July 2019Ten years have passed since Shane Price relinquished the controls at Eclipse Aviation Critic NG. Much has happened in the last decade but some things never change – Eclipse is again for sale. The type certificate and intellectual property are up for auction next month. This time the assets are being bundled with those of Aerostar, Ercoupe and Lake Aircraft.
Colonel Mike Press leads a buyer’s syndicate and is enthusiastic about prospects for the new aircraft. “By combining the best qualities of these classic designs we expect to produce an airplane that will perform like no other. You can own a 350-knot twin-turbofan mid-wing amphibian with French doors and no rudder pedals.”
“We respect and appreciate the patience shown by Eclipse depositors,” continued Press. “We are allowing full credit for deposits made on the Eclipse 500.” The Colonel acknowledged that many of the original depositors have passed away, or no longer held airman’s medical certificates. But he pointed out that deposit certificates are family heirlooms, and have been passed down with reverence to grandchildren in some cases.
Press expects his group to prevail at the auction and requires only a modest advance from each participant. “Two hundred thousand Euros from each depositor and/or aircraft owner should guarantee a place at the table,” he said. “For owners, we offer a chance to finally standardize the fleet. In the years since the Eclipse was produced, many aircraft have been upgraded … but it is a mish-mash of field approvals and hardly any two aircraft are alike.”
“We located an old-timer in New Mexico who claims to have the complete code for Avio NG and promises we can get it up and running again,” Press added, catching his breath. “He says we can get rid of the ‘flight engineer’s panel’ with all the switches and circuit breakers and go back to electronic controls. This will be one more step in fulfilling the ultimate destiny of Eclipse Avio NG.”
A DECADE OF CHANGE
Looking back from 2019 over the last ten years… where do we start? President Barack Obama is mid-way through his third term of office and is campaigning for the 2020 election. Franklin Roosevelt is the only other President to have served four terms. Few would have anticipated the manner in which the U. S. Constitution has been amended.
Many of the changes in business and aviation occurred after the adoption of the Euro as the official currency of the United States. President Obama moved this easily through the Democratic-controlled legislature during his first term in order to “enhance our status as a citizen-in-good-standing in the global marketplace, and earn perpetual prestige with other peoples populating our plentiful planet.”
During the President’s second term, U.S. airlines were re-regulated and the nation’s aircraft industry was nationalized. “President Chavez of Venezuela has shown us the way and we will follow,” President Obama read from the Teleprompter.
Airbus and Boeing merged in 2014 to form AirBoeing. In spite of massive subsidies from both continents, the giant AirBoeing 797 continues to lag behind schedule. The aircraft has promised to be the ‘greenest’ airliner in history – made almost entirely of recycled composite materials. All manufacturing is outsourced, mostly to small countries in Asia with names ending in ‘…stan’. Initially the pilot slated for first flight expressed concern over the all-composite landing gear, fly-by-fiberoptic controls, single pilot operation and the carbon capture system. AirBoeing has reassured its customers and the pilot is no longer available for comment.
GENERAL AVIATION
No corner of aviation has been untouched in the last decade. Congressman Barney Frank (D-MA) sponsored the Air Equity Act of 2012 saying, “As demonstrated during the last century, it was unfair that some people could own homes but others could not. Not everyone can own an airplane but at least we can make the experience more equitable. Flying an aircraft that is pressurized and that can fly in icing conditions is a luxury that has been abused by the idle rich. The Air Equity Act levels the playing field once and for all, and will employ thousands in good jobs.”
However government-mandated aircraft designs have met with mixed reviews. The PelosiPussMoth can be rented at most airports but an older pilot offered, “It flies like a Luscombe without the power margin or handling ease.” But thanks to the PelosiPussMoth’s novel propulsion system there is an electrical outlet installed at virtually every tiedown at all U.S. airports. This multi-billion dollar, shovel-ready project was part of the Stimulus Two Package.
Several imported aircraft are available in the United States. The RiceRider III from China is available in tandem and side-by-side configurations. The RedDotRocket from India has just been introduced.
The single and twin-jet designs of the late twentieth century seem a distant memory. The field is littered with companies that tried, failed or partially succeeded: Morane-Saulnier, Bede, Gulfstream, Leopard, Fox, Century, Adam, Aviation Technology, Diamond, Epic, Cirrus, Piper, and of course Eclipse. Larger jets continue to be produced by Embraer, Cessna, Hawker, Gulfstream and Bombardier but those are only used for the carriage of elected officials and government employees. Nancy Pelosi and Barney Frank have agreed to share their Gulfstream 550 in acknowledgement of the continued economic decline.
General aviation pilots are hopeful that Pratt & Whitney and Williams may re-start production of small turbofan engines when the old inventory runs out. Their optimism has an interesting background. President Obama’s Climate Equity Act was passed during his first term of office – with far-reaching consequences. This edict made it illegal for government funds to be used in “any university or industry research intended to prove non-anthropogenic climate change”. If caught, violators are sent to Denier’s Prison, in the Gore Wing of the Guantanamo complex.
Although officially suppressed, word has leaked of research at a university in Iceland suggesting some climate change may not be manmade after all. This has raised the tantalizing possibility that petroleum fuels may again be utilized in general aviation. NAOPA (Nationalized Aircraft Owners & Pilots Association) has refused comment.
The U.S. pilot population continues to decline, a trend underway for fifty years. Government officials acknowledge that regulations may play a role… for instance a two-hour TSA security briefing, inspection and de-briefing are required now for every flight – even a Saturday hundred-dollar hamburger run. The Obama administration hopes to encourage an increase the number of active airman’s certificates by reducing ATC user fees. The day VFR rate of €0.10 per nautical mile travelled would be dropped on weekends but the IFR rates would remain the same.
The airlines are so desperate to fill crew seats that they have coordinated a new industry/government program. Qualified inmates of federal penitentiaries are allowed early release if they agree to fly for the airlines. Starting copilot pay is €10,000 per year along with paid-up union dues and free housing at a local half-way house.
THE LAST TWO VORs
The GPS system was completed several years ago with redundant constellations of satellites. This brought an end for the VOR navigation system in the United States. Over a half-century old, the network is being closed as an economic measure. Hardly any pilot tuned VORs on airways anymore.
This brought about a crisis for Eclipse operations as the avionics are only approved for flight from VOR to VOR. The owners pooled resources, petitioned the government and have taken over the last two VOR stations in the country – Laredo (LRD) and Mc Allen (MFE) both in Texas. Located a hundred miles apart these transmitters are a living aviation museum for future generations. They are also rallying points for the last few Eclipses flying. On clear days they can be seen shuttling back and forth, just below RVSM airspace.
These stations were chosen because of their semi-arid climate. Forecast icing is seldom an issue. Eclipse pilots are noted for their weather forecasting ability and aeronautical decision making. There has never been a pilot report of in-flight ice buildup submitted by an Eclipse operator.
THE TRIAL
Vern Raburn suffered for the sins of Eclipse. The United States is now under the jurisdiction of the World Court. This has allowed our country to be judged by ‘a more consistent standard, in tune with a global society and a one-world standard’. Raburn was brought before a Spanish magistrate and accused of ‘crimes against aviation’. After the tribunal Raburn was imprisoned briefly and forced to listen repeatedly to a recording of the 2008 Congressional hearing on Eclipse.
PEANUT POWER
Ken and Shari Meyer remain High Priest and Priestess of Everything Eclipse. Their hangar is essentially an Eclipse museum and includes the Eclipse 400 Concept Jet. Ken is still sending Mexican vacation pictures and Eclipse panel shots to anyone that cares and some that don’t.
Many have marveled that the Meyers are able to keep their airplane running. When questioned about his three trailer loads of red-tagged Eclipse parts, Ken bristles, “That’s just plain wrong. All the components in our plane have been overhauled and green-tagged. I don’t deal with ‘paint-it-black, ship-it-back’ overhaul shops.”
“And I want you to know,” Ken added, “we still have the best fuel specifics around. We’re burning bio-fuel (peanut oil) in our Eclipse. It works out to about 2,000 raw peanuts per nautical mile, and has brought new meaning to the phrase, ‘I love the smell of jet fuel in the morning.”
ALBUQUERQUE
The State of New Mexico ‘invested’ €14,000,000 in Eclipse Aviation and for its trouble ended up with three large empty hangars on the airport. After much debate the buildings were used for: a vast and plush casino for the Sandia Pueblo, the Bill Richardson Memorial Library, and the largest adult book and mature video store in the Southwest. The latter is owned and operated by Martin Chavez, former mayor of the city.
WHERE ARE THEY NOW?
What became of Our Founder, Stan Blankenship? He relinquished U.S. citizenship years ago, moved to the South Pacific, and tends to a beautiful archipelago of islands. He has worked tirelessly to undo bad habits taught by early missionaries to the natives – habits such as reading the Bible and wearing clothes. He and his wife promise to be scuba diving at age one hundred.
And what of Shane Price? His exact whereabouts are unknown. Five years ago the English reasserted Protestant rule in Ireland resulting in the marginalization of the Catholic majority (again). Shane was not a man to take sides in a religious debate, but is an Irish patriot unable to tolerate English domination. With broad support he formed a guerilla band and is thought to be in the Maumturks Hills, Connemara in the west of Ireland. A natural leader, Shane is viewed as the Michael Collins of this century - hopefully with a happier ending.
Rich Lucibella, who so valiantly defended the Eclipse assault on the blog, is back in the forefront. He is thought to be providing the Irish rebels with technical advice and his office at SWAT Magazine is the seat of the government-in-exile.
It was investigative journalism by Karen Di Piazza that provided the first media look at the troubles of Eclipse Aviation. This was not easy for Karen, as aviation magazine editorial content was directly tied to advertising revenue. ‘Objective flying magazine’ is on the list of oxymorons along with colossal olives, jumbo shrimp and civil war. But Karen persisted, and now runs her fashion media empire in New York. She can be seen striding purposefully across Central Park in her trademark tiger stripe pants.
WEDGE AND ZOOM
After a long courtship Vern Raburn and Jim Campbell were married. The ceremony was held in the Green Mountains of Vermont, one of the first states to permit gay marriage. Vern offered an olive branch of reconciliation to the ‘Honor Roll’ by inviting them to the wedding. Few of the twenty-nine bloggers named in the 2008 lawsuit were able to attend. But a report came back that the newlyweds have acquired a bed-and-breakfast in a quaint Vermont village and produce the best blueberry pancakes in the state. “Our disruptive recipe represents a paradigm shift in early morning nutrition for the fair state of Vermont,” said Raburn. “The other bed-and-breakfasts just don’t get it. What would you expect of dinosaurs?”
Vern is still smarting over the handle assigned by the blog – ‘Wedge’, the simplest of tools. After all these years he is hoping to upgrade a step or two, to say… ‘Lever’ or ‘Pulley’. ‘Screw’ is available but he is not interested.
A used Collier Trophy recently showed up for sale on eBay. The nameplate has been removed and it carries a high auction reserve. It hasn’t sold yet.
CALL A TAXI
Ed Iacobucci fulfilled his dream, if not his original vision. Ed founded DayJet and planned to dominate the ‘Per-Seat, On-Demand’ air taxi business. The company lasted less than a year. Iacobucci blamed its demise on the credit crisis, not strategy. Financial reverses and the longest running economic slump in U.S. history have not treated Edwell. However he sees the bright side of Obama’s policies, “The lousy economy has stopped the influx of immigrants - I’ve found it easier to find work. I’m driving a taxi now in Sanford, Florida… I guess you could say I’m in the per-seat, on-demand business. My proudest legacy is introducing the term ‘ant farmer’ to the lexicon.”
THE ODD COUPLE
Peg Bilson, formerly at Eclipse, and Nicholas Sabatini, retired from the FAA, have teamed up. Both gained minor notoriety with their testimony before Congress in 2008, as credibility was in short supply. Their skill sets are brought together in a new venture called MediJet. Bilson explains, “This is a harmonic convergence between two great needs. The former Eclipse 500 production line should be restarted and our nationalized healthcare system would benefit. ObamaCare has been criticized for consuming thirty percent of GDP. Why shouldn’t some of this be spent on aviation?”
She lays out the plan, “There is nothing wrong with socialized medicine that can’t be remedied with a good air ambulance system. With thousands of airports and thousands of MediJets (formerly known as Eclipse 500s), affordable healthcare can be in easy reach. The current version of ObamaCare Two has an earmark for production of two thousand MediJets. The mayor of Albuquerque and governor of New Mexico have provided a hundred million dollars in industrial revenue bonds.”
Peg sighed, “We’ve got one couple that shows up at McDonalds occasionally, ranting and raving that this is not going to work. Their next Big Mac Meals will include ObamaCare Gold Certificates. That should take care of the gadflies.”
Asked for comment, Nicholas Sabatini said, “I am responsible for certification and I know the boys in Fort Worth won’t let me down. I still know how to work the system.”
MYSTERY
Of Roel Pieper, little is known. Al Mann, investor and director in Eclipse Aviation, won a ten-million dollar judgment (plus interest) against Pieper in New York court. It was viewed as uncollectable, even with The New World Global Order. We have learned that Mann travelled secretly to the Netherlands two years ago. One year ago, Roel Pieper was called before a Dutch magistrate. His testimony has only been roughly translated into English, but seems to involve the phrase, “Your Honour, I was repeatedly assured by the subject of this case, Else, that she had attained the age of majority, specifically the age of eighteen years.”
Some have questioned how Roel Pieper could have met such an inglorious end to his career. After his disappearance one observer noted, “Well, he put over a hundred million bucks into Eclipse didn’t he?”
TOYLAND
The Fisher-Price Toy Company was founded in 1930. Beginning with sixteen wooden toys, the company shaped children’s toy boxes for generations by producing timeless designs. In 1993 Fisher-Price was acquired by Mattel. Sadly the company became collateral damage after the failure of Eclipse Aviation. The Eclipse 500 was coined ‘Fisher-Price Jet’ by the blog and the stigma was just too much. Mattel quietly pulled the brand last year.
LINGERING LEGACY
In this ‘kinder-gentler world’ Vern Raburn might be viewed with sympathy. The business school case studies have come and gone. The ‘glass-half-full’ acolytes admire the spirit of entrepreneurship evident in the rise of Eclipse Aviation… the big tents at Oshkosh… taunting the dinosaurs with WCSYS buttons… raising a billion bucks to build a new airplane.
Others have listened to the CVR tape, read the FDR data and believe Vern Raburn personally commanded the biggest smoking crater in general aviation history. Many innocents were led to destruction. The taking of deposits, given the conditions of the first flight, was widely viewed as unethical. Burning through hundreds of millions of non-escrowed deposits to fund operations, not build airplanes, left a bad taste. Many buyers, who expected an airplane, became unwitting investors in the company.
Even in the heady times of the late 1990s, the Eclipse business plan didn’t make sense. The company was supposed to become the dominant global supplier of jet aircraft selling them at a price that would not cover direct costs. Then there were the bad bets and poor technical risks taken by Eclipse. Engines, avionics… a man only gets so many chances.
Later Vern unveiled the Eclipse 400 Concept Jet… a desperate and cruel stunt. Eclipse bragged about 60% parts commonality between the 400 single jet and 500 twin jet. Future aircraft startups should be able to avoid at least 60% of the reasons for the Eclipse demise. Some have speculated that the enormity of the failure will hamper aviation ventures for years to come. So much capital was wasted with little to show for it.
Evolution by natural selection has long been a factor in aircraft, like any business. Nothing is more normal than for a company to produce some planes and then go out of business or be acquired. Many of these companies are remembered with fondness and their products are viewed as collectible classics. Take the Weaver Aircraft Company of Troy, Ohio – better known as WACO. Hundreds are still flying, seventy to eighty years after they were built. They have such value that even basket cases are rebuilt. How will the Eclipse fleet fare in comparison?
The controversial approach taken by Eclipse Aviation resulted in the formation of this blog. Stan’s original four-part post of April 11, 2006 remains a timeless classic. He brought smart people with broad experience together to exchange ideas. Shane picked up the baton and took it to the next level. Let’s hope this interchange continues - here or elsewhere with a broader aviation mandate. The Eclipse story has about played out but there will be others.
Probably no blogger here wanted the Eclipse story to end this way. Many of us love aviation and actively participate. The fact that an aircraft company name followed by the word ‘Critic’ emerged as an Internet Web Log, and gained influence is a story all its own…
Black Tulip
Colonel Mike Press leads a buyer’s syndicate and is enthusiastic about prospects for the new aircraft. “By combining the best qualities of these classic designs we expect to produce an airplane that will perform like no other. You can own a 350-knot twin-turbofan mid-wing amphibian with French doors and no rudder pedals.”
“We respect and appreciate the patience shown by Eclipse depositors,” continued Press. “We are allowing full credit for deposits made on the Eclipse 500.” The Colonel acknowledged that many of the original depositors have passed away, or no longer held airman’s medical certificates. But he pointed out that deposit certificates are family heirlooms, and have been passed down with reverence to grandchildren in some cases.
Press expects his group to prevail at the auction and requires only a modest advance from each participant. “Two hundred thousand Euros from each depositor and/or aircraft owner should guarantee a place at the table,” he said. “For owners, we offer a chance to finally standardize the fleet. In the years since the Eclipse was produced, many aircraft have been upgraded … but it is a mish-mash of field approvals and hardly any two aircraft are alike.”
“We located an old-timer in New Mexico who claims to have the complete code for Avio NG and promises we can get it up and running again,” Press added, catching his breath. “He says we can get rid of the ‘flight engineer’s panel’ with all the switches and circuit breakers and go back to electronic controls. This will be one more step in fulfilling the ultimate destiny of Eclipse Avio NG.”
A DECADE OF CHANGE
Looking back from 2019 over the last ten years… where do we start? President Barack Obama is mid-way through his third term of office and is campaigning for the 2020 election. Franklin Roosevelt is the only other President to have served four terms. Few would have anticipated the manner in which the U. S. Constitution has been amended.
Many of the changes in business and aviation occurred after the adoption of the Euro as the official currency of the United States. President Obama moved this easily through the Democratic-controlled legislature during his first term in order to “enhance our status as a citizen-in-good-standing in the global marketplace, and earn perpetual prestige with other peoples populating our plentiful planet.”
During the President’s second term, U.S. airlines were re-regulated and the nation’s aircraft industry was nationalized. “President Chavez of Venezuela has shown us the way and we will follow,” President Obama read from the Teleprompter.
Airbus and Boeing merged in 2014 to form AirBoeing. In spite of massive subsidies from both continents, the giant AirBoeing 797 continues to lag behind schedule. The aircraft has promised to be the ‘greenest’ airliner in history – made almost entirely of recycled composite materials. All manufacturing is outsourced, mostly to small countries in Asia with names ending in ‘…stan’. Initially the pilot slated for first flight expressed concern over the all-composite landing gear, fly-by-fiberoptic controls, single pilot operation and the carbon capture system. AirBoeing has reassured its customers and the pilot is no longer available for comment.
GENERAL AVIATION
No corner of aviation has been untouched in the last decade. Congressman Barney Frank (D-MA) sponsored the Air Equity Act of 2012 saying, “As demonstrated during the last century, it was unfair that some people could own homes but others could not. Not everyone can own an airplane but at least we can make the experience more equitable. Flying an aircraft that is pressurized and that can fly in icing conditions is a luxury that has been abused by the idle rich. The Air Equity Act levels the playing field once and for all, and will employ thousands in good jobs.”
However government-mandated aircraft designs have met with mixed reviews. The PelosiPussMoth can be rented at most airports but an older pilot offered, “It flies like a Luscombe without the power margin or handling ease.” But thanks to the PelosiPussMoth’s novel propulsion system there is an electrical outlet installed at virtually every tiedown at all U.S. airports. This multi-billion dollar, shovel-ready project was part of the Stimulus Two Package.
Several imported aircraft are available in the United States. The RiceRider III from China is available in tandem and side-by-side configurations. The RedDotRocket from India has just been introduced.
The single and twin-jet designs of the late twentieth century seem a distant memory. The field is littered with companies that tried, failed or partially succeeded: Morane-Saulnier, Bede, Gulfstream, Leopard, Fox, Century, Adam, Aviation Technology, Diamond, Epic, Cirrus, Piper, and of course Eclipse. Larger jets continue to be produced by Embraer, Cessna, Hawker, Gulfstream and Bombardier but those are only used for the carriage of elected officials and government employees. Nancy Pelosi and Barney Frank have agreed to share their Gulfstream 550 in acknowledgement of the continued economic decline.
General aviation pilots are hopeful that Pratt & Whitney and Williams may re-start production of small turbofan engines when the old inventory runs out. Their optimism has an interesting background. President Obama’s Climate Equity Act was passed during his first term of office – with far-reaching consequences. This edict made it illegal for government funds to be used in “any university or industry research intended to prove non-anthropogenic climate change”. If caught, violators are sent to Denier’s Prison, in the Gore Wing of the Guantanamo complex.
Although officially suppressed, word has leaked of research at a university in Iceland suggesting some climate change may not be manmade after all. This has raised the tantalizing possibility that petroleum fuels may again be utilized in general aviation. NAOPA (Nationalized Aircraft Owners & Pilots Association) has refused comment.
The U.S. pilot population continues to decline, a trend underway for fifty years. Government officials acknowledge that regulations may play a role… for instance a two-hour TSA security briefing, inspection and de-briefing are required now for every flight – even a Saturday hundred-dollar hamburger run. The Obama administration hopes to encourage an increase the number of active airman’s certificates by reducing ATC user fees. The day VFR rate of €0.10 per nautical mile travelled would be dropped on weekends but the IFR rates would remain the same.
The airlines are so desperate to fill crew seats that they have coordinated a new industry/government program. Qualified inmates of federal penitentiaries are allowed early release if they agree to fly for the airlines. Starting copilot pay is €10,000 per year along with paid-up union dues and free housing at a local half-way house.
THE LAST TWO VORs
The GPS system was completed several years ago with redundant constellations of satellites. This brought an end for the VOR navigation system in the United States. Over a half-century old, the network is being closed as an economic measure. Hardly any pilot tuned VORs on airways anymore.
This brought about a crisis for Eclipse operations as the avionics are only approved for flight from VOR to VOR. The owners pooled resources, petitioned the government and have taken over the last two VOR stations in the country – Laredo (LRD) and Mc Allen (MFE) both in Texas. Located a hundred miles apart these transmitters are a living aviation museum for future generations. They are also rallying points for the last few Eclipses flying. On clear days they can be seen shuttling back and forth, just below RVSM airspace.
These stations were chosen because of their semi-arid climate. Forecast icing is seldom an issue. Eclipse pilots are noted for their weather forecasting ability and aeronautical decision making. There has never been a pilot report of in-flight ice buildup submitted by an Eclipse operator.
THE TRIAL
Vern Raburn suffered for the sins of Eclipse. The United States is now under the jurisdiction of the World Court. This has allowed our country to be judged by ‘a more consistent standard, in tune with a global society and a one-world standard’. Raburn was brought before a Spanish magistrate and accused of ‘crimes against aviation’. After the tribunal Raburn was imprisoned briefly and forced to listen repeatedly to a recording of the 2008 Congressional hearing on Eclipse.
PEANUT POWER
Ken and Shari Meyer remain High Priest and Priestess of Everything Eclipse. Their hangar is essentially an Eclipse museum and includes the Eclipse 400 Concept Jet. Ken is still sending Mexican vacation pictures and Eclipse panel shots to anyone that cares and some that don’t.
Many have marveled that the Meyers are able to keep their airplane running. When questioned about his three trailer loads of red-tagged Eclipse parts, Ken bristles, “That’s just plain wrong. All the components in our plane have been overhauled and green-tagged. I don’t deal with ‘paint-it-black, ship-it-back’ overhaul shops.”
“And I want you to know,” Ken added, “we still have the best fuel specifics around. We’re burning bio-fuel (peanut oil) in our Eclipse. It works out to about 2,000 raw peanuts per nautical mile, and has brought new meaning to the phrase, ‘I love the smell of jet fuel in the morning.”
ALBUQUERQUE
The State of New Mexico ‘invested’ €14,000,000 in Eclipse Aviation and for its trouble ended up with three large empty hangars on the airport. After much debate the buildings were used for: a vast and plush casino for the Sandia Pueblo, the Bill Richardson Memorial Library, and the largest adult book and mature video store in the Southwest. The latter is owned and operated by Martin Chavez, former mayor of the city.
WHERE ARE THEY NOW?
What became of Our Founder, Stan Blankenship? He relinquished U.S. citizenship years ago, moved to the South Pacific, and tends to a beautiful archipelago of islands. He has worked tirelessly to undo bad habits taught by early missionaries to the natives – habits such as reading the Bible and wearing clothes. He and his wife promise to be scuba diving at age one hundred.
And what of Shane Price? His exact whereabouts are unknown. Five years ago the English reasserted Protestant rule in Ireland resulting in the marginalization of the Catholic majority (again). Shane was not a man to take sides in a religious debate, but is an Irish patriot unable to tolerate English domination. With broad support he formed a guerilla band and is thought to be in the Maumturks Hills, Connemara in the west of Ireland. A natural leader, Shane is viewed as the Michael Collins of this century - hopefully with a happier ending.
Rich Lucibella, who so valiantly defended the Eclipse assault on the blog, is back in the forefront. He is thought to be providing the Irish rebels with technical advice and his office at SWAT Magazine is the seat of the government-in-exile.
It was investigative journalism by Karen Di Piazza that provided the first media look at the troubles of Eclipse Aviation. This was not easy for Karen, as aviation magazine editorial content was directly tied to advertising revenue. ‘Objective flying magazine’ is on the list of oxymorons along with colossal olives, jumbo shrimp and civil war. But Karen persisted, and now runs her fashion media empire in New York. She can be seen striding purposefully across Central Park in her trademark tiger stripe pants.
WEDGE AND ZOOM
After a long courtship Vern Raburn and Jim Campbell were married. The ceremony was held in the Green Mountains of Vermont, one of the first states to permit gay marriage. Vern offered an olive branch of reconciliation to the ‘Honor Roll’ by inviting them to the wedding. Few of the twenty-nine bloggers named in the 2008 lawsuit were able to attend. But a report came back that the newlyweds have acquired a bed-and-breakfast in a quaint Vermont village and produce the best blueberry pancakes in the state. “Our disruptive recipe represents a paradigm shift in early morning nutrition for the fair state of Vermont,” said Raburn. “The other bed-and-breakfasts just don’t get it. What would you expect of dinosaurs?”
Vern is still smarting over the handle assigned by the blog – ‘Wedge’, the simplest of tools. After all these years he is hoping to upgrade a step or two, to say… ‘Lever’ or ‘Pulley’. ‘Screw’ is available but he is not interested.
A used Collier Trophy recently showed up for sale on eBay. The nameplate has been removed and it carries a high auction reserve. It hasn’t sold yet.
CALL A TAXI
Ed Iacobucci fulfilled his dream, if not his original vision. Ed founded DayJet and planned to dominate the ‘Per-Seat, On-Demand’ air taxi business. The company lasted less than a year. Iacobucci blamed its demise on the credit crisis, not strategy. Financial reverses and the longest running economic slump in U.S. history have not treated Edwell. However he sees the bright side of Obama’s policies, “The lousy economy has stopped the influx of immigrants - I’ve found it easier to find work. I’m driving a taxi now in Sanford, Florida… I guess you could say I’m in the per-seat, on-demand business. My proudest legacy is introducing the term ‘ant farmer’ to the lexicon.”
THE ODD COUPLE
Peg Bilson, formerly at Eclipse, and Nicholas Sabatini, retired from the FAA, have teamed up. Both gained minor notoriety with their testimony before Congress in 2008, as credibility was in short supply. Their skill sets are brought together in a new venture called MediJet. Bilson explains, “This is a harmonic convergence between two great needs. The former Eclipse 500 production line should be restarted and our nationalized healthcare system would benefit. ObamaCare has been criticized for consuming thirty percent of GDP. Why shouldn’t some of this be spent on aviation?”
She lays out the plan, “There is nothing wrong with socialized medicine that can’t be remedied with a good air ambulance system. With thousands of airports and thousands of MediJets (formerly known as Eclipse 500s), affordable healthcare can be in easy reach. The current version of ObamaCare Two has an earmark for production of two thousand MediJets. The mayor of Albuquerque and governor of New Mexico have provided a hundred million dollars in industrial revenue bonds.”
Peg sighed, “We’ve got one couple that shows up at McDonalds occasionally, ranting and raving that this is not going to work. Their next Big Mac Meals will include ObamaCare Gold Certificates. That should take care of the gadflies.”
Asked for comment, Nicholas Sabatini said, “I am responsible for certification and I know the boys in Fort Worth won’t let me down. I still know how to work the system.”
MYSTERY
Of Roel Pieper, little is known. Al Mann, investor and director in Eclipse Aviation, won a ten-million dollar judgment (plus interest) against Pieper in New York court. It was viewed as uncollectable, even with The New World Global Order. We have learned that Mann travelled secretly to the Netherlands two years ago. One year ago, Roel Pieper was called before a Dutch magistrate. His testimony has only been roughly translated into English, but seems to involve the phrase, “Your Honour, I was repeatedly assured by the subject of this case, Else, that she had attained the age of majority, specifically the age of eighteen years.”
Some have questioned how Roel Pieper could have met such an inglorious end to his career. After his disappearance one observer noted, “Well, he put over a hundred million bucks into Eclipse didn’t he?”
TOYLAND
The Fisher-Price Toy Company was founded in 1930. Beginning with sixteen wooden toys, the company shaped children’s toy boxes for generations by producing timeless designs. In 1993 Fisher-Price was acquired by Mattel. Sadly the company became collateral damage after the failure of Eclipse Aviation. The Eclipse 500 was coined ‘Fisher-Price Jet’ by the blog and the stigma was just too much. Mattel quietly pulled the brand last year.
LINGERING LEGACY
In this ‘kinder-gentler world’ Vern Raburn might be viewed with sympathy. The business school case studies have come and gone. The ‘glass-half-full’ acolytes admire the spirit of entrepreneurship evident in the rise of Eclipse Aviation… the big tents at Oshkosh… taunting the dinosaurs with WCSYS buttons… raising a billion bucks to build a new airplane.
Others have listened to the CVR tape, read the FDR data and believe Vern Raburn personally commanded the biggest smoking crater in general aviation history. Many innocents were led to destruction. The taking of deposits, given the conditions of the first flight, was widely viewed as unethical. Burning through hundreds of millions of non-escrowed deposits to fund operations, not build airplanes, left a bad taste. Many buyers, who expected an airplane, became unwitting investors in the company.
Even in the heady times of the late 1990s, the Eclipse business plan didn’t make sense. The company was supposed to become the dominant global supplier of jet aircraft selling them at a price that would not cover direct costs. Then there were the bad bets and poor technical risks taken by Eclipse. Engines, avionics… a man only gets so many chances.
Later Vern unveiled the Eclipse 400 Concept Jet… a desperate and cruel stunt. Eclipse bragged about 60% parts commonality between the 400 single jet and 500 twin jet. Future aircraft startups should be able to avoid at least 60% of the reasons for the Eclipse demise. Some have speculated that the enormity of the failure will hamper aviation ventures for years to come. So much capital was wasted with little to show for it.
Evolution by natural selection has long been a factor in aircraft, like any business. Nothing is more normal than for a company to produce some planes and then go out of business or be acquired. Many of these companies are remembered with fondness and their products are viewed as collectible classics. Take the Weaver Aircraft Company of Troy, Ohio – better known as WACO. Hundreds are still flying, seventy to eighty years after they were built. They have such value that even basket cases are rebuilt. How will the Eclipse fleet fare in comparison?
The controversial approach taken by Eclipse Aviation resulted in the formation of this blog. Stan’s original four-part post of April 11, 2006 remains a timeless classic. He brought smart people with broad experience together to exchange ideas. Shane picked up the baton and took it to the next level. Let’s hope this interchange continues - here or elsewhere with a broader aviation mandate. The Eclipse story has about played out but there will be others.
Probably no blogger here wanted the Eclipse story to end this way. Many of us love aviation and actively participate. The fact that an aircraft company name followed by the word ‘Critic’ emerged as an Internet Web Log, and gained influence is a story all its own…
Black Tulip
Words, as usual, fail me. Black Tulip has done himself, and all of us, proud. Thank you, kind sir, for your time, effort and unfailing support for the past 17 months.
This is my penultimate headline post. My final one, due at the end of the month, will be unlike any of the proceeding 105 in that it will be short.
And just a little bit special.
One last time (for me, anyway) I'd remind everyone that the tulip mania peaked in the Netherlands during the 1630s. The black tulip was the most sought after, until found to be biologically impossible.
Shane
211 comments:
1 – 200 of 211 Newer› Newest»I'd like to make it clear that this headline post had nothing whatsoever to do with Eclipse Aviation, which, after all, has been bankrupt for months.
It has, however, a lot to do with what 'we' have learned, together, over the past 3 and a bit years.
And that deserved a little celebration, don't you think?
Shane
Shane I'm sorry but I don't think I'm the only one that feels your aggreement with EOG should be void once the blog changes hands. If an owner wants to post info here it should be done. Use the right keywords and you'll find lots of EOG stuff on the net. This is reducilous! Hopefully the new mod won't be afraid of the EOG and will also make an attempt to at least try to steer blog content towards the blogs namesake. You've done a great job Shane but I have my disagrements. That's ok though. Their mods are unable to take down positions for sale in the 300s from as recently as late last year. Good old Mike and Brandon!
Dear friends:
EAC was truly, for real, by all counts, a complete fraudulent enterprise.
Fraudulent.
The aircraft is junk; the engineering is flawed; the entire project a sham.
Give it up.
There is no future here.
Dark Blossom
Your review has brought back many memories, including “back when” . . . in school, we had to design an aircraft for “weight & balance”, showing center of lift and all that silly stuff that pilots so seem concerned with. (Shucks . . . if you can stuff it into the cargo compartment, it should fly! . . . right?) And as I recall, I submitted the “PeachCraft Banana” (with complete graphics . . . I still have the drawings somewhere in my notes) . . . some said it was the “pits”, while others found it “appealing”. (At this point, you may all laugh! . . . har, har!) At any rate, I got a good score.
Your look over the brief history of the “bird” is most insightful . . . and when you come out with the “hardback book” version, may I apply the two “$3" bills that you and your wife left us, still on the “fridge”, towards a signed copy?
gadfly
(Yeh . . . I’d like that, very much!)
“There is no future here.”
Ah, “Deep Blue”, me thinks you are wrong.
Thinking back, since I grew up within five miles of most of the movie industry, me thinks that the “Eclipse Story” has great potential, of turning a profit. It may not be on a level of “Laurel and Hardy”, but might attain to “The Three Stooges” . . . or possibly “Charlie Chase” (most don’t remember him) or Buster Keaton (he was a true artist).
Well, on second thought, the “story line” is there, but the great actors are all gone.
OK . . . you’re right! I stand corrected.
“Give it up! There is no future here.”
gadfly
(‘Maybe a musical! . . . Nah, nobody’s going to dance to that tune, again!)
(Or will they?)
Deep Blue,
I admire your efficiency. You needed only a few dozen words to express what took me over three thousand.
I carry a vivid memory of a long phone conversation with a former Eclipse employee. It was just before the September 2008 Congressional hearing. Although he was not ultimately called, at his request I was coaching him on what to expect, having testified twice before Congress on unrelated matters.
He said his son had worked in Eclipse final assembly. He told me that the ‘crew’ discovered, on exercising the controls, that the side-mounted control stick struck the interior upholstery before reaching the control stop on an Eclipse. He said the ‘solution’ was to remove the floor boards, put a pry bar under a control linkage tube… and bend it until there was no interference. Floor boards went back down – another Eclipse 500 ready to go.
My impression of the company changed irreversibly. Actually I don’t care whether the incident is true. This sort of story does not circulate around a good company.
EOG ... Eternal Optimist Gathering ?
Tulip ... Brilliant !
Shane ... Gonna miss the now occasional fly by viewings.
All ... The future's so bright, we gotta wear shades!
* Props to Timbuk3
BT,
Thanks for the memories!
You are on smart guy... crafty, too.
Cheers
Black Tulip :
Excellent Work ! (as usual...)
following the link provided in the post ...
i was glad to learn a few things ...
and have a good laugh when i found the "eclipseaviation.com" was still on ...
especially funny when reading this announcement :
The program for those who want to own a jet, not worry about it. ...
as Monsieur Shane stated once :
did they have any shame ? ;-)
Shame we can't read about that ice incident here or in the SDR DB.
Interesting to see the lack of response to the reports of Socata's finding poor documentation in Ecorpse.
No response because we would not have expected anything else. Don't forget that one of the Wedges hand picked managers summed it up with "the quality of the aircraft is shit".
Freedom,
It would appear that the 'paperwork issues' are well known. They may form part of the difficulty the Trustee is having in getting a bid from any of the established aviation people.
Sadly, it appears that EAC is only attractive to people who know very little about running an enterprise of this complexity.
You will be familiar with the KISS axiom, which I tend to adhere to more closely as I grow older and, hopefully, wiser.
Keep It Simple, Stupid
One of the key lessons learned, in many ways, with the EAC saga is they took on too much. A unique engine from Williams, the Avio glass cockpit and finally Friction Stir Welding/very high rate assembly.
The program was the exact opposite of KISS. When a simple solution was called for Vern always chose the complex alternative.
Look at what happened with Williams. When, for whatever reason, the EJ22 didn't work out, Williams offered a derated version of one of their existing units. This would clearly have allowed the entire program to proceed until such time as the original specs agreed for the EJ22 were met.
But that was too simple for Vern. He ditched his supplier, moved to P&W who did a fantastic job in getting a brand new engine built and certified in under three years.
There is a similar story with Avio. Original supplier (Avidyne) ditched, new supplier(s) rush to cobble together an alternative.
Finally the theory of computer assembly (multiple components meeting at the last minute before shipping) applied to aircraft, plus an untried method of joining panels.
No wonder the quality and reliability of the product suffers. What's remarkable is that so many are still flying....
Perhaps there is still a chance for the owners.
But it's unlikely to be 'simple' or 'low cost', whatever happens.
Shane
When a simple solution was called for Vern always chose the complex alternative.
well , i have no problem to "imagine" Wedge giving orders and directives to workers ...
V: "bla bla BS bla bla bla more BS ..."
Workers : "????"
V:"did you understand anything ?"
Workers: "NO , not a iota !"
V: "Wonderfully Fine , disruptive ... keep going the same ...!"
Kathy,
Clearly, 'our' new blog/forum will develop it's own modus operandi.
However, there is nothing wrong with politeness and good manners. If 'we' started cherry picking 'their' threads, they would simply stop talking.
As it happens, there is very little said on the E5C that doesn't find its way to me...
Take this whole icing thing. They've been pushing the envelope for a long time, just trying to get around the FIKI limits. And a few have, naturally, scared themselves stupid.
This just illustrates what was common knowledge here for a number of years. Owning and/or flying an E500 automatically makes you a test pilot, like it or not.
Example.
I have several emails, from identified sources, who experienced a 'dark cockpit' when Avio decided it was time to shut down.
One of them was flying over water.
At night.
Thankfully they got themselves out of that 'situation' in one piece.
Did the owners forum discuss it, at length?
What do you think?
Let's put it another way. I've seen the forum contents, read The Flyer, listened to the 'customer conference calls', been consulted by suppliers, staff, customers, the aviation media and a host of others.
Do 'they' know more than we do?
No.
Do 'they' understand what being up a creek without a paddle is like?
Yes.
Will posting the content of E5C here change any of that?
Hardly....
Shane
Shane, to paraphrase you...
Sadly, it appears that the EA500 is only attractive to people who know very little about running an aircraft of this complexity.
Having a foot in both the airline and business jet world it is fascinating to see the difference in the delivery process.
Airliner delivery - Engineering goes over the plane with a fine tooth comb, snagging every little defect in painting, sealing, wiring bundle routing, decor, signs of leakage, chaffing etc. Systems are tested, flight tests performed, and then the last few hundred thousand dollars of concessions gets screwed out of the manufacturer.
Business jet delivery - owner goes to lunch with the sales guy.
Freedom :
Business jet delivery - owner goes to lunch with the sales guy. ...
brilliant description !
or be careful of any seller who seems to be too friendly !!
I have several emails, from identified sources, who experienced a 'dark cockpit' when Avio decided it was time to shut down.
One of them was flying over water.
At night.
Thankfully they got themselves out of that 'situation' in one piece.
This must be a pretty sweet flying aero design, to let "Die Hards" (tm Wedge) get away from such event with their lives.
Luck would play it's part.
Black Tulip,
thank for your funny and not so nice view into the future!
Somehow the current discussions - "losing" the avionics at night , getting fpjs covered with ice - give an impression of fpj pilots (f/m): This must be a special breed
(the deposit holders alike!)! They will manage to keep at least VORs alive!
Hopefully your reflections will be wrong in at least some cases...
Thank you!
Julius
Will they ever sell this turkey, Snippet?
Two groups remain, neither of which believes the other will 'win'.
It's a very strange situation, which will take time to disentangle. The Trustee seems incapable of getting a valid bid out of either of them, since neither believes they'll lose.
Others have been 'laughed out' of the bidding, or simply lost interest.
The assets are spoken of as being worth $50 million, tops.
Which is a pretty scary when you think of what was put into this company.....
Shane
Black Tulip,
797 AirBoeing
the number before - 787 - got another delay...
And the A350 wasn't in the air...
Good chance for 797 AirBoeing!
Julius
Julius,
AirBoeing 797?
Fact is stranger than friction... er, fiction.
The assets are spoken of as being worth $50 million, tops.
I wonder how much that number reduces for each Tuesday which passes without the sale.
Sooner or later the sunny city will be forced to clean out those hangars and get in a rent paying lessor.
Monsieur Shane :
I am sorry to report that you are wrong ...
the assets are worth 50 Millions ...
but you forgot the " ZWD" before the $ ;-)
so all in all , it is about 120.000US$ , which is still a very good value(proposition? ;-) )
if everything is considered !
ps : it was a too long time since i wrote something about Zimbabwe and its inflation of ... well believe me , you don't have enough time to count all decimals ... ;-)
Julius :
797 ?
was machen zieh ?
are we still in time-warp-machine of the "infamous" BT ?
i thought that they were making a stop at 787 ... before
freedom :
how much reduced the assets are with each Tuesday passing without a bid or (let's be optimistically crazy ...) a sale ?
like Zimbabwe (i don't know why i just love this name !) ...
a bit less than 500% ... per day ! ;-)
Freedom,
I've been struggling with how to convey what's going on, behind the scenes. It's very hard to avoid difficulties when you're in my position, so I have to balance giving you lot a sense of where the process is at, without disclosing to everyone how much I know.
Which is, for a lowly Irish businessman 4,000 nm from the of the action, is probably a lot more than I should.
But I digress...
Lowball bids in the $15 million range were never going to cut it, and rightly so. The Eclipse Owners Group would be shooting themselves in the foot if they bid at that level, since the 'assets' include 29 almost complete E500 on the assembly line.
After all, this only values a brand spanking new E500, with all the bells and whistles, at a tad over $500,000, with the rest of the company thrown in for free.
Couldn't have happened, could it?
The City of ABQ is in a bit of cleft stick here. First, it's down '$19 million' of direct investment. Second, it's the proud owner of an awful lot of 'stuff' which equipped the factory, including computer servers, laptops, all kinds of tools, software et cetera et cetera. Finally, although the City provided a lot of the buildings, EAC actually owns the building which housed the simulators. Said simulators never became EAC property, for the excellent reason that they were never paid for...
So there are probably more than a few city officials hoping this whole mess drags on for another year or two. Or at least until they are safely out of harms way, from the resulting fallout.
No, I don't think the City will be in a vast hurry to 'clear out' what's there and look for another Vern...
Or maybe they are?
I have a wonderful business idea, involving Lunar land sales, which will have a very high profile as we approach the 40th anniversary of Neil Armstrong's "One small step...."
Would you like to join me in promoting it?
I'm confident we can persuade E500 owners, like Ken for instance, that a few hundred acres of the Moon will make an excellent investment.
Shucks, if push comes to shove, he could always park his E500 there, with no danger of damage from wind or rain....
Shane
fred,
797
good question.
But who will answer?
Boeing was about to talk about increasing the production rate i. e. forcing the partners to do some investments...
Reinforcment = more weight?
Other dynamical load factors....?
How could that happen?
Perhaps Airbus/Boeing are becoming aware that if they continue to outsource everything to competent partners theses might mix up Air(bus/)Boeing orders and deliveries....
Julius
P.S.: Only low-speed taxi runs???
Boeing made a lot of stunts - not now?
29 even more incomplete EA500's than the incomplete EA500 which were already delivered, plus the rest of the factory thrown in for free is still not worth USD50M. Not even USD15M.
Freedoms,
how much money must be invested,
before any money comes back?
- just a repair shop (the 29 incomplete fpjs can be repaired (?)
or
- a repair plus develop plus production shop.
How much does it cost to be a TC-holder?
Are EC documents missing?
As Shane said, there might be some simple reasons for delaying a final auction!
Julius
Julius,
You can not "repair" A/C which were not completed in production. In America you can legally produce without a production certificate, but good luck getting cooperation out of the FAA to get some of these 29 Ecorpses resuscitated!
FreedomsJamtarts,
thank you for the info!
Thus these 29 semi-fpjs will only cause troubles.... What are their values?
If one starts the production next month, they are nice - if in one, or perhaps in two years - the insurance company will ask for more money, more taxes(?)...
Julius
What amazed me the most :
some are still trying to value the remnant of the dead body (Ecorpse)
was it our Kenny who stated "some peoples should have a life ..." ?
totally pointless , may be for the spares ...
but as to keep some value to what already exist :
what a joke !
fred,
don't be so cruel to Ken...
Flying over big layers of clouds...
That's the kick!
I read a report about a fpj in UK (Financal Times UK in May 2008). Because of missing FIKI the pilot did fly higher than 5000 feet - too many clouds.
Perhaps there is some money to resucitate EAC - like rain in the Death Valley!
Julius
The National Transportation Safety Board determines the probable cause(s) of this incident as follows.
The airplane manufacturer's inadequate software design requirements of the engine's full authority digital electronic controls (FADEC) fault logic that resulted in a simultaneous unrecoverable loss of thrust control on both engines when the FADEC's input data values
exceeded specified ranges during the approach. Contributing to the incident was the Federal Aviation Administration's failure to
recognize and correct this condition during the certification of the airplane.
NTSB Midway Probably Cause
Wow! Was I surprised when researching the utilization averages of business jets.
When I flew in the early 80's at least half of my career was spent with a monthly hour waiver (140) and rarely do I recall having less than 100 hours a month. Therefore I figured a round number of 1,000 hours a year would be a conservative estimate for aircrew utilization and airframe to boot. After all you are paying for full time use of both and should maximize value wherever possible.
Average age Lear 24 (37 years) with the aforementioned schedule one would assume airframe times around 30 to 40 thousand hours. In actuality 9,500 seems to be closer to the mark or 260 hours per year since manufacture.
The Lockheed Jetstar II seems to enjoy very similar numbers with the average E500 around half of these numbers (125 hours annually). What took me between three and four weeks to accrue are now spread across 12 months. What should be the design philosophy in the VLJ in the future?
I'll begin with a time proven axiom in manufacture and design "Buyers are Liars." The only way a six place twin jet will logically be utilized is by an owner/operator probably for joyrides with the ability to 'write-off' the cost associated with some business they own. The fact that they may be a dentist with a single office or rancher with a single operation is not researched by the IRS. Part 135 operations are fanciful at best.
As a buyer, I would NOT want to pay for any R&D which would facilitate airline operations. If I'm an owner/operator with less than 200 hours in the sky annually, I would not want FIKI which would add to the cost complexity and potentially give me some grandiose idea that I have the skills and currency to launch into FIKI WX conditions. Gee, when will it hit the fan? Single pilot, take off configuration, MTOW, night, rain/sleet, without WX radar and lightning observed flying 200 hours or less per year? To the lesser experienced, FIKI is a feature! Something I can brag about at parties and stuff.
Autopilot; considering all of the fretting about fuel consumption it seems asymmetrical to pay double for an autopilot system and maintenance. Lets see, the average business flight is less than 2 hours and with the scant amount of flying being done; I would assume half of the time a conscientious pilot would be hand flying for proficiencies sake. Leaving the autopilot utilization at well below 100 hours per year. Is flying that 100 hours per year by hand considered too exhausting or is the work load too great for a low time pilot? Perhaps ditch the weight, cost and complexity. You can still brag about it at parties....just lie.
CONT....
FADEC; the fly-by-wire certainly makes the co-pilot feel like the Maytag repairman and eliminated the flight engineer altogether. Auto throttles and burn optimization make a lot of sense when your on a bladder busting, Trans oceananic ride with a few hundred PAX sipping a Merlot. For the VLJ with cruise legs measured in single digit minutes, aw shucks- seems kinda stupid when it's put that way. Couple of cables from the throttle quadrant may deserve some consideration, simply re-badge the cables as FAY-Deck. You can still brag at parties and it's not a complete lie!
Pass on glass!?? Caveman, troglodyte, third-world ghetto-pilot, et al. How did the pioneers do it? If something was failing there was little software to blame and the display configuration was always the same. As they say, familiarity breeds contempt and confidence when things go wrong. The RMI is erratic, remove replace (2 mins). Just when the cost of steam gauges stabilized and MTBF figures doubled all was abandoned for MFDs. If challenged about your lack of a glass panel let em know, Chuck Yeager taught you how to fly with round instruments, Neil Armstrong landed on the moon with round instruments. Women will want to be with you and men will want to be you, trust me this works every time.
What all of this comes down to is the delta between functionality, reliability and cost. Just because some vehicle has a jet engine or two does not automatically include all of the instrumentation thrown into a Boeing or Airbus product. In fact, it seems Walter Mittyish when aligned with a VLJ's flight profile and more so when compared to the average VLJ's pilot. Although the VLJ pilot may disagree and that is expected since Buyers are....... EOM
Hey Shane - that is a MOAP - Mother of All Posts - Well Done, Chap ;)
-------------------------
And NOW, several more weeks, before we have a plan that tells us how many more weeks before 787-ZA001 - aka Dreamliner One - flies.
I think they should call Vern in to show them how to deliver 260 incomplete planes while getting Airlines to pay FULL price.
baron95,
interesting idea, calling in the wedge for deliveries of incomplete plans.
I am sure, the wedge would tell them (Boeing), they had to promise that Boeing will modify the a/cs to full spec....until next Tuesday. But the wedge is also customer oriented and would insist in a price reduction of about 40% for a 60% advanced payment(deposit). Actually Boeing would be more profitable - lads from the Big Three would streamline the production according to automotive standard aka. EAC standard. Naturally some suppliers would be thrown under the airbus.
I think the Air(bus/)Boeing relationship will change to a better end (as long as the RiP isn't asked for help, too)!
Julius
Some Sad News
Dr. Sam B. Williams, founder and Chairman of turbine engine maker Williams International, passed away 22 June 2009 at the age of 88. Dr. Williams is best known for his patented invention of the small fanjet engine that enabled the creation of small efficient business jets.
With FAA certification of Williams’ FJ44-1A engine in 1992, Williams International became the first and only company to break into the fanjet industry in the past half-century. Since that time, 4000 FJ44 engines have entered service at the light end of the business jet market, fulfilling Dr. Williams’ lifelong dream of making jet travel safe, convenient, and affordable.
A 'friend of the blog' sent me this, which I deem appropriate to highlight, in this fashion.
May Dr. Williams rest in peace, and his family find solace at this difficult time.
Shane
Baron,
Thank Black Tulip, not me...
Sadly for the company, it turned out that Vern was getting nowhere NEAR the price he needed for the E500.
Yet he kept shipping units, at a huge loss.
At least Boeing have the benefit of a believable order book, backed by substantial deposits, from established airlines with proven revenues.
Which of the foregoing essentials did Vern have?
I think I understand the difference now...
Shane
Shane:
With all due respsect, you're being a tad naive here:
"At least Boeing have the benefit of a believable order book, backed by substantial deposits, from established airlines with proven revenues."
Boeing's order book is subject to enormous adjustment as its two primary customers--the US Government and airlines--are both highly volatile and in the case of commercial airlines, marginal businesses at best.
Boeing has sold its soul to 'outsourcing' foisted on it by dopey consultants and a CEO that doesn't know a wing from a prayer.
Boeing and Airbus are going to have their "a-sses" kicked by the Chinese, Russians and Japanese. The Canadians and Brazilians are not far behind.
http://www.ainonline.com/news/single-news-page/article/turbofan-pioneer-dr-sam-williams-dies/?no_cache=1
"With FAA certification of Williams’ FJ44-1A engine in 1992, Williams International became the first and only company to break into the fanjet industry in the past half-century. Since that time, 4000 FJ44 engines have entered service at the light end of the business jet market, fulfilling Dr. Williams’ lifelong dream of making jet travel safe, convenient, and affordable."
Sorry. Due regards to Mr. Williams living to a ripe age, well beyond the average.
But as for the dream of affordable, safe jet travel, (for the engine part) thank Pratt Whitney, GE, Rolls and especially for biz jets, the original TFE 731 turbofan from Garrett/Air Research, now Honeywell.
That engine, more than any other (along with the TPE line) brought us safe, reliable GA jet flight, along with state of the art after market.
Williams, may he RIP, was and is a bit player with an engine I would not ride along with (11,000 hour jet ATP).
Deep Blue,
I take it you fancy a revival of EAC will succeed then.
Can I interest you in some Lunar real estate? I'm only looking for 10% as a down payment, and a very modest 60% only 6 months prior to delivery. I'm thinking of including a twin rocket 6 place space vehicle with a range of 800,000 nm, to get you to your new landholding.
And the good news?
You won't even need pilot training, as I've designed a computer system that will manage everything.
AvioNG was just so 20th century, when you look back at it.
Shane
Reading the many comments on this blog, and listening to the comments about our national economy on late-night radio in the "wee hours", confirms some lessons I learn not far from my own back door.
Out back, I have . . . let’s see . . . seven ponds filled with goldfish (some big enough for a meal or two or three), a “Koi”, and maybe thousands of minnows of various kind, plus Japanese “Trap-Door” snails, etc. The pumps keep a constant sound of waterfalls year round, even under a few inches of snow, and keep the fish quite healthy. From time to time, I transfer some of the over population from the bottom most pond (over three feet deep) into the more shallow upper ponds. But therein is a major problem! How to catch these fast and “street-smart” gold fish!
(Those comments about a goldfish having a short memory . . . don't you believe it for a second.)
Here’s how to catch fish( . . . or voters, for that matter): Take two nets . . . come after them, and stir up the bottom . . . they panic and hide at the far end, among the many water-plants and under the waterlilies. Then plant a net at a likely escape route, and go after them with the other net. They can’t see where they’re going . . . and per chance, one or two of them will go into the planted net. Keep them excited and confused . . . even goldfish have emotions, you better believe it! It’s a great education . . . with plenty of application to present Washington politics . . . get folks all stirred up over one thing, so they don’t have a clue that the purpose is to “gain control” in an entirely different area . . . until it’s much too late (for the fish)!
“Eclipse” and my “gold fish out back behind the house” have been a wonderful education about present day politics and the behavior patterns of “fish, voters, and investors”.
It’s amazing how over a century and a half ago, Samuel Clemens (“Mark Twain”) was watching the same shell game aboard the river boats, and made a fortune writing about it. Maybe someone in our midst, with the talent of the “Black Tulip”, will write a book about the same game, with “wings and fire in the tail” . . . and maybe make a fortune. The talent is certainly there!
We, who live in New Mexico, have been “privileged” to get an “eye opener” as to what is happening on a much larger scale in Washington . . . showing that some things don’t change in time, only in scale.
gadfly
(When your outgo exceeds your income, your upkeep will be your downfall!)
(And then there's those two 800 pound gorillas, that for all practical purposes are "too hot to handle", and for most folks are invisible.)
I still don't get the 29 almost finished aircraft. There are 3 in final assembly of which 1 has engines. The other 26 don't even have wings! Were not counting dayjet birds are we? In my book keel beams attached to a jig do not suffice as an almost aircraft.
Deep Blue,
"That engine (TFE-731), more than any other (along with the TPE line) brought us safe, reliable GA jet flight."
Let's hear it for the Honeywell TPE-331 Dash Ten. A pair of those are providing fine service here. 1000 thermodynamic horsepower, 820 shaft horsepower, 375 lb dry weight with superb fuel specifics.
KnotMPH said.... How did the pioneers do it?
===============================
They didn't. Haven't you read that from the time of the pilgrims to the expansion out west, more than 50% DIED.
Do you want to see these planes come out of the sky?
======================
Yeah, I can drive a car with out traction/stability control, blind spot monitors, GPS navigation, rear view cameras and integrated phone/voice control. But WHY WOULD I? The technology is there to make my ride more enjoyable, comfortable and safe.
You argument is a losing one. Pilots had voted the same way drivers had voted. They want very sophisticated and comfortable cockpits/interiors even if it sacrifices payload, efficiency, cost.
Get over it. Trabants went extinct and so did spartan planes for personal transportation.
"The technology is there to make my ride more enjoyable, comfortable and safe...
"They want very sophisticated and comfortable cockpits/interiors even if it sacrifices payload, efficiency, cost."
Nice "hood" ornament.
It would appear that, as usual, the goat is a bit recalitrant.
.)
"Trabant...The name was inspired by Soviet Sputnik."
And what a sexy beast it is!!
Speaking of sexy beasts...
(I'm not sure which of the three above options has more useful payload...or is faster...or is more recalitrant...or...)
Bravo to Black Tulip for another outstanding "observation" of a reality even more outlandish than Eclipse!!
That's another masterpiece and as fine as the headline posts come!
--------------------------------
Regarding posts, I have to vote for this one as my top candidate for "post of the EAC-NG blog", coincidently -or perhaps not- posted by Shane himself:
"...I take it you fancy a revival of EAC will succeed then.
Can I interest you in some Lunar real estate? I'm only looking for 10% as a down payment, and a very modest 60% only 6 months prior to delivery. I'm thinking of including a twin rocket 6 place space vehicle with a range of 800,000 nm, to get you to your new landholding.
And the good news?
You won't even need pilot training, as I've designed a computer system that will manage everything.
AvioNG was just so 20th century, when you look back at it.
Shane"
THAT well summarizes the excellent wit that has made it such a delicous delight to read the blog!!
Bravo to both these fine authors!!
:)
Hi Shane,
Thanks for the news on Sam Willimas- a real gent, I've been told.
Hi Gadfly,
Thanks for the link, and for the story about the fish! (Very apt).
(Say- Where's our pal CWMOR lately??)
Baron95
You completely missed the point (no one ever admits to being stupid, humorless or bad in the sack). Review Murphys Law - Anything that can go wrong will, and at the worst possible time.
You are in your feature laden vehicle and because you have four wheel drive (FIKI), Nav System (GPS), Cruise Control (Autopilot), heated seats and the ability to travel anywhere at any time; means, you WILL travel anywhere anytime without limit and with attitude. Because that IS the point.
After working overtime, again, on a Friday, you decide it's an acceptable risk to drive wherever, in the worst snowstorm in 30 years because you can. You have the technology (probably have NO idea of the function and don't care).
Did you pack some paper maps in case your GPS dies because you swerved off the road after a tree fell in front of you which knocked your windshield out of the frame and the off road excursion caused the inertial switch to disable your fuel pump? The seatbelt kept you from slamming into the dash but destroyed the cell phone in your pocket. No problem because you always carry insulated coveralls, flashlights and flares for just such an occasion along with a hand cranked radio. Mother Nature can take a nice, long lick, off your fat ---, right? RIGHT!
Your trained for winter survival and know full well the odds of SAR being launched are slim to less than ZERO. But you made it this far in comfort and style; all you have to do is revert to your training which was completed (religiously) no more than 90 days ago and McGuyver your way out of this unfortunate situation which could ONLY be classified as an act of god.
This is not the petulant act of one who is considered an adult by legal definition only. Ignorance is bliss......till someone gets hurt; then I pay for it (yes, ME!).
So here's a fantasy situation that happened to 'someone' around the 4,000 hour mark. Just after rotation and climb into a low overcast at night a lightning strike to the radome. No noise or flash or shudder, just instant ink black, dark. The smell of smoke in the cockpit (sorry, control cabin for you) and a rarely felt sense of vertigo.
The reason this 'fictional person' was in that situation was because he could be. (Radar ground and WX, Flight Computer, De-ICE, 3 Uhf, 2Vhf, 1 HF, 1 SatCOMM, INS (pre historic GPS sort of thingy), the panel of many instruments, a complete library of dog eared flight manuals, equally complete library of charts, SIDs, plates, flashlights, three packs of gum, one hundred dollars cash, condoms, half a pack of cigarettes and we were wearing sunglasses).
If it was not for the mandatory, frequent, recurring, expensive and boring training about those many systems which were knocked out that night, I believe a plane may have fallen out of the sky. You see, the technology does not fly the plane, it only makes flying easier for less experienced or of longer duration for experienced (14 hr++). When that technology fails, yes even Baron95 will try to revert to those pioneer skill sets which may or may not have been maintained (guessing he does not); or his friends can say- "at least it happened while he was doing what he loved." God almighty, I hate it when people say that!
They would say that because they knew he loved spinning, solo, uncontrolled in a darkened control cabin while lost in known icing conditions because he could AND it was legal. Well done indeed.
KnotMPH,
"You completely missed the point (no one ever admits to being stupid, humorless or bad in the sack)."
I don't understand what you're talking about- and whatever it is, I don't think it's very funny.
(Where's that d#@n bottle of blue pills...)
.)
I'm sorry KnotMPH.
We don't design, certify, train, fly or worry about improbable chains of multiple failures.
No one would get out of bed nor have sex (to use your analogy) if everyone was worried about the multiple failures.
I don't worry about the possibility of the "pill" failing AND the condom breaking AND the mate being fertile every time I have sex.
Nor do I worry about being IFR AND losing multiple independent systems AND losing the backups, etc.
If my mate gets pregnant it is because she didn't take the pill and I didn't put on a condom and she was fertile i.e. pilot/co-pilotess erros.
If I buy it in IFR, 99.999% chance is that I made a stupid decision, like pushing an approach or not having an icing out.
ALL the statistics are that stability control and airbags and side impact beams etc are saving lives every day.
Similarly in aviation. workload reducing technologies and visual/aural terrain depictions/warnings are as well (though stats are harder to come by in aviation).
You can worry as much as you want about the improbable and exotic. But it is the mundane that will kill you.
Shoot - half a dozen Americans died of H1N1 - freaking huge deal. In the mean time 6,000 Americans died of the regular flu - no mention.
Go figure.
Kathy wrote: In my book keel beams attached to a jig do not suffice as an almost aircraft.
Sorry Kathy, you are not a strong candidate for a job as an Ecorpse saleswoman.
At ecorpse, if we can find a mark to hand over the dosh and take delivery, then the Plane is "Complete" (tm Wedge).
:)
I'm surprised the NTSB stopped at recommending the AFM AD to inform the crew of the crossed throttle behavior.
It is a clear non-compliance, and should (imho) have been followed up by an AD to have it modded out.
Mr Gadfly :
YOU DID IT AGAIN ! ;-)
thanks for your wisdom ...
and by the way , do you know how Eastern Europeans got rid of wolves ?
(very similar to political situation , a bit anywhere ...)
they install a fine rope linking trees together to form a kind of U shape , then on the rope they stick colored paper , in a way that it move with the wind ...
then they start hunting the wolves ...
the beast trying to escape see those moving colored things and prefer to try its luck against guns than against its own fears ...
it is a very efficient way to get rid of wolves ...
but survey shows that if only one wolf has the stamina to "cross" this line with colored papers , it will never again be blocked by its own fears ...
if by adventure it reproduce , the newly born wolves will not be afraid themselves ...
Yes , Freedom ...
Ecorpse is of a value nil !
how do you call something that you are sure to put hell of a lot of money in ?
a scam !
How much money should you put in something that is going to cost you your arm , legs and eyes before anything good can be done with it , if by adventure you are mad-enough to try ?
0 ! in fact , you should get money ... i don't know about USA , but here in E.U. clearing-off and recycling doesn't come in for free !
Off-course , it would leave a big stain on a few C.V. for some local politicians ... (kinda :"how could he be so stupid to play and waste our money?") and probably make the Final Bill go a bit deeper in the local tax-payers pockets ...
but who could be stupid enough to actually PAY for junk ?
Junk which have all chances to be of no-use , apart making you spend a lot more for owning it ????
OT- 787 post.
I once did some work with GE and Snecma and the difference in "speed" between these two companies was incredible. Both are filled with top people, but GE moves at a pace which Snecma doesn't meet ( especially in August).
The 787 looks a lot like that too. Boeing built the 777 on time, according to plan.
To reduce their own financial risk on the 787 they went to a bunch of solid famous companies who said they could do the work, unfortunately they choose companies which don't have their "speed".
While I also find it incredible that Boeing management was stupid enough to subcontract nearly the entire 787 design and then trust their suppliers ( who were playing a big game of "Chicken" hoping that someone else would be the first to cave in and inform Boeing that they would not meet schedule), they are not the same as Ecorpse.
The 787 is a design which meets a clear market need.
Boeing is capable of making it happen (it would have already happened it they had just done it themselves).
Boeing is paying penalties to customers as agreed in the contracts.
Boeing is not delivering half finished A/C, crippled for the mission.
Given internal Boeing politics, I would guess that the Flight test division is flighting tooth and nail to prevent the first flight until everything is really ready.
Every delay before first flight is likely blamed on engineering/ Production. Every delay after that first flight will be blamed on the flight test team.
Monsieur Shane :
for your last post , may i suggest that you "need" your ConJet ??
so after the Lunar Land Plots ...
i would suggest to be a little more "disruptive" in offering Land-plots on Mars ...
Off-course , due to the length of trip to visit your future estate , 1% down-payment are considered before visiting our Demonstration Mock-up display !
Think for a second [more could be dangerous ! you're not really equipped for ...] : How trendy it will be in your next party (on the Moon?) to be the center of attention [later to be transformed into mockery ] as you will be one of the only ones to "Make it to Mars !" and how all the dinosaurs not able to see the breakthrough into this new ownership venture (as described in our leaflets on " Value-Proposition") will envy the superiority of your judgment and your will to make it come true ...
Fly into future ,Take me to the Moon then Fly to mars !
;-)
Freedom :
SNECMA (French firm) Working in August ???
you must be out of your mind !! ;-))
Fred, thants what I meant. I just didn't want to hurt anyones national pride :)
freedom :
don't worry , you didn't !!
knowing the limits of a system i s the best way to understand how works the system ...
for the ones who do not have the chance (?) of knowing those weird animals i call my fellow-citizens ...
most important firms or decisions are taken in Paris ...
Parisians who complain 11 months per year to be "stacked one onto an other" (in fact Paris is very small ... only 2 millions inhabitants !)
so they almost all take the same month of vacations in the same place (Côte d 'Azur) the "funny" aspect of this = if they go to somewhere where there is only few : they start complaining about it being boring "because it is almost a desert , nobody around !!"
if any want to see Paris with its own inhabitants : avoid August , where the crowd is made at 99% of foreigners !!
From the BK court today:
"The Trustee contemplates a schedule in July that will provide for a sale motion to be filed and heard in July, and before July 29, 2009. As stated in the Application, the Trustee contemplates an immediate need to provide legal representation to him in connection with Antitrust Law Issues."
And,
"The Trustee is currently in negotiations with a bidder concerning the terms of an Asset Purchase Agreement. Therefore, for these and other reasons, the Trustee contemplates the immediate need for legal representation with respect to Antitrust Law Issues (as defined below) on an immediate basis."
Here come da judge...
In the form of the Hart-Scott-Rodino Act. This might imply a potential acquirer has sales in excess of $126 million, stock worth $200 million or more, or a deal value in excess of $50 million.
Think how anti-competitive it would be to have Eclipse combine forces with any of the other airframe players? It could reshape the aviation landscape (and provide the source of future humor).
rule for HSR :
(from wikipedia)
The rules are somewhat complicated. The general rule was a filing was required if three tests are met; (1) the transaction affects commerce; (2) either (a) one of the parties has sales each year or assets of US$100 million or more [as of 2008, raised to $126.3 million] and the other party has sales or assets of $10 million or more [2008:$12.6 million]; or (b) the amount of stock the acquirer has is valued at $200 million or more [2008:$252.3 million] at any time; and (3) the value of the transaction is $50 million or more [2008:$63.1 million]
at same time, it seems that the Date for trustee is indicating a "Not all cash transaction" ...
the saga is not finished yet ...
(3) the value of the transaction is $50 million or more [2008:$63.1 million]
It sounds like someone is trying to make a small fortune out of Eclipse.
Freedom, on 787, It is interesting to note that this latest flaw happens in 36 points (18 per side) there the central wing box joins with the "on-wing-box" - sorry - that is the best way to help people understand.
One was designed built by MHI the other by FHI. These, by the way are some the largest most critical composite structures on the design. I wonder if there is finger pointing going on there.
Either way, I heard the issue was discovered back in April, and it was not just higher stress readings on the stress gauges, but that actual delamination of the surfaces happened.
How the heck the BCA execs stood up last week in Paris and affirmed that first flight would be by June 28th, knowing about the problems is beyond me.
My "guess" is that they tried a quick patch/fix and it still did not meet load.
Gad - here is an opportunity (seriously) for you company to design a 2"x" stress relief or reinforcement for the composite joint points. Don't ask me why a simple double sided 2"x2" aluminum patch with 3 fasteners per side does not work.
It has to be better than this, right?
Re Eclipse anti-trust, maybe he needs help structuring the deal to avoid it, but either way, review should be very quick.
On an even sadder note....A new study by the Population Reference Bureau reports that the average age of US flight attendants was 44 in 2007, up from 30 in 1980.
Meanwhile at Cathay and Singapore...
On an even sadder note....A new study by the Population Reference Bureau reports that the average age of US flight attendants was 44 in 2007, up from 30 in 1980.
Finally meaningful statistics on this blog.
Don't need to look much further than this to find the root cause of why commercial flying is becoming less and less attractive ;)
Blogger fred said...
Baron have ever tried Qatar ?
the last time i did , the flight attendants (only female ones) could have had asked to jump out from the plane any man onbord without parachute in the middle of Indian Ocean at any height on "just" a single smile ...
one of them was a bit more open than other one , she told me that they were recruited on experience + age + look ...
with some very good financial incentives ...
the only thing i can say , the recruiter has VERY good tastes !! ;-)
Freedom :
not too much disturbed by the floods ?
on Boeing 787 : you are probably right ...
nonetheless a good firm work like a chain : the weakest point of all is the main problem ...
a bit like Airbus when they had communications-problems because top-managers didn't get on well ...
this explain why a sum of average is sometimes better than only one or two point excellent and the rest total crap ...
EAC victims found it at their own expenses !
Baron95,
How the heck the BCA execs stood up last week in Paris and affirmed that first flight would be by June 28th, knowing about the problems is beyond me.
The shares went up - it's better to tell the bad news at a new high!
It's just a little thing BAC already knows how to repair...??????. But when...the schedules for first flight, delivery...
Perhaps Boeing wants to perform the first flight at the same day with Airbus's A400M... so they have some time!
Julius
julius :
at the same time than A400M ??
well , i am not sure to live that long !! ;-)
fred,
bonjour!
well , i am not sure to live that long !!
Did anybody made that promise?
Asked if that meant delamination, meaning separation of layers in the composite material, Mr Fancher didn't specify exactly but hinted that visible damage was apparent.
Source: Heralsun in AU
"some weeks " might be a good answer!
EAC - correct assets of EAC:
Another month for Mike Mc....
Some one is willing to pay more than $M50 - why didn't that company made that offer in January/February?
Crazy!
Julius
Julius :
do not take apart the fact that "EAC assets sale" may be an other stunt ...
(one in so many ...!)
on the A400M : i am not sure it will see the sun from closer , any day ...
this thing seems to be so late and postponed and more late and more postponed ...
one would easily wonder if Vern isn't behind !! ;-)
but if by any means , the trustee can achieve the sale (i would lower my hat to the floor for such ...)
it can mean only that the creditors are selling papers against other papers ...
which was not in the mood previously : a clear indication that the Now-creditors see no other alternatives ...
(as a cash offer )
it may be better to have something "paper" than Eac in its now state !
anyway as you said , a bit crazy !!
From the Supreme Court of the State of New York, in the matter of Alfred E. Mann Living Trust v. ETRIC Aviation and Roland Pieper, Case # 600849/09:
After hearing extensive argument on the record the court granted plantiff's motion as against Pieper and put the matter over to July 15, 2009 at 2:15 PM as it concerns whether ETRIC was porperly served and jurisdiction obtained over the entity.
Filed June 24, 2009
(note - 'arguement' was listed as singular, don't think Pieper had counsel)
Article on what happened with local suppliers and Eclipse.
Reading the full Mann ruling, it looks like the judge is calling Roel a dirtbag ("It could not be clearer that Pieper waived his right to personal service of the process in this action."). So the only question is whether ETIRC itself was properly served. It's rather an unusual seeing an individual be ruled against before their business is.
Hi Fred - haven't tried Qatar, yet. I'm drawing the line on my travels to Asia, Africa, Middle East - I'm only doing Americas and occasionally Europe for now. Boring, but the time away from family was getting out of control.
Maybe next year.
Mann needs to learn from Obama how to do a proper DIP....
GM bankruptcy judge ruled today that General Motors can have access to its full $33.3 billion in bankruptcy financing. How cool is that, hugh? One third of US$100B for DIP.
How can this possibly be fair to Ford and their shareholders?
But I digress. I think part of the Eclipse story are the willingness of owners, depositors and Mann to enter into one-sided contracts against them. Just like the US gvmt is entering in lopsided contracts. In this case against us the taxpayers.
From an email forwarded to me by a 747 captain, which was forwarded to him via a group of airline pilots he maintains contact with. I cannot assure the veracity, but pretty graphic stuff:
"The world saw the disappearance of an A330 Air Frane during its trans Atlantic flight between Rio to Paris .
> Here are two shots taken inside the plane before it crashed.
> The two photos attached were taken by one of the passengers before the aircraft crashed. This extraordinary photographer kept his cool, even in his last moments of life, to take these photos. The photos were retrieved from the camera's memory stick. You will never again see photos like this.
> In the first photo, there is a gaping hole in the fuselage through which you can see the tailplane and a vertical fin of the aircraft.
> In the second photo, one of the passengers is seen being sucked out of the gaping hole.
> The photos were found in a digital Casio Z750, amidst the debris. Although the camera was destroyed, the Memory Stick was recovered. It can be imagined that he was standing during the turbulence, he managed to take these photos, just seconds after the tail loss and the aircraft plunged. The structural stress probably ripped the engines away, diminishing the falling speed, protecting the electronic equipment but unfortunately not the victims.
Sorry, WT, but you've been duped: http://www.snopes.com/photos/accident/brazil737.asp
"From an email forwarded to me by a 747 captain, which was forwarded to him via a group of airline pilots he maintains contact with. I cannot assure the veracity, but pretty graphic stuff"
This is probably the 'Lost' hoax. Ever since the TV show 'Lost' airer interior shots of a fictional airliner crash these images are circulated as pictures from real airliner crashes.
Google 'lost air france crash hoax' .
Lots of people and news agencies have been taken in by this hoax.
"Sorry, WT, but you've been duped:"
Well ... sort of. I did say I couldnt assure the veracity, and I said this because there was a nagging thought in my head that for this to be the real thing, some extraordinary things would have had to happen. But, thanks to my fellow bloggers, I didnt spend a lot of time pondering how this could have happened as described. Some folks have a lot more time on their hands than others.
Aaahh, the 'interweb'.
Don't worry WT, I got 'caught' with one of these, early in this blog, with an E500 that 'lost' an engine during taxi.
Sadly a world (in)famous Moonwalker will never now get the chance to experience my 'twin rocket, 6 place spaceship with an 800,000 nm range'.
Michael Jackson is dead....
Nothing to do with EAC, but I just thought I'd mention it.
Shane
Whytech
It’s easy to be “duped”. I’ve done some remarkable things using “Abobe Photoshop”, and other “high end” software . . . it’s not all that difficult these days. Shucks . . . we can use something like “Adobe Audition” and “Adobe Premiere”, and change a single note, a frame . . . almost anything. Even an “old guy” like me can fiddle with the digital stuff, and come out looking like a genius.
But the flight crew aboard that aircraft was also “duped”, into thinking that they would complete another safe and un-eventful flight. And my first guess is that they flew into something beyond their abilities. Second? . . . “Airbus” has serious issues, not yet addressed . . . Third guess? . . . something subversive/terrorist related. Will we ever find out? . . . maybe not! But I would start with the first two.
Back when I was doing a lot of flying aboard the commercial equipment, I often listened to comments among the flight crew/attendants . . . and never felt comfortable with their “off handed” remarks about Airbus, compared to the Boeing equipment. And my own impressions . . . the sound and “feel” of the equipment . . . well, I have some firm opinions from the years when I was the “customer”.
It’s alright to be wrong now and then . . . but a “first impression” is often the best. And, if you’re like me, I listen for every subtle sound of the “six cylinders” as they fire up on my Lexus every morning . . . hearing things that no other human can hear. (But then my earliest memories were listening to my grandfather’s “farm engines”, and coming to almost imagine the various things going on inside an engine, as each valve opened and closed . . . and later, as a “Roots” blower, scavenged air through massive Fairbanks-Morse two-stroke diesels, 24/7 on long underwater patrols . . . etc., etc.)
There is sometimes a symbiotic relationship . . . at least in understanding, between man and machine . . . not within explanation, but never-the-less a real thing. ‘Not the Disney “Herby” VW fantasy, but an almost “organic” understanding, between human and machine . . . after all, “humans” designed and built the beast . . . and there will always be a connection . . . provided the “designer” can “communicate” with the machine, especially within the final moments before a disaster occurs.
By now, most of you have figured out that the “gadfly” has finally “hit the windshield”* with my reasoning, but per chance there are some that will take it seriously . . . and think about the two “black boxes”, and explore how some of this thinking might be recorded and preserved, and literally brought to the surface, automatically, when events of this nature occur in the future.
gadfly
*(And of course you already know the last thing that passes through the mind of a “bug” when it hits your windshield! . . . His “butt”!)
Although Michael Jackson is gone, he leaves us with the question:
"How do you tell when it is midnight in Neverland?"
"When the big hand touches the little hand."
A last comment about those famous/infamous “black boxes” (which are not at all “black”, but painted in “international orange”):
If I were in charge of such things, I would be totally embarrassed to admit that these devices are not already attached to the aircraft, in such a way, that they “freely”, and without restriction, “float” to the surface, and send a “Mayday” to the world, saying, “Here I am, and I have the final data of this disaster aboard my ‘Mini-Ark’, ready to reveal ‘all’ . . . Hello, hello, hello, hello, . . . . . . . . . etc.” . . . until the power runs out, and then switch over to the “saltwater batteries”.
Back “fifty years ago”, we had a little device . . . a “mini-torpedo”, about five feet long, and six inches in diameter, with vertical and horizontal fins, and wires from nose to fins, to prevent fouling in sea-weed, etc. The single “screw” was about three inches diameter (our "sub's screws" were nine feeet in diameter, with a "five foot pitch", counter rotating, like a "P-38") . . . a “cute little” thing. It would receive an “enemy” sonar pulse, or other sound in the water, and “send it back” to the source. The idea was to put it into one of the four “stern tubes” (the “back end” of the submarine, to you “land-lubbers”), flood the tube, open the outer door, . . . the sea-water would activate the salt-water battery, the tiny decoy would “swim” out the stern tube, and hopefully send an “enemy” in the opposite direction. Did it work? . . . I don’t know! . . . Because before we could deploy it, we had been “found out”, "bad guys were directly above us", and spent the next couple of days of available breathable air getting out from under a most difficult situation. (Want more? Read “Chapter 2" of “Blind Man’s Bluff” . . . Whiskey a Go Go . . . the sub that replaced us got the “heat"). It's OK . . . and legal, the patrol reports were "declassified from Secret" within the past two years. (Now I can tell my grandkids!)
The point being, “salt water batteries”, sometimes used and dropped by “P2V Neptunes” and helicopters, a half century ago, to find the likes of us sneaky submariners, are not new technology. And now we have “lithium” cells (35 years ago, I was working on subcontracts for Sandia Labs on this stuff, with material called “Min-K” . . . looks and feels like soaked/pressed/dried “Kleenex” . . . but nothing you would ever wish to breath, and delicate as machining a “butterfly wing”, and you think that asbestos is dangerous). There is no excuse for there not being a unit that will float to the surface after an “incident” (translated: major disaster), and declare it’s location.
The technology is ancient . . . so are the excuses for not having immediate data when a disaster takes place. And now, we no longer need a “tape recorder”, with solid state memory chips, easily recording non-volatile multi-channel data for almost endless hours. Take it one step further, and the “data” would have been transmitted in a “burst” to a satellite receiver. I’m not looking for constant surveillance . . . but the funny thing is “that’s already in place”( . . . sorry, but your cell phone and internet correspondence is an open book, already).
Well, there’s enough here to start a revolution, or at least to stir up the little “grey cells” for future discussion.
As they say down in New Mexico, “Hasta la bye bye!” . . . time to go home and play with the childrens’ mother.
gadfly
That fundamental relationship between man and machine has changed exponentially in the last 20 years.
Gone is the shade tree mechanic, manual choke and vehicle identification from exhaust or tappet noises.
Technology as it is called has turned the man into the machines servant. He knows more and more about less and less but still wants to cling to autonomous relevance.
When the first in-vehicle nav systems were being developed it was with accelerometers as the basis for updated positioning (not GPS).
The entire system was 'on board' which meant no external input or antennas to worry about. The advent of GPS, even with the SA changed most things.
The intent was to go 'off-board' then, positions from the satellites with routing and map display downloading from a parasite or different satellite. You only use a percentage of a percentage of the map database and it only updates when you install a new one.
For some reason, the industry felt the customer would gladly pony up money for updates and live with an extra dozen touch points at the alter of technology. A person comfortable with the technology would put up great resistance. Should Nav systems be called HAL? Have the customers been duped?
It is bemusing to see someone fiddle with the map database for their IFR GPS; then tell me about how they get real-time WX with the same system. I ask, why not do the same with the map? Oh, far too complicated...you wouldn't understand.
After showing me all of the functions and selecting airports with terrain warning, I ask about the fuel feature. What fuel feature? Surely your multifunction GPS with WX and terrain avoidance can be coupled with your transducers, fuel gauge or fuel monitor. If you are anywhere near Bingo the system could warn you and offer a route to an airport with fuel. Kind of a cross check against fuel starvation.
Oh, far too complicated.....you don't understand.
WhyTech said...From an email forwarded to me by a 747 captain, which was forwarded to him via a group of airline pilots he maintains contact with.
----------------------
WhyTech, no fault from you..... BUT .... Your 747 captain and their "group of airline pilots" should know better.
Give a ways. Pictures show sunny daylight outside. AF A330 real crash happened at NIGHT and STROMY weather. Also, the interior is not even of an A330, it is not even a widebody for crying out loud. It appears to be a 737 Classic (733/734/736) interior.
To think that professional airline pilots can be duped this way and join in the spread of tasteless photos is sickening.
KnotMPH....
There is no question that things are moving into that direction with over the air updates and more integration. It just takes time to get there. Aviation is very incremental. Eclipse is a perfect example of what can happen if you try to bite more than you can chew.
Meanwhile, the GPS receiver on the iPhone is estimated to cost $1.65 and the software and database are free to consumers. Not bad.
KnotMPH
Ah, my dear friend . . . Who can describe . . . say . . . "Song of the Lark", by "Breton" in technical words! Or "Starry Night" by Van Gogh . . . technically, impossible.
But if "HAL" had trully human feelings . . . no, make that "understanding" at a base level . . . there's a border here, that seperates the "logic" from the "image" in which we are created.
So much to discuss . . . so many ethical restrictions . . . so little time!
gadfly
(For the moment, a simple "black box" that floats would sure make the headlines. How expensive is a large piece of cork?)
HI Fred,
"Fly into future ,Take me to the Moon then Fly to mars !"
Hmmm, why not Jupiter or Mars...
(Frank Sinatra, Fly Me To THe Moon)
Personally, I thought this one was a bit "peppier":
Up there, where the air is rarefied
(Frank Sinatra, Come Fly With Me)
"if you can use some exotic boose, there's a bar in far Bombay..."
Hmmm- thin air, and some Koolaid- the secret of Eclipse marketing success !!
"In Lama land, there's a one man band, and he'll toot his flute for you..."
(Er, you're darn tootin' !!...didn't know New Mexico had lamas...)
---------------------------------
Just in case we are tempted to be a bit surly towards those who are still die-hards, or "believers", Frankie reminds us to behave!
The House I Live In
(circa 1945)
Austin Powers reminds us to behave as well:
Oh Behave!
(circa 1997)
...I imagine that's about what Mr. Mann said to Wedge.
Mr Gadfly ...
fact is you're right ... again !
all our correspondence , mobile babble and any electronic dispatch are being listened by the Echellon system ...
so theoretically speaking , if one wants to know , we could have access to data to understand a bit more , if not all ...
on the HAL thing :
when i was in the Navy , we had a guy , very tough one , who tried to put (by force ;-) it was army , before all ) the mechanism of finding by ourselves "Where on earth can we be " using Sextant and a good clock ...
we all had the same feeling : not enough "grey material inside" to swallow it all ...
the guy wasn't exactly a party-goer so as for choice we were left with only 2 options :
learn it now
or
learn it now with a good kick where it is painful ...
(i always been very amused by the psychological approach of army...)
find the logic and maths totally "out of its time" since it is so much easier to push a button , now ...
on the second crossing of Atlantic Ocean i did with a sail boat , on board with a few friends toward Brazil , 2 days after we left Senegal , we experienced a "Battery leakage" making all electric and electronic apparatus absolutely useless ...
i was the only one to know how to use a sextant without a probability of error ; showing us our position in the middle of Broadway , N-Y...
i wish i could have kissed that sore s.o.b from the navy for teaching me !
the point : technology is wonderful ... it enable us to go much faster , much further , much simpler ...
still , there is a very good reason WHY humanity did a few things in a certain way at the time ...
so tech is wonderful , if you do not forget how to do without this tech or better : learn both ... just in case !!
Hi , billy :
it was just a natural extension of the "Marketing" from EAC (flying into future)
combined with Monsieur Shane "Lunar plot sale" ...
as the text was a kind of "syllabus" for the new start of "International Eclipse Ng 2" as for catching new bees(victims) with some juicy (money) appeal ;-)
Franck Sinatra :
i did mention him because , in my sick mind , he symbolize the America i loved when i was a kid ...
so the "fly me to the moon" is made on purpose
it is when listening F.Sinatra when a kid that i promised myself to , one day , live in New York ...
Whytech :
no worries for the hoax ...
it could have been true ,but very unlikely ...!
the fact is that when you're inboard a plane in a place that doesn't belong to any country , you are technically speaking in the country of the plane ...
France is extremely restrictive of private life ...
one of the reason why some "well known ones" are having something in the country ...
i am destroying an other myth , here ... ;-)
why do you think the Pitt+Jolie couple had their kid in france ?
to enable the kid to become french : No !
because they loved the spot ? : No !
only because if they were to sale the photos , anyone making his own "stolen ones" could be sued very easily for multi-millions $ damages ...!
so anyone "leaking" such photos as the last minutes of AF447 would be pretty much in deep shit ...!
violating the "unalienable image property rights" in a french territory!
Another first for the EA-500.
The first VLJ to have a it's TC suspended. Congratulations.
Freedom,
Couple of thoughts cross my (miniature) brain with the news that EASA has suspended its' TC.
1. Some of the guys and gals at the FAA will probably be regretting the day they got involved with Eclipse Aviation. This EASA announcement is bound to trigger another round of searching questions in Washington, at the very least.
2. Insurance companies will not doubt be impressed, especially here in Europe. How do you describe an orphan aircraft who's European TC has been suspended, when there is no company behind it to re-apply for one?
3. Will any party interested in the 'assets' of EAC reconsider it's position in the light of this?
Shane
Fred,
Now that Al Mann has a $10m judgment against Pieper, what are Mann's chances of seizing any of Pieper's assets in Europe.
EAC :
Always on the High-end of progress !
With us , you'll always be the first ... everywhere ...!
(good marketing , no ?)
Monsieur Stan :
what are the chances of Mann ?
about the same than throwing a handful of coins up in the air and bet on the ones which will stay there ...
IF RiP has something between the ears , he probably did everything possible to complicate any claims ...
being Dutch , operating a defunct Luxembourg entity while officially living in France means :
who is going to care the "baby" ?
just this question has all chances to drag until Mann will have passed ...
of-course , if he did the right thing , but i don't know why , i am pretty sure that on such he is top-notch ...! ;-)
it is quite easy to do ...
i remain a real enigma for the Tax-administration of the last European country where i lived ...
bit later in the year i will be completely out of touch for them ...
and i am very far from being any clever !!
Stan,
Fred has a excellent point. There are so many places to 'hide' money in Europe, particularly for wealthy individuals.
Everyone knows the 'classical' locations, like Switzerland, Liechtenstein and Monaco. What most people miss are the 'second tier' hideaways like the Isle of Man, Andorra, Malta, San Marino et al.
Of course, if you REALLY wish to hide, try the 'Turkish' side of Cyprus.
I'm also hearing good reports of the New Europeans, who are more than happy to accommodate those with more money than they should have.
Put it another way. If you want to 'vanish', you can forget the US of A. Too many controls on how you guys move yourselves and your money. Join the European Union (as predicted by Black Tulip) and enjoy the freedom of a single currency across 27 nations with no border controls.
Just like Roel...
Shane
I forgot to add :
In European Union , you can live in a place while NOT being living Officially there ...
it only means that you are living in this spot for less than 182 days per year ...
while your Main place of living is the one where you spend more than 183 days/year ...
if you are crazy enough , you can very simply have several places (from 3 onward) where you go alternatively for a maximum of 3 months in one go , you can choose freely WHERE is your main place of residence ...
off course , you may choose the one serving your interests the best !
nonetheless , you will still have access to any other ones , especially if you organized the ownership in a kind of Entity like Etrick was ... ;-)
Another one bites the dust, Snippet
Reports around the industry say that Alan Klapmeier, CEO of Cirrus, is forming a company to take over the Vision SJ 50 single engined jet.
Seems sensible to isolate the problem, then try and deal with it. Cirrus should be ok, once they get rid of this particular turkey.
Will he be able to raise enough cash to keep this program going, or is this just a prelude to ditching something that seemed like a good idea before the Crash of 09?
Time will tell...
Shane
Monsieur Shane :
i am sorry to contradict you on some points :
1° If you bear a US passport , you are then sentenced to pay IRS wherever you live in the world ...
Off-course , some "Forget" but they only get more into troubles when going back to Homeland ...
2° The Rome treaty (the thing starting E.U.) prescribe in the Art.2 the total liberty of funds within E.U.
Switzerland is not part of E.U.
might be a bit suspicious if you bring cash ...
(this is where Lux . is wonderful !)
3° Turkish Cyprus is not exactly where i would advice deposits ...
unless you have problems with the origins of your money ...!
Fred,
1. Agreed. That's why it's important to locate your Irish ancestor (40 millions Americans claim to have one) and apply for an EU passport here in Dublin. We're very accommodating on matters like this.
2. The guiding principle of Swiss banking has always been the Golden Rule. He who has the gold makes the rules.
3. Turkish Cyprus is the last place I'd go. But I did mention a 'hideaway'. So, if you are on the run, go somewhere nobody else wants to go. Especially if you own a nice big yacht....
Shane
Monsieur Shane ...
yes , i agree !
our "cousins" from the other side may think we are talking an undisclosed language ... ;-)
so basically , due to different tax systems and lack of uniformity on fiscal policies within the E.U. :
for each tax , there is between 1 to N² numbers of dispositions , rules or differences allowing peoples with a certain wealth to avoid this said tax !
Like in Luxembourg if the structure of your firm permit it , you can very easily "Talk" the amount of income-tax you are willing to pay with the fiscal administration itself ...
(with only one limitation = you have to pay something !)
Luxembourg being E.U. , if you can prove you paid in one place , you won't do it again , anywhere !! ;-)
Swiss is a bit more delicate in my case , with french + german passports , unfortunately both of those countries are not Swiss-friendly for the ones having their dosh there ... (which works very well for Monsieur Shane , Ireland having a very relax Tax system ...)
an other particularity of our system (valid for most E.U. mainland ) you can owe all the money of the world to the IRS , you will be considered as a naughty-boy , but that's about all !! (no jail , no breaking of E.U. standards for getting your money , etc ...)
Regarding the chances for Mann recovering the judgment, I put it at slim to none as long as Roel doesn't attempt to do business in the US. As long as Roel keeps his assets overseas, he doesn't even have to hide them as it would be challenging to get a foreign judgment against Roel. I expect Roel is more worried about the fallout of all his name-dropping of claiming to be totally in with Putin than he is worried about the fallout of the Mann judgment.
WT, just because you were duped, don't take it out on me. And don't make any blanket assumptions about me having more time on my hands than others (or you)–I actually have little precious time outside of work and family.
"WT, just because you were duped, don't take it out on me."
Shadow, dont flatter yourself - I wasnt thinking of you at all in my comments on this subject. I was referring to those who have the time to dream up and execute such hoaxes.
OIC
SP et al, re: EASA: yes, indeed; troubling in general and for FAA. Not likely to get any exposure in the US; too many other pressing issues that our press follows, like Michael Jackson. Keeps the masses numb: "what the American public doesn't know is what makes them the American public."
On another note, I had a notion to pass by the highly esteemed professionals that read and write here:
Would it be more productive if airplane design and development were separated from airplane production?
Example: Boeing 'carves out' the 787 program as strictly a cost, R&D project, seperate from the production function of the old-line installed 737 line etc.
Why co-mingle development with older-line operations/sales?
Would EAC have been better off if it offered investors positions in "EAC Development" (the airplane R&D/IP) and another capital structure for "EAC Production and Distribution."
Another way: why mix R&D (sunk costs) with operating production (order book fullfillment).
Thoughts?
Deep Blue, et al,
The design and/or business strategy has little bearing on the problem, if the people involved are basically dishonest. Anything built on a corrupt foundation is certain to fail . . . and Eclipse is no exception. If this were an experiment in physics, we would be observing the verification of the second law of thermodynamics . . . accelerated in the world of economics.
There ‘tis! Observe and beware!
gadfly
(We could come up with a complex explanation, but it boils down to a rather simple solution, so why bother with the fancy talk . . . the final answer remains the same.)
I had a notion to pass by the highly esteemed professionals that read and write here:
Would it be more productive if airplane design and development were separated from airplane production?
Though I'm not an aviation professional, it's a notion that has, and continues to, provoke thought. If I properly understand what you're suggesting, personally, I think it's a step or three in the wrong direction.
-The Soviet system completely separated design from production. How's that worked out?
-The closest parallel in the West would be military procurement - not very cost effective, and getting less so.
-An aircraft in production is still in development, at any rate. What are they up to on the F-16, tranche 3051?
-Design and production are inextricably linked. Ignoring this invites real doozies of production bottlenecks, and the loss of profitability and competitiveness that comes along with 'em ( I've been guilty of this one a few times, and hence renounced my membership in the Church of The Designer Is Always Right - to good effect for all ). The folks who actually make stuff tend to know what can be made with efficiency.
Though I'm under the impression that freshly minted engineering grads already spend some time in production before moving on to actual design responsibilities, I could advocate for fully 50% of the design engineers involved on any given project taking real, live, and enduring production roles once serial manufacture begins.
The short-term cost of such an absurd notion would yield tremendous benefits over a longer term.
Just a handful of thoughts on the subject...
Would you like the combo?
DI
fred said...
In European Union , you can live in a place while NOT being living Officially there
===========================
And what is so exotic about that? We've been doing the same thing in the US for as long as I can remember. New Yorkers, for example, keep a place in Florida, and spend 183 days there to avoid paying New York income taxes, among other things.
Big deal!!!
Fred, the more you try to compare Europe with the US, the more it becomes clear that you know very little about the US and other countries, even though you claim such an international mind.
If don't know other countries, at least be like BEG. Hit google or even wiki before posting.
Re: EASA TC Revocation...
Why is this a surprise or a big deal? With the owner of the TC not operating and not in a position to support the TC, revocation is automatic.
When another operating entity is again supporting the TC, I'm sure reinstatement will be straight forward.
It will have NO IMPACT on the past history of FAA certification of the EA500. As much as Shane et all want to dream about a big "trial of the FAA", that will not happen. give it up. The best you got was the wet dream of a meaningless congressional hearing. You guys watch a bit too much TV courtroom shows.
DB asked...Would it be more productive if airplane design and development were separated from airplane production?
=========================
DB, that is the direction of *ALL* manufacturing. It is simply a matter of core competencies.
Lets start with electronics. Apple's core competency is to design the form, function and marketing of the iPhone. Flextronics core competency is to build the iPhone. UPS (or another supply chain freighter) core competency is to ship and clear customs for the iPhone all over the world. Samsung's core competency is to develop and build the Flash chips of the iPhone. Black Eye Peas core competency is to create songs for iTunes (et al), etc.
BMW and Jag, use ZF transmissions. Lotus uses Toyota's engine. Tesla uses Lotus' chassis. All of the above use Brembo's brakes, etc.
Boeing's core competencies are marketing analysis, design, final assembly and certification of airliners.
At one time - Boeing, United Technologies and United Airlines were all part of same company - airframe, airline, engines.
Now Boeing does not build engines (a key component of an airliner). Nor do they build avionics - they subcontract that to BAE or Collins or whatever. Same for tires, brakes, hydraulics, etc.
Why should a tube (a.k.a. fuselage barrel) be any different? Taken to its conclusion, wings and the rest of the airframe also.
I think that 40 years from now (2 airline generations), there will be establish engine (2 or 3), fuselage (3 or 4), wings (2 or 3), avionics (3 or 4), etc major suppliers for jetliners.
I think Boeing, EADS, Embraer, etc, will partner and/or co-develop with these major suppliers to build future airliners. Their expertise will be Market Requirements, certification, final assembly (maybe), sales, support, etc.
Yes. Boeing screwed up on the 787.
But be careful not to draw the wrong conclusion. It is not (probably) because it is the wrong model. It is (probably) because it was poorly executed.
After all, Motorola, Nokia, Palm, etc *ALL* tried to do the same thing that Apple tried to do with the iPhone.
Their success or failure, is independent of outsourced manufacturing.
DB further asked....Another way: why mix R&D (sunk costs) with operating production (order book fullfillment).
=====================
Actually, DB, these are almost never mixed. R&D costs end up being capitalized. Production costs are typically not - they are, as you called them OPEX - operating expenses. Now it is not that clean as you can capitalize some of your in-process/in-inventory production, and not all R&D gets capitalized, but you got the gist.
So, for example, if Eclipse was producing audited financials, you'd see a capitalization (an asset) associated with Avio Software or FSW, the EA50 TC, the factory, etc.
If they were using mark-to-market accounting, you would even see the value of those items rise and fall, though companies are still learning that "art".
Many companies, even integrated ones, are organized as a design company, a service company, a finance company, a tech company etc as subsidiaries.
In our example, DayJet was organized as such. They had a SW Development/Tech company, an "Airline" Company, a Leasing company (IIRC).
Tesla organized as a battery/electric-propulsion design company and an auto manufacturing company.
I, personally, think that is smart business. The first advice you'll get from me (if you paid ;)) on a new integrated or complex business, is to organize as independent companies under a holding company, based on core competencies. This way, it is easier to invest/finance in one, spin another, kill another, etc based on how things develop.
Smart business, almost regardless of industry, maturity, etc.
A wet dream is if our government organized like this and put the functions up for bid.
The US did a bit with prison operations, Brazil did a bit with road ownership, there is a tiny bit of charter schools, but mostly it goes nowhere because of the government unions.
But how cool would it be if we licensed say 3 providers for New York City schools, gave the parents a $12K voucher and let them choose which one to send the kids to?
Oh, well. That is too *hard*. Lets just let the government and the government unions run everything from education to GM. Less stressful.
D.I. said...-Design and production are inextricably linked.
Yikes. That is so 1950s. See examples above. If Apple tried to build the iPod they'd be dead.
If Cisco tried to build the routers they designed they'd be dead.
You know, Ford, once, at The Rouge, received iron and coal and rubber and plastics, etc from the river and spilled out complete automobiles the other end. Now every manufacturer pushes out, as far as they can, sub-system designs to their suppliers.
As competitive pressures continue to build, this process will continue to accelerate.
Baron :
And what is so exotic about that?
baron , my poor little baron ...
i never claimed to know all about USA ...
i said : i have been living 2 years in New-York , mostly out of a kid's dream i had ...
UNLIKE YOU , when you are claiming KNOWING for a fact that Life , Tax even Perfume are more expensive in E.U. than it is in your land ...
you see you are typically the kind of person that made me hate my stay in the US ...
you are so full of it !
i was argumenting on the WHY Roel doesn't have to worry for more than 1 second about the Mann's court story ...
PS: My total income tax is around 1(one) % in a perfectly legal manner without restricting me to transfer , use , give any sum anywhere on earth ...
just don't believe me ! some are so sure we are paying tax to the neck ...
PPS : Ok it is not big deal , could you tell me WHY so many are bragging about B.Obama raising tax ? isn't it a case of crying before suffering ???
Btw :
since you know all ...
the other day you claimed that USA is importing 338B$ per year ...
could you explain me then :
Why the World-bank estimate the US trade deficit at around 1.5 ; 2 B$ per day ?
(do the calculation , you'll see the 365 time 2 = much more than 338 ... and we are talking ONLY about trade deficits ...)
since , i can hear you form here (West coast of France , where i get re-train on stars-navigation and weird animals called steradian !) bragging that it was only about China ...
could you explain me , then :
How the Chinese managed to save about 2 to 3 Trillions $ in the last decade on the benefit of the trade they make with USA ... since they mainly sell low added value products or (as what you claimed) on the High added value products (such as Ipod) the main part of profit is generated or brought back in USA ?
you see , obviously something is wrong ...
is it the W-B stats (unfortunately the IMF has the same ) ?
the amount of illusions meant to keep US populace in the "better-if-not-known" ?
or the admirable quality consisting to believe being the center of world ?
(the world is a sphere , apart in the middle of it , there is no center !! ;-) )
you see , it is of no importance to be "International" ...
more a question to be able to understand locals of where you are , when you are ...!
as for me , i never pretended to be , i am happy enough to be myself without having to brag anything ...
how about you ? ;-)
the same about a family :
if the family has an income of 1000$ per month , but spend 2000$ in the same period ...
only very few ways out :
Stop spending ?
(how are they going to claim being so trendy if they cannot spend anymore ?)
Put great-grand-pa back to work ?
(feeding those non-working-mouths is such an expense !!)
Rely on generous donation ?
(but what about if Donators are broke , themselves ? or simply not willing ? )
you see , any family can claim making fortune all the time ...
what is important is HOW much is left at the end ...
if it is only debts , then they were ONLY rich of debts !!! ;-)
"You know, Ford, once, at The Rouge, received iron and coal and rubber and plastics, etc from the river and spilled out complete automobiles the other end. Now every manufacturer pushes out, as far as they can, sub-system designs to their suppliers."
Well, thats worked really well for Boeing, hasn't it? How backwards of Dassault, Embraer and Canadair to design and build their products in their own countries! Ditto for the big engine makers Pratt, GE, and Rolls! Not trendy there at all, closely monitoring quality every step of the way. They should really look to Boeing and its Harvard MBA leader for tips on how to manage. Gotta have those live conference calls with India at 3 AM to be on the cutting edge. No need for design engineers down on the floor to find out WTF is actually going on with production; just send an e-mail (or tens of thousands of e-mails per problem). No difficulty there.
ASman said:
"Gotta have those live conference calls with India at 3 AM to be on the cutting edge." That's beautiful. Sad. But beautiful. As for Boeing, I suspect the market has had just about enough of the current crew there. In the meantime, let's see if a US Aviation Policy comes out of DC that supports US vertical integration.
As for separating R&D/development/design, my though was that in EAC's case,a separate capital structure and investor group (and business plan) may have worked like a "carve out" or "pure play" to put increased transparency, oversight etc on the full completion of the aircraft.
It is very interesting, I think, to observe the development of the E400 which was carved out from ABQ and done in isolation from production with a development partner (in NC I believe). It seems (?) the E400 may have actually turned out to be on-spec and a better product than the 500. A lesson there?
Baron 95 said: "How can this possibly be fair to Ford and their shareholders?"
Unless that was tongue-in-cheek; Ford is still a family owned public company that does not have the Senate designing it's cars. That to me seems to be a good trade off.
To think that an aviation guy saved an auto company, but auto guys could not save an aviation company.
IIRC, EASA was on the creditor list for the BK.
Suspension of the TC is likely an administrative matter since there was no mention of any technical issues.
Yikes. That is so 1950s.
Call me a throwback - to a time when America actually made stuff, and that mattered. But I digress.
If Apple tried to build the iPod they'd be dead.
If Cisco tried to build the routers they designed they'd be dead.
An iPod is not an aircraft. Neither is a router. Aircraft aren't built in the hundreds of thousands or millions. A single month's production of iPods represents more units than all of the aircraft built in more than a century. An iPod is not expected to provide a service life of 20 to 30 years.
I can think of no reason why the design and development of a G1000 ( for instance ) couldn't be separated completely from its production - if the consequences of failure were no more severe than "the music stops coming through the ear buds". The aviation analogue to that condition comes with a body count.
Production volume is the driver for the overall feasibility of separating design from production. The only examples of high volume aircraft production - separated completely from design & development - involve command/wartime economies, where every aspect was controlled by the government paying for it.
Are you suggesting that only government can do this sort of thing efficiently?
----------------------------------
All that to the side, I was actually fishing for the punchline to my assertion that designers should be put on the production line:
"Yo, DaVinci! Put down that pencil and pick up the gun! Those rivets ain't gonna peen themselves."
DI
IIRC, EASA was on the creditor list for the BK.
You are correct. According to Docket #584, as of March 25th, the number was $413,177.79.
Suspension of the TC is likely an administrative matter...
...of a cool half-million ( by now ).
DI
Stan,
Suspension of the TC is likely an administrative ...
EASA (key word "orphan"):
"Commission Regulation (EC) 1702/2003 requires products, parts and appliances to be issued with certificates as specified in Part 21. Aircraft without a valid type certificate holder cannot comply with Subpart B of Part 21 and cannot therefore hold type certificates. The Specific Airworthiness Specification (SAS) is the replacement document."
I think the company "EAC" does not exist...
Julius
P.S.: The Boeing shares went up until approx. the first week of june and started to fall a bit.
Yes. Boeing screwed up on the 787.
We can now officially place "Six Blind Men" on the list of methods to avoid when trying to develop an airliner for fun and profit.
Would you like tusk with that?
DI
Dave I.
wow , i am so impressed ...
i wouldn't have thought to read one day the Sufism angular stone ...!
bravo
and so true !!
Julius :
yes , a administrative measure (suspension of TC)
i suppose that you know how they play it most of time ...
you play a bit with them (by "forgetting" to pay your bills) one time might be more or less ok ...
as for the second time , cash up-front or no talks ...!
i wonder if anybody dumb enough to buy this defunct thing can think of having to pay half a million (without legal interest on late payment ! what is the formula again ???? ah yes : ECB rate +0.5% per year ) before eventually get back in the line ...
very far from a simple administrative procedure ...
Asm :
Well, thats worked really well for Boeing, hasn't it? ...
yes , we are still in the same problematic ...
when short term isn't enough anymore , just make it even shorter !
Fred said...PS: My total income tax is around 1(one) % in a perfectly legal manner without
-----------------------------
And why is that news?
Question is total tax + gauging that you suffer as a consumer in the EU. 52% of tax revenues give or take depending on country come from VAT.
Care to tell us how much you paid in VAT on your R8?
Care to tell us how much you pay in Fuel taxes every week?
Care to tell us why your R8 costs a lot more in Germany and France than in the US?
Care to tell us how much you pay each year for your car tag?
Fact is over 3 years, your R8 would cost you about 2x to 2.5x more than in the US.
Anyway - whatever. To each his own. I'm tired of the transatlantic debate. So long as you are well informed (e.g. not actually thinking that healthcare is "free"), make your choices and live with it.
fred said...
the other day you claimed that USA is importing 338B$ per year ..
==================
From CHINA. Not total imports. We import a lot from Canada and Germany, and Japan, and Korea, and Brazil, you know.
chickasaw said...
To think that an aviation guy saved an auto company, but auto guys could not save an aviation company.
----------------------
Classic - very smart comment.
As to Ford being family owned, that is not "true". Ford family control a big block of voting shares, but F ownership is very pulverized. You probably own F if you have any large cap mutual funds in your 401K or investments.
The answer to your question is:
Ford was designing its own cars, raising capital, etc...and GM and Chrysler were dying and F was about to reap the benefits.
Then along comes Obama, wipes the debt of GM to $10B, gives GM $33B in gifted DIP money, enables Chrysler to offer $6,000 incentives on cars, drawing sales from F and forcing F to further discount their cars to compete.
If it were, say, Toyota US, that was being restructured by Obama, and got its debt wiped out and got $60B to compete against GM and F, everyone would be screaming bloody murder. Actually it would never happen.
Make no mistake about it.
The US Gvmt owns Chrysler and GM. They are gifting money to Chrysler and GM. The Us Gvmt is in DIRECT competition with Ford.
Simple as that.
It is so on paper, it is so in fact, and it has serious consequences for Ford, and you, as a an F shareholder.
You may think that is a good thing. But you should know that a US Gvmt-owned company (e.g. GM) is working day after day to kill a privately owned competitor - Ford.
DI said.... Production volume is the driver for the overall feasibility of separating design from production.
====================
That is an important factor, but not the only factor.
Core competencies is, IMHO, a more important factor.
It is possible, but highly unlikely, that a single company can be the best fanjet engine designer/manufacturer, the best avionics designer/manufacturer, the best fuselage designer/manufacturer, the best wing designer/manufacturer, the best airframe certification expert, etc...
In the past, when design collaboration and supply chain management tools were more primitive, the loss in performance for not being the best in each area got compensated for the efficiencies in having all the components come from a single company.
As tools for collaborative design and supply chain extension etc, become more and more effective, the penalties for not having "best in class" sub assemblies and components become more and more significant.
To the point, today, and in the near future, that it becomes impossible to be competitive unless you accept a risk/sharing, production sharing, extended supply chain model.
Maybe the 787 program was a bit too early, maybe it was poorly executed, but, as painful as it is now for BCA, it can still pay huge dividends to the company, in future design production costs and competitiveness.
In summary.... The strategy must be right AND the execution must be right for success. Don't fault BCA's strategy yet on the 787. Signs are that it is an execution problem. I'd rather have an execution problem than a strategy problem to fix.
R8
Vat = 15% (lux. reg.number)
Car tag = Nil ...
the bad point is the fuel tax , i agree , but for the tax i pay in fuel = i am granted with highways you can only dream of ...
you see it is NOT what you pay in tax , the important ...
it is what you get back for those tax ...
Like education not cash-bleeding parents, multi-trillions plans to keep some bankers (far too well paid) doing the same mistakes or tax paid to have some dick-head ordering Army to go half way across the world to make a country even worse than it was before ...!
still you haven't answered , if for you moving form N-Y to Florida save you paying federal tax = WHY are you bragging about Obama raising them ?
but your 52% tax are outdated ...
France was the European country having the highest rate in Europe ... now there is a law forbidding to pay an overall total of more than 50% !
don't worry , with the rate of spending lately , i would be very surprised if sooner than later , you wouldn't be at same level !!!
PS: i was comparing , in the post you said : i wasn't !!
who is fed-up or starting this trans-antlantic thing ?
PPS : on Chinese import , work the numbers yourself , you'll see = something doesn't work ...
i forgot :
yes , MAY BE R8 cost me more that it would cost in US ... (still a big doubt about it ...)
but i CAN use it for what it is meant : SPEED !
very different that ONLY showing off at 55Mph ... ;-)
fred,
bonjour!
very far from a simple administrative procedure ...
I think someone with EASA has to explain why he passed the TC to RiP without checking the books!
That's somehow similar to RiP's case with AL Mann, the problems with his ETIRC (aviation) teams, his employee in Lux... RiP is reliable!
Julius
Fred said:
"when short term isn't enough anymore , just make it even shorter !"
Shane: it would be a hoot to compile "the best one-liners from the Eclipse Critic Blog." This is one; there are a hundred more.
Fred, I think you once translated an old American saying into "don't ask to see horse's teeth" or something like that. Beautiful. BTW, are you Russian?
..or maybe a book like "Eclipse Critic Business Wisdom." BT and others can come up with catchier titles, but seriously, as this site winds down, what a great library of experience, advice, wisdom and humor from around the globe (I don't think we've read much from the Asians, however).
baron95,
In the past, when design collaboration and supply chain management tools were more primitive...
that is right!
I think you missed one important competence:
Produce something in time according to specs!
If the product is too late in the market, it might become superflous!
The partners who did their job in time according to spec are also somehow blocked etc.
The customer asked for a better aircraft - in time - that gives him some advantages compared to his competitors!
Julius
P.S.: Does the new Cirrus owner dislike jets or does he prefer twin jets like the fpj....
That is an important factor, but not the only factor.
Core competencies is, IMHO, a more important factor.
I will happily agree that both of those statements are true in the Real World. Which the aviation industry continues to show no symptoms of being a part of.
Maybe the 787 program was a bit too early, maybe it was poorly executed, but, as painful as it is now for BCA, it can still pay huge dividends to the company, in future design production costs and competitiveness.
Considering that Archimedes, DaVinci, Newton, Tesla, Edison, Ford, and Turing have been "down on the factory floor" for quite a while trying to get the damned thing to work - and stay in one piece while doing so - there's a chance you'll be right about this.
"Yo, Stradivarius! Put down that horsehair, and get back to the paint shop!"
DI
Fred, you seem to have a problem remembering that I've spent quite a bunch of time driving in Europe. And the roads are a nightmare of traffic and underpowered diesel cars blocking my way.
I just spent my Friday at Monticello, sharing alternating triple digit rides on an XFR and XKR with the likes of Roberto Guerrero.
Any Friday, Saturday, Sunday in the summer I can drive to a drag strip and launch all day long for $25 every two runs.
Get some education.
Julius said...I think you missed one important competence:
Produce something in time according to specs!
-----------------------
Yep. I didn't mention that, because it seems to be in short supply in aviation.
Mustang and Phenom excepted, when was the last time something was produced on time and on spec?
Looks like this blog may have an easy segue to a renewed life/purpose. AvWeb is reporting that "former Cirrus Design CEO Alan Klapmeier is making a bid to acquire the rights to manufacture and sell the Vision SF 50 single-engine jet." Might or might not be a replay of Eclipse.
Fred said...you see it is NOT what you pay in tax , the important ...
it is what you get back for those tax
========================
Exactly!!!
Couldn't Agree more!!!
Now, this (peace offering) will be a cool tax-paid plane too...
Deep Blue
Are you Russian ?
No , sir !
I am french bearing a german passport (or the other order , i have no preference !)
but i was born in Morocco ...
did my Eco. studies in N.Y. , an extensive military period in Tsahal (Israeli defense force) ...
started a doctorate in Japan (about Eco.) but dropped it when i finally understood Economy is NOT a science !
it is much too related with Human Nature and Human feelings and foolishness to be considerate as a science ...
some call it humility ... i just cannot forgive myself to have spent so much time finding it !! ;-)
(this is something anyone should consider carefully : in Eco. the longer is the word , the most meaningless it is ...i wouldn't bet my life on it , but i fear a big chunk of economists are complicating everything on the purpose (only?) to hide their lack of modesty , knowledge ... or both !)
I have been working in different spheres in Russia of post soviet times ... including some International Organizations and Govt Organizations ...
now , times has come for me to enjoy life , so i decided to put an end to my career or what is supposed to be as i have never really taken it as a job ... more a kind of passion in which i was not too bad ...
so i promised myself to be retired when i would be 48 ...
that is the reason why i am going to cross the planet oceans on a sail-boat starting next September (because of the wind called "Alizés" which make the crossing from africa to south america smoother ...)
Baron :
can you explain me HOW your link is going to make the Average JOE in US having a better life ?
for me (personal opinion) it is a complete waste of funds ...
(USA alone is spending more than all other countries of world Together in military spending ...)
in fact it is the best example of Counter-productive spending ...
why do you think USA attracts all Michougim (Hebrew word for : "really out of their heads" )like a magnet does to iron particle ?
because you are so sure of your own might that your make yourself a perfect target for all lunatics !
JUST a shame that most cannot remember a certain A.Jackson when he defeated what was the BEST army in the world at the time ...
for sure he was on your side , and others were british ...
nonetheless the lesson has been forgotten since : it is not the might of an army which make it strong ...
only the will of the men fighting in it !
as for European Highways crowded :
yes they are ... but N-Y freeways aren't any better ...
the difference : when i am in Germany , when there is not too much traffic (which happen quite frequently) i am ALLOWED to drive the car for what it is meant : Speed ... without having fears for a ticket or for being arrested ...!
Gutten tag , Julius ...
If the product is too late in the market, it might become superflous! ...
if you would have added "in the right conditions of market ..."
it would have been nearly perfect !
Quantas has canceled few orders on 787 and is trying to delay other on some XXX years ...
some Gulf-Countries are trying to do the same ...
it seems that the A380 philosophy (making air-transport a mass phenomena more than a convenience phenomena ) was a little more convincing ...
TIME will tell
fred said...
Baron : can you explain me HOW your link is going to make the Average JOE in US having a better life ?
=============================
Sure.
Keeping Joe free and alive.
If you are DEAD or not free, nothing else matters, does it?
Of course, there are people like you, who think that we are alive and free from oppression in the US and the west, "by accident". It had nothing to do with the American military power, right?
It had nothing to do with the American military power, right? ...
this is where are grossly wrong ...
or
when the solution BECOME the problem !
your military spending are in NO ways improving life inside USA ...
it is meant to "Protect" you and your safety ... but attracts all mads of world instead ...
therefor is the starting point of :
more "protection" = more mad radicalism = more protection = more radicals = etc...
until it is too much , british and many others tried before ...
it NEVER works in the long run !
as for "Oppression"
yes , it WAS ...
but not anymore !
in Fact Nato has become a useless thing ...
something trying to find a conflict to be fought for justifying its own existence ...
get it over , pal ...
nothing is meant to last forever !
fred,
bonjour!
I was only looking at the customer relationship of Airbus and Boeing!
Airbus and Boeing promise something - based on ideas and visions of engine suppliers, their own engineers - that should happen 5 or 6 years later.
This is a core competence!
The general market or financial conditions are something out of reach for the OEMs! The airliners may influence the market...
Boeings current infos about the problems with the "sides of the 787 fusalage" might quite well mirror the situation: Boeing does not understand this effect despite three weeks of investigations!
Julius
julius :
i agree !
what i had in mind :
we all are in IMAGE style of Time ...
what count at the end is what is the perception of your customers !
in the case of Boeing , if after 3 weeks of investigations they have nothing to show , they might be tempted by "Good Old BS" like Vern was in his time with his own customers ...
if Vern would have been frank from the starting-line , if he would have said after the first engine fiasco " WE are going to have to USE your deposit-money to try to last until a solution is found "
ONLY one type of customers would have stayed : The ones WILLING to commit themselves !
but that would have been TOO ETHICAL ...
this is where i believe most americans lost it ...and why i wrote "if short is not enough , make it shorter"
it is ONLY because ALL sectors are managed (directly or indirectly) by FINANCIERS ...
with them , rules are simple to the extremes :
"Screw anything or anyone to make a buck , NOW ! "
this is where they should have understood (IMO) where is the limit between a happy shares-holder and a sustainable business ...
most of times those 2 things have conflicting interests and goals !
on the "simple administrative " of EASA and Fjp ...
i agree 150% with you !
therefor what can be the best solutions for EASA staff :
1° put some orders back into the mess , make anyone willing to get EAC to pay the arrears of EAC ...
even if it fools no one : appearance would be saved ...
so they would claim "we didn't failed , they paid !)
2° no one actually ask for the lift of suspension "See no problem = No problem"
3° someone actually bid on EAC , but doesn't want to pay EAC arrears ...
they (EASA) would have to answers some "tricky" questions ...
even if they can get through , what do you think their "state of mind" is going to be ?
i would bet "mockingly painful" with details ...
so the best bet of anyone wishing to get this dead fiasco = start to pay 500.000 US$ for something which is nothing of their deeds !! ;-)
ps : why do you think it is ONLY suspended ?
and not purely revoked ?
(EAC is defunct , so Fpj cannot be in compliance of E.U. standards !)
it is speculations , but i wouldn't be surprised at all if it would be to have an opportunity to "fix" something not exactly what it was supposed to be done ...
(pay your due =eventually get the cert. ; not the opposite !!!)
bottom line, there IS a market for the 787, and Boeing is not a start up.
There was no sizeable market for the E500, they were swamped by competition that was unafraid to offer their products are reasonable prices, and eclipse was revealed to be a joke.
The business plan was a joke
Execution was likewise, except for raising money and inventing clients/order book.
Boeing has real customers.
atm
yes , absolutely ...
i am ready to bet my hat on where started the problems for Boeing ...
it is when someone from Financial-dep. tried to impress the board by saying something like :
We should ... blabla ... costs analysis ... blabla ... composite is lighter ... blabla ... less expensive on fuel ... blabla ... externalization of non-core aspect of production ... blabla will save us bigger margins ... blabla .. every airliner is going to queue to get one ... blabla ..at any price ...blabla stocks will sky-rocket !
which is actually all that was more or less good in EAC ...
yes , Boeing hasn't got the same type of problems than EAC had ...
nonetheless , it always start (IMO) by the same way : peoples who KNOW how to do their job are told what should be done by peoples who do not have a clue about ...!
an other example :
Ryanair published that they want to buy 300 Boeing or Airbus :
all the stocks and finances peoples are going frenzy ...
to get the deal , one is going to make a better offer than the other !
WRONG !
they should start by thinking " What the F***k do they want to do with so many ?"
(buy it cheap or almost free , re-sell it later for gold weight !! ;-) )
Ryanair will do the obvious. They'll flip their existing 738s as they are due for heavy checks and take delivery of the new one.
Ryanair's strategy is to buy large blocks of planes during down markets, at distressed sale prices, and they flip them when markets recover.
"Ryanair published that they want to buy 300 Boeing or Airbus :"
They are trying to stampede Boeing and Airbus into a bidding war. Both companies have indicated they are not going to play Ryanair's game anymore.
Asm :
let's hope so !
but i am quite sure all the finance dep. and all stock-holders had many stars in their eyes and $ counting in their brain ...
as for a non-biding war : wait and see , those topics are very Govt related ... unfortunately Govt are voted into power to say what we want to hear ... more rarely what we should hear ...!
Ryanair 'Strategy'
Both Airbus and Boeing are fully tuned in to Mick's maneuvers by now.
Mr. O'Leary pulled what many consider to be a masterful stroke in the aftermath of 9/11 by a) ordering/taking options on 180 B737-800, at a 'rumored' $25 million each, when 'list' was $37 million and then b) getting the American taxpayer to fund the purchase at 0% (yes, that would be zero) interest over 10 years.
Oh, and using a Euro/Dollar floating exchange rate that always protected Ryanair.
8 years later they are indeed 'flipping' those B737-800's, in many instances (it is alleged) to other Ryan family backed operations around the world.
In the meantime, those resources have been used to pummel competitors into bankruptcy and/or drive volume on new routes.
Is this wrong, or an excellent example of capitalism at work?
You decide....
Shane
Shane, BTW, what is the reputation of Ryanair in Ireland and also of O'Leary. Are they both esteemed like Southwest is in the States?
Deep Blue,
He gets a certain amount of credit for reducing air fares, specifically at our (ex) national carrier, Aer Lingus.
Downside is the utterly cavalier attitude to customer service. As a result I'm very reluctant to use the airline, especially for 'time critical' travel.
Can I explain my one position like this:-
I fly Ryanair when I have no choice.
So, pretty much exactly like SouthWest, which is hardly surprising. That's because Michael O'Leary learned the key points of running a 'low cost' airline when he visited with them in 1989.
Ryanair was started by Tony Ryan, who made and subsequently lost a large fortune in aircraft leasing in the early to mid '80s. The airline stumbled as it attempted to offer a 'business class only' service on the key Dublin London route.
Mick was sent into the company at a time when a) the Ryans were hurting due to losing out at GPA and b) the Ryans were hurting due to the loss of £10 million in Ryanair.
That's when £10 million was actually quite a substantial chunk of change....
Anyway, with typical disregard for business norms (and very little to lose) Mick ditched the 'business class only' idea, expanded the route network (notably to 'Brussels South' in Belgium) and did a series of clever deals with small airports to provide 'bases' for future expansion.
The key was high load factors and quick turnaround. One of the critical enabling technologies (which became available in the late '90s) was the web booking service, which Ryanair built in house for next to nothing.
Anyway, there are strong mutterings that Mr. O'Leary is now preparing to 'assault' transatlantic routes between Europe and North America.
Expect to pay $10, return, to an airport some distance from London, from an airport some distance from Boston.
And $250 for each use of a toilet during the flight....
You have been warned!
Shane
Shane asked...
Is this wrong, or an excellent example of capitalism at work?
========================
Must you ask? It was awesome.
And it is similar to what B6 did with Airbus and what Gol (G3) did with Boeing, except that Gol actually needed all their planes and hasn't flipped them yet.
Buy low (with other people's money at risk), use the asset, sell high. This is the purest form of smart CAPITALism.
Shane said...And $250 for each use of a toilet during the flight....
You have been warned
============================
That is trend setting. I'm 100% in favor of passengers paying for the services they use.
I travel domestically with nothing but a carry on. If some one wants to check in 2 bags (100 lbs) that burn more fuel and reduce the flights cargo revenue, they should PAY.
I don't need an airline to feed me on a 2 hr flight. I'm buying transportation not catering. If someone wants a meal, they should pay.
United lets you pay $14 on the flight and more to rows with more space. Great.
If I insist on calling someone to buy a ticket vs using the Web, I should pay.
In Europe (e.g. France) it is quite common to pay for restroom use, either a set price or being harassed by a bathroom attendant to pay. You go to a restaurant and PAY to use the restroom. You go to the Eiffel Tower and PAY to use the bathroom. On the street there are pay-bathrooms. If an airline wants to charge for restroom use, good, let them charge for it. Airliners, particularly long haul need to carry thousands of pounds in bathroom water to flush/wash/etc. That costs money - so, if someone wants to charge for it, fine. It would be harder to do in the US, but in Europe, paying for bathroom use is no big stretch.
Let there be discount carriers. Let there be biz class only carriers. Let there be full service carriers.
Let passengers vote with their wallets. There is a big chunk of the flying public that cares about fare prices above all else. So let them be served.
Shane,
I would suggest deletion of Baron's post on Isreal.
This nonsense is getting out of hand
"United lets you pay $14 on the flight and more to rows with more space. Great."
An excretable practice by an excretable airline. I remember when "business class" was for people who actually paid a non-discounted coach ticket, typically the flyer who had to fly on short notice. That practice lasted about 15 minutes. Now you have to pay extra on United just to get reasonable legroom in coach. I really don't think the majority of coach class could be evacuated in an emergency because the seats are jammed so close together. The FAA should really put a stop to it but there are too many Sabatinis left there to actually do anything absent a disaster.
Stan,
I agree, so I've deleted it.
Shane
Someone should explain to Baron the concept of "enlightened self interest" instead of just "self interest".
Perhaps the charge for life jackets on the way down the shoot as well?
I know of at least one miserly sole who would wear depends on the flight just to avoid having to pay Baron's LOO-FEE... and I think we should bake sure he's squished in to the seat right next to Baron, with the arm rest up, of course.
"Shane said...And $250 for each use of a toilet during the flight....
You have been warned"
Airlines, the US Post Office, Amtrak, and perhaps many other businesses need to set prices at a level that covers their costs and profit requirements. Then let the public vote with their feet. I resent subsidizing the guy who is paying 1/10 for a ticket of what I paid. To me, it makes little sense to screw around with $14 seat premiums, $7 sandwiches, etc. These annoy and alienate more than anything else. OTOH, for significant incremental amenities which cost some real dollars to provide, unbundle these so that those who want them pay for them and those who dont, dont.
baron95,
Airliners, particularly long haul need to carry thousands of pounds in bathroom water to flush/wash/etc. That costs money - so, if someone wants to charge for it, fine. It would be harder to do in the US, but in Europe, paying for bathroom use is no big stretch.
it's only about attracting pax with "low fare" of 20€ that ends up in 100€.
Desk staff will be reduced by data entry & printer devices (see bording cards for Australian domestic flights) - but most pax have to queue twice: for the bording card and for the baggage.
BTW: "restroom" in a/cs are only acceptable in case of emergencies
- and then the airliners want to misuse their "advantage"?
Julius
P.S.: Money (coins, notes) is expensive - one has to count it, to carry it, to put it into a save etc.. On buses, in company cafeterias, etc. one pays with money cards it's less expensive!
"Perhaps the charge for life jackets on the way down the shoot as well?"
And extra to actually get in the life raft!
Choice People. The more the better.
You are free to buy first class, business class, full service + extra amenities, full service plain, discount + amenities, discount plain.
Make your choice with your wallet.
Why do you feel the need to reduce some of the above choices for others.
Is it better for a person of modest means to be able to find a $50 round trip ticket to visit a sick child or parent out of state, with no meals, no bags, web reservation, $3 bathroom fee, or for that person to be unable to travel, because the cheapest ticket allowed (by regulation or cartelization) is $150 and beyond his/her means?
It never ceases to amaze me how some people want to dictate how others "should" spend their money.
Same for Eclipse. If some one chooses to gamble and put a deposit on a 6,000lbs jet, that is their problem. If they think that is all the avionics, payload and range they need, that is that. They are paying with their money.
Choice is only an issue for the cartelized, unionized, dinosaurs with excessive fixed costs. They simply would rather die than have to compete.
Right on Baron! Let's not forget the fee to use the fresh air vent! $5 per flight should cover it. Also charge for the reading light. Another $5 if used. The airlines are selling seats but nobody mentioned seat CUSHIONS did they? $15 per flight; fat folks pay double. I'm sure the airlines could get a prohibition similar to alcohol: "FAA regulations prohibit passengers from bringing their own seat cushions on board". And then there is actual use of the overhead bins. $10 per item to start with. In addition to the fuel surcharge there could be a "heating" and "cooling" surcharge - or usually both in the summertime! No end to it!
"It never ceases to amaze me how some people want to dictate how others "should" spend their money."
It never ceases to amaze me how some people want to dictate how they spend MY money!
ASman,
I sincerely think they should chage for carry-on luggage. A small bag weighing less than 8 lbs plus a jacket is the limit. The process of passengers dragging their crap on the plane and trying to saussage it into the bin is a huge waste of time. Creates frustration for everyone trying to board, and often has the last handful of boarders opening and closing bins all around the plane, finally stuffing their crap ruining someone jacket 40 rows away.
I would venture to say that boarding and de-planing takes twice as long as it would, if carry-ons were limited in size and weight.
Everything should be packed and stowed.
Baron,
Are you saying people with modest means travel without baggage, and never have to use the washroom?
This is funny.
I would venture to say that if enough people traveled without paying a baggage fee (no bags), there will eventually be a no baggage fee. Enough people fly without paying the toilet fee, and there will be a toilet surcharge.
Your theory on how this works, is funny.
Well since the airlines have totally abandoned any concept of hospitality or grace or even civilized behavior I say charge everyone for everything! In a similar vein the head of the Hampton Inns announced that there will be no more free breakfasts or afternoon cookies! "The dude who had two egg thingys in the morning was being subsidized by the guy who had only one egg thingy, and the guy who had only orange juice was subsidizing both of them. It's charge for everything from now on! Want a blankie on your bed? That will be $10 extra.
ASMan,
It just shows a misunderstanding of how the service is priced.
The exact same flight, and the exact same seat is priced differently for two differnt types of clients, anyways. It used to be, that without the premium client, there was nothing to offer the cut rate client. All the profits came from 17% of the airlines clients.
The premium clients have gone, and now, the only way to skin the price is to do it by "features".
Its OK if Baron wants the airlines to be the Greyhound bus service... because that is what is becoming of them.
Anyone who really needs to go somewhere, and needs to make good use of their time flies private. This is a strong trend.
For everyone else, there's the airlines. In the interum, you'll pay for seat cushions and toilets. Eventually, it will be just like Greyhound.
A very long time ago, we had a “pastor”, back in Burbank, California, that would sometimes use some excellent descriptions of folks, that at the times, seemed somewhat far away (his two youngest boys, “twins”, were excellent athletes . . . one became “first string center” for Stanford, and never to my knowledge backed off from a real challenge . . . he was much too short to be “center”, but that never stopped him):
One expression was “Hollow-chested-chocolate-fingered-Rah-Rah-boys” . . . and the other was describing the “self-centered” folks of the time as “Get all I can, and Can all I get!”
So, today, in these very discussions, we have those that will “get all they can, and ‘can’ all they get” . . . and those that are afraid to take on the issues . . . the hollow-chested-chocolate-fingered-“rah-rah” boys . . . often watching the action, cheering on the others (if forced, and put on the spot) but seldom risking getting hurt.
Once at a "camp", I repeated the last comment to the pastor . . . and he came "un-glued" . . . Have you ever seen your "respected and dignified pastor" snort chocolate milkshake through his nose? . . . I wish I had a movie of it! And could that man laugh! They must have heard him throughout the San Bernardino Mountains from Arrowhead to Big Bear! . . . and maybe all the way down to Redlands.
The gadfly watches . . . wonders . . . but is seldom amused!
gadfly
(Recent comments border on the pathetic!)
I guess I am a complete moron... did not get even an ounce of analogy or relevance out of your post, my kind friend, Gadfly...
Taximan
That's OK . . . to whom it was meant, they'll get the point. Or maybe not! I'm no longer surprised at anything.
gadfly
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