According to the Governor of Ulyanovsk, Vladimir Putin has interceded on behalf of Eclipse Aviation. The Russian government has increased capitalization of the Vnesheconcom Bank by one hundred billion rubles, almost three billion dollars. Some of this is earmarked for ETIRC.
Asked for comment, a longtime Eclipse supporter said, “I’m just hoping they spend all of it on Eclipse… it would be a wise investment. Heck, for three billion dollars the Russians could annex the whole state of New Mexico. It would offset the bad deal they got on Alaska. I’m going to introduce the Governor of Ulyanovsk to Bill Richardson.”
Asked about the plane being built in Russia he added, “You know the Russians build great farm implements and heavy equipment. Right now the Eclipse 500 could use the robustness of a reliable farm tractor. I’m starting to study the Cyrillic alphabet so I can read the instrument panel. I can’t wait to take Putin for a ride in my jet.”
So we turn to another chapter in the Eclipse saga. Three billion down and three billion to go.
The company as we knew it will recede in the rearview mirror and we have unfinished business. Having had minor supporting roles in the investigations of PanAm 103 and TWA 800, I know survivors of aviation disasters need ‘closure’. Perhaps the blog can assist with this.
I propose an Eclipse Requiem Mass be held at Our Lady of Guadalupe Catholic Church in Albuquerque, New Mexico. We need a mournful but uplifting piece of music, composed for the occasion. I suggest something along the lines of Adagio for Strings by Samuel Barber, or perhaps Requiem by Giuseppe Verdi. With the broad array of talents represented here, there must be a composer in the house.
Several have written here on integrity and ethics but none more eloquently than Gadfly. He is a professed man of faith and is best suited among us to deliver the eulogy. We can expect a thought provoking speech on the mortal temptations of the flesh, tempered with hope for better days. He may wish to call on the members of congregation for their recollections of the departed so start mentally rehearsing your piece. The program will be printed in English, Dutch and Russian with tasteful Eclipse colors.
We need to consider the Eclipse Survivors Memorial. This should be located near the rim of the Meteor Crater in Winslow, Arizona. The soaring aluminum sculpture will of course be fashioned of friction stir welded aluminum. On the front will be the engraved names of all 260 initial owners. An epitaph at the bottom will read, “A small smoking crater beside a giant formerly-smoking crater.”
Smaller text on the back of the monument will list 10% depositors, 60% depositors, investors, employees, politicians, parts suppliers, motel operators and taqueria owners. Affixed to the top of the memorial will be a life-size stature of Vern Raburn, reaching plaintively for the sky. He will be flanked by bronze replicas of the Collier Trophy and Cabot Award. The DayJet monument, complete with a working ant farm, will be located discretely nearby. We need a design competition for these memorials, to be judged by a team selected by Shane.
The dedication ceremony will draw cognoscenti from around the world. Sam Williams will be in back wearing dark glasses and a baseball cap. Bill Richardson will break into inconsolable tears. The service will end by spectators throwing rose petals, Eclipse apparel and memorabilia into the Meteor Crater (with the approval of the National Park Service, of course.) The crowd will retire for refreshments to a large Eclipse tent, preserved and replicating the vast presence and former glory at Oshkosh in year 2000.
Finally the Eclipse Fly-in at Sunriver, Oregon in September needs to be carefully orchestrated. It should be modeled after last year’s Legends aviation meet - billed as the last great roundup of P-51 Mustangs and the men who flew them during World War Two. It should culminate in an Eclipse flyby in the missing man formation. There won’t be a dry eye in the crowd.
We need volunteers. Can we count on the blog to assist Eclipse survivors in their one great hour of need?
As always, our very own Black Tulip blends truth (yes, Roel IS getting VEB support) with fiction in a delightful way. The remaining details have to be worked out, and I think it's very significant that the signing event is due to take place in Moscow on TUESDAY next week. Who says the Russians don't read the blog, or have a sense of humor?
Thanks again BT, and long may you continue to provide a 'sideways view' of our favorite American, sorry, Russian "Very Costly (sorry again, Delayed) Jet".
The tulip mania peaked in the Netherlands during the 1630s. The black tulip was the most sought after, until found to be biologically impossible.
456 comments:
«Oldest ‹Older 201 – 400 of 456 Newer› Newest»jack :
don't forget one "detail"
any situation and value is ONLY relative to the period it exist in !
in fact , i would be tempted to say that russians "liquid" investments may be better than most things we can get hold of in many places of world ...
but then , many would ask what i am thinking about ... ;-)
as for Eclipsky making some sens to "diversify" economy ...
i don't really agree !
in the long post i made before , i tried to point out that most of times GOVT (anywhere) are reacting in a bit foolish way ...
to a bad "green situation" is commonly opposed a worse "blue situation" ...
no action without reaction !
so Russia (in the present case) was(is) a country heavily Dependant on sales of Raw and Natural resources ...
which is good for the buyer , much less good for the country ...
a way to diversify would be to sell Transformed Resources , modernize old factories (even if it might be painful , lots of jobs and habits at stake) and develop as much as possible the production of "finished product" in the most widely spread form ...
basically speaking what China does , but fail to make its own population to really "improve" (whatever it means and at condition they want ...) their living conditions ...
often , in such a case , economists talk about the "Natural resources curse" ...
where a country with No resources has a tendency to be more productive , more organized , more ...
so Fpj and Eclipsky would be ONLY the bad replaced by the worse ...!
(bad=lack of diversification)
i am sorry to point it this straight , but this is where USA (and any previously Top-notch country) started to create the problems which are going to destroy its leadership :
when things are in abundance , next step they are corrupted in any form ...
when was USA a leader ?
when it was producing !
when did it start to ditch ?
when peoples started to believe it would be for ever ...!
underlining this : the more you have , the more careful you should be ! it is so easy to be drunken by this "feeling" of limitless ..
it always been the same in human history !
__________________________________
your point on the € is partly wrong (don't worry , we'll agree on something ...one day ! ;-) )
as the € is falling against the $ for (may be ) an other reason :
it is called Carry-trade !
if i can borrow $ at 0.25% rate and invest in € at 2% , by doing nothing really , i already made 1.25% , which is better than most stocks and without a iota of risks ...!
when the BCE's president say we are going to lower interest rates , the deal become less attractive ... less demand on € = € down !
Japaneses (and others) used to do this not long ago on $/Yen
and
if your point would be right , the Fed's now lends money at nearly 0% , so borrowing should be very cheap ... i guess it isn't ... why ?
because a good way of working for a bank :
take NO risks
if you ever take risks , spread the costs on whoever has no word to say ...
if the taken risks bring lots of return : keep it , open champagne bottles and praise your wonderful sens for bizz !
if the risks produce adverse result , call for help the very one you were charging before ...
i don't know why , i feel this is what going on ...!
"1) 10 years of development time
2) $3B in funding
3) A compromised certification process."
is this really what it takes to be successful? or is this a definition of disaster?
Also, for new company to emerge in GA, there has to be a need, not coverd by the OEMs... if the business case can be made by a newco, it can be also more easily (probably) be made by the establishment.
So, I would offer there's a lot of innovation and a clear line of sight to most all applicable technologies which could provide a competitive advantage in GA.
When the risk-reward analysis is favorable (not zero risk, but practically favorable) the OEMs act.
Looking back, we may wish to glorify what Vern was doing, but everyone saw the FJX-2... he was the only one ready to take on the development risk of the engine and the airframe, plus he added his own "expertise" computers for Avionics.
All the potential rewards were outweighed by tremendous risk.
Then he saw there were not enough customers, so he trumpeted the air-limo market... a "new" market, not yet established (by his own description) and aded even more risk.
The point? Not many expereinced or wise people would take on this risk. For good reason.
You end up blowing 12 years, $3B, and you need to skirt the cert process. For what? 250 subsidized jets?
Its not a success, its a failure, IMO.
I am still waiting to see the recipe for success on this plane... perhaps someone will figure it out, but I suspect, its a product for a small market, and therefore impossible to price it for anyone's perception of value all things considered.
airtaxi ..
yes !
i see Fpj as a chain ...
the few strong link (maillon)
*Hype
*Funds raising
*Dream
the numerous bad link :
*quality
*avionics
*maintenance
*viability
*etc
*etc
*etc
to be continued for as long as all glitch have to be found and unveiled ...
now if you make a chain with alternatively good and bad link ...
would you attach yourself over a cliff , using such a chain ?
me not !
Bloomberg has a new article up that suggests that Russia is being more responsible that it seemed earlier.
Among other things, it now says that:
1. It was European banks that suggested the restructuring talks.
2. The debt that would be restructured could be less than $100b (last night $400b was cited but that seems to be EU banks entire exposure, not what is under discussion).
3. The Russian government "... has pledged more than $200 billion in emergency funding to support banks and companies as the 62 percent decline in oil prices since August and the ruble’s 34 percent tumble against the dollar push the world’s biggest energy supplier into its worst economic crisis since the government defaulted on $40 billion of domestic debt in 1998."
Also from the article:
“I don’t see en-masse restructuring at this point,” said Eugene Belin, head of fixed income, currencies and commodities at Citigroup in Moscow. “Individual restructurings will take place but we’re not in a place now where we need to restructure systematically.”
It's Tuesday!
Remains to be seen if this deal actually closes or not. Lot's of moving parts that have to mesh to close.
Shane, any update?
TBMs
Nope.
Don't expect to hear a whole lot until later (as in evening, EST) today. It's possible that any word could be delayed by 'various factors'.
If there's one thing I've learned with this saga, it's patience....
Shane
PS Rest assured, as soon as I hear anything, I'll post it.
"And thank got they [Jaguar] are (mostly) rid of cheap, low quality, poorly built, substandard American Ford parts."
Odd, every review I have ever read of Jaguar cars indicate the quality dramatically improved after the Ford buyout. Helping a friend keep his pre-Ford Jag running has been a long-time, never-ending hobby.
Tbm ...
Banks and offices are closed already in Moscow , for quite some time ...
it is nearly half-past seven Pm , moscow time ...
so IF this thing has been conducted to happy ending , Some should be touting very soon ...
unless the check bounces ...! ;-)
Some of us have commented a lot about macro and micro economic issues affecting the GA industry and EAC specifically. So this is just something I'd like to throw on the wall to see if anyone has insight on the topic. Please see the link:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austrian_Business
_Cycle_Theory
Long story short is that I've been festering with just ....angst, for lack of a better word. Or maybe I've just played too may SimCity games and think that **I** have all the solutions, if only the morons at the top could get clue.
So, there is this Austrian Biz Cycle Theory that claims recessions are CAUSED by cheap credit. Mainly this appears to happen when the central banks set interest rates too low. I know the good old USA didn't start with a Federal Reserve ....and if memory serves, JP Morgan was doing a lot of the 'stuff' the Fed does today. That is, he was The Fed until the law was passed in 1913.
Anyone else agree (or disagree) that there could be a correlation with interest rates and recessions? I've always assumed the Fed was truly "independent" but the more I think about it, the more I think they set the Fed funds rate by fiat and not based on what banks want/need to cover their real risk when they make loans. Now all the chickens have come home to roost because the banks don't want to play this game anymore, when they have to compete with 0% loans from GMAC or below-cost mortgages from Countrywide, Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac.
Of course, I think this covers everything from Wedge's access to cheap credit, to even my access to a 'cheap' mortgage. This is quite the mathematical convergence, eh?! BEG, Fred, Dave, Baron: what do you guys think??? How on earth can we ever sustain this lofty goal of full employment **without** resorting to deficit spending by G8 Govts or artifically low interest rates for supply-side economics???
And FYI: our new Tres Secy is on CNBC right now and he just said "Governements and Central Banks around the world pursued policies that, with the benefit of hindsight, caused a huge global boom in credit, pushed housing prices and financial markets to levels that defied gravity."
Ya think???!
e.d.t.
edt ...
first of all , bear in mind that full-employment =inflation !
so basically talking the "cycles" are explained by "Kondratief's cycles theories"
in other terms :
when a Govt does a big poop (let's say for demonstration a War , far away ...)
this Govt has a few way to make the war popular ...
"it's for your good , you'll pay your gas 1$/gallon for the next 15 years "...
is one of them ...
when soldiers start to be killed (unfortunately ... in War ...peoples die ... not only the ones from the "bad" side ...)
so it become unpopular , democratic game being what it is ... polls are plunging ...
what is next move a Govt can do ?
spread a thick layers of cheap-credit ...peoples who were complaining before are going to be busy making money ...
some by buying real estate ...
some by playing with stocks ...
some by launching a twin-jet project at unprecedented price ...
as soon as reality strike back , it is a mess !!!
this is over-simplified ...;-) but i don't want to bore to death every reader ...!!
so if you correct the declaration of Treasury guy from :
Central bankS around the globe ...
by "WE , us and some friends WE did such a policy ..."
then you are closer to reality that anyone has been in the last few years ...
All,
We might have missed "Tuesday", but Friday the 13th is coming up!!
:)
edt,
Precisely! After the dot.com bubble burst, and then 9/11, the Fed wanted a "soft landing" for the US economy. To do this it lowered interest rates creating below equilibrium cheap credit. That in turn created the housing bubble. So the Fed, trying to soften what would have been a natural recession in 2002, created a huge one now. There are a number of things that are obscene about this: (1) The Fed, essentially part of the US gov't., is setting the price in an important market (credit), instead of allowing the market to do it. History suggests that whenever (always) a government sets a price instead of the market setting it that bad things happen. (2) By flooding the market with dollars through interest rate manipulation and so-called stimulus spending, the Fed and the US Gov't are creating inflation. Inflation reduces the value of the dollar, so while it may appear that the stimulus improves the economy based on selected statistics, the purchasing power of the nation has been reduced. Inflation, by definition, is caused by the amount of money in circulation. (3) The US Gov't lies to the people about the rate of inflation by manipulating the statistics. The politicians don't want bad things happening on their watch. So the pressure is on to minimize the appearance of inflation and its causes (printing money). The govt actually goes so far as to throw out red-herrings such as "deflation is a bigger threat", which is hog-wash.
So, all in all, the Fed has put itself into a fine pickle this time! Painted itself into a corner so to speak. All of that real-estate bubble led to the housing collapse (as all bubbles do), which led to the subprime crisis, which leads to banking crisis, which leads to bailouts, which are dealt with by more government intervention in the markets, which only makes the problem worse, not better. Only when the markets are allowed to "do their thing", will things get better. That's going to be quite some time from now. Meanwhile, we'll see the worst recession since the depression and probably massive inflation along the way. The US standard of living will decline substantially, as it must to restore equilibrium in international markets, and to wipe out the US trade deficit (another bubble that has to burst). Fun ride ahead!!
Ponder this: the price of oil relative to the price of gold has been fairly constant until the last few months. Watch for oil prices to go back up! Inflation at work.
The Blog needs to keep in mind what RP is actually doing: he is arranging (or attepmting to arrange)a repayment of his loan. I suspect ABQ is but a few weeks away from total shutdown (it was kept "open" until new capital could be closed, so as not to scare away financiers or unleash extensive litigation). Etirc is a shell that, after it directs any new capital into its own debt and expense payoff, will fold its tent and throw the entire EAC V.2 plan onto the "marketplace" (or a bank) where it will of course, fail.
This is one of the oldest "bridge loan" games in the books.
tbm :
perfect !
i give you a good 18/20 ! ;-)
not 20/20 , because theoretically speaking :
W.Wilson did set-up the Fed's has an institution which at that time , was NOT part of US Govt ...
its mission (fed's) was NOT to "manipulate" interest rate ...
but to defend the value of $ (mainly against AU , gold in other term)
result : Mission done $ has lost most of its value ...
the "manipulation" (especially the M3 , amount of $ in circulation at any one time) became a "normal" proceeding with the collapse of "Bretton Wood" agreement ... (Nixon , 1973)
done mainly because the Vietnam War couldn't be afforded by the US without squeezing a lot more the US population ....
you see ...
if you do not know your past = you are set to do the same mistake over and over ... ;-)
as for the statistics , anyone interested can Google this
"difference between U3 and U6"
it talks about unemployment and statistics ...
a rough ride !!!
It's 17.25 GMT, and still no word.
I'm traveling for a few hours, so can't update the blog.
Will check in when I arrive.
Shane
Deep Blue,
This is a shocking revelation... enough to shake our faith in fellow human beings.
I wonder what parts will run out first in the effort to "keep 'em flying".
eclipse_deep_throat:
Yes, studies have shown a correlation between the credit cycle and the business cycle. When money is cheap (low interest rates), people and businesses borrow for new projects and consumption. As the demand for money increases, interest rates (the cost of money) increase too.
Saying that cheap credit CAUSES recessions is a bit of stretch. However, some say that because the Fed is always reactive, it tends to magnify the business cycle, instead of smoothing it. These people call for the Fed to be abolished, return to gold standard, etc.
IMO Vern's success in getting Eclipse started was multi-dimensional. Not just a matter of cheap credit. He was a successful Micro$oft guy with good connections that bankers and investors respected. The technology was advanced to a point where a cheap VLJ seemed possible. Later, I imagine there was a momentum effect. With some money, respectable people, interest from buyers, came more of the same. You guys know the history better than I do!
Fred said,
so if you correct the declaration of Treasury guy from :
Central bankS around the globe
Ok, so I screwed up spelling the word government...LOL. But I had this on DVR and I played it back 10x to make sure I got the quote right. He definitely said "central bankS..."
TMBs_R_Us,
OMG! Give me some **good** news, please!! Everyone wasn't supposed to agree with me!! LOL...
;-)
As we speak, the Dow at at -293, not happy that Tres Secy didn't really have ANY meat to his plan!! We are all on the bloody Titanic but our boat doesn't have ANY lifeboats! :-(
e.d.t.
Fred,
Yes indeed, the Fed is NOT part of the US Gov't (even though people think it is. I didn't want to muddy the waters even further. But, check this, the US Constitution prohibits the government from printing money! It only allows it to mint coins. Hence, the Federal Reserve prints the money, side-stepping the small detail of legality.
The Federal Reserve is a private institution, owned by the banks.
Deep Blue: Scenario 1 is that ETIRC fails to close due to whatever problems with the financing, such as the would be investors reading this blog (HA HA), and Scenario 2 is what you describe as the "bridge to nowhere".
The Fed is also responsible for bank regulation. Their failure to adequately regulate banks led to the current crisis just as much, if no more so, than cheap credit. In fact, Greenspan, head of the Fed during the buildup of the credit bubble, was warned about excesses and subprime mortgage risks and did nothing to stop it.
EDT :
Lifeboats ??? lifeboats ???
when everyone can have a Fpj to darken the skies ???
and save his miserable life ???
you must be joking !! ;-))
TBM
now , it is 20/20 !
not long ago , i has an argument with a guy from N-Y about the NON-Govt status of the fed's ...
the guy did ask me "how do you know ?"
Answer : i read your constitution !
Jack ...
Greenspan were warned MANY , MANY times ...
the reason why his name has change into :
Allan Bubbles Greenspan !
It actually would have made for a more credible fairy tale if Eclipse V2.0 were to be a Chinese company. At least the Chinese economy is solid, even if it recedes a little as US imports decline in the recession.
RP may be cursed by bad timing. The decline in oil prices, which is a short term phenomenon, comes just as he's trying to cook this deal with the Russians, who are disproportionately dependent on the price of oil for their economic strength. Come back in 6 months RP, the ruble will be strong and we'll be swimming in oil rubles. Oooops, don't have 6 months.
ATM said... if the business case can be made by a newco, it can be also more easily (probably) be made by the establishment.
Not necessarily or even often so. The "establishment" puts up barriers against new products that can poach their existing sales, upset their "ways", and a variety of other aspects.
For example, Beech and TBM have staked their market on $3M turboprops as the best value for a 6 place biz av turbine. Try getting a $3M fan-jet project started at Beech or even a pressurized piston project. The answer is ALWAYS the same: "But, But, but it will, err, compete/kill the King Air 90". That is why Beech killed the P-Baron, the Duke, and every light fan-jet. They want to milk the King Air. Why? Simple. They are the ONLY ones selling a light twin turboprop.
Similarly, Cessna has killed talks of ALL turboprop projects. Why? They staked their market at the Citation fan-jet and invested mightily in ridiculing biz av turboprops (and King Air 90s in particular) in all their ads.
Cessna has no expertise in composites, so they could never ever compete with Cirrus and Columbia and Diamond in their single/piston line. They got their ass kicked losing a dominant market share. The 172/182/206 were not competitive. If Cessna tried to have a native, sexy single (i.e. low wing, composite, luxury interior, clean sheet aerodynamics to achieve 180KTS on 300HP), they would most likely fail miserably. It is not in their culture.
So Cirrus and Diamond are limping along, Columbia got CH7/acquired by Cessna, Piper/Mooney can'd do anything other than riveted aluminum, TBM and Beech will be pumping out turboprops in the foreseeable future, Cessna, Embraer, Honda, Piper, etc will all be building 8-10Klbs light jets at the low end.
It will be the start ups or young companies, Eclipse, Cirrus, Diamond, that will shoot for the 5K-6Klbs $1.5M real VLJ.
Eclipse missed the mark on the EA500, tried to retool to the EA400, ran out of $$$. Cirrus and Diamond are still in the run.
There is absolutely NO WAY that any established player can be more effective than Cirrus and Diamond pursuing a composite VLJ (sub 6,000 lbs). They just don't have it in them.
Now, I know you (ATM) will say that it is because there is no market. But IMHO that is not the reason.
Cessna reentered piston single in the late 90s after much market survey and decided that the market wanted span-can 120-150 KTS high-braced wings stodgy looking planes.
Cirrus, Diamond, Columbia proved that the "new" GA buyer wanted fixed-gear, sexy, 150-190KTS, composite planes with luxury auto interiors.
BOOM.
Same on VLJ. Just because Cessna and Piper and Beech haven't done, it does not mean there is no market. It just means those companies don't have the culture or competency to do it.
Boeing and Airbus could never produce a VLJ (even with all their resources) anymore than CIrrus and Diamond could produce a 777 or A380.
And other regulators failed also. Like SEC, the regulators of the Home Mortgage guarantors Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, even the FBI (it was recently revealed that they knew that mortgage brokers were pushing bad mortgages but their financial investigators were working on anti-terrorism).
EDT said .... So, there is this Austrian Biz Cycle Theory that claims recessions are CAUSED by cheap credit.
And there maybe some merit to that, but it does not mean it is "bad" or undesirable.
You need to add the tangible value of all the homes that were built, all the cars and GA planes that were built and bought, all the small businesses that were started with cheap credit in the past 15 years.
Then you'd have to conclude that ALL that value is not worth it us going through a 18 month down cycle.
I'd say that is a pretty touch proposition.
You just have to accept business cycles, with the dislocations and pain of the down cycles, to enjoy the much greater benefits of the up cycles.
Societies without credit starve.
It is just like everything else in live. You need to go to ballet and put up with some nagging every now and them to get great sex with a great woman. You need to pay some fines to have some fun driving a fast car. You need to lose a few deposits to get a fan-jet at a bargain basement price.
That is just life. There is NO WAY to remove all the "down" sides, without also killing the "up" sides.
Baron said,
You need to go to ballet and put up with some nagging every now and them to get great sex with a great woman.
Baron, That explains it!!! No wonder you're the way you are. The rest of us get great sex without putting up with any nagging and no ballet.
As a long time follower of this blog it has been interesting to view other peoples opinions of Eclipse. Now it is kind of fun to participate a little and express my views and opinions. As I said before this blog predicted pretty much what would happen with Eclipse, and that turned out to be fairly accurate. We all can disect the reasons this happened, but the bottom line is they failed because they had poor leadership, that didn't understand the market or the customers they were trying to build a product for. I can't completely blame Eclipse for not knowing the market due to the fact that the VLJ was a totally new concept in aviation and no one could know for sure what kind of a market existed for it. I do think that Eclipse was rather ambitious in it's estimate of what that market would be. My opinion is Vern thought he could use the same business tactics he learned at Microsoft and apply those to the aviation industry. This along with the fact that he rushed the product to market before it was complete was the major downfall of Eclipse. With him at the helm, the company had no other option but to fail. Yes I attribute the majority of the failure of eclipse to Vern himself. And based upon the number of problems I have had with the jet, with 250 of them out there, Eclipse simply could no longer afford to keep fixing them. I can only imagine the amount of cash Eclipse was hemoraging just trying to keep the fleet airworthy.
As far as the jet goes I would still rather own an eclipse vs a beech baron at the same price. For those of you who say the aircraft is a death trap I would be first in line to disagree with you. I have never once feared for my life or felt at danger while in an Eclipse 500. That is not to say I haven't had a lot of things go wrong, but to date, nothing has gone wrong that had the potential to be deadly. I have experienced more problems with this jet then any other aircraft I have ever owned or operated, but never has there been a time that I would not put my own family members on the jet and fly.
With that said, just two flights out of the service center, I am once again AOG. Looks like it is time to once again get out the check book. This is the part that gets old quick.
"They [Beech] are the ONLY ones selling a light twin turboprop."
Well, there is the Piaggio P 180 Avanti II. Its 398 knot cruise will blow the doors off many smaller turbofans, and all the King Airs. Plus, being a turboprop it has a "green" image for the companies lucky enough to have them.
TBMs_R_Us said...
Baron, That explains it!!! No wonder you're the way you are. The rest of us get great sex without putting up with any nagging and no ballet.
Ha, ha, ha!!! I was waiting for that. Notice that I said "YOU" have to ... Not "we", not "one", not "I", but "you".
But I do confess that I had to sit through a few Broadway musicals over the years with the ex-baroness. Still, the "up" cycles made me forget that "depression".
If there were more women on the blog, I was going to use the child birth metaphor - no pain, no gain.
"the VLJ was a totally new concept in aviation and no one could know for sure what kind of a market existed for it"
Why do people keep saying this? It is a small conventional airplane built around a cruise missile engine . So was the Learjet and other airplanes that used the civilian version of the GE J-85, which was developed for the "Hound Dog" cruise missile that was carried by the B-52.
Baron, to suggest Cessna, or Beech lack the ability to design clean sheet light GA aircraft is completely unsupportable fantasy.
To suggest the Eclipse is a clean aerodynamic design is to ignore the kluged flap fairings, nose panel, poor fitting doors, and the various trim wedges placed all over the plane to get it to fly straight.
The reason these companies are not investing in new technology designs is the business case has not been made - engineering competency has nothing to do with it. Why design a clean-sheet replacement when you have existing tooling and manufacturing experience for products that are selling?
As Eclipse's failure has amply demonstrated, the lack of JUST those two things leads to nothing positive. Add in the lack of experienced management, the lack of discipline, the lack of hubris, the lack of appreciating the challenges laid out in front of them.
After more than a decade, near $3 Beeeellion dollars, and untold heights of arrogance, Eclipse has gone bankrupt without ever delivering a single, complete aircraft, and leaves a Billion dollar smoking hole that will ultimately result in thousands of direct and indirect layoffs (most of the indirect layoffs having likely already occurred).
If Cessna wanted to build a 'disruptive' new aircraft with new aerodynamics and what is, for them, a revolutionary value-proposition, they would spend time and money in preliminary design, they would seek out, quietly, the opinion of current operators on their concept, they would evaluate the market and business case in great detail, they would identify any technologicial risks.
Then they would put their core engineering team to work on designing the new plane, they would announce it to the market with realistic plans for performance and production.
Then, as they nearly always do, they would capture the segment of the market they have targetted (typically a realistic number BTW, not an assumption of capturing 200-300% of the market everyone else agrees is out there), and they would then exceed the expectations of industry and their customers, all at a profit.
Oh wait, they already did that, with the Conquest, the Citation series, the Caravan, the Citation X, the CJ series, and more recently the Mustang.
They have done this every decade for the last 4 decades.
Travelling across town, to suggest Beechcraft lacks innovation or daring can only be said by deliberately ignoring several high-profile programs like the Paris-Jet importation, the turbojet version of the King Air, the Duke, the Starship, or the Premier and Horizon.
The Preliminary Design groups at Beech and Cessna are some of the brightest and most creative professionals in this industry and to suggest otherwise re: their culture or competency speaks of profound ignorance.
As for culture, which do you think is better - the culture that would lie, cheat and steal to collect HUNDREDS of progress payments for aircraft that were NEVER going to be delivered or the culture that takes a measured approach to product development and supports their product?
Have Cessna or Beech never made a mistake, no, far from it - but they have shown a clear ability to learn from their mistakes which simply cannot be said about EAC or EAC-NfG - RP is still suggesting Eclipski will be worth more than $1B and is playing up orders which do not, according to court documents, support his grandiose statements.
Face it, Eclipse is the aviation equivalent of Herman's Hermits Henry the 8th - 'Second verse, same as the first.'
Ken will like his plane until it goes hard AOG, then like all abused spouses he will just take it because he no longer believes he can do any better, besides, Wedge, and now RP, only hit him because they love him.
ea500 said .... As I said before this blog predicted pretty much what would happen with Eclipse, and that turned out to be fairly accurate.
No it has not. This blog has been consistently wrong. It has predicted since 2006 that Eclipse would be out of business in two weeks. That they'd never get the plane certified, never get a PC, then never get EASA, then never get FIKI, then that the RP and Vern and Peg would be hauled into criminal court and/or would have to explain their "criminal behavior" to the Ch11 judge.
It predicted, multiple times, that the FAA would shower the EA500 with "grounding" ADs, etc, etc, etc.
In fact, I can't think about any specific instance where this Blog has been spot on. Some members came close in predicting the number of planes produced in 07 - that was prob the closest.
And the worst part? Even when it is completely proven wrong, the Blog intelligentsia still insists on continue to repeat wrong facts, such as the fact that Eclipse burned through $3B, when the real number is half that.
But hey, if you choose to remember only the rare instances when the blog even came close, then more power to you.
airsafetyman said...
"They [Beech] are the ONLY ones selling a light twin turboprop."
Well, there is the Piaggio P 180 Avanti II
LIGHT!!!! As in BE90, if you can call that light at >10Klbs.
Well, the Beech 350 has a max ramp weight of 15,000 lbs, a max cruise of 312 knots, and a max altitude of 35,000 feet.
The Piaggio P.180 has a max ramp weight of 12,100 pounds, a 402 knot max cruise speed, and a max altitude of 41,000 feet.
And the smallest King Air in production, the C90GTi, has a maximum gross weight of 10,100 pounds.
B95:
you are truly a rabble rouser but I cannot keep letting this go by:
You keep saying 'the blog" said this or that. The blog is made up of 100 or so individuals, who make more or less accurate predictions. Some have an axe to grind, some are experienced aviation professionals, some are stupid.
You pick out a few predictions that were off the mark but the consensus of the blog has been eerily accurate, sort of a wisdom of the crowd working.
Please stop serving up this useless stuff.
Turboprop_pilot
Baron95, I wasn't even aware of the eclipse critic blog site until I got wind of the publicity that was being generated when Vern tried to take legal action against some of the posters. That peaked my interest to start reading on a regular basis. It became apparent to me that Vern was beginning to act irrationaly, and for the most part had lost touch with reality. That was when I knew for sure those were acts of a deperate man whose house of cards was about to fall. I think there are some on here that wanted Eclipse to fail, I never wanted Eclipse to fail, quite the contrary, but I sure couldn't dismiss the fact that all the evidence was indicating that Eclipse as we knew it would not be able to exist much longer. Does that help clarify for you ?
Baron, if money raised/borrowed exceeds ~$1.5B, sales totals ~$250M, and they have just bugged out on debts exceeding $1B, that ~$2.8B is much closer to the '$3B the blog intelligentsia' are using than your $1.5B.
Eclipse does not have a full EASA certification, it is the bilateral type with special conditions (almost 5 times as many special conditions as the Mustang BTW), and there are no EASA certified aircraft in customer hands.
There are no legal FIKI aircraft in customer hands.
Eclipse has earned 5 AD's that DID effectively ground the fleet until complied with (compared to none for the Mustang which has now been in steady, serial production for a longer period of time and which should be approaching parity on number delivered).
JetInComplete failed.
EAC is in-fact bankrupt and EAC-NfG has in-fact failed to make good on the purchase agreement to-date.
EAC failed to deliver even one fully fucntional aircraft meeting the sales spec.
The customers and vendors are in-fact getting a friction-stir-welded enema.
If there is any cherry-picking or revisionist history going on re: the accuracy or prescience of the blog, it is NOT coming from the critics.
"Some have an axe to grind, some are experienced aviation professionals, some are stupid."
Good afternoon to you, too - it's nice to be recognized every once in a while...
( Baron occasionally whips off a drive-by post. Mine are all drive-THRU posts. )
Pull around to the second window,
DI
Fred: I like what you said about responsibility in an earlier post. I think we here in USA have been burned by regulators, bankers, elected officials, etc. acting or not acting in a way that have caused such a big (global!) problem that many have become very cynical.
The Exchange rate that fell was Euro-Yen not Euro-Dollar.
Greenspan warned of "irrational exhuberance", trying to influence market participants with the force of his opinions and stature. He was also urged to change regulations which would have curtailed some of the worst practices but he refused to do that.
You say "one day we will agree..." but we do agree: the money for Eclipski could be put to better use.
Anyway, I am encouraged that the Russian government is acting somewhat responsibly so I have to give them the benefit of the doubt that they thought this through. My best guess is that RP gets the money and closes. Eclipski may be able to not lose too much money for a few years and IF they manage to produce something of decent quality and have a safe (enough?) track record, they will have an opportunity to expand at a later date.
I'm not cynical or optimistic about ABQ. I think Eclipski would prefer to have ABQ so they will TRY to keep it operating. This requires ORDERS, higher oil prices (allowing Russians to be more patient investors), new investors, or some combination. The best that could be said at this point is that ABQ probably has at least 30 days (as long as the deadline for coupon holders to enter orders) but would probably not last more than to the end of the year unless there is some positive change.
So bottom line no one knows what is going on with the company on this "Tuesday" as previously speculated by this blog.
"The rest of us get great sex without putting up with any nagging and no ballet."
Hell, for great sex , I'll DANCE a ballet!!!
EPx,
"So bottom line no one knows what is going on with the company on this "Tuesday" as previously speculated by this blog."
I think that is only partially correct: The bottom line- no one knows what is going on with this company.
:)
baron:
"Not necessarily or even often so."
there are some small examples of companines like Cirru makng a run at the ass-end of GA. I am not denigrating the flight schools or early pilots, for sure. Just, making and supporting an affordable $250k plane at a pofit is tough, given the regs and realitites.
A cheap jet - well, it s been on the drawing board of many OEMs, and IF EAC succeeded, it would only be for a shor while - catching up is easy for the OEMs IF they desire...
So, point stands - too much risk, not nearly enough reward for this venture...
casn point?
13 years
$3 plus billions... no profit.
Case closed.
While we are waiting for info . . .
Can someone explain the benefits of Friction Stir Welding in practice? Does it work? Does it make sense? How does it compare to composites?
My guess is that if done right (very carefully, and checked throughly) then maybe it: is more efficient and safer manufacturing and results in a better aerodymanics (less fuel use).
Jackrabbit,
Welcome- you're putting up a lot of good info- and putting up with a lot- two valuable traits!!
FSW has modest advantages for volume production, arguably, at thousands (versus 10's of thousands) of units per year.
For dozens and hundreds per year, the infrastructure development isn't worth the per unit cost savings.
It is probably a bit lighter than riveted construction, but on a plane the size of Eclipse, I'd guess this might be on the order of some 10s of pounds. Not negligible, but a lot of risk for such modest advantage.
It might have some minor advantages in terms of strength, and some modest disadvantages in terms of corrosion. And it would seem some major disadvantages in terms of repairability.
Presumably, the FAA has looked at it's fatigue characteristics, and is satisfied. I am unaware of the failure mode- (e.g., when it fails, does it "rip open" like a blown seam?)- maybe others can enlighten us on this.
The main advantage is labor savings in volume production (lots- LOTS- of parts).
Jackrabbit said...
Can someone explain the benefits of Friction Stir Welding in practice?
Choice A, ex-IAM union members that got laid off or trainees with 1 week training pulling rivets to mate 2 metal parts/surfaces.
Choice B, an automated (that dos not collect benefits) tool welding same parts/surfaces without introducing solder or any other dissimilar materials on the join.
You pick.
ATM said.... So, point stands - too much risk, not nearly enough reward for this venture...
On that, we are, again, in violent agreement.
Risk/Reward rankings:
1 - Drugs/Prostitution/Gambling
2 - Get elected or appointed to govmt post (e.g. Governor of NM or IL)
3 - Start a hedge fund and get charities and widows to invest in it.
500 - buy a French car to run a business
1,000 - Buy existing Biz Jet co with TC and fleet (e.g. Textron/Cessna, GD/Gulfstream, RP/Eclipse)
1,000,000 - start a GA manufacturer from scratch with tons of money
5,000,000 - start a GA manufacturer from scratch with just loads of money.
By the way.... if she is not wearing something like this, then it doesn't even come close to qualifying as "hot sex".
Snippet Time
1. There is a 'reason' for there not being any news.
2. VEB did not actually get the money today.
3. Which means Roel did not get the money. Today.
Oooops....
My 'informed' reaction is that this money was key, and the timing vital, to Roel finding a simple way forward. The longer the delay, the more complex the solution.
I wish Roel luck. He will need it, now....
Shane
EclipsePilotOMSIV,
So bottom line no one knows what is going on with the company on this "Tuesday" as previously speculated by this blog.
Roel is the one who circulated news of his invitation to Moscow to 'sign the deal' today, not me. He told Ken, and the rest of the (formerly) merry crew at E5C.
Kinda ironic it turned out HE was the one 'speculating', don't you think?
The pressure increases with each failed stunt like this. Remember, the company is still burning DIP cash. This is not good for the people actually trying to make ends meet.
At some point, in the not too distant future, a lot of money HAS to be made available, if only to pay the staff. My fingers are crossed for those waiting for news. The sad announcement of 300 more jobs lost from Piper Air can't have improved anyone's state of mind....
One final thought. Did it never strike you as odd that the blog ends up predicting, more accurately, the likely outcome of this saga?
The fact that 'we' seem to be doing better than the people who are supposed to be running the company should scare you to death!
Shane
Word has it Linear Air is down to:
One Caravan
One Eclipse
Five employees
And the LOW FUNDS annuciator is flashing. We haven't heard much lately about the skies being darkened by Eclipse air taxis. However the skies are being darkened by the ashes of dollars being incinerated in Washington.
Jackrabbit said...
"Can someone explain the benefits of Friction Stir Welding in practice?"
Choice A, ex-IAM union members that got laid off or trainees with 1 week training pulling rivets to mate 2 metal parts/surfaces.
Choice B, an automated (that dos not collect benefits) tool welding same parts/surfaces without introducing solder or any other dissimilar materials on the join.
You pick.
OR...
Choice A, Workers paid, mortgages paid, economy stimulated, schools financed, parks open, police patrolling neighborhoods.
Choice B, unemployed workers, with no medical insurance, foreclosed homes, closed stores, depressed economy, parks closed, schools in disrepair, crime up, police staffing down.
Choices are fun, right? And it's great to live for the moment in a consequence free world.
Or in a world with choices made to invest in your community, state, and country, and leave the world a better place than you found it, rather than depleting the investment made by previous generations, and leaving the next generation to pick up the wreckage.
You pick.
It's really very simple, isn't it?
Why care, if I can profit?
The ME generation, in all it's glorious self indulgence and collective delusional denial.
No offense, just sad disappointment.
Excellent article:
http://www.flyingmag.com/leftseat/1357/what-went-wrong-with-eclipse.html
Jackrabbit:
Here's my take on FSW:
A high volume "aluminum gluing" process with a continuous seam that is probably stronger than rivets and lower labor as far as the drilling/reaming/bucking/riveting goes. May have longer term corrosion problems from crevice corrosion.
The machine is big and very expensive (>$5 million) and the tooling is precision milled aluminum the size of the assembly to be FSWed, so is also very expensive and CANNOT BE EASILY MODIFIED.
If Wedge had built prototypes with traditional rivets and found that the engines were inadequate, then the wing could have been easily redesigned with longer span and more area, eliminating the need for tip tanks. Likewise for many other parts where the manufacturing engineering was completed way too early in the process. He spent a ton of money that was wasted over and over.
Letting a software developer anywhere near real physical parts always leads to problems and Wedge will be the textbook case in every engineering school. Which makes me think of a good use for all the soon to be AOG E500s. Every Canadian engineer is given, at graduation, a steel ring made from a collapsed bridge (due to an engineer's error) so they will have a reminder to damp down their hubris. All software engineers could be given an aluminum FSW ring for the same sort of reminder.
Turboprop_pilot
"Choice A, ex-IAM union members that got laid off or trainees with 1 week training pulling rivets to mate 2 metal parts/surfaces."
Good sheet metal workers do artwork, really. We used to have senior Piedmont Airlines sheet metal shop people do heavy repairs on our transport category turboprop when required. We never had to question the quality of their work. Their repair was better, much better, than the original. And the original was excellent to begin with.
Baron, why do have this disdain for people who work with their hands? If your daughter was having heart surgery, would you give the surgeon a dose of your smart sarcasm before she went in to the operating room?
baron,
Arrogance is no substitute for facts.
You claim:
"This blog has been consistently wrong. It has predicted since 2006 that Eclipse would be out of business in two weeks. That they'd never get the plane certified, never get a PC, then never get EASA, then never get FIKI, then that the RP and Vern and Peg would be hauled into criminal court and/or would have to explain their "criminal behavior" to the Ch11 judge."
Fact - Neither I nor did the general consensus of the blog take a position that EAC could not or would not achieve TC/PC/FIKI/EASA certification.
We did categorically state and were correct in saying Vern was underestimating the task but given enough time and money he could achieve his goals.
Vern eventually acknowledged that he did not understand the effort required for these tasks.
Like OJ, Vern, Peg and RP may escape criminal charges but civil courts likely await them and others for taking money from the owners-in-waiting knowing there was no possibility of delivering the airplanes within the promised time frame.
(I will confess to underestimating Vern's ability to raise money and the gullibility of investors and investment bankers who continued to fund this ruse.)
You claim:
"It(the blog)predicted, multiple times, that the FAA would shower the EA500 with "grounding" ADs, etc, etc, etc."
Fact - Every since this airplane entered service, pilots and owners have reported chronic problems. Why the FAA did not act on some of these issues is a big mystery.
Lastly, you state:
"And the worst part? Even when it is completely proven wrong, the Blog intelligentsia still insists on continue to repeat wrong facts, such as the fact that Eclipse burned through $3B, when the real number is half that."
Baron, on Nov 25, 2008 you posted the following comment:
"But hey, I would not have invested $1 in EAC (but apparently $2,000,000,000.00 other bucks found their way there)."
A "2" with nine zeros following it is two billion and the bankruptcy filing referred to liabilities in excess of a billion...looks like 3 billion to me which does not even include the non-recurring investments (tooling) that part suppliers will likely eat.
But we are blessed to know that only you bring truth to the blog.
Everyone: thanks for you thoughts about FSW. Seems like Eclipski is unlikely to make use of FSW.
Amazing turn of events. Is FP is waiting in Moscow for funds to become available?
Turboprop: Thanks for the analysis and insight. Wow.
Stan said,
“Every since this airplane entered service, pilots and owners have reported chronic problems.”
Just heard about another one: Eclipse static sources are located on top and collect water. Water has run down into one of these lines, frozen, expanded and caused it to burst… like plumbing in an unheated house. Now the mysterious part – a single line breaks open and takes out static pressure for all three air data computers. They are supposed to be independent but may have a common mode failure. Is the Eclipse world aware of this through a Service Difficulty Report?
Also heard the Eclipse maintenance manual is a ‘shambles’ with entirely missing sections. Maintenance questions to the ‘factory’ end up in engineering because of unresolved issues. High turnover rate is a problem and tribal knowledge is in short supply.
None of this verified but… caveat emptor.
Stan,
It's great to see you stop by again!
(Newer readers might not be aware that Stan started the blog and ran it for almost two years, before handing the reins to Shane's very capable hands).
I hope the downmarket isn't affecting your business- I would suppose you are working on "future model" stuff, and as such, are hopefully relatively unaffected by the downturn in current-model sales.
Thanks for starting the blog; it's a fun read, and is a real service to the aviation community!
Cheers!
airsafetyman said...
Baron, why do have this disdain for people who work with their hands?
What gives you that impression? I was asking the question about the benefits of FSW. And you may like it or not, but the truth is that it is a purely cold analysis between the costs and overhead to have ex-IAMs and/or trainees pulling rivets vs investing on a machine and rig to do it automatically.
I'd make that decision purely on the merits and cost/benefit analysis of the situation.
My feelings for or against workers would be left out of it.
On a personal note, I have incredible respect an admiration for true craftsman that can assemble and blueprint an AMG engine or a TCM Platinum edition engine on their own.
But I also know that GM paying UAW workers lifetime pension and health care benefits to assemble a Saturn engine by hand is a recipe for disaster. I'd rather GM had sane contractual/planning practices so they didn't have to kill Saturn will all the dealers, suppliers, employees and consumer suffering.
Appreciation for craftsmen is no substitute for sound decisions vis-a-vis a competitive market place.
And as for my daughter and a medical condition, I'd put my trust on a cardio ultrasound, radio-contrast SCAN etc to arrive at a correct diagnostic vs an old-time cardiologist trying to diagnose it with a stethoscope and paper EKG. Why not use the automated technology that enhances the outcome?
Humans pulling rivets in aviation is just as efficient as human doing automotive spot welds 25 years ago.
Cars moved to hydroforming, automated welding with laser measuring. Planes are going to composite automated tape laying machines, bonding and FSW. Why resist progress? Don't you enjoy driving a car with tight fitting panels, that does not flex on turns and bumps and lets you walk away from a 50 MPH head-on collision? Sure it is fun to have a somewhat hand built Ferrari and AMF engine. But we don't want all cars to cost $200K, do we?
"...why do have this disdain for people who work with their hands? If your daughter was having heart surgery, would you give the surgeon a dose of your smart sarcasm before she went in to the operating room?"
I don't think Baron is disdainful of those who work with their hands, he just wants the lowest labor cost possible, and resents the unions "artificially" inflating labor costs.
I understand that argument, but think it is wrong.
Instead, I would argue offshoring and cheap import labor artificially "deflates" labor costs.
---------------------------------
To illustrate my position, borrowing ASM's comments on going in for surgery...
Consider: medical doctors are in short supply, because we don't have enough medical schools.
So, we import doctors. Is this cheap labor? How can it be, if the foreign doctor gets paid as much as the local doctors? I mean, if they both make $xxx per year, that's not cheap labor cost- it's the same labor cost, right?
WRONG. It's cheap labor, because society has not paid the cost of training the foreign doctor. (Yes, they do go through supervised transition here). India, Pakistan, Russia, Israel did. That doctor costs (American) society less. Domestic doctors don't complain, because, after all, it hasn't lowered THEIR salaries. And American society isn't complaining, because we don't have to pay the training cost for those foreign doctors. Patients don't care, because they have access to a greater number of doctors. So everyone in America wins.
What's wrong with this picture? The benefit to the next generation. Twenty, thirty, forty percent of young American wantabe medical students are kept from enrolling, because we have de facto reserved that percentage for foreign doctors. Foreign countries are training more doctors, to make up for losing a percentage to America- this increases their costs, but the benefit is- it increases funding for the medical training programs, and medical research programs, siphoning off research dollars from US companies. The long term effect, shift of medical industry jobs (MD, nursing, pharmaceutical, etc). And of those American non-doctors? The move down the food chain, forcing others down the food chain- wages are suppressed, tax revenues go down, quality of American life goes down.
But oh, lets just go to Mexico, etc, for treatment? After all, it's cheaper labor costs, right? Capital goes out of the country- medical industry in foreign countries flourish, clinics in the US close- nurses and technicians go underemployed, forces labor costs lower, tax revenues lower, quality of life lower.
---------------------------------
Any counter examples to this, are buoyed by the aging baby boomer health care bubble. And I think as we've well seen, bubbles are unsustainable.
EPX probably has some thoughts about this, dare I ask? (Well, yes, I suppose I do .)
And by the way, my personal experience with foreign-born doctors has been outstanding, and I do in fact go out of my way to use the ones I am familiar with- not in preference to any American-born doctor, but simply, because I am familiar with them, and they are good. (An Indian, a Pakistani, and a Syrian).
And I'm not against developing nations, developing. I just don't want to see American jobs shipped abroad, to impoverished country X. Similarly, I don't want to see improverished country X's jobs shipped abroad to even-more-impoverished country Y. I DO want country X and Y to develop, but believe that can be better done withoug destroying the American tax base, and subsequently, destroying American public institutions.
Baron, I agree with you on some things, and disagree with you on some things. I have yet to see any persuasive argument that supports your labor propositions though. But I admire you for being sincere, even if I think you are wrong, and admire you for not wavering in the presence of dissent.
Baron,
I was working on my post, asserting that indeed you do not have animosity towards labor as individuals.
One thing we do agree on- the burden to companies due to retiree benefits (pensions are okay in my book, but health care costs should be funded by the federal government, through higher payroll taxes. And I don't see why companies have to pay SS, but FICA is okay with me.
The only way workers can afford to pay higher taxes, is if labor costs go UP, not down.
I would argue that higher labor costs can be offset with public R&D that will lead to higher worker productivity, enough to more than offset the cost of higher per-hour wages.
Where this FAILS TO WORK, is when the tools and technology developed with public R&D funding, are shipped to Mexico or elsewhere, instead of being, literally, employed in the USA.
(This is not a USA-centric proposition, I would expect every developed nation to have the same common sense).
Like I said,
Simple choices.
Unemployment, depressed wages, underfunded public services...
Dangers of No Middle Class
Brer Rabbit (aka “Jack”)
There are serious ongoing studies of the effect of FSW on high-strength aluminum alloys, in regard to what is known as intergranular corrosion, attack, and stress cracking in the transition zones along the two edges of the “weld”.
Without going into detail (you may do that on your own), the grain structure is altered in the high temp friction stir welding process . . . which reaches approx. 930 degrees F (about 80% of the melting temperature of aluminum). In what is known as the heat affected zone (HAZ), the crystal size of the aluminum, after the FSW process, is greatly enlarged, compared to the crystal size of the un-welded aluminum. The grain size and changes fall into at least three distinct areas . . . the center of the weld, the two sides of the weld, and the base metal being joined. After the process, these three areas have distinctly different mechanical properties.
The problems are real . . . the questions in any given application are “how serious” a problem, and how to minimize the effects, during and after the process.
There are others that may have a better grip on the terminology, etc., but these thoughts will provide some direction. A “Google search” using terms like 70xx alloys, FSW, intergranular corrosion, etc., should provide you with more studies and “papers”, than a person can rightly absorb in many hours. It seems that the number of “hits” on the subject has increased by a couple magnitudes in the past two years.
gadfly
(Intergranular corrosion has been of major concern to aircraft designers, builders and maintenance crews ever since the first true high-strength alloys were developed . . . and may be considered a form of aircraft cancer.)
Billy ...
you're wise man !
what you described in your post about local doctors and "imported" doctors is very true ...
I see that as a (very?)short term easiness ...
at the best to enable health system of somewhere to adapt itself to a new situation ...
NEVER as a long term thing ...
in the long term , it's doomed to fail !
what about a country relying on others to send "foods" , "products" , "specialists" and "doctors" ...?
very uncomfortable situation as everyone should know that as soon as you don't control anymore the way things happen , then anything may (and will) happen !
it is working for doctors as much as ANY others "things" ( no better word here , even if i feel like puking for using "things" for peoples ...)
if you rely on others , because they(abroad) have the burden of tuition , but you have the gain ...
you better become more and more attractive to keep the process alive ...
keeping or attracting new ones ...
in this process of "eternal easiness" your own population will want to have better and better (human nature effect : most when they have 1 , they start to want 2 ... )
so you will have to remain attractive for getting new ones , and you will have to be even better , all the time surpassing yourself, to please your citizens by attracting not only new ones BUT the best ones ...
until the places who give sweat and blood to train those "best ones" are going to find out that if you want to get their "genius" you should take the tuition-burden with ...
and the collateral-problems (family and "close-ones") to that trained person ...
because by doing so you are sure to keep developing countries ALWAYS in a state of "near-slavery" ...
once "new-ones" don't come anymore , if you try to renew training of your local students : how many are going to tell you "why should i spend 10 or 13 years studying to eventually make a good earning , when i can spend a 1/3 of it , go to Wall-Street , make 5 or 6 times more and be retired by 40 ?"
to end-up with this problem : for each Doctor you get , how many "crazy-lunatics" you will inherit because them , they couldn't keep their doctors ?
Development is really a VERY tricky thing to do and to understand ...
Gadfly: Thanks for the info. I read on wikipedia that the technology was only discovered in 1992. Less than 10 years later, adopted by Eclipse?!?! If intergranular corrosion weakens the weld over time does that present danger of catastrophic failure at some point (vs competing technologies)? Also interesting that FSW might be included as IP that is being licensed by VEB (for advance royalty payment),
Fred: looks like you were right to be skeptical!
There must be some basis for FP expecting a closing on Feb 10, right? Maybe its just a delay but with Russia hurting (as much or more as any country) and preparing for the worst (as urged by Anatoly Chubais, one of their most influential economists who helped Russia in the 1998 crisis) maybe the Russians have simply chosen not to proceed.
On Jan 22, Putin asked the Finance Ministry to recalculate the 2009 budget to reflect the Economy Ministry's new forecasting (oil to trade at an average $41, not $95!!!, and for the economy to contract 0.2 percent.) Also, by Jan 29, VEB had recieved $90b of loan requests for a $50b emergency corporate loan facility!!!
Also note: the 100b rubles for VEB authorized on Feb 5 has been allocated to: Gazprombank (15b), construction for the 2014 Winter Olympics (55b, max), and "small and medium sized business" (30b, min.)
In dollar terms, of the $837m (minimum) earmarked for "small and medium sized businesses, Eclipski would get $205m, or almost 25% !?!?!?
Baron ...
following your post with those shoes meaning "real hot sex" for you ...
i wonder what is the shape of a certain part of your anatomy ...? ;-)
may be you got confused in the french-way of stating (colloquial) getting an orgasm
which is :
"Prendre son pied " (literally : "take your foot")
ps: ok , it's only joke , don't take anything personal in anything written on this Blog being so wrong , so often ... ! ;-)
Jack ...
yes , i am very skeptical on many things ...
(don't worry ! when i am shaving ...i don't call Police to ask them who is the guy in the mirror ! ;-) )
may be because i have seen already more than my share of "poop" in the world ...
so i found-out that it is always better to "feel surprised" than to be deceived ...!
Btw : Rp going to Moscow to get a check ... from a bank making a loan ...
(which my distorted-mind means this :"Lenders actually PAY borrower to make a loan?")
quite strange ... especially in a country where "Check" concept does NOT exist ...!
(in the Russian mind : checks are pieces of paper were you can write down any fantasy AND do not forget that Russia is one of the countries where Cash is real ruler )
off-course , it can be a simple "misuse" of a term more common to most of us ...
but it doesn't add to clarity ... ;-)
Ok ; Baron ...
after the "light" joke ...
i think you're a "little"over the top in stating that the Blog is mostly Wrong ...
I Confess very humbly that i was mislead on EASA cert. !
I (me , not the Blog) don't think that i will beg ever enough for pardon lowering myself enough to express the way i feel about it ...
BUT
for your knowledge , feel assured that i had a not very middle argument with one of the misleader ...
after listening to my rant , he gave me a broad smile and added :
"yes , they got Partial ! but DO they use it or CAN they use it ? answer is in the question !"
Blog is about sharing infos and confronting different point of view , not about being perfect , not about being an "investment tool" ...
so please allow others to have others beliefs ...!
Snippet 'Correction'
Ken has objected to my implying he was the source for recent information.
I'm happy to confirm that he was not.
He has a perfect record of never telling me anything useful, which is remarkable given the amount of time he spends on the blog!
Shane
PS Still no 'Russian' money....
PPS Another interesting 'Snippet' in the works.
Gad,
I'm going to leak a little about myself here finally:
I've spent 30 years in the marine, aerospace and construction industry running my own welding and fabricating business. Heat affected zones are one of the main reasons that MOST parts of the airframe components are NOT welded but riveted. The biggest reason: fatigue cracking on edge of the heat affected zone. I have seen extensive use of aluminum resistance spot welding on non structural sheet metal and electron beam welding on machined aluminum parts. The alloys that are highly resistant to fatigue are NOT readily weldable but reach their maximum durability through mechanical fastening or bonding. This is not to say that manual or automated welded airframes would be unsafe or dangerous, jus' time/life limited. Which brings me back to FSW. I surmise these issues will be cropping up in airframes as time progresses. AND as stated in early B.S. from E.A.C. the aircraft can be repaired the old fashion way of patching and riveting.....An EA500 with bunches of little external skin patches, that'll be cute.
Stan:
You may have been even more right on the 787 problems. Have you considered pitching in on the banking crisis?
Turboprop_pilot
"Planes are going to composite automated tape laying machines, bonding and FSW."
Hmmm.
Yes
Cessna Columbus- Bonded aluminum, built by Spirit Aerosystems, with IAM members.
AIN May 20, 2008, Columbus
And, No.
"The Learjet 85 will be built in a similar fashion, with a low-temperature vacuum-bagged oven-cure process. Assembly technicians place resin-impregnated composite fabric by hand into molds..."
"Bombardier hired David Coleal as vice president and general manager of the Learjet product line, tapping into his experience as president and COO of Cirrus Design. Coleal helped Cirrus ramp up production of the all-composite Cirrus single-engine piston line to remarkable levels for a hand-laid-up, carbon-fiber airplane".
"Bombardier Aerospace late last week announced that it will manufacture the all-composite structure for the new Learjet 85 at its facility in Querétaro, Mexico..."
AIN Oct 6, 2008: Learjet 85
AIN, Lear 85 Work Goes to Mexico
AOPA Oct 10, 2008, Learjet 85
Does the EA 500 currently have an airframe life limit?
It has been implied here that life cycle fatique testing has not been performed. I am not a structures cert guy, so I do not know what MOC for 23.571 and 23.573 are being applied and considered acceptable.
As they have a TC, I would expect a basic level of fatique testing to have been completed, with an agreed on-going program to keep the iron eagle ahead of the fleet leader.
Anyone able to supply any detail on how this looked at Ecorpse?
Shane wrote, "Ken has objected to my implying he was the source for recent information."
Actually, my objection was to you lying; there was no "implying" involved. But thanks for fixing it!
Ken
Shane, Ken,
Boys boys!!
.)
FJT,
Surfing the web brings up "preliminary 10000 hours fatigue life based on static test results", but those are from the Eclipse press releases- a paragraph comes up in search, but won't open.
(Also on the blog, the "Wack-a-Mole" thread- one of my favorites!)
There was talk on the blog a year or so ago, regarding fatigue testing on an airframe, but I don't know if it was every substantiated or was an urban legend.
Kenny,
With what statement did Shane lie?
Be breathtakingly specific, and present empirical evidence for your assessment that it's a lie. In the absence of such, I'll just return to viewing you as a reckless blowhard.
Try the hummus - it's yummy!
DI
Billy ...
while i don't know the answer to "fatigue test" and "life time" for FSW ...
but it is probably like yogurt ...
"Not to be consumed after : date under the lid !"
Dave I.
if you know "Hummus" (and falafel?)
you are definitely a strange guy ! ;-)
especially if you mention the fact that Anyone has been lying in EAC/EAI saga ....!
like it could be true ...!!!
Going back to an earlier discussion...
(1) AIP provides $75m "financing" to ETRIC. As suggested by Fred, although a Spanish entity, one would have to imagine that AIP has some Russian ownership (majority?)
(2) VEB provides LOAN FACILITY to ETRIC of $205m.
** $125m TO BE PAID TO PATENT HOLDER(S) **
Leaving $80m available to ETRIC
(3) ETRIC makes $150m "EQUITY FINANCING" available to EclipseJet ($75m from AIP + $75m VEB)
(4) EclipseJet buys Eclipse Aviation for $28m + $160m in notes. $150m - $28m - $22m for operations = $100m. Notes are backed by $100m + assets of EclipseJet.
There is $5m from VEB leftover (for ETRIC).
Who own the rights to the patents? (Who gets the $125m upfront payment?) I understand that FSW patents are owned by The Welding Institute in the UK (where the inventor works). Is the $125m for the patents or a LICENSE to use the patents?
If FSW is not economical for small-scale production, why pay for the FSW patent now? Are there patents other than FSW that Eclipse Aviation doesn't own?
Note: Does it make sense that all of the $205 from VEB is for financing the purchase? It makes more sense that VEB money that is not allocated to patents is to be used for building a factory in Russia, I think. But that means that ETRIC has to find $75m elsewhere. Since there is no mention of any other party, does ETRIC have $75m??? Does ETRIC own one or more patents? Or has the patent holder (whoever they may be) been convinced to contribute $75m of the $125m to ETRIC? (because otherwise they get nothing)... For that matter, could the AIP be owned by the patent holder(s)?
"xxxxxx has objected to my implying he was the source for recent information. I'm happy to confirm that he was not. He has a perfect record of never telling me anything useful, which is remarkable given the amount of time he spends on the blog!"
Shane, that really IS one of the great "zingers" of the blog, funny enough it stands alone and above "any associations with persons, living or dead no animals were harmed, ..."
---------------------------------
Here's a good PhD thesis on FSW fatigue,
FSW Fatigue Thesis, Mats Ericsson, 2005
(click on full text, but be prepared to wait- it's 22MB).
Hi Fred,
Your warning about observing expiration dates is quite correct-
I think Eclipse would have fared much better if Wedge had been pulled off the shelf in 2004!!
(Things got a little smelly and rotten after that...)
well , jack ...
as for the loan being for building a factory (on a soil where you have jurisdiction)
would you prefer to build the factory for a firm to use it ?
(and them having to repay or at least pay some kind of revenue)
or
give a lot of money to a firm , for a patent which does NOT belong to them , firm to be found in the form of a postal-box , in the capital city of a country known for opacity ...
wishing well that they would actually BUILD the factory for what you give so much ???
don't you think that one option is better than the other one ?
so if you found out which on is the best :
then you can ask yourself (still if you were the bank) FOR WHAT do you need RP ???
to have more risks ?
to get something that you just had to bid 1$ more , to get 100% sure 100% for you ???
to spend 205M$ on something to be bought for 28M$ + 1$ ? ( the notes are "fluffy stuff" , nothing real !!)
would you do it ?
_______________________________
"Aip" is a spanish corp.
don't know if any Russian is/are behind ...
but one could/would consider that in the last few months , in Spain , a lot of criminal case where Russians behind spanish firms ...
off-course , i am not saying IT IS the CASE , just making a paralleled ...
like the Spanish firm , a few months ago ... supposed to be a major buyer of EA500 , but didn't have anything else than an answering-machine sending to a public-relation other firm ....!!!
fluffy stuff i tell you ...! ;-)
B.E.G.,
Link is broken, can you fix please?
Speculating about the deal structure is quickly becoming moot. Still ...
The $125m payment to patent holders was contemplated back in Summer 2008. Since there are two payments mentioned ($85m and $40m), maybe the "patent holder(s)" were expected to be TWI and EAI (for FSW & Phost?).
Shane's information is that VEB money is only going to be used for a Russian factory (and that makes sense in these economic times - but it seems to be contrary to what was posted on the blog (and presumably what the court has been told): that VEB will supply ETRIC with a $205m facility - no restrictions mentinned). But it seems that purchase of patents/patent rights may be necessary/desirable for Russian production -- and prehaps key to the purchase of EAI.
Anyway, if the those rights are bought at $125m (summer 2008 valuations!) and assuming all of that is used to purchase EAI (in some way) then ETRIC is still $25m short of its $150m EclipseJet "equity financing" commitment. Since there are no other companies mentioned (as far as I know), the extra $25m must come from investors in ETRIC or AIP who are not patent holders.
Since Fred and Z9 have both talked about the importance of Russian involvement in any Russian business venture (and this makes perfect sense), it would make sense that the all or part (probably all, I would think) of the $25m is contributed by Russian partners.
Fred, I agree with your points. Lots of fluff.
Anyway, for the contemplated purchase to close, it seems clear that VEB must provide financing AND a purchase of patent rights or other value must be made. RP seems to be relying on such a purchase at a very high (summer 2008) valuation - prior to Eclipse bankruptcy and global recession.
It also seems clear that the Russian economy is hurting (as are all economies), with >$90b of requests for only $50b of Russian govt/VEB emergency aid. It seems unlikely that any business person would want to invest in a project like Eclipski at this time.
Still, it appears that VEB was interested back in September 2008, and why would RP say he was invited to Moscow without SOME reasonable expectation of getting funded?
Hi Flyboymark,
Well, no.
Sorry. I tried everything, and I can't get the link to work either.
It goes to a European university web site, some weird server firewall or some such, I suppose.
But, if you use this text string in google search
friction stir weld, fatigue, mats ericsson
then you get:
Theses from KTH: 160 - Fatigue Strength of Friction Stir Welded Joints In Aluminum/a>
It is 7:30 pm in Moscow and they are serving after dinner drinks ...
... hope that one of his buddies picks up that tab, because reportedly Roel still has no cash in his pocket.
no , jack ...
what i pointed out or tried at least ...
if you look at incoherences (this where to be skeptical helps) you have to add bits and pieces together ...
if you do so , you soon find out that all versions of the same story are not really fitting one an other ...
in one version , Rp is supposed to run the plant ...
but with Russian staff (in what language?)
for russian interests (otherwise what is the point of VEB of taking shares into the plot ?)
with the supervision of Ulyanovsk Governor (the one who called Putin on the phone " Vlad we need to talk ! " ;-) )
with Russian money (the one expected now )
to buy the firm he is supposed to bring with him as an "object of exploitation " ??
with the money , they lend him
there is so much russian interests in this , that i wonder WHY the russians STILL need RP for ?
for his "fabulous " order-book ?
for his internationally recognized master-knowledge and experience of Aviation ?
for his master-degree at conducting business (all previous failed !)
you see , so many things not fitting , that makes the whole project kind of curious , no ?
(i didn't say IT CAN'T , just strangely done ...)
Snippet Time
1. A US Department of the Treasury entity, the 'Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States', CFIUS, is rumored to be investigating the ETIRC acquisition of the Eclipse assets.
2. CFIUS's responsibility is to ensure no acquisition or control of US assets by a foreign entity will harm US national secuurity.
3. . CIFUS is concerned, among other things, that the knowledge gained by Russia in how the US manufactures airplanes (including friction stir welding,tooling design, information technology in used in aircraft manufacturing, etc.) will help Russian military aircraft manufacturing processes.
Do me a favor. Don't tell the Russian's I told you this, ok?
Shane
PS I'm now retreating to my nuclear bunker, and bolting the door behind me, just in case....
Feb 09-
Goat: I think there will indeed be ROI. But I'm not sure it will be coming from ABQ.
Monsieur Shane ...
it is strange to me that a court can sell some US assets to some foreigners but has concern about a foreign country ???
does it need to be a Nobel prize to understand that the first one CAN (or may) sell to the second AFTER the Security-check ....
or is that a "rumor" right at the needed time , to show WHY RP is so important ...?
too many conjectures for my modest brain capacity ... ;-)
as for your Nuke-bunker , do not worry , i gave them your precise GPS coordinates (thanks the USA for GPS ;-) ) ...
but since Russian-Nukes aren't that precise ...
i am running myself to the shelter ! ;-))
Lads, time to back off poor(er) Ken.
He really is very annoyed with me. In fact, he's so mad at me he called this the 'haters' blog'.
I can almost see the froth at the edges of his mouth as he spews out his frustrations at the keyboard.
So, let him calm down for a while. The medication (I personally recommend Guinness for it's iron content) make take some time to have the necessary effect, but I'm sure he'll be back.
Ooops, there I go, 'lying' again. Ken is not taking any medication. Ken has NEVER taken any medication. In fact, I'm quite certain that Ken is right, and ALL of us here need medication to correct our manifest psychosis.
You know, the one where 'we' all lie about Eclipse, all the time....
Lie is a strong word Ken. Be careful how you use it.
Shane
Fred: You're right, a lot doesn't add up. All of which supports Shane's post immediately following yours: that the Russians are interested in more than just running a GA aircraft company. In that scenario, maybe RP has been valuable as a middleman/cover.
Another possibility is that RP has developed business relationships and does have some valuable experience and knowledge. As long as RP (and his team) doesn't demand too much in compensation (like a big equity stake), why kick him out? Plus, we don't have a full picture. May be the Russians have an option to buy him out in the future. In that case is value (for the time being) is in providing a smooth transition into Russian hands.
jack ...
yes , RP could be a middleman ...
but you know i work with Russians quite often , and have the pretentious idea that i know "a bit" their way(s) ...
one of the thing that most russians have in common : to be F---Beep,censored--- Gly pragmatic ...
so why would they pay so much money for something that can be bought for much less ...
why with RP ? knowing his past at the wheel of EAC , undoubtedly brings projectors on him ...
techs ? = why bother so much ? they could have bought a EA500 and with the help of their chinese-friends , just copy it as they do in china ...
(Kenny you still have a chance to get rid of yours ...;-) )
FSW : so much money for something so Unexperienced ??? in 10,20 years , why not ...
now , it is a bet , don't spend more than a handful of cash on it !
design ? = go to a good P2P site , i bet you'll find a CATIA working ready for download , free of charge ...!
why bother ? why do they need him ?
Interesting that this "rumor" comes after 2 failures to close/get funding. I guess only time will tell if it is a rumor or a play for more time.
A US investigation does make SOME sense, though. Eclipse has been a tech leader. And weren't the original Williams engines derived from engines used for cruise missiles (yeah, I know that Eclipse didn't manufacture those and ditched them for lack of performance - the military connection is still intriguing in light of the "rumor")? Along those lines, our conversation regarding FSW suggests that it may be a technique that is better suited to cruise missiles than GA.
Jack :
may i suggest that the only High-techs where EAC has been really at the top is :
Public Relation !
and as your question about cruise-missile n the difference is :
with a private-jet , you are supposed to come back !! ;-)
Fred: Public Relations - LOL! So you see the "rumor" as a ruse?
Jackrabbit,
Another possibility is that RP has developed business relationships...
I suspect you may be getting close. A little bird tells me that Roel is 'cultivating' contacts with control over certain natural resources in the hinterland of the Russian Federation.
Said 'little bird' ventured to suggest that Eclipski was a 'loss leader' to get Roel into this magic circle.
However...
Ken says I'm a liar, so don't believe a word I say.
Shane
jack ...
since how long do you follow this saga (drama-comedy or comedy-drama?)?
i can quite easily imagine myself , in say 45/55 years ...
when younger kids of only 60 Y.O. will ask me : " do you remember Eclipse ... old man ?"
i will probably answer : "OOOOOOhhh , so many stunts , kinda entertaining ...! we knew how to have fun , then ....!"
is it a ruse ? no !
may be only a way to keep the depositors "under-steam-pressure" (with their nice "franklin" boiling to be injected ) and explain a new delay ...
only my 0.5 cent worth (inflation , you know... ;-) )
I doubt that the existence of an investigation by an agency of the Treasury department is, itself, a secret. Depositors, Senior Debt Holders, the bankruptcy court, etc. should be able to find out if this rumor is true very quickly.
Fred: I've only been following this "saga" for a few weeks. I found it quite by accident as I was doing some research into aviation (I'm not an aviation person myself). Eclipse is just an incredible story.
Fred: I think its worth mentioning that, while the story is interesting, the integrity, intelligence, courage, humor, and general humanity of the people that post on the blog is also amazing. I've also learned a lot of interesting things about GA, manufacturing, and more.
On the CFIUS probe:
CFIUS is only concerned with national security. There are a couple of areas they cover that represent potential concerns:
1. The potential effects of the transaction on the sales of military goods, equipment, or technology to countries that present concerns related to terrorism; missile proliferation; chemical, biological, or nuclear weapons proliferation; or regional military threats.
2. Whether the transaction could result in the control of a U.S. business by a foreign government or an entity controlled by or acting on behalf of a foreign government. This would appear to be the case vis a vis ETARUS and the Russian plant, especially with the patents involved, given that it was made pretty clear that the Russians would control the plant.
CFIUS has the power to impose conditions on the transaction, or to recommend to the president to stop the transaction, if it finds such concerns to be real. FSW for cruise missile applications would appear to fit, as would the broader issue of modern aircraft design and manufacturing capability. What's ironic about this is that bloggers have sort of said that the Eclipse technology isn't so great, but yet it may be great enough to be an issue in the hands of the Russians.
B.E.G.
'bout what I figgered‘...the paper says the same ..fatigue is similar to TIG weldments in the HAZ. The entire process of FSW claimed by Wedge is speed and saving of labor, no other advantage. FSW WILL have a shorter part life somewhere on the airframe than ole' buck rivets. Of course with the astronomical price of this "cheap" jet, I don't presently see any advantage other than a marketing buzz word with a humongous investment in fixturing and equipment.
The additional following thought is if EAC was aging/normalizing retreating the HAZ zones?
Stan, if your still here, what's your thoughts on this?
Jack :
pay credits were it is due !
this whole thing wouldn't be possible without :
Monsieur Shane , please him with a pint of Guinness , if you happen to be around ...
and before that , Monsieur Stan ; a guy who could tell a lot about business , ethics and one "competitor" ...
not to forget Monsieur Gunner , a great guy , bit grumpy sometimes , but the one who dare to put his wallet in the line of sight for the value he respect ...
I guess the simple answer is if FSW is so wonderful, why aren't all the other mfgs jumping on board and touting it?
Another consideration: No matter what the real danger to national security may be, to the extent that there is a lack of clarity, any investigative agency will have a problem approving the transaction. CFIUS's investigation may be routine, but can/will RP provide the clarity that they need?
Any EAC employee out there that works at EAC in the stir fry department? Do they retreat HAZ to bring up temper so strength to the base metal is returned so that joint equals rivet joint or better?
I think that FSW is a non-issue from a ITAR perspective.
There are SAE and other international standards, and NASA now uses it for the Shuttle External Tank.
In fact, the value of any EAC patent has to be minimal given that while they applied an emerging technology, they did own or control FSW writ large, and did nothing to manage the exploitation of the technology.
RP should worry that the Russian might be thinking they've been swindled.
Pants on Fire !
Shane,
All this talk about lies has me wondering if we need to reprise the Facts vs True Facts debate from a few months ago.
At a minimum, I have heard that there are lies, true lies, and damn lies.
Webster defines a lie as "to make an untrue statement with intent to deceive"
I believe that you have better things to do than intend to deceive anyone about Ken.
Other consideration related to a US Govt review:
There is some question about what US-Russian relations will be like in the future. Its been reported that Russia was behind Kazakstan's closing of a US base that is important in to the US/NATO Afgan war effort (Russia offered to allow non-military supplies to traverse its territory but clearly the US wanted to keep the base operating). I've also seen a report that Russia intends to start the Iran nuclear reactor by the end of the year. And, of course, there is Georgia and the US-Russian spat over interceptor missiles based in Eastern Europe.
So, the US may not be inclined to be accommodative of Russian interests at this time even if there is no super-important national security issues. This is not to imply that they would purposely derail the deal, but they may want to do a complete (and time consuming) review. The effect of any lengthy delay (even the possibility of such) on an already shaky deal can't be good.
I believe there has already been ITAR clearnce for the PW610F to go to Russia. Surprising to me, but heck...
I sincerely doubt anything on the ea50 is of national security, especially since they didn't restrict the engine - probably the biggest threat. I think all Turbine engines below 2000lbst were ITAR.
Perhaps the avionics?
I still do not see this as a problem.
Even if its not a *lengthy*review, they'd may be adamant about getting perfect clarity about who is behind ETRIC and AIP, and how the technology will be used, etc.
Shane wrote ... Ken has objected to my implying he was the source for recent information.
Is Ken assuming that he is the one, the only, and the definitive Ken?
Kind of pompous, and offensive to every other Ken out there.
Since we already have The Real Frank Castle maybe we should request that he use the alt King of all things Ken.
flyboymark
“The additional following thought is if EAC was aging/normalizing retreating the HAZ zones?”
In your welding work, and fabrication of metal parts, you know that the strength of various metals is determined by a combination of “rolling”, “forging”, and “heat-treatment”. Most metals have a “grain” direction, due to a combination of the various processes. Anyone working with sheet-metal, especially "high strength" materials . . . "Stainless Steels", high-carbon steels, and most aluminum alloys, know the differences of bending them either "parallel" versus "normal" (perpendicular) to the grain . . . a sharp bend "parallel" to the grain is far more likely to crack.
The heat affected zones (of large aluminum* assemblies) cannot go back through these processes in the fabricated condition . . . without affecting most or all of the assembly. Even if it were possible to heat-treat/artificially age the entire fuselage, there is no practical way to “re-roll” (“forge”) the sheet aluminum, to restore grain size and direction. Anything done “after the fact” will leave an affected zone around localized processes. This is just a fact of welding . . . whether TIG, MIG, “stick”, “wire-feed”, oxy-acetylene, forge, “spot”, induction, friction (including the newer FSW method . . . not new, just a different form of a very old process), and any of many other welding/ brazing/soldering processes.
It’s interesting to note that even in the Bible, there are references to the problems of patching “old” material with “new” material . . . the “new” will tear the “old”. (Boy . . . I could preach a sermon on that one!)
Riveting, although not an answer-all process, does far less damage to the pieces being joined . . . and allows future repairs, while maintaining the strength of the original metal (or other material).
Now, for small assemblies . . . especially for a single use, high volume application, such as a weapon, “stir-fried welding” should have great application. This just makes sense!
gadfly
*aluminum = aluminium, to our friends across the “pond”. At one time, it was called “duralumin”. . . sometimes “dural”. What’s in a word? ‘Just for fun, read:
http://www.worldwidewords.org/articles/aluminium.htm
To catch up...
I agree with Baron's point regarding having a robot do the work versus an employee, but I think the problem with FSW was that it was way oversold. I think FSW only delivered marginal benefits and as such it cost more than it was worth in regulatory and financial troubles. Eclipse didn't get anywhere close to building an aircraft in a few hundred hours and instead Eclipse spent thousands of hours on each aircraft. It might be more worthwhile for a second mover who doesn't have to be the one to prove to the feds that the process is OK and instead if someone else comes along their costs would be much less and as such FSW's alleged marginal benefits might be financially worth it.
In regards to the investigation, I expect that mulitple regulatory agencies are doing investigations on ETIRC just as a matter of proceedure. I'm too unfamiliar with them to hazard as guess as to whether they would demand anything of significance.
Zed you were and continue to be a big wet flapping douschebag. Humbly of course. No not really.
fatigue is similar to TIG weldments in the HAZ ... FSW WILL have a shorter part life somewhere on the airframe than ole' buck rivets.
I'm neither metallurgist nor engineer, but the "little voice" wonders anyway...
...would adverse fatigue characteristics tend to be mitigated by the fact that riveted construction concentrates loads ( more or less ) around a point -vs- an FSW joint, with its linear load path between structural elements?
-----------------------------------
Perhaps germane to the patent payment discussion, EAC is listed as assignee on U.S. Patent 7,225,966, for use of a polymer sealant in FSW joints to combat corrosion.
Would you like to try the stir fry?
DI
There are electrical "heat belts" that can be used and locally applied for this application. I have used them before...I'm just wondering if EAC is going thru this process. Without the treatment of the joints its just a regular welded joint HAZ. Thus subject to normal weldment fatigue.
Dave,
The joint "should' be as strong or slightly stronger with equal fatigue resistance "IF" the full treatment is done to the joint(Post heat treat and aging). Thus the need for "heat belts' and a closely monitored process.
IS EAC doing this?
If NOT, there IS an issue..
FreedomsJamtarts said...
Does the EA 500 currently have an airframe life limit?
The airframe does indeed have a life limit. As I recall it is 10,000 hours. I do however need to go back and check the log books to verify that number is hours not cycles.
Dave,
On another thought, maybe in the beginning when the Tonka Jet was supposed to be $800K for entire hull, maybe replacing these parts was supposed to be a real cheap proposition, lets say 2000 hours? I can't say what the time life is and far as know the time/life fatigue test are "laboratory" accelerated. I don't think there are any "REAL" 5 or 6000 hour test airframes out there.
EclipsePilotOMSIV said ... Zed you were and continue to be a big wet flapping douschebag. Humbly of course. No not really.
Not humbly, or not wet?
FreedomsJamtarts said...
Does the EA 500 currently have an airframe life limit?
Not according to the FAA TYPE CERTIFICATE DATA SHEET NO. A00002AC. Revision 2 dated 15 Jan 08
There are certain secrets in the “machine trade”, little known among the general public. And in the present discussions, certain “myths” continue, even among some of the bloggers.
It seems to be a question of “skilled employee” versus “robot” versus “technology” . . . and there-in is the myth.
The best of all CNC equipment requires someone to program the beast. Someone may be the most gifted computer geek that ever set foot on earth, with knowledge of all programming wisdom . . . but unless he is an “artist”, a “true craftsman”, he’ll never in a lifetime be able to program, effectively, the best of machines or robots. Machining at any level is still an “art form”, requiring someone who almost “feels” within his own being, the things going on within machine and the parts being produced. I won’t bore you with examples.
As in music . . . the playing of one of “Stradi’s-various-violins’, or a Guarnerius . . . it takes a Niccolo Paganini, or a Jascha Heifetz, or an Itzhak Perlman . . . to bring out the full voice of wood and strings, coupled with the craftsman who selected the wood, shaving the pieces to shape, and glued together the many parts of the music machine . . . that tugs at the soul in the hands of the master.
The best machines in the world still require that delicate human knowledge and skill . . . almost more “born” than learned . . . but coupled with “hands-on” experience, and supplemented by the “books”, and formal training. There is no shortcut, here, contrary to modern thinking. A “master’s degree” . . . even a “PhD” cannot substitute for talent and experience . . . although each has value.
Don’t argue technology versus talent . . . you only perpetuate a myth . . . and maybe lay the foundation for yet another debacle, such as Eclipse.
gadfly
Of late, as “case in point”, I notice the talk of FSW has turned to “book theory” . . . hours in service and that sort of thing. Folks, you’re missing the point. Theories are no more than unproven predictions . . . great in the lab, but in the real world do not hold up. No lab can anticipate, nor duplicate the many conditions under which these little birds will experience in their lifetime . . . we’ve already been “treated” to the failure of computerized predictions. The “ant farms” had better success rates. Even empirical testing has a much higher success rate . . . and to date, none have been conducted.
Adam,
Fatigue and life limited parts are identified in the AMM (typically CH 04 and 05), not the TCDS.
ColdWetMackarelofReality said...
Adam,
Fatigue and life limited parts are identified in the AMM (typically CH 04 and 05), not the TCDS
That is why I said "Not according to...", rather than "no"!
Some aircraft do have life limits in their TCDS, such as the Grumman AA-5 TYPE CERTIFICATE DATA SHEET NO. A16EA
"Information with respect to service life limited parts on this Model is contained in the
applicable manufacturer's service manual, "Model AA-5, AA-5A, AA-5B, AG-5B
Service Manual, " Section 3-00 (Section 5 after 1976), "Service Life Limited
Components." Service life limits appearing in this manual may not be changed without
FAA Engineering approval."
"Service life limited parts must be retired in accordance with the following schedule:
Component Part Number Service Life (Hours)
Inboard Spar Assembly 5102310-503 12,000
Wing Spar Assembly 5201004-501 12,500
Wing Outboard Spar Assembly 5201189-501 12,500
Shoulder Bolt 901044-2, -3 7,250"
While others like the Bell 212 TYPE CERTIFICATE DATA SHEET NO. H4SW specify that there are limits, but not what they are, referring to the Maint Manual instead:
"NOTE 3. For Model 212, 412, 412EP, and 412CF the retirement times of certain parts and inspection requirements are listed in
the FAA approved Airworthiness Limitations, Chapter 4, of the Model 212, 412/412EP and 412CF Maintenance Manuals.
These values of retirement or service life and inspections cannot be increased without FAA engineering approval. The
Airworthiness Limitations Section of the Maintenance Manual must be complied with."
The Eclipse 500 TCDS doesn't say anything about life limits, but perhaps the Maint Manual does. As long as it is "approved" it is still a hard requirement.
Perhaps someone with the manual can look it up for the rest of us?
I believe there has already been ITAR clearnce for the PW610F to go to Russia. Surprising to me, but heck...
I sincerely doubt anything on the ea50 is of national security, especially since they didn't restrict the engine - probably the biggest threat. I think all Turbine engines below 2000lbst were ITAR.
Perhaps the avionics?
I still do not see this as a problem
airplanes in general are listed as a controlled ITAR product.
i don't know of an component (engines, avionics etc.) on the aircraft that would preclude the issuing of an ITAR exemption.
It seems to be a question of “skilled employee” versus “robot” versus “technology” . . . and there-in is the myth.
The best of all CNC equipment requires someone to program the beast.
Gad, I'm not trying to perpetuate that. I know about CNC programming and that it pays well. I'm saying FSW brings only marginal improvements at best...one of the reasons of course being that it still takes people to work on the FSW equipment. It could actually be that Eclipse shaved off a few hours from each unit and had a lower FTE count compared to traditional manufacturing, but it could be that the reduction in FTEs wasn't sufficient enough to cover the cost of the higher paid FSW workforce and as such FSW is actually more expensive to use all costs considered. Based on what's come out from Eclipse about how long it takes them to manufacture each unit (I remember them saying that their goal was to get down to 4000 hours per unit), the benefits of FSW don't seem that impressive as a cost savings device (and others have raised issues of FSW of being unsafe, but for the sake of argument I'm assuming both methods are equally as good and it is only a matter of cost).
Adam,
Note 6 of the EA-500 TCDS requires maintenance IAW the AMM and then lists several AMM versions based on the 'rev level' of the plane.
I was only pointing out that the TCDS in and of itself may not list a fatigue life.
The Cessna 510 (Mustang) also refers to the AMM (Note 3) for life limited parts, etc.
Dave
We're undoubtedly on the same page. In all this discussion, it's somewhat confusing at times as to who is speaking to whom, and the basics of the arguments. Let's not get ourselves caught in the cross-fire.
You are speaking of the economics of the FSW thing . . . I'm speaking more of the mechanics of the thing. And, obviously, the issues are closely related. But whether or not this thing is profitable, I am more concerned about the safety issues. The financial part has a tendency to settle its own . . . given time. Time settles the safety issues, as well, but the cost is much greater.
gadfly
"FreedomsJamtarts said...
Does the EA 500 currently have an airframe life limit?"
The correct answer is: YES.
It is limited by the company's ability to finance itself and sustain support.
I know this is tongue in cheek - but it happens to be a realistic assessment of the situation.
The limitation on these aircraft, on the short end, is correlated more to financing than engineering.
If they were well fnanced, one could begin an engineering discussion about life-limits on parts/frames.
They are not.
Does FSW have any aerodynamic advantage? Does it save some fuel?
Remember, Eclipse was suppose to "darken the skies" just a little fuel savings could add up to a lot.
Maintenance requirements for turbojet aircraft differ a little from piston powered aircraft
FAR 91.409 e
turbojet multiengine airplanes, turbopropeller-powered multiengine airplanes, and turbine-powered rotorcraft. No person may operate a large airplane, turbojet multiengine airplane, turbopropeller-powered multiengine airplane, or turbine-powered rotorcraft unless the replacement times for life-limited parts specified in the aircraft specifications, type data sheets, or other documents approved by the Administrator are complied with and the airplane or turbine-powered rotorcraft, including the airframe, engines, propellers, rotors, appliances, survival equipment, and emergency equipment, is inspected in accordance with an inspection program selected under the provisions of paragraph (f) of this section, except that, the owner or operator of a turbine-powered rotorcraft may elect to use the inspection provisions of §91.409(a), (b), (c), or (d) in lieu of an inspection option of §91.409(f).
When eclipse delivered the aircraft included in the maintenance logs are a list of all life limited parts, the number of cycles and or time on them, and number of cycles and or time remaining. For the airframe it states 10,000 hours , 10,000 cycles, and 10 years.
"Does FSW have any aerodynamic advantage? Does it save some fuel?"
From a strictly practical sense, the answer is "No!"
In a theorectical sense, some could debate this forever . . . and yet still come up with the same answer.
"Flush rivets" are extremely efficient. The potential "ripple" on the skin from internal welds of any kind, could negate any and all imagined benefits. But there are other more pressing issues of drag on this little low speed bird.
Take your pick . . . makes little difference.
gadfly
(Wiping the dust off the entire aircraft probably has more advantage.)
JR -
Unless turbulent flow is desired for a specific purpose (energizing flow at the ailerons, etc.) ... obviously a smooth surface is better than a dimpled surface, especially in the (near) laminar flow areas of the airplane.
Whether those drag reductions from partial use of FSW made an appreciable dent in the design's overall drag index is know only to Oliver Masefield and his design team.
Often, simple things like intake scoops, exhaust vents, door handles, etc. can mess up a design more than eliminating a few rivets can improve it.
The aero improvements that came with SN-105 and subsequent made tweaks to the bullet fairing on the empenage, rudder end plate, drain holes, gear fairing, nacele scoops ... and had a significant improvement in efficiency.
Gadfly wrote ... Wiping the dust off the entire aircraft probably has more advantage.
Elegant simplicity !
They never taught us about dust in inguneering school.
We lernt all kines of stuff in aeronautical mekaniks, when we get our "A und P" tikket.
gadfly
When we got traned in rivets, we asked how to make 'em flush, and they taught us to just pull the chain.
Gad,
Did you ever work with ice box rivets?
Zed . . . it's been so long ago, I think we used a few in training. For those who may have never heard of them, they were used for alloys such as 24ST (2024). . . and were designated something like 17ST . . . or other. They were relatively "soft", as long as they were kept cold . . . down below "Zero" F, but at higher temperatures (room temperature) they would "Age Harden" rapidly, especially after being "set" or "bucked". Most shops didn't have anything cold enough, in which to store them, so they were not often used, except in the original factory. I'll look through my old handbooks, or maybe "CAM18" . . . to get a better answer.
There was also an explosive rivet, with a powder charge in the stem . . . for repairs where the rivet could not be "bucked". The rivet was placed in the hole, and set off with a soldering iron. The tail of the rivet exploded outward, gripping the patch or repaired layers. They were not recommended for structural repairs . . . sort of a forerunner of a "pop" or Cherry rivet, without the "shank".
Regardless, in every case, a tight accurate hole was required . . . something that might be lacking in much of what we have been told about Eclipse.
gadfly
When a TBM is built all of the rivets are kept in a freezer, and taken to the work station in a small portable cooler. They are pulled from the container, dipped in sealant, then driven. It's an amazing process to watch, and extremely labor intensive. It's one of the many reasons that a TBM costs $1M more than a Meridian.
Well, rats.
I keep telling you guys to use smaller words and more pictures, preferably color ones.
But NOOoooo.
Smarty pants like Flyboymark and Gadfly go around using not only big words, but acronyms.
So here's the deal: I'll see your HAZ, and raise you one (letter):
TMAZ !!
Good FSW stuff
So There !!
AND- make sure you scroll up to the top of the page- Section 1 -weird university web site...
(Pictures, but not color...oh well)
Or try FSRL, at BYO, er, BYU.
(Probably nobody remembers what BYO stood for...Party On Boomers !!)
FSRL at BYU
(Nope- I can't get the "3D animation" or "read publications" link in the bottom RH corner to open either- another weird university web site- hopefully somebody will figure out how to get them to open).
A few blogs ago Shane asked if anyone knew the highest price ever paid for an Eclipse Jet.
More importantly, at least to the current owners, is how LOW the resale price may go on their jets before a bottom is reached.
Anyone care to venture a guess?
I'll start off with my own guess, and my rationale.
First, I think that a lot of Eclipse Jet buyers shouldn't really have purchased a jet - any jet - in the first place. They made their decision when real estate prices were going up and their retirement plans were worth twice as much as they are now. They thought they'd be paying "less than a million", and extended themselves father than they would have liked to pay the difference between what they envisioned and what they had to pay to stay in the game. To say they are "marginal" buyers would probably be an understatement. They really can not afford the insurance, the fuel costs, the debt service or even the ramp fees. Their real budget would accommodate a high performance single engine piston plane. These owners are hanging on for now, but really can't afford to see many more hits to the economy, their business or their retirement savings.
Ken, does this ring a bell? ;-)
(Kidding - I have no idea what Ken's financial situation is - but I couldn't resist. Yes, that's a joke, Ken!).
So these buyers won't be able to hang on when the "next shoe drops" in the economy. What will that be? Really, can it get any worse? Well, assuming our government runs out of countries willing to continue to finance our never-ending bailouts by buying our debt at pretty close to zero percent return, it would be - drumroll - higher interest rates. This would be the final nail in the coffin for real estate. It might not happen until stimulus package 3 or 4 or 5, but it will probably happen.
So that means more jets being sold into a shrinking market with no liquidity. And higher interest rates to buyers, if they can even qualify for a loan, softening the market further.
Translated into dollars - if this happens I wouldn't be too surprised to see E500's selling around $250,000. About the same as an earlier MU2. Why? Because in addition to the poor economy I really doubt the Russian plant will ever be built. Or if it is built, that it will be many years in the future and meanwhile the E500 will be an orphan. I don't think the factory in ABQ will be open much longer. As someone in this blog suggested, the fleet will be cannibalized to provide parts for the few jets that can actually remain flying.
Disclaimer: this is not a prediction, though it does kind of sound like one. This is just food for thought. I am trying to think outside my "comfort zone." No aircraft is immune to price declines in this scenario, although some may fare better than others.
Hi Gadfly,
Thanks for the fun reading on the history of Alum-whatever !! (I actually have been hearing the funky pronunciation from European friends- figured them fureners just don't noe about metals none).
Adam and CWMOR (nice to see you back- or is it I that have been away...),
Thanks for the fatigue info on the Grumman products- looks like a lot of bonding issues, along with some other stuff.
I see a lot of Cessna 4xx's (I can't tell them apart) with substantial reinforcement straps around the fuselages- guess with age, they need bigger belts, like all of us...
I think there was an Eclipse PR about the FAA granted Eclipse 10000 hours as a interim measure, pending fatigue testing- does anyone know if this was conducted?
Thanks.
---------------------------------
Ken,
I hope you come back soon! (I'm counting on you to be a mentor blogger for EPx).
9Z
i think you're right ...!
with my very modest understanding of monetary masses and financial games , i would risk this "nearly" prediction ...
with the Bail-out ;which one(s) ? i am starting to be a bit confused ... before they were talking of Billions ... after hundred(s)of Billions ... now they talk happily about Trillions ... like it would be that easy ... !!
(something like : between time i open an eye and the moment i take my first morning-coffee , if bored ...i make a few Trillions ... just for fun ...!)
i really missed this ... i should have been in the printing business ... mother was right " if you do not work in school , you'll become Mr No-one ... i wonder how many years THEY wasted in school ? ;-)
so , the numerous Bail-out have a potential risk ... a very serious one ...!
in order to finance it , the US Govt will have not too many other way than to buy out the previous "papers" lying around ... especially abroad ...
to then re-emit new T-bonds to "finance" (in a longer terms , welcome to the World , newly born ...) the said bail-out ...
so in a first go , the $ is going to rise ... (influx of demand of "old"$)
do not fall in the trap !
then a soon as the bail-out will be in full-effect ( as in terms of Govt Debt and stuff like this)
expect the masses of $ , injected to "kill" any left-over value ...
add an other digit to interest-rates and destroy further any credit-speculation based deals such as Housing and a few things like it ....
so , related effect on the Fpj :
in the first go , the majority of "Going to Russia" (thru i still have many doubts ) is going to seems like playing the winning horse ... (if $ is up , products from abroad = cheaper)
then as time will bring changes , all the benefits of exo-production will be voided by the plummeting $
which is where (in case , US citizens switch back to production , instead of running after chimers , speculation and domination ) it will be a new chance for the country ...
but of course , it is only "MY" way of seeing the things ...
BTW , no one picked-up an other "incoherence" in the Russian plot ...
IF Russia is set for developing , it can do it with "better" techs ...
BUT i would say that the most important aspect would be to Create jobs ... well paid Jobs ...
which means that the "product" would be mainly for "export" ...
(product made by well-paid workers and for domestic market would ONLY push inflation even further ?
russian inflation forecast next year 20 to 30 %)
so in one case : Fpj would be meant for internal market , and made with high techs but low paid grunt ... techs which are actually paid quite a lot for a product-market no one knows if it exist ...
and
if it is to be made by a robot with helps of high techs where is the Cheaper labor meant by going abroad ?
considering that going to Russia is probably to be a financial burden in the first(s) year(s) ...
once again , it doesn't make sens in this saga ... !!!
EA5000s wrote: When eclipse delivered the aircraft included in the maintenance logs are a list of all life limited parts, the number of cycles and or time on them, and number of cycles and or time remaining. For the airframe it states 10,000 hours , 10,000 cycles, and 10 years.
Ouch!. 10 year life limit!! When I said that in ten years the only Eclipse which are still flying will be operated like warbirds, I didn't realise that there was calender hard life on the airframe.
These life limits, especially the 10Y, will be directly related to the FAA cert teams confidence in the substantiation of the stir fried weld fatique behaviour (ie, you have ten years to prove it)
If they had a riveted primary structure, I they would never have "earned" this limit!
Has any American ever requested the Ecorpse CRI'S under the freedom of information act? It would be interesting to see what CRI C-06 sonic fatique (FAR 23.571) contains. It looks like the cert team did not open a CRI for the MOC associated with FSW as a new and novel manufacturing process, although they were strictly required to, to document such things as the agreement to perform fatique testing to raise the life limit.
What are the chances of the fatique testing required to raise this life limit, to the intended design life, ever being performed? Flexing an iron eagle is a multi year commitment requiring constant input of the real field fatique damage data to be meaningful.
Don't expect an authority to go out on a limb and extend that ultimate service life, with a Standard CofA, without a TC holder providing solid engineering data.
Since the first plane has already consumed 20% of it's allowed service like, and only has about 95 months to go, those quesses what is the highest price and lowest price paid for an Ecorpse are interesting.
The market will realise that the plane has a hard "use by" date in addition to all the other issues weighing on it's resale.
Probably doesn't even contain enough aluminium to turn a profit scrapping them, once all the labour to remove wiring etc is factored in.
Snippet Time
1. VEB, it transpires, were NOT given the authority to pump in all that money. There are ongoing efforts to persuade the Russian 'powers that be' of the urgency (for Roel) of getting the funding, but no luck so far.
2. Next deadline is Tuesday night or very early Wednesday. Cash must be injected to fund payroll, which is due tomorrow week, Friday 20th.
3. EAC lawyers are getting concerned about the position of company officers in a 'default' scenario. Since several promised events, which were in writing, have not actually happened, its' possible senior staff could be held personally liable. The company IS in Chapter 11 and as such owes certain duties to the Bankruptcy Court.
4. Several sources tell me Hawker Beechcraft are at risk, which is ironic given they were the only other GA company to even look at EAC.
We have to face the fact that the longer this Chapter 11 process drags on, with no clear end in sight, the more likely Chapter 7 becomes. In many ways this outcome is 'cleaner' since it would remove uncertainty and allow adults to take over this particular asylum.
For the sake of depositors, customers, suppliers and staff, all of whom are left hanging by ETIRC's inability to close the original deal, I say to Roel...
PUT UP, or SHUT UP.
Shane
In many ways this outcome is 'cleaner' since it would remove uncertainty and allow adults to take over this particular asylum.
Monsieur Shane ...
sometime , i am so glad NOT to be adult enough ... ;-)
tough time for 60%'s and 10%'s ...
workers as well ...
but isn't it said that the end of something is the beginning of something else ?
clarity will be better !
Gadfly made a great point on the art of machining.
When making limited production runs of complicated parts (and almost anything in aviation is limited production at best), using mechnisation is often not about lowering cost, but about improving quality, repeatablity and performance (weight, physical properties etc).
Huge intertial welding "lathes" are not used by GEs venders to join disks into spools because it is cheaper than a guy with a tig torch, it is because this is the only process which meets the performance requirements (weld uniformity, lack of inclusions, repeatablity etc).
If Ecorpse poured millions into a stir fry line becasue they thought they could produce 1000 airframes/year cheaper than rosy the riveter, this is just another symptom of the lack of knowledge/ engineering judgement/ management experience/ common sense which characterised this outfit.
yes , freedom ...
in other words what i was trying to point out in previous post ...
(not entirely on the same view , but very related ...)
Stir-Fried was meant to save work-man-time on not having to much costs (and level of competency ?) with workers ...
it has been extremely expensive to set-up , not even talking about reliability of such : which could/should be expressed in $ ...
so it was more or less sustaining the comparison when making thousand or tens of thousand ...
not we are back on earth , the order-book is left with 260 already built and roughly i would imagine an other 250/300 to be build ...
which annihilate already pretty much all advantage of FSW ...
Now , with the same numbers , if you go to an other country "because" workers are cheaper ...
where is the advantage of FSW ? if the workers are cheaper (they are in absolute !) wouldn't it better to throw the FSW-machine to the garbage ?
and have good old manner of riveting done by an army of "basic" floor-workers !
since they are cheaper AND if well managed and taught , probably better or at least , not a jump in the "unknown of time-reliability"
but then , IF FSW make a disadvantage for a Russian-plant ... how to explain the bank will pay to get it ???
sometimes , chasing chimers can be such a good fun !!!
Shane do you mean Hawker Beechcraft has some risk with regards to Ecorpse, or is a risk in their own right due to the currect economic climate.
I would imagine right now that the only person who does not have a employment risk is a bankruptcy judge!
Yepp, no management control of costs (or anything else).
Ecorpse had a whole department working for years on Stir fry, spending millions to theoretically save hundreds.
With the sort of life cycles, change management and product runs that GA has, anyone with any experience was telling them that any theoretical saving was going to disappear into the cost of financing, maintaining the equipment, personel training, modding/maintaining the hard tooling etc. Rosy the riveter is cheap, flexible, can be easily retrained for other tasks, and cost little to fire and rehire as the need changes.
The other GA outfits are not too stupid to use technology, the are too smart to let it take away their flexiblity in a industry characterised by wild swings in the business cycle.
Do you think EA 500 resale value will theoretical reduce linearly with the number of months of remaining airframe life to zero, or will potential used buyers (hey we are in fantasy land here, bear with me) all want young A/C of the 2008 model year?
freedom :
Don't be so nasty ! ;-)
Our Kenny's plane(s) is (are) 2007's ...
by the time you will have finished to read this , the overall resale value will have dropped of this much ...
could it almost ok , if maintenance wouldn't rise with the same speed ...
ain't be disruptive ? huh ...
Ken EA500s and the other owners,
That 10Y airframe life limit is one of the single biggest threats to your investment.
Avio/AvioNfG may become completely unsupportable, but they also be reliable enough to soldier on.
Upgrades may never become available, but maybe they will.
There may be a TC holder to provide for the continued airworthiness, but even if there isn't, there may not be any more unsafe conditions lurking in the design.
But if the work doesn't get done to raise that life limit, in about 7 years, you have a worthless liablity, because who would buy a plane with only a year to run?
Have the owners discussed this with EJAI? What is their position on this?
Disclaimer
KoolAid wears off
Rosy glasses off.
Don't get me wrong - I think you have a near worthless liablity already, I am just pretending to look at the world through the Wedge rosy glass after a deep draw on the KoolAid.
AVIO and AVIOnFg are already all but unsupported.
The delivered EA500's will never get FIKI, a real multi mode A/P, an A/T, a real integrated FMS or the other open IOU's.
You will never again have a TC holder in the sense of a current production manufacturer, investing in improving the product.
Some of inevitable future AD's are going to ground the fleet for long periods until the Diehards shell out lots of cash as a group to get some good DER outfit to address them.
Each time this happens the active fleet will shrink until the last of the Die Hardest make a deal with the Alaska ACO to recertify the remaining few back onto the "Experimental Exhibition" catagory so they can operate them on Special Flight Pemits like warbirds.
at the onset of ths string.. I asked:
"forgive me... but where are we seeing this injection?"
I guess we all now know why I asked this question...
FJT,
Interesting analysis. How about an 'inverse' Hobbs meter in the aircraft that runs all the time:
"2,920 Airframe Days Remaining"
freedom:
you accurately describe the risk, with and without wedge-colored glasses - congrats, not an easy thing to do.
the history provides a great indication of which description is more likely to unfold...
LAstly, this is why I have said EVRY FLIGHT PUT YOU CLOSER TO AOG.
We have to face the fact that the longer this Chapter 11 process drags on, with no clear end in sight, the more likely Chapter 7 becomes. In many ways this outcome is 'cleaner' since it would remove uncertainty and allow adults to take over this particular asylum.
I hope Eclipse is put up for bid again with the stalking horse bid taken away and along with that Roel not being the one to vette the other bidders. Roel might end up with Eclipse anyway (and if he does bid, he has to go through the vetting process like everyone else and prove he can honor the terms of his bid), but at least this would be a cleaner and more transparent process than having Roel with full control as both the buyer and seller who rushes things through court and puts up roadblocks for others. I think Eclipse will eventually end up in Chapter 7, but at least if there's a fair and open process with only legit bids allowed, this gives an opportunity for someone better to step in.
BT,
you are one clever mthrfkr
Putin has already said publicly that the Russian government can not help everyone, and that "social benefits" (meaning jobs saved or created) would be a key consideration.
His remarks were made in response to the overwhelming demand for govt "bailout" money. As of Jan 29th, large-sized Russian companies have requested over $90b of "bailout money" but only $50b is allocated. Separately, on Feb. 5th roughly $1b was allocated to VEB for help to small and medium-sized business, but this amount is probably even more inadequate than what is intended for large enterprises.
We don't know if Eclipski is seeking $205m of the $50b (.2)%or the $1b(20%!), or something entirely different (RPs talks with the Russians pre-date the financial crisis). But the Eclipski project is clearly competing against urgent needs of established Russian companies.
However, it appears (from info in an earlier post) that RP produced a document from VEB regarding a VEB investment. Depending on how strong this document portrays VEBs interest, VEB may have some "reputational risk" that may influence their decision. Maybe someone more knowledgable can comment on what was provided to the court. Was it a letter of interest, letter of intent, commitment letter, love letter or something else?
Also, in January the Russian government drastically changed its economic and budget forecasts (to be MUCH lower, of course).
Fred: I agree that it doesn't make much sense to use FSW in Russia, but the payment for patents seems to be integral to making the deal happen (VEB loans $ to ETRIC to pay for patents, patent holders contribute this $ as equity.)
Why don't we just ask the question?
Ken, were you made aware of the 10 year life? If so, when? and what did they tell you?
We could help Ken by putting his HOBBESng up here.
When was his delivered?
I agree with Dave. It would be interesting to see a tranparent BK process (It surprised me that the US legal system allows such a stitched up 363 auction with the huge conflict of interests demonstrated by Pieper on both sides of the deal.)
Shane, since there weren't that many guesses as to the highest price paid, please put us out of our misery and tell us.
(I think I won, as mine was the highest of the three guesses.)
regarding the BK process:
these guys are battle hardened politico and busines men. If the deal was good at $200M (or whatever) last month, it will be equally good a $20M in CH7 next week.
Will there be any dammage to the value of the company if its shut down before the remains are sold off? I think not. They have proven that they do not care to manufacture in the US, and they can easily string the die-hards along, even more perhaps, when all is finally closed and somehow rreopened - IF they care to support the fleet.
I do not think anyone in their right mind would pay very much for EAC.
No Brand value
No business case for their product
No orders, really
Limited value for equipment and inventory (very limited)
And knowing its being moved to Siberia, well, who cares about ABQ or the US 260 planes that are probably more trouble than they are worth. Open up a repair shop and charge up the wazoo...
Pretty sad state of affairs.
If I ever thought RP had a plan to make money with the EA50, I am convinced he does not.
and
I think his exit plan just got flushed.. just intuition
Freedom,
Shane do you mean Hawker Beechcraft has some risk with regards to Ecorpse, or is a risk in their own right due to the currect economic climate.
Very much on their own. I included it in the 'snippet' because they had looked at Eclipse. I'm not aware of any commercial relationship between the companies.
Shane
RP love letter from VEB (referenced in my earlier post):
Dearest comrade RP,
We think of you always. Our collectivist heart skips a beat when we think of E500's manly dual-engine thrust. We are eager to make Eclipski child. Please send photo.
no , jack ... ;-)
in the case of the patent (FSW) i would dare to say that it seems that the "fable" of Royalties and patent payment was "Smoke&Mirrors" ...
just a way to lure the Russians to Give some funds , enabling RP to buy EAC...
if you have any experience with finances-proceeding : a kind of soliciting
(you go to see someone ask this person to whom you are supposed to sell something to give you a bank-Guarantee that cover the price of what you sell , then you go to see an other bank and ask for a loan of the value , once you have the money , you buy what you are supposed to sale only to resale it to the one who gave you the Guarantee in the first place ... result : it has costs you nothing , you keep the profits of sale , buyer pay the price and bear the risks of financing ...! ;-) no need to say : Supposed to be forbidden everywhere !! but with very good connections ....)
I'm sure when Ken bought the Ecorpse, there was no 10Y life limit. Only once the plane got it's TC was this fixed in stone, and by then Ken was in hook, line and sinker.
At the time of delivery Ecorpse was acting like a company with a future. It would have been easy enough back then to have shown the plans for the Iron eagle and project plan for fatique testing to stay afead of the fleet leader and expand out to the design limits.
Ken now brushes off the BK and dreams of a relationship with EJAI or another future TC holder. In reality there is still a huge amount of neccessary, complicated, highly integrated, engineering work to do on the EA 500 just to keep it going. If this work doesn't get done, the fleet is doomed.
Without a competant TC-Holder, any AD can be terminal. Anyone of the A/P, display, Pitot etc known issues could get reclassified to an unsafe condition (highly likely in the event of a crash)
Does EJAI have the IP / source code / Compliance documetnation/ certification procedures etc for Avio software, or a contract with Avidyne for support? Ditto for AVIOnFg with ISS?
Out of the ~80 cars still coming to the car park each day, does one of the them belong to an experienced structural engineer, intimitly familiar with the stir fry process and with the agreement with the FAA as to how that 10Y limit would be expanded in steps?
Jack :
if you want to have infos about the How's" may be you should get a look at an other masterpiece of enlightened management from RP ...
it is called " L&H" ...
too many similarities to be only a coincidence ...
and the "absolute mess" this eclispky seems to be is only one of the minor ones ...;-))
Concerns about FSW are, I think, ill-founded in terms of corrosion or lifecycle.
It surely is not adding risk to the program in any relative term. Tooling has already been bought and paid for(TM Eclipse - Paid For may mean the tooling was actually paid for or it may mean the tooling has been received and is in use by Eclipse but full or partial payment may or may not have been made).
Had EAC been able to generate the actual demand they wanted, it may even have given them a slight edge in manufacturing costs.
Repair of FSW structure looks to have been purely conventional, stop drill cracks, and rivet repairs in place - FSW cannot be done in the field or on an assembled airframe - again, I think a strawman we need not concern ourselves with.
The unrealistic business plan, legendary level of poor execution, and mismanagement have been and remain the primary issue. Add in the less than honest dealings with the press, the customers, the vendors, the politico's for good measure.
IOW, don't waste time on the non-issues. The reason this thing stinks has to do with the current and previous executive leadership and the ethos they demonstrated.
ohh yes ... wet-fish ...
FSW is almost a NON-event !
a bit the "alpha" and "Omega" of the saga ...
the thing that makes everything possible , justify the whole thing and eventually lure any gullible to finance the whole thing ...!
CWMR
You are correct in terms of production. Real production will never start again, so Stir Fry is of no relevance.
It is of huge consequence to those 260 lucky die hards with a 10Y life limit.
That life limit only gets lifted if:
1/ There is a significant bit of engineering work performed, and;
2/ The result of that work actually substantiaties a higher limit. It could indicate that their are existing structural deficiencies
Would you like a fortune cookie with that order sir.
Jack , if you can read french (i know... no one is perfect !;-) )
i can post a good link which explain well what was "L&H" from the biggest newspaper of the country where it did happen ...
unfortunately , it is in french (Belgium)
so ?
From Russia :
a new set of laws aimed at Transparency and Responsibility in Russian Banking Sphere ...
with tight rules and controls , what are the chances left ?
from RosBizConsultant
"Government officials have defined the financial support of the real sector as a top priority. Though banks are reporting increased corporate lending rates for recent months, companies are still complaining that the state funds take too long to reach borrowers. In order to restore cooperation between banks and businesses, also making loans more available to the vital industries, the Central Bank passed a set of new regulations.
Among other things, it obliged large banks to provide monthly reports on loans and deposits for separate industries such as manufacturing, construction, transport, real estate, etc.
Apparently, the regulator wants to check banks' compliance with the government's anti-crisis policy, instructing them to focus their lending efforts on real sector corporations, especially those in vital economic industries, explains Sergei Karykhalin, chief analyst at Kapital Investment Group. Yet such reports will not necessarily reflect an accurate picture. "But anyway, these are the right initiatives, especially in the light of the government's recent statements that its reserve would not suffice for all. Thus, the Central Bank is trying to check whether the banks lend the money where they ought to, or abuse the bailout funds instead," he said.
The Central Bank's efforts to enhance the transparency of the national banking system can only be welcomed, analysts agree. The industry-based structure of bank loans takes on added importance now, providing an opportunity to assess the potential level of defaulted loans for various industries, noted Valery Piven, senior analyst at Otkritie Financial Corporation.
The faster such information comes, the less disappointment there will be for all parties interested in getting information about banks. In other words, the Central Bank is trying to assess the scale of possible problems in order to take preventive measures and save the banking sector from massive losses. Another question is how the Central Bank will use this information. It can either share it with the public through its monthly bulletins, or keep it all for itself.
To ensure control, the Central Bank will send its envoys to the banks that benefited the most from the government's bailout program, including Sberbank, Gazprombank and VTB. All in all, thirty banks will welcome the Central Bank's inspectors later this month. The Central Bank's Board of Directors passed the necessary documents yesterday, and they have been sent to the Justice Ministry for registration, Viktor Melnikov, deputy chairman of the Central Bank, reported. They will take effect shortly after publication.
Thus, the Central Bank is tightening control over Russia's banking system. And the better it is informed of this or that bank's risks, the more efforts it will make to rescue such banks, and the more accurate assessments could be made for the required amount of financial support, experts say."
another Russian's brief to explain why this fiasco doesn't stand a chance ....
PM wants a very tight control of WHERE the money is going ...
Bloody Russkys ... they don't want to invest in Printing-machines ...!!
RBC, 12.02.2009, Moscow 12:38:23.
The ongoing governmental talks may result in either the Deposit Insurance Agency or Vnesheconombank taking charge of buying up troubled assets from Russian banks, a source close to the talks told RBC. Although no decisions have been made so far, both the agency and the bank are bidding for the right. It is not yet clear what assets will have to be bought out, as this could include securities and real estate. Most likely, however, it will imply loans extended to companies.
According to the source, banks that could be offered the chance to sell off their distressed loans will be carefully screened by several criteria, including the bank's size and the portfolio of loans to the real sector. Either way, inefficient owners will not be entitled to any assistance, as loans that were "bad" from the outset will not be bailed out.
The government is also weighing the price of such assets, as there are plenty of ways to calculate it, starting from the book value to 10 to 30 percent discounts. An independent appraiser can also be engaged. The source said that it would be expedient to entrust the matter to the Deposit Insurance Agency. Vnesheconombank, in turn, has received far less from the government than it had asked for, and granted just a small part of it to credit institutions. According to the source, the bank may be seeking the right to bailouts in order to lay its hands on extra budget funds
It never crossed my mind to see if EA500 had a "calendar" life limit...WOW and OUCH!
Ten years on an airframe goes by in a blink if it's your personal airplane and you love it. Consider there are MANY other aircraft today that are well over 40-50 years old without this issue!
Then there are some other real boo-boo's too.
D-18 spars
Early King Air spars
certain early Piper Cherokee spar center section fastening points(5k hr ..I think)
Early Bonanzas with the old chrome molly tube center section
...are the ones that come to mind.
Oh! we had and early Huges 300 we started to rebuild Replacement of time/life limited parts was killing us so we liquidated it.
One thought you guys are completely passing over.
PRODUCT LIABILITY
The 10 year limit virtually eliminates liability for these jets after period of time! If a third party wants to RE-CERTIFY the aircraft with an STC? THEY then assume the responsibility.
My brother is well known aviation insurance broker in the industry insuring MANY FBO's, celebrity , corporate jets and some manufactures.
The largest amount of money involved is "product liability coverage", approaching 40% on some airframes.
Insurance for lets say fleet of 3k aircraft for ten years with airframes being "fairly new" is going to considerably less than insurance to support 9k aircraft over 30 years with old airframes with high times and many unknown repairs done to them and pilots that are NOT factory trained.
AND......This makes the company more desirable for an IPO or resale at some future date....
SOOOoooo.......Who cares if the welds crack..heh-heh....calender date cure that issue, great cash skimming machine that resurfaces every few years with new owners. TONKA jet really IS disposable.
DAMN!... Ken,
That 1 1/2"X12" Lag bolt REALLY hurts.
Fred: I do understand some French (and read better than I speak it) but I'll take your word for it. No need to post the documents.
IPO ?
as in "Initial Public Offer" ?
good grace , are you nuts ? ;-)
or are we back in "internet bubbles" ?
no the only one thing this "firm" can be good at :
charging already trapped victims until they bleed all their cash ...
as "wounded elephants" like Monsieur Shane mentioned ...
you DO understand french ?
yakkk !
no i know : no one is perfect ! ;-)
Freedoms: Stir-fry was relevant b/c it appears that the intention was that the Russians pay $ upfront for patent rights (we don't know exactly what rights, but we speculate about stir-fy), the US govt is reviewing the transaction (stir-fry may or may not be a sensitive technology), and current owners have life-limited jets due to uncertainty of stir-fry long-term safety.
Fred : that is good info about the bank regulators.
I tried to make the point that the court docs say that certain letters showing financial backing have been provided to the sellers (senior bond holders of Eclipse). If the VEB letter shows a strong commitment to the project, then presumably VEB faces some reputational risk if they don't follow through. MAYBE that's the best chance RP has of completing the deal, and maybe if the letter is strong enough (e.g. a commitment letter) then the sellers will be more patient than otherwise.
Were these financing letters made public? Does anyone know how strong or what type of letter from VEB was produced?
Fred: I took French for many years in school. I was never fluent and I haven't used it for a long time. I remember enough to be able to read it (with the help of dictionary from time to time).
Fred: Your language skills are MUCH more impressive. English, Russian, French, and I suspect you know/can get by in a few more.
and maybe if the letter is strong enough (e.g. a commitment letter) then the sellers will be more patient than otherwise.
yes ...
but here we enter into TimeWarp-mode ...
seller can wait almost for ever (as long as the DIP can provide ) because the seller IS the buyer , himself ...
(very strange BK regulations ...)
as for the reputation of VEB , Russians are already depicted as BAD ...
so WHY care a bit more or a bit less ...
this is where i should add about your comment on the Nato base closing in Central-Asia :
NO , russia isn't behind the closure ( it diplomatically take advantage of it ...but that's all )
the base is closed after several incidents :
* refusal form US Govt to raise the Rent-Price
* "Some" US Soldiers on free time got drunk into town , drove back to base and had accidents with locals ...
* A truck-driver was shot dead at the entrance of Base , because security-guard search in his truck (he was on a delivery of water , foods , etc?) found a knife in the cabin , asking the driver in english , the guy couldn't answer and was apparently agitating his arms (nothing wrong , go to Italy ! ;-) ) an other guard shot him dead ...
the president of this country asked the matter to be investigated carefully by a team of both locals & US ...
he was answered that the US soldiers inside the base benefit from an extra-territoriality status , therefor cannot be charged !
you see , same story , two different versions (as usual ...)
Russians knows well that they are mocked in western minds ... they do not care this much ...
not very difficult ;-)
i have a french passport + a german one (family story)
did master of economics in USA
started a phD on Japanese Eco.
Born in Morocco
raised in Germany
lived in Israel/Palestine ...
did lots of travels and works a bit all around ...
in fact the language i manage the less is Italian , the only i've learned in school ...;-)
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