Sunday, June 8, 2008

The Fan Club get restive

Now that the judge has stayed our ‘motion to quash’ until the first of August, I think it’s time to review what Vern’s fan club are thinking. Clearly, to be a fully paid up member you need to have demonstrated below average intelligence and have a lot of cash lying around that you are willing to blow. Putting aside these obvious qualifications as future winner of the coveted Darwin Award, you must also believe Vern's fairy tales.

So, what have this merry band of owners/position holders been saying to each other since Vernicius the First put his hand in their pockets for the Con Jet? For a change, the ‘fan club’(his term, not mine) reacted poorly. It would appear that many have decided to cut their losses and run. They can of course now do this, as the price increase triggers a ‘refund event’, which is probably why Vern waited so long before he finally did the logical thing. The next group are prepared to wait for the Fisher Price Jet which MIGHT come their way, even at the higher price announced last week. Seems a bird in the hand is still worth more than two in the bush. Very few, if any, want to wait another 3 years (probably more) for the Con Jet. They are also very miffed that you can’t get anyone from ‘Customer Care’ to talk to once you’ve decided you want your money back. A desire to become an ex customer will do that to you every time….

You will be glad to hear that some of ‘them’ are finally convinced that ‘we’ were right. Even our old dentist friend thinks that The Great Raburn is dumping on his long suffering supporters. I can also confirm that several owners and position holders have joined us in another way. Lawyers are being hired all over the place, with EAC as the target. Seems that Vern going after us might have given his 'fans' similar ideas....

Mike Press, on the other hand, is having a field day. Positions, which have early serial numbers are changing hands because of the price increase. Sort of a ‘dead cat bounce’ I suppose. Although the blog has always maintained that a price increase was one of the few sensible things Mr. Raburn could do, he can’t do it again in the short term. EAC needs cash, and lots of it, to survive. Informed speculation has it that The Duke of New Mexico has indeed managed to find more money from somewhere in the recent past. If true, I would be most interested to hear the detail, to the usual address.

Tires are becoming a really, really big pain. An FPJ with three passengers, along with the poor pilot, had an incident this week in Midway. Loosing one tire on touchdown is, how shall we say, interesting. Blowing two is bound to raise the excitement level a notch or three, especially in such a small cabin. Nothing too special, one would think, with the number of tires your average FPJ will chew through. However, it appears the thought police in EAC have issued strict instructions that NO communications take place with the outside world on this subject. When you see reactions like this from a company, to what is a pretty standard event (OK, I‘m sure that pilot was unimpressed) you begin to suspect there is ‘no smoke without fire’. Why try to hush up something, unless there is more going on?

On a practical note, I think Gunner, and his excellent lawyer Norman, deserve our gratitude for their work on our collective behalf. However, I am coming around to the view that Gunner should not be left alone in supporting this financial burden and I would, on behalf of the blog, welcome offers of assistance. Helpful suggestions to the usual address, eclipsecriticng@gmail.com.

Finally, as the summer (at least here in the northern hemisphere) moves towards the longest day I would like to wish you all pleasant weather, good flying and plenty of ‘quality time’ with your families.

282 comments:

«Oldest   ‹Older   201 – 282 of 282
Dave said...

Q. How do you know when Vern is lying?
A. His lips are moving:
Raburn said the establishment of an assembly facility in Russia will not alter Eclipse's current operations or plans in Albuquerque.

"This is not a matter of outsourcing or moving production somewhere else," Raburn said. "It's the opposite -- it's an acceleration, an expansion of Eclipse's business plans. We are not in any shape, form or fashion planning to ramp down production or change our presence in Albuquerque."

On the contrary, Raburn said the company has reversed the layoffs it reported last fall, bringing its Albuquerque employment totals back up to over 1,600 workers. In fact, the company expects to hire about 700 more people in Albuquerque in 2008, Raburn said.

http://www.etirc.ru/cms/index.php?cms_show=module&cms_id=datamodule&module_source=news&template=news_long&action=view_item&id=108&lang=tr

How long will it be until questions are asked by the MSM and the politicians as this is simply ridiculous? Eclipse is now claiming 1800 units manufactured per year and 3800 employees between Russia and ABQ. This is not going to be pretty and people should stop enabling Vern as he becomes more and more of a lunatic. This rhetoric has gotten even crazier than before Eclipse started manufacturing.

airtaximan said...

Dave,

if somehow Etrick licensed the rights to produce the eclipse planes... they have circumvented the BK process... this is my understanding. They can and will produce planes...

Will it be profitable? You guess is better than mine...

Will they worry about any old debts? Nope.

Just continue to prodce planes in Russia, sell them and make money.

Something tells me, Vern probably owns some part of the deal with Etrick. Just a hunch.

Dave said...

if somehow Etrick licensed the rights to produce the eclipse planes... they have circumvented the BK process... this is my understanding. They can and will produce planes...

It would depend on the terms of the deal of the financing. If any other Eclipse rights were put up as collateral for say a loan, it would be legal so long as there weren't any other shenanigans involved. The ETIRC deal has been described as an equity deal, but if there was any debt involved, defaulting on that debt could result in other rights being handed over to ETIRC.

Orville said...

I just realized how fascinating this whole story is. It keeps me coming back to my browser and hitting 'refresh' all day long just to read the next post - and I'm just a casual observer with no skin in the game.

Makes me wonder how much time VR and his staff are spending here...?

Bet they can't get anything done. (actually, guess there's proof of that) Maybe they'll end up blaming the blog for their demise. "It was just too distracting."

airtaximan said...

other equity and debt or theirs, nothing will stop them from building planes (at their cost) if they have a license to do so. Its Russia... go stop them.

fred said...

it is local govt .

which means the "big money" is not around (regions need to have Moscow approval for getting into such project !)

which start to give some explanations on "The ties with Russian government EAC has ..."

translated in Vern's language ; we met with local official = technically speaking they ARE govt , so we can claim we have Russian Govt in our pocket ! " as long as no one ask a silly question : "are you talking about CENTRAL federation GOVT ? "

(a bit if i would talk to a county's sheriff in Iowa , go back to Europa and claim i can be invited in the White-House for diner ...)

such proceeding has to be agreed by
Douma , that is the most difficult part ...


but more simply , just ask your self a simple question :

"what the Russian would gain in such a move ? "

if they have Airbus or/and Boeing , they'll have access to all techs they need ...

Workers ? one of the big problem of Russia is their lack of peoples .... dying young , more women than men , so not enough babies ...and so on , make the Worker's problem almost irreverent ...

and in the link , they state about 152 Millions $ to be invested from Etirc ...

who would be crazy enough to roll the dice on a 152 M$ bet ?

for what results ? a very unfinished , uncertified jet which has not enough range to be really practical in Russia ...

no , russians are a bit "wild" but not that much ....


i would suggest a "delay" in posting (like in the announce for dayjet ) or more bluntly that someone got a little "cash envelop"
to get the thing published one way or an other .... (bribery is STILL a big problem in Rodina ..)

but off-course , i can be wrong !!!
i just don't see why peoples would be so stupid as burning so much money for an other " in that many years , we will build such a magnificent product , everybody will be fighting to get one ...in that many YEARS ....!"

Dave said...

Also just to re-emphasize how Eclipse isn't a secure place to work with Vern not to be trusted, here he is speaking to a non-ABQ publication about the benefits of outsourcing particularly for Eclipse:
“We’re no different from
Boeing,” says Vern Raburn,
president and chief executive
of Eclipse Aviation. “The
right way to build an airplane
is to outsource manufacturing.”

http://media.ft.com/cms/b16018da-265f-11dd-9c95-000077b07658.pdf
The Financial Times is a foreign publication.

Now compare to what Vern says in domestic publications:
"This is not an outsourcing strategy," he said. "This is a fundamental acceleration and expansion of Eclipse's business plan."
Eclipse now has 1,600 employees in Albuquerque, including workers rehired after being laid off last October. The company is set to hire 700 additional employees this year, Raburn said.

http://www.aviation.com/business/080115-eclipse-aviation-investment.html

Now what makes more sense...there being thousands of Eclipse employees making over 1000 units per year or that Vern is sneakily planning for the time when a bunch of pink slips are going to be sent out - perhaps under the cover of BK? Keep in mind Vern's latest claims are far greater than prior to Eclipse starting manufacturing. Occam's Razor says Vern is deceiving lots of people...

Dave said...

other equity and debt or theirs, nothing will stop them from building planes (at their cost) if they have a license to do so. Its Russia... go stop them.

I'm taking about ETIRC taking over the US market. Without the rights, they couldn't be imported into the US and could file international claims to prevent those planes from being distributed outside the 60 country ETIRC/Eclipse agreement. If there's any secured debt involved and Eclipse defaults, ETRIC could legally import the Eclipske to the US.

fred said...

no definitely ...

what some see this as a brilliant company (EAC) that every body is praying to get on its soil ...

i see only Self-inflated Ego !

actually , i am not even sure that in a real meeting with real "top-notch from bizz" most would accept to seated at the same table than Vern ...

if not for the purpose to get "entertained for a while " ...

and about asset ...

which one are you talking about ?

if anything is "removed" from USA in a not really ethical manner ...

not sure they are not cutting themselves of their best nest of potential customers ...

for Russians customers = not interesting !

for European = even if baron say opposite , No EASA = NO CLIENTS !

fred said...

the whole thing is only decoy over decoy ...


something like :

"no worries to have ... Russian plant will save us all ... they have all the money they need ... so it is safe to bet on eclipse ... of course , we know HOW vern has been bad ... we fired him ... in fact he is , with a rag , cleaning the windshield of planes in baboushka's land ..."


watch me in the eyes ...

watch me in the eyes ...

watch me in the eyes ...

and send in your checks ...

;-))

airtaximan said...

Dave,
I simply don't thin Etrick has any lmitations on where they can sell the planes, only where they can manufacture them.

Imagine you have a non-complete with a company that is no longer in business...

Just speculation....

Dave said...

I simply don't thin Etrick has any lmitations on where they can sell the planes, only where they can manufacture them.
Imagine you have a non-complete with a company that is no longer in business...
Just speculation....


I understand now. Whether by defaulting on secured debt or having a non-compete with a company that no longer exists would still accomplish the same thing of ETIRC taking over. Vern of course will be secured in that he'll get a job with ETIRC that keeps on paying him lots of money while everyone else gets left in the cold...particularly cold since NM wasn't able to secure Piper to replace the jobs left by Eclipse when it goes under.

No wonder Eclipse is treating their employees like criminals. They don't want their employees to put the pieces together. It serves Vern's interest to string them along until the hammer falls, but it hurts everyone else.

fred said...

dave ...

i was VERY curious about your link ...

so i just called a good buddy REALLY in Russian matter ( i woke him up , but nothing that cannot be fixed by some friendly treatment!)

the reality of the link is even more funny than i thought :

it is NOT AT ALL FROM SEZ agency ...

it is from a news agency ...

sounds like the story of the guy who have seen the guy who have seen the guy who have seen the guy ....
who killed the beast ...!!

good try vern !!

Dave said...

I'm seeking clarification on the Eclipse's SLAPP lawsuit....

I believe earlier it was reported that Eclipse is now claiming the NM lawsuit isn't related to the California action. What exactly is Eclipse claiming now in regards to the California action and the NM lawsuit?

airtaximan said...

competition for dayjet? at their main base airport, in their back yard... prhaps they'll want toget rid of more planes?

"North American Jet Charter Group opens VLJ Air Taxi base in South Florida
Jun 11, 2008 9:52 AM

North American Jet Charter Group, LLC today announced the delivery of its first Florida-based Eclipse 500 Very Light Jet. Based at Boca Aviation at Boca Raton Airport (BCT), the 2 pilot / 4 passenger VLJ is available for charter services to the Bahamas and other regional destinations.

“We are very pleased to offer the South Florida market the first whole-plane VLJ air taxi service, “said Ken Ross, the company’s CEO and President. “The Eclipse is the ideal aircraft for people who want to travel to the islands or to destinations within 500 miles. Its low operating costs and light carbon footprint make it an affordable alternative to scheduled airline service and a great way to reach hard-to-reach destinations. And for people used to chartering larger jets, they’ll be astonished at the value.”

Phil Mathews, President of Air Partner, a leading global air charter provider with US headquarters in Fort Lauderdale, believes the Eclipse will greatly enhance the charter market in South Florida. He commented, “The Eclipse will undoubtedly bring the significant benefits of private charter to a new segment of travelers, while offering a very cost-efficient alternative for shorter trips to our existing customers.”

North American Jet Charter Group plans to expand its VLJ fleet to accommodate the increasing number of Eclipses being delivered throughout the United States. “Our expertise in managing and operating the Eclipse enables us to put aircraft on our Part 135 certificate in less than a week. We’re actively seeking additional aircraft to base in Florida and other parts of the country,” said Ross.

In June 2007, the company operated the world’s first passenger revenue flight on a VLJ. Since then, North American Jet has expanded its VLJ fleet to six, with 5 Eclipses based at Chicago Executive Airport."

taken from http://theaircharterjournal.com/

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

Competition or cooperation?

Will there be wailing and knashing of teeth or shared resources?

They are, reportedly, targetting slightly different types of travellers and are surely offering different business models.

Where one has reduced its' fleet by 60% one has increased it by 20% and is actively asking for more aircraft to be under management.

Yes, I know managed aircraft are not the tax shelter the neophytes are led to believe, but give the North American Jet guys credit for trying.

More questions than answers here.

Dave said...

Competition or cooperation?

This is the group that got virtually no attention due to DayJet:
Eclipse, manufacturer of the EA-500 VLJ has been waiting for more than eight years to have its aircraft actually become approved to fly charter passengers, yet the company's website fails to mention North American Jet Charter as the first charter operator to receive FAA approval to use the EA-500 for on-demand charter services. This journalist sent Eclipse Aviation an email earlier in the day, asking for a response; Eclipse refused to comment.
http://www.charterx.com/resources/article.aspx?id=2911

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

I remember that Dave, clearly.

This in a way reminds me of the tortoise and the hare. The North American Jet guys have the advantage of 'managed' aircraft and a far more conventional charter concept from a business plan/business model point of view - their only disruptive choice is the platform being recommended.

With the population and size of FL I simply refuse the choice of Boca is coincidental. Either it is intended to be the first blow in a coup de grace of a dozen knicks, or it is intended to allow the two parties to work towards the economies of scale DJ has always claimed as necessary - even if one plane at a time, even if somebody elses' plane.

What is obvious in terms of Eclipse and DJ is that logic, physics and conventional decision making simply cease to exist, literally the business equivalent of a farraday cage.

This has been stone cold verified and validated by none other than the Vernperor his damn self in his selection of posts to claim as proof of inside information - e.g., $1.3B+ in wasted investment, attempted theft of intellectual property of vendors, trouble with vendors demanding higher prices for lower than promised volumes, and so much more.

PawnShop said...

So Etirc has the rights to build their own FPJ, even if the Original Greater Albuquerque Incomplete Aircraft Works goes "face up".

What is this thing that Etirc would be allowed to build?

-It's uncertified in Europe.
-It blows tires with frightening regularity.
-Its avionics capability is exceeded by the Skyhawk I flew yesterday.
-It's not FIKI-capable, which is pretty much a prerequisite for a turbine aircraft.
-Its TC is of suspect provenance - the House Transportation Committee is meeting at this very moment investigating various shenanigans in the FAA.
-Not a single conforming aircraft has been delivered - for numerous values of "conforming".
-It has a grossly misrepresented (and profoundly shrinking) "waiting list", which somehow is never updated to reflect reality.
-Its pitot/static system holds more water than New Orleans' 9th Ward, which leads to the avionics telling the pilot to crash the airplane.
-It has demonstrated an unsuitability for the kind of rapid/mass production that made the project appealing to investors in the first place.
-Its service history is unknown: apparently those people who ponied up for one & took delivery are forbidden by NDA from discussing concerns & grievances outside the cozy confines of the "Eclipse 500 Owners Club" (whose very website is owned by Eclipse). Are people actually "buying a plane", or are they merely licensing the right to mutely operate one - and at much greater expense (ignoring fuel prices) than was originally represented to them?.

Gosh, if I was Etirc, I'd want to waste no time spending a couple hundred million getting a new factory built so I could exploit the rights I paid so dearly for.

Would you like some irony with that sarcasm?
IANAL

PawnShop said...

I believe earlier it was reported that Eclipse is now claiming the NM lawsuit isn't related to the California action. What exactly is Eclipse claiming now in regards to the California action and the NM lawsuit?

I don't think we're sure. Al's brief report of the hearing included: "1. Per agreement of the parties, Judge Manoukian: (a) ordered Eclipse's attorney to immediately give the Does' attorney a copy of the Complaint that initiated the litigation; and (b) ordered the Does' attorney not to show the Complaint to anyone, not even his clients. (The Complaint has never been filed in the California court. It was filed under seal in the New Mexico court back on March 18.)"

I suppose under some novel theory, Eclipse might try to claim that they're unrelated - but then the California court would have to answer any questions regarding why a subpoena exists, and under what authority it showed up on a California docket. At least as likely, Eclipse is being asked why a California action (which under Blogger TOS is governed by California law) is being directed by a New Mexico court under seal?

Another possibility is that the discussion is being blurried by the existence of yet another Eclipse lawsuit, "Eclipse vs Composite Systems" (NM docket # D-202-CV-200802747), which was filed two days after the blogger lawsuit.

IANAL

Dave said...

I find this even funnier about NextGen:
http://www.popularmechanics.com/science/air_space/4232577.html
Yeah, our already spotty cell phone service should be combined to do double duty and also support air traffic control. With the [corrupt] decision-making process used by those in the government, is it any wonder that DayJet got signed on?

AvidPilot said...

AvioNG is already starting to look a little dated, especially compared to Cirrus’s Garmin 1000 panel.

Now THAT is a panel!

Baron95 said...

Airtaximan said ... Baron... I would not say this - this is not me... just for the record.

AT, my apologies to misquote you. I must have gotten you and airsafetyman confused.

Baron95 said...

Dave said... The ETIRC deal has been described as an equity deal, but if there was any debt involved, defaulting on that debt could result in other rights being handed over to ETIRC.


These days there are very few pure private equity deals, specially for distressed companies, like Eclipse. The ETIRC deal, most likely is a convertible debt/equity deal, and I'd be willing to bet ETIRC is a secured creditor and will get preference on any Eclipse asset liquidation.

Baron95 said...

Why this obscession with the ETIRC deal? It is a global economy. Who cares if A330s are assembled in Tolouse or Alabama, or if the Phenon is Assembled in Sao Paulo or Florida oe if the Eclipse is assembled in NM or Russia or both?

Really, who cares? What matters is that the plane is 1) Complete and Quality Built and 2) Supported by a viable facility.

And who cares is the Eclipse is assembled from outsourced components or in-house built components?

You guys try to spin everything as a broken promise or a negative. Geez.

You do much better when you stick to fundamentals. What is the tire fix? How is Avio going to be competitive with G1000-SVS? What is the real order book? Etc.

So many valid issues. Why try to create some, where there is none.

Baron95 said...

In the news (revent AW&ST issue) SOCATA CEO says they are ready to announce a twin a bit bigger than the TBM850. Strugling with the configuration (turboporp or fan jet).

Also, most G1000 OEMs are pricing Garmin's SVS at under US$10K. I think that is tremendous value. And to think that just last year only the G550 had Synthetic Vision.

Also on AW&ST, FAA and EASA are considering allowing SVS equiped part 135/121 to descend to 100AGL without runway environment in-sight. The new rules may be as far as enabling SVS-equipped part 135/121 to initiate the approach with less than required minimuns. This can be a revolution that will finally make the airlines invest in SVS.

And once again I ask. How is Eclipse going to get there? When the DA-40 for $250K has a fully integrated cockipit/FMS with SVS and the now $2.15M EA500 has a 1990s G400. WOW!!!

Dave said...

You do much better when you stick to fundamentals...

So many valid issues. Why try to create some, where there is none.


I don't know if you're simply being argumentative or if you're selectively reading what I've posted, but this has very much to do with the fundamentals. The US goverment agencies are being told Eclipse will produce 600+ here in the US while employing 1500+ while the Russian government agencies are being told basically the same thing with 800 units per year and 1500 employees. The units produced per year and sold per year along with total market size is a most fundamental issue by Eclipse's own admission and this could point to outright fraud. Do you really think Eclipse claiming there will be 3000+ employees and 1400+ EA500s manufactured a year to be a non-issue? My guess is that it is safer to ones health to defraud US government agencies than to defraud Russians unless you want to end up dead under mysterious circumstances. This combined with Vern saying in the US that Eclipse's Russian plant isn't part of an outsourcing strategy while saying to non-US publications that Eclipse outsourcing is the smartest way to go. This blog has been talking about production rates for years and it is even part of the Eclipse v Doe litigation that Gunner is spending his hard-earned money on, so I don't see how it is remotely irrelevant to talk about now.

airtaximan said...

should be required reading...

http://www.the-
jet.com/philosophy.html

-shows history
-design philosophy/issues with single engine jets

Basically gives credit where credit is due (unlike some others) and respects the history.

Also shows a nice chart of mini-bizjets vs Persoanl jets.

I'd like to see the props shown, just for good measure, but that's my own problem!

Shane, perhasp this is a new thread - show the Cirrus link, just to show a comparison between the evolution and revolution. Evolutionary wins everytime!

airtaximan said...

Baron,

me thinks you miss the pont.

No way any facotry is needed for more than 100-200 planes per year out of EAC, let alone one is Russia.

I personally think everyone in the know, knows THIS of all things. Especially since Dayjet has stopped requiring Eclipse's.

So> Why Russia, why ETRICK?

There has to be an answer... and it was probably planned long ago.

I think it has more to do with fallout, than expansion.

Just a hunch.

Dave said...

There has to be an answer... and it was probably planned long ago.
I think it has more to do with fallout, than expansion.
Just a hunch.


Exactly. Hundreds of people stand to lose their jobs while Vern plays a shell game where he'll probabl end up just fine with his old buddy. I think Vern is thinking that people wont add up Eclipse's claims about Russia and Eclipse's claims about ABQ to see it looks way worse and more extravagant than even Eclipse's old claims of 1000 units per year. Hopefully those like the Teal Group will pick up on Eclipse's combined claims and speak out so that this ends up in the press.

airsafetyman said...

"Who cares if A330s are assembled in Tolouse or Alabama, or if the Phenon is Assembled in Sao Paulo or Florida oe if the Eclipse is assembled in NM or Russia or both?"

Well, the A330 has a US type certificate as well as an EASA one. Since it has a US certificate, once the facility is certified by the FAA they are in business. If it only had the EASA certificate and Airbus wanted to build A330s here they would have to have their facility certified by EASA.
Eclipse only has a US certificate, and is not likely to get an EASA certificate soon. If it is to be assembled in Russia the plant will have to be certified by the FAA. Good luck with that.

FlightCenter said...

"Question: What are the steps to fixing a broken brand personality?

Answer: There is one common factor that nearly every company which has a broken brand personality will share, and that is that they have an "employee silencing policy." When you keep your biggest potential evangelists from talking about your product or service, you are stifling your personality. To get past this, you need to let them share their voices."

This quote comes from an interview between Guy Kawasaki and Rohit Bhargava. Guy Kawasaki was quoted by Vern during the E400 announcement. Rohit is a founding member of the pioneering 360 Digital Influence team at Ogilvy.

http://www.sun.com/solutions/smb/guest.jsp?blog=brandpersonality

fred said...

airsafety wrote :

"Eclipse only has a US certificate, and is not likely to get an EASA certificate soon. If it is to be assembled in Russia the plant will have to be certified by the FAA. Good luck with that."

you just reminded me of the first Frictions i had with a (then) Russian Official ...

basically ( to make a long story short) i had the "arrogance" to tell him he was wrong on a certain subject ... (i knew perfectly well time would prove him wrong )

so he told " do you know what , we russians , are the best at ? to throw peoples back in their planes out !"

(now the guy is living in London , and is not welcome to go back to Russia unless it is to serve time in Jail...)

the whole thing is ONCE AGAIN a MARKETING STUNT !

take a deep breath ...

ok , so unlike what Baron wrote : even if some would LOVE others to believe it ...

the place WHERE a plane (or any item used to put Crowds safety at risks , i know E500 isn't able to cater for crowds , but just try to imagine an E500 having a "blue screen , please reboot your system"
while flying over New-York city ...)

in order to avoid at the maximum such case, planes HAVE to be CERTIFIED ...

1 million dollars question :

" Who is going to certify the russian plant ?"

Russians =

take a long time , much longer than the EASA process , and there is LOTS of chances , the russians would take the european agency as a reference to decide the yes or no ...

Europeans =

why the f...k would they certify a plant to build a plane which is NOT certified ?

FAA :

on what ground the FAA would have any rights to go abroad to say " ok !you, you're good enough ...you , you're too bad , get lost "

at the same time the last attempt from a US something tried to mess with Russian something ( the Youkos case ) a lawyer accredited by a US judge was trying to demonstrate WHY the Youkos assets couldn't be seized in the name of US justice ...

i wasn't there myself , but someone told me that the answer from the Russian Judge was :

"tell to that p...k to f...k out "


no the whole story is once again a marketing stunt ...
off-course , i cannot play my life on such conclusions ...

(when i write "cannot play my life" i am not saying anything about the amount of prejudicial ideas some seems to have on "potential mysterious death" and about the fact it is underlining this " you shut up or we kill you !" the Russian Government does NOT need to kill any foreigner ... they just throw them out of the country !!!and basically speaking they don't give a shit on what others are going to think , abroad...)

but it is pretty obvious to ME that the amount of lies and over-promises make the situation with not too many escape left ...

hence a very plausible explanation for the erratic behavior ...!!

just because we are at the point where a new lie has lots of trouble to cover an old lie ...!

fred said...

and i think i must add this :

IF Etirc has that much Connections and Power ...

Why don't they "push" EASA to get it done ?

the Etirc's CEO is an European citizen ...with presumably lots of connections in business ...

is this related with an old french farmers saying =" it is always better to talk about a castle you have in a far-away land than about the shack in the backyard " ?

or if this related with "an idea" that Russians are a kind of "puppies like" just waiting , praying and crawling to get all the fantastic new technology (ies) on the E500 ?

ah , my little finger is calling me to remind me : there ISN'T anything special on E500 that cannot be bought or found without spending so much money and it spare the embarrassment ...!!

Baron95 said...

Dave said...
You do much better when you stick to fundamentals...

So many valid issues. Why try to create some, where there is none.

I don't know if you're simply being argumentative or if you're selectively reading what I've posted, but this has very much to do with the fundamentals. The US goverment agencies are being told Eclipse will produce 600+ here in the US while employing 1500+ while the Russian government agencies are being told basically the same thing with 800 units per year and 1500 employees.


Hi Dave. That comment was by no means directed at you. I find most of your posts to be very informative and serious. It was directed at the blog as a whole and this obscession in trying to make a conspiracy out of a simple decision to assemble the jet closer to European markets. It is no big deal. Just like Embraer will employ 200 in FL to assemble/complete Phenoms, ETIRC will do the same - there is nothing more to the story. The governments on NM and the Russian city have to do their own due dilligence. Eclipse is TOTALLY FREE to put forward the best case, most optimistic forecasts.

I don't know what "US GOvernment Agencies" Eclipse is telling what. Eclipse is under no obligation to disclose any plans to any US Government Agency. If they shoose to share a forecast/prediction on VLJs, it is just that - an opinion. Just like JP Morgan gives an opinion to the Fed as to what they thing Oil will trade at next year or what they think the housing price decreases will be. Nothing more, nothing less.

fred said...

baron wrote :

"Why this obscession with the ETIRC deal? "

very simple : check ALL the versions served about this firm ...

it is amazing HOW of a "far-away in a mysterious land of enchantment " decoy the different version have been ...

and by the way :

Etirc AVIATION does exist only by the wishes of a guy who was in something TOTALLY different

(software [but a failure] and finances [but nothing of real importance done to date])

so for me (yes it is only an opinion !) it sounds very much like someone else in NM ...

"aaaahh , this morning i woke-up not knowing on what i would spend hundreds of millions on ...

i went to toilets and a paper roll felt on my head ...

it gave me the idea of building a new jet that would revolutionize the whole world ...!"


which by the way sounds exactly like the "Auction" from EAC and the danish guy , who is reportedly supposed to have " sitted in front of computer and found this object(my godness is that what they call a plane ?) to sale ... and fond it "funny" to spend a million or 2 on something he cannot use ...!

i tell you , ONLY marketing ... the whole story can be more or less resumed as this

"Tomorrow or the day after , we'll shave everybody for free and give lunch on same terms ..."

fred said...

baron wrote :

"It was directed at the blog as a whole and this obscession in trying to make a conspiracy out of a simple decision to assemble the jet closer to European markets."

an other million $ question :

"What is the point to get closer to a market WHICH DOESN'T EXIST ?"

am i staring to wonder If "vern" is not your middle name ? ;-))

fred said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
fred said...

baron wrote :

"Eclipse is TOTALLY FREE to put forward the best case, most optimistic forecasts."

yes absolutely correct !

but is that supposed to be any kind of ethical when survival of firm/project is linked with statement ?

yes , any firms in the "free" world has the right to do so ...

at the condition they play with their own money ...!

because , you see , playing with INVESTOR money is somehow VERY DIFFERENT than playing with CUSTOMERS money ...

smartmoves said...

Vern has a protege although still "wet" behind the ears....check out the "buy your model" section...

Maybe the fix for the FPJ tyre is to make it an seaplane?

http://www.avweb.com/avwebflash/news/ICON_A5_amphibianLSA_VernRaburn_Rollout_198097-1.html

http://www.iconaircraft.com/buy-your-model.html

smartmoves said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
smartmoves said...

I should add I think the Icon looks really hot! If it had 4 seats, did 200kts and had a proper panel I would buy one for sure...

airjet said...

CPC No. 500-2008-010 Throttle Lever Force June 9, 2008
Page 1 of 1
CPC Form
Rev A 09/18/07
2503 CLARK CARR LOOP SE
ALBUQUERQUE, NM 87106
TEL 505 724-1200
WWW.ECLIPSEAVIATION.COM
Customer Pilot CPC No. 500-2008-010
Communication Date: June 9, 2008
Subject:
Throttle Lever Force
Model:
EA500
Effectivity:
All Aircraft
THIS IS NOT AN ECLIPSE AVIATION SERVICE BULLETIN.
1. PURPOSE:
This CPC is issued by Eclipse Aviation to provide timely aircraft operational information to Eclipse aircraft
operators. It is for informational purposes only, and all recommendations are advisory in nature.
2. SUMMARY:
An Eclipse 500 pilot recently experienced a dual engine control failure after applying forward force on the
throttle levers resulting in exceeding the design throttle range of operation. This situation resulted in an
inability to control engine thrust through normal means. Eclipse is working with the NTSB to investigate
this occurrence, but is issuing immediate guidance to Eclipse 500 pilots to avoid excessive forward
throttle force against the throttle stops.
3. BACKGROUND:
Following a reported windshear encounter on final approach, an Eclipse 500 pilot applied full throttle using
enough force against the forward stops to result in exceeding the design throttle position signal maximum
range. This out-of-range position signal for both throttles subsequently activated the ENG CONTROL FAIL
CAS message for both engines. Since this fault mode was caused by invalid position signals, the system
logic held the engine thrust settings at the last known throttle position, which was maximum.
Following a balked landing, execution of the L(R) ENG CONTROL FAIL checklist, and shutdown of one
engine, the pilot was able to return around the pattern and land the aircraft with no injury or substantial
damage, although both main tires were blown during the event. Initial throttle quadrant testing indicates a
force in excess of 30 pounds against the forward stops is required to cause the out-of-range condition.
4. ECLIPSE ACTION:
After becoming aware of this occurrence, Eclipse immediately notified the NTSB and FAA. An Eclipse
Safety Investigation Team was dispatched to the aircraft and is currently participating as a party to the
NTSB investigation. In accordance with NTSB rules, we cannot divulge details of the investigation, but we
are aggressively working to determine the root cause and implement permanent corrective actions. We are
also working on an immediate Temporary Revision (TR) to the Airplane Flight Manual (AFM) to address this
situation. In the meantime, we have determined that communicating this issue to operators now is essential
in preventing a similar occurrence.
5. RECOMMENDED OPERATOR ACTION:
Eclipse 500 operators should avoid applying excessive force to the throttle levers against the
forward throttle stops.

airsafetyman said...

"It is no big deal. Just like Embraer will employ 200 in FL to assemble/complete Phenoms, ETIRC will do the same - there is nothing more to the story."

You might want to brush up on your South American aviation history after your review Dassault's. Embraer is the holder of three US Type Certificates. One each for the EMB-120, EMB-135/145, and EMB-170/190. I am sure when they assemble the Phenom in Melbourne it will have a US Type Certificate and the plant there will have a US Production Certificate. The question on the table is who is going to certify the Russian Eclipse plant as it airplane itself does not have an EASA or Russian certification? I would think the question is a a big deal, especially if I were an investor of any kind or government backer of this lunatic scheme.

Rich Lucibella said...

"Initial throttle quadrant testing indicates a force in excess of 30 pounds against the forward stops is required to cause the out-of-range condition."

Just for comparison, standard New York PD issue Glocks are required to have a 10lb trigger. That's 10 lbs of pressure exerted by the index finger only and controlling a fine motor movement.

30 lbs of arm pressure exceeds the design limit of the throttles on this jet? FPJ is prophetic; looks like Barbie-Doll arms are required not to break anything in the cockpit.

Lemme understand this first Vern:
Am I to understand from this tale of immediate and appropriate reaction to windshear, including the go-around and balked landing that we're describing this incident as "pilot error"? It certainly sounds that way.

And lemme understand one more thing
Because the throttles were out of range, Hal took over and the only procedure for wresting control back from him was to shut down one engine and land with the other at full power? No possibility of just moving the throttles back into range or otherwise telling Hal to take a coffee break while you land the plane safely?

Do I have all this about correct?
If so, sign me up NOW. I really need one of these future-proof jobs of yours.
Gunner

smartmoves said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
fred said...

airsafety ...

yep , exactly ...

if the russian accept to build or to have it build on their soil , then they will have no choice but to certify the bird ...

so a logic schedule would be 1° certifying 2° building of a factory 3° certifying the plant for production ...

any other way would be pure madness ...
(when you know that Mustang is probably going to have to wait up 2010 for russian cert. = just wonder of how many years the certification of Babooshka's plant is going to be late ? 2011 you said ? in your dreams ...!)

is there anyone to believe "They" are mad enough ?

airtaximan said...

"Eclipse is TOTALLY FREE to put forward the best case, most optimistic forecasts."

Yes and given their history at forcasting, they are either completely incompetent or thieves...

take your pick.

smartmoves said...

Just reeks of BAD design...

Surely, SURELY, you design the position indicator to allow for excursions WAY beyond the stops, if for no other reason than to allow for wear and tear in the hardware. Surely the system should be able to return to normal when the throttles are returned to within the normal operating range.

Agree with you Gunner - where is the 3 finger salute key to reset HAL?

Sounds to me this "system" has been designed by non-aviating computer geeks who have never heard of windshear, let alone had to fly fancy to avoid it...

airtaximan said...

makes me think of 2005 NBAA where I saw someone pushing their finger (no joke) into the side of the e500.

I mean, pushing in the aluminum with one finger, and not much force.

A sales person came over and asked that they stop, immediately. They did it agin, and another sales person came by frantically telling the person to stop. At this point there were 6 of us watching this.

"designed for high cycle robust airline type use"

really?

fred said...

airtaxi...


now , you'll have it ...!

i predict you'll be burning for eternity in hell...!
(vern's language = eternity : about 6 seconds ...)

don't you know that the NDA that implied by seeing the bird remain valid to your 5 th next of kin ...?
(so your great-great-great-grand childrens)

They don't joke about NDA in EAC ...

ask gunner ...!! ;-))

fred said...

After becoming aware of this occurrence, Eclipse immediately notified the NTSB and FAA. An Eclipse
Safety Investigation Team was dispatched to the aircraft and is currently participating as a party
(hope they don't booze to much )
to the
NTSB investigation. In accordance with NTSB rules, we cannot divulge details of the investigation
(how really convenient rules are when we need to respect them)
, but we
are aggressively working to determine the root cause and implement permanent corrective actions.
(aggressively ? as to correct FIKI?)
We are
also working on an immediate Temporary Revision (TR) to the Airplane Flight Manual (AFM) to address this
situation.

(which means we are going to write a book : title " it wasn't me!")

In the meantime, we have determined that communicating this issue to operators now is essential
in preventing a similar occurrence.

( anyway if already owners have not understood by now , we prescribe brain-surgery ...)

5. RECOMMENDED OPERATOR ACTION:
Eclipse 500 operators should avoid applying excessive force to the throttle levers against the
forward throttle stops.

(yes , very simple choice : either put a big sticker saying "INOP" or to say , under the penalty of law if revealed even under torture , just DON'T TOUCH the bloody thing ...!
but how are we going to fly ? don't know , just DON'T touch IT!! )

off-course , this is purely sarcasms ....;-))

Dave said...

It was directed at the blog as a whole and this obscession in trying to make a conspiracy out of a simple decision to assemble the jet closer to European markets. It is no big deal.

It is inherently a big deal when a jet manufacturer claims that it will be employing 1500 people and producing 800 units per year. It becomes a very huge deal when the same manufacturer is actually claiming 1400+ units in total per year.

The governments on NM and the Russian city have to do their own due dilligence. Eclipse is TOTALLY FREE to put forward the best case, most optimistic forecasts.

That does not excuse Eclipse or any other company from committing fraud. You're pre-supposing that Eclipse is putting forth its "best case" rather than a fraudulent case. I've said Occam's Razor would point to Eclipse engaging in fraud.

I don't know what "US GOvernment Agencies" Eclipse is telling what. Eclipse is under no obligation to disclose any plans to any US Government Agency.

I'm talking about the NM SIC for instance (amongst many others) where Eclipse has gone to them for funding. Eclipse does have an obligation because they're funding Eclipse.

If they shoose to share a forecast/prediction on VLJs, it is just that - an opinion. Just like JP Morgan gives an opinion to the Fed as to what they thing Oil will trade at next year or what they think the housing price decreases will be. Nothing more, nothing less.

It is not like that. It is a basis for funding. Its called defrauding investors if Eclipse doesn't internally believe what it is saying exterally. A company can't just say whatever it wants to get funding and then not risk facing criminal prosecution. Eclipse *might* be honest in what it is saying, but I'm saying given Eclipse history and the evidence, I believe this points to fraud.

Black Tulip said...

“Eclipse 500 operators should avoid applying excessive force to the throttle levers against the forward throttle stops.”

Eclipse may have to adopt a procedure that goes back to the dawn of turbojets. I once worked with a former Luftwaffe pilot who flew the ME-262 at the end of World War II. He said that if you were low and slow on final approach you had to resist any thought of shoving the power levers too far forward. The Junker Jumo engines had primitive fuel controllers and the pilot had to carefully add more fuel as the engines spun up and could accept it. Otherwise - flameout! Just make a few changes in the Eclipse manual… slow and gentle power lever movements, even in wind shear.

July 2007: “The Eclipse 500 is essentially future-proof,” Raburn said.

Black Tulip said...

FlightCenter,

You are doing the most important quantitative work on the blog with your Eclipse Order History. Ultimately this will tell the tale.

smartmoves said...

Future-proof? As in water-proof? i.e. there will be no water?

Baron95 said...

ASM said ... The question on the table is who is going to certify the Russian Eclipse plant as it airplane itself does not have an EASA or Russian certification?

Oh, OK. You are worried that 3 years from now in 2011 when the possible, eventual Russian assembly site that may assemble an E500, E400 or other then current Eclipse plane, that plane would not have Russian certification!!!!

Nothing wrong with worrying about events three years down the road.

Just stated it correclty: "If by 2011 or whenever Eclipse/ETIRC wants to start production in Russian, they still don't have a Russian/EASA TC/PC, they will have a problem" don't be like Vern and overstate the problem "Eclipse/ETIRC's Russia assembly deal is doomed because TODAY (3 years before it is needed) they don't have a Russian/EASA TC/PC".

See the difference?

Baron95 said...

AT Said ... Yes and given their history at forcasting, they are either completely incompetent or thieves...

Or just have too much naive youthful (as a company), entrepenurial, startup entusiasm. Thang god for that - that is what keeps the US economy as the innovative hot bed of new ideas and industries.

Can you imagine if the guys that started Google or Amazon or AOL or Yahoo said. "Oh, we just want to create this little tiny portal thing, it won't change the world much, we only want to take $1M of your investment". No. They all set out to set the world on fire, take over markets, kill dinasours, bring in $Billions in private and public equity. So failed. Some failed then succeeded. Some may still fail. $Billions were lost in the .com crash. But the result is the Web and Web 2.0.

Say what you may. It takes a special individual and lots and lots of balls to try to put yourself out there and do something "revolutionary". And guess what? It rarelly is successful. And when it is successful, if rarelly work out as planned.

There is absolutely nothing wrong with Vern/Eclipse having tried and failed and trying again and failing and burning through $1B, $2B. Moving plants. Absolutely nothing wrong. And thank god people like Vern and Lear and Adam and Klapmeyer and Bede tried/are trying.

P.S. If it takes balls to start any company, in aviation it takes balls that can only be trasported by a C-5 Galax yor AN124.

Dave said...

Nothing wrong with worrying about events three years down the road.
Just stated it correclty: "If by 2011 or whenever Eclipse/ETIRC wants to start production in Russian, they still don't have a Russian/EASA TC/PC, they will have a problem" don't be like Vern and overstate the problem "Eclipse/ETIRC's Russia assembly deal is doomed because TODAY (3 years before it is needed) they don't have a Russian/EASA TC/PC".
See the difference?


However, we are talking about a year from now, not three years down the road:
The Russian facility is expected to roll out its first aircraft in late 2009, he said.
http://www.abqtrib.com/news/2008/feb/22/eclipse-aviation-chief-says-russia-ripe-new-factor/
You are understating it by claiming Eclipse is planning their first delivery in 2011 instead of 2009. It's full production of 800 per year that's in 2011:
The first Russian-assembled very light jet is scheduled to roll off the production line in the middle of next year, and full production of around 800 aircraft annually is expected to be reached in 2011.
http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2008/02/21/221743/video-eclipse-500-to-be-manufactured-in-russia.html

fred said...

baron wrote :

"see the difference ?"

ah ? and such plant/building appears during the night ? (on a full moon ?)

2011 they start producing ...ok , BUT :

we are in mid 2008 , ok ?
mustang has been certified since 6 months , ok ?
still they will have to wait till 2010 (estimation) to get Russian Cert. , ok ?
so , one can naturally think E500/400/300 is going to be in the same process as of length , ok ?
what are the chances the Russian allow a plant to be built Before the product is authorized , ok?
if they do , they loose control over their own administration or will face some embarrassments with others foreign investments , ok ?
(believe me , that is the last thing they want !)

so how the whole thing is supposed to work ?

what ever is the angle you take the story , ALWAYS something going wrong ... this is not even "speculations " only LOGIC conclusions ....

believe me Russians are DEADLY LOGIC on business ...!!

See the difference?

Baron95 said...

Re the CPC....

Good luck trying to get the ex-airline types hired by DayJet to go easy on the throtles on a go around - these guys are trained to jam a fistfull (2-4) throtles to the stop - particularly on a LLWS scenario. I would not be surprised if some of these guys can generate 200 lbs of force on those throtles.

Better beef them up and better change your control logic to accept engine control "back in range" as a valid input.

On the other hand - and not trying to spin this into a positive (there is none) - it sounds like we found a bit of info to a question posed, I believe, by an exchange between Flyger, myself, maybe others several months back. It has to do with the "means to shut down the engine on FADEC power failure".

It sounds to me like the Eng Control Failure checklist (in case both engines are on full power) calls for shutting down one engine and landing with full power on the other. [BTW, the PCC should make that explicit].

So we know that, at least in some conditions, it is possible to actually land an E500 with full power on one engine, one shut down, with damage limited to the blown tires.

Question: On full electric power failure, is there a maan (e.g. manual fuel shut off) to shut down one engine? If landing with one engine producing full power can be demonstrated as a safe manouver can this be the basis to address the EASA concern about "means to shut down power when FADEC/electric power fails"? I'd appreciate an opinion on those that know the E500 flight manual and the EASA rule interpretation.

Thanks.

Dave said...

$Billions were lost in the .com crash. But the result is the Web and Web 2.0.

Actually *T*rillions were lost. The web existed way before the dot com bubble and web 2.0 came years after the dot com bubble. This hurt many families with many losing their jobs...and there were some who went to prison for orchestrating frauds.

Can you imagine if the guys that started Google or Amazon or AOL or Yahoo said. "Oh, we just want to create this little tiny portal thing, it won't change the world much, we only want to take $1M of your investment". No. They all set out to set the world on fire, take over markets, kill dinasours, bring in $Billions in private and public equity.

Actually their first investment was only $100K. In any event we're not talking about taxpayer's money with Google, but with Eclipse we are.

Say what you may. It takes a special individual and lots and lots of balls to try to put yourself out there and do something "revolutionary". And guess what? It rarelly is successful. And when it is successful, if rarelly work out as planned.

Being an entrepreneur doesn't excuse criminal activity as many of those who engaged in fraud have ended up in the federal pen. Someone who starts up a business cannot automatically be assumed to be above criminality unless you feel the underlying criminal laws are somehow wrong.

There is absolutely nothing wrong with Vern/Eclipse having tried and failed and trying again and failing and burning through $1B, $2B. Moving plants. Absolutely nothing wrong. And thank god people like Vern and Lear and Adam and Klapmeyer and Bede tried/are trying.

You automatically pre-suppose nothing criminal has taken place or is that you disagree with the white collar criminal laws? I'm saying Vern might or might not have broken the law but I'm leaning toward the latter.

fred said...

baron wrote :

"Thang (?) god for that - that is what keeps the US economy as the innovative hot bed of new ideas and industries."

please put the pink goggles down ...!

what made USA what is it ?

Talented men with lots of charisma and lots of energy ...

helped in their research by a financial industry who has no aversion to risks ...!


what is good with Vern ?

Very good at raising funds (thru his friends and the wall-street network of thieves , ready to make money with dung , if it pays )

and

.... well let me think ....


please do not insult your fellow citizen by saying such guys as vern are making USA what it is ...

otherwise , you'll crash into the wall very soon ...!

Dave said...

Since things are going so well at Eclipse, Vern has decided to find himself another distraction:
http://www.businessweek.com/print/innovate/content/jun2008/id20080611_595978.htm
Hopefully these guys wont operate like Eclipse even though Vern is on the board.

airsafetyman said...

"Oh, OK. You are worried that 3 years from now in 2011 when the possible, eventual Russian assembly site that may assemble an E500, E400 or other then current Eclipse plane, that plane would not have Russian certification!!!!"

Well, yes. I thought it was a done deal! Roel wouldn't lie, would he?IF the airplane gets Russian certification the plant will also (still) need Russian certification. Russian certified airplanes will be in the same fix as US airplanes are now, they will not be able to be registered in western Europe without EASA certification. Then there is the question of wheither Russian built airplanes could be registered in the US since they would be built under a Russian Production Certificate that may not necessarily be accepted by the FAA. Also in the US a manufacturer may not perform maintenance, repair, and overhaul on the airplanes it manufactures unless it also has a FAA approved Repair Station Certificate. That means a US registered airplane tooling around the Volga would not be able to drop in on the Russkie factory for maintenance unless the factory also had a US repair station certificate.

Since the Vernster announced SIX months ago that they were going to build a factory and NOTHING has happened since, the odds of delivering certified Russian-built airplanes in 36 more months is nill. In any event the basic design of the airplane isn't even finalized, never mind the ADs and retrofits coming down the road.

Dave said...

Since the Vernster announced SIX months ago that they were going to build a factory and NOTHING has happened since, the odds of delivering certified Russian-built airplanes in 36 more months is nill. In any event the basic design of the airplane isn't even finalized, never mind the ADs and retrofits coming down the road.

So why is Eclipse claiming the first russian delivery will happen in 2009?

airsafetyman said...

"So why is Eclipse claiming the first russian delivery will happen in 2009?"

Heaven knows. Apparently the Russians are trying to start up the AN-124 line again and/or start up a wide-body heavy maintenance facility that would have EASA and FAA certification. Those projects would use up all the existing space in Ulyanovsk. I think Eclipse (ETIRC) is trying to piggy-back on one or both of those proposals (and are being laughed out of town)

Baron95 said...

Meanwhile, about one full year and at least $2B behind schedule, and a month after it was supposed to be already flying in revenue service with ANA, Boeing on Everett building 40-26 is "finally (keep your fingers crossed)" starting power-on (the electrical kind) tests on ZA001 - Dreamliner 1.

Congratulations to Boeing on finally getting to this milestone and good wishes for a speedy route to first flight. I am dying to see this bird in the air.

And please. Lets hold off on the comments that Boeing was pepetrating a fraud on customers and the industry by saying they could go from roll out on 07-08-07 (a marketing stund date) to power on, first flight, 4 flying prototypes, 4 months of flight test and EIS in 10 months.

fred said...

airsafety ...

if i would know you or if you would be in front of me ...

i would probably kiss you and say that i love you ....
(don't worry , only a joke !)

it's real funny for me to see someone making-up ANY argument to show he is right ...

the story isn't working , whatever is the way you take it ...!

Dave said...

And please. Lets hold off on the comments that Boeing was pepetrating a fraud on customers and the industry by saying they could go from roll out on 07-08-07 (a marketing stund date) to power on, first flight, 4 flying prototypes, 4 months of flight test and EIS in 10 months.

Mentioning Boeing in regards to fraud doesn't exactly advance your case. Boeing paid the largest fraud settlement (over half a billion dollars) in federal procurement fraud history. Boeing has also settled fraud charges with NASA.

Baron95 said...

Dave said ... However, we are talking about a year from now, not three years down the road:
The first Russian-assembled very light jet is scheduled to roll off the production line in the middle of next year, and full production of around 800 aircraft annually is expected to be reached in 2011.


Hi Dave, I said 2011 or whatever. First remember "youthful/entreperurial enthusiasm" then remember the world "expected" then remember the word "first assembly" then "full production in 2011".

Add it all up and what do we have?

Best case, assembly of a test/certification article by year end 2009. 18 months from now. Use the assembly of that test article to debug tooling, training, documenting procedures for plant certification. Start plant going with one-by-one sign off throughout 2010, etc...

Worst case, lack of Russian/EASA certification will not be an issue unless they don't get it by mid-2010 (2 years from now).

Given that they will probably be way behind their enthusiastically optimistic time lines, don't lose sleep over lack Russian/EASA certification for a nother 2 and 1/2 to 3 years.

All your points are totally valid, if they are stated as "Eclipse/ETIRC will have a problem if they don't have EASA or Russian TC/PC by xx/yy/zz or by the time they are expected to have a running line in Russia". They certainly don't have a problem now. err - correction - they don't have THAT problem now - plenty of others.

Baron95 said...

Dave said... So why is Eclipse claiming the first russian delivery will happen in 2009?

I thought they mentioned in a interview "expected first assembly". Don't recall they "claiming first delivery".

Either way - chuck it up to entrepenurial exuberance. If you only aim for 2011 that is the best you can achieve and most likely it will be 2012. If you aim for 2009, you have a tiny chance of achieving 2009, a small chance of achieving 2010, and an OK chance of doing it by 2011. I am sure you guys are familiar with stretch goals, righ?

fred said...

"I am sure you guys are familiar with stretch goals, righ(t)?

yes , but we are talking about EAC ...

Not really a youthfull firm anymore (10 years +)

with a brilliant history of delays ...

the same for over-promise ...

the same for under-deliveries ...

the same for plunging a bit deeper into depositor's pockets over time ...

so when you state the plant has some chances to be "on" 2 years late ...

i would suggest = it is already the best possible case ...!

meanwhile Etirc would have to pay for US plant (to keep TC , etc...) AND Russian plant (while not making a cent out of it !!!

Baron95 said...

Dave said... Mentioning Boeing in regards to fraud doesn't exactly advance your case.

And what case would that be?

If I were trying to make a case it would be both young and mature companies over promise and under deliver at times.

I am both proud/excited and disapointed with Boeing in the 787 program. It was a supper stretch for technology, production, industrial relations, and a leap forward in this industry. It faltered (and badly) and is now on the come back trail.

My observations of Eclipse run the oposite direction. I was embarassed/disapointed in the way they went about it and though they'd be long dead by now. But, the fact that they are still around, still pumping out planes (incomplete as they may be), still making incremental design improvements, still "planning" on follow-on models, follow-on assembly sites, etc, just completely surprises me.

I really had to start giving Eclipse the respect that they've earned as the ONLY surviving (not successful mind you, by surviving) start-up company to certify and produce over 100 jets since Lear did it 4 decades earlier.

With all their faults, they are the only start up survival in the VLJ arena. Going from nothing to 200 (yet-to-be-fully-completed) fan-jets and still standing is a remarkable accomplishment.

Regardless of what happens you can't take that away from Eclipse/Vern. As much as we may disagree on style or substance. They have done something quite remarkable that may come along every 4 decades or so.

So, if there were a case....

Boeing: 787 Excitement -> Disapointment -> Recovery -> Admiration (???)

Eclipse: Embarassment -> Surprise -> Some Respect -> TBD (???)

It is "possible" that by 2012 we will have some 500 EA500 with G1000-SVS and an 100 E400 certified to FL250 with G-1000 SVS flying around the world. Not likely, but possible. The fact that Vern/Eclipse/ETIRC are still standing and fighting to get there is admirable.

AvidPilot said...

So this guy flying his Eclipse hits your typical windshear, reacts properly by advancing both power levers forward to full power, but then both engines lock on FULL POWER??

Then he has to do a shutdown of one engine, go-around and land on ONE ENGINE AT AT FULL POWER??

Then, to top it off, BOTH TIRES BLOW??

This is a joke, right??

Beedriver said...

I found the EA 100 look at www.iconaircraft.com it is a two place rotax powered sport pilot airplane. Vern is the leader of the group of advisers and guess what? it has been shown and announced but it has not flown yet. sound familiar?

AESTguy said...

I found the EA 100 look at www.iconaircraft.com it is a two place rotax powered sport pilot airplane. Vern is the leader of the group of advisers and guess what? it has been shown and announced but it has not flown yet. sound familiar?

Baron95 said...

AvidPilot said...
So this guy flying his Eclipse hits your typical windshear, reacts properly by advancing both power levers forward to full power, but then both engines lock on FULL POWER??

Then he has to do a shutdown of one engine, go-around and land on ONE ENGINE AT AT FULL POWER??

Then, to top it off, BOTH TIRES BLOW??

This is a joke, right??


Yep. Pretty much. On the EA500 the TOGA FADEC detent is intended for just that you can take-off/go-around. It is not intended for you to be able to land after TOGA (particularly if you really jam it in there) ;) ;)

If I were DayJet, I'd only hire female pilots that are less than 110lbs and have a policy that they can't do any upper body weight training.

Oh, and they should all be good looking too - this is to screen out any dudes that want to pass as a dudette captain.

It is the perfect solution - frees up useful load on the EA500, solve the TOGA detent problem, looks good.

AvidPilot said...

Well, major kudos to the pilot who got that aircraft on the ground safely.

Too bad both tires had to blow, because that is obviously pilot error. Right?

;-)

Dave said...

This is just too much:
http://www.integrum.com/ArticlesByCategoryPage.aspx?oid=541
I thought things couldn't get any crazier until I read this. Eclipse plans to build *50 units* in 2009, reach 800 units per year in 2010 and by 2013 be up to *1500 units per year*!

airtaximan said...

Can you imagine if the guys that started Google or Amazon or AOL or Yahoo said. "Oh, we just want to create this little tiny portal thing, it won't change the world much, we only want to take $1M of your investment".

Really?

Google (nothing like Vern...NOTHING) http://www.google.com/
corporate/history.html


Yahoo - NOTHING LIKE VERN...NOTHING LIKE ECLIPSE
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/
misc/history.html


AOL - nothing like VErn...nothing
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AOL


BUddy - you are very far off the mark on what makes for a great start up, or even what is required to keep momentum and grow a company.

REALITY is not sysnonymous with failure... unless you ARE failing - lofty goals are one thing, yet none of these companies started off the way you portray.

None claimed a revolution, and I do not think they recast milestone after milestone, recast history, specs and even their orders. I would think they were realistic about the developent timelines, and dealt with the reality as it presented.

These companies are nothing like Eclipse.

Anonymous said...

Does anyone else notice how the Eclipse PR machine takes what would be a 'yawner' for any other aircraft company and while delivering bad news makes it look as if they are achieving something dramatic?
aircraft and leasing

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