insight and critique of the Eclipse".
Right-O Buckerfan!!
THANKS TO STAN AND SHANE FOR A GREAT SITE !!
It would be interesting to know how Buckerfan fared with his adventure into Wedge-o-nomics.
---------------------------------
Also for our friends Ringtail, who "stood up" to Wedge's campaign to harass the public and intimidate the employees in a vain campaign bilk the aviation and investment community out of 100's of millions more dollars (probably, billions - and I do mean with an "s", literally).
THANKS RINGTAIL !!
--------------------------------
More from Buckerfan:
"Stan, perhaps your blog could become THE source for the nascent VLJ industry. Perhaps this could be a commercial venture, start to take a little advertising. I dont know where else people can go to find unfiltered news on the industry, with lots of insightful commentary. Just a thought. The need is certainly there".
Hmmmm. AviationWeek-NG ???
---------------------------------
NOW, THE REALLY JUICY PART !!!!
From Bambazonke, quoting Wedge (and remember, this is Nov 27, 2006):
"Eclipse fully intends to meet its obligation for the delivery schedule. We are positioned with an achievable plan to deliver approximately 10 aircraft in 2006 and 515 aircraft in 2007.
"The receipt of the six month progress payments is connected to the continued flow of parts to build your aircraft. This payment schedule is tied directly to the production schedule."
"We are asking that all of our customers work with us and support us during this transition from a development company to a production company. Now is the time for shared communication and mutual support."
"We will continue to give you the information you need to prepare for your Eclipse 500 delivery. As our production process moves up the learning curve, we will project more specific aircraft delivery dates."
"Eclipse is focused and committed to complete this production certification process and deliver your aircraft."
STAN:
"I have read and re-read and re-read and re-read Vern's statement. He is turning into a real silver-tounged devil."
Stan- you are the silver-tounged devil, with such a humble understatement !!!
:)
Bassmaster,
Ah, welcome back (ah, I think .)
The crash you mention is bad- sketchy details: Approach to Buffalo NY, 10 miles out, 10:10 PM, Dash 8-400Q, 48 on board, 1 on the ground.
I fear our icing discussion just a few days ago is pertinent- looks like the NOAA icing page shows BAD news- icing Airmets for the northeast (Minnesota-to-Ohio-to-Maine).
NOAA ADDS Icing
I hope our Eclipse operator friends employ proper prudence and airmanship, as I'm sure they have and will continue.
JackRabbit,
Regarding Bassmaster's comments directed your way, I (re-)offer the following:
Feb 10- Goat:
"Jackrabbit,
Welcome- you're putting up a lot of good info- and putting up with a lot- two valuable traits!!"
I think JackRabbit has been making fantastic posts, and stimulating the blog- the past three days have been some of the best reading ever. The thoughts are deep, and have spurred much independent reading on my part.
Finance, global politics, metallurgy, airplanes- it really has been top notch reading. Thanks to everyone who's been contributing ESPECIALLY Jackrabbit, and ESPECIALLY for his numerous and detailed posts.
JACK,
PLEASE KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK !!
ALL OF IT !!
BEG I see your point. But...Jack is an aviation enthusiast and ex wall street guy. Let's get down to EAC though. Does anyone know the weakest link in FIKI for the 500?...the ONE reason that no FIKI bird exists?
---Basshole
Contemplating the sad events with the -8, a conversation that I had with an old Bonanza driver friend, earlier this week, came to mind- he was relating a 1 inch ice build up that forced him to land 20 miles short of his desired destination, and stay there for 36 hours. He was smart, and knew when to call it quits, and didn't try to squeak in the last 20 miles.
I don't have any really bad icing experience, so maybe others can comment for the sake of my fellow neophytes:
My Bonanza friend mentioned a too-often icing scenerio is:
1) Speed goes down for flap extension
2) Flaps go down, center of lift shifts aft
3) Elevator deflection increased to compensate for pitch down moment
4) Horizontal tail is already degraded due to ice accumulation, with added elevator deflection, the tail stalls, the nose drops, and added drag from ice and low altitude on approach doesn't allow enough margin for recovery.
I'm not speculating on the cause of the -8 accident; rather, to help prevent any of us from getting in an accident, I'd appreciate comments.
Thanks.
Hi Bass,
Well, regarding no FIKI Eclipse birds yet, seems like someone posted that FIKI was conducted simultaneously with EASA cert, not sure why. Maybe FIKI ice boot control requires Avio-NG 1.5 xyz, which has not been retrofitted yet? Or maybe different boots need to be installed (I don't think so, but am not sure- seems like Eclipse was changing vendors- HA HA HA, sorry- that's par for the course with them).
Bass- your opinion??
Who rained on Basmasters Parade?
If you don't like the posters style just skip the posts.
I would guess that the only posters who I always read are KEN, EA500S, BT, CWMR and my own :)
Jack & dave :
the russian deal is (was) part of a multi-folds plan to enhance industrial production by creating firms,jobs and prospects in the chosen zones ...
this is where i feel not so good as Etrick was ONLY a part of it ,a bit like one could isolate a wave into the ocean ...
With the whole downturn ,what is the point to pay fees , royalties or whatever UPFRONT ?
MY understanding of the plot is this : YES , Veb accepted the Fpj-plant as a "go for it" ...
but the conditions of the lending are PROBABLY different of what was touted by RP ( speculations , off-course , i doubt anyone will ever know REALLY !)
i feel that the condition were as such :
Loan granted by VEB for BUILDING the plant (not to run it , if the Bank would Build it , Run it , Finance it on day-to-day basis ,sell the planes , and sweep the floor at end of day = Question is : what do they need RP for ?)
SO , IF it can makes some sens to BUILD the plant on Russian Soil
(to create jobs , to attract sides-business such hotels for clients visiting plant , etc ...etc...)
it make , in revenge ABSOLUTELY no sens for the Russians to give money for something still in the void and to keep ABQ open ... (in fact it would like throwing a handful of coins up in the air and predict where they are going to fall down ... Ru or ABQ ? ABQ or RU ...?)
this is where the version "could be" or "are different" and are dangerously close to what did happen "under some others skies , in some others times ..." (the story about L&H ...i won't insult anyone in reminding that one of the best way to explain a plot is to look for common denominator , which in the case IS RP ...)
at the time was : inflated order-book , completely artificial accountancy and last but not least :presence of some "foreign interests" ... (asians , if memory serve me well!)
does it remind anyone of anything ?
in other way :
the lending make more sens IF it is a loan granted to a project Sustained by a Russian (the President of Etirc is D.Bolotin who is supposed to be rich )
then , the VEB-story become more like a tree hiding the forest ...but take much more sens ...!
from a State-project (not making really too much sens) to a private collateral bizz project ...(which would be infinitely more normal and would explain so better the present situation ...)
so actually it wouldn't be a state-apparatus trying to find how can chew something ... but more normally the relation between a bank (which happens to belong to the state ,meant for re-developing soviet-neglected areas ...) and one of its client (even if it happen to be a rich one and willing to take opportunity raised by Govt to develop some areas ...
EVEN if it sounds much less glamorous than "the biggest country in World falling in love for Fpj" ....)
you see ALL bubbles have the same characteristics :
*it is big
*it is unprecedented
*it is to change old order
*it rely on things no one really understand at time of appearance
*it is commonly explained by the same ones who do NOT understand or know everything by already-made concept such as : "you do not see the big picture" or "this is progress, why do you refuse it?" .... some even use the I Remain Amused
do you see some already known , in this ? do you recognize anything ?
i forgot , sorry !
in 1929 , the main reason for the Bubble that created the "big depression" was ...RADIO !
everybody was , then , convinced the speed of diffusion of informations would enable peoples to react fast enough to avoid loosing and ,hence , ONLY winning ...
Communism :
they were sure of creating a "new kind of man" so sure of this that they believed that anyone would control his blood-circulation by the strength of his own mind ...
John Law Bubble:
Louisiana was such a wonderful unknown place on earth that diamonds , gold and whatever would be picked-up by anyone wishing ...
funnily enough , the $ story in recent times is exactly the same ...
so , where is the next one ?
are we any different 200/300 years after ?
is it still the good old "Panen & Circenses" of Julius Caesar , some 2000 years ago ?
the Roman Empire was calling "Barbarious" anyone NOT taking their way of life ...
now , some others want to protect "their way of life " ...
the more it changes , the more it remain the same ...!
There's a Spanner in the Works
The original 'Bradley Group', who'd tried to extract more detail in the Chapter 11 and Section 353 hearings, have lodged an appeal with the Bankruptcy Court in Delaware.
Basically, they claim that EAI were NOT a 'buyer in good faith', in addition to breeching the 363 code as an 'insider'.
Add that to the FACT that Roel has failed to meet his obligations on the money front.
The Judge now has a difficult choice to make, one which will influence the outcome in a profound manner.
Don't know about you lot, but I think life just got very complicated down ABQ way....
Shane
Monsieur Shane
May i respectfully add this ?
like in any Bubble , peoples starts to get back to their sens ...
reality strikes back !
the question would be :
"Why this group (bradley) is only acting now ?"
i would have thought ALL depositors would have come that this conclusion much before ... and there ACT in front of Judge ...
excepting a happy-end ????
incorrigible optimism ???
Shane,
Big puff of wind to blow away the smoke screen.
What were the highest and lowest price paid for a PArtial Eclipse?
Would you like a fortune cookie with that order?
New post up.
This thread has been one of our most stimulating in the year since I took over as custodian. Thanks to all who contributed, and a special word for the owners and pilots who helped inform the next 'headline post'.
Shane
New, longer wing:
BEG- I have to disagree with you about the wing. A new wing would have allowed:
Room for larger tires and anti-skid, eliminating the excessive wear, poor ride on the ground, and blow outs.
Longer wing: reduced angle of attack at highest altitudes, more area for reduced loading, more room for fuel, able to climb to max altitude in hotter conditions
Allow increase in max weight- with the excellent fuel consumption at altitude, a small increase in fuel capacity would comfortably bring the usable range up to the 1,100 miles +/- desired by most pilots and increase flexibility of the plane.
With a weight increase over 6,000 lbs, the exemptions needed from the FAA for accelerate/stop would be lost but the larger tires and anti-skid would make the numbers acceptable. Probably could have skipped some of the expensive steps to save weight too.
Couple this with a Garmin or L3 cockpit with a separate system for the electronic circuit breakers and Wedge would have had a very economical personal jet, priced at $2.5 million, with the best economics and speed of the class.
And no one would have invested with the realistic sales of 50-150 per year. Go figure.
Turboprop_pilot
Flying, March 2009:
Mac's article about the demise of Eclipse sounds like a posting here. His points about the lasting damage to GA and a well reasoned argument against Baron95's postings about the good Wedge did (and they both fly old Barons).
Shane- you should get permission to re-post here, in case anyone doesn't read Flying.
Turboprop_pilot
BassMaster: In comparison to a the NY crash, a lot seems like BS.
BEG: Thanks for the kind words.
I am new to the blog, and I have no exposure to Eclipse losses. Maybe my best contribution is a fresh set of eyes. I also tried to add little levity.
Whether the buyout works depends on financial and business factors that are hard to analyze. There are lots of ifs, ands, or buts, and nuances. It makes for long posts and follow ups with clarifications.
I am humbled by the knowledge and intelligence of people on the blog, and IF I've been able to add to the discussion and/or thinking of anyone then I am happy to have done so.
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