The blog moves from strength to strength. More posts, from more people, are attracting attention. Try using Google to search for Eclipse Aviation and see how high up we rate. Most times, we are just a few lines below Vern's home page, so that anyone doing the simplest of research on the aircraft is bound to find 'us'.
Thank you again Gunner. We've offered to send more lawyers, guns or money, and so far you've said you don't require additonal assets. Please let the bloggers know if we can assist in this noble effort.
I have a feeling that it's the little things that will cause meltdown in EAC. I suspect that the little ROUND things with air in them might, just might, be the excuse the FAA need to 'review' their position on the FPJ.
2. SUMMARY:
An Eclipse 500 pilot recently experienced a dual engine control failure after applying forward force on the throttle levers resulting in exceeding the design throttle range of operation. This situation resulted in an inability to control engine thrust through normal means. Eclipse is working with the NTSB to investigate this occurrence, but is issuing immediate guidance to Eclipse 500 pilots to avoid excessive forward throttle force against the throttle stops.
3. BACKGROUND:
Following a reported windshear encounter on final approach, an Eclipse 500 pilot applied full throttle using enough force against the forward stops to result in exceeding the design throttle position signal maximum range. This out-of-range position signal for both throttles subsequently activated the ENG CONTROL FAIL CAS message for both engines. Since this fault mode was caused by invalid position signals, the system logic held the engine thrust settings at the last known throttle position, which was maximum.
Following a balked landing, execution of the L(R) ENG CONTROL FAIL checklist, and shutdown of one engine, the pilot was able to return around the pattern and land the aircraft with no injury or substantial damage, although both main tires were blown during the event. Initial throttle quadrant testing indicates a force in excess of 30 pounds against the forward stops is required to cause the out-of-range condition.
4. ECLIPSE ACTION:
After becoming aware of this occurrence, Eclipse immediately notified the NTSB and FAA. An Eclipse Safety Investigation Team was dispatched to the aircraft and is currently participating as a party to the NTSB investigation. In accordance with NTSB rules, we cannot divulge details of the investigation, but we are aggressively working to determine the root cause and implement permanent corrective actions. We are also working on an immediate Temporary Revision (TR) to the Airplane Flight Manual (AFM) to address this situation. In the meantime, we have determined that communicating this issue to operators now is essential in preventing a similar occurrence.
5. RECOMMENDED OPERATOR ACTION:
Eclipse 500 operators should avoid applying excessive force to the throttle levers against the
forward throttle stops.
Oh, how I love to watch a cash arsonist at work.
So Shane, if you knew about the incident of both engines on the Ecliplse getting stuck wide open upon a FADEC failure, then that means Vern knew about it before he made the special offer. Of course, he notified his customers of this incident and the possible AD that might be issued prior to sending in their $650,000.00 non-refundable deposit, right?
I think was all know the answer to that.
By the way, position holders I know say they had almost no time to think about the offer due to the sense of urgency that was created. Now we know why.
Things are a bit darker down ABQ way. The 'Midway Incident', which the thought police at EAC initially attempted to hide, has grown into a full sized crisis for the Vern. Deep questions are being asked about the control systems and some pretty fundamental design issues are being dragged (kicking and screaming) into the open.
I've been tempted in the past to make an entire headline post out of your comments, but felt I was being lazy just for thinking along those lines. However, the quality of some recent posts is just too high to ignore. I also think it right to plot a path through recent events, as recorded on the blog. The selection below is by no means comprehensive, and I apologies in advance for those of you I could not include. My comments, highlighted in black, are intended to provide some (limited) context for those new to the blog.
From 'Dave' June 8, 2008 11:16 AM
I think we've got front row seats to watching something hitting the fan...and that something isn't piles of money reaching the rafters due to Eclipse's profitability. Owners and position owners have got to wonder what Vern is hiding from them given how Vern seeks to silence any talk of problems with the Eclipse.
That just about sums up what the blog thinks of Vern's wasting what little cash remains chasing bloggers through the courts.
From 'Black Tulip' June 8, 2008 2:24 PM
Thank you again Gunner. We've offered to send more lawyers, guns or money, and so far you've said you don't require additonal assets. Please let the bloggers know if we can assist in this noble effort.
Just a reminder that Gunner has stood up to the plate, big time, against nosey egotists who don't like critical oversight. I like the bit about sending more lawyers and, especially, guns...
From me, June 10, 2008 12:46 PM
I have a feeling that it's the little things that will cause meltdown in EAC. I suspect that the little ROUND things with air in them might, just might, be the excuse the FAA need to 'review' their position on the FPJ.
I was of course aware of the Midway Incident when I wrote this. The time stamp is therefore important. Checkout the following, which came from a 'one time' poster.
From 'airjet' June 12, 2008 4:04 AM
2. SUMMARY:
An Eclipse 500 pilot recently experienced a dual engine control failure after applying forward force on the throttle levers resulting in exceeding the design throttle range of operation. This situation resulted in an inability to control engine thrust through normal means. Eclipse is working with the NTSB to investigate this occurrence, but is issuing immediate guidance to Eclipse 500 pilots to avoid excessive forward throttle force against the throttle stops.
3. BACKGROUND:
Following a reported windshear encounter on final approach, an Eclipse 500 pilot applied full throttle using enough force against the forward stops to result in exceeding the design throttle position signal maximum range. This out-of-range position signal for both throttles subsequently activated the ENG CONTROL FAIL CAS message for both engines. Since this fault mode was caused by invalid position signals, the system logic held the engine thrust settings at the last known throttle position, which was maximum.
Following a balked landing, execution of the L(R) ENG CONTROL FAIL checklist, and shutdown of one engine, the pilot was able to return around the pattern and land the aircraft with no injury or substantial damage, although both main tires were blown during the event. Initial throttle quadrant testing indicates a force in excess of 30 pounds against the forward stops is required to cause the out-of-range condition.
4. ECLIPSE ACTION:
After becoming aware of this occurrence, Eclipse immediately notified the NTSB and FAA. An Eclipse Safety Investigation Team was dispatched to the aircraft and is currently participating as a party to the NTSB investigation. In accordance with NTSB rules, we cannot divulge details of the investigation, but we are aggressively working to determine the root cause and implement permanent corrective actions. We are also working on an immediate Temporary Revision (TR) to the Airplane Flight Manual (AFM) to address this situation. In the meantime, we have determined that communicating this issue to operators now is essential in preventing a similar occurrence.
5. RECOMMENDED OPERATOR ACTION:
Eclipse 500 operators should avoid applying excessive force to the throttle levers against the
forward throttle stops.
The lesson here is, read my posts carefully. When I hint at big trouble looming for EAC, the storm clouds are gathering...
'Shadow' on June 12, 2008 12:46 PM
Oh, how I love to watch a cash arsonist at work.
This was in the 'Have they no shame' post, after Vern had pulled the 'DayJet positions' stunt, but before the FAA Emergency AD. It was only a single line, but it summed up the situation perfectly.
'Avidpilot' hit the nail on the head, again, on June 13, 2008 8:37 AM
So Shane, if you knew about the incident of both engines on the Ecliplse getting stuck wide open upon a FADEC failure, then that means Vern knew about it before he made the special offer. Of course, he notified his customers of this incident and the possible AD that might be issued prior to sending in their $650,000.00 non-refundable deposit, right?
I think was all know the answer to that.
By the way, position holders I know say they had almost no time to think about the offer due to the sense of urgency that was created. Now we know why.
So, in just under 3 days, we went from 'blown tires' to 'cash arsonist' to 'emergency AD'. My, how time flies when you are enjoying yourself....
That's a summary of recent, key events. If I have left something critical out, include it in this thread. Let's not lose sight of what we are about here, and keep moving on.
443 comments:
«Oldest ‹Older 401 – 443 of 443airsafety ... :
#An ETIRC trick? #
just consider this :
on the little cartoon , dave provided us with a link ...
there was already a few "stinky" things ...:
anybody living in western europe for some times , would know that Germany has ICE , france has TGV and that the 2 countries combined serve already lots of neighboring countries ...
so a part of the advert-cartoon was " a bit disturbing " concerning the wonder of a Lyon-Firenze in 3 hours ... which would have been known by someone living next door from Germany and France ( Paris-Amsterdam , in train = +/- 2 hours )
on top of it the guy who published the cartoon had an Email address in : "XXXamsterdam@XXX.com" ...
strangely enough , i don't think TOO MANY are having such , i don't think any on the blog has a pseudo in the form "fred from the little place in france where i am now " or "airsafetyman from London heatrow airport custom's office"
so , something is a bit disturbing is being a little bit too precise ...
UNLESS it is to be shown for some not supposed to have a real everyday experience of those facts (trains , distances , length of travel , etc...) to SEE it as "i am from there !"
if you add it up with the "Jet Ready" thing ...
you have a firm supposed to operate from Valienca (Spain) but doesn't have a phone N° , doesn't have a European V.A.T. N° (how are they going to make NON-spanish but E.U. citizens to pay when booking from abroad ?) under that name ("Jet Ready") and they are advertising "references prices " for a comparison which are absolutely hilarious ... ?? ;-)
(remember : Most European have a VERY different drive than Northern americans :
i am always 1000 times happier to share a little very cheap but good wine with one of the gardener
(and the guy is proud to show me he has done better than me in finding a still good one for less )
than to share a 1000 € bottle with someone who just had to pick-up his phone to be sold something he has no clue about !
it is not a judgment , just an observation on one side of ocean , most would spend a lot to pleasure their friends , on the other side the pleasure is on sharing an "good address where you buy cheap and good" )
so yes , it is only a feeling ...
but if asked i would say :
just an other Public Relation Stunt !
the thing i have no idea about : is it meant for US buyers to believe Europeans are hungry to be flown in ??? or for Russians to be lured into a potential market which doesn't even exist ...
i don't know !
Concerning that outfit in England which intends to start commercial op with an N registered Eclipse:
EU-OPS 1.180
(a) An operator will not be granted an AOC, or a variation to an AOC, and that AOC will not remain valid unless:
(1) Aeroplanes operated have a standard Certificate of Airworthiness issued in accordance with Commission Regulation
(EC) No 1702/2003 of 24 September 2003 laying down implementing rules for the airworthiness and environmental certification of aircraft and related products, parts and appliances, as well as for the certification of
design and production rganisations (1) by a Member State.
Since the N-Registered Partial eclipse has a C of A, not issued by a member state, then it can not be operated under an EU-OPS AOC.
EU-OPS enters in force on 16 July 2008.
freedom...
you're really a naughty boy ... ! ;-)
i predict you'll end-up on Vern's contracted killer list if you keep on doing so ...
S***t , you're on it , already !
just NO WAY , a commercial service can be done within European Union with FAA (only) cert. !
just think of insurance ...
to operate the costs of such would be so high as not allowed ...
at the first incident , every agencies would point-out such couldn't exist , so no valid form of insurance whatsoever ...
leaving the operator with a wide open wallet and lots in reach to grab the cash ....
Fred and FJT,
Thanks. I'm sure its a scam. It may be to scam a banker to lending money so Roel can replace the worthless airplanes sitting around on his balance sheet with real Euros by dumping them on a waaaaay overleveraged operator created just for that purpose (EuroDayJet?), or to try and apply pressure to the EU for EASA certification. Maybe both. How's the factory coming, Roel?
Asm ...:
#to try and apply pressure to the EU for EASA certification#
have you ever tried such move ?
because you see , one of the problem with the E.U. thing is that everybody is always watching everybody else , for the nasty pleasure of nagging a "i told you so" if things go wrong ...
so the result is a politic of consensus or unanimity ...
look at what did happen in Mr shane's country ...
The vast majority of europeans are NOT against the European Idea , just completely fed-up of the peoples , completely disconnected from reality , which are making the rules , or try to implement them ...!
in the case of the FPJ , to have someone able to "push or pressure" that very person has to be spotless in the eyes of most , has to have tons of friends in each representation and has to be sure of "what he is actually selling" ...
in the case of roel , he had already some "friction" with the Belgium state , with the Dutch state and with the European subsides system (in the time of "talking software")
making it quite unlikely for him to get a pass ...
the product is NOT european ...but american ... which is something to be seen by some here as an other reason on the why of the "not" !
(i'm NOT saying it's any clever , fair or right!)
If this US-made product is supposed to be build in Russia = then the deal is already dead ! most in E.U. (unfortunately) bear in mind that Russian product CANNOT be good ... (once again , it's not fair or clever , we want their money ,gaz and oil but that's about all)
so all of this make it :
EASA could be forced in some kind of politician's decision , but to be reached safely it has to "smuggled" or taken with a vast majority ...
Politicians will base their decision on EASA report ...
like this they protect each other of having to bear an eventual responsibility !
so as for a change into Easa point of view , without what they ask to be done BEFORE they consider any changes =
VERY unlikely !
##(i'm NOT saying it's any clever , fair or right!)##
in fact it would be VERY UNFAIR ...
all others would have to suffer with strict ruling ...
and his High Highness Vern would be treated differently ?
No Way !
Here's a couple snapshots of Eclipse's claims of TCO:
http://www.eclipseaviation.com/files/pdf/Economics.pdf
http://www.aerofox.com.br/Eclipse_Comparacao.pdf
There was a thread a while back about how nothing good could come from Eclipse taking government funding to develop new technology for aircraft.
Here's an article on some very disruptive technology our security minded government would like to deploy which would allow them to control vehicles.
Pentagon wants to install kill switches in aircraft
It isn't hard to imagine Eclipse applying for a grant to implement such a system on their aircraft.
They've already got the datalink system in place.
It isn't hard to imagine Eclipse applying for a grant to implement such a system on their aircraft.
Also from the article it mentions lasers for stopping people. Now I can see Vern selling sharks with frigging lasers attached to their heads and Roel as Number 2:
The Directorate is also looking for new ways to stop people. One proposed project involves studying "thermal laser effects for non-lethal application." Research, the Directorate notes, should "focus on understanding reversible health effects, pulsing methods, and effectiveness through clothing."
Actually here's Vern and Roel talking about it and complications involved:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bh7bYNAHXxw
Cirrus just rolled out their jet'
I think they have it right. to seriously carry people you really need two engines and lots of power to get to altitude fast. The people content with one engine as in the TBM 800 etc will be happy with one jet. Also the move up from a single engine piston crowd with money will be happy with a jet that is fast but is limited to 25 to 29,000 ft. as the single engine Turboprops mostly are
The idea of designing it to be efficient at low altitudes is key. and making it simple with simple emergency procedures that can be easily done by a low time pilot is a real plus.
I Think the EA400 single is going to be beat out by cirrus and Diamond.
The E400 will be lucky to defy gravity (in any real numbers) - and will suck the resources out of the E500 - providing the ultimate death certificate.
(IMHO)
The E400 will be lucky to defy gravity (in any real numbers) - and will suck the resources out of the E500 - providing the ultimate death certificate.
That statement is literally true about the Frankenplane. The Frankenplane is built off the body parts of the FPJ that have sawed off, bent and stitched together. The Frankenplane is Vern's big joke on his customers sellling the single-engine four seater for nearly twice as much as the original price for the twin-engine six seater.
Flight center said ... Case closed
You know that the Cirrus change over to Garmins and their G3/STS conversion held up Q4 deliveries as an anomaly, right? In fact, that Cirrus drop explains a huge part of the piston shipment decline. Watch Q2 and lets talk (though Cirrus is still not firing on all cylinders).
As for downsizing cars, you guys convinced me, I'm ditching the Mercedes and picking up Tata Motors car on Monday. So now, my neighbors can admire my social responsibility and I'll be helping out a poor country (India) as well.
Take a look at my new Tata Motors ride:
Tata Motors XFSC
FJM said... EU-OPS enters in force on 16 July 2008.
And all previous certificates get grandfathered in. So if they already have the certificate they are golden. Also, the regulation just stated that there has to be a COA in accordance with EU/EC rules - it does not mean it has to be an EU/EC CoA, though it probably means that.
Regardless, lets see what happens.
baron,
gotta love the snarcasm...
have a great weekend...
Take a look at my new Tata Motors ride
9 out of 10 guys like tatas.
I like tatas
Me too !
I thought Jaguars were made in England, painted dark green, and broke down a lot. Else, what's the point? Hey, Maybe if you painted an Eclipse 500 British Racing Green, bolted the leaping cat doo-dad on the nose in front of the windscreen, you could sell the damn things to Jaguar owners! They are very used to things not working - especially the electrical bits!
They tried the Jaguar thing over at Beechcraft, remember?
King Airs, Barons and Bonanzas...
That's a dinosaur idea. No one at Eclipse would do something like that...
http://billpridemore.com/flyingmachineBeech.php
airsafetyman said...
I thought Jaguars were made in England, painted dark green, and broke down a lot. Else, what's the point?
They still are made in England, but no longer break a lot. having spent a fortune fixing Jaguar, Ford run out of money and hs to sell to Tata for penies on the dollar. Thankfully, Mr Tata (like Ford to their credit) are leaving the Jaguar designers and engineers alone.
Seriously guys, you have to drive the new XF Supercharged. I can't wait to get mine - I clocked 4.8s 0-60 with a wide-eyed (and good looking I must say) dales rep in the passenger seat - 420HP and about the same for torque - it is trully a nice ride.
Next year Jaguar will unveil the new XJ and the year after the revised XK. ALL, and I mean ALL Jaguars sold in the US will have V8s either 4.2 or 5.0 normally apirated or supercharges - the suppercharged ones at 100HP/liter.
They will finaly be giving the Germans a mini run for their money.
I just hope I get less tickets than on the present car. Yesterday I was the luckiest driver on the road. Driving at exactly twice the speed limit (and distracted), didn't notice the nice police cruiser behind me. Got pull over, asked "what the heck" by a stern policewoman, she gets my license, runs the plates, comes running back, returns my license, says "slow down sir". No ticket, no warning. wow. I was floored.
Anyway, back to aviation, it is good to see Cirrus make progress on their single engine Jet and Eclipse making progress on their FJ33s for Cirrus and Diamond.
We need three things to make personal jets a vibrant market:
1 - SEJ airframe competition D-Jet, Cirrus, hopefully (some day) the E400.
2 - Small turbofan competition (PW600s vd FJ33s).
3 - [climb on soapbox] FAA to come to their senses and remove the stupid ATP-standard type rating requirements for sub-6000lbs MTOW modern SE jets).
Baron95,
You are right that Cirrus isn't hitting on all cylinders. It is no surprise that they decided to install a new VP Sales. You don't make moves like that if you are happy with the sales team's performance and you are selling everything you can make. Business is down a lot more than they would like.
So let's review your arguments.
You said the increase in oil prices has gone largely unnoticed.
I said that overall piston sales were down 28%.
You said, the only piston aircraft manufacturers worth looking at were the new ones (Cirrus, Columbia and Diamond) and that Cirrus was selling everything they could build.
So I posted the numbers for Cirrus, Columbia and Diamond. What did they show? Significantly lower sales numbers Q407 to Q108. 24% lower.
Then you complained that comparing Q407 to Q108 wasn't fair, that we should look at the numbers adjusted for seasonality.
So I posted the numbers adjusted for seasonality. What do they show? Significantly lower sales numbers Q108 vs Q107. 37% lower.
Now you say that we should take Cirrus out of the mix, as they had some unusual production issues... (Remember you were the one who originally said we should look at Cirrus.)
So going along with you one more time, let's take Cirrus out of the mix.
Piston Singles Q107 - 410 (no Cirrus)
Piston Singles Q108 - 323 (no Cirrus)
Those numbers are down 21%.
The data just doesn't support your contention that piston aircraft sales are unaffected by the recent rapid rise in fuel prices.
We need three things to make personal jets a vibrant market
I think what Vern said about Slate will also apply with Eclipse...he arrived 10 years too early. I think much of this will be resolved with technology progressing. Vern's statements that the technology was already here and he had it were wrong. However, due to Eclipse (particularly if there's fatalities with any Eclipse), I could foresee that when the time comes it will be postponed due to both the manufacturers and the aviation buyers feeling once bitten twice shy. Given a long enough timeline most anything comes down in price and increases in performance - such as computers.
Baron , flight ...
this is a small example of Unnoticed Oil raising price ...
it is coming from Kommersant (russian Newspaper )
#Russian Airlines Feel Fuel Costs
Russian airlines are beginning to count the cost of rising fuel prices. Aeroflot, Russia's largest airline, has announced that it expected narrower profits this year, in spite of an 8-10 percent fare hike (5-6 percent had been originally planned). Aeroflot's competitors are also planning fare increases and profit decreases.#
so if a country that happen to be the 2nd world exporter is starting to "feel the difference" ...
i don't know how anyone can claim it is unnoticed ...!
an other point which is even more scary :
the guy i was referring to said what he said in the context of a talk about "how to fight inflation" ...
the core of the talk was : how many percent of GDP progress should the russians give-up in order to fight their own inflation ... (in modern economy , it's called the "sacrifice ratio" quite self-explanatory ! )
that's the reason why this chum stated that in between suffering from inflation inside the country and exporting it to curb it home , the russians have a very simple way of doing it and won't think twice about it ...
(which is perfectly fair , why should they care ?)
since they are the 2nd world exporter , i am not going to insult you in drawing the conclusions for you , myself !!
i wouldn't call that scary ... i would call it F****G scary ... !!!
baron :
NO , whatever EA500 has got as cert . CoA and the like , it won't be "grandfathered" if not decided DIRECTLY by EASA ...
otherwise , i would suggest EASA to be closed down , if they make regulations that can be avoided by any schmuck with a negative IQ (yes Vern , it's you !)
on top of that , the price difference now form an EA500 and a Mustang , is what 600.000 $ ...
almost nothing if you have a "brilliant idea" want to work it out and are sure it is going to be a success ...
something EAC will not be , a success as Air-taxi in European Union ...
not with Vern's rules !
"They tried the Jaguar thing over at Beechcraft, remember?"
You are right, Flightcenter, thanks for reminding me. Just trying to get a little Euro-cache to rub off on the Eclipse. MG has gone to China, so what can you do? Guess Roel and the Vernster could team up with Tremblant in Russia. Would be a good fit too, especially if they could bring in Lucas to do the electrics.
or Illyushin...they like aircraft that take a while to get going as in this classic...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aWtdtuspnoM
Hi Baron,
Where does it say that existing certificates will be grandfathered? The reason for this paragraph is the commission next attempt at getting rid of the old CIS aircraft still operating in the new member states. Aircraft types which were never validated in the west.
They are trying hard enough to get rid of old problems. Anything new without an EASA certification or validation has limited chances (depending on how well the member state in question inforces EU-OPS).
There are rumors floating around European aviation that the commission is going to take steps to stop the (ab)use of the FAA system for A/C owned and permanently stationed in Europe by Europeans.
It has become common for people to avoid the European rules by transferring ownership to a US trust, and having the trust register the A/C in the US, knowing full well that the FAA does little enforcement to ensure adherence to operating and airspace requirements in foreign countries.
Flightcenter said... The data just doesn't support your contention that piston aircraft sales are unaffected by the recent rapid rise in fuel prices.
Hi Flightcenter - thanks for researching and posting the actual numbers. I'm not trying to argue that piston sales are not down. I'm trying to make the point that you can't assume they are down because of fuel prices.
The US economy is faltering, stock market is way down, housing prices collapsed, credit is very, very tough to obtain. Are you sure these things have no effect on piston sales?
Also, how do you explain that Biz Jet sales are up 40%? Fuel prices are more a concern to jets than piston planes that fly 50-100 hrs/year.
I can't tell you all the reasons why piston sales are down in 1Q/08. But it is too simplistic to say it is all due to high fuel prices.
Big engine car sales UP (breaking records). Biz Jet sales UP (breking records). Airliner sales UP (breaking records). Turboprop sales UP. Housing, stock, credit markets DOWN. Piston sales DOWN.
Where is the direct correlation between piston sales and fuel prices? There is none!
BUY A MUSTANG it’s a real VLJ!
After I left ECLIPSE last year to work in ENGLAND on the EURO VLG. I was loving it over there but had to come back after my 6 months was up. When I cam back my former ECLIPSE Supervisor was back working for the DINASORS at Cessna where he started. He asked me to come help him at Cessna in Independence Kansas, as one of there Mustangs that was being delivered to Europe had a mishap. Seems that one of the painters while painting the REG #’s on the plane, failed to remove the tape off the vent port. OHHHH OOOO! THE STORY GOES: Wile the pilot took off and was flying for a wile, it started acting strange in flight. And he looked out at the wing and saw a part of the wing buckling in. EEWWW. So it made an emergency landing in Ohio. As some of you might know, the Mustang wing is ALL ONE PIECE. This made for an easy switch out as myself and 2 others went out to Ohio and switched the wing out, after the wing was trucked up to us. My friend and Ex Supervisor wanted me to stay at Cessna, but I missed my house in ABQ and went back. Needless to say you all know where I ended up after that. But after being a Cessna and seeing the Kids work on the Mustang , I was impressed with the talent. Avg age on the line is 23 and most of the older employees stayed on the Cessna 172 line. The Mustang itself is pretty impressive both in the way its Mfgd and the ease of maintenance. AND THEY USE SOLID RIVETS not the cheesy Huc Clinch rivets. I say I came back to ABQ because I missed my house, but it was more so because I missed my Girlfriend. BEHOLD THE POWER OF P***Y
Check out this video, some people have way too much fun.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LeTHAHGgZzA
20 YM
Interesting article in the July 2008 issue of Flying - "Torrid Affair with a VLJ". Ken Wolf presents a good comparison of the Eclipse 500 vs. his MU-2 turboprop.
The prices of the VLJs will not come down in the present world. The prices they are now sold at is reasonable at volumes with the Total Available Market (TAM) of 1000 to 2000 per year The only way the prices will come down is if the engine costs drop. There was a hope when the Russians came into the turboprop and jet engine business that this would happen. However it did not happen. Maybe Honda will do it
The present engine makers, because of certification costs and history have a lock on the market and because they all went to the same MBA school they do not need to talk to each other to set their prices the same.
in this manufacturing environment the costs of a complex system are very volume dependent.
I have seen this happen in many technologies. the only reason chips are low in cost is that the basic materials are very cheap and the market for low cost items is very large. There is only a specific TAM available at each price point as there are only a specific # of people that can afford the price at any price point.
The other major problem is that no matter what you say, flying an airplane today takes skill. this automatically raises the ante as this limits those who can fly an airplane to a much smaller number. The only way for the masses to really use airplanes will be when the airplane is totally controlled by an autopilot so that all you do is tell it where to go and it gets there. then the TAM will be much larger.
in addition when you can do this with a 4 to 6 place all weather airplane that costs $200,000 or so and is substantially faster than a car, say an average speed of 200+ knots the TAM will increase dramatically to perhaps 1,000,000 per year
As far as the present VLJ market, If the engine technology would reduce in cost to perhaps less than $100,000 each for a jet engine with 2000 lb thrust instead of $250,000 or so this would reduce the price of existing concepts to probably 50 % of the present price and increase the TAM to maybe 5,000 per year at a price of $1,000,000for a twin engine jet and perhaps $600,000 for a single engine.
Does that sound like the plan for the origional E500? The minute Vern found out that he could not get the engines he needed for the E500 for $50,000 or so he was dead in the water.
It is a question of the chicken or the egg. with new low cost engines you can get the volume to profitably build the airplane in the numbers you need. with out the market you can't afford to build the engines at the low price.
The old saying is true. all aircraft developments are driven by new, better propulsion technology.
The prices of the VLJs will not come down in the present world.
Don't be so sure about that.
We just narrowly avoided not one, but two full-blown banking crises this year alone. The Fed doesn't have enough money to continue to exchange US dollars for worthless derivatives and asset-backed securities. When the Fed burns through their cash (i.e. 300 billion left out of the 1 trillion they originally had to throw at this 800 TRILLION DOLLAR problem), things could get interesting.
In a banking crisis, everything will fall in price - VLJ's, cars, homes, gold, oil, corn, you name it. Worldwide.
Look at the stock charts of all major banks - Citibank, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, etc. All are hitting new lows just this week. That means their internals are bad and getting worse. The Dow & S&P are at triple bottoms and likely to fall through support. We are closer to a banking panic than most people realize.
The Feds are already talking about nationalizing our largest banks as a "Plan B", just like Norway and England did recently. Google the words Fed, Nordic, Bank, Nationalization and you'll understand what is going on. They are no better equipped to handle this problem than they were Katrina.
Not saying it will happen, but "never say never".
[perhaps this should go on another thread]
Hi folks, I’m not sure if (all) of this info has been posted before, but here is a summary of a long Aviation Week and Space Technology piece on Eclipse: “Double Eclipse: A second product and higher prices show VLJ maker is growing up” – AW&ST June 9 issue.
It is a generally upbeat report on Eclipse with several direct quotes from Vern and Mike Press that I haven’t seen anywhere else. As I type this at FL 330 (no, I am not piloting), I hope the news is still relevant to the discussion, when I finally post it.
1 – Vern: “We expect to produce 350-400 EA500s in 2008 but aiming to two a day”. “We are resetting the break even so we don’t continue to fund the losses”.
2 – Press: Price hikes take effect after the 500th aircraft.
3 – AW: Aircraft on order have been sold at various prices. Except for customers within six months of delivery, most customers will see a price increase of approximately $450K.
4 – Vern: Hope to begin seeing the benefits on the price increase in early 2009, but won’t reap the full benefits till late 2009.
5 – Vern: US Market is shifting towards single engine jets. “Domestic order intake of the EA500 is definitely declining, but is more than offset by increases in the foreign order intake rate”. European certification is in the final stages.
6 – Press: Agrees tat EA500 demand is shifting overseas. “The US market is oversold. The rest of the world has been more conservative, and is waiting to see it certificated and operating in Europe”.
7 – Press: “surprised” by the scale of the increase, but thinks it is still a good value.
8 – Vern: Initial development of the 400 will be funded from customer deposit. “When we become cash flow positive we’ll fund it internally. “We are going to do the 400 a little differently, a little bit more conservatively and a bit more serial in nature. We are going to spend a lot more time in wind tunnel testing, trade analyses and design optimization”.
9 – AWST: Engine is PW615F from Mustang flat rated to 1,200 lb. Modified fuel metering to use same FADEC.
10 – Vern: eclipse uses a stepper motor FMU, which provides a “fail-fixed “capability insuring that thrust does not spool back to idle if there is a FADEC failure.
11 – AW: Eclipse plans to build aluminum pressure vessel in house using FSW and subcontract the composite empennage to risk sharing partner.
[Baron: sorry for the lengthy post, but I thought it would be valuable to capture all these in one post for discussion]
AESTguy said...
The prices they are now sold at is reasonable at volumes with the Total Available Market (TAM) of 1000 to 2000 per year As far as the present VLJ market, If the engine technology would reduce in cost to perhaps less than $100,000 each for a jet engine with 2000 lb thrust instead of $250,000 or so ...
The old saying is true. all aircraft developments are driven by new, better propulsion technology.
Good observations AESTguy - I enjoyed your post. You are very right that new propulsion technology is the key.
The B787 airframe advances woud not see the light of the day if it were not for the GEnx/Trent 1000huge SFC improvements. The 737 replacement study has been cancelled because Boeing can not have access to new engines that make the same gains in the narrowbody market.
Just note that even $250K for a fan jet would be a breakthrough. My best guess is that Eclipse is paying about $375K give or take for the PWC610 at their high volume predicted rate of 600+/year. Most likely they are paying somewhere above $400K now. And that is for a sub 1,000 lbs-class engine.
Just didn't want readers to get the impression that 2,000-lbs turbofans can be had today for "$250K or so" as you implied.
Incidentally, the often mentioned price of a Thierlert 2.0 aerodiesel engine today is over $100K. That is for a piston engine!!!
So yes. We have seen great advancements in avionics in the past 10 years. We have seen minor advancements in airframe in the past 10 years. And we have seen some great advances in large turbofans (GE90, GEnx, Trent 800, Trent 1000, these can now be on wing for 20,000+ hours and have incredible SFC). But unfortunatelly, fan jet prices are going higher and higher. There trully in no engnie in the foreseable future that will break down the price barriers.
My *HOPE* is that the US millitary (particularly the new airforce leadership) love affair with UAC/UCAV (particullarly for ISR), will finnaly dive down the costs of 1,000-lbs class turbofans.
Note: UAVs/UCAVs engines have different requirments than cruise missile engines (in case someone decides to say this was tried before with Williams). UAVs/UCAVs have requirements for long time on station therefore good SFC, long operating cycles, climbs/descents, uncomplicated startup/spooldown sequences, multiple opperating altitudes, and longevity. Lower cost is a key design parameter. So - that is the personal turbine market best hope IMHO.
Timeframe: 10 years to cheaper reliable engines, another 10 for airframes designend around then.
"We are going to spend a lot more time in wind tunnel testing, trade analyses and design optimization”."
This is the silliest thing I've heard yet, except the price increase of course.
Last time, they had people working for 10 years... they had all the time in the world to get it right... this is total BS.
Also, if they were really changing their ways, they would have sold off specs and pictures, and foregone the plastic flying mock up.
I do not see this going anywhere.
I think one of the funniest things to watch in this industry and Eclipse in particular, is the facination with "smaller".
I do not believe the lower cost engines will be smaller or lower thrust. Smaller engines are harder to make, and the tolerances make efficiency tougher, the smaller you go.
When I see people saying the engines need to be smaller and therefore less expensive, I scratch my head.
No one needs a smaller plane, no one needs an engine with the inherent operability and reliability issues that goes hand in hand with "smaller".
The least expensive form of air transport is airline... ask yourself why?
Then shift your thinking to an air taxi (still need professional pilots... so the cost and marketsize are to an extent driven by this) that is more like an airliner... and you might have a large market.
I think it will require more seats and it will probably be bgger... at least I would ask the question "Why not" bigger... smaller is not cheaper.
airtaximan said...
When I see people saying the engines need to be smaller and therefore less expensive, I scratch my head.
I agree there AT. As a matter of fact, that is why I am so gang-ho on single-engine jets. You can hang a bigger sized engine, (instead of two smaller ones), which, as you point out, will be less expensive and have better SFC for the same technology generation.
One 4,000 lbs FJ44 is better than 2 FJ33 2,000 lbs engine. And one FJ33 2,000 lbs is better than 2 1,000 lbs FJ22s (if they were buit).
Single engine planes will dominate personal flying.
Look at the payload/range/performance of the TBM 850G, PC12NG vs the King Air 90/200. No contest even after Beech scrambled to up the power and upgrade the pannel in the past 2 years on both.
When those bennefits are brought to the fanjet market it will be equally as dramatic.
Lets just hope that Piper Jet, D-Jet, Cirrus Jet, E400, etc (at least 3 of those)actually amount to something to prove the market.
8 – Vern: Initial development of the 400 will be funded from customer deposit. “When we become cash flow positive we’ll fund it internally. “We are going to do the 400 a little differently, a little bit more conservatively and a bit more serial in nature. We are going to spend a lot more time in wind tunnel testing, trade analyses and design optimization”.
So those who Vern got $150K out of are unsecured creditors potentially for vaporware. Its like Vern doesn't want Eclipse to be profitable - if there's any hope of profitability, he's gotta spend that money on the new new thing. Vern simply doesn't have the mindset to be CEO of a mature manufacturing company...between his ego, his spendthrift ways and his inability to focus, it just burns money away. Vern said that in 2009 Eclipse had to be profitable, yet he's already found a new way to burn through that money. Then again, perhaps he'll be using the Frankenjet development as an excuse for Eclipse's continued poor financial performance in 2009...just tweak the allocated charges and perform various other accounting tricks and he can fool investors who don't take a close enough peak at the numbers. Vern is already laying the groundworks both for the Frankenjet being vaporware (customers are paying for development now and full funding may never materialize) and for extending out Eclipse performing poorly financially indefinitely (he needs even more time in R&D on the Frankenjet than on the FPJ and the Frankenjet development costs are the reason why Eclipse isn't profitable).
baron...
this is hilarious , if you were asking yourself "What is I.B.E" you have such a marvelous example , it looks handcrafted by some kind of genius ...
the post from Vern is so full of it and so weird ...
may be one day , someone will have to say to His Highness "no one believes the crap getting out of your mouth ...!"
is he the guru of some kind of sect ? sounds like ...
1°# 400 EA500 in 2008 #
= now i understand WHY the need for EA400 , after 2008 not anything anymore to do ...
I would say IF they make 400 in 2008 , then there is NO NEED to keep the light turned-on in 2009 , and therefor NO NEED to build a plant anywhere ...
2° #Press: Price hikes take effect after the 500th aircraft.#
= KEEP THE PINK GLASSES ON ..., OFF COURSE it is not related with the fact i sell them ... nor with the fact that i have positions to sell myself = only one to do it = make others to believe the Number 500 of the FPJ will exist one day anywhere else than in the mind of his "father" ...
3°
=this start to be real weird : HOW many are in queuing for putting their "6 months before delivery" ?
i would venture into speculations = NONE ! or so little , it is hardly noticeable ...
the same than to say a market where price goes up is a good market ...
yes , in theories ... but :
if i have a piece of shit , that i cannot sell for 1.000.000 , because no one want to buy it and it's not even finished ...
i can raise the price to 2.000.000 and then claim to the world that the hike is following some tensions on the offers/deliveries market , so a "good" product too many want to buy make it upward in selling value ...
only one problem , this is TOTALLY ARTIFICIAL , a bit like the US (speculation/bullish)economy in the last few years ...
to the one believing any of those propositions as :
Oil price is hardly noticeable !
( yes ,Oil is still one of the cheapest energy source , but the problem is not really the end of Oil but the END of CHEAP OIL !)
One day EA500 will reach the 500 th
benchmark !
(actually , not even sure the order book is this fat ...)
EAC will make into future !
(where future is :end of 2008)
i would advice Brain Surgery , but since they seems to have water instead in the skull , not really sure that brain transplant is actually available ...
4°
= forget what i just said about profitability ...
i swear we are making profit the new price ...
not now ...
next year ...the profits !
5°
US market shift to "single engine" curiously enough , we happen to make a new bird as such ...
is it a new iteration of :
"the product create the market !"
(if you work in marketing you are ONLY supposed to believe this , in order to have gullible to follow you !)
6° Forget all i said in previous N° ... the US market is oversold ... ! (?)
i recognize we misunderstood the shape of what peoples have in minds/desires ...
therefor , we should have started the whole thing ABROAD , but we had to burn your money first ...
Operating and certified in Europe ... :
strangely enough every morning when i wake-up , i feel like a billionaire ... i put one foot on ground , cruel reality is still around ...
WHY ME ? WHY such a cruel world ...!
on top of that , when my fantasies are reported to be true by someone who has his shirt sold-out to the thing , everybody should take that as 24 Carat Golden Truth ...
7°
= despite what i said in previous N° , it is still crucial that i take your money to develop the new product ...
off-course , i'll take to Justice court ANYONE pointing out the fact that i promised to build the 400 on internal funds , but that i wrote as well THERE ISN'T ANY INTERNAL FUNDS UNTIL END 2009 ...!
and i'll send contract hitman on anyone suggesting , EAC should WAIT to develop the new bird to have reach profitability , instead of developing (once again) on someone else money ...
9°
= We took something working , added a little bit of DISRUPTIVE ...
the result is : we fuck it up ! as usual ...
10°
= We added even more disruptive into this ....
it is called :
PARACHUTE !
(who ever suggest it was invented by Leonardo Da Vinci will suffer the same penalty that in N°9 !)
11°
since even us are not believing will find enough gullible this time ...
we are actively looking for an industrial partner , who will be interested in :
a) send us all cash we ask for , on a single phone call
b) put the hands in the dirt for us
c) leave us with the glamor and spotlights , IF any good results ...
d) won't be too disappointed when we will throw them under a bus at the first "broutille"
(i know it's french word , but this way it's easier to fool americans ...and since we are going "International" ...!)
this was a "report" from the toilets of Eclipse Aviation Corp.
2503 Clark Carr Loop SE , where someone (allegedly Vern the magnificent) has locked-up himself while talking to the press , or something more or less like press ... or someone saying he is the press ... or someone typing on his computer in Waga-Waga (Papouasia)...!
New post up.
I hope it was worth the wait, but since it has the only direct quotes from the pilot of the 'Midway Incident', I think it was...
Shane
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