Saturday, February 16, 2008

Its time for Eclipse Critic NG!

After many months of effort, and several temporary homes across the interweb, the truly dedicated have decided....

.... not to move at all!

Yes, fellow followers of Stan, it's safe to come out of the cold.

20 comments:

Black Tulip said...

Hello Shane,

I see you list Dublin, Ireland as home base. I've flown a Turbo Commander several times in and out of Weston. Do you know the field?

gadfly said...

Put on the kettle, and this will seem like home in no time.

gadfly

Metal Guy said...

Ahhh, at first I thought it was dedicated to critique of Avio NG. Then I realized that it’s Eclipse Critic, Next Generation. I’m pretty quick y’know.

(I do like this format better than VLJPlanet)

Gunner said...

Guys-
I commend the effort, but I really think there's an easier way to do this without losing all of the old content or Search Engine priority.

If Stan agrees, you can simply change the ownership of his Blog. I'd understand if he were to refuse. He put a lot of work into the original. But, if he'd like to see that work continued in a seamless fashion, it can be done
Like This

Or This

Gunner

airtaximan said...

Regarding the "finished" e-500 price... the answer is... there's little market for this plane, probably NOT 250 per year at any price above $1.7 million.

Why? becasue for not much more, you have products from established companies, with track record of keeping promises, safety, quality and integrity. The risk associated with eclipse makes them a bad bet... and so, they need to underprice (forard price) their product based on a fabricated volume based on a fabricated market based ona fabricated orderbook.

If the product was so good, they would compete for the owner-pilot head to head, based on quality... all they have is low price, and even at that, probably subsidizing every plane "delivered" to date to the tune of $1M per plane... plus retrofits/fixes and replacement avionics... they still canot build upon the fabricated ordebook.

So the cost of this plane at normal (higher than normal but not the BS rates sold to the suppliers) is probably north of $2M.

The selling price... recouping the dev cost... now you are really joking.

airtaximan said...

check out the stats... orders, dev cost... pretty hysterical compared to some...no?

http://lfpress.ca/newsstand/News/
Local/2008/02/17/4853485-sun.html

Shane Price said...

BT,

Weston is quite close to where I live, and is rapidly growing as a 'private airfield' for the area.

Gunner,

I'm happy to move this forward in any fashion, within reason. In particular, I think it would be good to have North American input as a co-moderator. Want the job?

Metal Guy,

I did say I wrote the title with a little smirk on my face...

Enough of this social chatter. Any views on a first 'real post'?

Shane

BricklinNG said...

Re: Airtaximan

The little airplane is pretty good for a 5 seat small jet, provided that the electronics and FIKI get worked out, which I believe they will. Then, ATM, I would agree that the market is to sell maybe 200 or so per year in the range of $2.2 million. They will not sell by the thousands at $1.7 million; Dayjet is the harbinger of the supposed new transport industry using these jets; Dayjet has been underwhelming so far.

So the ultimate business will be to make them for around $2 million and sell them for a bit more. With luck the margin might be $400,000 but assume 200 units with a margin of $200,000 gives a cash flow of $40 million per year. At a 10x multiple, the right to make and sell the jets is worth $400 million. Of course Eclipse, the company, is not worth this much because it has enormous debt plus contracts to retrofit 100 jets plus contracts to deliver hundreds of jets for $1.5 million or so when it costs $2 million to make them. So Eclipse the company is probably worth zero.

In the end, some reputable company will pay $400 million to a receiver take the type certificate and tooling, put a reputable and honest face on the jet and start selling 200 a year against the Meridian, Mustang and whatever else is in the space at the time (Diamond? Cirrus?) The new owner will need the vendors so he will diminish his $400 million payment to the receiver by an amount necessary to keep the vendors in the game. Other creditors, including deposit holders and airplane owners needing retrofits will be dealt with by the trustee, not the new company. The new company will come up with the price for the airplane and the price for the retrofit. If the trustee thinks that the depositors' and owners' claims are superior to lenders, they may get some money to pay the new company so they get airplanes or retrofits. If their claims are inferior, they will get zilch.

This is one person's opinion on the denouement. Oh, don't count on European sales to raise the volume and partially rescue the situation. EASA certification will be so long delayed that it will not be a part of the picture.

doughboy said...

For pilot owners comfortable at the
RVSM cutoff of 25,000 ft would that
Safire design combined with EJ22 be
compelling.Its got a 40% efficient
fuel burn rate on the PWC610F.Cabin
pressure 5.5 with less gear than we
expect at 41,000 ft.Weight savings
would be signifigant.Oil near $100
with strong upward trend.

FlightCenter said...

Shane,

Thanks for kicking this off. The NG name seems really good and completely obvious in a "Why didn't I think of that?" kind of way. Excellent!

Hopefully you won't need to release an Eclipse Aviation Critic NG 1.5 blog update in a few months!

A couple housekeeping suggestions.

Currently, the new blog requires commenters to enter a word to verify that we are really human beings. Can you turn off the word verification feature?

Stan's blog was called - "Eclipse Aviation Critic".

Could you rename the title of your blog from "Eclipse Critic NG" to "Eclipse Aviation Critic NG"?

I'm not suggesting changing the URL. That is fine. However, having the word 'Aviation' in the title of the blog should help the search engines find this site and make it clear the site is about Eclipse, the company based in ABQ, not about a car or a brand of gum, or an astronomical phenomenon.

a37pilot said...

Bricklinng

As a long time reader and occasional poster, I couldn't agree with you more. There's no doubt that Eclipse has made some progress but as Gad so correctly points out, they have yet to make the first aircraft that does everything they have ever promised. The amount of money that it's going to take to make all those things happen can hardly be measured with present technology. Ultimately the company changes hands a few times then either becomes a minor player ( think Mooney) or production ceases and a few hundred owners spend the rest of there lives trying to maintain their orphan jets. Just MHO.

Shane Price said...

Flightcentre,

Thanks for you comments. I've changed the title, as suggested, but left the url alone. Stan was kind enough to post the link last night, and for that reason alone I will leave it as is.

The 'word verification' has been switched off. You will gather that I used default settings when putting this up, so please feel free to suggest a 'better' approach.

Hopefully most will have noticed the deliberate choice of template...

Shane

Gunner said...

Shane-
Thanks much for the offer of co-moderation. I'll decline based on being somewhat of a lightening rod for the DriveBy Brothers. Dunno if this is because I'm considered a "turncoat", due to the fact that I got my Deposit back or simply because it's a bit more difficult to dismiss someone who had put his own money on the line. Regardless of the reason, the dynamics remain.

Personally, I'd recommend FlightCenter and 421Jockey as a "fair an balanced" mix for mods.

Gunner

Gunner said...

ps:
On the other hand, if Shane is up to the workload task, I don't believe his geographic location or nationality demands additional Moderation from the Yank side of the Pond.

I say "Go For It".
Gunner

stan said...

Stock price for Innovative Solutions and Support fell below $8.00 per share last week though it did recover and close at $8.48 for the week.

It has been in a steady deline from a peak of nearly $30 around the March 5, 2007 date when Eclipse announced the selection of IS&S as a major partner to develop AVIO NG.

Steven H said...

> The 'word verification' has been
> switched off. You will gather that
> I used default settings when
> putting this up, so please feel
> free to suggest a 'better'
> approach.

What is the problem with the captcha verification? That technique is intended to thwart robot spam posters. Once your blog is found by the robots (usually 2-3 weeks after the blog goes live in my experience; less if it gets a link from a big site) it will be inundated by robot spam.

sPh

Shane Price said...

Steven,

I will keep my eyes open for robots, and hope that a personal decision (I hate too much 'security' in any form) won't hurt the blog.

Gunner,

The offer is open to anyone. On a personal note, I've admired your ability to stand up under pressure, even if it was from such relative lightweights as the Drive By Brothers. I also note your comments about FC and 427...

Working to post a 'proper' thread for tomorrow. Don't expect a masterpiece, just my two pence (sorry, cents) worth.

Shane

Dan Swanson said...

Shane,

Thank You so much for bringing the blog back.

I was so Excited to find a blog about Eclipse, and sad when Stan had to step away from it.

The excitement is just beginning as Eclipse enters the final phases.

The time delay between the manipulation and the consequences is amazing.

I think that it's interesting that Vern's Alma Mater Microsoft is now starting to suffer from similar problems of loosing their engineering ability and attempting to market their way out of it.

This method of running a business actually works much better than my engineer brain would like to think, the breakdown doesn't seem to come until your OWN EMPLOYEES buy into the distortion.

I have spent a lot of time trying to understand why it takes so long, and exactly when the threshold is reached. I t now seems that once you reach the point the you own people believe the rhetoric the collapse is imminent.

It still is amazing how long the time delay is, and how this delay between cause and effect confuses some.

Anyway thanks for being here, and stand by for big news!

Dan

eclipso said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
eclipso said...

Thanks for bringing it back. As I write this, the last of the group I went to ABQ with will be leaving next week. There were 12 of us and most went at my suggestion and when we all started at the same time, it was like a race to see who could leave the quickest. BT, CWMOR, and the rest...pay no attention to man behind the curtain (t&b) as we all know the familiar ring and tone. I know of a couple of insiders left, but will have a harder time getting the info. I know their QA is down to almost zero with mandatory "work til you drop" shifts going.