Sunday, June 8, 2008

The Fan Club get restive

Now that the judge has stayed our ‘motion to quash’ until the first of August, I think it’s time to review what Vern’s fan club are thinking. Clearly, to be a fully paid up member you need to have demonstrated below average intelligence and have a lot of cash lying around that you are willing to blow. Putting aside these obvious qualifications as future winner of the coveted Darwin Award, you must also believe Vern's fairy tales.

So, what have this merry band of owners/position holders been saying to each other since Vernicius the First put his hand in their pockets for the Con Jet? For a change, the ‘fan club’(his term, not mine) reacted poorly. It would appear that many have decided to cut their losses and run. They can of course now do this, as the price increase triggers a ‘refund event’, which is probably why Vern waited so long before he finally did the logical thing. The next group are prepared to wait for the Fisher Price Jet which MIGHT come their way, even at the higher price announced last week. Seems a bird in the hand is still worth more than two in the bush. Very few, if any, want to wait another 3 years (probably more) for the Con Jet. They are also very miffed that you can’t get anyone from ‘Customer Care’ to talk to once you’ve decided you want your money back. A desire to become an ex customer will do that to you every time….

You will be glad to hear that some of ‘them’ are finally convinced that ‘we’ were right. Even our old dentist friend thinks that The Great Raburn is dumping on his long suffering supporters. I can also confirm that several owners and position holders have joined us in another way. Lawyers are being hired all over the place, with EAC as the target. Seems that Vern going after us might have given his 'fans' similar ideas....

Mike Press, on the other hand, is having a field day. Positions, which have early serial numbers are changing hands because of the price increase. Sort of a ‘dead cat bounce’ I suppose. Although the blog has always maintained that a price increase was one of the few sensible things Mr. Raburn could do, he can’t do it again in the short term. EAC needs cash, and lots of it, to survive. Informed speculation has it that The Duke of New Mexico has indeed managed to find more money from somewhere in the recent past. If true, I would be most interested to hear the detail, to the usual address.

Tires are becoming a really, really big pain. An FPJ with three passengers, along with the poor pilot, had an incident this week in Midway. Loosing one tire on touchdown is, how shall we say, interesting. Blowing two is bound to raise the excitement level a notch or three, especially in such a small cabin. Nothing too special, one would think, with the number of tires your average FPJ will chew through. However, it appears the thought police in EAC have issued strict instructions that NO communications take place with the outside world on this subject. When you see reactions like this from a company, to what is a pretty standard event (OK, I‘m sure that pilot was unimpressed) you begin to suspect there is ‘no smoke without fire’. Why try to hush up something, unless there is more going on?

On a practical note, I think Gunner, and his excellent lawyer Norman, deserve our gratitude for their work on our collective behalf. However, I am coming around to the view that Gunner should not be left alone in supporting this financial burden and I would, on behalf of the blog, welcome offers of assistance. Helpful suggestions to the usual address, eclipsecriticng@gmail.com.

Finally, as the summer (at least here in the northern hemisphere) moves towards the longest day I would like to wish you all pleasant weather, good flying and plenty of ‘quality time’ with your families.

282 comments:

1 – 200 of 282   Newer›   Newest»
Dave said...

Shane, I agree with your post other than I wouldn't insult the EA500 owners and position holders. I'd rather have them on our side. I do sympathize with them as Vern has been the one to repeatedly take advantage of them and extort them. I don't think most of the owners know as much about Eclipse as we do and we should encourage owners and potential owners to particpate here and be welcome. It's also a good way of finding out what's going on since Eclipse wants to keep the bad news secret even though owners have a right to talk about their experience.

Gunner said...

A great summary as to the State of the Onion, Shane. Thanks much for keeping the topics fresh.

On the legal front, I was hoping to see a first hand report on Al Petrofsky's site regarding Friday's hearing. As that hasn't yet been posted, let me clarify what we can tell y'all of the progress on the legal front thus far:

The number of targeted Bloggers has been cut by Eclipse to 14 from 29. I will post that list as soon as I receive it, but I suspect it'll match the 14 (sans Shane) mentioned in Vern's Declaration.

I am not happy about this particular twist, as it appears an attempt at a "Do-Over". If Eclipse, true to form, failed to get it right the first damned time, I'd have hoped the Court would have thrown the entire complaint out. After all, "do-overs" have no place in court proceedings or aircraft manufacture...are you listening, Vern? No, I didn't think so.

Without need to spin the hearing, however, it very much went our way, though not as far as we might have hoped. Judge Manoukian, citing the precedent of the Krinsky case, made it clear that this subpoena request was quite premature. As we had never received a copy of the sealed NM case, there was a real question as to whether any subpoena could be considered in the first place.

As a result, we have received a copy of the NM complaint and are considering our options in New Mexico and California, thanks to the Judge leaving us that option as to venue for pursuit.

Finally, Eclipse attorneys have committed to providing us "the universe of" suspect posts around which they would hope to "work something out".

If their choice of suspect posts looks anything like what Vern Raburn chose for his Declaration, they have my deepest sympathies.

Now back to your regularly scheduled program.
Gunner

eclipso said...

Gunner,
As always, a heart felt thanks to you and Norman. Whatever we can do to help, let us know.This really is a story of which books and movies are made. To all on the blog...thanks for all the input and tenacity to see it through. I will be through ABQ in three weeks and at least take a look on the ramp...

Dave said...

I am not happy about this particular twist, as it appears an attempt at a "Do-Over". If Eclipse, true to form, failed to get it right the first damned time, I'd have hoped the Court would have thrown the entire complaint out. After all, "do-overs" have no place in court proceedings or aircraft manufacture...are you listening, Vern? No, I didn't think so.

My experience from having following the SCO cases is that a business can keep litigation going if its willing to spend enough. Perhaps Vern's plan on the litigation front is to run up the legal bill and then file for BK and leave the junior lawyer on the case blowing in the wind. I expect this case will be very enternaining thanks to Vern. Isn't Eclipse putting themselves at risk because they are officially on notice of actively reading the board and there are now specific citations showing where the information was publicly revealed, so Eclipse could lose a harassment/SLAPP/malicious prosecution countersuit? I guess Vern hopes to wipe that out in BK too so that he can SLAPP away without paying his lawyer or those that he tried to SLAPP.

Dave said...

Here's an article about Eclipse 500 safety:
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/07_31/b4044416.htm
Aren't some of the very things that Eclipse supposedly designed around being now reported as problems?

Shane Price said...

Dave,

It was not my intention to insult, more to provoke.

Part of me was being cheeky, part trying to get some of those who email me to take part.

The 'Darwin Award' idea was to alert those same people to the safety of an aircraft that eats its' tires.

Perhaps one of the Faithful will step forward with opinions and get a dialogue going.

What is really interesting is the amount of email that hits the blog inbox from all sorts of people. I should be getting commission from a certain legal firm in ABQ, given the number of times I've passed on their details to people seeking legal advice....

Shane

Dave said...

What is really interesting is the amount of email that hits the blog inbox from all sorts of people. I should be getting commission from a certain legal firm in ABQ, given the number of times I've passed on their details to people seeking legal advice....

I think we've got front row seats to watching something hitting the fan...and that something isn't piles of money reaching the rafters due to Eclipse's profitability. Owners and position owners have got to wonder what Vern is hiding from them given how Vern seeks to silence any talk of problems with the Eclipse.

baron95 said...

Troglodyte said ... I would be interested in learning why some on the blog have suggested that the V-tail configuration has inherent stability and control issues, or did I misunderstand?


Welcome to the blog, Troglodyte. There is nothing inherently wrong with V-tails, however it does present some challenges to designers:

1 - On a conventional tail feather's design, if you need a bit more directional stability or ruther authority you make the vert stabilizer/ruder longer and you are done. similarly if you need more longitudinal stability or pitch authority (e.g. by increasing MTOW or lengthing a plane) you incread the horizontal stabilizer. One action is fairly independent of the other. On a V-tail design they are intertwined. It is harder to change one parameter without changing the other.

2 - Autopilot control/servos become more involved for some of the same reasons above. A good yaw damper on a V-tail is quite a challange, for instance.

3 - The loads on the V-tail are quite complex. For example, certification requires showing that the tail can withstand design limits when both pitch and yaw forces are applied.

4 - The design is less well understood, models are less well developed and it can potentially suffer from severe interference at high angles of attack. This is particularly true for a FL410 regimen - no one has done scientific tests there on a v-tail that I am aware of.

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...
Between Heinkel, the Hortons, Arado, Junkers, Daimler-Benz, BMW, Willie Messerschmidt (Bayerische Flugzeukwerke), and Kurt Tank (Focke-Wulf) there is truly very little new under the sun in the last 60 years, including early composites, rocket planes, swept and variable sweep wings, flying wing jet bomber designs, v-tail designs, forward sweep, pod mounted jet engines, and much more.


This is all very true, but it was all also done by trial and error, not scientifically and anyalitically. For example, no one knew why a flying tail allowed for better control in the transonic regimen when they tried it in the X-1. As a result, all of the designs you cited worked, but none of them was optimized.

There is no doubt that a V-tail jet can be built without CAD tools, wind tunnels, fluid-dynamic analysis, etc, but it will hardly be the most optimized design.

These days, the fight is on to optimize the design. That is why a Columbia 350 with a bigger cabin, higher MTOW and a fixed gear goes as fast a Mooney Ovation with retractable gear, smaller cabin, lower MTOW. It is evolution.

Past success does not mean that we should repeat what came before.

Anonymous said...

Shane,
I agree with Dave. Eclipse didn't arrive at their current state overnight. This fiasco was years in the making. Vern is, by all accounts, a very persuasive and apparently trustyworthy man when you first meet him. He was able to convince several hundred people that he was legitimate and that he would deliver. You need look no further than how he scammed the NAA.

It can be very, very difficult to accept the fact that you were scammed by someone you trusted. Not only does it require that you accept the fact that you have incurred a financial loss, it also requires you to accept that you made a mistake in judgment. Those that got burned because they truly believed Vern's rhetoric have my sympathy. Those that got burned because of their own greed... well... that's karma.

Black Tulip said...

Thank you again Gunner. We've offered to send more lawyers, guns or money, and so far you've said you don't require additonal assets. Please let the bloggers know if we can assist in this noble effort.

airtaximan said...

Baron,

one must make the best use of the engine(s) which is defined by meeting your desired producton volume to provide ROI.

missed it by THAT much!

I'm convinced the $1.4M conjet will miss the mark as well, by as much, or more as the e500 - IF they actually live long enough to make and deliver them.

I believe this is more like a 100 plane per year product, and at that, the price, again, needs to be much higher. At the higher price, can they make money?

Maybe...

But IF they can, someting tells me, a competitor will do it better.

Unfortunately for Vern, THIS is not a "first to market" situation, and its not the "who-can-burn-the- most-money" industry... its a mature safety oriented industry that requires hitting the market with a product that meets enough demand to make a profit.

There is serious, well financed competition. To beat them, you need to be faster to market with a better product. They can start a year or two after you, and take more share, just based on reputation, safety culture, infrastructure, brand, residual value, company talent, quality production capcity and even a "better" product.

The first mistake was the lack of respect or even acknowledgement of the competition, industry history etc... and I am sure THIS mistake continues to plague eclipse, even today, jusdging by what they are currently doing with the conjet.

Fact of the matter is, they have little choice but to jettison the e500, its DOA.

They need to find a real competitive advantage for any product they produce, otherwise, Cirrus, Cessna, Embraer will abosultey eat their lunch.

Dave said...

But IF they can, someting tells me, a competitor will do it better.

I agree. Despite Eclipse's noises to the contrary, I think anything Eclipse can do some other aircraft manufacturer can do better. Cash arsonists and wise spending don't exactly go hand-in-hand. EA500 owners and position holders should be going ballistic that funds that could be used to getting their jet up to the advertised specs are being diverted away. This is being done at an admitted money-losing business that almost filed for BK before. Now Eclipse is only rushing faster towards BK while taking money away from delivering its promises. Then again, perhaps this is all part of a pre-BK plan to spend money like there is no tomorrow and then leave customers and suppliers high and dry after the BK filing is done.

Gorak said...

Shane,

Whether it was your intent to insult or not, you succeeded with your thoughtless statement.

Have the position holders or owners offended you in some way? What have they done that would warrant your attack? Are they not free agents, able to spend their money as they choose?

You, sir, may believe yourself a gentleman, but your statements reveal that you are not.

G

Anonymous said...

Gorak,

In Shane's defense, it is easy to think that someone is "stupid" when viewing from the outside. The outsider has the benefit of additional knowledge and a different perspective. It may be extreme but, in many ways, Eclipse operates like a cult. Both start with a reasonable premise. Little by little, the commitment is increased. What's $10 thousand more when you've already put down $100? What's one more year to wait when you've already waited six? Do you think that Jim Jones recruited his followers with the slogan of "Let's go drink some cyanide flavored Kool-Aid"?

airtaximan said...

"EA500 owners and position holders should be going ballistic that funds that could be used to getting their jet up to the advertised specs are being diverted away"

Well, since Dayjet backed out, there aren't that many "customers" really, now are there. Yup, 500-700 or so... but the e500 IS DOA.

D-O-A.

This is the single most important FACT of any analysis of EAC.

Despite the hype, false claims, tons of PR and advertising and marketing... its DOA.

The single most important competency of an aircraft OEM is selecting which product to make.

They do not have this competency. THIS IS NOW FACT.

I would imagine, IF the e500 was anywhere near successful, it would have garnered around 2,000 real orders. This is about 2-3 years backlog based on their stated production volume requirements to make money.

Without these real orders, the writing is on the wall.

Cessna reportedly has 500 (real) orders as a backlog for the mustang, today. their stated production is 150 per year. This is called SUCCESS in aviation.

Similar numbers for Embraer.

EAC id DOA with the 500... enter the conjet.

Based on VErns claim to be able to produce 100 in YR-1 and 400 in year-2, he better have at least 1000 planes sold, or this one is DOA as well.

Someone is going to poke at my numbers, so its just my opinion... they better have at least 2.5 years of stated production in the bag with real orders and deposits, or it DOA again.

I am sure Vern is looking to say he has 1000 orders... we'll see how this "smells" and revisit when the chips fall in a month or two.

If Shane is right, and position-holders are asking for refunds instead of the "switch"... its DOA number-2. This will BK the company... refunding deposit money is a cashflow nightmare.

HAIL MARY.

July/August is going to be very revealing.

PS. I imagine ETRICK will end up will the company, in Russia... and it will be a lot longer before anyone sees planes out of EAC than anyone can imagine today. I'd say after this Fall, EAC is closed, and ETRICK clams they will resume in Russia.

Just my imagination...
;)

airtaximan said...

Gorak,

It is Vern who has insulted the position-holders, not Shane.

He also took their money, faith and trust.

He called the "die-hards" in the press.

Shane is merely color commentating.

Perhaps you should comment on Vern's blog... send him a letter... express your dissatisfaction for his lack of consideration and honesty?

Do it here, too - we like it.

;)

eclipso said...

ATM said:
The first mistake was the lack of respect or even acknowledgement of the competition, industry history etc...

Another huge mistake was to have high paid head hunters go out for experienced people, paying to move them there, then, ignore EVERY thing this experience brought to them...however, I think Vern already had his agenda of which we are all finding out now

Niner Zulu said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Black Tulip said...

Gorak, please see the Unabridged Dictionary:

Position Holder - (Po-si-tion Hol-der)

Noun

11. An obscure reference to people who have given money to Eclipse Aviation in Albuquerque, New Mexico. Many have provided substantial cash amounts to the company, expecting to see a jet aircraft in return. Several have attended meetings in which they are asked by founder Vern Raburn, “Assume the position.” Several ‘position holders’ report staring at their shoes, socks, pants and underwear as they grasp their ankles.

chickasaw said...

I found an interesting website: http://www.aso.com

This site lists 12 E500s for sale from 1.9M down to 595K for a 1/3 share.
This is the description of another:

"One of the first with Garmin 400Ws and FIKI Certification at Delivery! Get your new, fully equipped Eclipse 500 for late August delivery. With Flight into Known Icing approval and Garmin 400W installation beginning with aircraft 266, this jet #280 should be fully equipped and not require any modification. Loaded with options!"

Is that inside information, that EAC is declaring FIKI by #266?

Gunner said...

Anybody who believes that the ConJet has met overwhelming demand, must have a secret Owner's Forum from which they get their info. From what I can see this one, like the EA-500, will be stillborn unless someone gins up the Order Book.

Can Vern get away with it twice? After what I've seen, nothing would surprise me.
Gunner

gadfly said...

In the background as I write this, “Fox News” is discussing “dead people that still vote”. At least these folks were once actually alive . . . and may have actually “voted” in the past, and “in the flesh”.

Yet, here we are, discussing the merits of a “jet aircraft” that never existed in the first place.

Strange world!

Until now, there is no record of a complete Eclipse E500 having ever been produced . . . and yet, the debate over its merits continue.

gadfly

(Does it really matter who said what, and who is a "gentleman", etc., . . . until the "real" jet appears, it's all an illusion.)

chickasaw said...

Here is a website that lists 75 E500 planes and positions for sale.
http://www.controller.com
Maybe you aviation guys can tell me if that is normal. Do people buy positions for an investment? I know they do for cars.

Gunner said...

BT, Fred, Shane and others:

Thanks much for offers of help on the legal fees. Unfortunately, I simply don't see how I could take funds from others without offering them decision-making roles; and I don't see how we can win this thing if run by Committee.

Thus far, I'm happy to write the checks, if only to let Vern know how much I really enjoy tweaking the noses of Napoleonic complex ridden, would-be bullies. Yep, I'm burning cash; Vern's burning bridges. Come morning, I suspect I can get more cash; Vern's gonna have a hard time ever being taken seriously again.

Let's see where this goes for now.
Gunner

chickasaw said...

Thanks Gunner, even though I am not on the "hit list". I appreciate you and your associates efforts. There are too few people who will put up or shut up. I hope to have the privilege of meeting you some day.

Susan said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Gunner said...

Susan-
I call BS on that observation. People are who they are despite fortune or position. Bullying is not a job skill, learned late in life due to position; it's a way of being in the world.

You don't see people like Vern, who treat colleagues, competitors and subordinates like he does, demonstrate loyalty to friends, lovers, wives or children. The birthright narcissism you see emanating from Clark Carr Blvd has been evident in this man's relationships since his first phone conversation with Bill Gates was reported several decades ago.

Vern Raburn may change someday; but he'll not be "going back to being a nice guy"; he was an people user then; he remains so today. He has to take full responsibility for that.

If reincarnation exists, I suggest that Vern is gonna have to come back a whole bunch more times before he gets it right! ;-)
Gunner

Dave said...

Thanks much for offers of help on the legal fees. Unfortunately, I simply don't see how I could take funds from others without offering them decision-making roles; and I don't see how we can win this thing if run by Committee.

It has been done before. See Groklaw for instance. Just make it clear where the money is going. If you make the terms clear then people can decide whether to contribute or not to contribute - for instance knowing how that you alone decide what to do on the legal front, but nothing you receive goes towards your personal benefit. There's nothing wrong with that.

I've noticed things like this happening and frankly I see an area that the law should address in regards to corporations. Currently there's 527s that are basically non-profit SPEs centered on politics (which I'm not a fan of 527s BTW) and then there's regular non-profits that are meant to be long-term. I'd like to see the corporate code changed to allow for issue-specific non-profits that aren't of a political nature...like if a non-profit could be created expressly to fund the Eclipse litigation. It would be a mix of the short-termness of a 527 with the focus of a trade association - both of which are non-profit entities but the contributions aren't tax deductable. I see that the internet has created as of yet unmet need for something like this as people worldwide get together on very specific issues.

Black Tulip said...

From ANN video part two, before the assembled multitude of ‘position holders'.

Vern said: “We’ve also done a lot of market research findings (Vern places finger thoughtfully to cheek) and those findings really suggest that the ECJ, now THE Eclipse 400, contains the most desirable blend of product and brand attributes (Vern glances again at monitor)….both existing and future competitors.” He moves on to focus groups and interviews.

Is it soap? is it software? Noo-o… ladies and gentlemen he is talking about an airplane.

uglytruth said...

ATM said:
Another huge mistake was to have high paid head hunters go out for experienced people, paying to move them there, then, ignore EVERY thing this experience brought to them...however, I think Vern already had his agenda of which we are all finding out now

Can I get an AAAAAA_MEN!

uglytruth said...

OK, please describe to me the procedure. I'm landing and blow a rear tire. Have any fron tires blown of a FPJ? Do I replace only the blown tire or both? They have both been landed the same # of times so the other is about to go correct? What is the cost of a tire replacement? Do I need 1 rim from road damage? Did the flat tire do any damage when it was flapping around to any structural or body panels? Do I need landing gear / brake inspection? What about the increaded load it put on the landing gear / wing / wing mounts / Stir fry welded ribs? How controllable is a 3 wheel AC with a flat rear tire? Not really a FPJ question just more of a general procedure what do I do now question?

Susan said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Dave Ivedorne said...

Anybody who believes that the ConJet has met overwhelming demand, must have a secret Owner's Forum from which they get their info

It shows up as an ad site at this time, but there is an Eclipse 400 web site out there. It's registered to a very common name out of a Montana PO box, with a phone number associated with cell phone exchanges in Port Charlotte, Florida.

Somebody by the same very common name has written articles for the eclipse500club.com/org sites (the ones registered to a Clark Carr Loop address). Somebody (presumably) else by the same name is involved in Eclipse: the software project.

So anything is possible...

My guess is that there is a secret owner's forum - so secret nobody knows that they're in it yet.

hummer said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
MetalGuy said...

Several have attended meetings in which they are asked by founder Vern Raburn, “Assume the position.” Several ‘position holders’ report staring at their shoes, socks, pants and underwear as they grasp their ankles.

Oh BT, you are my idol...

airsafetyman said...

"You're getting real close to some very sensitive information that may or may not be classified as insider"

According to the FAA a non-injury event is classified as an accident if the aircraft recieves "substantial damage" which means "damage or failure which adversely affects the structural strength, performance, or flight characteristics of the aircraft, and which would normally require major repair or replacement of the affected component." The definition goes on to exclude ground damage to landing gear, wheels, tires, flaps, and brakes. In the Midway event, if they could get away with replacing the flaps, and even the landing gear legs, it would not technically be an accident. If they had to do a major repair scheme on the wing because of damage to the structure it WOULD be an accident and would HAVE to be reported to the FAA, Vern's non-disclosure agreement would be irrelevant.

smartmoves said...

Stan - re 210hp engines, have you seen these???

http://www.mistral-engines.com/Products/G-200

Dave Ivedorne said...

In the Midway event, if they could get away with replacing the flaps, and even the landing gear legs, it would not technically be an accident. If they had to do a major repair scheme on the wing because of damage to the structure it WOULD be an accident and would HAVE to be reported to the FAA, Vern's non-disclosure agreement would be irrelevant.

Alas, those all-too-public SDRs apparently compel operators to violate Vern's "You Don't Talk About Fight Club" agreement. In the event of a potential major repair (with the downright pornographic level of reporting detail required to complete such repairs) owners will be required to retire their Bic Lighter Jets (and replace them with new $2.x million Bic Lighter Jets) or face the consequences for violating the INDA.

Hey, it's a heck of a lot cheaper than a Zippo - you didn't expect to be allowed to refuel it or replace the flint, did you?

In related news, Zippo announced that it will be increasing lighter production at its Kansas & Brazil facilities.

IAN,ANHB,TPOW

e500critter said...

There are other reasons that I see that this latest move of Vern's is suicidal.

Let's say there were 600 position holders outside Dayjet. 200 of these have been delivered, this leaves 400. Let's say of these 400 there are 200 of these that have ponied up the 60%, this means they are captive, they aren't going anywhere. This leaves 200 people who would be at risk to either ask for their deposits or purchase one of the 70 planes on the market. One would assume that those that were intent on owning an Eclipse would have the sense to purchase one of the aircraft on the market for nearly 800k less than what their planes are going to cost coming from Vern. The rest would most likely be asking for their money back and talking to the folks in Wichita.

Essentially Vern has created a competitor (pre owned EA-500's) that have annihilated what was left of his back orders, and whilst it has been suggested here that he should have been asking more for the plane, it is too late for that because there are plenty of replacements from owners that just want out of their planes that don't do the job, and apparently place the occupants at risk every 100th landing or so.

The analysis is then that the back order book has been erased with the news from Dayjet and this latest maneuver of Vern's, so what is he going to do with all this capacity? Remember he has been posturing himself to build one a day, who is he going to sell these planes to? Not the Europeans. If they can pass the DGAC requirements(and that is a big IF) the Ruskies will be taking that job over.

Since inception this company has demonstrated a lack of competency and an inability to execute along with a penchant for exaggeration that has never been seen before in this industry. The core values have been missing since day one, the stupid adverts with the guillotine and others are testimony to the bravado of the management at this start up that were entirely unmerited.

I for one cannot wait for their demise, the industry will be well rid of this scourge, now if we can only get rid of the bad taste left by the imbeciles who made the Collier award...

Gunner said...

e500critter said:
"Essentially Vern has created a competitor (pre owned EA-500's) that have annihilated what was left of his back orders, and whilst it has been suggested here that he should have been asking more for the plane, it is too late for that because there are plenty of replacements from owners that just want out of their planes that don't do the job, and apparently place the occupants at risk every 100th landing or so."

The fact of the matter is that smarter minds than my own called this exact scenario months and months ago. Right here. On this Blog. Repeatedly. With public facts for backup and common sense supply-demand theory for explanation.

And still the can-o-beans was touted as a great investment.

Gunner

fred said...

Gunner ...


to turn down offers for back-up make your efforts even more priceless !
(sounds pretty obvious , both ways )

as much as i know very well that to have 2 captain on a boat is the best way to have it sinked (in fact , in chineese ideograms meaning of "Mess" or "unable to reach a decision" is symbolized by : 2 leading persons (women?) under one roof !) i was not offering with a hidden idea of making you accountable for something or anything ...

i understand quite well that one of the way to remain credible is not to offer your flank for the stab of "he's making money out of it" attack by detractors ...!

as for the (new stunt) EA400 ...

i think the blog has predicted it long ago , definitely some kind of a decoy ...

for the (still) believers i will add nothing , except may be to read the "story of Garry Winnick and Global Crossing inc" ...

says a lot about such techies!

fred


PS: the secret-secret EA400 forum can be found here :

it is a Cristal ball ...

airsafetyman said...

What responsibility does the EAA have as to banning outright fraud "exhibitors" from their annual meeting to protect their more gullible members from being fleeced? Are there no qualification standards at all? Someone might say: "Hey, they exhibited at Oshkosh! I thought they were legit!" Of course, with the past history of Oshkosh exhibitors that would be a tough argument to make, but maybe it's time to clean out the stables?

Orville said...

From AVweb - apparently, Q4 2011 is now "early 2011". Yep - it's starting all over again:

Folks from Eclipse flew in from Albuquerque with two jets, the single-engine Concept Jet -- which is no longer a concept but now the E400, part of the product line -- and an E500 twin. Eclipse pilot Howard Judd said it took just over six hours and three stops to fly the single-engine jet across the country, but that's for the unfinished demonstrator version -- pressurized production copies will be able to fly higher, faster, longer, and more efficiently, and will also have a more powerful jet engine. Randy Brooks, Eclipse director of training, said interest in the E400 is high, and he expects first deliveries by early in 2011. Fuel efficiency is a strong point for the little jet, he said: "It will get 330 knots on less fuel than anybody."

airtaximan said...

orville,

this is a comment by a test pilot... who knows what it really means... probably a goof...

There's a lot more BS fodder than this.

But, perhaps you are correct.. perhaps they are gunning for early 2011.

Anyone wish to begin the guessing game for delivereins of the e400?

ATman: never
Gunner: never
Gadfly: never

Shall I continue?

Perhaps we should be opiniong on the last e500 delivery?
Date:
Serial number:

FC, you up for the "common wisdom" exercise again? It worked last time.

airtaximan said...

I mean, Director of Training... see, even I goof...

sparky said...

ASM said:

What responsibility does the EAA have as to banning outright fraud "exhibitors" from their annual meeting to protect their more gullible members from being fleeced? Are there no qualification standards at all? Someone might say: "Hey, they exhibited at Oshkosh! I thought they were legit!" Of course, with the past history of Oshkosh exhibitors that would be a tough argument to make, but maybe it's time to clean out the stables?

Maybe we could stick them in the fly market, in between the guys selling RC aircraft and old aviation books.

fred said...

i must add for the few ones still "in faith"

Gary Winnick is said to have left his "empire" with a hole of some 46 Billions US$

Come on , vern ...! still lots of way to go ... ;-))

Dave said...

As an update on Eclipski, the signing agreement between ETIRC and Ulanovsk Oblast took place on 6/7/08. Supposedly by 2011 (again that same year comes up with the EA500 as the EA400) the annual production in Russia will be 800 per year. So that's got to make the employees in New Mexico wonder if they'll have a job for long even if Eclipse stays in business? The Russian facility will cost $74 million to build and have a total investment of over $200 million.

Dave said...

Eclipse's bait-and-switch is working:
http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2008/06/09/224477/eclipse-nears-triple-digit-orders-for-eclipse-400-personal.html
People are paying more for less and after longer...if they ever receive it at all.

stan said...

smartmoves,

Have been watching the Mistral project for several years after having first seen it at Oshkosh in '05.

Interesting engine though the project is moving painfully slow.

The website is reporting a loss of power June 3 on their prototype due to the failure "of the internals of the exhaust system’s muffler."

The pilot survived with only minor injuries after a forced landing in a wooded area. The airplane is a write-off.

fred said...

please dave ...

source , if not secret ...!


as for me it is dead-easy to check if the said news on russian front has any truth or just a part of the hoola-boola-hopla dance in waga-waga oblast ...

Dave said...

source , if not secret ...!

Eclipse can foget about it! Also ETIRC plans on creating a "Virtual Jet Network" (VJN) with ETIRC functioning as an Application Service Provider (ASP).

ETIRC will provide employee training, aircraft lease/financing, servicing, etc with the air taxi businesses doing the billing, flying the routes and doing the marketing.

airtaximan said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
airtaximan said...

from The FI article... thanks Dave, a must read for fiction-lovers everywhere.

"However, owners of the first 500 aircraft, which were bought at the lower prices, now have aircraft that are "more valuable than they were before", he adds."

R-E-A-L-L-Y?
How many of these puppies were sold in the last 2 years at the old price of $1.5M?

Almost none.

How many will be sold at $2.1M?

Fewer, that's for sure.

I imagine Vern needs to say this, otherwise, BIG lawsuit... Imagine dumping a product line folks have deposits/positions for 8 years... they waited, agreed to revised specs, delivery dates and guarantees, and even took delivery of the plane which is not finished... and Vern basically full-nelson-ed them into taking the plane anyway. Then, with their deposit money, Vern brings another product to market in its place.
The new one has better fuel economy and similar performance... at the same price...

Imagine if you wereone of the unlucky ones to have to wait before ponying up your 60% deposit and you did not take delivery of the old plane, you get stuck with the choice between a newer model or the old one?

BUT
If you took the older, unfinished, higher fuel buring plane, you cannot switch? You are stuck... so to speak.

Everyone else can switch, not you?

HUH?

To be fair, Vern, at least offer EVERYONE a chance to switch to the new product. Be fair - right?

And, IF you honestly believe your statement that the e500 is worth much MORE, this should be NO problem for you. heck, offer a slight premium, for the additional wait time... or let them use the 500's until the 400's come out.

C'mon, prove Sunsan right, and do the right thing.

(never in a million years)

PS. Guys who took delivery of the e500 - I think Vern's rubbing your noses in it pretty darn hard!!!

Shane Price said...

You, sir, may believe yourself a gentleman, but your statements reveal that you are not.

... says Gorak.

I am insulted by someone who says I think I'm a gentleman.

As I thought I had made clear, I'm Irish. My great grandfather died in the GPO during the Easter Rising of 1916, in a sincere effort to rid my country of 'gentlemen'. To my continuing regret, 'we' failed.

So, Gorak, less of the insulting words about fellow bloggers please.

Shane

fred said...

shane ...

take it easy !

as it is said somewhere else :

"la bave du crapaud n'atteint pas la blanche colombe "

and finally Gorak is very close to Dourak , and i let you wonder what it means ...! ;-))

airsafetyman said...

"..the annual production in Russia will be 800 per year."

800 press releases?

Dave said...

I'd also expect the EA400 to have all the problems of the EA500 plus more of its own since it is a kluge hack of the EA500. Like gosh, the Avio NG only had 20 lines of code changed between the bare-bones EA500 system and bare-bones EA400 system. The production EA400 will have a ruddervator bias system and a yaw damper.

Also to confirm it is indeed the claim that 800 EA500s per year will be produced...then again, this might be the same scam that Eclipse ran in New Mexico with hyped up numbers because the Russians didn't read the english-language news that Eclipse doesn't hit its production rates by a mile.

fred said...

airsafetyman ...

don't you know how to read ?

800 planes per year !

800 planes per year in 2011 ,2012 ,no : 2013 ... unless it is 2014 !

is it an another version of "tomorrow we'll shave for free and give you free lunch as well ! " ?

fred said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Dave said...

800 planes per year in 2011 ,2012 ,no : 2013 ... unless it is 2014 !

So we're again back to there being claims that there'd be at or above 1000 units per year manufacturered of Eclipse VLJs. This therefore brings out the question of who is going to buy them? Even the cheaper EA400 is almost double the original EA500 price. Everyone who would have bought a four seater EA400 for $1.3M would have already done so with the $0.9M six seater EA500...and Eclipse is already converting them. Where's the huge market that's going to buy all these or is Eclipse engaged in fraud to stay in business? Raburn reminds me of Delorean, but Delorean was set-up by the government but Raburn is instead setting up governments to take a bath with millions of dollars in losses.

baron95 said...

Dave, thanks for the FI article. It contains quite a bit of detail on the configurations.

V-tail will be composite - new vendor to be announced.

90% chance that the cabin will be metal SFW.

First flight in late 2010 (2 and 1/2 years from now - wow!). That is how long everyone has to wait before checking the first publicly announced milestone. Lets see if they can do better than Boeing with the 787 (15 months late to first flight).

fred said...

dave wrote :

"this might be the same scam that Eclipse ran in New Mexico with hyped up numbers because the Russians didn't read the english-language news that Eclipse doesn't hit its production rates by a mile."

i will suggest you to be real careful with such statement ...

the two places where i have personally seen the "best speaker" of french (one of my mother language) was in africa(senegal) : where a simple mechanic , in the middle of nowhere , told me once a word , i had no choice but to fake i knew what it meant ... (just perfect word !)

and in russia , where a woman corrected me in the way verbs are supposed to be conjugate in MY language ... ( in the Moscou metro , while i was talking with a colleague ...)

no needs to describe how stupid i was feeling both times ...

so be careful about such statements ... ! ;-))

Gorak said...

Fred,

Ce n'est pas la vache qui crie le plus fort qui fait le plus de lait.

G

fred said...

baron95 wrote :

"90% chance that the cabin will be metal SFW."


sorry , you're wrong !

cabin will be made out of "Franklin's bill" sticked together by some "hi-Tech" glue (i cannot say more because of NDA !)

fred said...

gorak :

par contre c'est toujours la poule qui chante qui a fait l'oeuf !

c'mon , be smart , your words about shane were "a little" too much , no ?

Gorak said...

Shane,

My mistake, trying to ascribe character to you. I won't make that error twice.

My mistake was understandable, given that the Irish are known as paragons of even-tempered sobriety, honesty in speech and financial dealings, and intelligence, the world around.

But how about that airtaximan, saying that you were only following Vern's example? I thought you didn't like Vern, and here you are emulating him!

Éirinn go Brách,

G

Black Tulip said...

The Flight International article is exhilarating… nearly a hundred orders for the Eclipse 400 from former Eclipse 500 position holders. They know an opportunity when they see one.

The blog has collectively worked hard predicting developments at Eclipse Aviation. Let’s fast forward to year 2013. The Eclipse 400 is two years overdue. Sure there are a hundred of them flying, but it is not the harmonized fleet the company promised. The planes have two different avionics configurations and none has been certified above 30,000 feet. Fuel burn is high, aircraft range is short, and so is the temper of most owners. Many are clamoring to rip out the Eclipse avionics and replace it with the newly-released Garmin 1200 package.

There is a gathering of the faithful in Albuquerque for E-rrival 2013. Vern speaks from the podium with simultaneous Russian translation in the background. The aviation world is shocked to learn of the introduction of the Eclipse 300… the hangar door slides open as the sleek craft taxis up. This exciting new aircraft, unrivaled in performance and economy, will begin delivery in 2018. Vern notes this will be on the twentieth anniversary of the company.

To reward loyal followers, the most attractive pricing will be reserved for those who initially ordered an Eclipse 500, replaced it with an order for the Eclipse 400, and replaced that with a deposit for an Eclipse 300. Asked to comment, a position holder said, “It’s going to be a great airplane. I just hope I still have a medical certificate when it’s delivered.”

airtaximan said...

BT,

another "position-holder said: "I only have one question... face up, or face down?"

;)

Gorak said...

Fred,

On this blog, one can be as insulting and uncivil as they like, as long as they later post that they were just being a bit "cheeky".

That way, one isn't being the least bit hypocritical.

G

Gunner said...

Gorak-
I'm confused. Are you attempting to be cheeky?
Gunner

Dave said...

On this blog, one can be as insulting and uncivil as they like, as long as they later post that they were just being a bit "cheeky".
That way, one isn't being the least bit hypocritical.


You're just too funny. Shane took the curtesy of asking you "please" and you just completely blow Shane off, so you're complaint is hypocritical to say the least.

Gorak said...

Gunner,

As cheeky as I need to be.

Dave,

I did promise to never insult Shane again by referring to him as a "gentleman".

Is there another instance where I've insulted a fellow blogger?

G

Dave said...

Lets not forget that Eclipse lied about building planes in Russia:
http://www.avweb.com/eletter/archives/avflash/419-full.html#190021
Now everything that was reported then has turned out to be true.

mountainhigh said...

The EAC misdirection seems to be working. They are taking the focus off the 500 and everyone is talking about and speculating on the 400. We can discuss a paper airplane for another 3 yrs. EAC PR can pull out all the old press releases and just replace 500 with 400. Guess this might same them some money on PR. Their internal motto must be ... we fooled 'em once, we can fool 'em twice.

I expect they hope to have the focus totally turned on the 400 by Oshkosh. They will need to refocus the media (mostly accomplished), the prospects/marks, and I bet they are hoping to refocus the blog on the 400.

FreedomsJamtarts said...

Guys, do you mind if I continue adebate with Baron?

Freedomjamstarts said ... Normally building non-comforming prototypes is a sign of maturity in GA. Only the amateurs believe they can deign, certify and produce an optimal aircraft off the drawing board.

Baron95 wrote:

You mean amateurs like Cessna with the C510 Mustang, Embraer with the Phenom 100, Boeing with the 787, Gulfstream with the G650, etc? All of whom have built, are building and will build production jets with the first article being a fully compliant plane built on production tooling.

I thought I covered this by adding "GA" which to means the lower end, but you are correct, I was not clear with that thought. Obviously there is a cross over point where the cost of prototyping exceeds the risk reduction value.


Airplane design has moved away from non-conforming prototypes into fully digital design and production articles off-the bat. Only cash-strapped companies (like Adam) or not-fully committed companies (like Diamond) build non-conforming prototypes these days.

I would expand your list to add inexperience companies should prototype. Where are they to gain their experience from otherwise?

I would venture that the cross over point where the costs of prototyping outweigh the risk depends heavily on the corporate knowledge of the organization.

CATIA is not going to design a plane for you. It is a tool. The dinosaurs have a substantial body of knowledge tied up in CFD models, stress models, corporate design rules, best practices etc. Don't forget the discussions of Eclipse having stack up of tolerances issues. This is indicative of a company which is too inexperienced to have the knowledge base required to successfully avoid prototyping. Unfortunately by outsourcing the prototype design, their in house team gains very little of the experience that they will then need.

A company without knowledge and experience uses the certification standard/ FAR as a goal, whereas experience has shown that a plane build to the FAR as a maximum, is often woefully inadequate in the market. For an experienced design team, compliance to most aspects of the certification standards/FAR will be a by-product of meeting internal standards.

An inexperience team with an impatient demi-god manager will not even know where to find the public body of knowledge, and will not be giving the time to go through the AC material and digest the knowledge embodied in it.

Why did Cessna prototype the Skycatcher C162? Apart from marketing, I would guess that they don't have much in the way of light aircraft design experience left in house, and the corporate knowledge is all on paper. My guess is that the looked at the opportunity cost of tying up the Aerodynamic team tweaking CFD models from their last design (the Mustang) to cover the Skycatchers envelop, and just decided it was cheaper to prototype it. For the Mustang, the experience gained through the C500 series, the 680, the 750, the C525 series had a great deal of relevance, so the risk involved in stepping straight to a conforming Mustang was a manageable risk.


Having said that, there is a place for concept planes when you want to go into new markets. Williams built the VLJ prototype (in association with Eclipse) to showcase the small turbofans and test the VLJ market. Eclipse did the same with the ECJ.

Marketing is an important use for a prototype. As I mentioned, the engineering use of a prototype is often finished relatively quickly, so a smart company will still have all the time in the world to use it for marketing


Now that they have the feedback and decision to launch, they will design, test, certify the real plane. And you ca bet that the first flying article will be a conforming and built on production tooling.

The dumb company outsources the prototype. Not you have a marketing tool which does not conform to your drawing standards (which probably only has rudimentary drawings), which does not conform to the way your engineering team works, how they do things, their design assumptions etc, not to mention the emotional aspect of the management going behind the guys back to get the flash new project done fast.

To build a plane in one year to fly VFR and look good in front of the crowd is not a great challenge, and doesn't get you very far along the path to a certified, completed (tm Eclipse) A/C.

You don't have to consider CofG, lightning protection, maintainability, reliability, CRM, Human factors, or about 90 of the certification standard. If you can demonstrate basic safe flight, then you can get an experimental certification. I wonder what the VNE is on the current Conjet!

Baron you are probably correct that Eclipse will not do another prototype of the ConJet. If they are still around when the Conjet flies, it will probably be just as "Conforming" (tm eclipse) as the First E500 was when it flew!

gadfly said...

Dark Blossom

Your picture (of ABQ in the future) expands the imagination . . . as I "see" the left wing of the E400 lower to the tarmac to allow the original "owners/position holders" make their way in motorized wheelchairs up into the cockpit, and take their place behind the new "prescription" windscreen, (available in 2.50, 2.75, 3.50 magnification) as a "soft recorded female voice" comes over the "intercom" to remind them that this is, indeed, the aircraft that they originally ordered.

gadfly

(You can fill in the other blanks.)

Orville said...

Re: the quote from June, 2005:

"This story is completely false," Eclipse spokesman Andrew Broom told AVweb. "Eclipse Aviation is not and never has been in any discussions or negotiations with anyone relating to Eclipse 500 final assembly or producing sub-assemblies for the Eclipse 500 in Russia."

They spin their words very carefully - take note - "final assembly or producing sub-assemblies"

They didn't lie - they're producing the entire airplane in Russia.

What a load of...

mountainhigh said...

Let's shine the light on the 500 again. The best indicator of the quality of a future product is the quality of the current product!

The following is from a public database representing self-reports on incidents. I almost hesitate to put these on the blog...since God-Vern may try to strong-arm the agency operating the database into removing these reports. If this happens one could interpret this as more evidence of fraud and cover-up.
----
This one sheds more light on the pitot problem. The output of the database is in all caps.
-----

Time / Day
Date : 200801
Flight Conditions : IMC
Operator.Common Carrier : Air Taxi
Make Model Name : Eclipse 500
Operating Under FAR Part : Part 91
Flight Plan : IFR
Aircraft Component : Pitot-Static Affiliation.Company : Air Taxi
Equipment Problem : Critical
Narrative:
UPON GEAR RETRACTION, AFTER TAKEOFF, RECEIVED FULL STALL WARNING. CAS MESSAGES -- AIRSPD DISAGREE -- STICK PUSHER FAIL. RED AIRSPD DIGITS ON FO PFD ALONG WITH STALL TAPE AT 120 KTS. THE DECISION WAS MADE TO RETURN FOR LNDG ON THE DEP RWY. ALT AND VIS WAS SUFFICIENT AND TWR WAS ADVISED.

CALLBACK CONVERSATION WITH RPTR REVEALED THE FOLLOWING INFO: RPTR STATED HE HAS HAD THIS TYPE OF FAILURE SEVERAL TIMES IN THE LAST FEW MONTHS IN THE EA50, AND IT HAS BEEN TRACED TO MOISTURE IN THE STATIC SYSTEM. THE PROBLEM NORMALLY ARISES WHEN THE ACFT IS ON THE RAMP DURING RAINSTORMS, BUT CAN ALSO OCCUR WHEN FLOWN IN RAIN. RPTR STATED IT CAN POSE A COMPLEX AND CHALLENGING SCENARIO TO THE FLT CREW WHEN THEY ARE CONFRONTED WITH A NUMBER OF FLAGS AND WARNINGS, INCLUDING STALL INDICATIONS JUST AFTER TAKEOFF IN IFR CONDITIONS. RPTR STATED THEE IS AN A.D. OUT ON THE STATIC SYSTEM, THEY CONTINUE TO HAVE PROBLEMS WITH THE MOISTURE ISSUE. THE RPTR BELIEVES THE LOCATION OF THE STATIC PORTS ABOVE THE MIDLINE OF THE FUSELAGE CONTRIBUTES TO THE PROBLEM.
Synopsis
AN ECLIPSE 500 CAPT RPTED MULTIPLE AIRSPEED-RELATED PROBLEMS SHORTLY AFTER TAKEOFF. HE RETURNED TO LAND AT HIS DEP ARPT.

mountainhigh said...

And another report on the tire issue.
This may be why Raburn has put out in the press that the EAC is more appropriate for professional pilots.
------

Time / Day
Local Time Of Day : 1201 To 1800
Date : 200802
Flight Conditions : VMC
Light : Daylight
Operator.Common Carrier : Air Taxi
Make Model Name : Eclipse 500
Operating Under FAR Part : Part 91
Flight Phase.Landing : Roll
Flight Plan : IFR
Aircraft Component : Brake System
Person : 1
Affiliation.Company : Air Taxi
Narrative
AFTER EXECUTING A NORMAL APPROACH AND LANDING UNDER VMC CONDITIONS, THE AIRCRAFT VEERED APPROXIMATELY 20-30 DEGREES TO THE RIGHT BUT CONTINUED TO TRAVEL PARALLEL TO THE RUNWAY CENTERLINE. FO WAS FLYING AND CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN POSITIVE CONTROL. HE REALIGNED THE AIRCRAFT WITH THE CENTERLINE. THE AIRCRAFT THEN PROCEEDED TO DRIFT TOWARD THE LEFT. THE CAPTAIN TOOK CONTROL AND STEERED THE AIRCRAFT BACK TOWARDS THE CENTER OF RUNWAY. AIRCRAFT CAME TO A COMPLETE STOP APPROXIMATELY 3/4 OF THE WAY DOWN THE RUNWAY. BOTH MAIN TIRES HAD FAILED.

CALLBACK CONVERSATION WITH RPTR REVEALED THE FOLLOWING INFO: THE REPORTER STATED THAT AS A PART 135 OPERATOR HE CURRENTLY FLIES THIS ACFT AS MUCH AS ANYONE ELSE IN THE INDUSTRY. HE HAD FOUND THAT THE LACK OF ANTI SKID AND SPOILERS IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE NUMBER OF TIRE FAILURES ON THE EA 50 ACFT. IN THIS CASE, A SLIGHT CROSSWIND AT 140/8 KTS LIFTED THE RIGHT WING SLIGHTLY AS THE BRAKES WERE APPLIED AND WHEN THE TIRE CONTACTED THE RWY IT WAS LOCKED BECAUSE THERE WAS NO RESISTANCE. THE REPORTER STATED THAT TWO ADDITIONS TO THE ACFT WOULD HELP TO CORRECT THIS PROBLEM THAT SEEMS COMMON TO THE ACFT. ONE IS THE ADDITION OF SPOILERS TO KEEP THE ACFT WT ON THE WHEELS AFTER LANDING AND THE OTHER IS A BRAKE ANTI SKID SYSTEM. HE SAID THE PROBLEM IS PARTICULARLY TROUBLESOME WHEN LANDING ON WET RWYS WITH A CROSSWIND. THE REPORTER STATED THAT THIS ACFT IS A HANDFUL AND HE FEARS FOR WEALTHY INEXPERIENCED PILOTS WHO PURCHASE THIS ACFT WITH VERY LITTLE FLT TIME AND GET IT INTO SITUATIONS WHERE THEIR PILOTING SKILLS ARE UNABLE TO HANDLE THE ACFT.
Synopsis
AN ECLIPSE 500 BLEW BOTH TIRES DURING A CROSSWIND LANDING AFTER THE FO STEPPED ON THE BRAKE WITH A WING UP SLIGHTLY, LOCKING THE WHEEL. THE SECOND TIRE BLEW ATTEMPTING TO CONTROL DRIFT.

mountainhigh said...

Freedom, I think you are right on regarding the prototype issue.

Dave said...

Eclipse Aviation = Three Card Monte

With Vern of course being the Con Man

Sooner or later all this is going to catch up to Eclipse. Hopefully Vern wont end up like Soapy Smith. Old time cons are harder to pull of these days thanks to the internet and other such things. It's not wonder Vern wants to silence the blogs.

Shane Price said...

Gorak,

I must admit I was wrong. Your command of Irish moves you from the trivial to the respected in one bound. Please feel free to slap me down anytime you like.

That's 'slap' not 'SLAPP' by the way. I don't want you coming all Vern with me.

I had hoped that someone would notice I was being over the top with the 'gentleman' remarks!

Can we now call a truce on this as it is clear I've failed in yet another attempt to drag the Faithful into an open discussion. Guess it will continue to be emails which I can't directly reproduce to protect the source.

The work of a blog custodian has many facets, most of which I enjoy. Saying sorry for a 'brute force' attempt to extract a response is not one of them.

So, Gorak, let us be friends.

Shane

Dave said...

Here's news on Eclipse:
http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/story.jsp?id=news/DAY06098.xml&headline=DayJet%20Digs%20In%20To%20Survive%20Capital%20Drought&channel=busav
There's not taking any Eclipse aircraft in 2008 and they're only using about 10 aircraft per day.

airtaximan said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
airtaximan said...

it will probably be just as "Conforming" (tm eclipse) as the First E500 was when it flew!"


I have an honest to goodness suggestion for EAC.

Do a formal root cause analysis for the DOA E500 program.

Begin with:
- we spent too much time and money - ask WHY
- the product did not meet the market - ask WHY
- the product did not meet the spec - ask WHY

I believe this NEEDS to be done before any new product can be undertaken seriously.

Moving to Russia will only change the scenary...

Moving on to another product will only provide an opportunity to make the same mistakes.

... the first step is admitting you have a problem.

Come to conclusions about what went so wrong, and fix the system and company before another attempted product.

Dave said...

I believe this needs to be done before any new product can be undertaken seriously

The thing is that the EA400 is a kluge of mostly EA500 parts. The FAA and EASA should get a real kick out of how the EA400 built by taking EA500 parts and then sawing them and generally tweaking them into becoming EA400 parts. The good news I guess is that the EA500 can be cannibalized for parts for those who have EA400s (should they ever actually arrive).

airtaximan said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
airtaximan said...

"the high degree of commonality" argument was predicted on this blog BEFORE the conjet appeared at EAA.

Know why? 'casue its BS.

There is ver little that will be meaningfully "common" between the two planes.

BUT, its the only argument for any sort of economies of scale/rate production for the suppliers.

E500 is DOA... no volume production, here... so, they promise volume in the form of commonality with the NEXT revolutionary future-proof product, the one that's obsoleting the last future-proof product.

Anyone remember that the e500 was declared future-proof? Was this intended to be synonymous with DOA?

What a complete farce.

gadfly said...

Sooner or later, someone is going to be hurt. And some people should be held accountable . . . including the INDIVIDUALS within the FAA (who gave their approval of this incomplete thing), the “owners” (who have had ample warning of the many problems and short-comings), and finally, the people who have “produced and delivered” this incomplete . . . “contraption”.

Some of us have taken a risk . . . and given ample warning. And, in return, we have received an “attack” from the “top” of this farce. Our beloved industry, the entire aviation industry, has sunk to a low in credibility, never before seen in my memory.

The evidence continues to build . . . and yet, the farce continues. To date, not a single complete “very light jet” has been produced . . . not one! And yet, life continues as if all is well in Albuquerque. What does it take for editors of local and national media to get some backbone and speak up? . . . Yeh, I know, “you might get sued” . . . ‘hope you all sleep well . . . Not!

There will come a time when we’ll hear all the excuses for “being silent”, etc., . . . or probably it will be totally ignored. You who read this blog, Now is your time to “shine” . . . to share what you know, and do something.

I rest my case.

gadfly

(Thanks, Gunner, . . . maybe your name will not appear in history books, but you will have the satisfaction, and the thanks from some of us for doing the “right thing”.)

Gorak said...

Shane,

Apology and offer of truce accepted.

Even though you won't admit to being a gentleman, you are acting like one.

Kind regards,

G

P.S. I suspect that some of my own Irish heritage is apparent from time to time.

FlightCenter said...

The headline of the DayJet article is "DayJet digs deep to survive capital drought"

The article could just as easily have been titled "DayJet digs deep to survive customer drought"

If DayJet were swimming in customers, they probably wouldn't be experiencing a capital drought.

Ed talks about doing many things to operate the company more efficiently, with heavy emphasis on technology based operational solutions.

What he doesn't talk about is looking at changing the business model to one that would be more attractive to new customers. Instead he says the business model and customer base are doing just fine.

If that's the case, why are they planning to sell a significant percentage of their aircraft fleet?


You can build better factories to make dog food more efficiently, you can optimize the logistics of delivering dog food, but at the end of the day, none of that matters if the dogs won't eat the dog food.

FlightCenter said...

Eclipse 500 Order History

Updated to reflect the transfer of nearly 100 Eclipse 500 orders to Eclipse 400 orders.

Dave said...

Ed talks about doing many things to operate the company more efficiently, with heavy emphasis on technology based operational solutions.

The Three Stoodges are great. Vern talks about planes like they're Dell computers and can be built just as easily, with Ed transporation is like an Operating System and with Roel he sees himsel as an Application Service Provider...all computing-related. Ed is the best with his brand of snakeoil - he's losing money, so that means he's proven his model. Nobody is flying on DayJet despite the worldwide publicity and advertising. Vern is catching up with the entertainment value of his snakeoil though. There's a huge amount of comedy rhodium in how victims (AKA Eclipse customers) are trading in their dead positions (EA500) for undead positions (the EA400 frankenplane). The owners can't say they weren't warned, but they decided to listen to the snakeoil salemsmen instead of the blog.

easybakeplane said...

freedom,

What about the 'dinosaurs' (that have all the design knowledge) that go directly into production without prototypes, but use inexperienced suppliers/partners to save money?

Gunner said...

Dave-
I don't, for one nanosecond, believe anything like 100 Eclipse 500 Depositors have transferred their deposits to the ConJet. Why?


1) I don't believe Eclipse has 400 untapped Depositors for the EA-500 left. >25% chose to roll the dice and wait until 2011 to hear about the FIRST delays? I don't think so.

2) I don't believe 100 EA-500 Depositors failed to see the ultimate outcome of Eclipse Supply/Demand readily available thru Controller. Why risk case money for another 3+ years, when you can buy someone else's problem when the time comes?

3) The 100 Depositors number ultimately came from Vern, thus requiring the movement of his lips. Lie.

Gunner

Dave said...

I don't, for one nanosecond, believe anything like 100 Eclipse 500 Depositors have transferred their deposits to the ConJet.

There's a couple of different ways this con could be played depending on how the snakeoil salesmen are getting along with one another. Like gosh, just recently DayJet announced that it wouldn't be taking about 100 EA500s and now Vern is claiming they found depositors to to take about 100 EA400s. Notice that Vern didn't threaten to sue (despite Eclipse's litigiousness) even though DayJet has the money to buy the jets (DayJet the $140 credit facility expressly to buy jets and they've barely touched it). Maybe a few people not actually in on the con signed up, but if there's another DayJet/Eclipse con going on with EA400s like how there was with the EA500s, Vern could be using that to pressure EA500 position holders.

Black Tulip said...

Dave,

Frankenplane is an excellent name for the Eclipse 400 and I think Mary Shelley (1797 – 1851) would approve. Recently dead airframes are robbed of vital components during the wee hours. These pieces are carefully stored in the hangar until a stormy night looms. They are assembled under the friction stir welding machine which is then connected to the lightning apparatus. Thunder booms and at midnight Vern raises the lightning rod, "More power Peg." The sparks fly, the flying machine quivers… “It’s alive, it’s alive.”

easybakeplane said...

There was earlier speculation on the possiblity of a 'Vernsastic' FIKI solution that involved PhostrEx heating the air around the whole a/c, thus doing away with the need for traditional anti-ice systems.

Could we also be looking at a PhostrEx fuel cell powering the zero-engined E300 that will be announced in 4-5 years?

Preliminary performance:
Max passengers: zero (only pilot)
Takeoff/landing distance: 0 ft (VTOL)
Range: infinite (but limited by bladder capacity of pilot)

(Available exclusively to E500/E400 customers who have paid at least a 60% deposit...)

Dave said...

Frankenplane is an excellent name for the Eclipse 400 and I think Mary Shelley (1797 – 1851) would approve. Recently dead airframes are robbed of vital components during the wee hours.

Frankenplane seemed most apt. Hearing how the ECJ was built sounded like Frankenstein's monster with the hacking up of pieces of other bodies and then stitching them together. Like with the wings hacking off the tip tanks and then attaching on other parts...I just instantly though "Frankenstein." Vern's version of "commonality" is scary with all the hacking and stitching involved to create the monster.

gadfly said...

To be accurate, it was "Dr. Frankenstein's monster" . . . the "monster" is not the "Doctor". You may wish to adjust the names and title, accordingly.

gadfly

(You might wish to view the "monster" as the victim, or rather,victims of the "doctor", etc., since we strive to be accurate in our criticism.)

Dave said...

To be accurate, it was "Dr. Frankenstein's monster"

That's what I said!

gadfly said...

Dave

You are correct . . . I miss-read your careful wording.

gadfly

Dave Ivedorne said...

Preliminary performance:
Max passengers: zero (only pilot)
Takeoff/landing distance: 0 ft (VTOL)
Range: infinite (but limited by bladder capacity of pilot)


Ceiling: 61,000 feet, because it sounds good.

It is anticipated that there will be some problems with the Phostrex Known Icing system, which will delay introduction by a couple years.

Shortly after introduction of an incomplete Eclipse 300, they will announce the Eclipse 200 - a Truly, Really, This Time We Mean It disruptive product that solves all the problems with the Eclipse 500 that the 400 & 300 couldn't.

-PhostrexNG will solve the FIKI issue.
-The avionics & FMS will be so advanced that windows will not need to be installed.
-A relief tube will make the range truly infinite. It will be necessary to stop every 25000 miles (and importantly, at the same location from which you departed), but you won't have to refuel it.
-It will be totally silent. For an additional charge, you'll be allowed to make airplane noises. Under the terms of the Eclipse Customer NDA, you will not be allowed to tell anybody that you did.
-You can purchase it as an individual aircraft, or in combination with the soon-to-be-announced Eclipse 150.

Would you like the combo?
IANAL

Charity said...
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Charity said...
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Dave said...

Can someone tell me what Skupas case update might mean..."hearing vacated per stipulated order" ?


Seeing how that it was postponed until 8/12, it looks like the parties arrived at some temporary agreement and will let things get hashed out later. Either or both parties might have wanted more time until the case progressed.

Dave Ivedorne said...

hearing vacated per stipulated order

"Stipulated" means that both parties agreed to it before presenting it to the Court.

"Vacated" is usually cause for celebration by a defendant or respondant. However in this case, it is only the hearing, as scheduled on the docket, that is being vacated. There is no reason (other than an outbreak of common sense at Eclipse) that it can't be scheduled for another time.

Have I mentioned?
IANAL,OTPOW

Charity said...
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fred said...

i come back on the "Russian front"
(sorry for the boredom...)

Russia’s First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov declared in the St.Petersburg Economic Forum :

"In the third place of country's problems , the country needs to make up for its workforce’s insufficient skills.

People are the major source of social and economic development. Today we are facing the need of the overwhelming renewal of skilled workers and bringing up new highly qualified specialists,”


so the first "multi-millions $" quetion that come to my mind is :

IF EAC couldn't make it in a country where talented workers are used to build aircrafts for a long time , what are the chances they could have any "sweetdreams" as being able to succeed in an other country where the deputy prime minister publicly say this ?

then the second one is :

with the known financial situation of EAC , how come anybody would come with the idea to get "Extra Burden" to have to train new workers (again and again ?), when you have already all the pain to just survive ? (with added pain = new language !)

then the third one :

if EAC has (or is ) fired their most talented workers (and suing the other ones ?) : who is going to train the new workers ?
would you , if you had to get some training , get it from the best available or from the ones "freshly trained themselves around the corner of workshop " ?

the fourth one :

if you would be in need of "technology" and "skill for your workforce home" would you consider getting it from a firm blatantly known for failures , delays , over promises , Hi-techs announced but reduced then after to 50/60 Y.O. techs ... ?

the fifth one :

would do you consider "investing" so much money ? in something so cruelly bad standards (and litigious) ? wouldn't you aim for the best , knowing you have all the cash needed ?


no , the whole story sounds as what it is : a farce !

:some still believers ?

ok : in January , it was claimed the Plant in Улья́новск was already "granted" to Etirc or something close to it ...

on the 28 of May (of the same year!) Etirc , itself, announced the no deal could be reached with the oblast ... making it NOT really sure if the said town would be "Chosen " as the one to receive the "blessing" ....!

(last time i heard about(take it for what it has been sold to me : Rumors!) : the deal was going nowhere as EAC/Etirc was simply asking this : Give us the land , build a factory for us , we'll provide you with the jobs !

one can wonder why the deal was getting nowhere if what as been reported is true ... )

fred said...

i forgot ...

(Alzheimer ... old buddy ! ;-) )

on the 9th of June , being the latest i can have access to , the only one thing related to Aviation in Ulyanovsk Oblast is the 25Th anniversary of the City Aviation Museum ...

as for May : nothing related to Aviation ...

may be that's the trick , put EA500 and EA400 straight to Museum ...

source :
Serguey Ermakov , mayor of Ulyanovsk ....

газета "Ульяновск сегодня"

fred said...

ouuppss ...


газета "Ульяновск сегодня" =

"gazette (newspaper)Ulyanovsk today"

sorry ...

but if you were an elected someone anywhere , wouldn't you like to "communicate " on the fact that your "enlightened vision" or "wisdom" is going to bring so many job , so well paid (as in vern's declaration , contradicted by someone else from EAC ) to town ???

i tell you , just a sad farce ...!

airtaximan said...

Gunner,
I agree with the position dynamics related to the conjet, except for one thing.

They are offered $125k price reduction. I think these guys, who are absolutely going for the "cheapest" jet, would take the bait.

I know it sounds a little crazy, but the whole darn thing is crazy at this point...no?

I also agree there really are not that many position-holders left. Maybe 400, like you stated.

FC, perhaps we could provide a trend line tracking the deliveries (reducing the backlog) on the order book chart? It will defict the remaining "orders" net of "adjustments from "cancelled" orders - Aviace, Dayjet) and show deliveries...

Today, we'd see around 500 or 600 left to be delivered - based on Verns claims to the press. Given the "inflation" factor associated with Verns claims, I would safely bet its off by 40%... and I'm being nice about it.

Charity said...
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sparky said...

did anyone see the deal inked by dayjet to team up with the FAA and Embry-Riddle to help with the NEXT-GEN implementation in Florida.

Apparently it's a five-year deal...i don't guess they figured on Dayjet being out of business almost before the news was announced.

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

Nice job Vern - you really are a piece of work - well piece of something anyway.

You didn't get your SLAPP complaint right the first time by filing it in New Mexico when the Google TOS clearly state California law applies. Oops. Never mind this colossal failure, try again.

Then you didn't get it right by naming 29 bloggers without any specific examples of what you claim to be suspect posts. Oops. Never mind this colossal failure, try again.

Then you cut the list in half by only providing specific examples for about 15 bloggers. Oops. Never mind this colossal failure, try again.

But you didn't get that right either as all or nearly all posts quoted not only had nothing to do with the company named in the sealed court case, they were all based on publicly available information or were clearly identified as personal opinion, suspicion or conjecture.

Imagine the juevos on this weenie, "Gee your honor, we F'd this thing up six ways from Sunday but this next attempt will not be a waste of your time like the previous four, you just wait and see."

Come to think of it, haven't we seen this behavior from the Vernperor before? Hmmmmm, where was it?

I think the Eclipse legal team is taking a page from the product team at Eclipse - overpromise, underdeliver, claim victory, and repeat until obviously a failure, then announce a new concept.

CWMoR prediction - Once it is obvious that Eclipse will not be successful in this obvious SLAPP withchunt fishing expedition shotgun attempt to dissuade criticism, look for Legal B.S. NfG, Skupa Redux with another employee or suits against customers for breach of contract.

CWMoR prediction - Attempted SLAPP withchunt fishing expedition shotgun attempt to dissuade criticism is DOA shortly AFTER OSH, hopefully along with the Skupa case.

ASPCNDA Disclaimer - No NDA's were harmed in the forming of this opinion/satire. Any scenes appearing to place NDA's in jeopardy were simulated.

Charity said...
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ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

Charity, the company in the selaed court case may simply be involved only because Eclipse included the sealed court case as a reference to the blogger complaint. I am not sure that they are being named in this action so much as Eclipse trying somehow to suggest that there mahy have been something in that complaint (between Eclipse and the company in question) but then not providing it saying it was sealed.

I would like to know why it was included in the action against the bloggers if Eclipse is not stating that it is directly related - but then as I wrote above, Eclipse is apparently being repersented by Larry, Moe and Curly, Esquires or Vern is taking a direct hand, which frnakly bodes well for the bloggers given his record of 'success'.

baron95 said...

Mountainhigh quoting SDR said ... HE HAD FOUND THAT THE LACK OF ANTI SKID AND SPOILERS IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE NUMBER OF TIRE FAILURES ON THE EA 50 ACFT. IN THIS CASE, A SLIGHT CROSSWIND AT 140/8 KTS LIFTED THE RIGHT WING SLIGHTLY AS THE BRAKES WERE APPLIED AND WHEN THE TIRE CONTACTED THE RWY IT WAS LOCKED BECAUSE THERE WAS NO RESISTANCE.

Bingo! I have had exactly one tire go out during landing in my flying adventures and it was this same exact scenario. I had put forward that Eclipse pilots were locking the wheels particularly in cross-winds causing the blown tires.

I think it was a bad decision to not have anti-skid on the E500. Yes the approach speeds are slow enough, but that wing is really close to the ground and prob has a lot of lift in ground effect. If DayJet is hiring ex-airline crews, you can bet those guys will jump on the brakes hard as soon as the wheels are down. Not a good combination.

Pilot training can help a bit, but the real solution is a good anti-skid. It is 2008. We don't buy cars without ABS anymore. It is crazy to delete anti-skid or at least a wheel-lock protection from a jet.

At least this one should be a good add on. Eclipse should get on certifying one ASAP.

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

Baron,

While I agree that the leack of ABS is tremendous failure of vision/decision making on Vern's part, don't you suppose we should encourage him to actually finish the basic design of the EA-500 first, then complete the previously promised options second, and THEN work on new options, as well as EASA certification and the disruptive technology never before anything like it EA-500, oops sorry, I mean EA-400 (it's like deja vu all over again - lol).

421Jockey said...

Questions for the group:

If Dayjet bk is imminent, why would the FAA begin a new 5 year program where Dayjet is the backbone of the operation?

Also, why would the FAA invest the equipment in EA500s if EAC is on the brink?

Ex421 Jockey

baron95 said...

Freedomjam said ... I would venture that the cross over point where the costs of prototyping outweigh the risk depends heavily on the corporate knowledge of the organization.

Freedom, I can't find much to disagree on your post. The decision to prototype (e.g. Honda Jet, Williams VLJ, Eclipse ECJ, Diamond D-jet) or not (e.g. C510-Mustang, Phenom 100) is a complex one. There are marketing, engineering and institutional knowledge to consider.

In general though, these days, the companies that go through the expense of building a prototype are the ones that have not made a firm decision to produce the plane in volume and are exploring new markets, new configurations or new technologies.

I just took exception with your blanket statement that only amatours build planes without a flying prototype.

As for wind-tunnel replacing prototyping, Wind tunnels are great for some things (drag reduction and airfoil lift optiization) but no so good for others (control response/feel).

The critical design issues of the ECJ will be control response/feel of the new tail design, particularly at high altitudes and high angles of attack. I think there is some value in getting a flying prototype to check on those. But it certainly can be done without one. The ECJ prototype was mostly a marketing study and showcase effort.

Dave said...

If Dayjet bk is imminent, why would the FAA begin a new 5 year program where Dayjet is the backbone of the operation?

Who said they were the backbone? The FAA and General Dynamics amongst others might disagree. Besides, if DayJet goes TU, there's nothing stopping someone else from taking their place. It's not surprising that DayJet's political friends would help provide some life support to the ailing company.

I don't get why you somehow think the federal government of all places is a model of reason and efficiency.

Also, why would the FAA invest the equipment in EA500s if EAC is on the brink?

Whether Eclipse stays in business or not, the planes can outlast the life of the corporation. The FAA doesn't just pretend that aircraft of now-defunct aircraft manufacturers simply doesn't exist.

Regardless, I again don't see how the deficit-ridden US federal government is supposed to be a model of wise spending.

baron95 said...

AT said in previous thread ... Aerospatiale is part of EADS, Dassault is not.

AT, while we are in the correcting mode, I think I should get back to this to avoid readers getting the wrong impression that Dassault has nothing to do with EADS.

EADS owns 46% (give or take) of Dassault Aviation, and, in fact reports pro-rata revenues from Dassault aviation in its financial reports. All of those groups entities were engineered by the French government (some aided by the German government), which continuously meddle with their governance structure.

There is no arms-lenght relationship there - if you know how the French aerospace industry and EADS work, you know it is the same boys club running it all.

Having said all that - the 7X is a very cool plane. But it would be even cooler with two engines instead of 3. Maybe it then could meet the range/speed of the Gs and Bs.

AvidPilot said...

Correct me if I'm wrong, but it appears that the problem of tires blowing out on landing does NOT lie with Michelin.

Instead, the problem is inherent in the Eclipse design, due to the lack of anti-skid braking, spoilers, or both.

Any time you have even a slight crosswind, it is possible/likely/easy to get "light" on one side of the main gear or the other. The design of the Eclipse must be such that it is very easy to lock up one side if you're on the brakes at all. This is a design flaw that must be fixed.

Judging from the number of occurences, it's not a question of IF it will happen, it is WHEN.

Unless Eclipse jumps all over this problem right now, look for an AD on this one.

airsafetyman said...

"There is no arms-lenght relationship there - if you know how the French aerospace industry and EADS work, you know it is the same boys club running it all."

Utter BS. I do know how the French aerospace industry works. If Dassault WERE running EADS you would not be seeing the delays and friction that is evident at EADS. The ultra-long range Dassault 7X is simply the most successful business jet launch in history with an order backlog of 8 BILLION dollars. It is flying today, not on some forecast date far into the future. It was designed with Dassault Systemes own CATIA software, the world's standard. You come here and champion Eclipse, a company that has screwed up every single thing it touches, and who has totally embarrased anyone involved in aviation?

Dave said...

Instead, the problem is inherent in the Eclipse design, due to the lack of anti-skid braking, spoilers, or both.

I think its due to Eclipse abandoning the Williams engine and going with the heavier P&W, which Eclipse didn't fully compensate all the equipment to take on the increased weight and wear due to this. Eclipse despite having years and years continually kluges and unsurpringly shortchanges their customers whenever they can.

airtaximan said...

"AT said in previous thread ... Aerospatiale is part of EADS, Dassault is not."

Baron... I would not say this - this is not me... just for the record.

ATMan

airtaximan said...

"The decision to prototype (e.g. Honda Jet, Williams VLJ, Eclipse ECJ, Diamond D-jet) or not (e.g. C510-Mustang, Phenom 100)"

Honda: many, many novel elements, including laminar nose, over wing engines, etc... also, Honda had never produced a jet before, except for some prototypes.

Williams: built the Vjet as a showcase for a government experimental engine.

Eclipse Conjet: hire an outside firm to design and build a one-off, for a stunt. I don;t even think it uses the same engine as planned for the plane they are currently selling. Nothing is very new, not even the V-tail. Its a waste of time and money - which EAC is terrific at.

D-jet: never produced a jet before. Probably obtaining a lot of inlet data... tough to model, tough problem to resolve.

The Phenom and Mustang were conforming test planes, and both companies have long successful histories of producing jets. No big mystery here.

I guess one would say that even after EAC produced and delivered 100 or more planes, they needed to BUY a non-conforming prototype, and fly it. Amazing for a company that is expert at designing, certifying and producing jets...

Most of the flying world considers eclipse a joke. I have never spoken with anyone in the industry who considers them a great company, which has done great things for aviation. I talk to a lot of people.

The conjet prototype is a joke, built by an outside firm... for PR and Sales. The real learning was shortchanged... then again, its fair to say, EAC does not learn very well.

airtaximan said...

Anyone understand the following:

Dayjet says it needs $40M more to get to scale and profitability.

It says it CANNOT make money before it scales up.

It lays off 1/2 its workforce.
It mothballs 16 of 28 planes.
- isn't this going in the wrong direction if they need to scale UP to be profitable?

I am pretty sure the scale is NOT the back office - this is supposedly handled by automation/computers. There is not scale to be had from this aspect, so all we're left with is pilots and planes. One could argue they need marketing money, but they seem to be happy with the customer base and frequency of flying. (I cannot believe this at around 300hrs per plane per year, but I am willing to learn)

Also, in a business such as this, perhaps one or two planes is a problem, as far as a network and efficiency goes. But, I would think that 28 planes could be considered a fairly large fleet... large enough to demonstrate some level of profitability. Cutting it back to 12 planes only makes it worse, no?

My question is: how come Dayjet cut 1/2 its workforce, and mothballed more than half its fleet, when they need scale to be profitable?

-another observation: if they needed $40M when they has 28 planes, how much will they need to ramp back up, since they mothballed/are selling off $20M worth of planes?

Scratch, scratch.

Dave said...

Eclipse Conjet: hire an outside firm to design and build a one-off, for a stunt. I don;t even think it uses the same engine as planned for the plane they are currently selling. Nothing is very new, not even the V-tail. Its a waste of time and money - which EAC is terrific at.

That's correct. The Con was a PW610F while the EA400 is a PW615F. Eclipse is hoping to get a volume discount because they're buying engines from the PW600 family. Eclipse uses the PW610F in the EA500 while the Cessna Mustang uses the PW615F.

airtaximan said...

421

"If Dayjet bk is imminent, why would the FAA begin a new 5 year program where Dayjet is the backbone of the operation?

Also, why would the FAA invest the equipment in EA500s if EAC is on the brink?"

why did NASA back the Williams tiny engine project with tons of taxpayer money?

http://www.designnews.com/article/CA122211.html

Where's that engine today?
Where's that airplane today?
Where are the companies that banked on this engine?

Should tell you something about the government decisions regarding GA. Probably a leading indicator.

Shane Price said...

avidpilot said...

Correct me if I'm wrong, but it appears that the problem of tires blowing out on landing does NOT lie with Michelin.

Well... kinda sorta maybe.

What's incoming on the blog email says several things.

1. The Great Raburn knows the tires are wrong and is chasing a fix. My source on this is an EAC newsletter to customers in May. Michelin are engaged and may have a readily available alternative which could be certified in short order.

2. The tires are wearing out in 75 to 100 cycles, instead of the planned 500. When I say wearing out, I mean that there is loss of thread to the point where the tyre becomes unsafe. Multiple sources, inside and outside ABQ. Trust me, they can't ALL be wrong.

3. Originally, the FPJ was going to weigh a lot less than it does now. Tip tanks, aero mods and all that extra FSW to hold the thing together will do that for you. However, nobody bothered to update the wheels and tires. Multiple sources, over a long time.

I have a feeling that it's the little things that will cause meltdown in EAC. I suspect that the little ROUND things with air in them might, just might, be the excuse the FAA need to 'review' their position on the FPJ.

Before someone earns a Darwin Award of the posthumous kind.

And this time, I am being serious.

Shane
PS Welcome back Ex 421...

airtaximan said...

CW,

I thought FIKI was guaranteed a week or so away, a few months ago?

Here' we are...back in summer - -tough to find ice again...

I thought someone broke their INDA and posted that FIKI was done, but for the paperwork, and was coming in a week or so... a few months or so ago.

airtaximan said...

Boys and Girls, especially CW:

It occured to me, that Vern cannot believe anyone can figure out what is going on at EAC without having insider confidential information.

Imagine how personally insulting this must be for him - he can't figure out what's going on at EAC, and he has all the insider scoop.

Imagine how this must hurt his head if he really thinks someone breached NDA's and provided the intel, when in fact its not true? Imagine how hard it will be for him to stomach that we have opinions, reason and critical thinking, and we CAN determine what's really going on, without anyone providing more than the PR- BS and 12 years of history to go by.

Once again, its sadder if he really thinks that the opininons and posts he cites requires inside confidential information - it does not.

airtaximan said...

upping the weight, and not revising the wheel/tire/gear/brakes spec is stupid, if not criminal.

If I were the tire company, I'd stop shipping them tires.

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

ATM,

You are spot on - I suspect (as in have no inside information) that the situation in the corner office on Clark Carr Loop (address publicly available) is much like the scene where Professor Marvel is bellowing 'I am the Great and Powerful OZ!' right before Toto pulls back the curtain in the Emerald City (copyright Metro Goldwyn Mayer, 1939).

The part of Professor Marvel and The Wicked Witch of the West are being played by Flyanotologist L. Vern Raburn, Wicked Witch of the East is being played by ETIRC and Eclipse Chairman Roel Pieper, the Flying Monkeys are being played by various members of the Faithful Following (chiefly a certain Southern Californian Dentist who occasionally masquerades as a South Afriken professional pilot), the part of Dorothy Gale is being played by the intredpid Gunner and Toto is being played by all the participants of this blog, both those named in any variation of Vern's attack on the First Amendment and honest criticism, and those not named.

airsafetyman said...

In 1963 an American pilot visited the Dassault factory for the business aircraft division of Pan American to evaluate the new Mystere business jet, which was a development of an early Dassault fighter. The pilot was very impressed with the airplane but suggested that it needed more power, more back-up feaures, and dual tires on the main and nose gear. Dassault listened carefully and made the changes. The Falcon 20 was born and the rest is history. Just shows what can happed when a company that knows what it is doing listens to customers who know what they are doing. The American pilot's name? Charles Lindbergh.

gadfly said...

No one really cares, but I come to a point in the day when there is no point of “further design” on some project . . . my mind has a certain limit, and I have learned to respect it. At that point, I can find a certain “relaxation” in going over the comments on this “blogsite”, and “catching up” (as it were).

“Airtaximan” seems to have a handle on the problem, today. And in his look at “Michelin”, I am reminded that it was “Mr. Bibendum” (first created in 1898) that brought us all “radial tires” back in the late 1940's (1948, if memory serves). To place blame for tire blowouts on “Michelin” is like placing blame on the “Brothers Wright” for all problems related to airtravel. Michelin, and “The Wrights”, gave us opportunity, to press forward.

“Cold Fish” reminds me, that if I were part of the picture, I would be “Toto” . . . along for the ride, observing the “circus of events”, but not too concerned about the outcome . . . except as it affected the “others” around me.

Shane takes the place of “Billie Burke” (in the best sense) . . . the one that guided Dorothy through her perplexing travels and challenges . . . eventually arriving back home in Kansas . . . safe and sound.

We often, in our discussions, get carried away into “other lands” . . . and forget, maybe, that the basic subject is still a dream that has turned into a nightmare . . . a company (a person) that claimed great things, received every opportunity to fulfill those promises, taking vast amounts of money, re-locating hundreds of families, continues to promise great things . . . even expanded the promises to “another level” . . . and yet has not yet produced a single product as promised.

gadfly

(Translation of all comments, freely given, if requested.)

Black Tulip said...
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Charity said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Black Tulip said...

It occurs to me that Eclipse Aviation Critic NG could be missing out on a substantial opportunity. To date, criticism of Eclipse Aviation has been leveled with a sense of resignation… the company and its followers are headed toward ruin and damnation and there’s little to be done, except save a few innocent souls.

Why don’t we turn this into a business opportunity? Collectively the experience on the blog surely exceeds that at Eclipse Aviation in terms of leadership, innovation, engineering, manufacturing, service, sales, marketing, finance and airmanship. Many of the company’s problems were identified and analyzed here long ago - based on publicly-available information and intuition.

Let’s take the tires. They’re too small. The spin-up speed is high even at low V-refs. The footprint is small, the loading large and the plane has gotten much heavier. How would the great minds present solve this problem with a field retrofit?

Okay, I’ll go first. We ship Eclipse owners bigger tires that fit on the same rims. We include detailed instructions including the following:

“Your next task is to enlarge the opening of the main wheel wells on your Eclipse 500. Tape the attached template around the existing opening and trace the inside diameter with a fine-point Sharpie marker. Remove the paper template. “

“Next install a fine-pitch sheet metal blade to your Makita saber saw or Milwaukee Sawzall. Carefully remove the excess sheet metal inside the line you have just traced on the lower skin of the wing. Use great care to remain inside the line as your aircraft has a ‘wet wing’. Stop cutting at the first drip or smell of kerosene and apply the enclosed sealant.”

“Use the sheet metal file provided to clean up the cut edge, passivate the bare metal with phosphoric acid, alodine with ferric chromate, prime and paint with the enclosed touch-up can. We suggest these activities be conducted late at night, and in a closed hangar so that your paint finish will meet factory standards.”

“Thank you for buying an Eclipse Aviation Critic NG product. We’re bloggin’ to keep you flyin’.

Okay, I’ll admit this is only one approach to the problem. May we unleash the greater minds of the blog on this Compelling Opportunity?

Dave Ivedorne said...

If Dayjet bk is imminent, why would the FAA begin a new 5 year program where Dayjet is the backbone of the operation? ... why would the FAA invest the equipment in EA500s if EAC is on the brink?

421-

This news came out in the April 14 issue of AWST (I mentioned it peripherally at some point thereafter). At that time, Dayjet appeared to the general public to be in full-blown startup mode, despite our understanding that something had to be wrong based on the lack of raw numbers. At any rate, Dayjet had yet to announce its severe retrenchment.

Turboprop_pilot said...

BT

How about the Inflato-tire(TM). Instead of cutting FSW parts and hastening their intergrannular corrosion, just run a line from the bleed air with an Avio controlled valve (all electronic of course), which will automatically deflate the larger tires on retraction and reinflate them on extension. Even if they do not reinflate, you'll be no worse off than before.

Vern: Patent applied for- don't sue me like Aspen Aviation.

Turboprop_pilot

Turboprop_pilot said...

Isn't it time for one of the faithful, like Mirage, to come on and say "This blog is dying. Eclipse has proven you all wrong" ???

Turboprop_pilot

chickasaw said...

BT,

If pilots are to blame for the problems, we could sell the co-pilot package as seen in "Airplane". They probably don't have a patent on it.

Dr. Rumack:
Can you fly this plane and land it?
Ted Striker:
Surely you can't be serious.
Dr. Rumack:
I am serious, and don't call me Shirley.

Dave Ivedorne said...

In the spirit of BT's suggestion that we help Vern with solving the FPJ's many problems, I'll take on the tire failure problem:

Redesign them as oversized Rollerblade tires using solid high-durometer neoprene. Can't lose the air abruptly if there was no air to begin with, right? The extra weight could be compensated for one of two ways:

1 - Remove one of the middle row seats.
2 - Pressurize the cabin with helium rather than air. This would have the amusing side effect of entertaining tower controllers (as Alvin & The Chipmunks would call in for clearance to land from time to time).

Of course, solid tires would be substantially noisier, but the noise is no doubt less disturbing than that of a main gear leg snapping as its parent veers off the runway. For customers who still find it objectionable, fit arresting hooks & open up Naval Air Stations to civilian use.

See? No problem...

IANAL

Dave Ivedorne said...

One last landing gear idea:

Fab up some spacers, and run dual stock wheels/tires on each leg. Sure the outboard wheels would extend past the wing bottom when retracted, but Vern could just get the FPJ recertified with a 71,000 ft service ceiling where the drag will be much lower.

Pull around to the second window,
IANAL

smartmoves said...
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smartmoves said...

BT - I’ll go second.....We ship Eclipse owners the FPJ APD kit (All Promises Delivered). We include detailed instructions thus:

“Your next task is to enlarge the "space" occupied by your FPJ. Tape the attached template around the existing FPJ and trace the inside diameter with a fine-point Sharpie marker. Remove the paper template.“

“Next install a fine-pitch sheet metal blade to your Makita saber saw or Milwaukee Sawzall. Carefully remove the ALL excess sheet metal inside the line you have just traced. No need to use great care, speed is of the essence here before some gets hurt. No need to stop cutting at the first drip or smell of kerosene - you'll see why later."

“Use the sheet metal file provided to clean up the cut edge, although if done properly, there should be NO sheet metal left at all."

"Insert the complete FPJ APD kit into the space once occupied (but now enlarged) by your FPJ, attach and polish the supplied badge..."Mustang".

Viola! All promises delivered in a single, complete, simple to install kit. Well, we will need to find you another 30 "paper" knots, but but we think you will find our much higher "average usable speed" to be a more than accepatble deliverable feature.

“Thank you for buying an Eclipse Aviation Critic NG product. We’re bloggin’ to keep you flyin’.

AvidPilot said...

DayJet will work closely with state and federal agencies to develop priorities for airspace procedures and airport capabilities.

Let me get this straight. The same great minds who brought us Dayjet and operated it for all of 6 months before pretty much calling it quits, are now suddenly experts on airspace procedures and airport capabilities?

And, out of ALL of the proven aircraft out there, the FAA selects a jet from a manufacturer that has become the joke of the industry; one with an unreliable autopilot, one that can't fly in icing, one that has tires that blow out on landing, and minimal, mediocre product support?

Does anyone but me find this deal fishy, or am I missing something?

airtaximan said...

BT, Smartmoves,

My solution: fixed gear.

All you need is a blow torch.

airtaximan said...

avidpilot,

from the guys who brought you the FJX-2 later renamed EJ22... later thrown in the garbage.

I guess the cats out of the bag... these are not commercial programs, they are gov't experiments.

Someone forgot to tell the "position-holders".

eclipso said...

Since the pitot tubes seem useless, remove the gear and install tanks of foam in empty wheel wells. Route tubing from the tanks to the existing, forward-facing pitot tubes. Just prior to touchdown, activate the pressurized foam and lightly ease to the foam and VIOLA!!!...it's fixed!

eclipso said...

It WILL take more fuel and power to taxi to the gate...

smartmoves said...

Simple - drop a couple of finely chopped used tyres and some sesame oil into the Stir Fry Machine...presto! The Friction Stirred Doughnut - problem solved.

PS: no need to throw Michelin under the bus, as they are doing a great job under buses all over the world already...

Dave said...

Does anyone but me find this deal fishy, or am I missing something?

DayJet loves lobbyists. They've got lobbyists at both the federal and the state level. Then there's DayJet hiring Bruce Holmes. If DayJet couldn't become a party to the agreement without all that, it would be because Eclipse was already dead instead of just dying. Government beauracrats engaging in fishy deals? We've never seen that before!

easybakeplane said...

Airtaximan said:

"upping the weight, and not revising the wheel/tire/gear/brakes spec is stupid, if not criminal."
---------
Whoa there fella! Dinosaurs around the world increase MTOW and never touch the wheels/tires/brakes. This is especially true if the MLW hasn't been increased. Sometimes it is taken care of by a thing called 'design margin' and sometimes it requires the flight envelope to be cut back to maintain the same loads at higher weights.

And I could personally name at least one a/c with obviousily undersized wheels/tires/brakes (and high Vref) that doesn't have this problem at all. (however it does have auto spoilers and anti-skid!)

As far as possible solutions, my personal favorite would have to be the trusty drag chute! Maybe EAC give away as no-cost upgrade by selling advertising on the chute or charging $$ to put customer logo on it!

FlightCenter said...

The trendline is clear:

Eclipse 500 - twin jet
Eclipse 400 - single engine jet
Eclipse 300 - single engine turboprop


One is reminded of the book "The Cat in the Hat" with Vern playing the title role, introducing a string of ever smaller aircraft that we're told will solve all the problems created by the earlier aircraft.

There is even a cold wet fish in the book who points out that the promises made by the Cat in the Hat just can't possibly be true.

fred said...
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fred said...
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fred said...

flightcenter ...

yes you're probably right ...

Eclipse 100 = lawnmower ! ;-))

fred said...

dave ivedorn wrote :

"1 - Remove one of the middle row seats."


NOW you're in for BIG trouble ...

didn't you know it is a breach of NDA on :

what is the concept of EA400 !!

;-))

fred said...

oooh guys ....

i have read two (?) times the term "VIOLA" and i start to wonder if you mean "VOILA" ?

VOILA has this meaning (+/-) : that's it or this is it or like in "voila , it's done!"..

VIOLA has a very different meaning ...
it is a known fact that Vernperator is a bit litigious ...
it's a well known fact :everything coming out of ABQ is of the best quality ...

so i start to wonder :
do you mean by spelling "Viola" that the "king of the hill of clark loop " is raping is staff , friends , colleagues , investors ... sorry depositors ...??

because viola is the past tense (in french) of "to rape" ! or if you prefer , and in that spelling "RAPED"

is that a reference to Freud's introduction to psychoanalysis , first chapter ?

or do you want to see a battalion of vern's lawyers to (try) charging again ? (for some NDA breach about Him abusing anything coming close to his path ...)

OFF-Course , this is only humor as i know it is not this easy to know other language(s) and if you accept my misspelling , i should do the same with yours ... !


baron95 :

to my knowledge Dassault is OWN at 26% directly by the french state ...

EADS is OWN at XXX% (don't remember and anyway not important but it is in the 5 may be 10 %) by the french state ...

Aérospatial DOES NOT exist anymore !

EADS HAS NO TIES WITH Dassault !

and even if it would be the case , it DOES not concern you !

if you are too disturbed by this or by the fact that the latest has 3 jets instead of 2 (they didn't ask you ? what a mistake !)

i'll suggest you to simply buy Dassault Corp. to have the pleasure to throw under a bus the responsible(s) for such an outrage as not asking YOU first ... !

just for the fun : the name "dassault" is coming from the nickname of the brother of the founder ;Marcel dassault ; who was fighting the Nazi's occupation forces in the "resistance" , his full nickname was "char d'assault" (tank) ...
as a tribute to his brother , the founder had the idea of naming his firm this way ...
later and because he was what vern is never going to be : successful with flying birds , he was allowed to change his family name from Bloch to Dassault ...

"Falcon" name is coming from the fact that when the first "mystere" (the real name of Falcon) went to USA for Show at an airfair , someone suggested the name was much too french-like in a time where frenchs were badly thought-of because France was getting OUT of N.A.T.O. !
(we had the intention to be independent : what a shame !)

one of the representative of Dassault did see an advert in New-York about some "falcon" thing and suggested this name ...

so as a "just return" i would suggest that EA500 would be renamed "trop petite chose presque volante" (too little thing almost flying) or "étron volant" (this is what you [not liquid] do when going to toilets )... or since EA500 is going to be such a huge success in "TOVARICH'S LAND" = Tchiort samalot"

may be that is going to save the "career" of the FPJ ...!

so much fun ...

smartmoves said...

Fred you are right - I meant to say voi la - viola in English means an oversized violin - not as big and melifluous as a cello, and not as small and as thrilling as a violin...sound like anyone you know of?

fred said...

smartmove ...

i was only kidding ...!

i know french is a weird language for most english speakers ...

i was sharing on what went in my (sick) brain when reading ...!! ;-))

eclipso said...

Fred,
I did not know that. Now that I know what it means...VIOLA...(yea, the rape thing)...a mistake that became real

fred said...

something i have seen on Mike press Website :

European Sales
Patrick Van xxxxx
Phone - 32 xxxxxxx= Belgium
Email - xxxxxxxxx

i thought Etirc IS/WAS the SOLE AUTHORIZED VENDOR for this part of world ???

sounds really strange to me ...

tsss ...tsss vernie boy !

is it a way to show to the world that anyone not complying with yours "standards" (so to say) will be taken to court ...

while you don't enforce your own policies to yourself ???

(off-course , this is not aimed at Mike press , i know some here hold him in esteem ...)

fred said...

on top of this :

for someone really wanting a EA500 ,

why in hell would you pay more than 2 Millions $ ...

if you can have this :

Est. Delivery: Q3 2008
Listed Price: 1,750,000
Cabin and Cockpit Furnishing Options: Standard Edition Sixth Forward-Facing Seat
Adjustable Sun Visors
Operative Equipment Options: Part 135 Package
Copilot Package
Class B TAWS
Taxi/Recognition Lights
Lower Fuselage Skid Pads
Additional Options: Stripe Option: S2
Primary Color: Sahara Tan
Secondar Color: Black
Interior: Sahara


as it is stated = much less !!

fred said...
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fred said...

so let's resume a bit :

in past , opportunity to buy a "less than 1 million $ " jet-plane was created ...

then the said opportunity couldn't be delivered ...

then in order to be able to survive for delivering this "opportunity" price had to be raised to its more than double ...

then the "said increase" was probably not being enough , an other "opportunity" was created to allow gullible err... sorry customers to have the choice to switch to a less expensive one ...


then an other "opportunity" to buy the first promise for the price (nearly) of the second arise but WITHOUT the Waiting ...

i think it doesn't that much brain to get the trick about theses offers ...!!

Vern don't ever try to sell your story to "Hollywood" no one would find it credible ...!!

Dave said...

Also in light of DayJet working on NexGen, how safe is it?:
http://themainbang.typepad.com/blog/2007/09/a-view-of-nexge.html
http://themainbang.typepad.com/blog/2007/12/nexgen-stillbor.html

Dave said...

Also there's bad news for New Mexico with after having been taken to the cleaners by Eclipse, they aren't going to get Piper to replace Eclipse:
http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2008/05/30/224297/florida-cash-keeps-piperjet-at-home.html

Dave said...

If Eclipse goes under and leaves the Gainesville Airport high and dry (they've already come close in not paying their rent), they'd lose grant money for the SATS development project there and they'd also have to turn over the airport's revenues to the bankers. It's really rather shameful that Eclipse needlessly burned through cash on the frankenplane while shorting taxpayers at places like Gainesville.

Also with how Gainesville could be impacted with DayJet was that DayJet was planning on having 120 employees at that airport alone.

Companies are free to get into their own boondogles, but when taxpayers are impacted due to fraud or otherwise dishonest business, these scammers should roast.

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

Couple questions for our legal team to consider, along with the broader audience of the media; our fellow bloggers; Eclipse investors, customers, employees and vendors; and anyone else interested in what I believe to be an abuse of process:

1 - How many times will Vern get to waste the Court's time by refining/rebaselining his accusations? Hopefully, the 10 year long continuing saga of the EA-500 design and certification process is not an indicator.

2 - If the sealed court case is not directly related to the attempt to subpoena the private identities of 29, wait 16, wait 14 anonymous bloggers why was it initially included in the complaint to both the NM and CA courts?

3 - Should not the bloggers being asked to forego their first amendment rights to anonymous speech be able to review the sealed court case and determine if they have any knowledge of it in the first place?

4 - Since Eclipse failed to clearly demonstrate (beyond the combined and specious assertions by Vern and his CIO) that any of the blog posts in question actually contained any non-public information, and since we are presumed innocent until PROVEN guilty, is it fair that bloggers have to go back and provide chapterand verse from the public record or identify speculation/opinion/satire in order to prove the statements were not made based all or in part on confidential information?

Not legal questions but interesting questions in general:

5 - Why is Vern, who has essentially seen 60% of his vaporware order book for the EA-500 evaporate in the last 30 or so days being taken seriously by suggesting 800 deliveries per year from the Russian Eclipski Jet factory? He probably does not have 800 orders left to fill (if he ever even had 800 'real' orders to fill in the first place).

6 - Why don't the mainstream aviation media point out the fact that the numbers Vern is throwing around re: the EA-400 (cost, value proposition, production, etc.) are essentially the same as those he initiated, A DECADE AGO, for the EA-500?

7 - When will the mainstream aviation media really dig in to the self-dealing by the NM Investment Council, the DOT of Florida, the FAA, and others in this ongoing sham?

8 - At what point will the long suffering 'diehards' turn the tables on Vern and actually grow a pair and demand the jet they were promised, with the equipment they were promised, and the performance they were promised, at anywhere near the price they were promised?

Inquiring minds want to know.

airtaximan said...

should read the links Dave posted, for a few reasons...

ENtertainment, and lso, you'll see many of the same terms used to descrive the characters in the story...

One begins to see how come the guys/gals pushing NexGen (read NG... sound familiar?) are friends of Vern:

...from the article... redefining "on shedule and on budget"

"That pathetic record of miserable failure and factual obfuscation must have been what gave Madame Blakey the brass stones to lie to Congress when she said, "As we speak...100 percent of our major capital programs are on schedule and on budget" during her testimony before the Aviation Committee on May 10, 2007.

Lucky for American citizens, her testimony was followed by DOT Inspector General Calvin Scovel, who said, "This rebaselining process explains why the Wide Area Augmentation System, according to the FAA logic, is still on budget even though its costs have grown from 892 million to over three BILLION since 1998."

Scovel went on to complete his bare-ass spanking of Blakey by saying, "A simple statement that it is on time and on budget doesn't capture the evolution, and certainly, the taxpayer and the Congress will be interested in that entire story rather than just the sound bite."

- I think COngress has heard a lot of soundbites from a few folks pushing gov't oney for "these" projects...

airtaximan said...

...14 anonymous bloggers

Anyone know who made the cut?

Dave said...

Also did anyone catch Vern's doubletalk where he's said he thinks only professional pilots should fly the Eclipse, but alternatively he blames those same professional pilots for Eclipse tire problems.

This seems to be a non-complete list of everyone Vern has whined about:
* Eclipse management (besides him)
* Eclipse employees
* Eclipse critics
* Eclipse faithful (named in the lawsuit)
* Eclipse professional pilots
* Eclipse non-professional pilots
* Eclipse suppliers
* Eclipse competitors

Vern is a drunken cash arsonist lemur.

fred said...
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ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

Another example of Eclipse not being like the rest of industry - the REAL bizjet OEM's are seeing used aircraft prices higher than the price for newly contracted jets to be delivered in the future.

http://www.avweb.com/avwebflash/news/Report_DemandTurnsJetMarketUpsideDown_198037-1.html

Now that is disruptive.

Way to not be like the dinosaurs Vern - apparently the value proposition for the big boys is not only understood but appreciated by the buyers. Of course, you can actually use the planes they have previously delivered, and without any trips to a service center for multiple IOU's and warranty repairs.

fred said...

coldwet ...

i beg your pardon on commenting your quote N°5 :

"Vern has seen his orderbook shrink 60%...."

yes , but the result is far more damaging ...

vern has accumulated promises and lies one on another ...

so what is the result :

if you are a depositor , you have to make a choice :

grab the cash and run real fast ...

or be proposed a "New disruptive techs , cheap to own , cheap to fly " for a lower price ... at least 3 more years of waiting ... etc...



but all the lies made the "intellectual construction " to collapse is here :

if i am a depositor should i take the E400 proposal ...?

something very probably aimed at saving EAC ...

but if EAC is saved , the few E500 remaining to be delivered are going to be (eventually) delivered ...

so i can have a cheaper brand new E500 for cheaper than the E400 IN
3 YEARS MINIMUM ...! (in case i am NOT a depositor , on second hand market...)

if i get a E500 (because EAC is saved , for the time being ...) my only sensible move would be to try to sell it ...

making E500 cheaper and cheaper than future E400 ( think about inflation = what E400 is sold for today , what is that be worth in 3 years ? in 3 years Vern will claim "it is NOT enough to be profitable ")

at other level if customers wnat to have their E500 , vern has no choices but to scam the E400 to build for the E500 already almost owners...

but then who's going to pay for E400 ??

scratch...scratch ...on my head ...

any ways you take it , it means =

the story is folded ! this is no scoop nor violation of NDA ;-)

Shadow said...

Fred said "one of the representative of Dassault did see an advert in New-York about some "falcon" thing and suggested this name ..."

This man – James B. Taylor – was no mere representative, and he not only branded the Falcon name at Dassault. Taylor is also the reason we call Cessna jets Citations and Bombardier midsize jets Challengers. He is revered by many in the industry as a business aviation marketing genius. Vern can only hope to achieve 1/100th of what Taylor did.

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

Fred, no worrie, your comments are always welcome.

The EA-400 is the deathknell ofr Eclipse as we know it IMO.

I have previously speculated that the run on EA-500 deposits refunds resulting from the Vern Ultimatum will 'involuntarily' put Eclipse into BK, sometime between now and shortly AFTER OSH (or FIKI certification, whichever comes first - you know how Vern always announces bad news after 'good').

No amount of switched or 'new' EA-400 orders can save the company and it is not financially possible as near as I can guess for Eclipse to EVER provide a return-on-investment to the investors-to-date, including ETIRC.

There may be some wierd occult financial mechanisms that allow Eclipse to get so deep into ETIRC as a vendor/partner/secured creditor that Roel ends up holding the ashes after the fire sale, but that level of high-finance is honestly beyond me. The mere number of zero's involved though is downright mind boggling.

My belief at this point is that the e-CONjet/EA-400 and Vern's ultimatum are together intended to kill Eclipse, Ctrl-Alt-DEL and start over.

Dave said...

Also more contradictions from the Drunken Lemur...

His Drunkeness originally touted the use of radial tires on the Eclipse as being better than bias tires due to safety. Now his solution to the tire problem is the bias tires that he had said were second rate.

fred said...

thanks shadow ...!

i am the living example of :

one new thing to be learned every day , when you don't learn anymore (or think you know all ) , you're dead !

the same applies for Marcel Dassault , even in his wildest dreams of world domination (Vernperator ) vern wouldn't achieve a 1/1000 th ...

fred said...

coldwet ...

thanks ...

i think we came (hope we are not the only one ...) to the same conclusion !

E400 is a decoy either to trap new gogo's (unlikely to succeed = too much of the same wording !!)

or a way to fold the whole story WITH a good reason ...

then after say " if only we didn't make the E400 mistake ...."

i believe ( it is only a hunch ,gutt's feeling ) Etirc has distanted the link with EAC ...

they are supposed to have signed the "Ulyanovsk plant " deal on the 6th of June , but there is NO trace of it in russian local whatever ...

if a foreign corp. would come to build a new "Golden Gate" , i guess the locals would speak about it ...

it smell ...

it smell real bad !!

Gunner said...

CWMoR-
Sadly the "innocent until proven guilty" maxim became a historic cliche in America decades ago. Just ask anyone accused of a criminal act by an Alphabet Soup Agency; or anyone sued civilly by an individual like Vern, lacking any shame about the way he spends precious OPM.

And so the answer is "yes". The Courts seem willing to indulge Vern's legal sloth, just as the Depositors and press seem willing to indulge his engineering, marketing and finance sloth. In this, The Age of the Common Man, do-overs are birthright.....unless, of course, you place any value on the name your parents gave you. Vern apparently does not.

I used to think the answer (on the civil side) was reform in the area of frivolous actions, but I like Dave's idea much better....allow single issue non-profit status.

Fortunately, we've not yet descended to the level of a third world nation, where those with the money or power always win. Vern was depending on the sheer weight of legal capital to silence the world of Bloggers. I think he's learning that he's gonna have to burn thru LOTS more money than us in order to maintain this nuisance action.

Still want those names, Vern?
Molon Labe.


Gunner

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

I know what you mean Gunner.

With all the smoke from the money that cash arsonist Vern is Ray-burning we can also quote Leonidas's right hand man Diēnékēs and relax, knowing that 'we shall fight in the shade.'

For your patronage of this fight you remain 'the man'.

Dave said...

I used to think the answer (on the civil side) was reform in the area of frivolous actions, but I like Dave's idea much better....allow single issue non-profit status.

I very much believe in civil litigation reform in addition to changing what types of non-profits there are. Having single-ssue non-profit status could not only cover litigation, but any of a number of short-term topics. There seem to be so many most internet-related things that seem to be calling out for this where either people solicit money privately based on trust or they take on something too unwieldly for their purposes by creating a regular non-profit. Anyway, I see much work to be done on civil litigation, BK, etc...

Dave said...

With all the smoke from the money that cash arsonist Vern is Ray-burning we can also quote Leonidas's right hand man Diēnékēs and relax, knowing that 'we shall fight in the shade.'

I think we few, we happy few should end up better than the 300 on this St. Crispin's Day.

Dave said...

Also more reason Eclipse employees to update their resumes and look for jobs elsewhere...

The plans in Russia are to try and make the Russian plant be a replica of the NM plant. That, however, is only the half of it. The russian plant will be geared toward export. Eclipse is hoping to create a customs zone where parts that are imported in only to be exported out don't have to pay import taxes. Russian buyers would end up paying over 40% more due to regulations, so those planes manufactured there wouldn't be for the russian market.

This really raises the issue though about fraud given how Eclipse touted that it could manufacture 1000 units per year and now that scam is being recycled to 800 units per year. This rival factory looks to compete with NM and could find it replaces NM despite everything Eclipse took from the taxpayers to keep things in NM. Should Eclipse go TU with ETIRC taking over with the factory in Russia, hopefully that will really shine a spotlight on graft, influence peddling and whatnot.

fred said...

dave ...

there is an other detail "not really working" with the plant in russia :

it is not in a "special economic zone" ...

such places have been designed exactly for what was touted ...

i just wonder WHY they have chosen an other place ...

the french car maker "Peugeot" has got such agrement outside of such zones , but it took them almost 2 years to close the deal , the french president had a very good relationship with russian president , few french ministers travelled to russia to "push the matter" , and finally the European Commission specially requested the deal ....

do you think EAC is going to benefit from such extra-careful treatment ?

may be because it is/was the Biggest aviation plant in the whole world ?

as much as the story about Etirc finalizing the deal in beginning June = what a good timing to announce a bad news = E400 !!

AvidPilot said...

It looks like the Russians will be joining Vern's merry band of bagholders when Eclipse finally does go T.U.

As many have pointed out, Eclipse is never going to make a profit for their investors, much less the Russians.

There is no way the bagholders are going to see any money out of Eclipse. Unless, of course, everything I learned in business school and my 30+ years in business is wrong.

Dave said...

it is not in a "special economic zone" ...

Its being turned into a SEZ. The exact location of the SEZ will be the Ulyanovsk-Vostochny Airport and the working name for the SEZ is Volga-Aviacargo. This involves Boeing, Airbus, Volga-Dnepr, Transaero, Inter Logistic, National Logistic Company and of course ETIRC.

airtaximan said...

"Eclipse go TU with ETIRC taking over with the factory in Russia"

even if they just close NM, the plan IS to do exactly as you stated... otherwise, why bother?

Its an insurance policy that eclipse remains in business, somehow, even if its all the way across the world.

This is my read... the deal with etrick is exactly this - remain in business somehow, by stiffing everyone, but continuing in Russia.

Literally, last ditch effort.

PS. if anyone believes there's a market for 1000 (US) plus 800(Russia) built eclipse planes of any and every model... I have a great deal on some land in Florida for you. The mushy kind.

fred said...

dave ...

please source on "SEZ" ...
airbus has no plans to go in Russia (they already aim for China )

if it is sources from such as Jet.ru or Aweb or the like , i urge you to be very cautious ...

in Russia "what is said to be " and "what it is really" are unfortunately 2 differents stories ...

Dave said...

This is my read... the deal with etrick is exactly this - remain in business somehow, by stiffing everyone, but continuing in Russia.

I expect in BK we'll find out that as part of the deal with ETIRC for the financing, that should Eclipse go under that ETRIC basically gets all the relevant assets because those assets are exempt. Then there could be all sorts of related issues, like if the assets actually are exempt or if fraud was used to make them that way. The possibilities are endless.

Dave said...

please source on "SEZ" ...
airbus has no plans to go in Russia (they already aim for China )


It's here on the Russian government's SEZ website citing Interfax:
http://eng.rosoez.ru/news/media/162049/

fred said...

dave ...

i asked you about sources on Russian "Sez" because last time i have been speaking with someone from high above in rodina , they were seeking infos on such things (as special bizz places) around the world ...

i was one of the many to say : " it is useless " as most of time firms benefiting from such special conditions are not really meant to stay for much longer than the special conditions occurs ...

exactly the same in NM , EAC took tax-payers , but roi is null , not to even mention possible frauds ...

and now as a way of saying "thanks" , they say "bye " ...!

exactly what the russians were thinking about such "SEZ" , in theirs eyes it was /is a golden way to failure ...

they (at the time i had this talk , few weeks ago) were thinking of abolishing such special measures , and instead make general rules lighter everywhere in the federation ...

one of the guy i had talks with , said :"we are fed-up of seeing Russians and foreigners take in our pocket for a show in the form of "new industries , business , plant etc " , then to see them going to London or French riviera or swiss ...and leave ex-employees in a worst conditions than before ...

we are NOT interested in firms or Peoples who have a try or come for only ONE SHOT overnight ..."

so i am a bit surprised they would do exactly the opposite of what was planned !

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