Wednesday, April 22, 2009

Well well well...

Normally I'd expect this sort of stuff to arrive on a 'Tuesday', but this time it's true. The legal actions around Eclipse Aviation were always going to be fascinating, but even I'm surprised at this. Read on, and, well, weep, with either tears of laughter or sorrow depending on your point of view.

Oh, and thanks to ColdWetMackeralofReality, who is the actual author of the piece.

Shane


The Nuclear Option

A Motion to Compel under Title 11, Chapter 3, Subchapter IV, Sec 365 of the bankruptcy law has been filed to force the Eclipse Bankruptcy Trustee to release all ground and airborne software related to Avio and other embedded software (essentially the most valuable intellectual property related to the TC) directly to the owners.

This move has been some time in the making and yes, yours truly played a small part. I have been working with several owners for the past several months examining real-world solutions to the various problems faced by the owner community and of all the things accomplished, this and a recent meeting of the minds are the highlights that I believe will soon have a profound impact on the future of this saga. Of course, I want to remind everyone I am not a lawyer, this is my understanding of the legal issue from having participated at arm’s length.

Several weeks ago a demand letter was sent to the Trustee quoting the above section of law and demanding that the Trustee release all IP related to Avio and the ACS as required under current BK law. Thanks to the rise of software and the ever increasing pervasive nature of ‘embedded’ software in the items we use every day, Congress has made significant changes to the BK law with respect to license rights and proprietary software.

Essentially, the Trustee failed to act on (or even acknowledge) the demand letter in a timely manner so the motion to compel has been filed directly with the BK court to compel release of what amounts to all software related to Avio and other embedded software, directly to the owners. According to the law, if the trustee fails to comply the owners will essentially be able to get the software by any means (from other owners or experienced service providers for example).

This motion, if granted, is the divorce I have been advocating for months now, that separates the owners from needing to compete in the cash incineration contest to purchase the IP and just as importantly, it frees capable third parties to actively engage in the development and certification of fixes for the known and suspected issues without being held hostage by a hostile IP owner. If it plays out as expected, the owners will no longer have to fear being a captive market, they will own the critical IP, and best of all they will not have had to fork over tens of millions to get it.

Background - When Eclipse sold the aircraft they issued a ‘a personal, non-exclusive, perpetual and non-transferable (except in connection with a permitted transfer or sale of the subject aircraft) license to use any computer software or other intellectual property incorporated in the aircraft that is not the subject of a separate license agreement between Eclipse and Purchasers or the owner of such intellectual property ("Aircraft Intellectual Property") – quoted from Aircraft Purchase Agreement. Eclipse further committed to release this and related IP with their IOU’s when delivering incomplete aircraft (Post Delivery Commitment).

The executed Purchase Agreements and Post Delivery Commitments, and the rights they convey upon the purchaser, are apparently not erased by the BK proceedings, therefore all current owners will have the same rights if the motion is upheld by the BK court.

To that end, I have been developing an updated proposal that retains the possibility of moving the PW-610’s to an alternate airframe (the Excel Jet SportJet-610 previously discussed), while also defining four regional specialist centers with extensive Eclipse specific experience, training and support equipment, spares, and AOG Tiger Teams. Current thinking based on fleet distribution is East Coast, Midwest, Southeast, and West.

This will be enhanced with an expanded network of existing facilities for North America (US, Canada and Mexico - likely 2 Heavy Mod facilities, and perhaps 2 dozen FBO/light maintenance facilities) as well as an existing network for outside North America (dozen or so facilities in Europe, Asia and the Middle East). I have also been in contact with a training provider that has FAA approval for all necessary training (initial type rating, recurrent, etc.), as well as insurers. This will also include working with the existing suppliers/vendors where possible but also in qualifying alternate vendors where PMA is not practical or possible given the original supplier/vendor.

Expect to see a focus on AOG and low-hanging fruit almost immediately (tires and brakes, actuators) – including an effort to end the interference with PMA activities that is currently ongoing from at least one of the bidding parties (we have heard from multiple sources that someone is actively working to prevent willing and interested vendors from seeking PMA to provide parts right now to customers who need them).

As I have mentioned on other occasions, my belief based on discussions with owners and maintainers is that many of the issues observed are more quality escapes than design issues, therefore the service and support entity I envision would take on the development and certification of comprehensive fixes, modifications and upgrades. This would tackle the design and certification efforts including development of what would in essence be a ‘delivery spec’ or ‘completion’ STC and the much needed Service Life Extension Program. This also allows for the development of an updated ‘hot-items’ inspection to identify known quality/assembly/rigging issues that can be issued as a Service Information Letter or other mechanism, to direct attention at known areas before they become widespread problems and potentially lead to FAA action.

At this point, the best outcome is for a bifurcated or two-party solution that allows one party to acquire the assets and retain rights to future production, with a second party taking on the support of the currently fielded fleet. If these two parties work together obviously prices for parts can come down over time but any potential bidder must know and understand that alternatives will exist for both quality of service as well as parts pricing for the current owners.

This approach allows the owner community to focus their attention and their dollars on completing, supporting , and most importantly safely enjoying their own aircraft without getting tied up in the old cliché about how to make a small fortune in aviation.

Of similar importance is that the recent high-level meeting of the minds I mentioned, combined with the development re: the IP may result in far more elegant fixes for many of the current series of band-aid fixes applied to the various aircraft. Assuming that the fixes developed in support of the currently flying planes are of interest, they can potentially be sold or licensed to the party seeking the TC allowing the owners to recover some of the costs related to the development and certification of any fixes.

My team and I have already identified several potential partners for the regional specialist centers and we are ready to begin serious talks with currently identified domestic and international service partners, current and potential vendors, as well as key former Eclipse employees and managers whom we have been in contact with if we receive the support of enough of the owner community.

As always, I can be reached at ColdWetMack@gmail.com.

69 comments:

Shane Price said...

Two items.

1. Despite my 'lawyers making money' remark, I've nothing against them. My late father spent his working life in the law, one of my siblings is practicing now, and my eldest is studying to be one.

2. For TurboProp. I'm promised a photo later today. Drop me a line (usual address) and I'll email you back when I get it.

Shane

Dave said...

Is going nuclear taking a knife to a gunfight? What I mean by that is that do we really know what Eclipse actually owns versus what Eclipse licenses? Even if you get Eclipse to release all the software IP that they own, it doesn't mean that you will have all the software that you need. With Eclipse having such a tangled web, it is hard to know what you would be buying at auction or alternatively what would be released by the courts.

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

Good point Dave, but I think already part of the overall strategery.

Why would any vendor not license SW direct to the install base right now vs. waiting until next year or later to deal with any 'newco' and an as-yet undetermined approach to support for the flying (some of them) fleet?

This is, IMO, the strongest potential development in favor of the owners to-date re: the IP itself and their rights to it.

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

Playing off of the above comment, the importance of the need for alternatives in this saga simply cannot be overstated and I think it is time for a review.

The fundamental challenge as I see it right now is that 5 months and several million dollars have been wasted across the various efforts in an attempt to acquire the assets since CH-11 was announced. I say wasted because in this same time an independent service and support entity could have been formed, PMA’s could have been earned, STC’s could have been developed – parts planes could have been purchased from distressed owners, AOG planes could have been fixed and flying by now, and the costs would have been essentially the same.

At the beginning of March I put forward a plan with the able assistance and participation of Bob Bornhofen at Excel-Jet that sought to provide a series of workable alternatives for the owner community at large; from the owners who want out, to the owners who want to continue flying the plane. Since that time, over a million dollars has been spent by the two primary groups within the owner’s community, almost exclusively with lawyers and consultants. We have seen dueling press releases and announcements that have served only to increase the perceived value of the IP and the likely costs of acquiring those assets.

With the ‘nuclear’ motion recently filed that seeks to force the Trustee to release much of the important IP directly to the owners themselves, we can now see that much of that time and money was very likely wasted – this is of course hindsight, and we all know that it happens.

Now comes the time for some difficult introspection and decision making on the part of the owners with the benefit of the hindsight I mentioned above and an eye towards the future.

Current information suggests that 50% of the fleet is not flying either because they are AOG or out of fear of becoming AOG.

Resale values have plummeted with low-time NG equipped aircraft being sold for 60% below the latest sales price from EAC. Public offers below half a million are commonplace.

One of the bidding parties seeking to restart production is reportedly actively interfering with vendors seeking PMA certifications to support the currently suffering owners.

Objections and claims to the CH-7 proceeding have until mid August to file, that is four months from now – it is unlikely that there will be an auction before that time, and it is similarly unlikely that the court will be moved to force a sale or accept a bid before that time. This means that nothing new will happen for perhaps another four months.

Once that does happen though, someone then has to wade through all the materials and information they ‘win’ and begin to make sense of it all and then put a plan together. Then vendors have to be brought back online, credit agreements have to be negotiated, piece part production lines have to be restarted at vendors and Eclipse, inventories have to be planned and released, staff must be found, hired, relocated. A relationship has to be established with FAA and EASA. Documentation has to be updated, fixes and repairs have to be developed and certified.

What this means is that it will be as late as the end of 2009 before any currently AOG aircraft can expect needed parts or service if they rely on a ‘newco’ approach. And that in itself may be optimistic. It will cost no less than $10M if pursued using the other plans as described – this after spending $25-40M to buy the assets in what is shaping up to be a potentially brutal multi-party bidding war.

What if there were an alternative to that? What if the work of supporting the fleet could begin tomorrow, independent of the assets, independent of the IP, independent of the plans to restart production? What if parties could have already made progress re: PMA’s, credit terms, support equipment, etc?

Well that can happen, and it is precisely why I have opposed the purchase of the assets/IP, it is why I supported the development of the current motion to compel, and it is why I have now invested two man-months into research and development of this plan. It is why I flew out to Colorado Springs to meet with Bob Bornhofen at Excel-Jet, it is why I have reached out to the EOG and the individual owners themselves.

We could already be two months into establishing a co-op or owner-owned service and support entity by now, we could already be two months closer to PMA’s by now, we could already be two months closer to STC’s by now. All for the same million-plus spent so far on letters, press releases, announcements and other activities.

An alternate airframe can be available in 12 months, for about $2M in development and tooling costs, including a flying demonstrator. Excel-Jet will honor $80K of any lost Eclipse deposit towards a Sport-Jet II, or depositors might purchase an Eclipse 500 from a distressed owner and then move to the PW-610F powered Sport-Jet 610 design, ending up with largely the same capabilities they originally sought for a net cost of roughly $1M by selling the airframe sans engines into a spares pool. They could have a Sport-Jet 610 or Sport-Jet II as many as 18 to 24 months before any ‘newco’ can have new EA-500’s rolling off the line.

A service and support entity requires some heavy consulting initially to establish the plans/vision, establish relationships with domestic and international service partners, develop or rekindle vendor relationships, my put is a team of 12-15 engineers plus 4 or 5 admin and other specialists to prioritize and initiate the needed fixes. This represents roughly $5M per year with overhead and G&A expenses. Add in 8-10 planes for spares at an estimated $500K each.

Both program elements together require $10-12M over the next 12 months – with participation from the majority of domestic owners (say 150), that is less than $7K per month per participant in a pay-as-you-go approach. Experienced maintenance is available right away, spares are available almost immediately, fixes begin to flow from the service and support entity in as little as 3 months, and the alternate airframe flies within 12 months.

Ongoing engineering support paid for by the hour (assuming 150 owners and an average of 200 hrs per year) amounts to roughly $166/per hour – using an annual fee-based approach it is a little over $33K per year ($2.7K/ mo) exclusive of parts and labor.

The service and support entity would develop a ‘completion spec’ STC independent of the TC and other IP, completing the divorce of the owners from any would-be hostage takers intent on bleeding them dry to restart production, and defining for the first time a true ‘delivery spec’.

The question before everyone now is this is - shall we wait another 5 months? Shall we spend another million or two without tangible results? Or shall we get down to the business of supporting the fleet, right now?

The inescapable fact is this, every day that goes by without a consolidated and coordinated effort to support the fleet, is another day longer planes will be AOG, another day longer where the needed experienced engineers and other talent drift to the four winds as they find work elsewhere, another day longer the information needed goes undiscovered or undeveloped.

Beyond questions about my motives as a well-known critic and some questions about the offering from Excel-Jet, few criticisms have come up about the substance of what my plan represents. Comments from critic and die-hard alike appreciate the real-world, workable nature of what I have proposed and the fact is that it is the only plan that addresses the vast majority of needs for all of the sub-groups within the owner community.

While the others were spending time and money developing press releases, giving interviews, developing plans to bring the plane back into production, and proposing organizational structures, Bob and I have invested what approaches $100K now of our own money and time developing and refining the approach we are proposing. There are people ready to work with us to begin this process now, to provide parts now, to offer all levels of maintenance now, to provide engineering support now, to provide FAA approved training now, and offering insurance now. These people simply need to see acceptance from the owners of what they themselves see as the most mature and achievable plan currently on the table.

As an owner-funded/owner-owned operation, the needs of the owners will be the priority, tempered and guided with mature, experienced leadership. If we are selected to do this, I pledge responsiveness and open, transparent communication – as has always been the case, there will be no doubt about what I believe or what I am saying.

Now is the time to move forward. I urge the owners to contact the EOG leadership and let them know if you are interested in this approach so that we can begin now to do what needs to be done.

If you have other suggestions or would like to learn more feel free to contact me ColdWetMack@gmail.com

Tail.Dragger said...

Based on what I've read in the post, I'm seeing a fundamental lack of understanding with regards to the software IP and FAA certification.

According to the post, the motion is compelling the release of just the software to the owners.

Here's the problem. Okay you get a CD ROM with all the source code and DO-178B documentation. Great now what are you going to do with it?

Software is not certified independently from the hardware platform that it runs on. So unless you also have the IP for the hardware and the rights to re-certify the system after making a software change you're SOL.

And this isn't even addressing the incredible cost involved for even the simplest of changes.

Nor can I see the secured creditors agreeing to this motion. Their only hope of recovering a couple pennies on the dollar is to sell the IP to the highest bidder.

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

TD, your concern is well placed but when you consider the needs for flight critical SW, the FAA requirements for availability of safety of flight information, and the nature of the BK law as it relates to licensing, I beleive a very strong case can be made in relation to source code, change history, compilation tools, etc.

Obviously a simple CD in and of itself would be inadequate, but this motion is the starting point.

By extension of the BK law, I believe it can be argued that 23.1309, 23.1311, AC20-115B,Order 8110.49, DO-178B and other guidance essentially require the source code and all supporting elements also be released in order to satisfy the intent of the law.

Believe me, the brains behind this are examining all necessary information and if the motion is argued I expect all of these issues as well as the opposition most expect to certainly come up.

The real question is will the note holders and possibly some vendors object? Perhaps, but they will be doing so at the risk of alienating the only CURRENT users of the product, that is, the owners.

Why risk further damaging the brand and by extension the value of their assets by taking a shortsighted and overly hostile approach?

Al Mann is a smart guy, as are many of the vendors (excluding perhaps their choice of partners although even that can be excused by reason of Vern's undeniable effectiveness as advocate for the plan) - this is the most direct and I think shortest term path to support and therefore success for all involved.

By allowing the current owners and an appropriately staffed and experienced support entity to come in and BEGIN the task of continued airworthiness and completion of the aircraft, the note holders (Mann) and the vendors have the best shot at rehabilitating the brand and eventually getting something for their investment.

If they stab the owners in the back, the brand is dead.

Thanks for a thoughtful comment!

Kathy said...

The entire program is a loser. Way back when the money trees in ABQ were green and ripe the engineering coordination required among various parties to change even the tiniest bit was ridiculous. This was when the company was intact.

How in the hell are a bunch of aircraft owners and engineers (not even original EAC engineers, mind you) going to come on scene and upgrade and support the fleet. All of the good techs are gone. They were the ones that knew what they were doing. I can say for a fact that most techs that are still interested are interested ONLY because it's the only aircraft they have any knowledge of. Most are 12 weekers that obtained their FAA creds during the time that EAC was open but not doing anything.

Just let this thing die. How eager are owners, TRULY, to keep these pos jets flying. The only folks trying to 'save the jet' are in it for their own gain. This is disgraceful.

airtaximan said...

Kathy..

Well, the truth hurts, son;t it?

Well said

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

The profit motive and a love of aviation and flying are disgraceful? What about the desire to complete the jets and provide an opportunity for safe and effective use of them?

These things are like Mom, God and Apple Pie.

The warning signs have already been very clearly demonstrated in the failure of EAC and EAC 2.0, if someone has a concern or a question they can ask, nobody will be forced to participate - I think we are dealing with a more cautious and suspicious customer base - one who will soon realize that it may well be they who really hold all the cards.

Kathy said...

My point is that changes would take forever even with all the pieces in place and a huge budget.

At least 30% of the AMM needs re-written.

How do you PMA parts that aren't made in the US and have no EASA either? Sure STC this and that. What of the undertaking to STC an entire suite of flight control actuators?

Is P&WC interested in the altitude reduction AD?

Is Nordam or anyone else seriously interested in the windshield issue? Icing certification took place at a time when everything was really being rushed along. It is minimum. How many pilots actually want to enter the white with their family on board, much less pay who knows how much for the "legal" ability to take such a risk?

Nothing wrong with the love of aviation. Nothing wrong with profit.

There is ABSOLUTELY something wrong with the way this mess is unfolding!

This is but the tip of the iceberg especially when you actually consider the monumental task of simply changing a software parameter.

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

Much better Kathy, thanks for the clarification.

I can only say that these issues, and others, are part of the overall calculus - you bring up very good points and I appreciate the specificity.

bill e. goat said...

Argoth and WT (and everyone else!),
Thanks for indulging my tangents
Caution: More to come !!!

I've been off-line for a few days, having fun with my local friends at the IRS ("Hey, We're here to help too !!" Actually, they are pretty helpful if one isn't defensive, my experience- both ways- anyway).

And of course, I have been busy for the last several days preparing for today's Earth Day gala.

But now I'm back and trying to get caught up with the equally poluted mess that was EAC.

The topic of the day is CWMOR's offer to buy IP of EAC.

I think this is wrong for the ExcelJet program-

1) For the ExcelJet- I think pursuing PWC-610's is needless headache- I'd get used motors from a Citation, with built-in FADEC's. Sure they're a bit heavier and burn more fuel, but it saves messing around trying to reverse engineer or forward-engineer, the control laws. And avoids the difficulty of EMI'ing an electrical harness that runs from the engine to a FADEC inside a composite fuselage.

Or maybe buy new motors from Williams, possibly morph the ExcelJet into a SEJ flavor- I think the typical operators would be happy with that, and it would save money on engines, and give better fuel economy. (I think).

2) For EAC- this would be the death bell. The best thing for the owners to do is park their airplanes in a corner, throw a tarp over it, and uncover them in two years. After waiting for years to get their planes, I think they all can stand to do this. The best overall thing for them, is a healthy factory building new EA500's, and supporting old ones.

For EAC to "make a go of it" is for a big company to buy the assets, and be able to afford to lose $50M/year (500 employees x $100K/year) for 2 or 3 years until things are up and going. Figure the assets will go for $50M*, that means somebody (big) is going to have to be prepared to sink $200M in EAC. The only way that a big outfit will do that, is if there is value there. Removing the IP from EAC ownership dilutes that value.

An alternative would be for PWC to license the FADEC control laws to "newco" in a couple of years, and "newco" to gut the airplane and put in Garmin (or Chelton, etc). But I think that is the tipping point- I doubt if anyone would buy EAC with that built in challenge.

A dead EAC factory cuts resale value by 30-40%, I'd say. Fears of getting "gigged" by "newco" I think are unfounded- they might try, that's why I'd leave the tarp over your EA-500 until all the hubbub is over with, and stable management has been established.

I fear if IP is removed from EAC, it just starts the string of different owners every 12-18 months, until it grinds to a stop with even more non-standardization in the field, with every iteration of "newco" building a few dozen this's and that's.

3) That said, CWMOR's offer of engineering support for $167 per flight hour is cheap- a real bargain. For those who must fly their EA500 right now, it's the way to go. But I still think the best option is to park 'em and wait for a couple of years for the economy to improve, and somebody like Piper or Honda or Toyota to buy 'em.

CWMOR, good luck with servicing EA500's, and with Exceljet with whatever motor(s) come along- I think it has a lot of potential, and I hate to see it's vitality sapped by predicating it's success on used EA500 engines.

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

BEG,

It is my belief that Bob and Excel-Jet will be successful regardless of whether or not Eclipse owners elect the SJ-610. Specifically, I believe the JT15=D powered SEJ Sport-Jet II will be a successful design in and of itself.

To clarify, I have zero interest in purchasing the IP and would encourage the EOG to save their sheckles for the fixes and fuel.

On the surface, this new motion in the court, taken in conjunction with my proposal would seem to be in opposition or conflict to both the EOG plan as well as the interests of the bond holders but it is not true.

The owners don't need to make a small fortune in aviation, they need a safe, reliable plane, or for resale value to recover to the point they can get out of the plane.

The bond-holders may or may not care about the longevity of the brand itself, but their interests in it are directly tied to how it is valued and that is influenced by the appearance (if any) of the long term prospects for the assets.

From my perspective, the interests of the owners and of the bond-holders are not only served but enhanced by this recent development.

As I have said before, even if the EOG were to be successful in winning an auction for the assets, they still need to invest in the completion of the plane, development of the fixes, parts and labor, etc. If the auction takes $30 of perhaps $35M raised, they will be $5M short in yr 1 and still have no upgrades, no parts, etc.

What better use of a portion of that money than to define and execute needed fixes, get parts, and get the fleet to a complete, safe and reliable status?

Furthermore, anyone with an interest in eventual production of the type will only have hope if the existing sircraft are able to overcome the current issues, and potentially see some more elegant solutions - without success in regard to the existing fleet, there is no future.

Thanks all for the comments so far.

bill e. goat said...

As promised/threatened...
(And since it really IS "Earth Day")...

Last night (Tuesday, April 21) PBS ran two good shows,

Car of the Futurewith "Click and Clack" the NPR radio guys with the hilarious (and occasionally informative, but more entertainment than education- but hey, it really IS entertaining- they are the #1 weekend program on NPR !!)

-and-

Poisoned Wateron PBS's "Frontline" program- it highlighted the water pollution from mostly industrial farming, in the Chesapeake Bay and Puget Sound. Very informative. PPW and EAW host. (Pulitzer Prize Winner AND Emmy Award Winner).
-----------------------------------

What's this Earth Day stuff?

I -vaguely (er, like most things anymore) remember when it started- 1970, with concerns about "global cooling (!?!) and population growth.

I don't remember what the deal was with global cooling back then- but concerns over population growth have intensified- in the USA, I kept wondering why all these new houses and freeways were being built- I was stunned when I heard the population had reached 300M. The USA has (almost) the highest population growth of any developed nation.

I'll leave it to the reader to evaluate the link between population growth and poverty. (Dear readers, I think you may rejoice that I have finally found a topic which is beyond my patience to indulge in !!!)

The theory goes, rapid population growth causes poverty. Amongst developed nations of significant size, only a few have population rates which exceed the USA:

Israel 1.67
Australia 1.20
Luxembourg 1.17
Ireland 1.12
USA 0.98

And, looking at where you would want to live, versus where you wouldn't want to live, there is a STRONG correlation...

USA population:
1900 = 76094000
1970 = 205052174
(1.43% average annual increase)

2008 = 304059724
(1.04% by my calculations, since 1970).

US Population 1900-1998US Population 2000-2008CIA population growth comparisons

Kathy said...

CWMOR, My rant wasn't specifically aimed at you, you just kind of got in the way of the bullet. Does someone need to step up with full function service capability? You bet. Does your plan sound good? Absolutely.

Unfortunately many mechanics are working the plane with AMMs that are 2,3 or even more revs old (not that it functionally matters). Get a Fed Official that notices though and forget it. Then again, the Feds probably don't know either. How would they? It's a free for all with this thing right now.

How many planes are flying around with "borrowed parts"?

IMO the good safety record of the plane can be attributed at least in part to owners or pilots getting nasty-grams from big brother when DSU data showed an unstabilized approach or any other out of the ordinary maneuvers. Big brother is dead.

The IP value IS deteriorating as you mention. Many more vendors are submitting for PMA where possible. There is a website peakaeroparts.com that links to DSU data download capability. If this can be done graphically then a big part of the ADAS (at least the software) has escaped. If they do have that capability then they possess the most powerful troubleshooting tool available to the EA500. What about the elusive AMC that they have? It has fled the coop as well. Is the AMC SW up to date? If they have event monitoring capability that's just as powerful a tool as the ADAS. We can assume that anyone maintaining the jets on a small scale has the best interests in mind. Especially if their ticket # ends up in the logbook. We can only hope.

These are the murky waters that can spark the seemingly innocent although insidious chain of events that lead to incidents. An incident without injury to life is obviously preferred if at all. BUT the maintainer could face odd charges these days. In that vein I'm all in with CWMOR.

On the other hand the prospect of just parking it can be prudent to the pilot that has persistent CAS messages that aren't getting any better. The pilot that knows there is a problem but trudges on since he knows he can't get the part. Even the pilot with a perfect plane that nervously flies even after a thorough preflight but can't enjoy it since he/she is so worried about something breaking. What good is that?

I know for a fact that most flying examples of the jet are actually in quite good condition. Some exceptionally good. There ARE others though.

Even if a maintainer has the latest rev of everything, if the documentation is still flawed, and open to interpretation by different A&Ps, IAs and Fed personnel who's at risk? Everyone aboard the aircraft first! Then it trickles down quickly.

The latest AMM rev still requires a large amount of EAC tooling to perform many seemingly mundane tasks. Tasks, however that are very common to the type. The AMM was written with IP in mind.

Maintainers, does your insurance cover legal fees? Check on that.

This is the point at which as BEG mentions, IF IN DOUBT PARK IT! And please tie it down too ;) There were some very nice AC covers available maybe you can find one. Go out and start the engines and cycle the electrics twice a month but if you have an issue don't fly.

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

Fantastic post Kathy - excellent info.

No worries about the rant BTW - we've all done it. In fact, there are no doubt some folks out there who think I've not only used my share of rants, but several others as well.

Again, great post.

Kathy said...

BEG are you posting on the right blog? Quite tangential just as can be described the focus of the greed groups on raising money instead of using the time since CH7 to actually make the plane safer and cheaper to fly. CWMOR, no I don't consider you a greed group. What the heck is BEG talking about though?

Kathy said...

OK BEG I see what your talking about now! Threw this old lady for a loop after your previous posts. Please take no offense.

Kathy

bill e. goat said...

Hi CWMOR,
"If it plays out as expected, the owners will no longer have to fear being a captive market, they will own the critical IP"Hmmm. I have the feeling this is like giving children a box of matches.

"As I have said before, even if the EOG were to be successful in winning an auction for the assets..."Yikes !! I think this would be like giving children a box of matches- and a can of gasoline !!

This really is a "pickle" (conundrum). I -believe- PWC has the licensing rights to the engine control laws (? If I were them, I'd sure want to control them anyway). If so, then maybe a FADEC hardware supplier (or PWC themselves) can cook up a FADEC. (I think this was discussed a few weeks ago, and CWMOR mentioned it was being looked at). So far, so good.

Then, what is left, is gutting the avionics, and putting in Garmin or whoever. And flying the airplane on an experiemental ticket. This also was discussed several times, and I think the blog concensus was- the FAA won't let it happen.

Or- at least- never HAS let it happen in the past (as far as I know- anyone??).

I think we are now at a great battlefield (Okay, maybe not THE great battlefield), where with a highly integrated avionics suite- it is no longer practical for such an aircraft TC to be "taken over" by an independent concern. (At least, not an aircraft with a highly integrated proprietary -and defunct- avionics suite. There is probably a substantial lesson here).

With such and such many months of factory closure, it just might not be practical for humpty-dumpty (Avio) to be put back together again- and the only practical solution is for either the entire fleet to be grounded until retrofitted- and certificated- with Garmin-ish avionics (some years and $XXM), or operated as experimental.

It will be interesting to see how events unfold.

bill e. goat said...

kathy,
"What the heck is BEG talking about though?"Well said!!
(-and a very restrained understatement !!)

"I see what your talking about now!"Uh-oh, now I'm REALLY in trouble !!
.)

As CWMOR mentions, I've enjoyed your posts too.

Kathy said...

I'm sorry but I had to bring up part of the last thread:

"We will spend the next two years reducing the E500 manufacturing costs by working with the suppliers and reducing labor hours. We have studied the E500 production costs in the Eclipse data room and believe our cost targets are achievable. We have also had positive discussions with many of the key suppliers, including Pratt & Whitney Canada. These suppliers have agreed to work with us to support our effort to make future production of the aircraft profitable."

Sorry Sir but just what is the "Eclipse data room"? Are there many flashing buttons and 90" flat screens showcasing all the vendor inventory and availability status? I think not.

P&WC will and has supported the 610 without ANY input from you Sir.

Sir, you have NOT had the talks with vendors that you claim. If you did they wouldn't presently be submitting PMA docs to the FAA.

Sir, you have an outstanding fabrication organization with tremendous capability.

Why would you want to enter this fray?

bill e. goat said...

(note -for those who have a hard time keeping up- like me! :)
-Kathy is referring to the previous (April 16) headline post (Another Offer on the Table), in which Shane relays a letter from
Phil (Harlow Air) Friedman CEO, New Eclipse Acquisition LLC

Kathy said...

Thanks for the clarification BEG. I'm not quite sure it was entirely necessary with the context of the past few comments being quite clear, but thank you Sir.

Kathy said...

Fred and Julius try to maintain continuity in the EAC500 discussions PLEASE. I guess you gentleman are GMT+2 or so. I'm nobody to even suggest such , however I respectfully propose that the conversations forward for a bit are focused on this new concept of safety and maintainability.

Thanks Gentlemen, Kathy

fred said...

Dear Kathy
(If i may call you dear ...)


why keeping the ongoing of discussion ...?

you resumed all very well , i suppose !

Nothing wrong with the love of aviation. Nothing wrong with profit.

There is ABSOLUTELY something wrong with the way this mess is unfolding!
the thing on which i would disagree with you :

"it is not something , but nearly everything !!! " ;-)

i believe Coldwet is really trying to save some unfortunate from this nightmare ...

to some extents , he should be taken as a "living god" for most of them ...
(as for not trying to rip them off an other time , not trying to "pull the blanket only for him" and [last but absolutely not the least] try to put some sanity into this ...)

nonetheless , i DO believe that the whole thing is done ...

any attempt in reviving the plot NEED to have the broadest possible participation of already owners (depositors have NOTHING left as hopes , only their eyes to cry their money !)

what chances there is to succeed in putting some order and decency into something that was built on lies ,marketing and dreams ?

i would guess : NONE !

you can do whatever you want , when someone enter in some deal with the wrong informations , aims , needs or simply ideas ...

it is nearly impossible to correct it after ...

what was dream will remain a dream , at the worst it will become a nightmare ... something based on facts , possibilities , normal plain way of things ? = almost never !

too many will clinch on the dream !

so , i think you are right : the plot is dead , the truth is unveiling ... chances are = it is going to be more and more ugly !

the best to do , now ?

= Fly it as long as possible as you see it safe ...

then park it , if you have some space for doing so ...

or just sale it for what it is worth ! ( aluminium , engines , spares , etc...)

and then move onto something REAL , something which is not going to be sold to you with the help of Jet-Complete-Lie , outrageous order-book and marketing stunts

the plane in such is dead : it become obvious that it is TOO expensive for what it is , TOO expensive to keep , TOO expensive for about everything ...

i wrote some times ago : économies de bouts de chandelles = the best way to spend a fortune tomorrow by trying to save a few $ today !!

fred said...

Billy :

thanks for the link to CIA population growth ...

I thought C.I.A. was Central Intelligence Agency ??

you see , it is very probably because i am beaten by my french ...

but for me and the few hundreds millions speaking the same idiom :

Intelligence means Cleverness ;-)
(not the lousy word , it seems to be in english ...)

so if President Obama want to save some money , i would give him the advice (if such a worm as i am can think of it ...) of reducing the CIA budget to the Buying-power of a simple Geography book !!!

it would (may be ) make a world of difference to simply Know Geography of the world (let alone Geo-politics) before trying to invade .... sorry ... save an other country in our world !!!

bill e. goat said...

Fred,
You greatly (?) underestimate the sophistication of us colonials !!

JustinTime said...

OK, Kathy... who are you and what was your title/involvement with Eclipse Aviation? You portray yourself as an authority on what has transpired but offer no insight into what your credentials are. So... back to the question... what was your title/involvement with Eclipse Aviation?

fred said...

billy ...

very good !! ;-)

yes , something along those lines ...

when you are a top-model or a Miss , usually your look can compensate your lack of brain or culture (sometime it is both !!)

you'll always find a showing-all-off guy (take him real stupid and quite rich ;-) ) ready to marry you to have an other trophy "on the wall" ...

but as for an official institution , swallowing billions every years ???? specialized in information data ...

to have so many mistake in a single page of a web-link ...

it is hilarious (when on this side ) or pathetic (when from your side !)

long-life the prejudicial ideas , in this they are confirmed !! ;-))

Dave said...

AIN has been unable to reach anyone at Brigadoon to confirm that the company exists and is operating. McRoelJet Forms Service Center Network

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

Hey Justin, around here we have a pretty long history of allowing any participant to self-identify, or not - as suits their personal needs.

It is obvious that Kathy likely has some first-hand experience, and she has provided some good insights, can we leave it at that?

If she so desires, I am sure she can fill us in but we have always tried to respect the anonymity of participants here, for both critic and faithful alike.

JustinTime said...

OK, I'll buy that Mack. But... to quote Abraham Lincoln,

"IT IS BETTER TO REMAIN SILENT AND BE THOUGHT OF AS A FOOL THAN TO SPEAK OUT AND REMOVE ALL DOUBT."

fred said...

and since i am in a good mood today , for you my dear Billy-chèvre :

i know that you like little image full of color , with lots of simple ideas ... ( where do i find all of this ? ;-) )

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O_TjBNjc9Bo

if you have never seen it before , it is quite good (even if they are very kind and trying their best not to be too scary !!!)

airtaximan said...

I suspect Kathy is not a fool... no matter what

JustinTime said...

I suspect the same BUT... some assumptions were made that I know for a fact not to be true.

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

Well fill us in JIT - we need the straight skinny and that takes multiple sources....

JustinTime said...

Just a few bites of information:

1. There is no software that performs an actual DSU analysis. This is done manually by looking at specific parameters that the DSU records. There were several trained people doing this. Some are freelancing but for how long, no one knows, you can't make a living doing this.

2. Eclipse Aviation didn't hire any new technicians during the last year of operation (there might have been one or two exceptions) but for sure none from June 2008 on.

3. Believe it or not there are many "GOOD" Eclipse A&P's that are available in Albuquerque, Albany and Gainesville that are still available or can make themselves available. Most have years of experience outside of Eclipse Aviation and their experience & capabilities far exceed just an Eclipse 500 "ONLY". Most were not "12 weekers" and obtained their credentials by attending college and trade school.

4. There is also a network of A&P technicians that were Eclipse Aviation Trained and Certified. A large number of them outside the USA.

5. The service centers remained very busy right up until the last month or two. It was not uncommon to have 10 or more aircraft in ABQ alone.

These are just a few FACTS that I have offered not emotional assumptions based on rumors.

Shane Price said...

Kathy,

I'm pretty sure I know who you are, but I'd love to confirm my 'suspicions'.

Drop me an line to the usual address and help me find out if I'm right.

Shane
PS If you are who I think you are, you know a lot more than almost anyone else here.

FreedomsJamtarts said...

If they stab the owners in the back, the brand is dead.I don't think stabbing a corpse changes much!

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

For you FJT ;^)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=grbSQ6O6kbs

FreedomsJamtarts said...

I fear if IP is removed from EAC, it just starts the string of different owners every 12-18 months, until it grinds to a stop with even more non-standardization in the field, with every iteration of "newco" building a few dozen this's and that's.That sound like utopia compared with the reality that this Parrot has squaked it's last squawk!

Kathy said...

JustinTime and Shane I don't care to divulge my identity. Allow me to address the good points that Justintime raises though.

As for graphically displaying selected parameters of DSU data you say there is no software involved? A couple "ADAS focals" were trained to use it. Since pilots don't always give you an exact time that something happened it makes things very easy since you don't have to sift through many cycles (taxi, takeoff, climb, cruise etc) to find the one during which an event occurred. Then the parameter(s) (for instance trim output from APC vs. actual trim position) could be graphically displayed over a time line along with airspeed, alt or whatever.

I didn't say there were techs hired since June 2008, they just took advantage of the situation and studied for their A&P's while getting paid for it. In and of itself quite smart of them to productively use the idle time instead of playing cards or video games like many. Understand that I'm speaking of PRODUCTION techs at the 4 PRODUCTION facilities out in New Mexico. Not the service centers, different ballgame altogether.

I did not mean to lump everyone into the category of a 12 weeker. That is wrong and I apologize. You are correct that there were some terrific techs working for EAC. In thinking about it there were some 12 weekers that were better than some experienced A&Ps because they were so proud of what they were doing. Again I apologize. I have no problem apologizing!

I don't think there are as many "Trained and Certified" techs outside the US as you think. By the way, what exactly is "trained and certified"? General Familiarization? This was quite helpful to SC techs that had never touched the EA500, but nothing compared to the schools of hard knocks that were called flight test, production or specializing in NG mods. Engine Run? It's far easier to light the EA500 engines than to start most APUs.

Yes the Service centers were busy until the end. Heck just back in Nov 2008 Albuquerque had around 20 aircraft. When the doors were locked they still had 3.

Shane, I have a feeling who you may think I am. It doesn't matter at this point in the game. I'm not trying to be the wizard behind the curtain. Believe me there are others around here that know ALOT!

FreedomsJamtarts said...

CWMR

Perfect link!

This must be the first time that anyone tries to use BK laws to give a major part of the type design data to 260 separate entities. The FAA must be filling their nappies at the mere thought of it.

I can't imagine the SW IP really being worth much without those who wrote it.

JustinTime said...

Trained and Certified would be technicians who were trained by Eclipse Aviation at the Training Center in ABQ.

I understand and respect your opinion.

I just wanted to clarify some issues that I know to be true. Eclipse Aviation was far from perfect and there were some very questionable undertakings. BUT... there were a few good employees there that were more than capable of fulfilling the mission.

The real deal remains that... the business plan was flawed from the get go!

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

FJT, although the motion seeks to release the IP to the individual owners, in practicality there will be an extraordinarily limited number of owners (my put is counted on less than two appendages from one hand) who will possess the configuration management and control capabilities and software savvy to actually do anything with it - and that is where the opportunity exists, IMO.

All FAA should likely care about is the solidity of the plan and who is doing the heavy lifting.

If it is Jim Bob and Bubba down in the hangar, that is one thing - if it is an experienced software management team, perhaps some vendors and the key players from the former Eclipse, then it may well be something else altogether.

I leave it to you to guess what I would attempt to put together.

julius said...

Kathy,

Just let this thing die. How eager are owners, TRULY, to keep these pos jets flying. The only folks trying to 'save the jet' are in it for their own gain. This is disgraceful.
CWMR's motion fits into his (and Bob's) concept. His future customers will stay current in jet flying and the integration of their engines into the new jet might be less expensive.

The only folks trying to 'save the jet' are in it for their own gain.One simply must not use them if one doesn't see any personal profit.

Naturally CWMR's motion will postpone the end the fpj saga.
I think even a "Chinese" owner has to support the current fleet - at least to a certain extend.

The latest SDRs of 2009 are not very helpful to question CWMR's motion resp. to demand a better maintenance regime!

Are there some other indicators apart from the AMM review resp. parts issues? I am not a maintenance procedue/quality professional for TC certified a/cs!

Julius

Shane Price said...

Kathy,

"Shane I don't care to divulge my identity."

Pity...

But, if you change your mind, you know where to get me.

Shane

bill e. goat said...

Hi Fred,
Thanks for the link to the movie (IOUSA)- pretty alarming forecast!

I have to admit- I had not heard of the film- rather discouraging because I try to keep an eye out for documentaries- guess it didn't get much theater circulation where I live- which in itself, is disturbing.

It is a discouraging climate- and looks like dark clouds will linger for a generation or more (or until the Chinese buy us out).

Regarding the accuracy of CIA population statistics- I'm not sure- I'll start counting tonight though!
.)

fred said...

Billy :

sorry to scare you with those "moving images" ...
since i have been working in this kind of stuff for some times , now ...
i don't think that it is bleak , reality in itself is more down to the point , they (the movie makers) eluded quite a few of the symptomatic reasons as well as what is the new set of situation where you are in ...

still i agree on the length of the process , one generation to go down the sink ... after , if humility is the norm , things will be back as in anywhere !

on the CIA 's mistakes list :

the problem with this kind of thing is that it is VERY difficult to extrapolate anything ...

as you probably know , it is very difficult to analyze a topic while being part of it ...

so where i would say the first mistake is : Much too raw data !

in the case of USA = is that taking care of immigration ? what is the spread of it onto the country ? without it , no way your population renewal can be achieved !
(this is one of the hypocrisies of the system [in most countries] , keeping immigrants as illegal but at same time be in need for them to come in : both for generation renewal and keeping a downward push on salaries )

the second :
it is about Geography ! did you see Hawaï being treated as a different country ? and what Puerto-Rico ? or US Virgin Islands ?
did you see every US States being treated as a different country ?

so what is valid for USA , should be analyzed the same way for every one (sorry to tell you : unlike what most politicians told you , there is not a single country in the world to be special !all the same under the same sun !)

the third :

to enable anyone to see this without putting a giant sign "In author opinion !" because this is what it is "only an opinion" ...

exactly the same way , in past what was heroes for some countries were criminals for some others ...

very difficult to present any data without any "partisan" siding , but when presented as pure truth : any data is supposed to be wrong to start with = because presented as truth

truth doesn't exist as a universal thing , since it depends mainly on the way you look at it !!!

Bubba said...

Anybody read Captain Zoom's latest rant about Sun and Fun? That is the event that has BANNED him for years. I've never read a bigger crock of shit in my life. (Please leave the profanity there is no better term to describe what I just read on this so-called "news" source!

I've actually sent this bone-headed dullard a request to remove me from his mailing list! Suggest everybody else do the same!

stan said...

For those not familiar with Capt. Zoom.

EclipsePilotOMSIV said...

Speaking of sun n fun anyone down here?

airtaximan said...

Is that Zoom or Vern?

gadfly said...

Just a thought or three from the “gadfly”:

Optimism is expecting good results . . . because of what you know, coupled with an element of control over future events.

Wishful thinking is hoping for good results in spite of what you know, coupled with little or no control of future events.

Of late, I’ve observed much more “wishful thinking” than true “optimism” in the many, many comments about the future of the little bird from the Rio Grande.

But then, that’s just my take on the “Eclipse big picture”, which seems to be getting smaller and smaller as the time goes bye . . . as in “Bye-bye”!

gadfly

(And it would seem that sooner, than later, the potentially leaking canisters of “Phostrex” will decide the final outcome . . . and no-one will be required to make that final decision to “pull the plug”.)

bill e. goat said...

Hi Fred,
Well, I've been busy with my "homework assignment" :)

Surfing around a bit, researching more on the video which you kindly provided a link to:
I.O.U.S.A. on Youtube
Note: this is a free 30-minute condensation of the full length 2008 feature film of the same name.

I.O.U.S.A. on Wikipedia

I liked the message of the video- and it did "explain" what all the noise about "entitlement" programs in the USA is about.

(I use quotations around "explain" for a reason, mentioned later).

The maker of the film, Peter G. Peterson, seems like he has "mostly" legitimate concerns and good intentions.
Peter George Peterson
(See more at
pgpf.org

Now, there are some cowboys out there taking potshots at the movie. (Probably, quite a few). This is the one that caught my attention:

I.O.U.S.A. is NOT OKWhat's up with these wacko's, I wondered?

Checking them out, it is sponsored by:
Center for Economic and Policy Research

I have heard about this organization, and considered it pretty mainstream-progressive (the same thing, in my book).

So, who are the kooks behind this org?

Dean Bakerand
Mark Weisbrot(I think I am particularly aligned with Dean Baker's thinking, but like the other guy too).

So- why are these guy's nit-picking the video, if the maker, and they, are fellow "progressives"/fiscal responsibility-ists (I will NOT use the term fiscal "conservatives", because the blatant fiscal record of "conservatives" is just the opposite).

The "critics" at CEPR are largely making fools of themselves in their critique- they points they make are petty and trite, and they contradict themselves, just to be able to disagree with a wider variety of positions. (They sound almost like us !!! :) Note: their "minute by minute" timeline corresponds to spots in the full-length film, but their objections can still be tracked by paying attention to the topics as they flow by.
Minute-by-Minute critique of the filmSo.
It seems to me these like-minded folks are not in "violent agreement" over the danger of the deficit, but rather, the source of the deficit- I believe the film maker is saying that entitlement programs (social security, medicare, and medicade) are the biggest danger- the CEPR guys are saying- not so, but fail to say why they so strenuously object to the implicit proposition that entitlements are the larger evil. (I infere, their position is entitlements will take care of themselves, that larger danger is non-entitlement spending-versus-revenues. But I'm not quite positive that is their position).
-----------------------------------

So Fred (and everyone else)-
Two questions please:

1) at 16:14 into the youtube video version, there is a chart, which shows a dramatic (very!) change in US savings rates, over the period of 1998-2000; what's that due to, (why so dramatic of change in such a short time- what was going on then)?

2) If you had to pick one - which is the larger burden to the US budget in 2030:

a) entitlement programs
-or-
b) interest on the national debt

(I figure even though it's not a European issue, it affects the global economy enough that you are pretty well studied up on it).

Thanks !!

bill e. goat said...

Hi Fred,
From your post on Friday:

1) "without it (immigration) , no way your population renewal can be achieved !"

The immigrant debate in the USA is not focused on population renewal (fighting population decline), rather, it is on the disproportionate burden the average immigrant places on the existing societal infrastructure (crime, education, health care). US society benefits greatly from
legal immigrants("40% of PhD scientists working in the US are foreign born")

But

illegal immigrationIs purely a burden on society. Don't think so? Go to Los Angeles. Or Maimi. Or Houston.
"(CBO says) the tax revenues that unauthorized immigrants generate for state and local governments do not offset the total cost of services provided to those immigrants"Simply, if the US needed immigrants to "prop up the system", we'd allow more legal immigrants in.
-----------------------------------

2) "it is about Geography ! did you see Hawaii being treated as a different country ? and what Puerto-Rico ? or US Virgin Islands ?
did you see every US States being treated as a different country ?"
I missed Hawaii being list in the CIA world book link, but did see the other two (U.S. Virgin Islands (-0.03%), and Puerto Rico (0.34%). At 4 million, and 110 thousand, respectively, they are inconsequential to the US politics or economy, and indeed are not states at all- although there has been talk about making Puerto Rico one (which I would support), or ditching P.R. all together (which I would equally support- it is an inconsequential issue for "mainlanders", and both territories dramatically benefit from US affiliation

Especially considering the life style in their nearest significant neighbors, Haiti and the Dominican Republic; politically, economically, environmentally, educationally, health-wise, etc: the a-holes of the western hemisphere.

In fact, I believe my proposition that swelling population leads to social and environmental decay is rather well represented by Haiti:
Haiti population curve(European Union +0.11%, the USA, about 1.0%).
-----------------------------------

3) "Exactly the same way , in past what was heroes for some countries were criminals for some others ..."
Very true...
(My particular conundrum is whether
Curtis LeMay
should be condemned as the worst monster in US military history, or not.
("Precise figures are not available, but the firebombing and atomic bombing campaign against Japan, directed by LeMay between March 1945 and the Japanese surrender in August 1945, may have killed more than one million Japanese civilians." ")

(Apparently, he too had given the thought some attention:
"he once remarked that had the U.S. lost the war, he fully expected to be tried for war crimes")

But,
"He argued that it was his duty to carry out the attacks in order to end the war as quickly as possible, sparing further loss of life."Personally, I come down on the side of self-serving monster.

One reads the accounts of the Japanese in China and Korea, and it is tempting to allow conclusions to become fuzzier.
Unit 731That is a temptation to be defeated:
Firebombing cities and nuclear attacks on civilians was evil on a monstrous scale.

Sadly, the Japanese may never correct their text books to show the atrocities they committed in their "economic cooperation sphere".
Sadly, we may never correct US text books to show our atrocities either.

(I suspect our uniformed military leaders are both more moral and smarter than I, and have likewise evaluated LeMay's actions- I truly believe this was the reason for the push for "precision strike" weapons).

"very difficult to present any data without any "partisan" siding , but when presented as pure truth : any data is supposed to be wrong to start with = because presented as truth"Difficult, but rational thought is a discipline worth the labor developing.

"truth doesn't exist as a universal thing , since it depends mainly on the way you look at it !!!"?? "truth is context sensitive ?"
(sometimes yes, sometimes no- depends on whether I agree or not with the proposition being discussed !! :)

There is a saying, about getting opposing viewpoints- that sometimes there is fallacy in that, because it serves to legitimize a blatantly wrong position (evolution vs creationism, or the earth is round vs the earth is flat, global warming versus "natural phenomena", CIA torture versus "confessions").

I wish I could remember the exact eloquent summary of that danger. In general, I think it is important to listen to opposing viewpoints- just to keep in practice; but it is equally important to investigate WHY someone is stating their opinion- what cause are they trying to advance, which frequently is completely obscure to what they are saying).

Kathy said...

BEG, Fred, Julius great commentary. Wrong blog.

Would anyone care to guess how many FHI wings are in NM?

Then again how many have Mecaer landing gear?

It doesn't matter now. Or does it?

JustinTime do you know what an ADAS focal is? Do you know anything about the EAC training center for techs? How relevant are the certifications?

fred said...

Kathy :

yes , you are perfectly right ! it is NOT related directly with aviation or EAC ...

Nonetheless , Economy is one of the major key-factor into the plot ...

fail to recover and private aviation will be , at the best, some kind of memories ...!

fred said...

Billy :

i am amazed by your "homework" power ... !

definitely , if you were looking for a job (on such grounds as analyst ) i could give you a few hints ... ! ;-)

i believe that your country deserve to have more peoples like Monsieur Stan (where he could have kept his mouth shut and make hips of money with the Mainstream of , then , Eclipse worshipers ...) Monsieur Gunner (who put his own money in the line of fire for his own principles , regardless of if he agreed with the peoples he defended ...) or you ...!

it need a lot to make a nation , but what is almost a treasure = it is normal people able to show to others "Where" they are on a train to oblivion ...

most prefer to "look like" they believe the "politician crap" , regardless of where you come from , politicians very often put themselves "out of the mass" and tend to mislead the electors to get re-elected (the biggest drama of all democracies ... confirmed many times in Human history with such as Hitler [took power using 100% democratic rules!] and many others ...)

easiness is such a powerful drive ... most will prefer to have an other beer or answer you that "No one told them what you just said ..."

the fact remain : whoever get the attention of the crowds on a specific problem , will be blamed for this problem ...
(in the shorter or longer run ...)

it is a constant in any Human society ...!

so to answer your questions :

what will be the bigger problem in 2030 :

it won't be ANY of the ones you mentioned ...

ONLY the ones US citizens are making now with such a great dedication ...!

having or not having a problem is ALMOST a detail ...

what is the MOST important : TO BE ABLE TO ACCEPT THE POTENTIAL EXISTENCE OF A PROBLEM !

it is called "the Ostrich policy" as soon as a problem is seen , the best way is to put head in sand : No problem seen = No problem at all !!

it has some relation with the CIA thing :

what a was amused about , CIA can present data = perfectly normal !

where they are total fools : they cannot get it right !!!

not the numbers , working with stats , i can tell you it is very misleading ...!

but with the way it is presented !

if you look at the link :

you can see "Mayotte" as a country ...
this is a "view of mind" from a geo-politic standpoint from CIA (there is no mention it is "In CIA opinion" )

Saint-pierre et Miquelon = the same ...

so the question = WHY they didn't keep on with New-caledonia ? or Falklands ?

why they didn't take out California ? as much as i know it is a place where spanish is the most spoken language and since it is a bankrupt state = Why Not ?

you see this is the problem IOUSA , immigration or me are talking about :

anyone can have any opinion !! but if things are presented without explanations of context OR with some GeoPolitic undermining , THEN most are pushed to make the wrong conclusions ...!!

then you may have a country where it is seen to be perfectly normal that a president is nearly thrown-out of office because one of the assistant did a little "favor" to him ...
and an other one to be re-elected because he only lied to the rest of the world ... ABROAD !!!

you see it is really to easy to claim whatever ... i have tried to advocate in my career that peoples should try to know each other BEFORE making any conclusion ...

in that respect , this is Where USA (as a whole nation) is mostly wrong ... as long as they will see themselves as "something special" , it will lead only to delusion , sufferings and misunderstandings ...!

it has been the same for almost any country in the world ...

Brits thought the sun couldn't go down on their Empire = now more and more expert think UK is going to need a Loan from WMF for not being declared bankrupt ...

call it World-conciseness or plain stupidity ...

it is what we are going to live for the generations to come !

Kathy said...

Fred, there are other blogs more focused on the correlation of GA and the world economy then EACNG. EAC was a player in GA.

With all due respect, JustinTime would you care to reveal YOUR identity? You stated your knowledge of the PIT (process improvement team) that was going on at the IDLE time. I can only hope you didn't drink that koolaid. What a crock that was!

fred said...

Kathy :

you are "almost" right !

yes , i am sure there is lots of other places to give my opinion ...

no problem about that ...

the fact is : i don't care about GA !

i came to this when i nearly got raped by the thieves at EAC ...

i was looking at EA500 as a tool , not really as a dream ...

but EAC had lots to do with Economy ...

if the most players (unfortunate owners and depositors ) wouldn't have been blinded by the state of their own economy :
the scam would have had stopped very long time ago ...

if they would have been interested in World-Economy and into the "WHY are we great?" they would have known a few things about other places :
the Utter-BS about European need for such a toy would have been spotted many years ago ...

you see , with all respect , things are a "bit" more inter-linked that most think ...

fred said...

billy :
i forgot (how can i be so stupid ? ;-) )


why the "saving-power" of US average became negative in the last few years ?

it is called "quantitative easing" !

Bush decided to stop publishing data on M3 ...

perfect ! his own choice ...

but at this time , the huge cliff widened even more = it became completely stupid to save money !

since borrowing could be done UNDER real inflation : what was the incentive to save ?

at the same time (with lots of new $ printed and injected in circuit) not saving means spending (i think the highest of the peak was "for each $ , one $ + 14 cts was spent" )

in a country where GDP is made at 76% about consumers spending = if you push peoples to spend by manipulating monetary masses and BS like "We are the greatest" ; "End of history" ; "they sweat , we spend"

you obtain a result which is very easy to predict :
your GDP is rocketing !!!

exactly what you need to make your own people forgetting about unneeded war , terror BS , lack of any solution , etc ...

what an average Joe is doing to get his wife to be "easy on him" ?

some give wife a credit-card , while the wife is shopping : she doesn't think about that "little young blond beauty" you were trying to chat into some affairs ...!!

bill e. goat said...

Hi Kathy,

"BEG, Fred, Julius great commentary."
:)

"Wrong blog.":(

"there are other blogs more focused on the correlation of GA and the world economy then EACNG"?
-----------------------------------

"Would anyone care to guess how many FHI wings are in NM?"Hmmm- 18

"Then again how many have Mecaer landing gear?"Hmmm- 18

"It doesn't matter now. Or does it?"Hmmm- I'd reckon a wing cost around $100K, so whether it is 10 or 20 in stock, is a $1-$2M question.

The larger question is why EAC couldn't get a $100-$200M loan.

Which, involves the global economy.
-----------------------------------

Fred, I'm glad you didn't get taken on a ride by WedgeCo.

Did you find a suitable alternative?

(I think Big Ed Air Taxi, Inc. found Lincoln Town Cars to be rather effective in alternatives. The hard way. Still, not as flashy).

fred said...

beg ...

thanks for your concern ...
that's a golden star on Monsieur Stan's wall ... ! ;-)

i didn't find any alternative , i didn't look for !

i came to this nightmare when i was fed-up of wasting too much time in airports ...

the marketing-stunt was "easy to fly , cheap to buy , cheaper to keep"

i looked at it ...

you know i am a "little" skeptical , so i searched for counter-arguments ...

i found Monsieur Stan's excellent work , you know the plot...

i dropped the need for an aircraft (for work-need) i decided to get retired , instead !! ;-)

bill e. goat said...

Hi Fred,
I'm glad "plan B" (retirement) is working out- no EA500 for you turned out to be a blessing in disguise !!
.)
-----------------------------------

If you thought YOU spent a lot of time waiting for your next flight, I fear our friends with EA500's are in significant risk of having a much longer wait !!

(Let's hope someone picks up the pieces and get's this thing moving again soon!)

Shane Price said...

Mini Snippet

Roel and Mike (Press) have indeed gone their separate ways.

That's official, at least as far as Mike's concerned.

He's been kind enough to pass me a substantial missive, updating us from his perspective. As soon as I've reduced his multi page opus to something more suitable for the blog I'll be posting a new headline.

Shane

airtaximan said...

somehow, I figgered it would be tough for RiP to claim he had assets or capital, while declaring BK... so his usefulness is really limited.

Think anyone should have known this a few months ago?

Dreams never die, just the dreamers...

Dave said...

Think anyone should have known this a few months ago?It seems weird - either they did know but didn't care (which isn't good) or they didn't know (which isn't good either). I think Mike Press knew, just he didn't think that Mann would actually take it to court. Both by their PR and overall, Roel played a substantial role - I don't think the company would have been named Eclipse Jet (just one space difference from Roel's pre-BK SPE) if Roel didn't figure prominently.

Shane Price said...

New post up.

Col. Mike and his merry crew have provided a useful update, most of which I'm able to post in the headline.

Please also give some thought to my remarks at the end about future direction. I'd welcome your comments, to the usual address.

Shane