Wednesday, October 15, 2008

Darkening skies in Albuquerque

Eclipse Aviation, under it's previous 'leadership', boasted that thousands of FPJ's would darken the skies. With production down to one aircraft a week and falling, this boast seems yet another EAC failed promise.

But there is more.

Customers are frustrated.
Not only have EAC failed to produce aircraft at the rate they said themselves was required for the plan to work, they are LOSING customers, some of whom now 'enjoy' the status of unsecured creditors. These are the people who have requested deposit and/or progress payment refunds after the price increase in August. As far as I can tell, only those who had money in the Frankenjet (a.k.a E400) have had cash back from Roel. As a group these people are mad at EAC and have joined forces to seek the refund they are entitled to. One of them sent Mike McConnell (President of all that Peg is NOT President of) an email last week, seeking answers to specific questions. So far, he has not had the good grace to reply. Herewith the list:-

Mike,
1. It was reported that Eclipse had issue a certain amount of refund checks and those checks were not honored by the bank. Has Eclipse made good on those checks?
2. How many depositors have had their money refunded?
3. Have there been any concessions to those seeking refunds? Partial refund? Aircraft at reduced prices? Etc?
4. What intellectual rights have been transferred, assigned, pledged to ETIRC during the last 12 months?
5. If a cash infusion does not occur within 30/60/90 days what contingency plans does Eclipse have? How long can you operate?
6. Recent releases on “Russian Funding” have been non-cohesive. What is the amount? Have any funds been received? What contingencies are attached to the Russian funding? When is Eclipse “US” expected to receive these funds?
7. Eclipse stated that a majority of vendors are in place to resume production. Yet at least one major vendor (empennage) has closed the facility that manufactures the empennage. How do you plan on handling critical vendors that are no longer willing to provide products to Eclipse?
8. Other than harming the secondary marketplace what financial interest does Eclipse have in the ex-Dayjet fleet?
9. A number of depositors are talking about forcing involuntary bankruptcy. Does Eclipse have contingency plans if this occurs?
10. How many 60% progress payments has Eclipse collected above serial number 266?

Pretty heavy stuff, especially from a customer, I think you will agree. A lot of us would like to know the answers to some of these questions. If anyone 'out there' would like to share their views in confidence, email me at eclipsecriticng@gmail.com

Staff have doubts
The internal sources on the 505 continue to contradict the public utterances of Mike, Peg and Roel. As is normal in any business, especially one that it trying to restructure, cash is king. Let's examine the 'traditional' sources of EAC funding. Sales of aircraft. Well, the picture here is bleak in the extreme. Activity here has all but ceased. After refund requests are taken out of the picture, EAC have not had a deposit on a single FPJ for 9 months.

Think about that.

It gets worse. Roel and his merry crew have talked about '$200 million' investment required to get to profitability. Currently, creditors (including refund requests) are 'overdue' just over $170 million and total liabilities (including secured lending) exceed $650 million. In the midst of a general liquidity crisis I think it's fair to say that '$200 million' is less than a third of what is actually required.

Internally, politics are causing friction. The senior management have been promised 100% bonuses if the company gets to 'cash flow positive' in Q1 2009. Sales staff are being promoted by Mike, who seems to think he's the 'real' President, and CV's are flying around the industry from specific people. These are the ones you would expect to know the likely short term outcome, but they still appear to be keen to 'jump ship'.

Lets work this through. The Frankenjet is on hold, which is hardly surprising given that the initial burst of under 100 deposits (only $25K, btw) has been decimated by almost 50 refund requests. The FPJ has a remaining order book of 440 units (at best) with a number of those positions for sale in the aftermarket or likely to vanish when buyers can't get the loans they need. The largest single 'order' outstanding is from Roel himself, to provide air taxi services in Turkey, and it's not even properly deposit backed. The company has had to repossess 28 second hand units from DayJet, and carries a significant bad debt as a result of this failure. Plus of course the difficult task of finding buyers for these 'used' FPJ's without further damage to the already fragile order book.

I can't see this mess appealing to another investor myself, can you?

UPDATED Thursday 16th 20.15hrs GMT
Seems someone in ABQ reads the blog and has a problem with the deposit on the Frankenjet. Glad to see they recognize the ConJet for what it is, by the way. Anyway, the FULL deposit on at Oshkosh was $100,000, not $25,000. My fault. They are also in denial about the 'zero orders in 2008' bit, so I told them where to find their own records. Perhaps they will believe me, if they bother to check.

The FAA and that DOT IG saga
A group of FAA stalwarts are surprised that the transcripts of last month's hearing in Washington have not made the appropriate web site yet. So they posted some video on youtube. Have look at one in particular, from a lady called Maryetta Broyles. She gives a first hand account of the pressure the original FAA inspectors were under, to 'get it done' for Eclipse. At a time when the FAA were under severe budget pressure, her group were told that 'money was not a problem' and were instructed to stay at EAC no matter what. There are other people who are worth a look at the same site

This major issue hasn't gone away you know. It's only on hold until after the U.S. Presidential election.

Current spending
You've all read about the $106 mil contract with CSC for IT outsourcing. Well it seems this is just the beginning as there will be another contract signed with IBM for an undisclosed 'small fortune'. The primary objective is to make SAP functional as it is currently, well, broken. I know that some here will be familiar with SAP, but for those of you who are not, it's major claim to fame is 'end to end' integration of all aspects of manufacturing. From this seat, all I know is that a number of 'household names' that my company deal with have thrown it 'under the bus', primarily because they could not understand the software. So, another yet another 'disruptive' idea from EAC. A company that can't sell aircraft uses software no one can understand NOT to build the volume it needs to survive.

I'm reminded of what has to be one of the best one liners in modern cinema, from 'As Good As It Gets' when Jack Nickleson's character, Melvin Udall is approached by the receptionist in his publishers office. She asks "How do you write women so well?" He replies "I think of a man, and I take away reason and accountability"

Owners in contact and possible future direction(s)
As you know, I keep in touch with the different 'groups' with interests in the Eclipse Aviation story. Clearly that starts with those who post here and continues with Eclipse staff and suppliers. I also have regular contact with journalists and, last but not least, owners. One who contacted me recently made several points, most of which agree with what 'we' are doing here. He did suggest that we 'widen' the blog to include discussion of other VLJ's.

My initial reaction, personally, is that I have my hands full keeping up with one company. I also have a sneaking suspicion, voiced here before, that this blog will be the last resource available to owners of FPJ's when EAC closes its' doors for the last time.

The question is a fair one however, and I think it's time to have an open discussion. October was always touted as the month that EAC had to secure it's funding, or shut down. Before that event occurs I would be interested to hear what the blog thinks. Suggestions that have crossed my line of vision include focus on another (jet) aircraft, with names like Honda and Piper floating around, as well as a more general VLJ forum.

Being a blog, it's a discussion we should have 'in the thread'....

Shane

339 comments:

1 – 200 of 339   Newer›   Newest»
Dave said...

After refund requests are taken out of the picture, EAC have not had a deposit on a single FPJ for 9 months.

Shane, I'm not sure what you are saying. Do you mean that after taking refunds out there's been no net increases in orders?

Well it seems this is just the beginning as there will be another contract signed with IBM for an undisclosed 'small fortune'. The primary objective is to make SAP functional as it is currently, well, broken.

Here's some details on what Eclipse did with SAP, but only on the CRM side:
SAP:Mike Burianek Blog

My initial reaction, personally, is that I have my hands full keeping up with one company. I also have a sneaking suspicion, voiced here before, that this blog will be the last resource available to owners of FPJ's when EAC closes its' doors for the last time.
The question is a fair one however, and I think it's time to have an open discussion. October was always touted as the month that EAC had to secure it's funding, or shut down. Before that event occurs I would be interested to hear what the blog thinks. Suggestions that have crossed my line of vision include focus on another (jet) aircraft, with names like Honda and Piper floating around, as well as a more general VLJ forum.


I think just in the course of business this blog does discuss other VLJs. Maybe once in a while you could do an article on VLJs in general. I do think Eclipse issues will continue on for a long time even if Eclipse filed for BK tomorrow and it wouldn't surprise me if there was even more activity (given everything that would become public by virtue of seeking BK protection as well as a lot of people out of work who have nothing to lose by saying what they say happen at Eclipse) then compared to now.

Dave said...

Roel and his merry crew have talked about '$200 million' investment required to get to profitability. Currently, creditors (including refund requests) are 'overdue' just over $170 million and total liabilities (including secured lending) exceed $650 million. In the midst of a general liquidity crisis I think it's fair to say that '$200 million' is less than a third of what is actually required.

It depends. that $650M figure might be including the shareholder's accumulated deficit, which is a paper loss to Eclipse investors rather than outstanding money owed to any party. The total actual owed right now might be $170, with $200M+ leaving $30M for ongoing operations. If they actually do get money from Russia, then they'd have that on top of the $30M. I don't see it working out, but that might be their plan.

Dave said...

Regarding who has paid the 60% I know for a fact S/N 316 has paid the 60%:
The cost to you of the base aircraft will be only $1,930,000, and with options, $2,095,000. Already paid to Eclipse is the $150,000 deposit paid with original order and the ("60%") progress payment The balance due to Eclipse at delivery will be $572,801. These numbers include the options. 1. Payable to seller at transfer: $1,522,199. The payment to the seller will be made into escrow, to be released to the seller against the receipt by the escrow agent (Insured Aircraft Title Service) of the following documents signed by the seller: a. The Eclipse Purchase Agreement Assignment signed by the buyer, signed and notarized by the seller, and signed by Eclipse, and b. the Escrow Agreement, signed by the buyer and the seller. 2. Payable to Eclipse Aviation at aircraft delivery: $572,801. This is a great buy because it is fully equipped including internation operations. The value of your aircraft will rise! The Eclipse company price $2.315,000 dollars with this equipment plus CPI adjustment from June 2008 up to delivery! aircraft.
Controller Listing for S/N 316
The same also goes for S/N 281:
SAVE HUGE MONEY!!!!ECLIPSE NEW PRICING HAS BEEN INCREASED TO $2,150,000 SO YOU HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO BUY THIS DELIVERY POSITION BELOW ECLIPSE NEW PRICING AS THE SELLER HAS LOCKED IN HIS PRICE BY SIGNING HIS PURCHASE AGREEMENT AND MAKING HIS 60% PAYMENT.
Controller Listing for S/N 281

EclipsePilotOMSIV said...

Hey Shane I think you can email "Alex" that he is a cock.

Dave said...

Tesla Motors is in trouble. Elon Musk (one of Tesla's biggest investors and the Tesla Chairman) has taken over as CEO - much like Eclipse:
NY Times:Elon Musk steps in as CEO at Tesla, lays off staff
Also how Eclipse is waiting for government money and has the local government invested in the company, Tesla is waiting for DOE money and San Jose has a lot riding on Tesla staying in business.

Shane Price said...

Snippet time....

Dave, I'm told total accumulated losses at EAC are now in the region of $1,400,000,000.

Much nicer when you write it out that way, don't you think? $1.4 Billion is just so, well, '80s.

Whichever way Roel tries to dress it up, this balance sheet is shot to pieces. I hope the incoming investor, which he seems to have lined up, does better 'due diligence' than ETRIC did....

Eclipsepilotomsiv,

First, I've no idea who you are referring to. Second, the language is borderline.
Third, are you sure you're on the right blog?

Shane

Shane Price said...

Dave,

Shane, I'm not sure what you are saying. Do you mean that after taking refunds out there's been no net increases in orders?

I wrote that badly. More than one source tells me that NOT ONE deposit backed order has reached EAC for an FPJ in 2008.

What I was trying to do was to be clear about the entire order book.

Just under 100 orders were received for the Frankenjet before or during Oshkosh. Roughly 50 of these were 'transfers' from the FPJ waiting list, and somewhat less than that were 'fresh' orders. However, the cash element of these deposit was only $25,000, and I'm told that the majority have requested (and been paid) refunds. But not those who transferred from the FPJ....

One other thing offered a friendly advice. I observed while listening to the most recent customer call that Mike McConnell is clearly on a power trip right now. If I've learned anything during my 31 years in business, it's to be very careful dealing with ambitious salesmen.

Sometimes they succeed and take over the industry they are working in. More often they crash and burn, not just themselves, but the companies they touch.

Shane

Dave said...

Much nicer when you write it out that way, don't you think? $1.4 Billion is just so, well, '80s.
Whichever way Roel tries to dress it up, this balance sheet is shot to pieces. I hope the incoming investor, which he seems to have lined up, does better 'due diligence' than ETRIC did....


If Eclipse really is $650M in the hole, they're worse off than I thought. If there's someone out there who is really going to put in an additional $200M to Eclipse, lots of luck. Are you sure this money would be for Eclipse rather than ETIRC? Depending on what rights ETIRC has, it would seem better to give ETIRC the money rather than Eclipse...not that I see a rosy scenario with either option.

gadfly said...

Over the past year . . . and more so in recent days, the discussion of possible success of the little bird seems to be mostly focused on finances, political hype, etc. A long time ago (in “Eclipse Years” . . . about 1/7th of a dog year), the “gadfly” and others pointed out that, first, you need a complete product. This is not a “pocket fisherman”, that costs $19.95 plus shipping and handling (where the true profit lies). This is “proposed” to be a real live aircraft, that will take the average American family, with 2.7 kids, a thousand miles, at almost 400 mph, five miles above the nearest emergency landing spot. (Hey, that’s less than six people!)

Go back through history, and I cannot think of a single example of a hi-tech aircraft, or “battery operated car” that achieved success by the “good wishes” and “promises” of a “Vulture Capitalist”. Unless history is completely wrong (and I seriously doubt it), no amount of loans, nor attempts at reorganization, are near saving this fiasco.

When I was still a kid, an old lady came to church, there in Burbank, California, in her "Studebaker" electric car . . . even then, you could not tell the front from the back of a Studebaker . . . big tall windows on all four sides . . . a "tiller" for stearing . . . and two trim little ladies dressed in black, silently driving to church, down and back up the side of the Verdugo Foothills. They achieved a top speed, faster than most of us could run. Little did I realize that soon I would be traveling all over the Pacific, using a similar technology . . . and under water, at that!

The “purist” in fly fishing, will go for a “split bamboo” fly rod, with tapered line . . . and a hand tied fly . . . in the end, the “pocket fisherman” is dead . . . it made a quick buck for someone, but will only be remembered in a history book of TV scams.

Some day, the little bird will be a foot-note in the history books of aviation . . . or twenty-first century scams, sold at “Barnes & Noble” . . . or, probably, "Amazone.com".

Now, I realize that most of the bloggers here are not “engineers” nor “inventors” nor “skilled in aircraft design” . . . but before you put too much value in the discussion concerning the finances, etc., ‘just continue to remember, that the little jet still remains that swollen can of beans.

gadfly

(Of late, I think the “can” has sprung a leak . . . but if you think that potential customers can get past the smell, well . . . !)

airtaximan said...

"Dave, I'm told total accumulated losses at EAC are now in the region of $1,400,000,000."

let's be clear, is this the loss on the books... IOW, Assets vs. Liabilities? (My intition is saying, "Yes")

It is not the total incinerated cash... that would be a much higher number. North of $2B, IMO.

eclipse_deep_throat said...

Shane,

Any chance you can clarify the $650 mil? Is this essentially an 'update' to the debt as listed in the stock option details I sent? If yes, then I'm assuming it would mean the company was capitalized with $650 mil in debt with $750 mil in "owner's equity," a 46/53 split. Out of that $750m, I wonder how much Roel put in. The last scuttlebutt that I heard was that his investment was more around $147-150 million.

Just curious. ;-)

E.D.T.

Niner Zulu said...

No one is going to loan/give Eclipse enough money to carry them through the long period they must go before they are profitable.

Eclipse supporters are in denial. Waiting for EASA certification, waiting for upgrades, waiting for deposits to be refunded, waiting for funding, waiting, waiting, waiting....

It's all smoke and mirrors.

Eclipse isn't going to implode. It IS imploding.

airtaximan said...

9Z,

You are joking about profitability, EVER, right?

If not, please explain your vision... I love a good night fairy tale.

baron95 said...

From the previous thread Dave said ... Baron, ... I've seconded your posts many times when you've said that the depositors should band together and act quickly and now you're acting like you've never said that and it is crazy to even think it.

Dave - owners depositors should have organized LONG AGO and sued to stake their claims and force Eclipse's hand. No dispute here and I do appreciate you seconding that advice.

OTOH, it is also true that, given that he gained unchallanging control, Pieper also has the absolute right to run the company as he chooses (assuming he has total board control). If he chooses to move all production to Senegal that is his prerrogative. If he chooses to go build motorcycles instead og giving people deposits that is his call and his call alone. Creditors can sue him to force "strict performance" or for damages. But until then, Eclipse is his toy to play as he chooses.

I hope you can understand the two points - they are fairly independent.

P.S. I meant no insult to you - one more time I value you contributions very highly here - My apologies if my fast firing postings came out a bit raw.

ATM, Dave - yes, there is a point where "miniaturization" starts to be very expensive. That is why I specifically restricted my comments to SAME TECH planes of differing sizes. If you are using the same technology, by definition you are not incurring higher technology and design costs, and the smaller size is always cheaper - less material, less assembly time, etc...

Dave, to use your Laptop vs Desktop example, the higher cost of the laptop is NOT because it is smaller, it is because it uses dissimilar technology.

If you were to build a "laptop" without a battery, without a "mobile" version of the processor, and compare it to a desktop with a same size-LCD, same processor, memory, etc, the prices would be close.

Again, the EA500 is no where near the size limit where exotic tech is required - that would drive coss up. The D-Jet at 5,000 lbs MTOW is using the same tech as the 8,000 lbs TBM and C510 - and it costs 40% os much - if you work the numbers on BEW, that is almost linear - there is a step there on the two engines vs 1 engine.

airtaximan said...

lets see now...

650M + 750M + other gov't (bond) money + deposits + losses + trade debt...

Hmmm

THAT"S A BIGMOTHERASSNUMBER!!!!

Think Taximan has something here withthe $2.XB number???

airtaximan said...

ooops, forgot IOUs...

airtaximan said...

Baron, I made a lot of examples, like Gulfstream cost per seat compared with Boeing cost per seat? Same basic tech, smaller plane costs 10x the larger one, per seat...


There is also the argument that to transport 6 non-pilot passengers 1,000 miles, you would need $6M in planes, either 2 VLJs or 5 SEJs or 1 Phenom 300?

Arguent goes... what has been gained from an apples to apples comparison with VLJ-type miniaturization? Nothing IMO

Compared with props, for a real VLJ 3 pax mission, its a no brainer for the props, regarding cost.

Speed and comfort are secondary for this short (VLJ+Prop) mission..

again, IMO... and apparently in the opinion of most of the market...

Shane Price said...

E.D.T.

The way I hear it, Roels' first investment was '$140 million for 35%' of the company. That was for the 'original' stake, last year.

In August, he stumped up another $25 million as a 'bridging loan'. This will almost inevitably convert to shares, giving him a majority (50% +) of the company and therefore, control.

This is the reason Roel can call all the shots. Everyone knows that he is, for all practical purposes, the owner.

The $650 million number combines the 'current liabilities' (refunds, creditors due for payment) with secured (loan) debt. It does NOT, as I understand it, include shareholder funds.

Very hard to get a handle on that, but one source (the $1.4 billion one) would lead one to believe that shareholders are down something like $750 million, so far.

Bit hard to find out how much cash is left in the company, but a recent tip off suggested that they had about $35 million at the beginning of September. Seemed about right, given that amount is less than what the refunds would add up to.

I can see why the company are trying to scare off these people. If, as has been suggested by several sources, the refunds are in the region of $50 million the company is insolvent and simply can't pay.

On the other hand, Roel clearly thinks he can pull this one around. Otherwise he could have withdrawn last week and blamed the stock market crash.

And you have to remember that there is 'one born every minute'. Maybe, just maybe, Roel has found that 'one'.

Stranger things have happened with this company in the past....

Shane

Niner Zulu said...

You are joking about profitability, EVER, right?

ATMan,
I stand corrected!

Roel clearly thinks he can pull this one around. Otherwise he could have withdrawn last week and blamed the stock market crash.

Shane,
Judging by how the US stock market was taken out back and beaten today (ouch!), plus down more in after-hours trading, I think Roel still has time....

;-)

baron95 said...

ATM, look at same tech.

Mission 3 pax 500 nm. Options Mustang $3M, CJ1+ $5M, CJ2+ $6M, CJ3 $7M, CJ4 $8M.

As you go up you go a bit faster, have a bit more room and pay more. Simple as that.

As for Boeing vs Gulfstream, make sure you are comparing them correctly.

A G5 compared to a BBJ1 is totally even in cost per seat in typical configs.

An E175 compared to a 739 is again even in cost per seat.

I'm sorry but I can't find any example where the smaller plane costs more. Thank god, or I'd have to go back to physics 101.

baron95 said...

Huge news for AA and Boeing - AA just ordered 100 789s (48+52), even as first flight is now delayed by almost 2 years to 2009.

Looks like the 763s will finaly go - well in 2018 anyway.

AA have balls to order in this environment.

baron95 said...

Ànd Comp Air just raised $150M to certify a 10-seat TP and also some money from Russia to build a 22 seat one.

So I guess money is out there for GA projects.

Dave said...

OTOH, it is also true that, given that he gained unchallanging control, Pieper also has the absolute right to run the company as he chooses (assuming he has total board control). If he chooses to move all production to Senegal that is his prerrogative. If he chooses to go build motorcycles instead og giving people deposits that is his call and his call alone. Creditors can sue him to force "strict performance" or for damages. But until then, Eclipse is his toy to play as he chooses.
I hope you can understand the two points - they are fairly independent.


I guess I should explain my nuances as well. My concern is for the unsecured creditors with a judgment that they could otherwise enforced but for the funds/assets being in a foreign country and that is why I feel there's a very strong need to take action sooner rather than later because the 90 day preference window couldn't actually be enforced (unless you're willing to spend a lot more money on lawyers) with foreign transactions even if the depositors won in US court. I'm not talking about what could be considered normal business practices but only judgments that would otherwise be enforceable...if Eclipse/ETIRC have only engaged in normal business practices and BK court wouldn't rule for the depositors, then what I'm saying is moot. My statements are predicated on depositors being otherwise able to get back at least some of their funds but for the foreign transactions.

Dave, to use your Laptop vs Desktop example, the higher cost of the laptop is NOT because it is smaller, it is because it uses dissimilar technology.
If you were to build a "laptop" without a battery, without a "mobile" version of the processor, and compare it to a desktop with a same size-LCD, same processor, memory, etc, the prices would be close.


OK, I am understanding you now. I believe it is even if you exclude dissimilar parts. To have the components accomplish the same thing but in a smaller space the parts do run more - like for instance DVD drives and various other components that are the same functionality but scaled down to fit in the reduced space available within the laptop.

Also in regards Gulfstream v Boeing, which I see you've posted below, I think we have to be sure that we are all talking about the same functionality. I checked it out by looking at the G550 versus the 787-400 and the reason I used those was that their range was close (with the G550 flying a few hundred miles less than the 787) and I assumed that their avionics was otherwise similar. With that the 467 seat aircraft was cheaper per passenger than the 18 passenger aircraft.

Consider if the "same tech" is being used. Just by matter of having the costs spread out amongst fewer passengers would mean that scaling down costs more per passenger.

Dave said...

Bit hard to find out how much cash is left in the company, but a recent tip off suggested that they had about $35 million at the beginning of September. Seemed about right, given that amount is less than what the refunds would add up to.

But how much was there when the Refund Event occured? I think however much there is now, there was more when the customers asked for and were entitled to their refunds.

And you have to remember that there is 'one born every minute'. Maybe, just maybe, Roel has found that 'one'.
Stranger things have happened with this company in the past....


I'd certainly like to know who would throw that kind of cash at Eclipse. Also even if Eclipse was flush with cash, do they even have suppliers for all their parts?

just zis guy, ya know? said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
airsafetyman said...

"There is none, zero, nada, zip, zilch, chance of that if they sue."

Nope. Not even close. Sue and the cheap bastards will settle on the courthouse steps. Don't sue and you have just financed Roel's next yacht race.

Dave said...

I'm sorry, but you don't seem to understand the meaning of "unsecured". The unsecured creditors will never, ever, ever, receive money from a judgement that subordinates the secured creditors. Has never happened, never will.

I do understand it. I see very clearly that Eclipse depositors are being told the wrong legal information in an attempt to scare them away from getting what belongs to them. I have two words for you: "Constructive Trust." Constructive trusts are done all the time (frequently due to BK) and with constructive trusts even secured creditors are subordinated to the constructive trust because the trust is considered separate from the BK estate. The courts might not decide in favor of the depositors to grant them a constructive trust, but to say it is legally impossible for them to get relief from the courts is simply wrong. As I understand it the depositors feel they have a case for fraud and if they're going to be arguing that anyway, finding fraud is one of the ways a constructive trust would be created.

Turn-And-Burn said...

Eclipsepilotomsiv,
First, I've no idea who you are referring to. Second, the language is borderline.
Third, are you sure you're on the right blog?
Shane


Shane, it looks like you're pretty well uninformed.

airtaximan said...

"A G5 compared to a BBJ1 is totally even in cost per seat in typical configs."

a BBJ is a GA low density variant of a commercial airliner

You are making my exact point - same plane, lower seat density, for GA as opposed to the airlines...

You are makng a BS argument

airtaximan said...

"a 22 seat one"

really funny, here.. anyone who knows... knows this is the dumbest....

airtaximan said...

"I'm sorry but I can't find any example where the smaller plane costs more. Thank god, or I'd have to go back to physics 101."

I explained this, ut you do not seem to want to understand, or my point is unclear.

Again: the OEMs understand that smaller is not less expensive beyond a certain point...so why argue. You jsut reinforce the pont. Its MORE expensive to make smaller usefull planes, so why do it?

Great argument - no one ahs produced a smaller plane, with less utility (P/R) for more money... why? Becasue only EAC was stupid enough to even try.

Once agian, the real mission is passengers for a real jet trip/// wonder why EAC id DOA? Because they compete poorly with props... its a shit plane... how else can we describe it so you will understand?

The trades make no sense, the market is NOT there, and the plane sucks froma marketability perspective.

Normal OEMs do not make this quantum error... so YEAH... they priced it wrong... cannot sell enough and will never make a profit... otherwise it would be way more expensive... understand, now?

Try again.

Niner Zulu said...

"There is none, zero, nada, zip, zilch, chance of that if they sue."

No, I think the first ones to sue may see some money. They may have to settle for less than they expect, however, unless they want to go to court. But the longer they wait, the less chance that Eclipse will be financially able to settle.

just zis guy, ya know? said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
eclipse_deep_throat said...

Baron95 said:
**I'm sorry but I can't find any example where the smaller plane costs more. Thank god, or I'd have to go back to physics 101**

Sorry, this is like a splinter in my brain. The EA500 **IS** the smaller plane that costs more per person ....more per passenger mile, more per hour, etc. We likely shouldn't berate this point ...but I think it is all something that we might agree on. Essentially, the analogy in my head is how economical is it to use the Concord to fly from Point A to Point B, say 500nm?

Yes, yes, I know the damn plane has been retired. But I'm thinking of Total Cost of Ownership: depreciation, insurance, financing, fuel, operations, licensing, pilots, administration overhead, and the BIG UNKNOWN: maintenance and long-term reliability. I mean, think of a regular car taxi in New York City: the traditional taxi works because (a) the cost of cars is RELATIVELY cheap per mile compared to other substitute goods, (b) the cost of an EMPTY car idle for 16 hours per day is insignificant and (c) the cost to use a taxi is generally insignificant disposable money for the NYC users. When the cab is empty, it doesn't cost all that much to drive around to find another fare. How much would it cost per hour to fly the EA500 empty with 2 pilots from JFK to Newark to LaGuardia airports until they find a paying fare????

I'm also thinking of Goldratt stuff, Theory of Constraints. Typical old-school factory managers used to try to run their machines at max "utilization" with no regard to how many widgets they crank out, even if they were to be rejected by the market. The plane is still just any other asset that has to earn its keep no matter if it is a private GA pilot or an air-taxi biz. Someone smarter than me can figure out all that in a snazzy Excel matrix. IMO, I think this is a clear case of Version 1.0 prop plane technology as the clear winner.

I'm admitting my limited knowledge before hand. The only Cessna plane that I was ever in as a kid 25 bloody years ago, looked just like the 172. So I'm looking at that plane as a baseline. Wikipedia mentions it has an operating cost of $102 per hour for a 172S. Factoring in all costs, could someone operate an EA500 for $102 per hour?

I think the answer to that is obvious. What is the most common plane that charters, GA, or air-taxi companies use? Maybe this would be a good occasion for this to turn into more of a general VLJ blog. Since no one knows what the long-term depreciation of the EA500's will be, aren't the major experienced firms NOT buying the Eclipse? This is like putting a Warp drive in a Greyhound bus but with only 5 or 6 seats. The more I think about it, the more I see the economics of this won't make sense for a considerable amount of time because jet air-taxi planes will have to compete with prop planes and props will have a lower TCO by definition. **Ceterus paribus**, any NORMAL consumer "at the margins" will always choose the lower-cost travel option.

Well, that is my thesis at the moment. Talk amoungst yourselves!!

E.D.T.

baron95 said...

You guys are warped. You are trying to compare personal transportation with public transportattion.

Comparing an airliner-configured 737 or 747 to a personal transportation G550 or Challenger is lie comparing a Greyound bus to a BMW 750i.

Compare apples to apples. BBJ1 to Challenger or CRJ90 to 737-ariliner. Greyhound bus converted to personal 5 pax RV to BMW 750i.

Bigger article has higher cost per seat, higher cost per trip, higher cost all around.

The most inneficient Biz Jets are the largest: A380-VIP, 748VIP, 73W-VIP etc.

The most efficient personal (i.e. personal/family modest sector lenghts) Biz Jets are the smallest.

Silly argument really.

Yes, if you want me to concede that there is a size below which you have to use exotic technology therefore making it more expensive, I'll concede that to end the circular argument.

But that size is way, way smaller than an EA500, smaller than a D-Jet, etc.

A 2-place single PWC610, modest range jet, woulc be very, very cheap.

FreedomsJamtarts said...

Good point you made Baron95 to end a bit a of silly comparison discusion.

The bigger the personal Bizjet, the more it costs per seat mile.

The Eclipse may well be the cheapest personal biz jet in cost per seat mile (although I doubt it once true maintenance costs become available, combined with lousy value retention).

If Eclipse was setting up to build the lowest cost personal biz jet, they may have been able to build a stable business. Unfortunately their business model (I'm being generous here) requires about 2/3 of the 1000 orders per year to be air taxi's.

Shane, how many orders did Eclipse book so far this year?

How many orders did they book last year?

What is the greatest number they have ever booked in a year? Real orders without floptions.

How many orders do they currently have on back order (discounting nepotism orders from themselves, Floptions from the various international vapourware startups, and speculation orders for which the speculator will never get a loan?

Shane mention 440 orders before you scrub the book. I think I am on record for a prediction around 42 orders they can still bank on.

The critics all accept the Dr Maisfields (spelling) basic design has some good characteristics. PWC's engines seem to deliver (at least when new - margin retention is always going to be a challenge for such small turbines), but the market has never, ever delivered the 1000 real orders per year which the program needs. Even when times were great, and any strawberry picker could get a negatively geared, Nija loan for a block house in Compton.

The really sad thing is that there is probably a organisation or person out there gullible enough to be parted from another $200,000,000 in order to prelong this tragicomedy.

fred said...

freedom :

#The really sad thing is that there is probably a organization or person out there gullible enough to be parted from another $200,000,000 in order to prolong this tragicomedy.#

unfortunately , last night what had been rumors before became real news (thou not really unexpected) UBS had to get a grant of fresh cash from the swiss Govt(4B $) to avoid bankruptcy in the next few days ...

the said loan is made under the condition that the "toxic assets" (60+ B$) are under examination to determine what is the extent of losses (no need for exam ...i can give answer free of charge = all)
and ALL finances deals not vital for the bank future have to be postponed to a better date ...!

guess EAC is not "vital" for UBS ...

sorry Mr Gad to have talked once again about the dosh ...
thou you are perfectly right , why are we talking about geld for something which isn't even finished ...

airtaximan said...

"The Eclipse may well be the cheapest personal biz jet in cost per seat mile"

"personal biz jet" - pretty small category, so its not the point

Airliners are lower CASM
Many biszjets are lower CASM
Props (for the VLJ mission) are lower CASM

So, who really cares? I'll tell you, not a lot of people, really.

airtaximan said...

"Yes, if you want me to concede that there is a size below which you have to use exotic technology therefore making it more expensive, I'll concede that to end the circular argument."

nope, I'll concede - its not the tech issue, its the practical market issue.

You are describing a jet plane for prop mission, and saying a really small jet is the best alternative. It is simply not practical, these days, to use a jet for a prop mission...

AT the very least, we need to acknowedge one fatal flaw of the ea50... the reason it missed its large transport market, called air taxi.. the plane is too small - it competes with props, and it loses on CASM.

People will not really flock to a VLJ taxi, when a prop does the trick in arond the same time and comfort, same convenient airports, and at 1/3 the cost.

fred said...

atm :

#the reason it missed its large transport market, called air taxi.. the plane is too small#

oh , yes !

this being a consequence of them (EAC)looking for an angle in a circle !
IF eac wouldn't have tried to achieve something for TOO many missions (Being cheap;being Air-Taxi;being a jet for GA;Being an investment;etc...) at the same time , they could have done something ...

but chasing too many prey at same time is the best way to miss them all ...

like trying to find the angle of the circle , they try where it cannot be possible ...

they should have stick to the Personal-only jet , then they could have achieved something instead of running after a chimera !

airtaximan said...

EDT makes this point much better than I do... read his post, and disregard the rudeness and poor penmanship in my previous post...

;)

thanks

sphealey said...

> OTOH, it is also true that,
> given that he gained
> unchallanging control, Pieper
> also has the absolute right to
> run the company as he chooses
> (assuming he has total board
> control). If he chooses to move
> all production to Senegal that
> is his prerrogative. If he
> chooses to go build motorcycles
> instead og giving people
> deposits that is his call and
> his call alone.

Somewhere along the line it might be useful for people to remember that we have these little things called "laws" and "the legal code" in the United States. I realize that we have been through a pendulum cycle recently where there was not much interest in enforcing these pesky little "laws" against incorporated businesses that objected to such silly restrictions and little things such as subpoenas, court judgements, and criminal referrals but it might be wise to remember that as always the pendulum appears to be swinging and when this comes to a head in the first quarter of next year someone whose thinking is more along the lines of Patrick Fitzgerald's may well be sitting the US Attorney General's office.

sPh

airtaximan said...

fred,

and IMO, they chased "low cost" with "high tech"...

Dave said...

Here's a recent aritcle that shows a misconception about Eclipse:
We’ve been hearing a lot about Eclipse Aviation lately. First a press release to say it will easily survive the demise of DayJet, its largest customer for Eclipse 500 VLJs, then reports of opinions voiced in Congress that the FAA has been overly lenient and perhaps a bit rushed in certifying the 500.

However, the biggest and most impressive news is of a factory in Russia to assemble the Eclipse 500. The chair of the State Bank’s supervisory board, which approved the deal, is none other that Vladimir Putin, so it seems safe to predict that it will go ahead. Production will begin in 2010.

PilotWeb:ECLIPSE POWERS ON WITH PUTIN
The deal in Russia is with ETIRC not Eclipse.

fred said...

atm

IMO : low costs was one of the aspect of the whole ...
as a comparison with military , they tried to make a "transport" able to be a bomber , and the bomber good for fighter role ...
(if it could be possible , all country would have one type of plane)

Low-costs was the way to sell it to public ...
public who was paying for developing a "Air-taxi" plane ...
Air-Taxi who was expecting a plane with a longer range , better speed (those 2 ones to beat props) and more reliability ...
reliability which has some problem (commonly) with low-cost ...

Deep Blue said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
fred said...

dave :

this is hilarious ...
#The chair of the State Bank's supervisory board, which approved the deal, is none other that Vladimir Putin, so it seems safe to predict that it will go ahead#

for the author of this , Mr Putin is a kind of troglodyte who has no idea of what is going on in some other parts of world , a kind of guy who push forward anything , not in his interest , whatever conditions are ...

few weeks ago , on the Russian TV channel "Vesti" (news) i saw a report of the said guy going to Voronezh (historical heart of Russian Aviation )and making a speech on "the future of aircraft making in Russia "
if i remember well he said something like "everybody has to do his best to revive this industry , anyone claiming to do something in such process without doing his best is not worth the oxygen he is breathing !"
(V.V.P. is very used to say things in a harsh manner !)

for the N times , he wasn't there (but in Sochi , some 1000 Miles away in straight line ) a written communication was made in his name by Alexeï Kudrin (Finance minister) stipulating that all should be done to diversify the structure of the Russian economy , including some project as a guideline ...

NOTHING REALLY specific about EAc/Etirc ... (on which you are right : it is etrick concerned ! EAC ? what's this ?)

the only good thing for EA500 = it was in the file of the project looking for a formal "YES , IF ..."
with an other ten of other projects ...

not a lot of peoples are aware of this : in Russia , the power of one is , sometime, limited to the place he is ...
in Yeltsin time , it was very common to say in Moscow that the said president had power 2 Kilometers around the Kremlin ...

bureaucracy in Russia is a pain in the bum , when a decision is taken in one side of country , to get to the other side it can take a full year ... and to be obeyed or implemented : an other year ...!

so when i read such thing , i cannot refrain to think that they are painting a rosy picture , may be the reason why they never say anything on conditions ...!!

Deep Blue said...

A couple of comments:

Someone mentioned Mike McConnell at EAC being on an "ego trip." He may indeed be, but I don't know why. I always found him intelligent and committed, but utterly consumed with projecting the EAC high-production religion; to that extent he is not credible. Moreover, one might ask why RP kept him (and PB) on staff. In my experience, it is not uncommon to see a bridge financier like RP, who is trying to keep up a facade for funding and exit purposes, to leave old line management in tact (after they gain control and remove the founder and a large shareholder) because they will not typically wreck the game and have been co-opted into a personal exit for themselves and/or are trying to rehabilitate their professional opportunities. New, professional execs, with any professional independence, would challenge and uncover all the discrepancies in the business and destroy the confidence game for the bridge financier. That MM et al are still there in my experience only reinforces the continued illegitimacy of this venture.

And it is critical to keep in mind the Etirc (whatever it is) is only a bridge player, playing the EAC project "on spec." They have nowhere near the financial capabilities to actually operate the venture; they are by definition merely bridge financiers looking for an exit.

Concerning the E500, a family member who has flown a lot by private air made a comment to me that is painfully simple but helpful I think in keeping this aircraft in perspective. She told me she simply would not fly in a VLJ: too small, the E500 in particular has no bathroom; the cabin is claustrophobic; there's insufficient work and storage space. Even if the E500 were gold platted and owned and operated by Microsoft or British Airways, she and her business colleagues would simple reject it at the product level and choose instead a light jet with sufficient space and a better feeling of safety (their comment and same for other family members/men). Moreover, there's really no charter market for this airplane either: all the experienced charter users (and frac customers) I know will go no smaller than a LR-35/Hawker400 or Citation series and generally prefer a step up in cabin to a LR55/60, Hawker 800/1000, larger Cessna etc, even for relatively short trips (400-800 miles). All the charter brokers/operators I know wouldn't even offer a VLJ: their customers reject them out of hand. This tells me the E500 and VLJ's generally really are "pilot/owner" planes and that is one hell of a small market. As for the deployment of the E500 in Russia, Eastern Europe, Middle East, I know of no real live execs that would feel comfortable in such a small, low powered, marginal/hard weather aircraft. I have no idea who Etirc thinks they are going to sell these planes to over there. As for air taxi, even flyers I have heard from that would regularly use such a service, would much prefer a traditional light/mid size or even RJ/shuttle style aircraft.

FreedomsJamtarts said...

Lets quickly summarise this years new orders.....













_____________
Bottom line=0

fred said...

freedom :

it is very good for saving paper :next year , just re-write the date ; results will be the same ...! ;-))

AvidPilot said...

Stock prices are dropping like a rock.

Real estate prices are dropping like a rock.

Jet prices are dropping like a rock, only the sellers don't realize it yet because nothing is selling. Some sellers still think they can get a premium....LOL!

Shadow said...

Baron said: "Greyhound bus converted to personal 5 pax RV to BMW 750i."

You do know that CRJs are derivatives of the Challenger 600-series, and not the other way around, right?

Shane Price said...

UPDATED Thursday 16th 20.15hrs GMT
Seems someone in ABQ reads the blog and has a problem with the deposit on the Frankenjet. Glad to see they recognize the ConJet for what it is, by the way. Anyway, the FULL deposit on at Oshkosh was $100,000, not $25,000. My fault. They are also in denial about the 'zero orders in 2008' bit, so I told them where to find their own records. Perhaps they will believe me, if they bother to check.

For the record, what actually happened with the '$25k deposit' was my fault. It was at Oshkosh 2006, for the FPJ, that a 'stage payment' offer was made by EAC. Put that amount down, and the balance within a certain period and you then were treated as having paid.

The contact from EAC was also very keen to point out that I was wrong on sales in 2008. So I did two things.
1. Told him I knew where to look for the records and advised him to check it out himself and
2. Reminded him that DayJet were never going to buy 1,400 aircraft and suggested (rather rudely I'm afraid) that no one would believe another 'order book' claim from EAC.

Ever.

Turn and Burn

Welcome back.

Seriously.

Shane, it looks like you're pretty well uninformed.

Around here, it pays to be 'uninformed' from time to time. Like when your former leader sued Google. So when I get an email (and I get lots, from all sorts of people) I reserve the right to preserve the First Amendment.

And thanks for confirming what's already up on E5C.

Freedom,

Shane, how many orders did Eclipse book so far this year?
How many orders did they book last year?
What is the greatest number they have ever booked in a year? Real orders without floptions.
How many orders do they currently have on back order (discounting nepotism orders from themselves, Floptions from the various international vapourware startups, and speculation orders for which the speculator will never get a loan?


- This year is zero on the FPJ, less than 100 on the FrankConJet, of which about 50 were 'transfers'.

- I've only a few sources, but most come in at less than 100 for the FPJ last year.

- Don't know what the 'highest' year was, but will try to find out.

- 440, deposit backed orders. Not more than 500, possibly less than 350, from several other sources. This excludes the FrankConJet or any other form of words which is not backed by a substantial cash-in-the-bank deposit.

Hope that helps.

Shane

Deep Blue said...

Comment on Etirc strategy:

I was informed by a very credible "inside" source (I can't reveal but consider it as reliable as anyone could ask for) that Etirc's strategy is very simple and consists of the following:

1. They (Etirc) hired a consulting/engineering firm to "map" and "blueprint" all of EAC's production methods, technical specifications and all other manufacturing IP, which Etirc will then take to "Russia" as its IP to sell to the Russians et al (or deliver under previous agreement). Etirc will then shutter and dump EAC ABQ into Chaper 7 liquidation (there can't be a C11 as there is no new investment or revenues coming in or expected to come in, such that a DIP (debtor in possession ) or other restructuring could be accomplished; it's liquidation, period.

Etirc is strictly an "extraction" platform for a Newco in Russia or elsewhere. The Russians in general have absolutely no knowledge about how to build a business jet. This is a "reverse engineering" exercise for VLJ's (I don't necessarily agree that the "reverse" leaves one with any engineering but to a third world nation like Russia, it may mean alot).

Regards.

Deep Blue said...

Follow up:

The "consulting/engineering" firm was asked to "invest" its fees and with a promise to be given more business from Etirc. They (it's either McKinsey, Bain, ATKearney or a boutique firm) evidently are facilitating the "extraction."

One might ask whether there is a US DOJ issue here, if true.

Dave said...

Etirc is strictly an "extraction" platform for a Newco in Russia or elsewhere

So I'll re-iterate a question that I made earlier - is the $200M+ being sought for Eclipse or ETIRC? I presume it is ETIRC that is seeking it directly whether or not there is an extraction strategy.

sphealey said...

> The Russians in general have
> absolutely no knowledge about
> how to build a business jet.
> This is a "reverse engineering"
> exercise for VLJ's (I don't
> necessarily agree that
> the "reverse" leaves one with
> any engineering but to a third
> world nation like Russia, it may
> mean alot).

This is the same "third world nation" that the United States is currently dependent on for most resupply and all emergency resupply and extraction missions to its own space station? The same nation that builds the Su and MiG series fighters? That has the Sukhoi Superjet (aka Russian Regional Jet) in test?

I don't doubt that building cost-effective business jets is a difficult task and that cost-effectiveness was never a primary goal of Russian aerospace, but I am not sure that reverse engineering Eclipse addresses that problem.

sPh

airtaximan said...

DB,

we've suggested the plan you outlined is the ONLY plan that makes any sense, for a long time.

I am certain the Russian plant is being touted as a cost-saving move, and the e500 is being "sold" to investors as very profitable based on the lower labor available in Russia.

I put it in the BS category, but I am sure its enough to make a good story.

Deep Blue said...

SPHealy: yes, of course; Russia has excellent aerospace engineering credentials; however, that is mostly if not exclusively confined to defense; remember "Concordski?" The Russians stole it from the French and English.

Business jets? Same thing. They'll steal it anyway they can, first because they have no real development funds (outside of oligarch largess/confiscation).

ATM:

BS and a good story, indeed.

Dave said...

I put it in the BS category, but I am sure its enough to make a good story.

I don't think Roel making off with Eclipse's crown costume jewels will work, but as you say it makes a good story. Claiming to need two factories makes no sense whatsoever. The political fallout should be quite entertaining with the US taxpayers losing tens of millions with Russia and Roel being the beneficiaries.

julius said...

deep blue,

They (it's either McKinsey, Bain, ATKearney or a boutique firm) evidently are facilitating the "extraction."


RP always wanted to build up a aviation bussines in Russia. Typically he should have asked his Russian partners to come to ABQ and Gainsville to learn the processes.
That's not a secret - VR already told that an Uly plant should be build etc.
Obviously while Uly/consultants are learning/researching in ABQ,
RP will do everything to prevent a BK!

It is strange if the consultants are working "under cover"...
or RP believes he can sell muliple "copies"
of ABQ to Uly and other companies in the world!

Julius

P. S.: Who is owner of the TC?

Black Tulip said...

"Etirc is strictly an "extraction" platform..."

Sounds like a scene from "Invasion of the Body Snatchers".

Deep Blue said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Dave said...

There was no previous "deal" with any Russian investment group; RP had to set up a phoney shell company called "Etirc" then place a phoney "order" for 100+ E500s and then try and rope-a-dope some foreigners that there was a real buisness there. Sorry; a bit cynical; but seen it B4 all too often.

Similar to what happened with Eclipse and DayJet except Vern didn't own DayJet. I gotta admit that Roel talking up his own orders as proof of european demand was a lot of chutzpah.

airtaximan said...

Hello Judge, Peiper here... yes CEO of ETRICK... and ECLIPSE...

EAC has $600M in liabilities and no $50M in assets, $10M of which is the TC.

My company ETRICK agreed to pay EAC a royalty of $15,000 per plane to EAC, which I am still willing to pay the royalty, and I have a plant in Russia which can produce the planes - I just need the TC.

Judge, anyone here willing to buy the TC for the EA?

Deep Blue said...

Julius:

I would not say that "VR always wanted to do Uly." That is patently untrue.

VR found Roel PieperP and concocted some "Russian" plan in early 2007 as a desperation move after the US capital markets, suppliers, and strategic investors said, "no thanks.".

Just bringing in RP/Etirc as a new investor and a non-exec Chairman in 2007 cost Raburn his job as Chairman of EAC, and diluted his ownership greatly.

If you have any doubts about the severity of the terms Raburn had to agree to in his "cram down," last year with "Etirc" then merely witness how easily he was ejected by Pieper this year. That deal was wired over a year ago.

This was a pure last ditch desperate effort by Raburn, after US capital markets said "no thanks."

Bring in Russian engineers to reverse engineer, you say? Maybe.

But remember that the "Russian" play is still and always has been, all on "speculation."

There was never any previous pre-investment "deal" with any Russian investment group.

Roel Pieper had to set up a fake shell company called "Etirc" then place a fake "order" (remember, no deposits, no financing) for 100+ E500s (in an "air taxi" model; sure), and then try and rope-a-dope some foreigners that there was a real business there.

Sorry; this may seem a bit cynical; but I've sadly seen it Before, all too often.

Pure, classic fraud/confidence game. The execs/insiders sending me "snipets" are overwhelmingly valid.

Regards.

julius said...

at,

good answer - thank you for omitting the name of the judge!

Now I got it, too!

Julius

The Right Way said...

Today, 3 friends of mine, laid off in August, received phone calls from EAC HR regarding future rehire in Jan. 2009. The cynic in me believes they are creating a list to show a prospective investor there are folks still willing to work there.(in spite of of all the mess). Btw, you regulars are providing a great service in outing this "company". I was lucky, I left in the early summer.

julius said...

deep blue,

please keep in mind, VR did not manage to get the FPJ ready in terms of money and time.

ETIRC aviation formerly was called
Eclipse Europe (renaming ca. 2004). RP made his order 2005 and always wanted to build the FPJ in Uly (ETIRC (not ETIRC aviation in Lux) should be a link between Europe and CIS!).

RP has a certain reputation...

When after burning others money finally passing the helm of the company to RP VR knew what he did.

I think VR is better off being ousted than playing a weak president!

Why should RP have any link to ABQ and the employees, the city, the state - ask VR or someone of the BoD (who earn some money etc.)!

Julius

Dave said...

The cynic in me believes they are creating a list to show a prospective investor there are folks still willing to work there

It's called the sucker list.

TBMs_R_Us said...

P. S.: Who is owner of the TC?

Why would they even need the TC in Russia? The Russians can do their own TC for Russian use (do Russians even do TCs?), and might not even care about EASA. Depends on what they would be trying to accomplish.

At any rate, more power to them to "steal" the piece of crap FPJ. Look what I brought home Ma! A real jet airplane!!

gadfly said...

Right Way

Based on over six years of history, you came to a good conclusion. The day the first little bird fluttered around the ABQ landscape, and barely limped back to a "successful", as in, "walk away from it" landing, and Eclipse declared "success" (to get their hands on money in escrow) . . . there was not a further thing to be learned.

The "critics" have given every opinion, since . . . but that first day was in reality the final chapter. All the rest is footnotes and "fluff".

Do what you will, but the book was written years ago . . . including final chapter, epilog, et al.

gadfly

The Right Way said...

It's called the sucker list.

They're still looking for jobs. No more Koolade to drink. Outside of ABQ, of course. Luckily they weren't 12 week wonders who invested everything in this "start-up" company. (which is what mgmt. told us whenever something slowed production)

Dave Ivedorne said...

I don't doubt that building cost-effective business jets is a difficult task and that cost-effectiveness was never a primary goal of Russian aerospace, but I am not sure that reverse engineering Eclipse addresses that problem.

I'm sure...

It doesn't.

"Russian" aerospace has always been a bastion of originality. I can think of many examples: Tupolev's Tu-4 Accidental Tourist,
Tu-144 Concordski, and Tu-160 Lancer spring immediately to mind. Not to be left out, Sukhoi gave us the T-4 Valkyrie. Antonov's An-72 obviously owes nothing to Boeing's YC-14. And of course, who could ever forget the Molniya OK-1K1?

But none of that matters right now. The question that begs for an answer is whether or not the Tupolev Tu-164 will be successful. Dentists everywhere say "DA"!

Would you like the Happski Meal?
DI

FreedomsJamtarts said...

If this was still the cold war, you couldn't laugh hard enough at the concept of the russians obtaining the production engineering and process control structure of Eclipse!

The russians have very good engineering schools, and a very practical approach to engineering risk, but the culture of communisim was not conductive to the partnership industry/authority which was successfully used in western certification until start ups like Eclipse threw a spanner in the works.

Certification is largely based on trust and experience. If you can't trust the company to do what is discussed and agreed, the authority has to get involved to a degree which causes the program to grind to a halt. See example 1 - Eclipse 500!

I know of no russian A/C to have ever been successfully validated against FAR, JAR or CS certification standards. They are good at designing A/C, and can build them, but all the contact I have had with persons involved in certification agree that the russian industry just don't seem to understand the rules of the game, or are not willing to play by them. Communism left a legacy of secrecy which makes it differcult to establish the necessary trust, combined with a deficit in basic understanding/drive for quality.

Same goes for Eclipse, so I don't see how the Partial eclipse offers them anything they don't already know.

Aerodynamically and mechanically the thing is nothing special. Stir fried welding may be a process the Russian military are interested in, but has been around long enough that I would expect the already have it (if they didn't lead already - welding technologies have been one of their strengths).

The engine process technology doesn't come with the ABQ deal. The engines themselves can be bought in two packs, with a diposable delivery system off Controller.com.

fred said...

Mr gad :

#The "critics" have given every opinion, since . . . but that first day was in reality the final chapter. All the rest is footnotes and "fluff" #

you are so wisely right !

without speaking about money , this whole thing got corrupted on the day VR understood that it wouldn't be possible to build "something" that could be :

small enough for owners to fly family , when those owners were the ones ponying the cash needed to develop

a big enough plane to cater for Air-taxi ...

when VR understood that those two needs were diametrically opposed ,but one had to pay for the need of the other one , the fate was sealed !

everything after has been for the "show" and an attempt to see if the saying "keep throwing money in a bad project , you may make it work !" could be true !

fred said...

YES , freedom !!!

up to recently(i don't know if they still have it) Boeing had a engineering bureau in Moscow ...

a guy working there told me that they were employed there to work on physics and engineering problems , as well not to be available for employment in EADS (Airbus)

so to think that Russians do not know how to do aviation , jet-business , or anything related to me sounds like in recent past , some who pretended that they were the only one to understand the beauty of New Finances ...

now they are the ones to shout about the craziness of the system that make them completely pennyless ...

always the same story for whatever and wherever in the world =

as soon as you believe you can do ,create or organize something that no one else can = you are very close to be lost ...!

fred said...

freedom :

i forgot about EA500 produced in Russia ...

Most Russians do NOT trust things made in Russia ...

it is crazy how many foreign cars , who are assembled in Russia , are sought if they come from OUTSIDE ...

Renault , Peugeot , Wolkswagen , GM ahve plants in Russia ...
but on the second-hand market , such brand's car are worth more if the owner went to get it himself in Western Europe...
which is madness since those cars if made in Russian plant are adapted to Russian climate , which make them more suitable for use in the Rodina ...

so for an eventual EA500 the fact of being produced in Russia would then be more a downgrade than anything else ...

as you wrote Quality Culture in Russia is still something a "bit exotic" in many aspect !

Shane Price said...

Fred,

'Russian quality' is an oxymoron, when used in this context.

I'm sure you've 'enjoyed' Aeroflot, which operated many of it's trans Atlantic routes through Shannon. As a result I had some 'experience' myself, but to describe it as a pleasure would be stretching things a tad.

As a family, we've done business with the Russian's going back to 1936. The equipment was/is reliable, simple to operate and well thought out. However, repairs need more time that you expect and parts are difficult to a) source and b) fit, as they rarely match the original in every respect.

And everything they make, without exception, is heavier than you expect.

In conclusion, I hope that the Russian Government is successful in it's desire to foster an aviation sector. I remain doubtful that they will achieve their objective....

Shane

fred said...

Monsieur Shane ,

i don't have any doubts they will succeed !

the point is that they will succeed in "the Russian way" !

so it is probably going to be ugly , heavy , not modern for a kopeck ...
but it will be reliable , practical and usable !

if you put those aspects in perspective with the EA500 :

something which has so little qualities assembled in a country where "quality" has an other meaning , produced for a market (Russia) where the fact of being produced in the place is a big minus ...

wow , i feel dizzy to see all implications of such ... ;-))

fred said...

but for the reader , i would like to share some experience on such "adventure" (flying russian in russia...)

one of the first time , i ever took a plane in Russia , i was seated between a enormous , really enormous baboushka in fur coat and her belongings (few cages full of hens) no need to say that the 7 hours flight was a delight , especially when the "old lady" started to fall asleep on my shoulder snoring like an army of pigs ...!! (i don't call this a good memory , but surely a funny one)

the way back was almost uneventful , if the plane would have not been crowded and the condensation wouldn't have dripped on my head (drop by drop for 6 hours ...) with a flight attendant who had probably been a kapo in a camp(temper and voice), coming every now and then with a cloth to "sponge out" the problem ...

so you see , it didn't kill me and helped me to "relative" the situation ...

now less than 1500 Kms : i use car
anything further than 1500Kms and less than a day in train , i use train (very funny as well , for the peoples you meet) anything further , i use western standards airline or private !

FreedomsJamtarts said...

I see I made a mistake on my summary of this years orders...


+50 Orders Frankenjet
+50 Order swaps from the Partial Eclispe

-50 Frankenjet cancellations
-50 Frankenjets which are not going to be built









_____________________
Bottom line = 0

FreedomsJamtarts said...

The wests system of production certification is very heavily based on conformity with standard defined by the approved design.

Some of our companies also lose sight of the fact that in production they just have to keep making bits and doing things within the defined limits they themselves set.

If they start making bits which are out of conformity but will work, they have the choice to either correct/replace the parts, or open up the tolerance or process through the design certification system.

From what the FAA/Boyne presented, it sounds like Eclipse didn't see any great need to either bring parts in compliance with design, or make design changes to make produced parts conforming.

Traditionally Russia aerospace separated design from production. Antonov, Tupulev etc were design bureaus. Production was done in bomber factory #11 four time zones east of the Urals.

I have the impression that production companies had significant autonomy to do the little design changes to make things work. In the western system the production organisation has zero autonomy in this respect.

I believe that the whole russia story is a red herring, but if it is not, it looks like the russians are buying a company with exactly the same weaknesses as they already posess.

FreedomsJamtarts said...

ATM has many good points on this blog.

In that sense lets summarise the number of completed Partial Eclipses to have been delivered.
Here they are list by serial number....














_____________________
=0

FreedomsJamtarts said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
FreedomsJamtarts said...

Don't miss todays dilbert

fred said...

oh , freedom ...
you put in words more than it seems !
thank you for such grace ...!

the 2 system are totally different !

in one things are meant to be respected , if you fail to respect what has been decided , constructed , etc , everything collapse ! (or at least not work as it should do , because peoples in this system are not used to face extra-ordinary situation )

in the other system , the motto is "make it work !" it is so much more "rustic" , but as well it means almost everyone is used to face "special situation" ! (even if those "special" are a kind of norm in itself )

to see EA500 produced in Russia would be exactly like someone trying to extinguish a fire by throwing gas into it ...

FreedomsJamtarts said...

Cool, I just found out that they have achived all Dilberts with the date in the URL.

Bringing it back on topic, it turns out the Eclipse business model dates from at least 1994-10-10!

FreedomsJamtarts said...

It is interesting that this practical approach Russian engineering system was also applied to manned Space flight, where it would appear to be superior to the western system, as we tried (any failed) to eliminate risk, they have managed risk. The result a much cheaper, simpler system.

The classic example is NASA spending millions on a pressurised ball point pen cartidge which would write in any orientation, and not leak.

The cosmonauts used pencils!

FreedomsJamtarts said...

Back at a previous job where I worked with one of the Aeroflot propulsion engineers, Igor recounted the following joke...

The CIA steals the drawings for the MIG 25, and assigns Boeing to make one.

Boeing builds every part to spec, and assembles them, but the result is T-72 Tank!

So they pull it apart and check every part against the drawings, fix a couple of minor errors and reassemble it. It is now a k-141 Nuclear submarine.

A bit baffled, Boeing gets the CIA to kidnap a Mikoyen designer engineer.

When confronted with the problem, the russian engineer points out that that Boeing didn't read the drawings properly.

At the bottom of each drawing is written "during assembly, file to fit"

:)

fred said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
fred said...

freedom :

#The cosmonauts used pencils!#

YES , perfectly right !

it is called the benefit of hardship !

if you take a mechanic from 200 miles away of Irkutsk and put him in front of a modern car , you'll end-up in a mess ...

if you take the brightest geek from MIT , put him 200 miles away from Irkutsk , the guy will die in a few days ...

off course to have both would be great , but one has kept the ability to adapt where the other is already a bit too spoiled ...!

it happens anywhere ... not long ago , i have seen kids in Europe who couldn't see the relation between Cows and milk !

Shane Price said...

Seems Roel may need to lend UBS money, rather than the other way round.

Shane

Dave said...

Eclipse shows [one of] their problems. The used market taking business away from the new business:
“I’m pretty sure that a number of the new markets, including Eastern Europe, Russia and India, will gobble up these aircraft pretty quickly,” he said. According to Pieper, Eclipse wants to help fleet buyers so they can start business that, otherwise, would have to wait in line for deliveries of new Eclipses.
GANews:Eclipse says it holds liens on DayJet fleet
If someone wants an Eclipse, they're better buying used rather than new.

Dave said...

Progress payments have been made for units with S/Ns at least into the 400s. I guess that would explain where Eclipse is getting its money for operations.

baron95 said...

Fred said ... i have seen kids in Europe who couldn't see the relation between Cows and milk !


Is there a relation between Cows and Milk?

I thought milk was something one got from one's mother or the supermarket? What am I missing?

The one in the supermarket comes, so I've heard from soy, or any number of mammals after lots of porcessing (some invented by the French), that regulate the lactose content, fat content, etc.

To say that milk comes from cows is to say that planes come from bauxite mines.

So, more power to the kids.

baron95 said...

On a serious note, on the last eclipse Customer Conference Call (I posted the trascript), Peg and Mike said that EASA was going to be doing final testing this week in ABQ?

Does any one know if there are any EASA pilots flying around in Eclipses in ABQ?

Anyone seen any odd looking pilots with funny accents hitting the local bars?

Any info at all?

It would be a terrible blow to some on this blog if Eclipse were to get EASA sign off this month.

So we should be on top of that HARD bit of news.

Dave said...

It would be a terrible blow to some on this blog if Eclipse were to get EASA sign off this month.

Not really. It does little good if Eclipse isn't retrofitting. I've expected for a long time Eclipse would get it, but it would essentially just be a piece of paper that wouldn't actually do any good for the owners. Now what would be surprising would be if EASA was granted without any hardware modifications while letting Eclipse operate at FL410.

fred said...

baron ...

you are hopelessly disturbed by modernism ...! ;-))

have you ever tried to fly a piece of bauxite ?
while anyone can live on raw cow milk ...

no need for processing whatever , it only help the industry to make a fortune ...

if you would be lost in the middle of the Taïga , showing off with the biggest AMG you can think of wouldn't help too much ...

while a moujik would take a few hours or days to get accustomed to any western town

i am not saying one is better than the other , ONLY it is my perception of things that one is a little bit more spoiled than the other one ...

obviously that should concern you quite much ! ;-))

fred said...

even if they would get EASA :

WHAT for ?

it would be more a problem than anything else ...
the European Orders scheme would go up in smoke within minutes ...

dipping the "Merry Band" a little more in the juice of their lies !

airtaximan said...

"It would be a terrible blow to some on this blog if Eclipse were to get EASA sign off this month."

who are you, and what have you done with Baron!!!

Seriously, I would be surprised if EASA approved the EA50, but it would just mean they are getting their sh&t together - not a bad thing.

From my perspective, it does nothing regarding commercial viability of the plane - more markets to sell more planes (or not, as the case may be) at a substantial financial loss.

I would expect a price reduction, upon further news in Russia, and a new price set at a point where "position holders" could be attracted, no matter what the real cost to build the plane would be.

Like $1.25M... $200,000 deposit, non-refundable of course.

Then the action can begin again - attract a few hundred depositors, maybe convince them to take a plane or two or three a piece... 2010 delivery, of course... all mods/retrofits incorporated...

Might even attract some Saudi money for this renewed business...

cans of bean, baby
cans of beans

PS. any bets on ETRICK'S royalty arrangement - percentage of gross, or percentage of net?

My bet is gross... there's never going to be a net.

fred said...

and by the way about EASA :

it would be the first time they don't lie about something ...

that would be even more amazing than the cert. itself ! ;-))

gadfly said...

Now, carefully think this through . . . Eclipse claims to have a real airplane . . . with the papers to prove it. It reminds me of something in Mark Twain’s, “How To Tell A Story”:

THE WOUNDED SOLDIER.
“In the course of a certain battle a soldier whose leg had been shot off appealed to another soldier who was hurrying by to carry him to the rear, informing him at the same time of the loss which he had sustained; whereupon the generous son of Mars, shouldering the unfortunate, proceeded to carry out his desire. The bullets and cannon-balls were flying in all directions, and presently one of the latter took the wounded man's head off--without, however, his deliverer being aware of it. In no-long time he was hailed by an officer, who said:
"Where are you going with that carcass?"
"To the rear, sir--he's lost his leg!"
"His leg, forsooth?" responded the astonished officer; "you mean his head, you booby."
Whereupon the soldier dispossessed himself of his burden, and stood looking down upon it in great perplexity. At length he said:
"It is true, sir, just as you have said." Then after a pause he added, "But he TOLD me IT WAS HIS LEG! ! ! ! !”

gadfly

(“But they told me it was a real airplane!")

Deep Blue said...

An interesting perspective on the general quality of GA/Bizav order books (apologies if this isn't live; cld someone resend the instructions):

http://www.ainonline.com/news/single-news-page/article/are-recent-bizav-forecasts-already-outdated/

If you buy into the analyst's perspective, EAC/Etirc is simply fighting an impossible battle for the kind of orders they/MM continue to promote.

fred said...

atm

yes , but there is still major problems :

in European Union (as much as we are under-developed as baron is going to say)NO one has been waiting for the EA500 ... at the most it could concern a few pilot-owners (even if they have the means to owns they would probably disregard the Fpj!)

Air-taxi is not concerning much peoples (quality of transport is already very good !)

apart UK , speculation is not really a way of life in most european countries
as for the UK , i highly doubt that we will see again in our lifetime the same kind of craze as in the last decade ... the party is over : everybody got a hang-over ,there !

for Russia : 2M$ is either nothing or much too expensive ...
one of the richest guy in Russia bought a restaurant in Roma for some 24 Millions €(about 32M$) , just because his girl-friend liked the place ...
so the Fpj is going to either a toy that not a single "rich" would be like to be ashamed to be seen with ...
or for the "less rich" 2M$ is already out of reach !

Dave said...

If you buy into the analyst's perspective, EAC/Etirc is simply fighting an impossible battle for the kind of orders they/MM continue to promote.

I think it has always been that way with both DayJet and Eclipse. Even if DayJet could manage the logistics of 3000 customers per day in the Southeast, 3000 customers per day wouldn't be interested in flying DayJet just as if Eclipse could make 1000 jets per year, there wouldn't be 1000 buyers per year. They're just get-rich-quick schemes based on impossible sales volumes.

baron95 said...

And in case you don't know and are wondering how Russian civil aviation is doing, Nine Russian Airlines are Being Shut Down within by Next Week

baron95 said...

Fred said.... if you would be lost in the middle of the Taïga , showing off with the biggest AMG

Actually the Taiga in the summer is an incredible place. I've always wanted to go driving there. I think a G550AMG or GL63AMG would do just fine there.

As for sucking on milk producing glands from mammals - I'll stick with just the ones from one particular female of my own species. (Ouch - that sounds wierd - but I'll leave it here for Fred only - he is French, he will understand the prose)

Now back to bouxite eating critters that Gadfly lies.

Incidently, Gad, could you tell us why you choose to post under the Nato name for a Russian SAM - the mighty SA-11 Gadfly?

Shane Price said...

Dave,

Progress payments have been made for units with S/Ns at least into the 400s. I guess that would explain where Eclipse is getting its money for operations.

I recall from a customer call two months ago that at least one of the depositors from the '400' range had paid his 60% earlier this year. That would have been consistent with the propaganda from Mike and Vern at the turn of the year.

My sense of it is that the 'progress payments' dried up before Oshkosh, and for sure by early August this year.

Meanwhile, the monthly 'burn' continued at $20 million+. Takes a good few '60%'ers to keep that sort of arson going for long....

Remember what one of my sources has claimed. Roel had to provide '$25 million of bridge finance' in August.

I think they have enough cash to survive for another couple of months, possibly to Christmas. But there is no point in going on without the promised UBS led funding.

And UBS has just had to be bailed out by the Swiss federal government.

Go figure.

Shane

gadfly said...

baron

The handle, “gadfly”, sounds better than “oestrus” . . . and was taken from the type of “fly” mentioned in Isaiah 7:18 . . . a small stinging irritating fly . . . fulfilling the definition of my efforts. It worked for me while writing comments for our “fiftieth” highschool reunion . . . so it remained while moving in on the little bird.

gadfly

(For NATO to call a Russian missile a “Gadfly” has to be a “put-down”, not a compliment! The Russian Gadfly was introduced in 1979 . . . I was launched over four decades earlier.)

just zis guy, ya know? said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
airsafetyman said...

"“We have the responsibility to refurbish the aircraft and bring them back into the market,” Pieper said...Eclipse wants to help fleet buyers so they can start business that, otherwise, would have to wait in line for deliveries of new Eclipses."

They have a "responsibility" to fleet buyers who haven't invested a nickle with them, but have no "responsibility" to customers who have and now want their money back? Hey, wouldn't returning deposits free up a new airplanes for those air taxi companies (always flush with cash) who are beating down the door in ABQ demanding new airplanes? Roel must be spring-loaded to the BS position 24/7. He apparently cannot be embarassed, can he?

baron95 said...

Well Gad, your name-sake SA-11 Gadfly is credited with a Surface to Air combat kill of a Russian front-line plane during the recent Georgian conflict.

So after many decades, I gess he fly can still sting.

It is actually the latest combat SAM kill and it is significant for mordern air strategy. Of course, for you to be able to get any info on it you need to cruise the Russian defense blogs and discussion, becasue our intelligence boys and girls, not to mention the "free" press still have absolutelly no clue of what happened in Georgia and how the Russian military performed.

They come up with the outgrageous claims that the Russians tried to bomb the pipelines, and if the Russian pilots were stupid enough to try to hit a pipe burried in the ground, when they could easily target the huge above ground pumping stations.

My reading tells me that there was no coordinated air campaign and not a single Georgian SAM site was attacked by HARMs before the Russian planes went in. But it is still a pretty good performance from the Georgian SAM operators to get some front line Russian fighter - with a Gadfly even ;)

airtaximan said...

ASM,

he was refering to himself... he's a fleet "buyer"... probably the only one left, actually.

capiche?

Dave said...

They have a "responsibility" to fleet buyers who haven't invested a nickle with them, but have no "responsibility" to customers who have and now want their money back? Hey, wouldn't returning deposits free up a new airplanes for those air taxi companies (always flush with cash) who are beating down the door in ABQ demanding new airplanes? Roel must be spring-loaded to the BS position 24/7. He apparently cannot be embarassed, can he?

I think you actually cut out the key phrase in what Roel said:
“I’m pretty sure that a number of the new markets, including Eastern Europe, Russia and India, will gobble up these aircraft pretty quickly,”
What Roel is doing is having US depositors involuntarilly pay to enrich ETIRC. What Roel is talking about doing is paying to refurbish the aircraft and then having them go to ETIRC territory. It makes it very difficult for depositors to get their money back when their money is put into an aircraft that has intentionally been moved overseas and outside of the the jurisdiction of US courts. If the depositors were to get constructive trust, they'd have to go to foreign courts to try and get it enforced. That's why Roel wants to beat depositors into submission because the more time goes on, the less depositors can do about it unless they want to re-litigate things in foreign courts. A guess an option that depositors would have would be to try and get a preliminary injuction to keep Eclipse assets within the US until the other legal matters are resolved one way or another with a final court ruling. People were asking if there was any proof of Roel sending Eclipse assets overseas, well, there's Roel himself publicly saying that is exactly what he is going to do with the former DayJet fleet by putting it in ETIRC's territory.

Dave said...

he was refering to himself... he's a fleet "buyer"... probably the only one left, actually.
capiche?


I think there will always be buyers for the aircraft (unless for instance it was to come out that due to poor manufacturing the aircraft has a maximum life of like 3000 hours), just it is a question of how many buyers there will be and how much they will pay. ETIRC could find buyers for a couple dozen used FPJs in their territory.

baron95 said...

just zis guy, ya know? said...
Did one of your sources tell you that Eclipse was trying to get a LOAN from UBS!??


Zis, this is just par for the blog. Some don't seem to be able to make the distinction of UBS acting as an investment bank trying to put together an equity round for Eclipse, and UBS as a bank lending Eclipse money.

To some it is all the same. To others, the fact that UBS got a cash infusion from the Swiss government means that their 45,000 employees are no longer capable of putting together a round for a customer.

Fact is, Eclipse will or will not find investors based on their own merit or lack of and the investors apetite. UBS cash reserves situation will have little to do with it.

But these details are too much for the blog. "Eclipse Banker going out of business and needs loan from Eclipse" sounds much better. ;)

baron95 said...

Dave said... an option that depositors would have would be to try and get a preliminary injuction to keep Eclipse assets within the US until the other legal matters are resolved one way or another with a final court ruling.

Dave is absolutely right, with each passing day that they don't file, depositors are seeing their options dwindle or evaporate.

Filing against a company like Eclipse in a US court, showing a valid and clear signed contract with a currently foreign CEO, ownership and plans to move IP overseas, would cause ANY judge to grand injunctive restrictions on any asset flight.

I can't understand what these EA500 owners and depositors are doing - I've never seen a larger group of intelligent people enjoying such a long run of being strung along as this bunch.

Yes, there is a small chance that Eclispe will get EASA, funding, complete the Jet, restart production, deliver your jet. But why be passive?

Move nown - you can be OK either way.

airtaximan said...

baron,

while I agree UBS's bailout is not directly linked to financing EAC, there is a link.

Recent dealings with some financial institutions that are in bailout situations leads me to believe their attention is not on new transactions, but more focused on dealing with their own toxic assets. They realize the sort of equity EAC is looking for, is dead now, as everyone is sitting on their hands.

So, yes, Shane made it seem like UBS wasn't going to be financing EAC (debt) - but I'm quite sure its just the brief post... he's a pretty savvy business person, just like you.

;)

Dave said...

Dave is absolutely right, with each passing day that they don't file, depositors are seeing their options dwindle or evaporate.

There's the quick and the dead.

Yes, there is a small chance that Eclispe will get EASA, funding, complete the Jet, restart production, deliver your jet. But why be passive?
Move now - you can be OK either way.


Exactly. To further elaborate on the importance of taking action NOW rather than later is that US courts look differently at Johnny Come Latelys and if you were to try and first take legal action after BK was filed, you'd have a much more difficult challenge just within the US courts of getting any kind of legal relief (BK stays litigation, so you'd have to have a good lawyer get you represented in the BK case via a backdoor). The more time that passes, the more the US courts will frown upon you plus the harder and more expensive it would be to pull Eclipse assets back from overseas if the US courts grant relief.

airtaximan said...

"Move now - you can be OK either way."


A truer, more important comment have not yet been published here.

What are they afraid of, Roel will leave? The company will shut down? The lawsuit will cost money?

Nothing THEy do will change any of this - just they will have something to fight about. They seem to be moving rapidly to "empty bag".

eclipso said...

Fred said...
and by the way about EASA :

it would be the first time they don't lie about something ...


On the video from the Peg's testimony at the Congressional Hearing she states that they expect the full EASA certification in the "next few weeks" (5:20:34 into the video).

Now, with the way numbers go at Eclipse, this could mean "Next Tuesday" or any time in the future...but...it's been "the next few weeks" since that testimony, so I think the numbers are off....again!

Dave said...

Now, with the way numbers go at Eclipse, this could mean "Next Tuesday" or any time in the future...but...it's been "the next few weeks" since that testimony, so I think the numbers are off....again!

I would expect them to get it, just that there'd be very onerous requirements for retrofits and such nasty things and there could be limitations such as how high the FPJ can fly in europe. EASA certification is meaningless if few or none of the aircraft can use it just as the various other retrofits are meaningless since Eclipse isn't doing them.

Also if EASA is waiting on the FAA to approve Avio 1.5, that could be interesting as I expect that whoever is supposed to sign off on it knows that they could be called before congress as part of the on-going House Transportation FAA review and other such unpleasant things. I think Avio 1.5 has been tied up at the FAA for awhile if I'm not mistaken.

Dave said...

While browsing I think I found an answer to some confusion that had been on this blog. For FIKI, Avio NG 1.5 isn't required, but Avio NG 1.0 is required. NG was installed on aircraft 105 and later:
Aircraft 105, the first production Eclipse 500 equipped with Avio NG, has just received its certificate of airworthiness and will be delivered to its owner in the coming weeks. Eclipse intends to ensure a homogenous 500 fleet by modifying all in-service Eclipse 500s with Avio NG by the end of 2008, at the company's expense. 12-27-2007.
FAA Certifies Eclipse Aviation's Avio NG
Without basic Avio NG software installed on the aircraft, FIKI can't be installed.
DayJet Folds and Eclipse Aviation Struggles to Survive
So DayJet didn't even have Avio NG 1.0 on some of their aircraft! Presumably others are out there as well where they can't get FIKI because they don't have any version of Avio NG installed.

Shane Price said...

Baron,

But these details are too much for the blog. "Eclipse Banker going out of business and needs loan from Eclipse" sounds much better. ;)

Of course it does.

That's why I wrote it that way....

As ATman has correctly identified, I was making a more subtle point. A business that's in difficulty (EAC) needs strong and focused partners (UBS) to plot a way forward.

UBS is bound to be a bit 'engaged' with it's own future at the EXACT same time that EAC needs to clarify funding.

Suppliers are pissed, customers are pissed and staff are, well, pissed at EAC right NOW.

I'm pretty sure that a year ago Roel would have been able to pull this off with no trouble at all.

But in October 2008?

What do you think?

Shane

Dave said...

Here's something depositors should consider as a possibility based on what are known facts and to show why it is important to take action sooner rather than later.

First off Eclipse is going to be burning up cash in the retrofits which further depletes the money from the deposits. Then if Roel has ETIRC sell them it would be ETIRC that would have all the money from the sale and that money would be outside the reach of the US courts. Then once Roel has spent Eclipse's depositors' money on the retrofits and got the cash from selling them into ETIRC's coffers, he could then declare Eclipse's BK as CEO of Eclipse and for whatever reason (or not reason at all) refuse to send the DayJet fleet money back to Eclipse as CEO of ETIRC. This could result in around $20 million leaving the country outside US jurisdiciton.

I am not saying this is Roel's plan (other than for what Roel has himself publicly disclosed), but if a depositor believes they'd have an otherwise enforceable judgment within the US, this shows a reason that depositors should protect their interests by seeking a PI to keep Eclipse's assets within the US until the courts make a final ruling either for the depositors or for Eclipse. Depositors have options, but the more time that expires the fewer those options become and the less likely are the courts to side with the depositors. $20 million dollars is a lot of refunds and if there's $50 million in refunds that have to be paid, getting 40 cents on the dollar is better than nothing and is probably better than many other creditors would end up with.

baron95 said...

Shane said ... But in October 2008?

What do you think?


Given all their problems and missed promisses and inability to get the plane completed after 10 years, I think it was a miracle that ETIRC invested and it is a miracle that VEB is even "saying" it will invest, and it would be the financial coup of the century if UBS manages to close a round for Eclipse.

Having said that, the company is, incredibly, still around, so I don't want to say that they are dead for sure yet. Somehow they seem to always pull a rabit out of the hat when their backs are against the wall. Who knows.

Maybe the financial crisis will actually help them. If comodities prices are crashing, stock prices are crashing, tresury yields have been negative some days in the past two weeks, mortgage securities are a nightmare, where are investors going to park their money?

How about a little NM jet maker - may work ;)

baron95 said...

Dave said... First off Eclipse is going to be burning up cash in the retrofits which further depletes the money from the deposits.

Why do you say that? I think it is totally obvious that Eclipse has no intention of upgrading the planes on their dime. Sure if they got $500M they may do it. Sure they will upgrade the DJ fleet to resell at a profit. But for the average owners? Forget it. They will continue to string them along and offer as they are to let owners do it on their dime with third parties.

That is why I am telling the owners to sue for strict performance of the purchase agreement. They should have done 1 year ago. Actually they should have refused delivery of the incomplete jet unless money was set aside in escrow or discounted for the upgrades. Having failed to do that, they should have sued the day after taking delivery for strict performance and damages.

Dave said...

Why do you say that? I think it is totally obvious that Eclipse has no intention of upgrading the planes on their dime. Sure if they got $500M they may do it. Sure they will upgrade the DJ fleet to resell at a profit. But for the average owners? Forget it. They will continue to string them along and offer as they are to let owners do it on their dime with third parties.

You are right in regards to regular owners and perhaps I didn't make myself clear. I am talking about the retrofits exclusively for the former DayJet fleet that Roel said he was going to retrofit and sell overseas. I'm NOT talking about retrofits for everyone else. By spending Eclipse money on the DayJet fleet and having ETIRC sell them overseas all that money goes to ETIRC overseas unless and until ETIRC sends it back to Eclipse in the US, so retrofiting that fleet alone can personally benefit Roel while retrofiting other aircraft serves as a drain and probably wouldn't be done as you state.

That is why I am telling the owners to sue for strict performance of the purchase agreement. They should have done 1 year ago. Actually they should have refused delivery of the incomplete jet unless money was set aside in escrow or discounted for the upgrades. Having failed to do that, they should have sued the day after taking delivery for strict performance and damages.

I agree with you. My comments to date have mostly been about depositors rather than Eclipse owners. I'm sorry for the confusion as to what retrofits I was talking about.

FreedomsJamtarts said...

For me the real eye openers of this whole sorry story are:

1/ to see how passive people can be while being reamed to the tune of $125K, and more, of their cash.

2/ to see how lame some organizations and individuals are at doing due diligence before fronting up with hundreds of millions for a piece of a half arsed idea.

3/ to see FAA high level officials go so far out on a limb just to ensure a few bonuses get paid. While one expects political appointees to engage in such nonsense, I would have expected the FAA lifers to be far more risk adverse.

Turboprop_pilot said...

Freedomjamtarts:

The FAA bonuses (and probably the New Mexico SIC) are an example of how horribly expensive corruption is: to get a few thousand dollars, people will put millions into bad investments that suck in still more investments from others. Did you see the Huntsville, AL Army procurement manager who stole over $2 million while directing 100s of millions from Congressmen into programs the Pentagon did not want?

Our whole economy has become less and less efficient as we have slid into crony capitalism- just my opinion, but we are rated as 28th in corruption!

Turboprop_pilot

gadfly said...

Albuquerque Journal, 18 October 2008:

http://www.abqjournal.com/biz/181032324338biz10-18-08.htm

". . . The five-year contract, with the option for three one-year extensions, is valued at $106 million, according to a CSC news release. CSC will manage the development and maintenance of the Albuquerque-based very light jet manufacturer's computer networks, as well as voice and video telecommunications . . ."

gadfly

EclipsePilotOMSIV said...

Give us some of the Internet money. We want more money. Yeah that internet money!

Shane Price said...

Snippet time.

FrankConJet is dead in the water.

Total, deposit backed orders to date now claimed to be 75.

Less refund requests to date, 32.

Remaining victims (sorry, customers) 43.

19 of the refunds have been paid out, a few transferred to FPJ's (how weird is that...) and one was from an FPJ depositor who was told he would have to wait along with the rest of that unruly mob.

That leaves about 6 chaps wondering why they ever dealt with the snake oil salesmen from ABQ.

What's really interesting is the following, throwaway comment from one of my 'reliable sources'.

Plans are being made to decide 'who will stay' when the cash runs out.

!!!??

Shane

airtaximan said...

Shane,

many here have described Pieper as "the fall guy"...

I rather think its Peg and Mike who are the fall guys...

We'll see.

My test was Vern - when he refused to play ball with Roel, it meant to me that even he couldnot buy into the BS that was being contemplated.

I'm not kidding - not charater/moral/reality issues for Vern, just "will the story attract new money?"

His answer was "niet".

So is mine.

uglytruth said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
uglytruth said...

HEY are there any good lawyers here? We could all throw a grand in and buy a position with cash at a huge discount. That would give us (the blog) the right to file suit against VR, Eclipse, RP, Peg, and any of the other thieves that are still there. Now that’s disruptive!

Dave said...

HEY are there any good lawyers here? We could all throw a grand in and buy a position with cash at a huge discount. That would give us (the blog) the right to file suit against VR, Eclipse, RP, Peg, and any of the other thieves that are still there. Now that’s disruptive!

Now THAT would be an interesting legal case!

julius said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
WhyTech said...

"MikeMcConnell said... "

Really? Anyone notice a fishy odor?

julius said...

whytech,

Really? Anyone notice a fishy odor?


There is a light fishy ordor -
if the is no positive cross check,
Shane should feel free to delete "mike"'s and naturally my posts!

Julius

flyboymark said...

Julis said;
"...If RP is in a bad temper and does not see any advantage for him he may close EAC..."


Welp!
Of Course he will! In the mean time he is drawing a paycheck on the backs of the depositors jus' like the big banking financial institutions CEO's did until the day they collapsed. If he's not drawing a check you can bet your bippy he's funneling money for his personal use somewhere else. It’s so obvious that when the till runs out he WILL close the doors! All the more reason for depositors AND owners to SEIZE the company and all of its assets. 'memeber....most of the time he who jumps first in the U.S court system usually wins if the case is based on something reasonable.

All depositors and owners would at least have a source of parts manufactured on a small scale(ex.:Aerostar...) to keep their aircraft flying "somewhat". As far as I can see they are all on the same road as the SUCKERS that own the A500. I feel NO PITY for the present depositors and owners because of their inaction and they deserve what they are getting at "THIS POINT AND TIME".

The point of the asset seizure is not to get any money directly out of EAC immediately but to secure the "possibility" of a sale of assets and to obtain parts support and/or maybe even resume production domestically thru new owners that don't have white collar trash running the company.

julius said...

whytech,

"MikeMcConnell said... "

fishy odor



thinking a bit - you are right there is a stronger fishy odor!

I wouldn't post something like that - even if it seems to be common sense!

It is just a missuse of the blog!

Julius

airtaximan said...

Everyone is capable of questioning whether this IS R-E-A-L-L-Y Mike McConnell.

- I don't buy the issue about parting out Dayjet planes, nor do I think anyone from EAC would post the insolvency issue, or a timeline until there is NO cash left.

- I also do not think ETRICK gets money from the Russians any time soon, and if they do, they would probably need to pay some to EAC. What am I saying? Russian money? Sorry... lost my freaking mind.

FreedomsJamtarts said...

I thought trolls were supposed to smell of granite, not fishy.

It is unfortunately far too close to the truth to have come from Eclipse.

Black tulip would have made it more amusing.

10. How many 60% progress payments has Eclipse collected above serial number 266?

Every deposit through serial number 500 with the exception of one has paid the 60% progress payment.


I wonder how many idiots really did bend over and hand over 60%, while holding their ankles- six months before some fictitious "delivery" date? Eclipse has provided ample evidence that contracts are not something to be taken too seriously.

airtaximan said...

strange thing is...

EAC under VErn always maintained they were "trying" to live up to the delivery claims they used to get cash from the "position-holders"...

Now that Roel had stated "no way"... they should all be entitled to immediate refunds OF THEIR MONEY.

I know you cannot get blood from a stone, but apparenlty they have enough cash to pay 1,000 employees, and keep the lights on - seems like this should NOT be their choice, but the "position-holders" choice.

Let's see:

When I made my deposit, there were no real alternatives, there wer incredible peformance claims, cutting edge avionics, and world class training partners, no to mention "2500 firm orders with deposits" and the plane was $1M or so in tomorrows dollars.

Today?
AH FORGET IT.

Niner Zulu said...

I don't get to read the blog as much as I used to. It actually helps to step away from it for awhile to gain some perspective.

Anyway, I had a couple of thoughts:

1. Eclipse cannot survive in this financial environment. I'm surprised they have lasted as long as they have.

2. Even $200 million isn't going to save Eclipse, at least not in Albuquerque. Like the bank bailouts, all this "handout" will do is postpone EAC's eventual demise.

The IOU's are too large, the cash burn too high, the demand too soft, and potential investors too scared by what is happening in the world financial markets.

3. Here in Southern California, it is becoming clearer just how many people were "posing" as being wealthy, as we see multi-million dollar homes go into foreclosure. We can see now that a lot of the wealth we thought was here was nothing more than smoke and mirrors.

We have already seen how so much of what EAC has claimed over the years was nothing more than smoke and mirrors. Roel seems to be hell bent on keeping the fantasy alive as long as possible, but it will soon become clear that the emperor really has no clothes.

4. Lawsuits against EAC - probably too late for that as there as there won't be any money left when the smoke clears.

Niner Zulu said...

Hey Roel, you misspelled your last name.

flyboymark said...

Raymond said:
...."We may expand to hackers, spammers, spyware, and virus implants to deploy against all enemies foreign and domestic."....


Ray,
Remind me to turn yuu into the New Mexico State Attorneys Office for this and locate a federal procicuter in your area to pass this onto also....As a matter of fact I'm gonna do that rite now.....

airtaximan said...

this is getting very interesting...

I suspect, these jokers will soon have an automated phone dialing system in place to provide position-holders and possible aircraft buyer with the "right" information via telephone...

OMG. Someone is really trying hard now.

Its kind of cute, actually, to see what someone thinks EAC folks would say on this blog.

Nice one

EclipsePilotOMSIV said...

Ok... this is getting ridiculous. No one in their right mind in the business environment would be dumb enough to say some of the things this "Eclipse staff" has said on this blog. ie Stupid New Mexico government... Sounds like bullshit critic propaganda to me. I highly doubt Roel would spell his own name wrong. You guys are out of control.

flyboymark said...

"Raymond Barratt said...
flyboymark said:

Remind me to turn yuu into the New Mexico State Attorneys Office for this and locate a federal procicuter in your area to pass this onto also....As a matter of fact I'm gonna do that rite now.....

Fly - first, since you can't spell - nobody will take you seriously. Second, you are now a primary target. Third, do you not know how stupid the New Mexico government is which invested in Eclipse? Finally, they couldn't possibly penetrate our fortress, and we have friends in higher places than mere grunt attorneys."

Bring it on bro...You have a very, very rude surprise waiting for you. Your statements show an extreme amount of arrogance and ignorace for a corparate executive.......

EclipsePilotOMSIV said...

And if you guys are who you say you are do me a favor and tell me what the hell is going to happen to the pre-NG planes that don't fall into your plan for 1.5 upgrades. When do those planes get upgrades???

flyboymark said...

EclipsePilot.....


My thoughts too....Comments are too stupid to be from upper management....but.....thier actions do show to be otherwise in the past...
More likely a sore buyer/owner....

julius said...

Raymond,

I am the CIO for EAC.


bad luck - after the CSC deal the CIO became just a non-acting CIO, actually part of the procurement organisation and trying to check the IT budget.
Why didn't the CIO get a better job at CSC?

You selected the profile of a loser! You should read the blog!

But don't worry there some winners!
Or did you just select your own profile?

Julius

Raymond Barratt said...

airtaximan wrote:

"suspect, these jokers will soon have an automated phone dialing system in place to provide position-holders and possible aircraft buyer with the 'right' information via telephone..."

Although I take offense at the "jokers" remark, we already thought of the automated telephone answering system for position holders. That idea was rejected because it would give them an answer too quickly, and their time would not be occupied waiting for a call back. We are much too smart for you critics - and every responder now becomes a primary target. (Except for that "gunner/guntrain" guy who blew up our SLAAP suit - he is a much more difficult case and higher targeting will be necessary. Automatic DSU downloads on future Eclipse aircraft will be done by laser beam and whenever within 100 KM of a detected "gunner/guntrain" location will be concentrated on him.)

flyboymark said...

Black Tulip...
Where are you.... ;)

airtaximan said...

"Sounds like bullshit critic propaganda to me."

Actually this is brilliant - someone is discreting the blog, by posting utter garbage under the names of folks at EAC.

I seriously doubt a critic would do this - I think its fair to say this blog has been almost totally void of this kind of tactic on the ciritcs' side.

Again, if this keeps up, Shane will probably have to delete the posts, as they are harmful to the candor of this blog.

PS. leave BT out of it, his spoofs/parody's are designed to be humerous, although the shennanigans at AEC have certainly blurred the lines, and sometime they actually sound real...

eclipso said...

Raymond Barrart said:

....whenever within 100 KM of a detected "gunner/guntrain" location will be concentrated on him.)


Hey Dumbass! They don't go by KM in ABQ.

Certainly no one would think anyone at EAC upper mangement is smzrt enough to be here.

Raymond Barratt said...

Black Tulip will also never become a target since he is one of the few here with a sense of humor.

Shane seems like a fun guy to have a pint or ten in pub, so he is off the list.

flyboymark said...

yep!....AT...the spoof is up...gonna watch the the Dolphins finish losing and have a cold one...

julius said...

airtaximan,

perhaps "mike" was too close to reality....
Some smoke was needed etc.

They may have some fun in trying to annoy the blog. Poor guys and girls...


Julius

Black Tulip said...

Captain, Captain…

We’ve got alien life-forms interfering with our communications and onboard systems. Raise the deflector shields and steer ten degrees starboard. I’ll use the tractor beam when we are in range, and arm the photon torpedoes.

Shane Price said...

Hmmm....

It seems we have some trolls lurking on the blog.

I have reason to suspect that the original mikemcconnell post (and by extension, the whole series) is a work of fiction.

Amusing, but fruitless.

When I've done a little more checking I'll take the appropriate action.

Shnae

Dave said...

There's another new case filed at the Bernalillo County Metropolitan Court (which is a state court rather than a federal court where the depositors' cases have been filed) where it is Comac Capital v Eclipse for "breach of contract, prima facie tort and violation of the Unfair Trade Practices Act." The attorneys for Comac are Heather Meade Breen and Frith Gilbert Houston.

This is a profile that I found for a Comac Capital Inc in Florida:
Comac Capital Inc Profile

baron95 said...

Flight Global Interview with Vern Published Friday...

Interview: Raburn relaxes after sprinting a marathon

Enjoy...

baron95 said...

He [Vern] says he turned up at NBAA, flying the leased Eclipe 500 he received as part of his severance package, because "I didn't have anything else to do."

So I guess that settles the status of the Eclipse he is flying.

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

Wow, I keep my nose to the grindstone for a while and come back to see the Faithful impersonating the head shed at Eclipse to try and discredit the blog.

And, can we find another way to suggest something does not add up than to say it smells fishy, y'all guys are going to give me a complex.

WhyTech said...

Flight Global Interview with Vern Published Friday... in which he says,

"I really like starting things and I'd say I was uniquely good at doing that."

This guy is unbelievably out of touch with reality!

baron95 said...

Still from Flightglobal interview...

The company's financial problems stemmed from decisions taken early in the certification process from which Eclipse struggled to recover. "We screwed up on certification. I have never claimed otherwise," he says. "We took big bets on Williams and Avidyne [the original engine and avionics suppliers which were replaced after problems with their equipment]. Williams cost us up to $200 million and two plus years. Avidyne delayed a lot of the functionality we needed around certification. We were pretty seriously wounded."

With that we can all agree...

WhyTech said...

"And, can we find another way to suggest something does not add up than to say it smells fishy, y'all guys are going to give me a complex."

If it smells like a fish, must be a fish. No one said the smell was objectionable, after all. Calm down. Dont get your fins in an uproar!

baron95 said...

And now the scarey part from the Flightglobal interview...

A business he says fascinates him is space tourism - one of his many claims to fame is that he introduced Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen to Scaled Composites' Burt Rutan - a meeting that ended up providing the funds for SpaceShipOne. He even hints that Branson - whose Virgin Galactic venture plans to offer suborbital flights from 2010 - has offered him a job. Watch this space.

So he fails at 41,000 ft ,but thinks he can succeed at 410,000 ft. God save us all.

baron95 said...

Scary even. ;) Sorry SA-11.

airtaximan said...

I do not see anything wrong with Vern - I would hire him in a second... to raise money.

1- he has been involved in many failed businesses in the last 35 years or so, and burned a lot of money along the way...

2- he has before claimed (a few times)revolutionary business models and technologies that ended up way off the mark...

- AND still, he was able to raise a ton of cash for EAC... an almost completely nonsensical project, that needed orders of magnitude more demand than ever before in GA.... and had technical risk upon risk with marginal projected benefits if any at all...

My only concern would be, can he rasie money for things that make sense?

Seriously, he is an amazing guy... and should get all the credit in the world for raising all that money... even after program failure, after failure...

He should not get any credit as a revolutionary, "start up guy", aviation executive, visionary, or award winner...NOPE. Not even credit as the first VLJ or best selling VLJ.... If Cessna wanted to blow its load and deliver all its orderbook in a year or two, it could have... but why?

So, he's just a money-raising machine. Damn amazing money raising machine

THAT'S FOR SURE

Dave said...

Also in the Vern interview Vern talks about mass production of aircraft. It's not that it can't be done, it's just that you also have to have mass buyers. Vern (and now Roel) have never demonstrated that there would be a sufficient amount of customers for the price/volume. Instead Eclipse has had to repeatedly had to have trumped up orders in order to justify the business model. The name of the game is profit and if you manufacture 1000 aircraft for $1 million each, but there are only buyers for 500 per year at that price point, that is just bad business. DayJet served to demonstrate there was some demand, but it was off by a power of 10 or more as you're not going to get 1.5% of the daily business travelers to fly an Eclipse aircraft, which means the Eclipse model is flawed.

Dave said...

My only concern would be, can he rasie money for things that make sense?

Vern Raburn is very much like SCO CEO Darl McBride (whom Ed Iacobucci is connected with by being the former board member who chaired the $5 billion dollar lawsuit against IBM, which SCO is now in BK and their claims have been discredited). McBride has been a good salesman like Raburn, but both were selling things that weren't actually legit. I think it is easy to sell something if you are willing to say anything irrespective of if it is true or not. I think Vern's personality is a natural fit to sales, but I don't think he'd be a spectacular salesman if he was something besides vapor.

baron95 said...

Dave, I love you man - you are a great contributor to this Blog - one of the reasons I continue to read it.

But, boy, you have a hard-on for SCO, don't you.

Can you please tell us the story once and for all - what was you connection? You don't miss even half an opportunity to bring it up.

Which part of the SCO story are you referring to? The Unix/Linux law suit part?

Dave said...

But, boy, you have a hard-on for SCO, don't you.
Can you please tell us the story once and for all - what was you connection? You don't miss even half an opportunity to bring it up.
Which part of the SCO story are you referring to? The Unix/Linux law suit part?


Baron, actually I don't really follow the SCO cases that much any more. I know the regulars are familiar with SCO with me bringing it up in the past, just I don't presume the readership is the same as the last time I mentioned it, so I felt the need to contextualize my comments as some new reader would have no idea if I said SCO and left it at that. There's things that we regulars on this blog know and don't need it explained to, but just because we know, we can't always assume the rest of the readership doesn't need any sort of explanation or backstory.

Dave said...

Oh and Baron I do miss opportunities to bring SCO up. It was through SCO that I learned about Constructive Trusts. You saw no mention then. I do feel it important to bring up SCO by name sometimes because I believe SCO is instructive on what will happen with Eclipse.

airsafetyman said...

"I highly doubt Roel would spell his own name wrong."

I'm not too sure of that; he doesn't seem to be the sharpest pencil in the box. He did, however, have enough sense to get out of the country.

baron95 said...

Dave said...
I do feel it important to bring up SCO by name sometimes because I believe SCO is instructive on what will happen with Eclipse.


Fair enough ;)

baron95 said...

And you thought the Eclipse AP disconnects were bad, huh.

That is kids play compared to this

FreedomsJamtarts said...

I don't think it is fair to compare the EA500 to the A330.

A/P runaways are normally classified as unsafe conditions with hazardous consquences (In the 1309 system safety assessment). As such, they should not occur more frequently than 1x10^-9 flight hours (They should NEVER occur, but you can't substantiate never occuring, whereas there are established methods to substantiate probablity <1x10^-9).

I don't know the total flight hours of the A330 fleet (about 560 A/C delivered), but would guess it would be in the area of 10 Million.

You can bet that a massive effort will be asserted by Airbus to identify the root cause of the A330 issue, and that the authorities will mandate the corrective action through AD.

In comparison, the Partial Eclipses has multiple reported A/P issues with only about 20,000 flight hours. The FAA has it's head in the sand, and hasn't AD'd some unsafe conditions which have already been identified. The company can't fix problems even if it wants too. The fow chart for Root cause investigation by Eclipse goes like this:

Step 1: Blame the pilot

Step 2: Blame suppliers

Step 3: Blame the NTSB

Finished.

Shane Price said...

TO WHOM IT MAY CONCERN

Several 'identities', including (but not limited to) 'mikemcconnell', 'roel peiper' (sic), 'peg billson' and 'raymond barratt' made comments on this thread over the past 36 hours.

I've carried out some checks (my spies are everywhere) and had one of my more sinister friends investigate the writing style.

As a result of these enquiries comments from these listed 'identities' have been deleted from the thread.

I am little sad, as I understand it's almost impossible to get anyone from EAC to talk at this time.

Shane

FreedomsJamtarts said...

We shouldn't worry about Trolls. Every forum gets their visits. The most important thing is to ignore them (sorry, I was also guilty of not ignoring them). Trolls soon pack up and move on when ignored.

baron95 said...

FreedomsJamtarts said...
I don't think it is fair to compare the EA500 to the A330.


I agree. The EA500 autopilot just goes off-line with nice visual and aural warnings, and the pilot wakes up and takes over, no drama.

The A330 AP goes off line, but no really, really, off-line, it still asks the FBW computer to command wild pitch excursions causing a -2G launch of ocupants around the cabin with multiple serious injuries, including, IIRC 14 with broken bones.

The issue was not the primary failure and AP disconnect. The issue is that the plane SW went bezerk and commanded wild pitch excursions after the failure and "supposedly disconnecting".

I love Airbus. But we can't excuse their SW anymore. Look at the multiple fatal A320 accidents, latest one at CGH, where SW commanded full thrust on landing because of minor misconfiguration of the plane by the crew.

This is realy very bad and we need to acknowledge it, fix it, but most importantly, learn from it - how did this code or failure mode get through to a contemporary heavy airliner?

baron95 said...

Like it wasn't obvious from the start that these were fake posters.

However, I do think that the Eclipse leadership does respond directly to this Blog. But they do it in their customer and press communications. If you took the time to listen to some of the customer calls, you'll see that the issues raised here are being directly countered (occasionally acknowledged) by the Eclise leadership.

Obviously, that is the appropriate way for them to respond. It would be insane for them to post anything here - nothing to gain.

Just like even the Eclipse enthusiasts, Ken et all, have nothing more to gain posting here and left.

Shane Price said...

Baron,

Thanks for the Flighglobal Vern interview. While he admits he may have been wrong (he didn't see his own exit coming) 'others' were to blame.

- Inventory management was poor. Was that the supplier or EAC? Either way, it's his fault in not spotting the problems and dealing with them earlier.

- Williams 'cost us $200 million and two years'. Who decided to go with a unique (for Williams) three spool engine design? That would have been Vern Raburn, I think.

- "DayJet was getting 98% reliability on their newest airplanes" I call BS on this one. Just too many reports from DayJet to the contrary.

As usual, Vern is self serving when talking to the press. His 'name dropping' was shameless and gives those requesting a refund no comfort.

Shane

Shane Price said...

COMPETITION TIME

Rumor has it that Vern is due to get his very own FPJ, as part of his 'settlement' with Roel.

Suggestions for the tail number to

eclipsecriticng@gmail.com

Winner (funniest/most apt/rudest) gets a splendid lunch in Ireland.

Shane
PS I believe I know the answer....

Orville said...

VR FPJ registration:

It will be Canadian.

C-FUKT

Orville said...

oops - my apologies for posting to the blog instead of emailing.

Shane Price said...

COMPETITION UPDATE, No. 1

My, you lot are on the ball today.

Already had half a dozen responses....
I'm officially excluding Orville, who will have to enter another one via the approved channel.

Why?

1. Because I can.

2. Because I have family in Canada, so I won't have idiots abused on the blog.

Oooops....

This will have to be a (very) short competition, as I expect 'news' in the next 24 hours. Put it another way. There's loads' of heavy stuff hitting the inbox.

Shane

Dave said...

This will have to be a (very) short competition, as I expect 'news' in the next 24 hours. Put it another way. There's loads' of heavy stuff hitting the inbox.

Hopefully Eclipse has found someone to keep the comedy rhodium coming. I'd love to know who would throw $200M+ based on producing and selling 1000 units per year.

Dave said...

Sun Country Industries, founded in Albuquerque in 1950, has vacated its main office and manufacturing building in order to consolidate at three locations within walking distance of each other on Gruber Avenue.
The 28,750-square-foot building at 4516 Anaheim NE was underutilized by Sun Country, a manufacturer of components and assemblies primarily for the aerospace industry, said Ken Hodges, senior vice president and general manager.
"We were probably only using half of the building from a manufacturing perspective," he said.
The company regrouped at its existing buildings at 6801 Gruber NE and 6920 Gruber NE, then added another 5,000 square feet by leasing at nearby Gruber Avenue Business Center. The company still occupies more than 50,000 square feet total in the area off southbound Pan American NE, south of Osuna.
The 5,000 square feet at the business center was planned as a manufacturing cell to make mechanical components for the flight control systems of Albuquerque-based Eclipse Aviation's very light jet. A manufacturing cell is where work stations are arranged so that a machinist takes a part and, moving from one station to the next, processes it from start to finish.
"We produce about $12,000 per aircraft in parts for Eclipse," Hodges said.
The cell for Eclipse hasn't been set up yet as the 10-year-old jet maker has scaled back production in order to retool its assembly line and raise more money from investors. Eclipse has said it expects to begin ramping up jet production either later this year or in early 2009.
Sun Country currently has about 100 employees, down from 121 a year ago, Hodges said. Part of the reduction results from a move toward "a lean manufacturing philosophy," as illustrated by the cell for Eclipse, he said. The reduction also results from the scale back at Eclipse.
"They've really impacted our work flow," he said. "We know they're struggling with some of their reinvestment, but we see them as a very viable company."
Now a division of McNally Industries of Grantsburg, Wisc., Sun Country's bread-and-butter is making precision components for jet aircraft engines for customers such as General Electric and Orlando, Fla.-based Rockwell Collins. The company sees Europe as a prime growth market.
"With the U.S. dollar being so weak against other currencies, we look good in pricing compared to European companies," he said. "They see us as a real value."
The company's former building on Anaheim, between Alameda and Paseo del Norte, is being marketed for sale or lease by Jim Smith and a team of brokers at CB Richard Ellis. The asking sale price is just over $2 million, while the asking lease rate is $8 a square foot.

ABQ Journal

gadfly said...

To look into the history of “Sun Country”, is to look into one of the most unique stories of just plain fairness and honesty in industry. Two men were in the process of opening a new business, and the senior partner suddenly died of a heart attack. The “junior” partner, Al Ekberg, went ahead . . . opened the business, and treated the young widow as if her husband was still in charge. The business, in time, survived and thrived. Al Ekberg eventually retired . . . a man of high integrity . . . and at one time, my friend. His visits were always a “highlight” . . . he would begin his conversation to me as “Young Man . . .” . . . no one else called me “young”.

Al’s word was good as gold . . . a man without guile!

At various times, Sun Country was a customer (we made tooling for them . . . and sometimes were a “sub contractor”, through them for GE Jet Engine Division . . . and sometimes in direct competition) . . . but never in an underhanded manner.

Al Ekberg retired many years ago, but leaves behind a spotless record. His private life, and his business life, were clean and consistent. He stands in stark contrast to many other businessmen.

Sun Country is one of the best . . . and does not deserve the treatment of the likes of Eclipse.

gadfly

Orville said...

Sorry - way off topic - but as one who visits the NTSB site often - and views the monthly list of accident reports...

Anyone know why October has zero entries? They are typically only a few days behind in posting reports.

gadfly said...

Concerning “Sun Country”, I came into the show at mid-term . . . and lost contact a few years before the present events. So, I do not have a “handle” on the present events. For a company to have survived for well over fifty years says something about its roots.

My own Grandpa’s company lasted in Lincoln, Nebraska, for 101 years . . . although the quality of product diminished greatly from the time he left (in the early 1920's), when engines had been guaranteed for 10 years (we have many examples in our collection that are “running engines” . . . dating back over a century . . . able to chug along at 700 to 900 rpm, hour after hour after hour).

But the point here is that the foundation is ultimately important. A company may go through many changes of ownership . . . yet, if it was originally based on integrity, at least some of that will follow through into the subsequent generations. Future ownership, regardless of intent, will regardless bear a certain fingerprint of the original charter. We get calls from time to time, about parts for “scooters”, airport “carts”, golf carts, etc., and we politely tell the caller that although they have reached the right “person . . . family”, we have had no direct connection with the company for over eighty years. The progressively degrading quality of product took the better part of a century, until Textron finally decided to close it down . . . in 2002. I can’t blame them . . . I would have done it fifty years earlier, regardless of family name and fame. (“May the University of Nebraska enjoy the added and adjacent land and facilities” . . . obtained by imminent domain . . . another topic of discussion . . . and may their tribe be attacked by a million rabid fleas.)

Foundations are everything. Future plans and success depend on sound foundations . . . we read that in the Scriptures. But build on the lies and claims that were presented to the New Mexico politicians, and gullible customers . . . big surprise that the “Mighty House of Eclipse” is fast collapsing . . . and taking all within it to disaster.

Call it a lie . . . a shading of the true . . . a half-truth . . . a “double meaning” . . . you cannot build a company on a falsehood (by any name). Every time, it is doomed to failure. Of course, if you do not know what “truth” looks like in the first place, then don’t except to recognize a lie. A lie is the thing that does not look exactly like the truth. You learn the difference by carefully studying the “truth” . . . then the lie stands out stark naked.

gadfly

baron95 said...

Shane said... "DayJet was getting 98% reliability on their newest airplanes" I call BS on this one.

I don't. But not because the reliability was good, but because of what 98% means at an operation like DayJet. Explanation below.

I'm assuming that the "98% reliability" quoted, means dispatch reliability for THE FLEET. That being the case, it simply means that 2 out 100 trips were cancelled due to equipment problems that could not be fixed during the departure window.

Now... Of the 28 DayJet planes only 10 or so were flying on a regular basis and less than half were utilized at the same time. Lets be generous (to Eclipse) and assume the DayJet departure window is 1 hr.

So on a given day D and departure hour H, I can have 18 EA500 completely unairworthy and out of service, 5 that were on the line but are down for a short term fix, five that were down at departure time, but got fixed within an hour of departure time, and still have 100% dispatch reliavility.

In other words, for an average day of DayJets operation, I had to make my plane line up (batting order for the day) using the best/flyable 10 out 28 planes. Of those 10 I need to have five (half) ready to fly. Of those five, I'd need to detect a problem and fix it within 1 hr of scheduled departure.

How easy is that?

Contrast that with WN's 73G fleet which I'll round to 500 planes to mae the math easy. They fly between 0 and 2 spares dependng on time of year. They have 8 or less (2%) in maintenance (C checks and the like). That means that WN must field every day 490 of 500 planes. Those planes may fly 6 or more sectors a day (up to 18 hours/plane), and a tech delay is logged if the flight can't make it within 15 min of scheduled departure.

Day Jet: Field 10 out 28, with 5 out of 28 (18%) active in a 6 hr window, and 1 hr to prevent a tech delay if a problem is found.

WN: Field 490 out of 500, with all active in a 6 hr window (98% utilization), and 15 min to prevent a tech delay if a problem is found.

If you do the math, a 98% dispatch reliability the DayJet/EA500 way would mean approximately a 4.5% dispatch reliability the WN/73G way.

Now you know the "rest of the story". As usual, Vern is prob 100% correct, but you need to know how he is defining the terms of the "true statement".

Marcus Adolfsson said...

DayJet fleet for sale

Eclipse Aviation is selling a fleet of 28 former DayJet Eclipse 500® jets. These aircraft are available for immediate purchase and each will be sold in different stages of operational capability. The aircraft have between 150 and 450 cycles on them. Each is branded in the DayJet interior colors and livery and each jet was serviced and maintained by the Eclipse Aviation Service Center in Gainesville, Florida, or by DayJet technicians. Each aircraft has some of the original OEM warranty remaining. None of these aircraft offered for sale currently has Avio 1.5 or FIKI capability.

Dave said...

DayJet fleet for sale

In reading the ad, I see the automotive influence - I felt like I was reading about a used car sale. So is Eclipse doing this now because Roel got caught with his hand in the cookie jar with his talk of Eclipse refurbishing the DayJet fleet to then send to ETIRC territory?

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