Thursday, February 12, 2009

Love it, loath it.

We've been so tied up waiting for news from Moscow that I've been slow to update the headline post, but I've also been working with a number of owners and/or pilots to provide a 'warts and all' review of the FPJ in the real world. It's fair to summarize my findings with the headline above, as it's clear to me that the aircraft is like the mythical 'little girl'. You all know the story, which goes like this:-

"When she is good, she is very, very good. But when she is bad, she is horrid"

So, with that in mind, herewith a mixture of quotations (in red) and my own contributions which remain in good old fashioned black. It's a very underrated colour in my humble opinion, but I digress.

The basics
Most of us have never flown an FPJ, and it's probably fair to say that few of us critics would embrace the opportunity were it ever to present itself. Across the range of replies I've had, the common theme is that the bird flies very well, and meets (or exceeds) it's performance numbers. A typical comment:-

"Aerodynamicly they got the airframe design and engines right, they are a well blended match producing the performance numbers that were advertised. So Eclipse actually did meet that promise. The jet is very simple to fly, and the Avio NG system, although full of bugs, has a great display presentation and very logical interface to all of the aircrafts' systems."

Avio, both versions
It has some fans. Pilots like the presentation of everything in one style and they like the Crew Alerting System (CAS) popping up in plain view. They like the fact that you select one 'TO Configuration' and pretty much avoid the simpler ways to kill yourself on takeoff.

"The Avio NG system, although full of bugs, has a great display presentation and very logical interface to all the aircraft systems. For most this will be their first exposure to a crew alerting system. The CAS really reduces the workload and keeps you well informed on the health and status of the jet."

What drives everyone mad is due to the level of integration which tends to alert you a lot. Most pilots report that the audibles are too loud, to the point where they can interfere with ATC. The problem here is that there is no way to 'save' your preferred volume so that each time you fly you end up adjusting it again.

Startup, taxi and takeoff
A common thread with the FPJ is the GPU 'requirement'. It seems that any sort of hot weather at all makes the cockpit too uncomfortable to work in, so a number of pilots insist on starting the aircon first, which naturally ties you to the GPU. After doing the normal checklist, which is straightforward enough for a twin jet, it's time to taxi away. The size of the tires is blamed by several for what's claimed to be a rough ride, and the turning circle means you need to stay on top of your game out to the runway.

"Acceleration is fairly quick, inside is amazingly quiet. There is a nuisance alarm that can occur at warm ambient temps giving the occassional engine Warning message but other then that its APR armed, Airspeed alive, and at VR hands off the thottles and pull back on the stick. I wasn't sure if I would like the side stick, but after using it, I love the fact that you're wide open in front of you, perfect if you want to use your laptop or read something. At 400 feet flaps up, set max continuous thrust, and yaw damp on, 1000 feet auto pilot on, heading select, and the next check is 10k for recognition lights off and look for a delta P on the pressuization. To date all delivered E500'a are raw data, VOR DME aircraft. Autopilot is only good for pitch and roll. I have yet to fly an Eclipse that doesn't roll left and right 3 to 5 degrees when in heading mode."

So far, so good. The bird starts, taxi's and takes off without huge drama and in commendably short order. The takeoff distances are praised and the 'feel' of the aircraft also gets high marks.

Climb, cruise and descent
The Autopilot has its' limits, which many pilots have observed. While good in calm air, it tends to bug out in anything other than light turbulence. Range and payload are better than you would think, in large part due to the very low specific fuel consumption. This is clearly a tribute to the basic design, as well as the job P&W did on a 'clean sheet' engine. But there are 'real world' issues that you don't expect.

"Another downside to the autopilot is when commanding pitch changes in an NG aircraft. It sometimes takes up to 20 seconds or so before the input gets processed by the computers. My technique is to dial in 4 to 5 clicks of the wheel and resist the temptation to dial more if there is no initial response. Wait it out, eventually it will happen. In pitch mode the autopilot does a terrible job of maintaining a steady rate of descent, and it requires constant attention. I actuallly think it would be less work load to hand fly the descents."

ATC still don't quite know what to make of the FPJ. Over time this will probably go away, but only if the FPJ stays alive long enough, in numbers, so that the slower speed becomes more familiar to the controllers. To mix it with the jets at higher FL's also requires range limiting 'max thrust' settings, and there are issues with static interference on the radios cause by ice crystals. So, the comfortable range flight of about 850nm is coming to a end. What happens next?

Final approach and landing
Distractions from the 'high volume' audibles during final are a pain, as are the speed expectations from ATC. Our old friend of tyre wear makes a welcome reappearance on the blog. Remember when all we really talked about were simple things like that? Anyway, a concluding quote from an owner/pilot.

"Descents and landings are straight forward, although you will soon find that the slow speeds on approach used in the Sims create road blocks in the real world. Because a lot of ATC controllers aren't familiar with the Eclipse, they know you are a jet and sequence you into traffic accordingly and are expecting jet speeds. I usually fly the approach around 120 to 115, and slow as I approach 200 feet AGL. The jet lands easy, and as long as you touch down close to VTD, braking or tire blowouts should not be a problem. The tires do not wear well at all, and it is not the landings that take the toll. Any time the jet rolls on the ground, you can see black marks on the pavement, proof that the tires are leaving behind lots of rubber. And they wear on the outside near the sidewalls, not in the center."

So thats a pretty nice summary of the general performance of the aircraft, with details supplied by those who fly it. Naturally, there is more.

Living with the 'issues'
Naturally people are reluctant to be identified when there is still a remaining chance the original service centers will be around. They don't want to be scapegoated for drawing attention to the problems they've experienced so I'll have to be a bit vague in collating this section and avoid direct quotations.

The CAS system does exactly that. It keeps the crew alert by streaming plenty of false messages into the cockpit. All pilots who've contacted me report the same 'heading disagree', 'attitude disagree' and 'stick pusher fail' messages which come and go at a whim. The general experience with the earlier birds is worse, but even the Avio NG craft deliver master cautions and warnings of a spurious nature about one flight in four.

Mechanical failures abound, sadly, with door seals, air conditioning, rudder and elevator trim 'issues' very common. All owners report difficulties with water getting into places it shouldn't, which is bound to happen when you're away from your home base with it's nice dry hanger. Most people also report interior trim falling off or not being fitted properly in the first place. There is a thread running through most of the report I have about difficulty communicating problems to the service centers. The staff themselves generally perform trojan work, but parts can take a long time to arrive from suppliers (I wonder why...) and often take several attempts to fix the underlying problem. At least one of my correspondents thinks this is due to the high level of integration within the aircraft, which means software problems with Avio are confusing the mechanics and (to some extent) vice versa.

So, there you have it. An up to date report, complied from many sources, on the current state of the FPJ, as an aircraft. As mentioned on the top of this post, we await news on the Chapter 11 outcome for the company, both from Moscow/ETIRC and the Bankruptcy Court in Delaware, where an appeal was lodged yesterday.

Spring approaches, as does the anniversary of the NG version of this blog. I'm just beginning to wonder if company (any version) will survive to help us celebrate the event, which takes place on Monday!

Shane

545 comments:

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bill e. goat said...

Hi Ken,
"If you can't get simple facts right--like the spelling..."

I think the double dashes should be only a single, or a semicolon--I think.

:)

Ken Meyer said...

Pretty cute, Bill, but...

Check out this usage guide.

:)

Ken

airtaximan said...

Ken, some people do not care about a misspelled word, they look for the meaning.

My sense is, these would be different folks than the one's looking at minute details regarding a plane, as opposed to systemic problems with the company.

One might say, the guy who focuses on insects and leaves, misses the trees and the forest altogether.

The idea that somoenes syntax or spelling actually has anything to do with their credibility or the logic of their arguments and opinions and conclusions, is really rediculous.

But, I know it makes you feel better to think so.

airtaximan said...

ridiculous... I know....

airtaximan said...

I also missed a '

bill e. goat said...
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bill e. goat said...

Ken,
I stand humbled--and busted!
:)

Rats! There goes my "zinger of the day" :(

flyger said...

epilot said...

My point was simply to take blocked tail numbers into consideration when one is compiling statistics.

How?

bill e. goat said...

Of course, me commenting on spelling and punctuation is indeed, a case of

Kettle: "Hi Pot--You're black!"
:)
----------------------------------
The downturn in the aviation biz has Mr. Goat stressn' of late- still charming aluminum and electrons, but not sure when the charm will run out- I am dismayed (and embarrassed) when I read some of my posts lately (typ: "when" took three tries, "whem", "jhem", "wehn"--I think I finally got it right though:).

Much preoccupation with other matters of late.

I hope our friend Joe P. has arrived in safe port- I believe he became a "free agent" a few weeks back, and mentioned Europe and the Middle East as venues he was considering.

Same I'm sure with Dave before the holidays, and Eclipse_Deep_Throat, no doubt many other readers, and perhaps contributors.

It is a "challenging" time in the industry. So far, the fall hasn't been nearly as far as the 1980's, but the rate of change seems sharper than after 9/11 (hasn't fallen quite as far as that yet, either, in the air industry anyway, from where I observe things*).

(I imagine there many others equally detracted by events occurring or imminent. Let's not take our anxiety and frustration out on each other).
---------------------------------

My perspective: if "normal" (1980, 1998, 2006) is a 10, I'd say the worse of 1980's was about a 3, this is about a 6, so far.

But I suppose the three years I mention were NOT normal, but instead, were "high water" marks, we tend to forget that when looking at "how bad things have gotten".

To which I would add; the great depression must have been about a negative 20, so I think we almost all have a lot to be very thankful for.

Dave said...

One might say, the guy who focuses on insects and leaves, misses the trees and the forest altogether.

"It's like a finger pointing to the moon. Don't look at the finger or you miss all that heavenly glory." -ETD

EclipsePilotOMSIV said...

Bill you jacked my kettle and pot line. Just FYI

bill e. goat said...

Hi Flyger,
Thanks for the interesting statistics on Eclipsi utilization stats.
There are probably some limitations on the stats, as other point out (blocking).

I wonder if some of it might be the rather nasty weather (icing) this time of year as well.

Also, icy runways this time of year are the only condition which I think anti-skid brakes might be a useful addition to the EA500. (But I would expect this, while a valid hypothetical concern, in practice, is somewhat diminished- I think there are a lot of Cessna piston twin freight dogs running around in cruddy weather without a-skid as well--although, with reversible props...).

bill e. goat said...

EPx,
Actually, for the past two weeks, I really have noticed an alarming number of errors in my posts- not that the thoughts are correct, but at least the grammatical composition used to vary between correct and creative, and (I hope) were not all that often flat out wrong.

I blamed the Microsoft ergonomic keyboard for a while (it really does suck), but after I replaced it, the results weren't that much better.

I'll try to be more carefuller in the future
.)

bill e. goat said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
bill e. goat said...

"One might say, the guy who focuses on insects and leaves, misses the trees and the forest altogether."

Hmmm- that guy sounds like my old flight instructor...

He slowed down- and smelled the roses
(...or maybe the next of kin did)

baron95 said...

Hi Fred,

Don't worry. I can understand your French-accented English very well, as I know the French words you are trying to translate and use.

For example: when you write "security", I know you really mean "safety", because you are translating the word "sécurité".

And costs ALWAYS have to be taken into account on safety and all other matters. If you mandate very expensive equipment and procedures (e.g. second crew member) on GA planes, what you are doing is causing pilots to continue to fly Vietnam era GA planes with all the negative implications to safety.

Same with fuel economy/pollution. If you mandate very expensive fuel economy/pollution control equipment you just force a lot of people to drive older much more fuel inefficient cars a lot longer.

That is why I am hopeful for SEJs like the Cirrus and Diamond Jets and was hoping to be wrong on the Eclipse being able to maintain a $1.5M price.

That would move a lot of private GA pilots from C340s and Malibus and Barons and older MUs into much safer planes.

But, that will not happen in this decade. Maybe next decade. We now have COTS integrated avionics and COTS small/inexpensive turbofans.

We are missing two more ingredients:
- inexpensive composite airframe materials and construction methods.
- inexpensive all-electric systems (pressurization, brakes, de-icing, climate control).

Lets see if the 787 program, and the automotive movement to composites and electric systems manages to bring the costs of those things down.

bill e. goat said...

Another "Gear Up" Incident !?!

Okay okay- everyone calm down!!

No pilots were injured (well, only minor) in the production of the previous post!

I thought that last post just a bit ghoulish, so before I put it up, I really did check- this photo is somewhat legend, to the point I wondered if it was an "urban" legend.
---------------------------------

"Yes this is Meadowlake airport just east of Colorado Springs, No this picture is not a fake. Happened about a month ago and from what I understand this plane was being rented, the Pilot took off and started to leave the pattern then the engine stopped, he turned around and tried to land on the runway again but could not make it. If the tree did not catch him he would have wiped out a row of parked planes from the same place he was renting this one from. Nobody hurt in accident, Pilot said he would be flying again next week".
Rotary Wing Forum
Airnav, MeadowLake Airport
NSTB, 12.07.2006, PA-28-180, Falcon, CO

A happy ending, for everyone except the guy who owned the rented airplane...

bill e. goat said...

The more sobering reflection upon reading the fine print on an otherwise good ending of the Piper PA-28-180 ("Chainsaw) accident: it was also related to ice- carb ice in this case...

bill e. goat said...

Baron,
I find it a weird coincidnce to reflect upon the 787 Boeing program, and the $787B bailout package.

(I think Boeing wishes they could bail out of the 787 program!)

The OTHER 787 program

baron95 said...

BEG - the landing gear was down.

And I'd just like to say that:

"We all right good"

bill e. goat said...

Baron,
"Down and welded- check !" :)
------------------------------------
I "flip flopped" (!!) between a Cherokee (fixed gear) and Arrow (retractable), and my old flight instructor DID do the old flight instructor trick, of dimming the gear down lights, about 30 feet above the ground on short final...a very stimulating event for the neophytes- good thing there were lots of trees handy! He quickly persuaded me "this is only a test". (actually, I think my ashen complextion did the convincing, before we got Ash trim in the cockpit- and everywhere else).

By ash trim, of course, I'm refering to the Fraxinus type of wood trim.
Ash Tree

Although, speaking of ash and faux (er, frax), I wonder if Eclipse will be offering a limited edition "Ash Trim" package too, maybe the Franklin Edition !!
:)

baron95 said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
baron95 said...

CW, I do respect and I am in fact very much interested in reading your perspective and experiences as it relates to icing and the causes for the Dash 8 accident.

BUT

The NTSB leading investigator's remarks 24 hrs after the accident that “[The Dash 8] is not really susceptible to ice.", when the crew in their own words was REALLY CONCERNED about ice, and icing is likely to be a factor in this accident, is very, very unfortunate (at the least), and perhaps even disqualifying for the leadership of the investigation.

When a person makes an unfortunate remark like that, and it becomes widely criticized and even ridiculed, that person tends to become very defensive and tried too hard to be "right", which MAY impact the work.

This is likely to be a very complex investigation, and one that may be very important for future air safety. Too bad it started with an unfortunate remark from the lead investigator.

That was my point.

I am no icing/aerodynamics expert. But I KNOW that we have lost lives in FIKI part 25-certified turboprops with a very similar configuration as the Dash 8. I also know that boots as in most turboprops like the Dash 8, present unique problems compared to heated leading edges in most other part 25 civil air transports.

There is NO QUESTION in my mind that turboprops with boots like the Dash-8 are more vulnerable to icing than comparable sized turbofans like E-170s with heated leading edges.

To say that the Dash-8 is "really not susceptible to ice" is an idiotic statement.

To say that 24 hrs after an accident where the crew in their own words was concerned about icing is unimaginable.

And even if in the end icing is found not to be a factor, with the facts known now it is still idiotic and unimaginable.

What good did that statement do? It is unprofessional. It is insulting to the families and to others that care about aviation like me. I am embarrassed just reading that comment.

Luke said...

An educational video from NASA about tailplane stalling, possibly relevant to CO3407 accident. It claims that the correct response to a tailplane stall is opposite to an ordinary wing stall (i.e., yoke back, reduce power).

About me: Like many here, I am an engineer, pilot, and lifelong aviation enthusiast. Unlike many here, I'm no expert -- I'm 26, have a mere 3 years experience as a working engineer, and have only 50 flying hours. I have been reading this blog (and Stan's before it) for about two years, and I've learned a great deal about aviation and business. I appreciate the folks who post here.

Shane Price said...

I'm really disappointed...

There was once a time that Ken would have argued this debate with his 'facts' to counter our 'facts'.

Now, all he does is complain about my spelling.

Or, and we can't discount the possibility, he might have run out of a ready supply of 'facts'.

Oh, how the mighty are fallen.

Shane

baron95 said...

And if you want to know a bit more about tailplane icing, you can watch this video-study from NASA.

You will hear right off the bat that turboprop airliner are specially vulnerable. Despite what the great NTSB leader might have said.

baron95 said...

Hi Luke - our posts crossed in cyberspace ;)

Shane Price said...

Luke,

Welcome to the blog.

But remember Luke, the Force is strong in many here, and some hark to the Dark Side.

I'm showing my age with that remark. I saw Episode IV (then just called Star Wars) three times the week it released here in Ireland.

Still one of my all time favorite movies....

Shane

Shane Price said...

Oi, Black Tulip,

Irish Alzheimer’s Disease – The patient has forgotten everything except the grudges. They know they want to kill someone, but can’t remember who.

A proper Irishman never forgets his grudges. You are hereby reduced to a single pint of Guinness for suggesting a mere medical condition might interfere with...

.... what was I ranting on about?

Shane

Dave Ivedorne said...

Baron95,

A bit off-topic, but I have an Air Taxi question for you.

One of these days, I'm going to have to get from EWR to NYC. I'm under the impression that perhaps you've made this trip a few dozen ( or hundred ) more times than I have ( 0 ). My meager research so far suggests three ways: NJTransit train to Penn + taxi to my destination ( 31st & Madison ); taxi all the way from EWR; and Air Taxi to 34th St heliport + taxi.

First option seems like a bit of a hassle; second one seems like the cab ride from Hell. I have no objection to the cost of the helo, and figure there might be a collateral ( if brief ) sightseeing benefit. I'll not be under any particular time pressures, but if a taxi costs $60, and the air taxi only roughly twice that, I'd be inclined to fly.

What obvious, superior alternative am I overlooking? Have you developed any opinion of using US Helicopters for that mission?

TIA,
DI

epilot said...

DI, I assume you are flying into EWR. I've taken that trip many, many times myself. It is indeed the taxi trip from hell depending on time of day. The NJT really is pretty easy and quick. Quicker than a taxi most times. The helicopter option I've looked into however in every case I've tried it would have left me waiting at EWR for an hour and a half to catch the flight. By that time I was already at my destination in the city.

Zed said...

DI -

Your airline will probably have a package deal on the helo. The ride is sweet, but if the winds are up be ready to bail to ground transpo.

There is definitely a style difference as well. If cost isn't an issue ... fly.

Jackrabbit said...

What obvious, superior alternative am I overlooking?

With a 31st and Madison destination, your trip is obviously for business. Gotomeeting.com: videoconference, interactive whiteboard, etc. But if you really have to go, my experience is that NJT is the best overall in NYC.

Dave Ivedorne said...

epilot, Zed, Jackrabbit,

Thanks. Ground taxi's off the list. Cost - at least that cost - is not an issue ( business is good at the drive-thru window these days ), so I'll book the flight. Oddly enough, it's almost twice as expensive to arrange the air taxi with Continental as it is with USH directly. If it's dicey out, I'll bail and take the train. And no, it's not business - just touristing and meeting friends. But I do like a nice hotel room...

DI

Black Tulip said...

"But I do like a nice hotel room..."

Don't try the one in Times Square where they ask, "Do you want the room by the hour or would you like to keep it all night?"

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

Baron we're just going to have to agree to disagree then.

I think Chealander is doing the right thing, and I think that as evidence comes out, it is beginning to look like a rookie crew operating outside the OEM and Airline Ops Manuals, in a serious situation.

How do you get to be Capt with only 2 months experience in make?

The larger lesson remains - OEM's the Operators and the Regulatory Agencies do not always get it right, but they try damn hard.

Based on that best effort, they train pilots to a level that most of us do not see, and yes, even guys with a Type Rating or two do not see the same level of training.

Compare that to the long gestational period for EAC's FIKI efforts, the fact that none to date are in the hands of customers, and the training partner is now the EX training partner.

This is a cautionary tale for those willing to learn.

Dave Ivedorne said...

"Do you want the room by the hour or would you like to keep it all night?"

I'm meeting existing friends, not professional ones ( that didn't go so well for Spitzer, come to think of it ). Just to be on the safe side, I also avoided establishments that asked if I was going to need clean sheets.

Would you like smoking or non-smoking cockroaches?
DI

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

Meant to ask Baron, where did the procedures and speeds you mentioned about how you fly your Baron in/following ice come from?

Dave Ivedorne said...

ColdWet,

You're forgetting something - Chealander is almost certainly the member of one union or another. Therefore, according to one world view, it's never too soon to start the demonizing.

Baron is conflating the correct observation that the Dash 8 "is not really susceptible to ice" AS A DESIGN, with the other correct observation that "the crew in their own words was really concerned about ice" IN THEIR EXTANT SITUATION, and treating the statements as though they address the same subject. They don't. I leave it as an exercise for the reader to decide whether or not this is deliberate on Baron's part.

How do you get to be Capt with only 2 months experience in make?

I dunno, ask Ken. Maybe by mailing in a particularly good rendition of "Tippy" of matchbook cover art school fame?

What's the red switch do?
DI

Ken Meyer said...

"Imadork" comments, "How do you get to be Capt with only 2 months experience in make?--I dunno, ask Ken."

Well, in the Eclipse you do it the same exact way you do it in any privately-owned jet: by passing a very tough checkride flown to the exact same standards required of an airline pilot, single-pilot in the case of the Eclipse.

And in the Eclipse, that merely makes you eligible to be observed and tutored by an-airline type for a while before you demonstrate desired proficiency and get signed off to fly alone as Captain.

It's a tough task to be the Captain of an Eclipse or any other VLJ, but the benefits are certainly there--

My flight 2 days ago. A pittance of gas produced 370 knots TAS in the low 30's, in quiet cabin-class comfort of the type only a jet can yield, above the weather, and without the vibration and noise of a propeller-plane, watching the turboprops fall behind and below us.

Can you tell I love the plane? :)

Ken

epilot said...

With Ken I must agree... I love the plane.

With somme I must agree... I dislike the plane on occasion.

With all I must agree... I hate the company.

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

Why only the low 30's Ken? Doesn't your plane have the legal ability, at this time, to operate at FL410?

Wouldn't the mileage be even better up there with the other jets?

And Dave was speaking tongue-in-cheek - my question is about the Colgan Air Capt flying the Dash 8 on Autopilot in violation of the OEM and Cologan Ops Manuals.

But you already knew that of course and it seems you are out to make as big an ass out ofo yourself as possible - people don't complete the spelling of a word and you come out swinging - but when it comes to accepting an incomplete aircraft, you played Oliver Twist.

Please Vern, can I have some more?

airsafetyman said...

"..watching the turboprops fall behind and below us."

Or looking up at FL 410 and seeing the Piggiao P.180 Avanti turboprops blowing our doors off while truing out at 400 kts.

Ken Meyer said...

The Cold fish asks, Why only the low 30's Ken?"

The answer is simple. I'm an ATP. I fly a nice little jet. Unlike you, I guess.

And because I routinely fly a nice little jet, I had the opportunity to learn something about jet flight planning. You know what I found? (This may amaze you...)

I found that when you fly short flights, it doesn't make sense to climb forever. It turns out 31,000 feet is a good altitude for a 240 nm flight like the one I did 2 days ago.

You see, (and this may be a novel concept to a neophyte like you), it works out best to tailor your jet's altitude to the length of your flight.

Coldfish, you can learn something every day just by asking. Aren't you glad you asked?

Ken

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

The only difference between you and I Ken is that the planes I fly are all complete and fully functional (I have personal equipment minimums in addition to personal weather minimums).

Oh and I didn't treat my lovely wife like any other unsuspecting mark and talk her into squandering a chunk o' change on yet ANOTHER pipedream of mine by shilling for a company that was, at that point in time, CLEARLY not going to make it.

And lastly, I do not believe that a little money makes you a better or worse person than I am - you do that all on your own.

Dave Ivedorne said...

Coldfish, you can learn something every day just by asking.

For instance, today I learned that Ken has three middle names. I don't know what the names are, but I'm pretty sure that the initials are N, P, and D.

DI

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

And I noticed you cherry picked the questions again Ken.

Does your plane currently have the legal ability to operate at FL410?

Zed said...

Ken,

What's up with you outing folks like Flyger and Lemming (or trying to at least) and twisting DI's name?

You always implied that you were above that.

Guess that just like your flying, your blogging travels on the low road as well.

Looks like the disappointment is taking it's toll.

Remember that the AOG-500 service center has a key drop box. They may even provide a rental car for your drive home.

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

Don't worry about Ken, Zed - as ATM has pointed out Ken received the most reliable EA-500 ever built.

Probably as compensation for his endless and shameless shilling, call it a going away present from the Vernperor.

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

I wonder how that makes the guys with the repetitive AOG issues feel?

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

Or worse yet, the guys who are pot-committed based on Ken's able extolation of the virtues of Vern's Lame Jet.

GettingReady2FileSuit said...

Guys, lets leave Ken alone. It's only a matter of time before something happens that results in a "before further flight" AD on the FPJ with no solution as there is no company to create the solution.

Then his entire investment in the Ecorpse/FPJ/Conjet saga will be a bagel.

Zed said...

Getting Ready,

You may have identified the perfect solution.

If NPD is a reality, our completely ignoring him will be the worst scenario for him.

But just like BlastMaster, he will stomp off only to return within hours or days.

How long will it be until he blocks his N-number to hide when his airplane goes TU?

drillingahead said...

Ken, I know you love your a/c but you must have the most perfect plane to come off the line. I just returned from a trip in a friends Eclipse and I have flown right seat for 18 hrs in the plane. It is a joy to fly however the lack of nav equip. is a pain in the ___. Having to request intial headings to direct points is just a silly way to travel. I would not feel comfortable flying approaches in IMC. The audible alerts are screwy and too loud. The altitude alert sounds like a train whistle. Today we had an engine inlet heat fail, no windsheild heat on one side, selected altitude set for 29K suddenly changed to 24K uncommanded, autopilot disengauged twice in turbulence. In cruise the autopilot rocks the plane from left to right slowly. Kind of relaxing. All in a 2 1/2 hr. flight. The air conditioning system is weak at best and after opening the nose and seeing it I see why. Looks like two window units tied together. Other than that it is a real neat plane. Goes 362 true on 205# per side at 35K. They just need to finish it.

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

GR2FileSuit,

I appreciate the sentiment and attempt at peace.

Our friend Ken has played a special part in this passion play and has earned this criticism, in spades.

I suspect that Dante was right and that Brutus and Cassius will eventually have a new neighbor in the Ninth Ring of Hell.

But I'll leave it for now, surely someone else will have the last word.

Dave Ivedorne said...

How long will it be until he blocks his N-number to hide when his airplane goes TU?

I would propose that the ONLY reason he'd ever block is *if* the airplane goes TU/AOG. Being noticed means too much to him:

Narcissistic personality disorder symptoms may include:

* Believing that you're better than others
* Fantasizing about power, success and attractiveness
* Exaggerating your achievements or talents
* Expecting constant praise and admiration
* Believing that you're special
* Expecting others to go along with your ideas and plans
* Taking advantage of others
* Expressing disdain for those you feel are inferior
* Being jealous of others
* Believing that others are jealous of you
* Setting unrealistic goals
* Being easily hurt and rejected
* Having a fragile self-esteem
* Appearing as tough-minded or unemotional


Would you like the Super-Duper-Better-Than-Anybody-Else's Combo?
DI

epilot said...

No offense drilling, but how much time have you spent in transport category aircraft? The altitude alert is the standard C-chord.

Niner Zulu said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
bill e. goat said...

Commenting on the Dash 8 accident in the interest of promoting awareness...

I'm sure most have read that the autopilot was engaged. This seems to generally be considered the less preferred approach, as "subtle signs" can be missed if not felt in the control column. However, with ice building up on the windshield, it seems like there were some more than subtle signs.

I agree with Baron in part, that it was initially offputting to hear the head of the investigation downplaying the airplane's susceptibility to icing, but I also agree with CWMOR, that it was probably a bit more of a generic observation.

The ONE thing I would like to see an investigator do, when responding to reporters about terrorism and sabatoge, is just give them a blank look and say:
"Are you a F#@King Idiot?"

(Sorry, hope that doesn't break the blog's civility rule- but I just get SO tired of stupid reporters, asking the exact same patently tired, stupid question, over and over and over again.)
----------------------------------

Article on prior Dash 8 icing episode in Canada:

"Among four major ice-related recommendations by the NTSB in 1996 was a proposal to instruct pilots to use their pneumatic deicing systems early, instead of waiting for ice to form. Originally, pilots waited to use their pneumatic deicers until they saw ice form on the wings or on another part of the plane such as the windshield.

"The FAA has looked into the recommendations, but not adopted them. Canada's government adopted the suggested changes in 1999. The Dash 8's pilot manual also recommends turning on anti-icing equipment immediately, according to the Transportation Safety Board of Canada, which investigated a May 2005 flight in which a Dash 8 plane suddenly plunged 4,200 feet before its pilot regained control after 40 terrifying seconds".

Canadian Dash 8 Ice Episode, May 2005
----------------------------------

Well, this is how I started off with this afternoon's research. It's not great, but it was a good start, espec. regarding the ailerons on an ATR:

20 Nov 1994 David Lednicer
----------------------------------

Airlinesafety.com, Sept 2002
letter to the editor
Turboprop Icing
----------------------------------

"Unheeded Warning" (screw Amazon-, they monopolized the used book site Bibliofiind, now used books are "from $45" for a 13 year old book. Find it on Ebay instead eventually.

Unheeded Warning (book)
---------------------------------

Book mentions "old airfoils, 5-digit NACA series, (sharper leading edge) accumulate ice faster.

Well, this is more than you and I can absorb right now, but for future use:

How to read airfoil numbers

This IS a stunning accomplishment:
Airfoil Usage
---------------------------------

Nice Google book:
Small Transport Aircraft Technology
---------------------------------

Aileron Reversal at 10K ft due to wing icing
ATR crash Roselawn, Indiana
---------------------------------

"Actions Needed To Prevent Another Inflight Icing Tragedy"
(ah, from 1999...)
Air Safety Week; Feb 8, 1999
--------------------------------

I read several mentions of turbroprop icing problems being caused by a combination of unpowered flight controls, and a fixed leading edge. The unpowered flight control problem is related to "elevator snatch" and pilot PIO; the fixed leading edge- well, I'm not quite sure- in this case, it's cold soaked fuel causing condensation and icing during descent. Not sure how a movable leading edge (LEFlaps or slats) would help- but here's the article (from 15-21 Jan 1992 Flight International):
DC9 leading edge icing

drillingahead said...

epilot, none. I own a 1000 Commander and a CJ that I am typed in. Both have a chime at altitude alert. I fly myself and my family not the public.

eclipse_deep_throat said...

CWMoR said,
Please Vern, can I have some more?

LOL, I think you have hit the nail on the head with Wedge's marketing plan: $$$ per hour!! If they want more, they have to keep paying for it. It really IS a $1,000,000 plane ...but the rest is the WedgeSoft License Fee per hour... At the 100 hr mark, AvioNG tells the pilot - in flight - to insert $100 bills into a hidden slot under the keyboard. The only way they can get Hal/AvioNG to release the controls is for the co-pilot (Julie Hagerty) to "blow the auto pilot." Er, I mean Otto Pilot. She short circuits the state-of-the-art avionics with a bobby pin and they land in one piece. Wedge, in a rage, yells that "I would have been a billionaire if it wasn't for you pesky kids!!" Shaggy and Scooby-Doo are still shaking with fright having survived their first and last trip in an Eclipse 500...

As DI says, would you like to supersize your combo??

e.d.t.

Ken Meyer said...

drillingahead wrote, "Having to request intial headings to direct points is just a silly way to travel."

Yep, but you don't actually need to be doing that; it's an OWT. Regarding your other points--

I don't find flying approaches in the Eclipse a problem at all; it all depends on what you're used to, I suppose.

The audible alerts are indeed too loud. The FAA wanted them that loud; beats me why, but you get used to them.

No windshield heat--you're not supposed to have windshield heat at all; it's supposed to be collared.

The altitude preselect change--your friend's plane needs NG 1.3; that's one of the fixes in it; there are other nice fixes and improvements.

AP disconnect--yep; it does that sometimes, but in mine it is very seldom. I got an AP disconnect for the first time in about 6 weeks on the last flight, but the turbulence was bad. There is a fix for that coming.

362 knots on 205 pph per side--yep, pretty cool, eh? That's over 6.8 statute MPG, which is really good for that much speed.

Glad you liked it.

Ken

baron95 said...

DI, there is NO QUESTION that the US Helicopter ride is the way to go. It is actually about the same price, believe it or not, as a private car ride.

If the weather is nice (as in better than 1000 and 5), you can be treated to some nice views.

Incidentally, US Helicopter, hangers and operates out of my home field BDR - come fly to CT also ;)

baron95 said...

OH, DI, forgot to answer the last part of your question. US Helicopter is FIRST RATE, rally, I'd let them fly my 2 year old daughter alone, type of good.

Dave Ivedorne said...

Drillingahead's flight report made me smile. Reading, in order:

Today we had an engine inlet heat fail,
no windsheild heat on one side,
selected altitude set for 29K suddenly changed to 24K uncommanded,
autopilot disengauged twice in turbulence.
In cruise the autopilot rocks the plane from left to right slowly.
Kind of relaxing
...

...reminded me of the joke about the dog that ends, "answers to the name Lucky". To be fair, the post also provided all the needed elements for the First Official Eclipse haiku:

Kind of relaxing.
It's a real neat plane,
they just need to finish it.

DI

baron95 said...

DI, I'm a Marriott Platinum guy, so the Marriott Marquis at Times Sq is my preference. Nothing too fancy, but location is awesome - particularly if you are captive to a female and are forced to see a Broadway Show. Go see Mama Mia - it is awesome and score big points with the captors. ;)

(walking distance to the Marquis)

bill e. goat said...

Well, enough with all that mumbo jumbo big word stuff.

I'm a color picture guy.

What could be better than that !?!

Color movies, of course!

I'd come across the same good material as Luke (welcome if this is your first time posting!) and Baron, although perhaps through a different search path.

I first came across this other blog (you mean, other people beside us do it?). It appears to be a bunch of airline pilots, who treat each other with civility, politeness, and respect. (Needless to say, they are SO lame compared to us!!! :)

FLightLevel390 Blog

Be nice if you go there. But better not to- I don't think they'd survive. (I'm not sure how we survive sometimes !! ;)
----------------------------------

NASA video, 25 minutes, pretty good, same one Luke and Baron put up:
Tail Plane Icing
(Interesting discussion on ice "bridging" with boot cycles- and when to activate the boots- on hint of ice, or positive indications- seems like we discussed this topic on the blog a while back).

NASA video, 35 minutes, a little drier presentation, but some surprisingly good moments here and there (esp. 23:15 - 28:15)
Icing for Regional & Corporate Pilots
---------------------------------

What caught my eye (and ear), was the comment:

"roll upset and pitch upset are manifestations of the same phenomena- separated flow"

It sounded like the Continental Connection flight had both roll and pitch upset.

The scary thing is, the recovery techniques are exactly opposite:

ROLL PROBLEMS
(main wing iced):
a) push forward on the yoke
b) add power
c) lower flaps

PITCH PROBLEMS:
(horizontal tail iced):
a) pull back on the yoke
b) reduce power
c) raise flaps

YIKES!!
This made me realize what a difficult compromise aircraft design- and sometimes flying- is.

It also made me realize the significance of a T tail on a turboprop- besides getting beat up by prop wash, tailplane effective AOA is less influenced with flap extension.

Another design consideration is
"ac with thrust above cg nose down pitching moment with added power".

(This is probably a good thing- normally- after all, you wouldn't want it to pitch down with added power; but in an icing situation, trying to "power out" of a degrading situation could actually make things worse if tailplane icing is the culprit).
----------------------------------

"Supercooled Large Droplets (SCLD) are typically 3000 ft altitude band...on some aircraft, another indication of SCLD is ice on the side window".

(Presumably, ice accumulates on the windshield, supercooled or not, but only on the side windows when supercooled?)

"You must exit the SCLD condition immediately"
--------------------------------

We're all sorry that the crash happened; I think the crew were certainly adequate, and perhaps very good. Things could have been done, that would have -perhaps- resulted in a better outcome. Or maybe not.

As a "techie", I am distressed that the crew needed to distinguish control column buffet from airframe buffet with tactile feedback (hence the admonition against using autopilot in suspected icing), during the high workload of final- this is just blatantly unacceptable.

baron95 said...

CW, quite a while back, Beech published a set a minimum and recommended air speeds for flight into and after icing.

Some of the materials got presented in detail and a lot of discussion ensued in the American Bonanza Society.

I combined that, with a bunch of other serious books and NASA publication, opinions from 2 Baron ferry and freight pilots and my personal observation to arrive at my "general" procedures for approach/landing post contamination. When I have a bit of time, I'll attempt to post links here.

Please note that these procedures are Baron-specific and will not work for other plane types. For example, approaching much faster than Vref is not a big deal on the Baron (as when power is reduced there is a lot of prop drag and lift destruction). Try that on a clean jet and you will be doing perimeter fence inspection.

The consensus on the Baron in ice seems to be, avoid slow airspeeds (to avoid ice under the wings) and land no flaps, flying into the runway. Speed should be 1.4 x Vs1 or 10 kts above any airspeed where there is any much or lightness of the controls felt. Coupled autopilots in ice are a no-no for many. I may use autopilot above 1.5 Vs1, but will disengage occasionally to check for out of trim.

I am a big ice avoidance guy, so I don't have "a lot" of experience. I only launch with forecast ice if I know I can climb above and/or there is a good amount of warm air below the clouds to shed ice before final approach and landing.

I can only remember 2 landings where I thought there might be residual contamination on the tail (thinner airfoil than the fat Baron wings).

Other than that it has been brief ice pickup on climb and descent, followed by the ice sling fest on the fuselage.

bill e. goat said...

And, from the same cache of videos,
Mountain Flying (1975) 22 minutes:
Mountain Flying

And
Density altitude (1966) 29 minutes
Density Altitude
(This one is good to show to the fairer sex in your life- "why no, I let my husband do all the flying", etc.- might score some points!)
Andy by the way, I hate to disappoint you, but the "Joe Average" protagonist does NOT crash, although by the middle of the video, you are hoping he will, and in an area with lots of wolves and rattlesnakes. (Great soundtrack, with lots of ominous moments, worthy of a JAWS movie).

bill e. goat said...

And Fred,
Your English is fine!
("charming" sometimes, like my spelling!)
Anyone who gripes about it is a simple person, who want to think simple thoughts.

(...but I find it never hurts to use lots of color pictures... :)

Dave Ivedorne said...

Nothing too fancy, but location is awesome - particularly if you are captive to a female and are forced to see a Broadway Show.

The lovely Queen of the drive-thru is a corporate controller type - sneaking away for a few days this time of year would be grounds for execution, never mind dismissal. So I'll be an un-captive, and blissfully free from Broadway show obligations ( not that there would be any - a single-serving of Yoplait is vastly more cultured than all of the Ivedornes combined ). As for lodging, and not knowing any better, I couldn't ignore all the praise I found for the Roger Williams. Ergo, I'll just suffer with whatever their version of "garden terrace" room means. Thanks for the advice, Baron.

DI

fred said...

Kenny :

There is a fix for that coming.

would you please have the kindness of answering 2 questions ?

1°) your stated fix is SUPPOSED to come from where ?

2°) the said fix is developed with what money ?

you see , from far i believe that you haven't got a clear picture of the today situation ...

EAC +EA500 = fini , finished , finito , kaputt !

unless a group of depositors manage to convince the BK judge on the point that since RP is a dork , the "value" of the firm isn't 28M$ + "bet written on toilet paper" (the Notes , who could be stupid enough to trust now a paper from the Merry-Band?)

i say that to you kenny , off-course you may not see it fit for your wallet to consider it ...

but i sense that on such grounds (taking the most depositors+owners on your side , you could go to see the biggest creditors and tell them " no more promises , but we'll try to work in "better faith" [shouldn't be that difficult! as it never existed before ...IMO] ) th BK judge COULD BE inclined to "strip the banana" and to allow a minimum price of purchase AGAINST a valid forward-plan of keeping jobs in US and work-out the plot to the benefit of most ...!

after all , if she could be convinced by RP fluffy-stuff ... it shouldn't be that difficult !!

fred said...

Billy :

Anyone who gripes about it is a simple person, who want to think simple thoughts.

you see on this side of the pond , to say this ... is a bit like saying something about "intellectual capacities are seldom..."

it can be anyone opinion ... i respect it !

but , for the fun of it , let me remind you that the last time someone complicated had complicated thoughts ( which i avoid as much as i can , i agree ;-) ) ...

it has cost 2 or 3 Trillions to your nation ( but i wouldn't be surprised of it as being more , in reality ...! )

and XXX millions jobs ...

simple people having simple thoughts ... , sometime i feel better on knowing how to live on what nature provide us ...

off-course , it's no glamor , it's no high-techs ...

but no one can do simpler , that's why , may be , it last ...!! ;-)

fred said...

Baron

thanks for your comprehension ...!

as you found out sometimes , i am a bit lost between idioms ...
so when German is getting in conflict with French while i am writing in english about a russian subject = it's a bit confusing !

like between :
benefices is not benefits ...
security is not securite ...

just the way french should be spelled with accented letters is , itself, very confusing ...! ;-)

back to subject :

off-course , everything has to be relative ...
it shouldn't be itself a barrier to improvement BUT i feel just a little safer (may be wrongly?) when i can think that "They" didn't spare a dime on my "safety" when in a plane ...

that is merely what i was pointing out by " no cost-mgt in Safety-magt "

we have a perfect example with FPJ : because of some fantasies , they build-up something having so- many-opposite meaning , that it ended-up having no real-meaning

which itself induced a very unfinished act !

(FPJ has been been built for private-owners but developed for Air-taxi = trying to kill 2 birds with one stone is the best way to miss both ...!
but i fear this is already "Too-complicated" thoughts ...! ;-) )

fred said...

Dave ...

yes , i arrived to the same conclusion... (RP buying EAC with money intended for EAC , and therefor voiding need for BK ...!)

it is not very difficult to see that the BK Judge has lured into RP's BS by all his gesticulations and by the absence of others bidders ...

themselves pushed away by the very nature of this bankrupted-firm (taking over is at best an "act of faith" !)
and/or RP intimidation and Timing...

in one word : trying in the US to succeed where the Belgian BK told him (with the L&H story)

"not even in your dreams !!"

what artists they really are !

if they would have spent a tenth of the energy needed for such ...on making it happen , THEN the skies would be already darken by Fpj...

con-artists , you said ? yes! world-class !!!

Shane Price said...

Seems like Japans' economy has hit a 'perfect storm'. I expect that all of the major countries will report similar trends.

Not a great business environment right now. It looks like very bad timing for Roel and his merry crew.

Perhaps he'll be forced to abandon ship?

Shane

airtaximan said...

"OH, DI, forgot to answer the last part of your question. US Helicopter is FIRST RATE, rally, I'd let them fly my 2 year old daughter alone, type of good."

so Baron is a moron, and US Helicopter sucks...

he can't even spell "really"

airtaximan said...

"No windshield heat--you're not supposed to have windshield heat at all; it's supposed to be collared."

yeah, I hate that windshield heat stuff

fred said...

airtaxi ...

you are wrong , again ....;-)

the windshield-heater is not working on this iteration of FPJ ...

it surprise the first time , but then after you get used to it ...

isn't it , Kenny ? ;-))

airtaximan said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
airtaximan said...

dumb question... (Ken's going to love this, I'm admitting its a dumb question!)

Why on earth would they disable windshield heat?

Some might say, since you are not supposed to be flying in icing conditions... you do not need windshiled heat - but , why bother disabling it?

What if you need it?

Makes me think there's another reason, like it adversely affects the lamination of the windscreen... promotes cracking, or such...

I know, there are a lot of known issues, and why bring up more, that we do not know? So I admit, there's probably a good answer to this dumb question - anyone?

If you just say, its certified as part of FIKI, and is not legal until the FIKI package is installed... I just ask, again for safety reasons, why this was left aside and disabled?

I forget who, but someone has been asking about a barrier to FIKI in the ea50? Got me thinking there are issues we do not know of - anyone?

Ken Meyer said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
airtaximan said...

Ken,

I expected that answer... but my question stands.. WHY is this safety feature not certified? You can say its becasue it was part of the FIKI cert... my question is, why did they not get this feature certified, anyway? Its a safety feature, not only related to FIKI?

Also, I never accused you of uncollaring ECBs... I said you suggested to some folks, it can be done.

This has nothing to do with the current issue, I bring up. Why is EAC making its customers circumvent the regs to fly safer? Why do you need to uncollar ECBs to make a perfectly good system operable, and skirt the reg to fly safer?
This would be more in line with the issue?

Boy, if you think I am "one very disingenuous guy" for asking this simple question, you must be smoking-redass about EAC, RP, and the gang. Hitman-hiring, smoke- billowing mad-as-heck...

drillingahead said...

Airtaximan, on my Commander the windshield heat is required abpve 18k for structural reasons of the windshield itself. Nothing to with icing.

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

ATM,

Eclipse you may recall has had nothing but problems with all those experienced aviation vendors.

The transparencies at one time anyway came from Nordam - you know, a bunch of no talent hacks with no relevant experience who of course let Eclipse down with the cracking windshields.

They probably couldn't install the wiggle wire elements correctly and the windshields were probably warping.

I am sure that the Eclipse design was not to blame, must have been Nordam's fault.

Must have been.

insert roll-eye smiley here

Jackrabbit said...

MOSCOW (AP) -- Russia's super-rich are also super-losers in the financial crisis, according to the business magazine Finans, which said Monday the top 10 wealthiest Russians lost about two-thirds of their fortunes over the past year.

The magazine's annual list of Russia's richest shows them suffering breathtaking losses as the country faces its worst financial crisis in a decade. ...Oleg Deripaska, who had topped Finans' list in the previous two years, fell to eighth place after losing some 85 percent of his wealth -- down to $4.9 billion from $40 billion, Finans estimated.

Mikhail Prokhorov, the playboy metals and banking billionaire who sold his stake in mining company Norilsk Nickel early last year, moved up from seventh place to top the list with a fortune of $14.1 billion, down from $21.5 billion a year ago, the magazine said.

Roman Abramovich, owner of Britain's Chelsea Football Club and a stake in steelmaker Evraz, held on to second place. But his fortune, estimated last year at $23 billion, has shrunk to $13.9 billion.

Russia's stock markets lost 70 percent of their value last year, while the national currency has lost 35 percent since the summer. Aggressive geopolitical rhetoric and worsening corporate governance drove many investors away, while plunging prices for oil and metals underscored the fragility of Russia's eight-year oil-fueled boom.

airtaximan said...

I guess Ken deleated his response... Well, you can probably tell much of what it said, by reading my response to his...

Once again, the windshield heat would be a nice safety feature, even without FIKI... and it works properly, is installed and is collard, forced INOP.

I am wondering why?

bill e. goat said...

Drillingahead,
Interesting- if I'm correct, plastic expands when it gets cold, and aluminum shrinks. So heating your windshield makes it shrink, to match the aluminum structure?

Baron,
Thanks for the info on US Helo and accommodations in NYC.

Ken,
Thanks for the great pictures of AOA in various regimes of flight!

I apologize for not thanking you earlier! (I had meant to but got preoccupied with the Dash 8 icing research).

It's obvious you have been thoughtfully exploring the Eclipse's operating characteristics, and we appreciate you sharing with us the results.

MoveOn,
Welcome to the blog. I hope you "move" in January was to a good company somewhere of your choice.

I cannot imagine why any former employee would have resentment towards a customer- I think that was misdirected angst, and thought it not worthy of comment.

I would encourage that angst to be channeled into a more productive avenue by either contacting Shane with whatever issues he has concern with, or posting them anonymously from a public library or such, and getting the issue out. I have found that often that some topics which are posted, seem like "blockbuster" issues, but turn out to relatively benign, when evaluated by the many wise and experienced bloggers we are graced with here.

And it is a disservice to the aviation community, and one's own ethics; to be sitting on what you believe to be a safety issue, is just not right- to anybody. Get this off your chest by airing it, one way or another- don't sit on it- if it is a safety issue, the flying public needs to be aware of it, if it's not but you think it is, the blog is a good forum for resolving that internal conflict.

I welcome your participation, and think the more open you are with issues that concern you, the more insight, and less frustration, you will feel.

(I know I've sure got a school'n here- in the two years I've been reading the blog, it's been fascinating- there really is someone here, who can answer almost any question, be it finance, legal, air transportation, aircraft- and for long time industry observers, you'll realize just how intertwined those topics really are in the big picture).

Shane Price said...

Goat,

- there really is someone here, who can answer almost any question, be it finance, legal, air transportation, aircraft-

I'm hurt!

You failed to mention 'Guinness Quality Control Expert'.

Especially as I put in almost as much time on that subject as I do on the blog....

On a serious note, it's not just the Russians oligarchy who are financially 'bruised, battered and bewildered'. In the Euro Zone there is general deflation with negative growth rates of 4% to 12% predicted for this year.

A small note from the 'emerald isle'. Right up until about August last year the number of helicopters on the register was increasing at a compound rate per annum. Then, suddenly, exports off the register wiped out the 2008 imports and cut into the existing fleet. Already this year (and we are only in month two) there are even more net exports, and almost no orders.

I'm doing a little digging on 'jets' but with Ryanair so dominant it can be hard to see the wood from the trees.

For those of you who are not familiar with European 'low cost' carriers, the current boss at Ryanair learned his stuff with Southwest.

So, although the company has bases all round Europe, the fleet is registered here in Ireland. At last count they were Boeing's second largest customer worldwide for 737-800's.

I agree with your suggestion to Movedon about safety issues with the FPJ. Anyone who has concerns can contact me via the email address below. Rest assured that 'we' have been able to keep complete confidence with those who've contacted the blog. Just ask Wedge, who ended up fired a few months after trying (and failing) in court.

eclipsecriticng@gmail.com

Shane

Ken Meyer said...

AT--the ECBs are collared because that's what the FAA says you have to do until the required testing is accomplished.

However, the company's own test pilots as well as several owners have reported that the equipment actually works fine. And that is verified by the icing certification which did not require any changes to the windshield heaters, boots, or other key elements of the factory icing equipment on NG planes.

Ken

airtaximan said...

is there a court deadline for RP to show with money and close?

is there a current objection filed?

is there a lawsuit against the company officers or such, forthcoming?

fred said...

oooh , guys ...

just had a look on "Controller"

there is more mustangs than Fpj , now ...

still i have found something strange :

Deliv October '08. ALL EUROPE & WORLDWIDE EQUIP: NG+GARMINS+FIKI+DME+ADF+DIVERSITY XPNDRS+TAWS+TCAS. 50% BONUS DEPR!

Detailed Description
You can fly this fantastic new Single Pilot Jet in November 2008! Buy this position for much less than a new order to Eclipse, which would not be delivered until 2010! The buyer can select the exterior trim colors. This plane is LOADED, with the finest LX interior package and has ALL avionics options with AVIO-NG, GARMIN 400'S, FLIGHT INTO KNOWN ICEING, DUAL DIVERSITY TRANSPONDERS, ADF AND DME. Can be flown anywhere in the world, including Europe! - Commercial Operations Package (Part 135 & co-pilot pkgs) - Dual Diversity Mode S transponders (for EASA) - DME and ADF - Skywatch HP traffic - Class B TAWS terrain awareness - Pulsed taxi and recog lights - Installation kit. Total selected options $165,000. SUITABLE FOR EUROPEAN OPERATIONS! It has all aerodynamic performance improvements; 5995 lbs max take off weight. THIS AIRCRAFT IS UNDER CONTRACT AND THE ECLIPSE INVOICE IS FIXED. The cost to you of the base aircraft will be only $1,930,000, and with options, $2,095,000. Already paid to Eclipse is the $150,000 deposit paid with original order and the ("60%") progress payment The balance due to Eclipse at delivery will be $572,801. These numbers include the options. 1. Payable to seller at transfer: $1,522,199. The payment to the seller will be made into escrow, to be released to the seller against the receipt by the escrow agent (Insured Aircraft Title Service) of the following documents signed by the seller: a. The Eclipse Purchase Agreement Assignment signed by the buyer, signed and notarized by the seller, and signed by Eclipse, and b. the Escrow Agreement, signed by the buyer and the seller. 2. Payable to Eclipse Aviation at aircraft delivery: $572,801. This is a great buy because it is fully equipped including international operations. The value of your aircraft will rise! The Eclipse company price $2.315,000 dollars with this equipment plus CPI adjustment from June 2008 up to delivery! aircraft.



i don't know about you ?
for me , i would call it "stinking rat's deed" ...

it is sold by EclipseJets (RP already ?)

out of any consideration of the BK !!!

and , ready for International ops !!
that's probably the most funny part of the joke ...

who would be stupid enough to give so much money ... for the pleasure of NOT getting a plane ?

please someone to call the Police ! ;-)

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

"...the company's own test pilots as well as several owners have reported that the equipment actually works fine"

Speaks for itself - I would say that the Eclipse training is NOT installing good ADM skills.

airtaximan said...

Ken, I guess the meds kicked in?

Seriously, I know this. Check my post... I expect this answer.

The questionis, WHY did EAC not obtain the use of the windshield heat in the normal course of Cert?

I do not think its a big deal, all things considered to have it cert for use - and its a safety item.

It's OK, if you don't know... and its probably not a big deal... just curious, IF anyone knows, why they would chose NOT to have the system operable, when it works fine.

Sometimes, its OK to say, "you know what, they probably could have included the system in the pre-FIKI cert, its a good safety feature, works really well (according to some reports I've read from pilots whose names I cannot recall"

;)

Kidding about the meds... sometimes I look back on some posts and think I could have used some myself, before posting!

fred said...

jack

i personally know a guy in Moscow who has seen his personal wealth dropping of 97%...

funnily the guy in question is in the same field as D.Bolotin (the president of Etrick )...

the ferrari = gone !
the 2500M² datcha = to be sold ...
the diamonds of Mrs = seems much smaller , now

bill e. goat said...

Shane,
My dang new flat keyboard mistyped a sentence above, and should have read:

"contacting Shane with whatever issues you (MoveOn) have concern with..."

(BTW, if you spend as much time over Guinness and over the blog, well, I want to own stock in your local pub !! :)

I'm working my way backward (some would say, so what's new about that!)- the headline post on this thread really is a marvelous read- I think that is one of the longest and most comprehensive "headlines" that we've had- sincere thanks from all of us for the effort that went in to that fine work.

Have a pint to celebrate!
---------------------------------

(As a cultural icon, perhaps some don't remember "Billy Beer". I wonder if we will ever have "Wedge Beer"- flat, smelly, and bitter?

And delivered only half full -or half empty:)- and late, and overpriced.

(And gives you a headache! BillyBeer and WedgeAle- both better off forgotten!?! Let's hope RP-Lite is a better "brew" !! :)

Billy Beer

bill e. goat said...

ATM,
I think the coffee has kicked in too !!
(You seem a bit wound up this morning- wish I had that much energy and "enthusiasm" on a Monday morning! .)

TBMs_R_Us said...

Shane,

You used the word "deflation" to describe the recession in Europe. This probably isn't correct (could be). Deflation describes specifically the condition of the amount of currency in circulation declining, a shrinking of the money supply. A recession, negative growth if you will, is not the same thing as deflation, and may or may not have deflation taking place. In the US, there is a recession, and simultaneously there is inflation (growth in the money supply). Dollars are becoming less valuable, at the same time that fewer of them are being spent. Double whammy!

The government in the US (Europe also?) likes to mislead the public about inflation. Inflation is not caused by price increases of goods and services, rather it is caused by government manipulation of the money supply, which in turn causes prices to increase. In the US, the government actively lies about the rate of inflation, making it appear to be considerably lower than it actually is. For example, the US government talks about "core inflation", which excludes food and energy. So if food and energy prices go up (which they do), we don't count that in the government published numbers for inflation. Neat trick, since they get away with it. Now in the US, the Federal Reserve Bank (who directly causes inflation) no longer even publishes the data about the size of the money supply (which would be a total give away about actual inflation), and instead keeps it secret.

I'm certain that Europe is experiencing a recession, but I doubt that it is experiencing deflation. Are goods and services getting cheaper? Has the price of a pint of Guinness gone down recently?

bill e. goat said...

"Chealander said the plane's (Cash 8) deicing system was turned on 11 minutes after it took off from Newark, N.J., and stayed on for the entire flight. Indicator lights showed the system appeared to be working.

"He said the pilot was being "very conservative" by turning it on so soon".

De-ice systems turned on 11 minutes into flight

This addresses a question I had, regarding the boot operation. There might be some re-evaluation of the ice-bridging topic- although I wonder how a failed boot would behave (probably, there is a loss-of-boot-pressure annunciation?)

Ken Meyer said...

AT, your question was asked and answered.

Ken

fred said...

Tbm ...

very good !

even if most of times inflation is constituted by a growing monetary mass ...
and deflation the contraction of the said mass ...

the results that can be seen by most (interested , off-course ) is either the price going up or prices going down ... which itself leads to prices falling ...
as described in the "Laspalles theorics " ...

recession is a shrinking of GNP ...
(technically most most Govt want at least 6 months for declaring it)

recession can be with inflation (technically speaking what USA had in the last "few" months ... with the helps of "neat" statistics ...)

then it is called a stagflation ( where at the best the growth is null)

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

The answer that Ken is unable or unwilling to provide to ATM's question is that EAC did not or could not seek approval of the windshield heat separate from FIKI.

Did not or could not really does not matter, it is rank incompetence regardless which it is.

Did not means they did not think about windshield heat separate from FIKI - stupid given condensation and other issues common from cold-soak at altitude and then descending into humid climes - although defrost from ECS might be adequate here.

Could not would stem from EAC choosing to include windshield heat control/operation in the 'total integration' of Avio and then Avio NfG. Even though the system works fine according to pilots who have operated it illegally, it cannot be used separate from FIKI.

Again, either way it speaks volumes about why EAC has failed in terms of Avio, Avio NfG and FIKI.

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

Forgot the third alternative.

The Eclipse design for the structural transparencies and the laminated plastic nature of the windshield with a wiggle wire heating element in it might be subject to warping if windshield heat is used more than the light use associated with FIKI.

fred said...

tbm

a trick to remember that i give to students sometimes :

inflation = too much money for not enough product

deflation = too many product for not enough money ..

and to your comment :

Europe is having a recession ...
USA is experiencing a deflation ...

which is much worse , because there isn't too many things to be done about ... as very often it is not only the "natural correction" following a cycle ...
but the result(s) of a cycle's end + what should have happened in past (USA is good example) + structural need of income-layers ... ( +Debts ; -real income = this )

Ken Meyer said...

Wet Fish--you really don't know what you're talking about, but somehow that never stops you from opining. Your 3 reasons:

1. Condensation--nope, the plane has a very nice dehumid/defog cycle. You missed on that one.

2. Part of Avio--of course, but that has nothing to do with why it is supposed to be collared.

3. Might be subject to warping if used more than just occasionally in icing--you're on a roll; the FAA-approved checklist for FIKI EA500's calls for the windshield to be on whenever an engine is running or a GPU is connected. Similar thing in many other jets.

Ken

airtaximan said...

seems like #3 Ken, would be only occasionally... right? Unless you meant to say once you have a FIKI plane (as opposed to flying in FIKI), whenever an engine is on, you need to have the windshield heat on. Can't be.

I just don't seem to get it though... a perfectly functioning system, providing what could be a level of safety, inop, for no reason other than it was only cert under the FIKI cert, as part of the cert strategy...

Someone else?

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

Ken, you really should try actually reading what people write, considering it, and THEN formulating a reply. I know exactly what I am talking about, and you also know exactly what I am talking about which is why it hurts so much and why you try so hard.

I gave possible reasons and even specifically mentioned the ECS for defog, but you have never let what someone actually wrote get in the way of trying, and failing, to demean others. But at least your are consistent.

The ECB is collared because that is the closest thing to the way things are deactivated in a more conventional plane you dolt. In other words, the FAA does not trust Avio to do it on its' own.

EAC lacked the foresight or understanding to separate windshield heat from FIKI, and because of Avio they have to force you and everyone else to 'collar' the ECB to lock it out.

I know how difficult it has been and remains for you to separate what 'might be' from what it 'is'.

The fact remains that the windshield heat needs to be deactivated because EAC did not separate it from FIKI - which is downright stupid.

And, for the question you keep ducking, can you legally fly at FL410 right now?

Without being able to fly at FL410, does your plane meet the range spec in your contract?

How about the equipment and functionality spec? Does your plane have FMS? Fully functioning autopilot? FIKI?

How about your direct cost of operations - gone up exclusive of fuel?

Face it, you were promised a 'virtual co-pilot' and you ended up with an actual Sam I Am.

And for the record, I apologize for how I characterized you treating your wife as just another unsuspecting mark re: the now lost deposit on the CON-Jet - it takes a special kind to include family in a Ponzi scheme.

bill e. goat said...

Drillingahead,
I got to thinking about my idea regarding the structural necessity of windshield heat for your Commander (Goat:"plastic expands when it gets cold, and aluminum shrinks. So heating your windshield makes it shrink, to match the aluminum structure?").

Okay, but how about the side windows? (maybe I'm off the mark, and windshield heat keeps the plastic flexible enough to withstand a bird strike or something like that?)

Thanks!

EclipsePilotOMSIV said...

Wetfish,

You are indeed an ass. We get it the plane is limited to 37 k feet for the time being. Either you are a real life "Sam" and don't remeber all that hoopla. Or you just want to get Ken to say it so you can gloat to all your blogettes about how you got Ken to say something we all already know. Go back to the tool factory big guy.

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

Omsiv,

You and I know that the EA-500 is limited to FL370 due to AD 2008-24-07, however to hear Ken endlessly drone on, he has the best light jet money can buy. Maybe HIS money, but not money in general.

There are significant limitations for the preemie jet, many of which are not related to the 5 Airworthiness Directives it has been the subject of in its' short history.

Many result from the fact that Eclipse NEVER delivered a complete aircraft, and that many people, yourself included, agreed to accept an incomplete product. It is your money dude, if you were willing to accept crap that is your choice.

But our friend Ken has done yeoman's work getting as many more people lined up for the scam as humanly possible.

He has come on to this blog and praised Vern and the company ad nauseum until even he couldn't take it anymore, then the new mantra began, 'sure the company sucks but the plane is great'.

And throughout, Ken would take many of the same concerns and arguments that he vehemently denied here at the Critics blog, and then adopt them as his own over at the Victims' blog.

We all know that the new mantra will only last until Ken experiences the same kind of debilitating AOG situations many others have suffered through, such as EA500s.

If that is being an ass, then I am guilty as charged - but I think we all know who the ass really is.

The 363 sale is now weeks behind schedule and is in danger of collapsing IMO. Parts flow will very soon dry up and even the Cardinal's remarkably reliable example (truly a statistical anomoly) will be relegated to providing shade for tumbleweeds somewhere, the only service these planes are truly safe for.

cybit said...

Question though,

What good would FL410 do? You would end up burning more fuel to get to that altitude then you would save from staying up there. The flights aren't long enough to justify cruise-climb up to 41k.

Also, if the FAA takes as long to sign off on E500 stuff as long as it does for Boeing/Airbus documentation, I see why nothing ever gets certified. Nothing like fixing typos taking a minimum of 90 days to signed off on.

Ken Meyer said...

Preemie jet...blah blah blah...five ADs...blah blah blah...Cardinal Ken...blah blah blah.

My goodness, when you don't have a clue what you're talking about, you certainly do like to fall back on your usual gobbledegook spiel.

Too boring. Come on, humor us. It's a holiday. Say something that isn't quite so stupid and boring.

Ken

Ken Meyer said...

AT wrote "Unless you meant to say once you have a FIKI plane (as opposed to flying in FIKI), whenever an engine is on, you need to have the windshield heat on. Can't be."

Why not? Lot of planes keep the windshield heat on all the time. It increases pliability and reduces the ramifications of bird-strikes.

In a FIKI-certified Eclipse, the windshield heat comes on when an engine is on or a GPU is connected. You can override it with a button press if you want.

Ken

bill e. goat said...

I have a pet rock.

Black Tulip said...

B.E.G.,

As a Commander 1000 owner I can clarify the use of electric windshield heat. There may be structural benefits. The A-Number-One reason for use above 18,000 feet is so you can see where you are going. The windshields are glass with much higher thermal conductivity than plastic. When it’s fifty below zero or so outside, the windows are cooled below the dewpoint of the cabin air on the inside. The cabin occupants are exhaling moisture which condenses and then freezes on the windshield. A defog blower assists with the task but windshield heat keeps them fully clear. A band of frost around the heated portion is typical during cruise at the flight levels. This melts on descent into warmer outside air. During the In-Range check my wife reaches into the right-side pocket, produces a conveniently stored dry wash cloth and wipes the droplets from the windshields. Side cockpit windows are kept clear by a little bleed air extracted from the foot warmer duct.

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

You know Ken, if you and people like you had insisted on receiving a complete and fully functional aircraft in exchange for your hard earned cash, instead of bending over and taking an incomplete, partially functional, kluge of a plane, the other critics and I would have nothing to talk about.

I'll bet you're the kind of guy that sends meals back to the kitchen when out with your lovely wife when it does not meet your expectation.

We have already seen how it upsets you when words are not spelled correctly or grammar rules are bent.

So how is it that the Eclipse gets off so lightly with you?

Is it that the schitoma is unshakable?

Is it that admitting the issues would make you look like the tool some beleive you to be?

Or is it that you recognized early on the likelihood of failure, and you saw an opportunity to cash in on the speculative nature of the game, and your expectations were, therefore, always appropriately low?

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

Oh, I mispelled 'believe' above, obviously I cannot be trusted.

TBMs_R_Us said...

CWM,

The back and forth with Ken has become much less than interesting. He's not very interesting to begin with, but you've taken it to a new low.

BEG,

What color is your pet rock?


Ken,

You said the "new company" should be given a chance. What new company?

Zed said...

Goat wrote ... Ken, Thanks for the great pictures of AOA in various regimes of flight!

To be precise, the AvioNG PFD is not displaying AOA, it is displaying Pitch Attitude.

Note that Ken used the "ANU" annotation on his post ... which I assume he means "Attitude Nose Up".

Granted, a higher pitch attitude and a slower indicated airspeed will result in a different angle of attack ... but AOA is not directly displayed.

bill e. goat said...

Hi BT,
Thanks for the explanation of the windshield icing on Commanders.

(It appears my understanding was some what "fogged up":)

TBMs_R_Us,
It's a smokey, blackened, charred brick.

I got it from the Eclipse Gift Shop.

Zed,
Correct, but Ken kindly (more than) addressed my curiosity about "deck angle in cruise flight".

cybit said...

Also, CWMOR, you fly out of SEA-TAC a fair amount you say...you wouldn't by chance happen to also live in the area, would you?

baron95 said...

I did not read all the posts (yet) on the REASONS FOR THE WINDSHIELD HEAT AND OTHER DE-ICE/ANTI-ICE COMPONENTS HAVING THEIR ECB COLLARED, but...

I think ATM and CW are correct, and I didn't read a clear answer from Ken.

If these systems "work" and cause "have no adverse effect" on the airplane, they could have been part of the basic plane's certification, EVEN IF THEIR FIKI EFFECTIVENESS HASN'T BEEN DEMONSTRATED.

This is similar to many planes that have boots and TKS and are not FIKI certified, or planes that are delivered FIKI-ready but prior to FIKI certification.

Those planes are placarded or have AFM limitations against FIKI, yet the (non hazard) de-ice/anti-ice equipment can be legally used.

Why isn't the the de-ice/anti-ice equipment in the EA500 certified on a non-hazard basis IS A GOOD QUESTION.

And, as CW, posted, there are two general answers:

A - Eclipse never tried to demonstrate that they cause no-harm (no-hazard) to the plane's operation i.e. didn't bother to test it.

or

B - Eclipse tested it and Eclipse or the FAA found that it presents a hazard or has an adverse effect on the plane and can't be used until modified.

I too would like to know the answer to this question.

It is very odd the Eclipse and the FAA prevent pilots to use systems that ARE THERE and COULD ENHANCE SAFETY ON AN INADVERTENT ICING ENCOUNTER.

What is the answer?

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

cybit, I do not live in the area, I am in and out as a result of my consulting. I do like it up there though.

TBM, I agree, on all counts.

cybit said...

aww, there goes us grabbing a beer tonight. Let me know if you're ever in town though, we can go grab a pint o' guiness (sp?)

Shadow said...

Alright, who hacked into Baron's account and posted his latest response? Or is Baron just taking his meds again?

airtaximan said...

"Why not? Lot of planes keep the windshield heat on all the time. It increases pliability and reduces the ramifications of bird-strikes."

OK, not related to FIKI, yet, not cert, and collared inop. Hmm...

OK, then why on earth would you fly your plane without it - if it was designed for this safety purpose, why was it not cert, and why is it collarded and off if it works fine?

c'mon.

I asked an innocent question, about a safety system that works perfectly, but is not cert and is collared OFF... and we get THIS?

Something smells really fishy, and its not CWMR...

BTW, I remind you, there were systems certified as working properly/perfectly on the EA50, that did not in fact work properly. It would appear that the windshield heat should be able to be certified, ESPECIALLY since as you say, there are non-FIKI safety benefits to it?

AND

it would not make me comfortable knowing that they omitted/couldn't certify this system, for SOME UNKNOWN reason.

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

Baron, my bet is Eclipse did not think about it as an indpendent system and only included the functionality as part of FIKI.

FAA is averse to inclusion of what they call 'dead' code in airborne avionics, so even though the ECB and power distribution are there, and the windshields are hooked up, the control logarithm is probably tied to FIKI, so no windshield heat with FIKI.

If there were no Avio, and the circuit was self-regulating (switch, thermistor, cb, etc.), it would have been no issue.

If I had to guess.

cybit, maybe we'll try next time I am out that way, March/April timeframe.

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

Sorry, meant to say no windshield heat without FIKI.

Ken Meyer said...

Baron--Eclipse elected not to test the icing equipment under the "no-hazard" provisions. Just a guess, but I'll bet they thought it wouldn't take so long to get the FIKI approval.

Since the icing equipment on non-FIKI NG planes is the same as that on FIKI NG planes (i.e. not swapped out for something else, just supplemented with a couple of minor items) you can infer that the equipment, when tested, was found to present no hazard.

The wet fish was wrong when he wrote, "so even though the ECB and power distribution are there, and the windshields are hooked up, the control logarithm is probably tied to FIKI, so no windshield heat with[out] FIKI." The code is in the non-FIKI Avio versions just as it is in the FIKI versions and works in each. The only thing stopping those windshields from heating properly are collared ECBs; the windshields work fine when the ECBs are uncollared (I've tested them many times--on the ground of course).

Ken

baron95 said...

TBM, re your inflation/deflation post....

1 - The US gov does publish both core as well as total consumer and producer indexes. So the data is there.

2 - It is NOT correct that price increases are directly related to money supply. For example in 2007 and first half of 2008 the run up in oil, commodities and food prices created very high inflation, even though the money supply was probably not growing very fast. In the second half of 2008 and early 2009, there was widespread deflation of energy, food, commodities as well as assets (renal estate, etc) even though the Fed was doing all it could to pump up the money supply.

Inflation in the US economy is very much supply/demand driven and IS VERY LOCALIZED by geography and sector. For example prices of consumer electronics, clothing, cars (adjusted for content) have been falling forever, while health care and education had been increasing at a fast clip forever (because there is no effective competition in those sectors). Similarly, real estate has typically simultaneously inflated (e.g. Florida, CA in the 2000s) while deflating in the mid-west.

The issue is that the FED is usually out of sync. In 07 and early 08, the FED saw the CLEARLY UNSUSTAINABLE run up in commodities, food and energy and said "lets get money out of the economy and raise rates". They did that just as consumers were reaching the limits on their ability to spend and pulled back big time causing the current financial crisis which is 100% due to collapse in consumer demand and ability to service debt (e.g. mortgages).

And the Fed can pump as much money as they want now. It won't make a bit of difference. Until the ability of consumers to buy and service the post-correction debt, nothing will move.

Don't mess with the American consumer. If you do, you'll pay a heavy price.

baron95 said...

OMG - the lead NTSB investigator is squirming trying to explain and stand by his remarks that the Dash 8 is not susceptible to icing when the investigation is focusing on icing and other investigators have made statements about that and the whole briefing is about altitude of icing, recovering the deicing valves, etc, etc.

What an embarrassment - get this guy out of there.

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

Curiouser and curiouser.

That really makes no sense then Ken - and in this case I am not picking on you - it literally makes no sense.

If the controls work (live code in Avio for temperature regulation), deactivating the system by 'pulling' the ECB if not FIKI certified makes no sense.

If the code is tied to FIKI though, then FAA has allowed essentially 'dead' or inop code which is very, very unusual.

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

Just typing out loud here....

I suppose, in the mad rush to descope Avio in order to get something that could be certified so planes could start shipping ASAP, EAC might have decided to remove the testing necessary to show compliance for the windshield heat - no test, no report, no report submittal, no back and forth with FAA. That almost makes sense and would have been a legitimate business decision given the circumstances at EAC leading up to the provisional TC stunt at OSH.

But FAA would have made anybody else remove the code controlling it if an integrated system like EAC uses.

Maybe EAC made the argument that FIKI cert was imminent and therefore the ECB was an acceptable 'short term' approach - but FIKI took another what, 20 months?

Still, very strange.

Dave said...

Curiouser and curiouser.

That really makes no sense then Ken - and in this case I am not picking on you - it literally makes no sense.


That's what happens when you look more than 6" deep.

Dave said...

Maybe EAC made the argument that FIKI cert was imminent and therefore the ECB was an acceptable 'short term' approach - but FIKI took another what, 20 months?

Seeing how the FAA would be the one doing the certifying, they'd know how close Eclipse was.

mountainhigh said...

Excerpts from Brian Birk re the Chp 11, in report to: Private Equity Investment Advisory Committee: December 10, 2008 [NM SIC]

Amazing spin [just excerpted the best ones] ....

"Mr. Birk said the company is continuing operations as normal, and there are no planned layoffs."

"Mr. Birk stated that the stalking-horse bid has well over $100 million in new financing associated with it, and the hope is that it will bring the company to a cash flow breakeven point."

"Mr. Bland noted that the SIC first went into this with a cram-down on the valuation, and now the SIC is back to that valuation at this point. He asked if the SIC would recover anything on this investment.

Mr. Birk responded that he thought so. He said clearly the senior secured notes portion of the investment will have some significant recovery. He stated that he was very pessimistic about recovery for the equity."

"Mr. Birk responded that the recession has clearly dampened all markets associated with private jets, but the flip side is that the acquisition costs and operating costs of the Eclipse are still significantly more favorable than its nearest competitor; additionally, because their contracts are locked in, the customer base hasn’t eroded at all."

"Mr. Bland asked if there is a potential IRR on this investment given a two-year recession and assuming the company gets the $150 million in operating capital, etc., and Mr. Birk responded that there is a strong belief that there is investment potential. He added that, while the SIC has heard this on at least three previous occasions, certain things have happened this time around that raise the probability.

Mr. Birk said the first is that the Eclipse 500 received IASA certification, which is the European equivalent of FAA certification, which opens up a whole new market to the 500 and for air taxi types of services. He said the IASA certification also opens up Asian certifications, which opens up the Asian market. He stated that the business could double or triple its backlog."

"[re process improvements] He said it would remain to be seen how those various changes would manifest when they go from producing 250 planes to 500 planes a year."

- - -

It was a lengthy discussion. Hey, with advisors like B. Birk ... no need to ever take off the rose colored glasses.

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

Can any of our owners say whether the boots can be operated on non-FIKI planes? On the ground of course.

baron95 said...

Ken, I accept that EAC chose not to demonstrate the systems under no-hazard. With boots you have to do a whole series of control/stall with boots inflating, etc. And if they thought FIKI would follow that winter, fine.

But it is still a curious decision. Any good certification team would have flagged the possibility of FIKI delays and pushed for a no-hazard cert of the de-icing equipment. Customers would welcome that and feel much safer knowing that equipment "likely to meet FIKI certification requirements" could be used in the interim for inadvertent icing encounters.

And once FIKI got delayed and requires mods, why didn't Eclipse move to included the equip on the TC as non-hazard? That would go a long way towards improving cust sat and owner piece of mind.

Anyway. What is done is done. But it is a really odd choice and ATM's question is extremely valid.

But now there are more important matters at hand.

Lets see if there is any way that RP can get the money to close the 363 and get EclipseJet started.

I was hopeful on that, but now I am really doubting this avenue can work.

Not looking good now.

FreedomsJamtarts said...

I know picking the raisin from the Bland an Birk's presentation is like picking the raisens from sheep dung ( Look there is so many big juicy ones), but this one really blows my BS meter:

He said the IASA [sic] certification also opens up Asian certifications, which opens up the Asian market.

What the hell has Asia got to do with EASA certification?

With a few exceptions (The Ex british colonies, like Oz, which still have old BCAR's British based rules) almost all of Asia have adopted FAA style rule systems, (eg, JAPAN, Korea, Taiwan, NZ) or have there own flavour. In all cases they will do their own validation of the FAA TC, and not even consider the EASA TC.

Gadfly. These idiots are running wild with your tax dollar.

FreedomsJamtarts said...

Baron wrote Any good certification team would have flagged the possibility of FIKI delays and pushed for a no-hazard cert of the de-icing equipment.

I think I have spotted the flaw in your post.

Dave said...

It was a lengthy discussion

It was an insane discussion. It must have been fueled by reds, Hi-C and cocaine. These guys are talking about putting in even more money into Eclipse[Jet], say the order book will be back around 2000+ and Eclipse[Jet] will manufacture 500 units per year. I'm surprised the taxpayers let this excuse for fiscal management of their money continue.

Dave said...

Is this true about the DayJet fleet?:
Mr. Birk reported that Day Jet also recently filed for bankruptcy. He stated that, while two years ago the company had excellent operating metrics, they made the fatal flaw of dramatically ramping up their capacity without customer volume to support it. He said the jets were consigned to Eclipse, which has sold all of them at close to the list price, which is a good indicator.

airtaximan said...

just a little aside,

I have usually focused on the bog picture, scraching my head for years, trying to figure out how in heaven's sake EAC would ever make and or sell many, many $1 - $1.5 million jets.

I tell ya, the devil is in the details, and things like this windshield heat "detail" would really worry me.

All the proposed/supposed answers, really either makes no sense from a safety perspective, or cross-cross logic like there's no tomorrow.

The system works perfectly
The system is NOT tied to FIKI
The system was not certified until FIKI
The system cannot really be used without breaking a reg and screwing with the electrical system

WHAT?

Anyhow, thanks for the consideration - I really thought it was just a lame question, with a good answer. Turns out its a lame issue, with no real answer, and only "trust me, they did it for a good reason"... once again.

I simply do nott rust these guys, so perhaps someone knows something?

Zed said...

CWMOR,

The code is not inop or dead. It is functioning -- having set the heaters in the OFF position.

My read is that the windshield heat issues were tied to the old transparency problems, and it was planned to fix those when the jet was in for boots, etc.

Folks are just living with a limitation that should have been cleared by now.

airtaximan said...

Zed,

so somehow, the heat exacerbated the problem of the windows cracking?

airtaximan said...

Zed,

"The code is not inop or dead. It is functioning -- having set the heaters in the OFF position."

pls explain, this makes no sense... the code would leave it up to the pilot... switch on or off.

If they did not cert this system, then by definition the code would need to be dead, or you would have code that is not certified, within a system that is, only protected by ECBs. Some idiot might actually... oh forget it.

I don't think so.

TBMs_R_Us said...

Baron,

What is no longer published is the M3 money supply data (which is what my post said had you read it for content as opposed to something you could disagree with). Gone, and now secret. The inflation and GDP data are published, and very manipulated to the point of being a lie. GDP is distorted by imputations, hedonics, etc., and further distorted by being corrected to "real GDP" by distorted inflation numbers. I'm not talking about regional or sub-economy specific numbers, but national numbers. Ask yourself (if you on your meds) just why the Fed would not want us to know the money supply numbers?

BTW, you said recently that this was no more than an 18 month correction. Dream on cowboy! Gonna be longer / worse than that!

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

ATM, it just shows to go ya that there really are no dumb questions, only dumb answers.

bill e. goat said...

ATM,
1) We know the knowns,
2) We don't know the unknowns.
3) Leaving the breaker out eliminates item 2.

Zed said...

ATM,

The EFIS code (in this instance) is for switching and display, and can be easily certified.

More sophisticated control logic may of may not be included in the load ... and it might actually reside in the ACS.

I cannot recall if the ACS controlled boot rise, dwell, etc., or if anything in the Windshield Heat logic needed to be modified with FIKI.

The collared ECB is simply the most expeditious means to InOp the system, probably the result of a FMEA.

Thoughts?

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

Doubt it would FMEA related Zed.

I am of the opinion that it is a software issue.

As we have been given to understand, Avio is the ONLY intelligence allowed on the Eclipse, either Avio makes it happen, or it does not happen.

That means lines of code to turn on the heat element when commanded via softkey or specific conditions like Ken mentioned (for FIKI certified anyway), to regulate temp, to monitor for overtemp, to provide timing if needed, and to shut off when commanded via specific conditions or softkey.

If the code is only approved as part of the FIKI cert, then it is, if installed, dead code by definition (even though it works) - unless the softkey still works which would be unacceptable for any other OEM.

It would be very unusual for FAA to allow dead code (read that unapproved).

This is actually the primary challenge related to design of an integrated avionics system - it severely complicates the approval process, because a change or tweak to one minor item has to be tested for impact to the rest of the load.

And that may have been the logic used by EAC to justify the ECB solution (we can't meet our schedule if we have to retest everything after removing that code, besides, we'll have FIKI in a couple months - tops).

Given the reported management bonus issue at FAA re: EAC certification - I think I can see how that happened, but I believe it would not have happened anywhere else.

airtaximan said...

cw,

how long have you known me?

;)

Shane Price said...

TBMS-R-US,

Yes, the pint is cheaper. Yes, prices are falling (housing, food, clothing, all fuels etc) along with some other classic deflation signs. Rapidly increasing unemployment, falling exports, tax revenue in the cellar, emigration on the way up, you name it, we got it.

I'm reminded of the last time this place really hit the rock (mid '70s'). Some wag put a poster up on the road to Shannon Airport (the only departure point for America then) which read like this:-

"Would the last person leaving the country please turn off the lights."

That sort of deflation.

Shadow,

You get my vote for 'comment of the day'. Your reward? The Blog Standard Award of one pint of Guinness, in a REAL Irish pub, should you ever manage to visit this (very lovely) part of the world.

Shane
PS Silence on the Russian Front. That's ominous.....

Zed said...

CMOR,

Yes, since "AvioNG" encompasses most systems on the airplane, the issue resides within AvioNG.

But since you are using the phrase "by definition", you may want to look up the definitions and procedures for "dead code" and "deactivated code" in DO-178.

Like you, I doubt that dead code exists in NG 1.x, but I would bet you one of Shane's Guinness that there is deactivated code.

The cert process has a number of methods to address deactivated code, including FMEA if that is part of your overall engineering processes.

Was that ... "There are no dumb answers, just dumb follow up statements" ?

airtaximan said...

folks, my sense is, EAC never thought of windshield heat beyond FIKI, for safety.

Its nice to see Ken and some others recognize its value... but at EAC, it was just a FIKI system.

And so, it remained uncert until FIKI, for no good reason, except an oversight and lack of real concern for safety.

Annyhow, that's my conclusion after the input so far.

We all know, the EA50 is not susceptible to ice... its not even allowed in ice.

Sorry, bad joke, but it reveals a lot.

We can get bogged down in details, if we like... but reality is, I would not risk myself or family or frieds or passengers, in this plane. Many unknown unknowns we can all guess about.

Simple answer... foretells a lot, IMO.

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

No Zed, a good clarification. 1309 and 178 define the process and for the record, I don't believe windshield heat to be hazardous - I am just very confused that the operating code for windshield heat would be present in Avio but not certified. The cert plan and report for that would, it seems, be very straightforward.

If it was thought to be an issue with the earlier design that cracked, then it should not have been present as deactivated code, it should have been removed.

And of course the limitation should have gone away completely when the transparency was redesigned (if it was in fact redesigned - maybe the trained people to put them in right).

Points to serious issues with requirements definition re: DO-178 processes, or a major disconnect on hardware configuration management IMO. What is a PSAC anyway? ;^)

I would not expect EAC to have a FMEA or FMECA that accurately defined the problem in the first place - I don't think anybody fully understands Avio even today.

And frankly, with all the management interference evidenced everywhere else at EAC I would be surprised if the FMEA matched the SSA.

airtaximan said...

zed,

all in all an unfair stement towards CW.

Failure Modes Analysis as a reason for collaring a fully operational safety system, does not compute.

I took CW's rendition to ring true - that dead or uncertified code exists within AVIONG. How else could they have certified the system, with a known component required to be turned off?

The only other xplanantion is, they founf the system to be unsafe, and required ECB collaring to make sure no one would operate the plane in unsafe conditions, which as Ken aptly points out, many people know how to do, know that it woks, thus, they have undoubtedly done it. The FAA ain't that stupid...

Anyhow, we fdo not know, CW does not know, and we admit this. If you have a better answer (maybe you do and I missed the point) provide it. FMEA makes me squirm... it means the system is a potential failure mode???

People are using it..

Some consider it safer than not using it...

and the FAA says you cannot use it, becasue of failure modes in the opinion of some.

Seems like we really have no clue, except that Ken says it works perfectly, and has instructed some how to bypass the OFF collared ECBs.

I am truely troubled. Not surprised, mind you - just troubled.

I hope my spelling is OK on this post.

gadfly said...

FreedomsJamtarts

We used to call those raisins, “Smart Pills” . . . take one or two and a person gets “smart” in a hurry.

And speaking of tax dollars . . . with our politicians running berserk, we’ll all be in fat city with no more taxes . . . there won’t be any business left to “tax”.

gadfly

(For a moment . . . when I logged onto the blog site, I thought I’d walked into a “pre-school food-fight” . . . but then I realized it was just business as usual . . . critics and die-hards . . . the “idle rich” with nothing better to do, until the little bird factory finally goes belly up.)

airtaximan said...

"If it was thought to be an issue with the earlier design that cracked, then it should not have been present as deactivated code, it should have been removed."


OK, so they certified quickly cracking windows, and perhaps the aindshield heat system exaccerbated this problem.

So, what do you remove? The windows, the avio code or the heater?

;)

I am such a simple guy....

airtaximan said...

Gad,

you of all people should be amused by my fishing expedition today...

Isaiah 44:9 Those who fashion a graven image are all of them futile, and their precious things are of no profit; even their own witnesses fail to see or know, so that they will be put to shame.

Dave said...

Getting back to the SICk report, why is Birk so insistent that there wont be other factories when the terms of the financing to buy Eclipse requires other factories? Also, what is Birk being paid to do such horrible due diligence?

airtaximan said...

Dave the Birk report is so ful of BS one can only conclude he will one day be in jail... and be done with it.

Its like arguing with a midget who insists they are 7ft3in.

Why bother.

I have no clue who this guy is, but I will tell you something... he is going to jail one day.

gadfly said...

airtaximan

One of my grandfathers would sometimes “miss-use” Scripture, especially when in a battle with the graduate engineers (and in the end, he always won):

Psalm 37:7b “. . . fret not thyself because of him who prospereth in his way, because of the man who bringeth wicked devices to pass.”

gadfly

(And, no . . . he died three decades before the “Eclipse”. But his “tooling” continues to calibrate certain critical aircraft test equipment that is used throughout the world. ‘Funny thing . . . he built that original test device in Glendale, California, in the late 1940's, as a temporary thing . . . until a “fancier” unit could be designed and built. ‘Last time I checked, the company had moved twice, and moved that “temporary” calibration machine each time . . . and it was in daily service last time I checked in the 1990's.)

Dave said...

I have no clue who this guy is, but I will tell you something... he is going to jail one day.

Hopefully not the only one as apparently he's being told stuff by Eclipse that makes no sense. Who told him that Eclipse moving to a new facility has been abandoned and would be re-evaluated in two or three years? Also who is feeding him that Eclipse will ramp up to production to even more than it was before? Also he says that the senior secured noteholders stand to get 40 cents on the dollar.

I do agree with him about needing around $150M+ to operate, but there's no reason for Eclipse to be in sold off in BK if the Russian deal actually goes through as that amount of money was meant for Eclipse. I'm surprised that Roel was so flagrant in what he was doing - I guess he thought nobody would have time to investigate. The company probably needed Chapter 11 because the Russian money was slow in coming, but that same money shouldn't be used by the CEO of Eclipse to have the BK court erase the deal the CEO's company did with Eclipse and to then use Eclipse's [temporary] salvation as instead a means of buying Eclipse.

Now that I've read the backstory via the Bradley filings, it would seem like there would be a pretty strong case against Roel to merit a criminal investigation given his fiduciary duties and the conflict of interest. I can't say that there'd be any criminal prosecution or if there was that Roel was be found guilty, but now that I have the additional details, Roel signed a deal with Eclipse to pay Eclipse royalties (which was publicly touted by Eclipse as their means of salvation) and then he put Eclipse into BK (which is itself fine and I agree with) but along with that in the BK filing sought to cancel the royalty payment to Eclipse and instead use that money for himself. Not remotely something the CEO and Chairman of a company should be doing as Eclipse would otherwise be saved (per Eclipse's claims and I believe it is in Roel's EclipseJet claims that the money would take Eclipse to success) but for the self-dealing of the CEO.

I think Roel himself was foolish to take the LOI to mean that the Russian deal was a done deal and I doubt it will go through, but if it does, Roel/ETIRC should pay Eclipse the millions of dollars he agreed to. I just don't think the deal will happen.

I'm not familiar with the CEO of a company doing something like this and as such I think Roel should be taken to the woodshed. I don't think the BK judge realized what contracts Roel was trying to nullify. Including the nullified contract between Eclipse and ETIRC, there's no reason for the 363 sale. The Russian payments (if they ever happen) should be a trigger to emerge from BK instead of a trigger for the sale of assets to the CEO's own company.

airtaximan said...

check the blog a few months ago - this is precisely what bothered me about the 363.

RP buying EAC with money that was arranged FOR EAC while he was running it.

Dave said...

check the blog a few months ago - this is precisely what bothered me about the 363.

RP buying EAC with money that was arranged FOR EAC while he was running it.


It had bothered me too, just I didn't have the specifics of it until now. Now it's in black and white and it can be tied to BK filing document by document. The CEO's behavior seems worse than any of the high profile criminal CEO's that have gone to prison. Roel's company is supposed to pay Elcipse a royalty and it is just so blatantly wrong to use the payments due Eclipse to buy Eclipse. I know many CEO's and management have made plays to buy the companies they run, but I've never heard of anything like this. No wonder Roel is AWoL - if I was him, I'd worry about being placed under arrest if I landed on US soil.

It's a good thing Roel was so arrogant about where he was at with the Russian deal or else he'd be able to get away with it. With the deal falling through, I have some hope for there being justice. One of the filings by Eclipse/ETIRC/EclipseJet basically blew off the claims of bad faith by saying there was no time to prove bad faith...well, now it looks like there's going to be plenty of time to prove that and other things.

Dave Ivedorne said...

From ATM: this is precisely what bothered me about the 363.

RP buying EAC with money that was arranged FOR EAC while he was running it.


From Dave: It had bothered me too, just I didn't have the specifics of it until now.

I may have mentioned something about it at the time as well - I certainly noticed the appearance of it being the case. Here's the flaw associated with all of our noticing & being bothered: no actual misconduct occurred until the money changed hands. And it still hasn't changed hands.

While it's possible that the intent was there, I think the likelihood is greater that RP's intent was simply to use the appearance that the Russian money would be available to attract other investment to pay for the 363 sale. Whereupon the Russian money could then be re-apportioned ( on the up-and-up ) to Newco, Wedgeco-liability-free. Two years ago, it might have worked. Might.

It's a sleazy way to operate, but par for the course in the alternate reality that is "Bankruptcy As A Business Model".

DI

Dave said...

Here's the flaw associated with all of our noticing & being bothered: no actual misconduct occurred until the money changed hands.

I think actual misconduct happened when Roel filed to buy Eclipse, if not months earlier when he became CEO of Eclipse. Some additional misconduct also with having Eclipse use the same lawyers that ETIRC used and massive stonewalling with the discovery, which impeded other bidders.

Zed said...

CWMOR & ATM,

Let's just agree to agree. We both understand the process. The nuances are irrelevant at that level.

Something in the chain is either missing, incomplete, removed, or fenced.

There are too many differences between the various delivery configs to track without a Mensa membership ... switch panels, boxes, processors, software, etc. ... all by different vendors, cert teams, ACOs, etc.

The collar was probably an easy restriction to molify a risk averse FAA inspector.

bill e. goat said...

Shane,
"Japan's heavy dependence on exports..."
Boy, I wish the USA had that problem...

bill e. goat said...

Gadfly,
I don't care how many "idle rich" come by here- I'm just hoping it doesn't become the habitation of "idle poor" !

(I don't think our owner friends are very idle though- but maybe a little addled* :)
----------------------------------

*as in- Confused
Addled
Well. Hmmmm.
I don't think I've ever come across a word like this, that does seem to have two completely unrelated meanings (confused versus rotten). This is a perplexing anomaly (I hope); maybe Fred or Baron have a linguistic explanation for my...addledness ??
Thanks !
:)

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

Happy Birthday to the NG Blog!!

gadfly said...

News of the day . . . “a French submarine and a British submarine collide”.

Where have I heard of that before? . . . Oh yeh . . . well maybe not “two” submarines. But when it happened the second time, I slept through the incident . . . and we hit something on the surface . . . whatever it was, it belonged to Russia . . . and one of our two periscopes was bent over at the “shears”, and another bend in the “skinny part” near the top . . . although, it now pointed down over the side, toward the saddle tanks. Over fifty years later, a couple of us still can’t agree on what we hit. I think it was a Russian fisherman . . . my friend thinks it was “ice” . . . or maybe we were “Floating Into Known Icebergs” (FIKI). But we limped a few thousand miles back to “Pearl”, entered the channel at night . . . tied up at “TenTen” dock, had the bent periscope “pulled”, and “capped” (‘sounds like we had dental work) . . . returned to sea, and came in the next day as if nothing had happened.

A year earlier, something hit our “snorkel intake mast” . . . and we had the pleasure of being repaired in Japan . . . by then, our very good friends. That was about the time I was flying across the Pacific, returning after emergency leave, when my Dad died.

It is my firm opinion that in both cases, “we” had the right-of-way . . . even though we were well within Russian traffic, and inside their “ports”. Oh well, time wounds all heals.

gadfly

bill e. goat said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
bill e. goat said...

Zed,
"The collar was probably an easy restriction to molify a risk averse FAA inspector."

Thank goodness.
That discussion was getting a little addled !!
(take your pick on the definition :)

But, I was impressed with (and educated by) the familiarity with the certification process demonstrated by the participants!!

baron95 said...

So, does Roel have a shot of coming up with the money or not?

That is the only thing that matters now. All else is blogacademic.

baron95 said...

TBM, this is way off topic, but the Fed stopped publishing the M3 because it became meaningless and useless.

50 years ago the M3 closely related to the "money" available to the us population. By the 21st century, cash and bank deposits were but a tiny fraction of the "money" available to consumers as money market accounts, globally accepted credit-cards, personal lines of credit, securitized mortgages, brokerage accounts with check-writing privileges and the like became common place.

There is no conspiracy here. Just one more financial measure that became irrelevant with the increasing diversity and sophistication of the financial systems.

Look at yourself. What percentage of your buying power is the cash on your wallet and the money that you have on a straight bank/savings account (without borrowing facilities attached)?

I'd doubt if it is even 5%.

bill e. goat said...

Hi Shane,
I believe you pointed out the anniversary was coming up, and CWMOR astutely notes:
Happy Birthday to Eclipse Aviation Critic NG
!!!
First Thread of EACritic-NG, Feb 16, 2008

As Gadfly points out,
"Put on the kettle, and this will seem like home in no time."

Thanks Shane !!

(And Thanks to Stan and Gunner too!!)

Dave Ivedorne said...

So, does Roel have a shot of coming up with the money or not?

Stranger things have happened, but no - he doesn't.

bill e. goat said...

Hmmmm,
"I don't think our owner friends are very idle though- but maybe a little addled*"
*Confused

Hey, I just realized, that's my attempt at "zinger of the day" !!

But, I must say, besides being impossibly clever, it is also, alas, inaccurate.

(Shucks...and it was such a good zinger...)

I am very grateful for the participation (and patience*!!) of our owner friends.

(*Although dealing with Eclipse Corp. has no doubt nurtured that virtue).

!! Did I just say "Eclipse Corp." and "virtue" in the same sentence !!

(Hey, did that one count?? :)

bill e. goat said...

Dave I.
Best laugh of the day !!
:)

(And by the way, I like your pithy concluding zingers. I find the variety, and aptness, endlessly enthralling. I have been trying to discern a pattern, to formulate a hypothesis on their origin, but so far, this remains an unsolved mystery, very much a work in progress, ah- I am talking about D.I.'s zingers, not the EA-500 here- so please don't stop!! (The same goes for Eclipse !!)

bill e. goat said...

(It is worth going back to the original post and checking BricklinNG's comments, one year ago:

BricklinNG:

"The little airplane is pretty good for a 5 seat small jet, provided that the electronics and FIKI get worked out, which I believe they will. Then, ATM, I would agree that the market is to sell maybe 200 or so per year in the range of $2.2 million. They will not sell by the thousands at $1.7 million; Dayjet is the harbinger of the supposed new transport industry using these jets; Dayjet has been underwhelming so far.

"So the ultimate business will be to make them for around $2 million and sell them for a bit more. With luck the margin might be $400,000 but assume 200 units with a margin of $200,000 gives a cash flow of $40 million per year. At a 10x multiple, the right to make and sell the jets is worth $400 million. Of course Eclipse, the company, is not worth this much because it has enormous debt plus contracts to retrofit 100 jets plus contracts to deliver hundreds of jets for $1.5 million or so when it costs $2 million to make them. So Eclipse the company is probably worth zero.

"In the end, some reputable company will pay $400 million to a receiver take the type certificate and tooling, put a reputable and honest face on the jet and start selling 200 a year against the Meridian, Mustang and whatever else is in the space at the time (Diamond? Cirrus?) The new owner will need the vendors so he will diminish his $400 million payment to the receiver by an amount necessary to keep the vendors in the game. Other creditors, including deposit holders and airplane owners needing retrofits will be dealt with by the trustee, not the new company. The new company will come up with the price for the airplane and the price for the retrofit. If the trustee thinks that the depositors' and owners' claims are superior to lenders, they may get some money to pay the new company so they get airplanes or retrofits. If their claims are inferior, they will get zilch.

"This is one person's opinion on the denouement. Oh, don't count on European sales to raise the volume and partially rescue the situation. EASA certification will be so long delayed that it will not be a part of the picture."

Well, that guy's pretty smart...

Eclipse Aviation Critic NG, Feb 16, 2008

FlightCenter said...

I had heard that the windshield problems were at least in part caused by Eclipse's design of the windshield heat system.

IIRC, Eclipse ignored the recommendations of the windshield manufacturer when it came to implementing the correct duty cycle for the windshield heat system.

I had heard that in an effort reduce scope, Eclipse initially choose a duty cycle of 100% (always on) on the theory that the more windshield heat the better.

It didn't take all that long to ruin a windshield with the original windshield heat system.

Crazed was the term, IIRC.

Ken Meyer said...

Very endearing story except that the embedded windshield heat strips of early aircraft--those with Avidyne Avio--couldn't be turned on at all.

The bogometer is pegged.

Ken

Dave Ivedorne said...

Crazed was the term, IIRC.

craze \'kraz\ vb [ ME crasen to crush, craze, of Scand origin; akin to OSw krasa to crush ] ... 2: to produce minute cracks on the surface or glaze of 3: to make insane or as if insane ...

Sounds like we may have a combo here already,
DI

Dave said...

So, does Roel have a shot of coming up with the money or not?

That is the only thing that matters now. All else is blogacademic.


Actually it isn't "blogacademic" because much of what I said is repeating what is in court documents. It was my reading the court documents that got me talking about it. If - and that's a big if - he does come up with the money, I think it would be a big issue...actually if he does come up with the money the Bradley group is already challenging it and if he doesn't, everyone else could come in. This matter seems anything but academic.

fred said...

dave , once again , i arrived to the same conclusion ...

with money (the most UNlikely) : it will be challenged (at best...) or it will be like a pigsty as to who can try to get hold of the money ...!

without Money : Chap.7 and (probably justice scope to examine the shamble ) no more Firm , no more BUG-FIX for Kenny (who has not answered the question " from where the Bug-Fix is SUPPOSED to come ?"

now it give a whole different flavor on the WHY Roel isn't anymore in USA ... ;-)

fred said...

Baron ...

i really disagree very much on your reasons to stop publishing the M3 data ...

the bloated reason : it is useless ...

the real reason : How to make peoples forget about all downturns , expensive wars and amount of poop accumulated by a Govt ?

simple make peoples think (and only think = nothing real into that !) Eternal Richness has arrived with no other reason that because it is "Them"

The M3 , in the case of USA , need to be explained :

at the end of WW2 , USA was the only "Free Western " country to be able to produce without having to reconstruct all its industry before ....

so the "Bretton woods" took place to institute the $ as world-exchange-money ...
basically speaking "N$=oz.Au" ; any country using $ could exchange it against gold at demand ...

since Gold CANNOT be printed , the value of $ WAS NOT in the "hands and wishes" of the politicos ...

Roosevelt forbade the private of gold at end of the 1929 because he needed something to "back-up" the flow of newly-printed bills he was going to put into circulation ...

When Nixon had not enough for the Vietnam-War , he had to choose between : make an unpopular war becoming even more unpopular by sucking out a little more $ from US citizens ...

or

cut the link with Gold to increase the "$ production", which he did , because he was a good politician ... (someone to be trusted with parsimony ...)

the cost of War did seems to be a little offset (only illusion)

but lead to "crazy inflation" thereafter ... (fixed by Mr Paulson with very high interests rates ....)

so the others Nations using $ accepted for 2 reasons :
*to be defended against communism
*in the CONDITION to know what was the supply of $ printed and circulated ...

then few years later , a new situation happened :

after the Internet-bubble collapse , a middle recession should have occur ...
the president of that time , newly elected , couldn't or didn't want to be blamed for this recession ...
then the 9/11 happen , putting even more pressure to this "natural need" for economic correction ( no politics into this , only economics facts !!)

and more important : how to tell to the middle-class who had seen in the 10 (or so) a decline in their real earnings : "we are going to spend your great-grand-son future tax today ...for entertaining the Empire-styled nature of our nation ...."

what is the best way of NOT saying lies ?

Answer : NOT say anything !

so , without saying anything print $ like a mad and stop publishing M3 data because " it make no sens ...only a tool of a forgotten past ..."

this is where "The American Pride" has been inflated so much ... = anyone saying " what are they trying to do ?" was therefor Anti-American ... like it could be so-easy ... the white-dressed are the good , all others are the bad !

Results : so many paper to be detained as pure-gold ...so many to think "we are rich" ... so many funds for insanities as this EAC ...

until one day Reality strikes back ...
and everybody find-out that paper-money or paper-value if not correlated with something REAL remain of paper-value ...!

THAT is the real reason of stopping M3 data publication ... even if it is much less glorious ...
but an explanation of the "Subprime" which is a big monetary-creation based on nothing , to buy houses that cost nothing in reality of what they have been paid for ... and bought by peoples which had nothing as chances to succeed paying back ...!

Why do i write this ?

not to piss-off you or any one living in USA ...

only because i like your country , and just do not understand why most CANNOT UNDERSTAND : they are worth so much more than those economics stunts ....

baron95 said...

A bit more on icing and Colgan...

Apparently, the manufacturer of the Dash 8 - Q400, a plane that "is not really susceptible to icing", saw it fit to include in the airframe manual several recommendations to "deal with icing conditions" including:

- The autopilot be disengaged in severe icing conditions.

- A reference speed switch be activated to increase all targets speeds by 20 KTS with icing on the airframe.

- Landing with flaps 15 vs 45 with icing on the airframe.

But hey, Q400 is really not susceptible to icing, so the crew must have imagined the "significant icing on the wings and windshield" they observed and the above didn't apply.

baron95 said...

At least according to the Lead NTSB Investigator, that is. He already knows that the "Q400 is not susceptible to icing" and that "it was not a bad weather day" in Buffalo.

Despite all the manufacturers recommendations for special procedures in icing and the crew observations and concerns.

NTSB already knows that icing and weather were not really significant.

baron95 said...

Fred. Your facts are very wrong [sorry, I'll be like Ken and claim lack of time to explain].

The most wrong of your facts is to think that Americans know or care about what M3 is.

The few that do, think it is a fine performing compact sports sedan.

And the Gold standard was abandoned because it was a useless, stupid and unworkable idea.

The price of gold can go up and down (and does) based among other things how hard South Africans want to dig.

To peg the currency of a country with a $13T GDP to whims of a gold miner is silly, ridiculous, idiotic.

Let the free market set the price of the US$. Either way, you don't have a choice. Want to transact business with the largest economy and market on the planet? It has to be in US$. Don't like it? Don't sell.

Next.

fred said...

yes , baron , Us citizen do not care about what is M3 ...

like anyone on earth , they want "Panem & Circenses"

exactly like in the Roman Empire ...
so no need to say "this is a left-over from past ...and has became useless " as past seems to be still quite valid to me ...

as for the need of $

sorry i do not agree !

it could be valid IF USA could remain the biggest buyer ...

but then , since you love so much anything imported , to pay for it = you will need an ever-growing mass of $ to keep the same level of buying ...
(with the Trillions of new $ which are going to be released ...)

there is NOTHING that push foreigners to sell at a fixed value expressed in $
so , they will ask for more and more $
leading to Hyper-inflation after deflation ...
which is probably the worst scenario ...

this is WHERE it could be a good idea for US citizens to think before consuming !!!

and may be stop to think about themselves as the ONLY ones ...or the wake-up is going to be even worse ...!

fred said...

i forgot , sorry

Please , baron , do not put yourself in "Kenny Mode" ...

USA is not anymore the biggest market ...
take the Bric's , they are and they have the purchasing-power to do so ...

FreedomsJamtarts said...

That SIC report looks like they used Monty Python as training videos.

Bland and Blick wanted to be the Black knight. Although there is a good dose of Parrot sketch in there also.

Elcipse Insolvent? No their not. Their just resting.

Bankrupt? Only a flesh wound.

Come back and fight like a man, I'll bite your legs off.

The missed Monty Pythons correct summary of Ecorpse though.

This parrot wouldn't go Voom if you put four million volts though it.

fred said...

freedom ... you made my day ...!!;-)

to complete your post , an other "master piece" from Monty Pythons :

Life's a piece of shit
When you look at it
Life's a laugh and death's a joke, it's true.
You'll see it's all a show
Keep 'em laughing as you go
Just remember that the last laugh is on you.

FreedomsJamtarts said...

Hi Fred,

There is little about this whole sordid like tale that doesn't somehow remind me of a Python sketch.

The witch burning in the Holy grail was used by the Wedge as inspration for his business model, and by some engineers for system design.

substitute witch for "Plane sold at a loss":

What do you do with a witch?
- Burn 'er

What else burns?
- More witches!

What else floats?
- very small stones?

eclipse_deep_throat said...

Baron said,
And the Gold standard was abandoned because it was a useless, stupid and unworkable idea.

Well, gosh Baron. Let's just get you to be the Wizard of Oz and you can run the entire system. How on earth do we know what 'they' are doing when they can hide behind everything they manipulate??? It's funny to hear Obama talk about "transparancy" yet later we see the market tank when we don't get it; at least the stock market has some rational expectations!!

I'm also reminded of the movie Sneakers, specifically the scene where Robert Redford is chatting with his old friend, Ben Kingsley, regarding how easy it is to mess with global currency markets, crash corporations and small countries. Both Bob's character, and myself, learned a whole lot about economics thanks to that movie. It is, after all, the perception of reality that matters ...not actual Reality with a capital R. Someone smarter than me could write a modern take on Plato's Allegory of the Cave realted to this subject. Money is not really paper money anymore but just abstract ones and zeros ....somewhere.... and we have no idea where they come from nor how "new" money is created. We are just occasionally **allowed** to see its shadow like that stupid rodent in PA each year. Except now it is going to be 8 more years of Obama's interpretation of Kant's Categorial Imperative and what must be done to "save" the US economy. The paternalism will never end: today it will be GM getting another $4 BILLION from Uncle Sam!! Now I know the error of my ways since I should have found a way to work for GM instead of Eclipse. We have passed thru the 'looking glass' into that nebulous world of Govt Rationalizations. Despite the BS of how we SAY we don't want centralized production decisions by Govt bureaucrats aka Communism ....we have this bastardized Mixed Economy where corporate jets are demonized and Chevy Volts are pure and virginal. Who the hell made that decision? It sure wasn't the market, eh? Christ, I even VOTED for the guy!! But relax, we've got nothing to worry about since the Govt doesn't really "own" AIG, Bank of America, CitiGroup, GM, Ford, Chrysler ...yet Obama is looking towards the 2010 elections too. He can't afford to let this get worse, so they ALL become 'too big to fail' and Wards of The State while Adam Smith is spinning in his grave.

The Gold Standard may not work perfectly today - but how on earth do We The People control deficit spending when the Govt uses a "fiat" currency? This has been a sham for the last 30+ years. Only NOW do I see how supply-side economics works. And it only works when we have tons of guns and butter for everyone ....and Full Employment for everyone to afford the hyper-consumption the supply-side econ requires. I see that the State of Cali may layoff 20,000 state employees if the budget doesn't pass. So will it matter that Wal-Mart shelves are fully stocked in CA if 20K less people have the $$$ to buy their stuff? This downward spiral will affect how biz spends on inventory and labor too. But are you really going to take the position that MORE deficit spending is the solution when the Govt has NO INTENTION of ever paying back the $10-11 Trillion in debt we owe now??? It may make sense in the Ivory Towers of academia why Govts finance debt forever ...since paying only the interest **appears** to save the taxpayers money. But there are other "externalities" that must be considered, IMO.

Keynesian economics fails over the long-term because each time we prime the pump, we act on the FICTION that it will be just for a limited time. Each time we have to stimulate the economy, we are like junkies addicted to our fix of cash and consumption, like a binge and purge diet. Each time it takes more and more $$$ to get the rats to take the bait. But just like Ronald Reagan's rationalization that we needed to outspend the Soviet Union to win the cold war, the surge in Govt Spending is NEVER followed by spending cuts 3-5 years later, at least not since the end of WWII. Once they get into office, they never want to see limited government imposed on their administration, hence, that is why I think we need even a partial Gold Standard. OR admit that the Federal Reserve isn't independent, reset and permanently FIX interest rates to 5-6%, and admit that we have to raise the marginal tax rate to 40% or so on EVERYONE while cutting 100,000 Federal jobs. The banks need some way to make money in good times and in bad times ...and people need to some 'disincentive' to keep asking the Govt for more cradle-to-grave services. I vote for eliminating the US Post Office as the first way we can save a few billion each year...

Baron, consider this another way: do you think the Govt will cough up $5K/month for my Social Security benefits if/when I get to retire??? The M1, M2, M3, all of that are red herrings. Their actions today are bound to be inflationary EVENTUALLY. Would you agree with me on just that one point? And that might be in the year 2044, if I'm lucky to retire in that year when I'm 72yrs old. But hopefully I'll figure out how to counterfeit the damn binary ones and zeros by then and pay off my mortgage with some new money!!! Or else I may have to relinquish my US citizenship and try to emigrate to one of those cushy European countries in my old age...
;-)

e.d.t.

fred said...

let's share with our friends a good explanation of Wedge's Bizz Plan ...

if you are careful , you will see the crowd of admirers ....

http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x53rp4_shes-a-witch_fun

fred said...

EDT :

are you an economist ?

you are right ! what Baron doesn't seems to get :

paper-money MAY survive and work ...

but ONLY IF EVERYBODY play the game with the rules ...

is it the case ?

bill e. goat said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
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