Saturday, August 30, 2008

Some words from staff, suppliers and customers

We've all had a little time to absorb the shocks from ABQ in the past 12 days or so. I thought it was right to share with the blog some of the email I've been getting. On the 'numbers' question, before you ask, I'd like to say this. I'm pretty sure that total accuracy on EAC will be as hard to achieve as agreeing the numbers who took part in Pickett's Charge at Gettysburg.

So, with that 'official health warning' herewith some thoughts and the supporting emails.

The blog email started to hum, big time, after Vern's shock announcement at Oshkosh on that fateful Monday. Various people were spotted coming and going at EAC and lots of rumors started flying around. I got caught up in myself and made a serious error in 'firing' several people. So I've been careful to avoid that this time, and have several sources, in almost all cases, for the information below.

The first one comes from a senior staff member who reacted to the layoffs by sending me a long and very informative email. Herewith a flavor of what was written. It goes to the heart of the matter, from someone who was there.

"My heart goes out to the group of good workers who were laid off yesterday. Due to the incompetent attitudes and behaviors of the Executive Staff many friends and good people are wondering what they will do next to provide for their families. I know that many who are still employed at EAC are feeling guilty because they were not chosen to be let go this time and in the back of their minds the question is occurring are they next?

I knew after about 6 weeks that Todd Fierro was the wrong man for this job. He was trying to apply DOT policies to a vehicle that works in two dimensions and not learning about the FAA requirements. He was making decisions that were just stupid, he was not consulting his staff of Managers who could have turned the tide around so that there would not have been the massive lay off there was yesterday.

20 Year Mechanic is right about all he has written in the blog. But most of I respect him for his ability to stay the course to make the EAC500 a safe and wonderful craft. I hope for the sake of all involved that they can see farther down the road and project a good future for EAC and for the good of New Mexico, we need to keep the doors open. There needs to be a general house cleaning with the Exec. Staff and not the "worker bees." You cannot lead by pushing, leaders have to lead from the front and the Exec. staff does not.

Mr. Raburn tried to make his craft fly before it could crawl. Again a waste and this attitude has impacted my home and my friends!

I can only hope that at some point that all the unqualified VP's are moved into mere manager positions so that they can face the general population that they angered over their inept and cowardly actions towards their charges, the employees of Eclipse, investors, and the purchasers of the EAC500. No responsibility has been taken by any one of those sons and daughters of snakes, the Executive Staff.

Karma has a way of catching up, if not in this lifetime most certainly in another."


This email was signed, and the person concerned has given permission for its use in this context.

Now we should move to the staff lay off. EAC have a company line, which says two things. One is that 650 people were laid off. The other says that 38% of the total employed were laid off. Everyone who has contacted me says that between 750 and 800 individuals got pink slips. EAC say that 1,100 positions continue in the company, when almost everyone says there are less that 900 actual people left.

How do we reconcile this? The straight answer is that 'we' can't. EAC have a poor track record with numbers. The state of New Mexico is compromised in any investigation under WARN legislation. It has after all, financial interests in the company, in several ways. I'm pretty sure the truth will out eventually, but right now, the picture remains clouded.

A short snippet from one of the suppliers:-

"EAC is returning $40 million in deposits. EAC needs to pay suppliers $60 million and that does not include volume reconcilliation since they did not achive the number of aircraft they forecast so you can add 10% and call it $66 million. They say the USA brand is "dented" so most future sale will be from Russia/Europe etc. The UBS financing guy doesn't even have an investor lined up and this is not a done deal but they feel real confident they will find a real jackass of a company to invest in this mess... OK, my wording. "experts" tell them they can do 2/day... All suppliers said bullshit to that. The ramp down was due to funding....of course. It takes 6000 hrs to build an aircraft and they need to take it down to 4050 hours. They say there are 1000 firm orders and 1100 employees. the bright news was that no one was cocky and they begged to keep suppliers on board. Everyone had a NEW attitude, a NON Vern one....but get this, they won't commit to keeping us on the E-400...that pissed some suppliers off!"

This is representative of the word from suppliers and is indeed a sad one. Many are owed multi million dollar sums and most now only deal with EAC on a 'pre pay' basis, and are hoping that something will come up to resolve the debt. Roel has offered those with bills outstanding the by now standard '6% interest' on their money, but everything depends on the UBS funding, of course. They even offered people who turned up for the conference a ride in the FPJ.

There is no truth whatsoever in the rumor that suppliers picked straws to see who HAD to fly in it...

Customers continue to have real issues. Simple service requests are not being dealt with, parts take forever to arrive, the slow down in production announced by EAC has impacted the delivery schedule and therefore the possibility of collecting the 60% '6 month prior to delivery progress payment'. And thats for the people who have stayed the course. For the very first time, reliable information has reached me on the number of deposit backed orders that were actually placed with the company. After all the dross is discarded (DayJet etc) there are just over 900.

This from another senior staffer:-

"We did get $$'s on all orders except DayJet (in the latest messaging these orders are gone), and for most of the 900 it is a 100K+ deposit. Bad news is that with almost 300 refund requests those full deposits are due back to the customer....."

Yes, I know it seems high, but remember that many people took two, three, four or in one case I'm aware of SEVEN positions. It's also over 8 years since Vern started taking deposits. Remember also that the total money collected is hard to calculate, since the first deposits were less than the later ones. Most seem to have paid about $150,000. So, how many people have asked for their money back?

As you can see, I'm told that about 300 have sought their money back. A total of '$45 million' (many paid a higher deposit) is required to keep these people happy. Roel has also stated that 'some' of the depositors have changed their mind and have asked to get back in line for a delivery. I suspect that these are people who have a very early position, and are looking at paying the price increase and getting an FPJ, or very probably loosing everything.

Other items include ongoing rumblings about senior staff, some of whom are moving 'sideways', a veritable feeding frenzy of recruitment events around ABQ and ongoing press coverage of the Ice Blue suit. I'm also hearing that one supplier in particular has been awarded '$7 million' after due process. Another couple of hits like that and the company will need serious cash, real fast.

I think I've covered a few of the bases there. Enjoy your 'Labour Day' long weekend, fly/drive/sail safe and have fun with your families and friends.

Shane

227 comments:

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No Mas said...

ATM

I know what you've been saying, but why would the equity investors allow a new debt investor to get into #1 position?

How does a $100M note supercede the previous $900M burned?

Does anyone have insight into big investors like Mann, Gates, etc.? How they are handling this situation will give the best insight (so far) as to what is really happening.

Mas

Formerly known as "Just zis guy, you know?" said...

They have already written off their investments, I'm sure.

Dave said...

How does a $100M note supercede the previous $900M burned?

Debt (secured) ranks higher than equity (unsecured). Roel for instance wouldn't own everything as other secured creditors have pieces. I for instance see the Gainesville and Albany airports burned pretty badly by Eclipse as they each have gone about $7 million in debt for Eclipse (Eclipse is an unsecured creditor as a tenant but the airports are secured debtholders where they've put their future revenues in hock to build facilities for Eclipse). The City of Albuquerque is a secured creditor with the Industrial Revenue Bond, but I don't see them getting back the entire amount that they've put into it.

airtaximan said...

mas,

a- they trusted Vern would not blow it for $100M

b- there was no way they would participate in more funding

c- there were no other options

- the only way out of this situation, after you receive the money, is to walk. Leave the bank holding the keys, so to speak. I guess management believed in Roel, more than Vern... imagine THAT!


Mas, whytech will tell you, its not that unusual.

I wonder if there are Preferred shareholders, etc... actually, stupid question on my part.. there's nothing left but the (how does this expression go?)

airtaximan said...

Dave,

Did you find anything Vern said regarding the number of orders to the GAO, congress, a gov't meeting etc?

Shane Price said...

Two Presidents

There is a plan, believe it or not. By running the company as two divisions, UBS can say to potential investors here is the production unit, with this demonstrated capacity, which can be cranked up to make pretty much any GA aircraft you like. Over here, on the other hand, are all the liabilities for the existing fleet, which may or may not generate a revenue stream.

Take your pick.

So they get to sell EAC twice.

What lucky chaps they are...

Weird sort of logic behind it, I think you will agree. The plant might find a buyer for a 'high volume' factory from someone seeking to expand their own production quickly. The 'sales' and (more important) service company can screw the existing customers into the ground, under new ownership. After all, those upgrades were promised by Mr. Raburn.

Vern who?

Speaking of old friends, I have a new headline post for tomorrow, which I know a number of you will enjoy.

Shane

flightguy said...

We know Piper was looking. Ar ethey still interested?

airtaximan said...

folks,

usually, aerospace companies design the parts with the supplier (in mind), so that manufacturability is designed in - especially for a new GA airplane designed for low cost.

If you think finding suppliers in Russia, or anywhere else for that matter, is going to be easy, you are probably way off base.

Then again, I am not sure they "really" designed this plane for low cost - I think they relied on volume production claims and low pricing based on trumpped up volume for lower prices... BIG error.

CWMOR, Gadfly could provide insight..

But, BOeing, Bombardier, Embraer, etc.. all do buiness around the world... including Russia.

Dave said...

There is a plan, believe it or not. By running the company as two divisions, UBS can say to potential investors here is the production unit, with this demonstrated capacity, which can be cranked up to make pretty much any GA aircraft you like. Over here, on the other hand, are all the liabilities for the existing fleet, which may or may not generate a revenue stream.

So it is Eclipse as the Roman Empire. Roel is no Diocletian, but I hope that he retires to a farm in Croatia to raise cabbages.

airtaximan said...

"UBS can say to potential investors here is the production unit, with this demonstrated capacity, which can be cranked up to make pretty much any GA aircraft you like. Over here, on the other hand, are all the liabilities for the existing fleet, which may or may not generate a revenue stream."

Shane, do you KNOW this is what they are doing? Or just imagining?

Are you saying "make any GA aircraft" as in... new EAC product? or ANY GA aircraft..."

Because, if its any GA plane, the claim is is complete unadulterated BS - it would be easier to buy a hangar and outfit it for production from scratch.

airtaximan said...

BTW,

I do not think the company has been "divided" in two from a corporate structure perspective... as in two companies - I think this is the way they are resolving inefficiencies and roles and responsibilities.

And, its compete amateur hour as a tactic, if this is what they are doing.

Their BIGGEST single problem was, no real market analysis went into the design. Vern declared what the plane needs to be - IIRC.

They built the wrong thing.

OK, now they are stuck with it, but this should be considered short term... they are going to build and support a family of planes...

Now there's some good BS for UBS.

Dave said...

UBS had previously raised $225 million in covertable debt for Eclipse:
http://www.bizjournals.com/albuquerque/stories/2006/07/24/daily27.html

Dave said...

Eclipse now has a lower BBB rating due to a second unanswered complaint (the summary of the second complaint isn't available):
http://www.bbbsw.org/BBBWeb/Forms/Business/CompanyReportPage_Expository.aspx?CompanyID=38435

airtaximan said...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eclipse_500

very good summary - I do not remember this robust an entry in wikipedia on EAC.

nice list of required rtrofits and IOUs, problems with EASA, etc.. and of course, my favorite - the V-jetII pedegree...

Shane Price said...

ATman,

Several sources, all saying similar things. The company has not been split up, just the management. However, it allows UBS to present it in the best possible light.

The production plant might (or might not) make the FPJ in volume, but could really churn out the ConJet. That's one of the ways they will play it. And remember, there is quite a lot of 'stuff' there, already TC'd and PC'd. Most of the 'core' staff are still around.

It might work, and for sure that's what UBS will tell the marks.

On the sales and service side, there is more of a challenge. Which is why it may end up as the 'orphan child'.

But...

Fundamentally, you're right. It must be better to start from scratch and do it right than try to fix what's already pretty badly smashed up.

Check in 'tomorrow' for the new headline. I'm pretty sure it will be worth it.

No, scratch that, I KNOW it's going to be special.

Shane

airtaximan said...

Flight International
Airspace Face-off
December 12, 2005
By Graham Warwick

"... Fully two-thirds of Eclipse's 2,300-plus orderbook is for air-taxi operators, who will employ their pilots, many of them expected to be ex-airline. The biggest of the announced orders is from DayJet for 239 aircraft to be delivered over 24 months, beginning around the middle of next year."

I guess this is the new math... its exciting to note 2/3 of the orderbook is air taxi guys like Dayjet... AND... dayjet only has 239 orders.

very interesting - and this was before etrick orders... its from 2005.

airtaximan said...

best possible light - funny.

Its a dumb plan... I liked "we're moving to Russia" better.

I'm going to watch UBS on this - if they are successful, I might have some deals for them and their clients!!!

easybakeplane said...

Does EAC have a friend in the local news media?
-------

I've heard a story that a certain well-known aircraft company was going to have a job fair in ABQ this week, but the newspaper messed up their ad and didn't tell people where to go!

------

Innocent mistake or something else?

Baron95 said...

ASM said ... Also Honda is going to do the European sales and service of the Honda Jet themselves.

Highly unlikely, based on two conversations I've had a few months back with people (from GE) in the know - they are looking for an european partner as well. BTW, I think the choice of Piper is not a great one. Piper's sales and support are not top notch and there is an obvious competitive situation involved.

airsafetyman said...

"ASM said ... Also Honda is going to do the European sales and service of the Honda Jet themselves.

Highly unlikely, based on two conversations I've had a few months back with people (from GE) in the know - they are looking for an european partner as well."

Below is from a Honda Aircraft press release:

GENEVA, Switzerland, May 20, 2008 – Honda Aircraft Company, Inc., began European sales of the HondaJet advanced light jet at the European Business Aviation Convention & Exhibition (EBACE) by introducing its first customer in the region – F-1 race driver and business entrepreneur, Jenson Button. To provide sales and service support to its customers in Europe, the company announced that it will establish a new European network of three HondaJet-exclusive sales and service centers.

Anonymous said...

Oh, the end can't be far now! Get a load of the ANN video on "pondering VLJ questions... and answer".

We all know that Capt Zoom hasn't a journalistic bone in his body, but even for him, this was over the top promotion disguised as "news".

So Eclipse is pulling out the PR stops now which means they must need some good "press" to make things work. The numbers alone (ha!) won't do it. Let's wallpaper over those cockroaches.

With customers like that, who needs product?

Niner Zulu said...

We covered some interesting ground... from the recently announced Eclipse 400, to the price increase Eclipse instituted for the Eclipse 500 twin jet program so that the company could work its way to profitability.

Let's be real.

1. Eclipse is not building the E400 now or in the foreseeable future. Why? Because they are dead broke. They have a net negative net worth, and no one has stepped up to the plate yet to offer them more cash to burn.

2. Eclipse doesn't know what a profit is. This is something they have never seen, nor will they ever see since their business plan guarantees they will continue to lose money, month after month until BK puts them out of their misery.

FreedomsJamtarts said...

Russia's aviation industrial base was devastated in the 90's. They are now consulidating it and building back up.

As far as I know no Russian product has even been certified by a JAA or now EASA team.

Certification as practised by the FAA dn EASA is not a russia strength. They had a completely different system.

We already know that the "ETRIC" office location in Moscow doesn't exist. This blogs travelling reporter went they to call that bluff.

Can anyone produce a photo of a grip and grin photo op of Roel/Vern and some local official laying the cornerstone of the new production facilities? Politians live for this kind of stuff.

No photo.... because there is no Russian plant being built. It does not exist, not even in cyberspace.

FreedomsJamtarts said...

How about we scrub the order books for them.

If we take the highest number of orders ever reliably claimed by Eclispe, and start substracting the ones we know have been cancelled, and the ones were resonable due diligence can show that they were vapour orders from a new start up which appears DOA.

I wouldn't surprised if we end up with a negative number...

I would propose the following be struck out of the "Blogger order book".

Alpha Airways minus 10 orders and 40 options
No Press releases or any other signs of life since mid 2006.

Jet Set Air Ltd Minus 10 orders and 40 options. No signs of life since that one Eclipse 01/2006 magazine article for the order.

Shane Price said...

New post up.

And it's pretty special...

Shane

angelinjones said...

n a highly competitive world where the customer expects to be king, why are so many firms unhappy with the products they purchase, sales staff that over-promise and don’t deliver, and less than optimal after-sales service? In a recent paper, “Rethinking Customer Solutions: From Product Bundles to Relational Processes”, published in the Journal of Marketing.
---------------
jones
Internet Marketing

angelinjones said...

n a highly competitive world where the customer expects to be king, why are so many firms unhappy with the products they purchase, sales staff that over-promise and don’t deliver, and less than optimal after-sales service? In a recent paper, “Rethinking Customer Solutions: From Product Bundles to Relational Processes”, published in the Journal of Marketing,
------------------
jones
Internet Marketing

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