Just so you all know, preparing this was a lot of fun for your humble custodian. Remember that it was Turbopro_Pilot, who made the original suggestion of a list like this. It is intended for the DOT investigations into the original granting of the TC and PC to Eclipse Aviation. I asked for a 'Top Five' with the idea that this would encourage everyone to choose their 'pet hates' about the aircraft. However, many people chose to pick on the company, in whole or in part. So I've decided to do the original 'Top Ten' on the FPJ itself, and then a 'Top Five' about the company. Thanks to all who took part, even those who did not email it and had me trawling through the blog at all hours of the night!
Top Ten Shortcomings of the Fisher Price Jet
1. Repeated tyre failures.
2. Autopilot disconnects far too often, increasing pilot workload.
3. Phostrex is leaking.
4. No independent back up instruments.
5. Poor Avio/AvioNG reliability.
6. No FIKI on existing fleet.
7. No EASA certificate, despite many promises.
8. Incomplete systems as demonstrated by 'INOP' stickers as standard.
9. Aircraft as built may not conform to Type Certificate.
10. Door failures.
These are the real issues which need to be drawn to the attention of the DOT investigation. I have the address and contact details and propose, after a fair period of review by you, my peers, to send it on. Let's allow 5 days from today for comment. If there is something enough people feel strongly about, I can change the order or the content, but ONLY as it affects this aircraft.
The other items, which have become part of the vote, I have condensed as follows. Clearly, Vern is the winner, by miles. I just wanted that to be part of the record, even if he is now 'history' as far as the day to day running of the company is concerned. I should also state that more than one source confirms he has indeed left, but has only done so with what appears to be poor grace. Again, there is little point in putting this list in front of an investigator, but it will form part of the record and may be of some use to parties who find themselves in dispute with EAC.
Top Five Shortcomings of Eclipse Aviation Corporation
1. Vern Raburn.
2. Future viability in doubt.
3. Spurious order book.
4. High staff turnover, especially at manager level.
5. Mixed status of the fleet, leading to maintenance problems.
On a different topic, and just to lift the mood. Back in the good old days of Christmas 2002, when Vern was still popular with the 230 staff at EAC, they decided to buy him a Christmas present. Unsure what 'the man who had everything' would appreciate, they got him a wheelbarrow.
A wheelbarrow?
You know, to help him carry his 'you know whats' around, which at the time were highly regarded by the staff for their enormous (metaphorical) size. Some still think he never 'got' the joke...
Finally, the 'For Sale' sign above was spotted 'on the ramp' at Oshkosh. Thanks to all of you who a) noticed and b) thought of me. I chose the clearest photo and did indeed get permission to use it here. If Eclipse want it for their advertising, I'm sure the photographer would agree a suitable fee.
Payable in advance, of course.
UPDATED SUNDAY 10th August
As promised, we've kicked the list around for a while now, and this is the latest version. I have used Dave Ivedorn's as the basis, with a few slight mods to reflect the broadest possible consensus. This thread will run until Tuesday/Wednesday (depending on your time zone...) when our 'next' topic will reveal itself.
'Top Ten Shortcomings, FPJ, V 2.0
1. Repeated tire failures on landing:
a. Landing gear originally engineered for a 4800# MTOW aircraft - maximum landing weight now 5600#; MTOW 5995#
b. Lack of anti-skid
c. Lack of speed brakes leads to unstable approach / excessive landing speed when sharing terminal airspace with faster transport category aircraft.d. Lack of ground spoilers.
2. Frequent failures of integrated control system ( Avio / Avio NG ), leading to increased pilot workload:
a. Frequent & random autopilot disconnections.
b. Frequent loss of trim control.
c. Throttle/FADEC software flaw induces cross-controlled operation during critical phases of flight.
d. Full functionality of Avio system has never been achieved, resulting in vestigial controls and hardware on aircraft - witness numerous INOP placards on glareshield, as well as non-functional autothrottles.
e. Transponder behavior erratic, with spontaneous shutdowns & randomly changing IDs.
3. Fire supression system performance doesn't conform to manufacturer-defined maintenance schedule - with frequent leaks of an extreme corrosive in concealed locations.
4. No independent back up instruments.
5. Certification irregularities - despite several unresolved safety / regulatory issues identified by aircraft certification engineers & flight test pilots, a TC was issued "from afar", in a manner which seemed only to accommodate the timing of performance bonuses for FAA management ( with the collateral effect of affecting a possible refund event for Eclipse depositors ).
6. Inadequate windshield integrity.
7. Aircraft as built may not conform to type certificate - manufacturing revisions necessary for faster production are inadequately documented, and not reflected in the reference blueprints for the aircraft.
8. Apparent moisture problems with pitot / static / AOA system, leading to frequent CAS false alarms.
9. Inadequate progress on retrofitting delivered aircraft, especially FIKI & avionics.
10. Behavior / integrity of aluminum structures assembled with friction stir welding not well understood over time, especially if operated in saline ( or otherwise corrosive ) environments.
a. Frequent & random autopilot disconnections.
b. Frequent loss of trim control.
c. Throttle/FADEC software flaw induces cross-controlled operation during critical phases of flight.
d. Full functionality of Avio system has never been achieved, resulting in vestigial controls and hardware on aircraft - witness numerous INOP placards on glareshield, as well as non-functional autothrottles.
e. Transponder behavior erratic, with spontaneous shutdowns & randomly changing IDs.
3. Fire supression system performance doesn't conform to manufacturer-defined maintenance schedule - with frequent leaks of an extreme corrosive in concealed locations.
4. No independent back up instruments.
5. Certification irregularities - despite several unresolved safety / regulatory issues identified by aircraft certification engineers & flight test pilots, a TC was issued "from afar", in a manner which seemed only to accommodate the timing of performance bonuses for FAA management ( with the collateral effect of affecting a possible refund event for Eclipse depositors ).
6. Inadequate windshield integrity.
7. Aircraft as built may not conform to type certificate - manufacturing revisions necessary for faster production are inadequately documented, and not reflected in the reference blueprints for the aircraft.
8. Apparent moisture problems with pitot / static / AOA system, leading to frequent CAS false alarms.
9. Inadequate progress on retrofitting delivered aircraft, especially FIKI & avionics.
10. Behavior / integrity of aluminum structures assembled with friction stir welding not well understood over time, especially if operated in saline ( or otherwise corrosive ) environments.
So there you have it. I dropped the 'door issue' and promoted the pitot mess as more than one pilot has raised that specifically with me in the past. As one of you noted, generally democracy is fine, but every now and then someone has to be a dictator. So, unless I'm run out of town before Wednesday, I propose to pass this version onto the appropriate authority.
And if you really, REALLY feel strongly about an item that didn't make the list, or is not visible enough on this one, email me.
eclipsecriticng@gmail.com
Shane
351 comments:
«Oldest ‹Older 201 – 351 of 351Can anyone explain to me how all of this makes sense?
Roel was of course lying that he's trying to get Eclipse up to 2 per day. He's got other plans. Also the less staff you have, the fewer you build, so it creates a very predicatable cycle. Roel is shutting Eclipse down, just he needs plausible deniability that is what he is doing and hence he gives a cover story.
Shane,
They should just blame the layoffs on the housing and credit crisis, high price of fuel, economic resession and the war in Iraq.
Vern is Chaiman of Internationalization...
Should tell you something
They should just blame the layoffs on the housing and credit crisis, high price of fuel, economic resession and the war in Iraq.
DayJet has already done the credit crisis bit and claimed high fuel prices were good. I'm waiting for Eclipse to claim they're working a model for the military.
Eclipse has already produced more than 200 aircraft for the military. The Extinct 500 will make an excellent target drone.
I have mentioned this before, reliable sources have said Eclipse was among the clients not paying Butler International.
I suspect we wll see further layoffs, getting into the 'permanent' staff, within the next 30 to 60 days, probably the same size as this 'temporary worker' layoff.
If there are no new airframes being put on the line as rumored it will be up to the last guy out to turn off the lights.
ColdWet,
My sources only mention one of the lines. There are, I understand, two.
Sources in the supplier community indicate that EAC will try and cut cost in this area as well.
Imagine the conversation:-
'Hi, John here with Eclipse, I need you to cut 25% off the cost of everything you sell us'
Jack responds 'So let me get this right, you want me to cut the price I get, on a volume that's less that a quarter of what you promised?'
'That's about it, in a nutshell, but there is one other small thing' John responds.
'What?' says Jack
'We would prefer to pay you with completed aircraft, delivered in a few years time'
Click, bzzzz.
'Jack, are you still there? Jack, I need an answer...'
Shane
My prediction:
This company effectively ceases to exist by Sept 15. (Effectively meaning, ceases production, BK, closes doors, etc).
It's over.
Gunner
A thought to keep in mind....These were a 190 "positions". They have been filled several times by contractors, however, most only stay for a short while (until they find out the reality there). So, hwile it's safe to say some have been there for a while, most of the contractor positions are like a revolving door.
My prediction remains the same...Sep 8
Interesting data in the GAMA delivery reports.
Cessna has been ramping up the old Columbia product line and have delivered 52 between the 350 and 400. During the same time frame (1st half 2008) Cirrus delivered 239 aircraft.
Why is that important?
Because total employment at Cirrus, who is presently delivering 500-600 Technologically Advanced planes per year, is about 1250. And these are planes with many of the same kinds of systems as used in the Eclipse (integrated avionics, air conditioning, autopilots, etc.).
Eclipse is, by my recokoning, suffering from bloated staffing ranks intended to fool everyone into thinking they can reach that magical production number that in thier heads opens up the IPO.
As we have repeatedly discussed here before however, there are very likely not enough real orders left to justify a production rate any faster than what they are presently doing.
As news of the refund delays and retrofit delays reach the wider customer community, I predict fewer and fewer takers when the progress payment call is made - actually accelerating the breakdown of the vaporware order book.
Death spiral indeed.
That fat lady sure has a good singing voice. I heard her warming up with "Turn out the lights, the party's over".
The refunding figure that I heard was $130M.
EAC has been another nasty lesson for hard working folks. We are used to it in the rust belt states. Good luck to all.
Shane, I have always been a Scotch drinker, but I tried Jameson. You guys sure know how to make a smooth whiskey.
Shane said: My sources only mention one of the lines. There are, I understand, two.
They just run them thru side by side. That way they can run them past when they have a holdup / problem with one.
$130M would represent just about the entire non-vaporware orderbook by my reckoning - even I find that hard to believe.
But then again, if I had waited 4 or 5 years (or more), through all the drama, and was then told my price was almost doubled, and not only would I not get a completed aircraft, I would have to wait an unspecified time for retrofits, from a company that appears to be on very shaky financial ground, I would probably try and get my money back and get on the waiting list for an Epic LT ASAP.
But then, I would have never been in that predicament and would have already be on the Epic LT waiting list, it actually does what the OEM says it will do.
CWMR,
It was my understanding that the money came from E-TRICK when Roel took over. I have not been able to verify reliably.
CWM,
I agree and could never understand Vern’s bragging about head count. Most business folks are proud of how few people the company requires to do the job. Imagine the Eclipse revenue stream while having two thousand mouths to feed. If it were a public company it wouldn’t be called a revenue stream but cash flow as all sales have been conditional.
Mike Press has an interesting marketing update on the Eclipse Lovers Club website. He lists six different configurations of the Eclipse 500. The Boeing B-17 was built in many variants, getting up to the B-17G – but we were at war then.
Chickasaw, are you saying the $130M is what Roel put in or that is the total amount of refunds requested by cistomers - big diffference.
I had heard that Roel's investment was about $110M so that is not too different, but I figure the refund liability at ~$40-50M.
Just trying to make sure we are talking about the same things here.
But then again, if I had waited 4 or 5 years (or more), through all the drama, and was then told my price was almost doubled, and not only would I not get a completed aircraft, I would have to wait an unspecified time for retrofits, from a company that appears to be on very shaky financial ground, I would probably try and get my money back and get on the waiting list for an Epic LT ASAP.
They double the price, freeze refunds and freeze retrofits. Bad news whether you already have an FPJ or are a position holder.
So the prop-driven Mooneys are now the latest airplane not manufactured by Eclipse that offer Synthetic Vision with Garmin's G1000.
They also offer moving map GPS, TAWS, 3D TCAS imagery, and the other features the G1000 brings to cockpits right now, today.
240 knots, 25,000 feet, 1445nm range and only $600K - 2/3 the performance for just over 1/4 the cost of the FPJ, not bad.
Congrats to Mooney and Garmin.
So the prop-driven Mooneys are now the latest airplane not manufactured by Eclipse that offer Synthetic Vision with Garmin's G1000.
Vern said that the FPJ would have the most advanced avionics short of the military and large commercial aviation and now as usual Eclipse is going cheap and shorting their customers. If Eclipse will short customers on basic safety features, they'll short customers on other things as well.
I believe that all along Vern knew the production numbers could never be met nor could many other things like the price. I think that the best thing to happen was the Williams problem because that short-circuited the IPO. If there had been an IPO things would be much worse and before Eclipse went under more than a couple hundred could have been put out on the market.
Some New DayJet Utilization charts
Distinct growth trend in number of fields served each week, which is as the news reports. Flight number, duration and cumulative hours are stagnant; consequently average usage per field is declining.
Note the very distinct erosion in usage following each roll out episode (end of Sept, January, March, May).
Top 10 fields other than KGNV and KBCT are also presented as a separate data series, since newly added fields may dilute the more mature destinations when measuring tally per week values.
Dayjet has expanded to a dispersed "charter" style flight model, average tally per field per week is under 5 for the 10 busiest fields other than KBCT+KGNV. The "network" affect that permits higher utilization does not appear to have kicked in to any substantial degree. (average flight length is steady)
One would assume that increasing the OD pairs would have a positive effect on the Dayjet system... ie. more passengers, due to more destinations possible.
So, any takers on explaining how come they do not see any growth?
This might be an unprecedented phenominon in the airlines business... ones with unlimited planes on the ground, in any case.
Dayjet has expanded to a dispersed "charter" style flight model, average tally per field per week is under 5 for the 10 busiest fields other than KBCT+KGNV. The "network" affect that permits higher utilization does not appear to have kicked in to any substantial degree. (average flight length is steady)
I think the network effect has long since already kicked in for DayJet. I believe the network effect is extremely limited because DayJet is regional. The areas where the network effect has the greatest impact is when you are dealing with something that is boundless whereas by being regional DayJet by definition isn't boundless.
One would assume that increasing the OD pairs would have a positive effect on the Dayjet system... ie. more passengers, due to more destinations possible.
So, any takers on explaining how come they do not see any growth?
More people are familiar with DayJet/Eclipse in a bad way, the supposed novelty has worn off and all the low hanging fruit has already been picked and it turns out there wasn't much there (low hanging fruit being passengers who are semi-regular).
There is no growth because there are no customers - pretty simple really, and it has been staring us in the face since last fall.
The russian ant farmers and their complex algorithms were all wet, probably because they were operating from one or more bad assumptions all along.
Hmmm, now where else have we seen that.
Nothing to see here, move along.
To clarify, it is not so much that there are not customers for charter/air taxi, because there are already 15,000 or so planes providing this service every day.
It is that the Eclipse is the wrong jet, and DayJet has the wrong model - you have to BE one of the Russian Ant Farmers to be able to figure out their 'time arbitrage' pricing model - people want simplicitly, reliability, and efficiency - DayJet and Eclipe, separately or together, provide NONE.
Scomberomorus cavalla writes: DayJet has the wrong model - you have to BE one of the Russian Ant Farmers to be able to figure out their 'time arbitrage' pricing model - people want simplicitly, reliability, and efficiency...
That hits the nail on the head. The customer wants a ride to a destination, not a bizarre moving time and price target.
If the ant-farmers felt they could assign different opportunity costs to trips (for Dayjet's internal fleet cost), they should of done so strictly internally, and offered firm and simple pricing structure to the consumer.
ALBUQUERQUE, N.M.—An Albuquerque aviation manufacturer has released about 190 temporary workers.
Eclipse Aviation says it's not a layoff since it does not affect any permanent Eclipse employees. The company says its total employment remains at about 1,865.
Eclipse spokeswoman Alana McCarraher says the temporary employees basically worked on a contract-type basis for a certain time. With the release, they will return to their agency for job placement.
Eclipse says the reduction in work force is based on efforts to reduce expenses and be better positioned financially.
The company in October also released dozens of temporary workers who were no longer needed to produce the company's very light jet airplane, the Eclipse 500.
As I stated to the BLOG a few weeks ago, we (CONTRACTORS) where told to go direct or get cut soon. I left but on Friday the axe fell, and I knew this was coming because the change in the guard. As I stated I start at Bell and many others where leaving anyway and as one of the BLOGGERS (CHARITY) said, it is all there experienced workers that got cut or have left prior. They will never get 2 a day, maybe 2 a week but if they have 1,865 employees at ECLIPSE, they must be in Russia because they aren’t in ABQ. They would be lucky to have 800 between ABQ, Gainesville, and Albany. This company is going down and out before October 1st, MARK MY WORDS. I haven’t been wrong yet!
20 YM
I think what Ed and the Ant Farmers missed is that when it comes to air travel the public has only a few key requirements - the one I failed to mention before is predictability.
When I go to Orbitz or Expedia or AA.com I pick the flights that meet my schedule and my budget to the city I want to go to.
Both schedule and budget are more defined for most people than the ego-centric 'time arbitrage' concept provides for.
Under the SATSAir model, I pick a destination, set a destination time and go.
The variables in scheduling and costs take place in the background, whether it is SABRE or WYVERN or Southwest - the magic of how the sausage is made and kept safely (and thankfully) in the dark.
The arrogance however is that the credit market is to blame, the vendors are to blame.
How refreshing would it be to hear Vern (nee Roel) and Ed just come clean and say, 'you know what, I was wrong', and then work on adopting more workable, dare I say conventional approaches?
20yearmechanic you guys got paid both wages and per-diem (sp?) that was almost as much as your wages but tax free. Maybe the company counted you twice! :-)
Another interesting fact is how often the folks who are actually in Albuquerque question the employment number.
I have been at facilities with thousands of people in them for different OEM's and not once do I recall wondering where all the people were, it was always obvious.
Why then do we hear this same question from people who have either visited or actually worked at the EAC facilities?
I know what Occam says....
I find it AMAZING how all the other companies that make aircraft and use some of the same Suppliers/Vendors as Eclipse, had NO problems getting parts and components, WHY IS THAT?
Is it because they didn’t change the specs every 15 days? Or is it because they actually had a production schedule that they submitted for the vendors to meet? Or is it because the Actually PAID for there parts?
DINASORS 1 ECLIPSE 0
What’s more amazing is that the industry rags/mags actually believe all the bullshit and excuses that Vern, Eclipse and the management at Eclipse had fed them as facts! These industry rags have lost all credibility with me, there as reliable as WICKAPEDIA is. The sad thing is that this BLOG has provided more reliable facts to the industry than any of the aerospace rags/rags have ever. Maybe because we here on the BLOG weren’t in the back pocket of the ALL MIGHTY VERNSTER! Oh, wait! THE ALL MIGHTY ROELSTER! NAW! Never mind, they are about to become THE ALL MIGHTY GONESTER!
20 YR
uglytruth said...
20yearmechanic you guys got paid both wages and per-diem (sp?) that was almost as much as your wages but tax free. Maybe the company counted you twice! :-)
You are so right! All that big money paid off my HUMMER. The Strike in Wichita at HAWKER BEACH is paying even more, like $2000 a week. Too bad I have morals and wont cross a picket line. LOL
Bell Helicopters here I come.
20 YM
The sad thing is that this BLOG has provided more reliable facts to the industry than any of the aerospace rags/rags have ever. Maybe because we here on the BLOG weren’t in the back pocket of the ALL MIGHTY VERNSTER! Oh, wait! THE ALL MIGHTY ROELSTER! NAW! Never mind, they are about to become THE ALL MIGHTY GONESTER!
The regular media gets things wrong and is a day late and a dollar short if they even bother at all, but I've found blogs can be way ahead of the curve...just you have to learn how to filter the signal through the noise. In general I think the blogs do is with the bonafide discoveries that are made on them and then having those results spread. This is the second shady company that I've followed on a blog and each time the bloggers as a whole have proven to be right and to be the first to figure things out outside of the companies that are being followed. I think as time goes on this will become more and more prevalent as the semi-professional and amateur investigative reporter takes hold in the media and people turn to the internet more for news. The traditional media can of course get on it, but they have to first recognize that their business model no longer works.
20 yr said:
Eclipse Aviation says it's not a layoff since it does not affect any permanent Eclipse employees. The company says its total employment remains at about 1,865.
Eclipse spokeswoman Alana McCarraher says the temporary employees basically worked on a contract-type basis for a certain time. With the release, they will return to their agency for job placement.
Hypothetically, if BK doesnt happen, and employment remains at 1,865 people...that is still 1,000 too many for their production rate.
Of course EAC had to get rid of the agency people first....like you all have said...Im sure they werent paying the agency.
20yearmechanic said...
I find it AMAZING how all the other companies that make aircraft and use some of the same Suppliers/Vendors as Eclipse, had NO problems getting parts and components, WHY IS THAT?
Is it because they didn’t change the specs every 15 days? Or is it because they actually had a production schedule that they submitted for the vendors to meet? Or is it because the Actually PAID for there parts?
20 yr, I can guarantee its all of the above.
Dave,
While I tend to agree that the 'traditional' journalist is challenged by us bloggers, they do have one significant advantage.
They get paid for what they write!
My 'special subject' is newspaper technology, and that's part of my day job. Newspaper publishers are reaching out to the web and managing a difficult transition.
So, I expect that publishers will seek to buy assets which generate revenue streams. That's what all newspapers actually are, in the end.
Revenue.
This is a concept which EAC seem to have a real difficulty with.
How does cutting production, especially when the spotlight is on them, make any sense at all?
Firing Vern at Oshkosh?
Telling depositors to wait (for their own money) and offering them 6% interest?
Cutting out the contractors who knew what they were doing the week before an FAA audit team arrive?
Putting a further squeeze on suppliers, who are already at the limit?
I just can't make head or tail of it.
There has to be some deeper motive behind these moves.
Shane
In yet another shocking (NOT) example of biased work from the glorified bloggers at the Eclipse Southern PR Office (formerly known as ANN) - no news about Eclipse once again laying off 10% of their workforce.
Normally Eclipse does this (lays off 10% of their workforce) closer to Thanksgiving or Christmas (I think 3 or 4 years in a row now)but we are on an accelerated death spiral this year you know.
While Darth Campbell reported on the layoff of 250 admin and management positions from Embraer, the uh, 4th largest commercial aircraft manufacturer in the world, there has been no word yet on 190 folks being laid off back in the 505.
So a huge company lays off 250 and it is news, a small company lays off 190 and not a mention.
Funny, isn't it.
Blogs are great, but it's up to the readers themselves to determine fact from fiction. Sometimes the reader determines that correctly, sometimes not. A credible publication can only print facts, meaning a journalist has to go a couple extra steps beyond any blogger. That simply takes more time.
While I tend to agree that the 'traditional' journalist is challenged by us bloggers, they do have one significant advantage.
They get paid for what they write!
Actually there are some bloggers that are getting rich off blogging. Arianna Huffington is the most prominent example of creating a blogging business that is worth millions, while there are many other bloggers who are pulling down in the five, six and seven figures for blogging...some do quite well with blogging as a part-time job.
My 'special subject' is newspaper technology, and that's part of my day job. Newspaper publishers are reaching out to the web and managing a difficult transition.
I agree, but it isn't so much the technology as it is the mentality. I know very well that if a newspaper wanted to dig into Eclipse, they could dig up way more than any of us bloggers could, but those aviation publications with the finances that could afford to do it wont because that would be rocking the boat. By us bloggers not being paid, we actually have the advantage in that regard because we have nothing to lose by rocking the boat.
Revenue.
This is a concept which EAC seem to have a real difficulty with.
How does cutting production, especially when the spotlight is on them, make any sense at all?
Firing Vern at Oshkosh?
Telling depositors to wait (for their own money) and offering them 6% interest?
Cutting out the contractors who knew what they were doing the week before an FAA audit team arrive?
Putting a further squeeze on suppliers, who are already at the limit?
I just can't make head or tail of it.
There has to be some deeper motive behind these moves.
It makes perfect sense to me because I'm assuming Roel provided death spiral financing. Roel wants to do everything he can to undermine Eclipse so that way he owns more and more of it without having to put any more money up. However, because he is a fiduciary, he has to have the veneer of acting in Eclipse's best interest...so expect a lot of weird things to happen and a lot of weird explanations as to why. Following the money (or more precisely following where the money was supposed to be), Vern's statements about 1000 planes per year, his $1 million twin engine jet, his bashing the aviation industry as being in the stone age, etc can be explained in him planning on cashing out during an IPO before everyone found out what the real story was in how Eclipse could never achieve those production rates or prices and there was no market for it in the first place (BTW Ed's actions can also be explained be explained by planning on cashing out with an IPO before everyone figured out he was selling snakeoil).
Most anything can be explained by either following the money or alternatively where the person or business expects the money to be. Roel knows Eclipse can't make 2 per day, particularly when Eclipse cuts 10% of their workforce and we know Roel's last round of financing put performance measures on Eclipse, so putting 2 and 2 together, Roel as Eclipse CEO wants Eclipse to fail performance measures so Roel as ETIRC CEO can profit.
To follow up on print media versus blogging, both can succomb to the same problems of biased lazy journalism when they don't want to rock the boat with their advertisers. Bloggers have the advantage in that it costs $0 to produce a blog, so there can both be more bloggers and those bloggers are less likely to be financially influenced by what they are reporting on.
I have for instance seen something similar to what is going on in the aviation industry happen with a tech industry blog. I've followed the SCO case, which was most prominently followed by the Groklaw blog that has also branched off into covering other areas in the software industry. However, now that it has turned out that the former employer of Groklaw's owner is a patent troll suing Google and other companies now, Groklaw has not only refused to cover the patent troll but has attacked anyone for even bringing it up. So bloggers can be influenced by money too where they wont run stories or investigate because they have a financial interest not to do so...but that can be defeated by the sheer volume of bloggers where if one is biased another blogger can pick up the slack and the story eventually gets out.
Roel wants to do everything he can to undermine Eclipse so that way he owns more and more of it without having to put any more money up.
This makes no sense at all. Owning all of something worth nothing isn't what Roel would try to do. When it goes TU, his equity goes to zip and pip. He didn't convert debt to equity to take control, that would be nuts. Debt is much better than equity unless and until the equity is actually worth something.
Need a better explanation than that one!
This makes no sense at all
Actually it is a common practice with death spiral financiers where they don't want what is best for the companies they finance.
Owning all of something worth nothing isn't what Roel would try to do. When it goes TU, his equity goes to zip and pip.
I did not say Eclipse would be worth nothing. I said I believed it was advantageous for Roel when Eclipse didn't hit performance measures (like production rate) because it meant he would own more of it.
Debt is much better than equity unless and until the equity is actually worth something.
Eclipse is worth something. Eclipse isn't worth a billion dollars, but it isn't worth zero either.
tbm_r_us,
Need a better explanation than that one!
Yes... another trial!
As CW wrote Roel will try to control the expenses:
Therefore RP will get rid of all temporary workers/ consultants as they are more expensive than the own people and if they are not well controlled they may even prevent or are an obstacle to improve the quality of the own work force. There must not be a know how transfer from temporary workers to the own work force!
This is at least an experience of the IT sector.
I think RP will initiate all the standard benchmarks...(VR forgot to think about! RP knows/believes to know which figures are needed for an IPO and must be fine!) and the approriate actions.
BTW, I would like to know how RP explains the long time missing home pages of ETIRCs to this students!
I do believe when Eclipse Europe was renamed to Etirc Aviation, there were already doubts about EAC's future. Perhaps VR was already part of ETIRC Aviation S.á.r.
Passing the exclusive license to sell for C. I. S. etc. and finally for Greenland to Kamshatka (eastbound!) to a unexprienced shell company is crazy - but with intentions!
For obtaining the majority RP must have passed some money to the banks. Perhaps he now owns some assets of EAC and has transfered some money home but that's not all his invested money. His objectives might be:
- I want my money back + 1x% p. a.
- Little help for my friends Vern and SCO-Ed (for cash).
EAC TU doesn't return any money and endangers Ed's FAA project (People might ask: why this funny FPJ., DOA product...)!
EAC must be become saleable and stay alife to allow time to transfer more money home.
ETIRC aviation might sell its license to sell ...or might be bought (including expatriates) by EAC.
julius
Please note the 'Top Ten Shortcomings' list has been updated. Check out the revised headline, and email comments to:-
eclipsecriticng@gmail.com
If, that is, you feel strongly enough...
Shane
ASM said ... Nope, wrong AGAIN Baron.
Hummm.... Exactly what part of my statement you quoted is wrong? I think you are confusing incident with accident. It it is a ACCIDENT REPORT and an ACCIDENT INVESTIGATION, the NTSB must assert it is an accident. They can only assert it is an accident if they assert "Substantial Damage", "Fatal Injuries", "Serious Injuries" or similar. Else it is NOT an accident, there can NOT be an accident report and there can NOT be an ACCIDENT investigation.
You should be careful not to confuse the readers of this forum, just to try to make something more out of a garden variety runway overrun accident. There is NO OTHER phrase the NTSB can use in a no-injury accident other than SUBSTANTIAL DAMAGE to assert that an accident occurred and they are asserting jurisdiction to ivestigate.
And the NTSB does send trainees out. They may be accompanied by a staff investigator, but the trainee is the one that does almost all the work on a trivial accident.
Listen. I believe that the E500 should have anti-skid, and perhaps better tires. Still, there is NO excuse for an ATP pilot to fly an approach to a very tight (short and narrow), wet runway, "a little high", "then dippin"p down", "then landing a bit fast".
Some planes will be harder to land than others. That is why we give ourselves more margin on those planes. I don't like to fly the Baron to 3,000x75 wet foot strips. I most likely would not attempt to land a jet with no anti-skid on one. And if I did, I'd be on glide path, exactly on Vref, or I'd go around. No, high, dip, fast S#@$.
CW said ... and would have already be on the Epic LT waiting list,
Does anyone know why Epic cancelled their presence at Oshkosh? My understating is that only two companies cancelled their presence: Adam (for obvious reasons - they ceased operations) and Epic.
Is there anything to it? Sounds odd for a company that has all the buzz on this blog, to just not be there.
CW said ... Congrats to Mooney
I'm assuming you missed the news that Mooney just cut production by 40% from 8 a month to 5 month, because of "DROP IN SALES".
You guys are so selective, it is unbelievable. I like Mooneys, but the company has been in BK, disaray, sticking it to customers (remember the orfan PFM), has horrible, horrible quality problems. And you congratulate them because they release a SW update that GARMIN certified.
Mooney is a zombiee. They have been dead for years, they just refuse to stay in their grave. Soon they'll be like Belanca - producing 2 planes per year.
Once again, I like Mooneys - the first high perfromance retracts I flew, but the thing is an engineering nightmare. Steel cage, that screws up every compass sooner or later when it gets magnetized. Aluminum with thousands of rivets on top. A tight squeeze inside. The WORST landing gear of ANY retractable plane I ever flew. That ATP that crashed the Eclipse, would never be able to land a Mooney flying like that. It does have a great wing, though. I have to give them that.
Shane Price said .... How does cutting production, especially when the spotlight is on them, make any sense at all?
Is that a serious question?
The "inteligecia" in this blog constantly points out that there is little on no demand for the EA500 and that Eclipse loses money on every jet they make.
Perhaps the "inteligencia" can tell you that if you are selling a product below cost with declining demand, cutting production reduces the losses. A $ saved is a $ earned.
You guys are unbelievable. Read the blog postings from a few months back. Everyone saying that Eclipse had to raise prices and cut production.
Well, Eclipse raises prices, cut production, reduces workforce, and you now ask "How does that make sense?"!!!!
Maybe mirage00 was right. I won't repeat his sign-off line, because it was so anoying.
"They can only assert it is an accident if they assert "Substantial Damage", "Fatal Injuries", "Serious Injuries" or similar. Else it is NOT an accident,"
Baron, if you will go to the NTSB website you will find many, many preliminary and final reports on minor aircraft accidents; accidents with little damage and no injury. Accidents that are NOT fatal, serious, or that incur substantial damage.
Regarding the Embraer lay offs....
Let me just say that I am typing this from São Paulo, Brazil, i.e. very close to the action. Most of the postions were egineering positions, with some administrative.
Now. Note that Embraer has basically completed certification work on the E170-195AR family AND has announced risk sharing partners (from China and elsewhere) for their next programs (e.g. Legacy 450/500) and you may get 4 from 2+2.
Is ANN capable of doing ANY investigative or analytical reporting. NO THEY ARE NOT. They are simple a Web reprint of news wire feeds.
Embraer is one of the best managed companies in Brazil, but they still are behind their benchmark peers like Gulfstream, Cessna, etc. They are determined to get there, and they will cut even in good times to get there.
Shane,
"top ten list"
I think the emergency engine shut down "units" are missing.
If AVIO / AVIO NG ist not available there is no access to the engines.
The "units" are not standby instruments.
julius
ASM said ... Accidents that are NOT fatal, serious, or that incur substantial damage.
There is not such thing. Read the definition of an aviation accident.
Perhaps this will help:
ACCIDENT:
As defined by the NTSB, this is an occurrence associated with the operation of an aircraft where as a result of the operation of an aircraft, any person (either inside or outside the aircraft) receives fatal or serious injury or any aircraft receives substantial damage. The occurrence is also not caused by the deliberate action of one or more persons and that leads to damage or injury. The NTSB definition, which is also used by the FAA, divides accidents into four categories:
Major - an accident in which a 14 CFR 121 aircraft was destroyed, there were multiple fatalities, or there was one fatality and a 14 CFR 121 aircraft was substantially damaged.
Serious - an accident in which there was either one fatality without substantial damage to a 14 CFR 121 aircraft, or there was at least one serious injury and a 14 CFR121 aircraft was substantially damaged.
Injury - a nonfatal accident with at least one serious injury and without substantial damage to a 14 CFR 121 aircraft.
Damage - an accident in which no person was killed or seriously injured, but in which any aircraft was substantially damaged.
By the way NTSB Go-teams only got to Major Accidents. As I said before, GA accidents with no injuries get the field office guy/gal with a trainee to do the work. Sad but true. The NTSB has only 400 or so people to take care of sea, air, land transportation safety.
Baron95,
there are many more airplanes which cause lots of problems on a "short" air strip if you do not stick to the AFM.
The difference to "normal" pilots is that you expect that an ATP will always strictly follow the AFM.
Baron95, do you think you will convince someone to invest 2,15+M$ (in EAC) to buy an EA500 NOW?
(Invest = it's "my" tool to make profit)
(Have a look at EAC's history/press releases of 2000 or 2001!)
julius
Baron, here are examples of incidents and minor accidents that must be reported to the NTSB: "An “incident” is defined as “an occurrence other than an accident, associated with the operation of an aircraft, which affects or could affect the safety of operations.” You do not need to report an incident involving a small aircraft except when it involves: 1) Flight control system malfunction or failure; (2) Inability of any required flight crewmember to perform normal flight duties as a result of injury or illness; (3) Failure of structural components of a turbine engine excluding compressor and turbine blades and vanes; (4) In-flight fire; or (5) Aircraft collide in flight; (6) Damage to property, other than the aircraft, estimated to exceed $25,000 for repair (including materials and labor) or fair market value in the event of total loss, whichever is less./2/
Incidents involving large, multiengine aircraft (more than 12,500 pounds maximum certificated takeoff weight) must be reported if they involve: (1) In-flight failure of electrical systems which requires the sustained use of an emergency bus powered by a back-up source such as a battery, auxiliary power unit, or air-driven generator to retain flight control or essential instruments; (2) In-flight failure of hydraulic systems that results in sustained reliance on the sole remaining hydraulic or mechanical system for movement of flight control surfaces; (3) Sustained loss of the power or thrust produced by two or more engines; and (4) An evacuation of an aircraft in which an emergency egress system is utilized."
This blog is clogged with financial silliness.
First off, "death spiral financing" is a mechanism used to bring down small cap public companies. It can't be used for a private company because there is no market for the company's stock.
Second, the notion that somehow Roel is robbing the bank to line the pockets of ETIRC is absurd on the surface. Remember, Roel put in real dollars, at least some and probably all of it in preferred stock. Being in control of the stock of a company gives that shareholder power to elect the directors of the company, who in turn, appoint the CEO and other officers. There hasn't been a change in the board at EAC, just a change from a fired CEO to an acting CEO, who happens to be the largest shareholder. Being in control of the equity does not give one control over BK, that belongs to the debt holders.
Third, when a company files for BK, the equity holders will generally be wiped out, and the debt holders will get cents on the dollar, usually in the form of stock of the company (if it is going to emerge from bankruptcy). So it makes no sense for Roel to attempt to accumulate more equity. He already has effective control of the company, so owning more equity is just going to make him more exposed in any BK proceeding, a proceeding that could be forced on him by others.
Fourth, how can you possibly believe that Roel would be buying bank debt? With what money? For what purpose? Hardly makes sense that a bank is going to sell debt for cents on the dollar. Hardly makes sense that Roel has more cash to throw into this failing mess. If he is putting in more cash, it is in a desperate attempt to salvage the company that he already put too much money into (i.e., throwing good money after bad).
I just don't buy the idea that there is some grand criminal conspiracy underway at EAC, at least not a financial criminal conspiracy. This is simply a failing company, one that failed to produce a viable product. Given that the product itself is a failure, no one can extract value from it, be they Russian, Turkish or shell companies in Luxembourg.
Finally, as to VR and ETIRC Aviation and some deep conspiracy about all of that: VR got fired, and convinced his friend Roel to give him just a little face saving cover on the way out. First part of that was a title at Roel's company, Vice Chairman of Internationalization. That was pure meaningless fluff. All you have to do is watch the interviews with Vern that day to see a man leaving the show completely, uncertain if he'll even return to aviation. The second piece of cover was what Vern said in his parting remarks, echoed in a press release, that EAC had obtained the first money in a new round of financing, a round sufficient to take the company to cash flow positive. That also was pure meaningless fluff. Makes it look like Vern is not a total and complete failure. Funny that this blog, which has so convincingly proved the case that he is in fact a total and complete failure, would then latch on to this crap as proof of some deep conspiracy.
There is no deep conspiracy except in the minds of some bloggers. There is just the dangerous and incomplete FPJ and the extremely poorly managed enterprise that produces it.
Someone said years ago that if Eclipse Aviation failed it would leave a very large crater in Albuquerque. Now we know the dimensions of the crater: over $1B. That failure looms.
Agree 100%, tbms_r_us ... I was in the process of composing my own post along similar lines. You've saved me the trouble.
I would add that before concocting a conspiracy theory, it would be a good idea to consider what your priority actions as the new CEO of Eclipse would be. Compare those with what Roel's done; if there's no significant difference, why do you need a conspiracy theory.
You need to avoid BK at all costs (because you lose all your equity investment, and some/most of your debt), and you need to do it while keeping the media 'on board' as far as possible.
For me, everything RP's doing is in line with what I'd do. Not 'the same as' but 'in line with'.
ceri,
what about annointing Vern as Co-chair of ETRICK's internationalization?
I personally think the license agreement is bullet proof, and if there's any value to this company, Etrick gains it through the license, not the investment.
PS. Does anyone KNOW how much ETRICK paid into EAC as an "investment"? We've heard $100M... but no one has revealed here the flavor or amount of that "investment".
I don't think tis what we supposed it was, in amount, or the way it was invested... here's why:
It would be simple for a real bank to have installed an aviation person to take over the company from Vern... the only fool that would choose Roel, is himself. Leads me to believe he is the "bank". In one way or another, he's it.
I think they will ramp down ABQ... there's nothing left to build, anyway... if by chance they ressurect Dayjet or even their own Euro-orders... they will keep a scaled down factory for "show" until they conclude an overseas plant is feasible... if they find a sucker...er, I mean money to build EAC overseas, they will do that, and close ABQ and leave town with the rights/designs, etc...
Why waste time fighting here, when you can just leave?
Julius said ... Baron95, do you think you will convince someone to invest 2,15+M$ (in EAC) to buy an EA500 NOW?
What gives you the impression that I want to do such a thing? The fact that I am capable to see both sides of the issue?
I'm on the reccord saying that I made up my mind not to trust Eclipse, right around the time Eclipse made the single EJ22 powered flight (unsafe IMHO) just to lock in deposits only to announce that the engine was DOA and the program was on hold till new engines were ready.
They have been using engineering and business expediency (a.k.a kludges and half solutions) ever since. I would NOT buy, nor recomend that any average joe piot buys an EA500 in its present incarnation.
The EA500 has an unnaceptable avionics stack that is NOT fixable. It has some other minor airframe/systems issues typical of a new design. Eclipse has a complete lack of straight communication and transparency. I do not buy these types of products from these types of companies. EVER (at least not knowingly)
I have chosen to buy Cessna (slower and uglier than most) and Beechcraft (more expensive and heavy than most) because of the better than average engineering, support and reputation of the companies and the parend entities which at time of my purchases were General Dynamics, Textron, Raytheon.
I buy Merceds Benz cars (more expensive and ugly than most) because I ALWAYS get straight talk from the sales, service and engineering departments. I can write or call Mercedes HQ with a question on my AMG and actually get routed to the guy that built my engine - how is that for a concept????!!!!!
But I am also mature enough to know that:
1 - Eclipse has the highest single model jet build rate in all of civil aviation - no small feat.
2 - Eclipse is THE ONLY start up company in the last 40 years to certify, build and deliver a civil jet airplane - no small feat.
3 - The runway overun accident sequence was initiated by an ATM pilot (in his own words) flying a jet to a short, narrow, wet runway too high, then dipping to correct and crossing the threshhold too fast.
There is no need to make EVERYTHING Eclipse/Vern did as bad. They did some pretty awesome things that have not been done since Lear. Start a new company and certify/build jets at the same time. Have a vision for sub-$1M jets and go try to do it. It takes balls, it takes guts, it takes a spirit that most don't have.
I NEVER EVER fault people for trying to blow past the status quo. And guess what? People/companies that try are usually pretty wierd, unorthodox, even creepy. Look at what Edison and Tesla did/said to one another. Crazy s$@#. Einsten was freak. Von Broun cozied up to the Nazis, but was an aeronautical genius that put the american space program on track. Progress is messy, my friend.
Learn to criticize what is wrong while praising what is right. Even if all that is right is the original idea. Praise that. America and the world need that.
BAron:
"Perhaps the "inteligencia" can tell you that if you are selling a product below cost with declining demand, cutting production reduces the losses. A $ saved is a $ earned."
Of course you are correct. The problem is, either you are going for a low cost jet (high volume) or you are DEAD. Might as well just close.
Under your theory, they should let everyone go.
If they cannot B/E on one a day... how are they losing less money by cutting production?
OK, I know, it's MAGIC. There's some magical new thing that allows you to produce more planes with less workers since Pieper took over? Sorry...
So, the point is, what are they doing?
1- admitting they cannot produce enough planes to BE
2-admitting there's not enough orders even if they could
- they need to cut overhead and GA, and all expenses to make this rationale, and I have not seen this...
Step-1 could have been let half the management & their support staff go - this would have made some sense.
Anyhow, its DOA. Why the shennanigans? There must be a reason...
ATM said: "what about annointing Vern as Co-chair of ETRICK's internationalization?
I personally think the license agreement is bullet proof, and if there's any value to this company, Etrick gains it through the license, not the investment."
I had intended not to get drawn into more conspiracy debate, but apparently I lack self-discipline.
Vern as VP Internationization: window dressing to keep the press onside. This sort of thing's SOP, no? Stops a mouthy, angry Vern sounding off in the press about Eclipse, Roel, etc.
License agreement: no idea what the terms are, whether it's 'bullet proof' or not. Post BK, it might be worthless - I don't know.
But I would question anyone's likelihood of investing in a Russian plant to build an a/c that failed in the market place (as would be seen to be the case if Eclipse shut up shop in the USA); is not yet designed/productionised properly; has demonstrated 'issues' in the field; and which has no proven market demand at a profitable sales price. The US market is a huge slice of the VLJ pie, and moving production to Russia would have a massive negative impact on market share in the US. It would take X years (3? 2?) to get production up and running in Russia, by which time the market will have moved on.
I believe (I have no way of knowing, but it makes sense to me) that the licensing agreement/agreement for the Russian plant was signed in good faith by RP, and in poor faith by Vern as a way of bringing in cash. He knew that the demand on which the Russian plant was predicated was an illusion.
B95,
FWIW, My NEW Baron 58 and NEW Mercedes AMG were some of the most problematic products I have owned. I will never buy another Mercedes (all four have been lemons) and wll have to think hard about buying another Beech product.
My Mooney, OTOH, was a joy.
Go figure!
Baron, I admire you... and..
"Even if all that is right is the original idea" - problem is, it was not HIS original idea, it was the same basic idea thats been around for decades...
www.machdiamonds.com
He had a deal with Williams for an ill-conceived power plant... and a bunch of BS regarding the market potential, technology benefits and implementation.
But, HE WAS A GREAT SALEMAN!!! and he knew not when to stop.
Innovation is the lifeblood of capitalism and this great country... but I would say, there was little in the way to true innovation. Some paper ideas, poor execution, and a lot of BS.
Also, somehow, they forgot there is a vibrant air taxi industry to "reinvent", and many entrenched aerospace companies making all sorts of flying machines to "best"... none of this occured.
Also, Gadfly will remind you, the deliveries are on incomplete planes. ALl of the delivered unfinished, many in service for years... before maybe being finished.
Their motto should be: Eclise: "Danger is our business - Die hards are our customers"
Yes, Vern found backers to the tune of $1.X or dare I say $2.X billions... good job... a real first.
Otherwise, a lot of stuff no one in aerospace would be proud of...
Why waste time fighting here, when you can just leave?
Because starting up a new aircraft manufacturing facility anywhere for this FPJ would be totally insane. There are so many problems with the aircraft, why would anyone want to build it? License to crap is just that. So, even if Roel bought himself a bullet proof license, so what? Do you really think he has some grand plan to start up from scratch a new factory anywhere to build this thing? The man may not be the brightest bulb on the planet, but no one is that foolish.
If, and that is a really big IF, anyone actually believes there is a real business to be had building FPJs, they'd do it in Albuquerque. That's were all of the tooling is, all of the parts are, all of the software engineers are, etc.
CEri,
waht you write makes more sense than what I write... and sorry to drag you in...I do not think its a conspiracy, really... just 2 guys still trying to make a go of it. Like Ed... just trying...
But since what you write makes more sense than what I write... I think I'm correct!
When it comes to EAC, good sense is usually not what they employ to make decisions.
;)
TBMs,
If I had a backer, in a land far, far away willing to produce the product there under license, and huge debts and mounting problems, here... and I was the kind of person who could not face reality when it comes to my failed little jet... sound familiar?
Remember, a BK court would actually agree the license fees are a valid revenue stream for EAC... have at it...
But, yes, its insane...
Guys.. OK...
I'll stop.
ATM - no offence intended or taken, I assure you.
Having an energetic debate is part of what the blog's all about, isn't it?
Baron,
Shane Price said .... How does cutting production, especially when the spotlight is on them, make any sense at all?
Is that a serious question?
My point is timing.
Personally, when delivering 'bad news' I've always found it better to get it all done at once. Why not fire Vern on the Friday before Oshkosh? Announce that the depositors, and the contractors, were shafted at the same time?
This drip, drip, drip of bad news is corrosive to morale, damaging whatever goodwill remains within the Die Hard community and has caused consternation with major suppliers.
Yes, you're right. We were calling for a price increase and a production cut.
But that was MONTHS ago. It's probably too late now, but has no chance whatsoever delivered on drop of acid at a time.
So yes, my question is serious, and remains valid.
Shane
Shane Price said .... How does cutting production, especially when the spotlight is on them, make any sense at all?
Is that a serious question?
My point is timing.
Because they are quickly running out of money.
This image detail comparison should definitively answer the question if the cockpit detail for Controller ad presented for S/N 755 was photoshopped.
The cockpit of N85SM was "photographed". Unless, of course, a space-time singularity bent continuum and destroyed camera parallax, the image of the cockpit was photoshopped to embed the Garmin where the keyboards normally reside. The absolute tell-tale is the aberrant orientations of the knob axis.
I sure the seller was interested in presenting a "concept" of what the future cockpit would look like. It is curious that this effort was so fastidious.
Note also that INOP stickers also disappeared between the panel and the camera lens.
ceri,
none taken...
this is a tough call... concpiracy, what medicine is good/bad, timing...
I love the debate... nothing is personal.
I made my points, yours and Barons are equally valid, that's for sure.
PS. I love the way Baron tries to give EAC some credit... he's probably a lot nicer than I am!!!
"image of the cockpit was photoshopped to embed the Garmin where the keyboards normally reside"
Yes , and Ken(?)/Eclispe(?) couldnt even get this right; the Garmins in the Photoshop version are 430(W)'s, while the EA500 is reported to be using 400W's.
"concpiracy,"
Could be, but IMHO, this theory gives far too much credit to the perps!
First off, "death spiral financing" is a mechanism used to bring down small cap public companies. It can't be used for a private company because there is no market for the company's stock.
If there was no market for the stock, the State of New Mexico, ETIRC, etc wouldn't own the stock. Since those outside of Eclipse own said stock, clearly there's been a market for the stock.
Being in control of the equity does not give one control over BK, that belongs to the debt holders.
Precisely. I speculated that Roel was more than just an equity investor, but a debt investor as well. His debt financing is actually where I think death spiral came in.
Fourth, how can you possibly believe that Roel would be buying bank debt? With what money? For what purpose? Hardly makes sense that a bank is going to sell debt for cents on the dollar. Hardly makes sense that Roel has more cash to throw into this failing mess. If he is putting in more cash, it is in a desperate attempt to salvage the company that he already put too much money into (i.e., throwing good money after bad).
As I said previously I don't think he put in any more money since January. Are you saying that Roel didn't put money in January?
The second piece of cover was what Vern said in his parting remarks, echoed in a press release, that EAC had obtained the first money in a new round of financing, a round sufficient to take the company to cash flow positive. That also was pure meaningless fluff. Makes it look like Vern is not a total and complete failure. Funny that this blog, which has so convincingly proved the case that he is in fact a total and complete failure, would then latch on to this crap as proof of some deep conspiracy.
I don't think anyone has said Vern is a total and complete failure. Actually the financing that you mention goes to my point. Roel took ownership and control even though that financing hasn't actually happened. The most logical explanation to me was that was because of what was agreed to in january where Roel got more ownership based on Eclipse failing to meet performance measures. At the time you'll remember that ETIRC ponied up supposedly the first of multiple rounds. Also, why wouldn't a bank be happy to get pennies on the dollar on Eclipse debt? How do you think those banks will be paid back?
X...
"The absolute tell-tale is the aberrant orientations of the knob axis."
MIT is spending millions on a gravity wave detector and Ken captured one in this unique photograph. This could give Eclipse an idea for yet another 'disruptive technology'. All the knobs on the panel could be pointed at the pilot for ease of use.
"There is no need to make EVERYTHING Eclipse/Vern did as bad. They did some pretty awesome things ... Progress is messy, my friend."
Well, ... yes. I have worked near the leading edge of progress throughout my 40+ year career, both as a product developer/marketer, and as a provider of financing for such ventures. IMHO, the key to success in this kind of endeavor is applying a modicum of judgment at the right time. Eclipse seems to have operated on the notion that the farther out they were, the better - IOW, maximize risk no matter the consequences. That bit of tempering judgment that lets these ventures survive long enough to suceed seems to be entirely absent in the case of Eclipse.
This is tedious, but ok.
There is no market for the stock because it doesn't trade. You or I can't buy it and the holders can't sell it. The fact that the company sold stock to a bunch of investors does not mean that there is a market for the stock. Without a market for the stock, it's value can't be manipulated through trading.
Even if Roel does own some debt, that doesn't put him in control of a BK. If he was really smart, all he owns is senior convertible debt, or it's equivalent. But, the banks aren't stupid, and undoubtedly own the senior-most debt.
Yes, the banks will end up with cents on the dollar in a bankruptcy. If they thought that was upon them now, they'd go there because it would put them in control of the outcome instead of Roel. Until BK, Roel is in control. So I suppose you're right, Roel could be buying bank debt at a discount, but there's absolutely no logical reason why he would. You'd have to believe that being THE ONLY debt holder was his goal, and that he was going to push the company into BK on purpose. Ok, if you want to believe that, go ahead.
There is no market for the stock because it doesn't trade. You or I can't buy it and the holders can't sell it. The fact that the company sold stock to a bunch of investors does not mean that there is a market for the stock. Without a market for the stock, it's value can't be manipulated through trading.
If selling stock to 3rd parties doesn't fit the definition of a market, I don't know what does. Isn't that the same thing the stock exchanges do? Are you saying that NM and ETIRC don't have the right to sell their Eclipse to anyone else?
Until BK, Roel is in control
Roel as CEO is in control during BK unlike the court puts a trustee in charge. Filing for BK isn't simultaneously filing his resignation as CEO of Eclipse.
You'd have to believe that being THE ONLY debt holder was his goal, and that he was going to push the company into BK on purpose. Ok, if you want to believe that, go ahead.
I believe Eclipse is heading into BK no matter what and Roel as CEO of ETIRC is trying to get as much money out of Eclipse as possible for the benefit of ETIRC. I believe Roel's primary job is being CEO of ETIRC and Eclipse is a sub-interest of that rather than the other way around. If the property, plant and equipment have a fixed minimal liquidation value, he's better off owning 51%+ of that rather than 49%, particularly if his increase in ownership didn't mean he had to pay a dime more but instead was a term of the January financing.
Baron95,
What gives you the impression that I want to do such a thing? The fact that I am capable to see both sides of the issue?
I simply asked you if you see a chance to get cash flow in EAC - just NOW. Your position is more of the type "positive neutrality".
So there is just the chance of another point of this matter.
Point 3: According to the pilot's words that was a pilot error.
But did the pilot say everything?
Perhaps AVIO (NG) can help!
EAC and VR must accept that they are responsible for what they did. Naturally EAC is much more then VR. I think you agree with me: at the end the good and the bad points must be weighted.
VR's and EAC's balance is not positive - my point of view.
Currently there is a big crater looming in ABQ which RP wants to fill without losing his money (that's ok - no onspiracy).
If he or his legal successor succeed(s) there will be some good points for EAC.
I dislike to look only at good or at bad points. Most time I will find a good point - but it cannot excuse any major bad point.
julius
Take a walk on over to www.controller.com. Take a look at the "jets for sale" section. Lots of new E500s with very few hours. Tells me that the people that got 'em are afraid to fly 'em. You will see planes with less than 100 hours up for sale on a frequent basis. Damned fools are still trying to get list price for 'em. If you be are one of those with a plane for sale and you are trying to get over $1M for it then you are a damned fool! Better take your licks and get out while the gettin' is good. Else you will be left holdin' a bag that's got nuthin' in it!
It will cost the next guy (sucker) $500K to fix up your frankenjet. Cut your loses now folks!
And, no I'm still not Vern
Dave writes:
Are you saying that NM and ETIRC don't have the right to sell their Eclipse to anyone else?
The stock is Registration D exempt, which means it is restricted, and can only sold to private investors in private transactions, and cannot be "marketed".
I think the two of you (tbms/dave) are talking past each other in this matter. TBMS is absolutely correct that the stock is illiquid. You may be correct that the stock is subject to anti-dilution covenants (as you found reference to) that mean the total shares outstanding will spiral if additional equity is sold for a cheaper price.
Anti-dilution covenants in public equities are equated with "death-spirals" as the expansion of shares is paced to the price in the public market. There is no public market to set a price.
A more apt phrase for the current state of Eclipse is "cram-down". That describes private funding is a tertiary stage which takes control on the cheap of the company when the initial investors are tapped out and have closed their checkbooks.
By the way, Esker Melchior's biggest competitor, Roman Abramovich has named his latest yacht, "Eclipse", due for commissioning later this year. Since the name was announced in Jan 2007, I don't see how there is a connection. Still one wonders, given the Roel's yachting interests, and the mega-yacht milleu that birthed these dreams.
Abramovich once owned Paul Allen's old mega-yacht, and *gave it away* to a subordinate.
Baron, I call shenanigans on your characterization of the Brandywine accident. The pilot has in no way admitted it was pilot error, nor did he say he was 'too' high or 'too' fast.
He said he was a 'little' high and after he corrected that he was a 'little' fast, two totally different statements with two totally different implications.
What of the need to 'pump the brakes'? He said that too?
What of the reported other failures re: the braking on so many other flights?
The failures of the autopilot?
The failures of the trim system?
Issues with the door being closed and annunciated properly?
The fact remains that this appears to be an airplane that even when combined with an ATP rated pilot with experience in other jets that is not even remotely error tolerant.
That is the dangerous element in this calculation, a kludged together preemie jet, not the damn pilot.
If selling stock to 3rd parties doesn't fit the definition of a market, I don't know what does. Isn't that the same thing the stock exchanges do? Are you saying that NM and ETIRC don't have the right to sell their Eclipse to anyone else?
Actually, no, this isn't the definition of a market for stock. Companies issue restricted shares to investors, which subsequently cannot be traded legally until there is an effective registration statement on file with the SEC, and other provisions of the stock purchase agreement have been met. Typically, the stock purchase agreement prohibits sales of the shares before a registration so as to keep the issuing company out of hot water (it being illegal to allow trading in a company's stock absent an effective registration statement).
What does fit the definition of a market for the stock is the listing of the shares on a public stock exchange, pursuant to an effective registration statement.
Most likely, NM and ETIRC do not have the right to sell their shares to anyone else, at least not now.
When companies like EAC issue stock to investors, before they are a publicly traded company, it is almost always preferred stock. The founders usually get common stock, but it can't be traded either before an IPO. The preferred stock is usually issued in "series", as in Series A, Series B, etc. The reason it's called "preferred" stock is that the holders have a liquidation preference. That is, if the company is liquidated the preferred holders will get part of the proceeds before the common shareholders get anything (the founders and insiders), but after debt holders. The preferred stock can later be converted into common stock, after the IPO, and it can be registered (either as part of the IPO or later). Only then, can it be traded.
It is also common for there to be voting agreements as part of the issuance of preferred stock. This is how the (minority) preferred stockholders get board seats. For example, the holders of Series C (or whatever) may also get the right to elect a director, even if the number of shares issued wouldn't otherwise allow those holders to elect a director. All of this is done so that the founders, who hold a huge portion of the stock, don't really control the company. The investors protect themselves through the board, who can hire and fire the CEO (as we've seen).
We may never actually find out what contractual provisions were used in the firing of Vern, if any, although we can be pretty sure that if anyone finds it out, it will be Dave!
-- DayJet: DayJet is poised to set the bar as the first Eclipse 500 operator in Europe. They are in strategic investment and partnering discussions with individuals and companies in the European Union, Middle East, and Africa. In affirming this, Leader pointed to DayJet's strong VLJ order position, first-to-market operational experience, and dynamic ASTRO software that could serve as the backbone of operations far beyond the United States (www.dayjet.com).
from 2007
http://www.aeroweb-fr.net/communiques/06-2007,784.php
Well, the ETIRC Aviation website is back up with the usual BS. Thank God for EASA.
ETRICK:
I never visited their website before.. is this the same site? Just now put up again?
Why does Roel not mention his stint at L+H? Because it is a known scam of eclipse proportions? I was going to say Epic Proportions, but I want to be fair the the guy in Oregon.
Anyone see the resume of the Russian guy? Is the sophmore stuff I find online related to him, or does Nikolay Nikiforov mean Jon Smith in Russian, and there are a lot of "Nikolay Nikiforovs" running around the tech industry???
C'mon guys - this is complete BS.
The guys on this blog dug up stuff like ETRICK's address is at massage parlors/bath houses/mail drops/vacant buildings all over Europe and Russia.
C'mon
Where's the guy who wrote the INC article uncovering Nimbus 5 years ago as a scam???
"ETIRC Aviation S.a r.l. has its principal place of business in
Luxembourg
16 Rue Jean-Pierre Brasseur
L-1258
Tel: 352 26 26 141
ETIRC Aviation is registered under R.C.Luxembourg B 95 627. The company also has offices in Russia, Cyprus and Turkey, and is building training and maintenance facilities across Europe."
someone please tell me what maintenance facilities are they building all over Europe, and for what?
ATM, there were two different websites, one for ETIRC and one for ETIRC Aviation. Both went down for several days and now the ETIRC Aviation website is back up. The ETIRC website is still blank.
was it the same as this BS?
was it the same as this BS?
What amazes me is how so much incomplete much like the FPJ. You'd think this supposedly uber-company would at least have their house in order. This whole ETIRC/Eclipse thing looks like some college project where the students would earn an incomplete.
It was more generalized in nature, with no emphasis on the charter aspect that the present site has.
Internet Archive allows you to read old ETIRC pages:
ETIRC.com
Aviation.Etirc.com
Note between the January and August 2008 versions of the Aviation page, Vladimir Vinogradov has been replaaced by Nikolay Nikiforov in Russia.
The Etirc page archive starts in 2005. At that time the line up on the Management page read:
Prof. Ir. Roel Pieper, Chairman
Daniel Bolotin, Vice President
Drs Edzard Koole, CFO
MOSCOW Office
Daniel Kazdan, Managing Director
Vadim I. Rapoport, General Representative CIS Countries
Michael G. Shulman, Commercial Director
Evgeniya Pavlova, Project Manager
The page stayed this way until Sept 2007 when the management page was replaced with:
* Roel Pieper
* Daniel Bolotin
The CFO and the Russian office evaporate at that revision.
Eclipse Aviation News
Press Contact:
Ben Dover, Eclipse Aviation
BenDover@CashArsonist.com
Eclipse Aviation Announces Training SimulatorNG
ALBUQUERQUE, NM - Eclipse Aviation, manufacturer of the world's first very light jet (VLJ), today announced the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has awarded Eclipse Aviation the first Level F training simulator.
"Eclipse Aviation is proud to reveal yet another disruptive technology to the unwashed masses" said Vern Raburn, former president and CEO of Eclipse Aviation. "Far too many incompetent pilots were failing our revolutionary and disruptive training program. As a result, we present the first Level F Full Motion training simulator."
"The aviation dinosaurs could only simulate full motion. TrainingNG actually provides full motion. They [the dinosaurs] would have been satisfied with simply upgrading from Level D to Level E. We went straight to F because it truly represents our company. I would also like to personally thank Marion Blakey for helping make this disruption happen."
"Did I mention how disruptive this is?" added Mr. Raburn.
Eclipse SimulatorNG (tm)
Disclaimer: Professional NDA handlers were on site to insure that no NDA's were harmed by this lame attempt at satire.
The CFO and the Russian office evaporate at that revision.
Sounds painful.
Anonymous
Come on, man . . . your pullin’ our legs. The most obvious clue: anti-lock brake system on main gear.
gadfly
(Other than that, you had us all fooled!)
My congrats and thanks to TBM for calling down the growing tendency to create conspiracy at every turn. I'm reminded of the GW detractors in the last election: when they weren't busy calling him an evil genius, they were occupied charging him with being a complete dolt.
You don't get to have it both ways, people. This company hasn't been managed into the ground by the Machiavellian Society. Roel didn't arrive on the scene to pillage the burgeoning company coffers.
Then we have Baron's flip side: Eclipse has developed a couple of real nifty products; in fact, had they only considered the incompetent vendors, FAA, NTSB, Owners, Pro-Pilots and Investors, they'd probably be in tall cotton today.
Oy!
This Blog has never before run on "quantity" of responses. It's a bit disheartening to see that change. Just my 2 cents.
Gunner
You don't get to have it both ways, people
You're right. That's why I contend that Vern all along knew he'd never reach 1000 per year and much of the other stuff he was saying. Vern was simply saying everything (regardless of whether he knew it to be true or false) for the purposes of cashing out at an IPO and that would have happened had the Williams issue never come up and then he was stuck with having the tiger by the tail. With Roel I think he's doing what he thinks is best for ETIRC even if it isn't congruent with what is best for Eclipse because he is the CEO of ETIRC. I do second what Shane said that it was extremely strange to fire Vern during the most public aviation event of the year.
yes , i agree with the "lack" of conspiracy ...
i believe that Vern is probably someone who never came down from a "bad acid trip" in the time of the dot.com ...
so for him , probably not in any criminal way, life is easy in the best country of planet ...
you only need to have a "good" idea ,big balls and everything else is smooth ...
(i tend to agree with baron on such : great achievement ! but it is probably more linked with the "illumination" vern is showing than to a real talent and the fact that when too much money is flooding a place : most just go crazy ...)
about Ed , it is already a bit more malignant ...
the Russian-Rocket-scientists are already quite a good indication : i see this often in work = when you need some specific statistics , no need to have bright brain ... only some that obey you and if you do not find any ? make it look very complicated ... no one will have the nerve to go looking is right or wrong ...and , anyway , if someone try = just say "they were not clever enough to understand all aspects of matrix!"
(is there anybody out there to pretend "worker/unemployment" stats or "inflation" have any kind of relation with reality ?? ...)
still basically speaking , it is no conspiracy ... more a silly game where a day is pushing an other day (that explain why the specs are changing so often ...)
i believe as well that the RP part of the story is complete rubbish :
he knows the "Happy " (Ed+Vr) for a long time ...
he has a "firm" in the name of e-trick in Luxembourg , but scratch a little bit = you'll find that etirc was previously named Eclipse ... with Vr +Ed inside (very easy in Luxembourg to Own something and to have it published under the names of X and Y)
so WHO could be mad enough to put more than a cent into such venture ?
so the 100M$ is BS , like so many other things in EAC ...
he (RP) put a little bit of cash in it to keep it going until russian Banks /investors would be stupid and gullible enough to buy in ...
but it didn't happen ! so now they are in deep shit ...
they have to cut the workforce , which could have been a good thing , but 1 year ago ...
and basically have to make public the fact that E400 will never exist , that retrofit are postponed till messiah arrives and customers are asked to shut-up or loose all hopes ...
no ! not a conspiracy ... ! just an accumulation of small details , like the small streams always make the biggest rivers ...
as for the 1800 "workers" who have to be in Russia (was TBM to say ?) :
Well , Etrick-russia is , in my knowledge , no more than 2 persons (maximum) funny enough = each time i tried to call the number , i got an answering machine ...a bit the same than the spanish air-taxi had an answering thing to put you thru with a public-relation office ...(that is probably what they meant by "virtual network" ! ;-))) )
all of this did happen for two main reasons :
1° when money seems too easy to make , most have "burning fingers" with it ...
2° too many around to be too "cheap" to afford a real jet , but dreaming enough (or vain enough) to believe or have others to believe they could afford so ...
(i am NOT talking about the ones who love flying ... it is like chain-smokers , a pack at 1$ or 10$ won't make them quit !)
Ps: for baron
(what did you expect from me ? ;-)) )
no need to call Mercedes HQ to know who has done your engine ...
if it is an AMG , the engine block HAS to be signed and numerated by the one who made it ... !
i forgot :
do not expect any US products to be in fashion in the next future in Russia ...
they seems to be really pissed-off with what is going-on in south-ossetia ...
they start to ask "nasty questions":
how a country which has a total output of GNP at 3.8B$ (Georgia) can buy for 1.2B$ of the most modern military gears and weapons from a country which has not enough money to pay its own oil and gaz bills(ukraine) ...???
to fight with an other Army which had a U.N. mandate for the last 10 years to keep the peace ...
they start to ask "who is REALLY paying for such venture ??"
Gunner,
This Blog has never before run on "quantity" of responses. It's a bit disheartening to see that change. Just my 2 cents.
In part, that's your fault!
The defense your organized for the blog increased the profile to the point where there are at least three times the number of bloggers, and five times as many email correspondents.
Another area, which is my fault, is the focus on the business aspects at EAC. However, the next few headlines will be more 'pointed' towards the aircraft itself.
Shane
Conspiring: "to join in a secret agreement to do an unlawful or wrongful act or an act which becomes unlawful as a result of the secret agreement."
I guess its not a conspiracy if it is as plain as day. The new plan - since Eclipse/Dayjet imploded - is to take the show on the road and do ETIRC Aviation/EuroDayJet. The ultimate plan is to do an IPO so the investors can get their money back. The fact that there is no ETIRC, no ETIRC Aviation, or no EuroDayJet does add a slight aroma of dead fish to the enterprise.
asm :
then we agree ...
but the story about IPO would just show how much they take others for stupid ...
who would be mad enough to buy share of a firm specialized in writing in red ?
who ?
(ok , i could add they got already a few to believe them (depositors) but that wouldn't be charitable ... ;-)) )
Another Brandywine article:
http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2008/08/11/310563/ntsb-no-obvious-malfunctions-in-eclipse-500-crash.html
Shane-
Apologies to you, if my comments were taken in any way as a critique of the gathering place you've created and worked so hard to nurture.
This remains the go-to site for news on the Eclipse implosion. I simply think that reading Boardroom Cloak and Dagger into every tidbit of info detracts from that mission and venue. Again, that's just my opinion. Back to your regularly scheduled Critics Commentary with my sincere apology for the sidetrack.
Gunner
Gunner,
Apologies to you, if my comments were taken in any way as a critique of the gathering place you've created and worked so hard to nurture.
Hang on, how can the man who 'saved' our asses apologize to the proximate cause of the trouble?
You are of course correct on the 'business' focus for the past few weeks. In my 'defense' I can only point to the very strange events that have taken place within EAC over this period.
Stan told me once not to worry about where the next headline post would come from, I could always rely on EAC to do something stupid.
It's just that they've done so many stupid things, in such a short period of time, that I was having trouble keeping up.
At present, I waiting until tomorrow for the last comments on the 'Top Ten', then we will have our next headline post on Wednesday/Thursday. This depends largely on which time zone you read this from, of course.
You have my promise that it will be 'aviation', rather than 'business'. But then, I thought the 'Top Ten' was all about the FPJ...
Shane
"The problem seems to be that there is no way to get weight on the main tires quickly during a normal landing or on a rejected take-off. The designers left out thrust reversers, ground spoilers, and ground flaps. You might not need them all but you need whatever gets the weight on the tires quickly. After the weight is on the tires you need anti-skid working through a healthy set of brakes to get the airplane stopped. They left out good brakes and anti-skid also. These incidents are happening on mostly dry runways. There is no way to stop the airplane on an icy runway. No way at all."
Come on now, if they did that they would miss their $750,000 price target.
Book Title:
WCSYC (We Couldn’t, So You Can’t)
A tale of hubris, dishonesty, and a failed plan to get rich quick in an industry known for getting people poor quick.
Shane Wrote:
"ColdWet,
My sources only mention one of the lines. There are, I understand, two.
Sources in the supplier community indicate that EAC will try and cut cost in this area as well.
Imagine the conversation:-
'Hi, John here with Eclipse, I need you to cut 25% off the cost of everything you sell us'
Jack responds 'So let me get this right, you want me to cut the price I get, on a volume that's less that a quarter of what you promised?'
'That's about it, in a nutshell, but there is one other small thing' John responds.
'What?' says Jack
'We would prefer to pay you with completed aircraft, delivered in a few years time'
Click, bzzzz.
'Jack, are you still there? Jack, I need an answer...'
Shane"
Just so you know, no supplier that I know actually believed Eclipse's numbers. The pricing strategy was like this:
750-1500 -- tell Eclipse whatever they want to hear because it will never happen anyway.
500-750 -- see above
250-500 -- price it like it could happen.
<250 -- price it at very good OEM margins because this is what will happen and the guys at Eclipse are so stupid that they're not even looking at this number.
<250 -- price it at very good OEM margins because this is what will happen and the guys at Eclipse are so stupid that they're not even looking at this number.
One of the reasons why the FPJ probably costs more to build than the Mustang even though the Mustang is a step up. Also not helping matters is how Eclipse has publicly thrown so many suppliers under the bus. Eclipse has thrown its bargaining power under the bus.
Baron,
You mentioned Epic's absence from Oshkosh. The word on the street is that Epic pulled out of Oshkosh in protest of the new requirements to meet the 51% rule. I have no idea if this is true.
The FAA was on-site at EAA having meetings/seminars regarding the revised requirements. Everyone I talk to seems to think the FAA's goal is to basically shutdown the "quick build" shops. Have no idea if this is true either.
It is unfortunate Epic pulled out. I was hoping to see them at Oshkosh. Sport-Jet was displayed and the Co. will sell experimentals and has procedures in place to meet all new requirements. I really wanted to compare the two planes.
Sincere apologies for off-topic reply.
Can someone point me to what Eclipse said about brakes and tires in their customer communication? I'm not taking about what was said in the press, but rather the official communications.
Search Results from Eclipse Aviation web site for Job Openings
Your search found 107 matching jobs.
What?! Show 190 people the door and then hire 107. Hmmm. I cant even begin to list ALL of the reasons that is just stupid.
Like Shane said, he never has to worry about what to post...EAC will always give him material.
Here's some Russian news in russian:
http://www.rbcdaily.ru/2008/06/09/industry/350926
And here's the free translation (you get what you pay for):
http://babelfish.yahoo.com/translate_url?doit=done&tt=url&intl=1&fr=bf-home&trurl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.rbcdaily.ru%2F2008%2F06%2F09%2Findustry%2F350926&lp=ru_en&btnTrUrl=Translate
What it appears to be saying is that 75% of what is made in the Russian factory will be exported to europe and asia and that in Russia there's actually only 50 orders. The translation was unintentionally funny with it saying ETIRC would be the most arrogant aircraft manufacturer in Russia.
Here's another article where it sounds like it is saying Eclipse received 8 Russian orders from politicians:
http://babelfish.yahoo.com/translate_url?doit=done&tt=url&intl=1&fr=bf-home&trurl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.rosbalt.ru%2F2008%2F8%2F11%2F494981.html&lp=ru_en
The original Russian:
http://www.rosbalt.ru/2008/8/11/494981.html
Dave,
Can someone point me to what Eclipse said about brakes and tires in their customer communication? I'm not taking about what was said in the press, but rather the official communications.
Contact me via email and I'll see what I can do...
Shane
Inbox busy, as usual...
1. EAC are slowing production radically as we chatter away. Sources speculate that deliveries will slow to 2 a week, rapidly. Still pretty good for a new company, but counter intuitive based on a '2,700' order book.
2. Depositors are marching, in their thousands, to the Federal Courthouse in ABQ. The National Guard have been put on standby to help control the crowd. (OK, that's laying it on pretty thick, but you get the idea.)
3. Journalists are forming up to publish stories which, to put it mildly, will not make EAC inclined to spend advertising dollars with a wide range of industry leading chronicles. Not that they have many dollars left to spend...
4. Many 'new voices' including pilots, mechanics and owners have contacted the blog email, eclipsecriticng@gmail.com. Thanks for all the input, which will form a fascinating headline post, once the Top Ten list has had it's five days.
Unless, that is, something else turns up!
Shane
PS Any chance Captain Zoom will cover any of this?
PPS Don't bother with a reply, we all know the answer...
The Daniel Asher subpoena is for the case of Daniel Asher v Kenneth Ross (07-CH-461) in the Circuit Court of Lake County Illinois. I've confirmed this by calling the NM Court, so it would appear to involve North American.
Here's a fun job at Eclipse. It's to be a Delivery Coordinator:
https://tbe.taleo.net/NA11/ats/careers/requisition.jsp?org=ECLIPSEAVIATION&cws=1&rid=206
How would you like to be in that position when Eclipse calls in the 6 month deposit when in reality you know the delivery will happen much later than that.
Given what is going on now, being the Airworthiness Designee sounds like loads of fun:
https://tbe.taleo.net/NA11/ats/careers/requisition.jsp?org=ECLIPSEAVIATION&cws=1&rid=254
Also there's the Aircraft Modification Program Manager, which right now seems like the Maytag Repairman as Eclipse froze retrofits:
https://tbe.taleo.net/NA11/ats/careers/requisition.jsp?org=ECLIPSEAVIATION&cws=1&rid=198
Then again if it wasn't frozen, you get to deal with all the people have their million dollar aircraft tied up for weeks longer in the shop than Eclipse said they would.
On the accounting side there's the Accounts Payable Manager:
https://tbe.taleo.net/NA11/ats/careers/requisition.jsp?org=ECLIPSEAVIATION&cws=1&rid=190
No headaches there as vendors just love Eclipse.
It’s very difficult to comment on something that doesn’t exist. So, many have turned to the financial part . . . and all the conspiracy theories. For others of us, we look at the violations of good manufacturing and design practices . . . knowing that what we observe will lead to extremely bad consequences.
Some years back, a little jet was promised, and it created much excitement. It promised great things in aviation . . . and had the added benefit of creating jobs in New Mexico . . . etc., etc.
Gullible politicians, with virtually no knowledge of manufacturing, business ethics, let alone, aircraft and all that that entails, fell for the bait . . . offering taxpayers’ money to bring this thing to New Mexico . . . the deals “sweetened” by donations to election coffers . . . and so history repeats itself.
To some of us, we watch on the sidelines to a re-run of events going back in history . . . but with some knowledge of aerodynamics, and manufacturing . . . and see from the start that many people are going to be hurt (financially, and emotionally) when this house of cards comes tumbling down.
To those who lose some money . . . sorry, but you do not have my sympathy . . . you should know better. But others who know nothing of these things . . . too young, lacking experience, still on the “honeymoon” of building a family, and seeking to go on to greater things . . . there is no excuse for the manner in which the upper echelons have treated this great labor base. And there is no excuse for the upper politicians, who have used rather innocent and naive young families to achieve their selfish ends.
It is difficult at times to stand on the sidelines, with only the offer of advice on how a good company should behave . . . and not fully understanding why some will mistreat others to achieve their own goals.
We have been threatened through legal channels for even commenting on the obvious problems, and at least one . . . two have stood up, with their own resources, to do the right thing . . . that is good! ‘Very good, indeed!
At the beginning, I made mention of something that doesn’t exist . . . and as you well know, the original six place very light jet, with the original price, and all of the many features has never, not even in experimental form, ever, once, existed. And I predict that it never will exist. Can it exist? . . . Sure it can, but not in the hands of “this” group . . . they don’t know what they are doing, and it requires an honest business base.
It’s a broken record, so to speak, but that day when the little bird fluttered around ABQ with a couple overheated underpowered engines, and the management declared “success”, to take (Steal) money from escrow . . . the jig was up . . . and people should have been rounded up and taken into custody.
But the very people who had put that money into escrow refused to take action. And so, I have little sympathy for these early depositors . . . right at that moment, they should have taken action, . . . yet chose to remain silent. I cannot begin to understand their lack of action . . . it is beyond me!
For the rest, we hope to point out the dangers of even being a passenger in this thing . . . and warn any who would think otherwise, that helping to promote this flying thing is to contribute to something not good . . . the extreme hurt of some . . . maybe many.
gadfly
(A man once jumped from the Empire State Building and lived to tell about it . . . all the way down.)
gadfly,
Vern did have a skill set: It was creating an appearance that would seem to fulfill a fantasy that a significant number of people held in common. That is a skill set he probably partly learned at Microsoft and partly just came by naturally. For it to work it just has to look like you have the dream solution. There is no integrity involved, just made up stuff.
He was able to present his appearance of dream fulfillment to that group of fantasizers and thus the deposits and the subsequent denial came about. The denial was about the fantasy not being true after all. Sort of childish, but there you have it.
thanks to TBM for calling down the growing tendency to create conspiracy at every turn.
Hear, hear!
The only thing that's appeared at every turn has been "strategic ( and tactical, for that matter ) blunder".
Vern's supposed plan was to be gone by the time metal was being pushed out the door. Problem is, the only way he could cash out in a big way was a successful IPO, so he had to get one done before he would leave. And that didn't happen because of the non-stop string of bad decisions VR & friends made every step of the way.
Vern was perfectly happy to doom the company by sticking around too long.
That's the conspiracy...
-----------------------------------
I'm reminded of the GW detractors in the last election: when they weren't busy calling him an evil genius, they were occupied charging him with being a complete dolt.
I don't believe I've ever referred to him as any kind of genius...
:-)
-----------------------------------
Just so you know, no supplier that I know actually believed Eclipse's numbers. The pricing strategy was like this:
750-1500 -- tell Eclipse whatever they want to hear because it will never happen anyway.
500-750 -- see above
250-500 -- price it like it could happen.
<250 -- price it at very good OEM margins because this is what will happen and the guys at Eclipse are so stupid that they're not even looking at this number.
Emperor Vernicus spent a lot of time on the "evils of cost-plus" pricing. Thing is, the economies of scale that enable drastically lower pricing on 1000+ units ( versus 100 - 200 ) are capital & overhead costs that are 80 - 90% lower per unit - and in the aviation world, capital / overhead costs are exceedingly high. So what Vern was getting was "cost-plus" on high volume. Is anybody surprised that costs have skyrocketed in light of the ( relative to promised ) low volume?
Didn't think so...
-----------------------------------
the FPJ probably costs more to build than the Mustang
Stir-fry welding is why the FPJ costs more to build than a Mustang. Additional capital requirements, additional maintenance costs, an additional step in the manufacturing process, and an additional discipline to be efficient ( or inefficient ) at.
Cessna, with their Independence plant, was able to optimize work flow for riveted construction - as witnessed by the drastically reduced build times for their SE piston models relative to the same models when they were built in Wichita. It was true the day Independence opened, and I understand the build times just keep dropping ( on a 50 year old model, no less ).
Eclipse's strategy of being more efficient by ADDING A STEP misses something fundamental.
-----------------------------------
A man once jumped from the Empire State Building and lived to tell about it . . . all the way down.
The fall is harmless - the landing, not so much...
Changed my mind,
IANAL
In the update, Shane wrote:
I dropped the 'door issue' and promoted the pitot mess as more than one pilot has raised that specifically with me in the past.
Shane,
Because of the frequency of pitot - static issues ( and the potential for grave consequences because they tend to occur in the presence of visible moisture ), I propose moving it from #8 to #3, and moving 3 through 7 down a peg.
IANAAE
Because of the frequency of pitot - static issues ( and the potential for grave consequences because they tend to occur in the presence of visible moisture ), I propose moving it from #8 to #3, and moving 3 through 7 down a peg.
Related to reported problems, does anyone know the expected date that FAA SDR database will be back online?
gad
i kinda disagree with your statement about politicians ...
they are not gullible (politicians) ...
they only spread the lies voters are ready or/and willing to hear !
this is one of the 2 biggest problem with democracy , the second one being the fact that its worst enemy is itself ...!
(read what Churchill was saying about it !)
but i share your lack of sympathy for depositors , only tempered for the ones who made this mistake due to their lack of experience ...!
as for the others : they have lost money (i use past because no , no way you can believe to have/had a bargain) :
fine ! apparently they didn't loose enough to enable EAC to master the world ...
they were too busy rushing to see houses prices rocketing ? too busy watching Wall-Street turning "wind of nothing" into "items of value" ? too busy auto-glorifying themselves for being so clever ?
fine !
but they forgot : any dream has to end with the end of night ...!
dave :
your link about RosbaltVolga is excellent ...
but there is a "few" poops ...
contacted directly , one of the managing position in VTB ( which happen to be my main bank in Russia ...)
stated (off course , it is a rough translation , the guy was much more "expressive" ...! ;-)) ) :
"are they really nuts ? why should we need toys ?"
VTB is a bank which is own at 100% by the State , if it is what you meant by "politicals" ...
Gazprom : same kind of answer , they just added "do they know we OWN already our very own airline ? "
as for the 8 "orders" it is spread onto 3/4 countries ...
wow !!! what an exploit ...!! ;-))
the "plant" : are they going to do the same than in ABQ , build the "mega-orders" and after sit-down , watch the comics-show ? (but don't forget to turn the lights off when leaving !)
because if you add 1 + 1 =
this is what Eac want us to believe :
they have/had 2000+ workers ? to make +/- 200 unfinished units ?
to me it sounds that they gathered all staff on the parkway , grouped them by bunches of 10 , and gave to each bunch the task to make 1 (ONE) unfinished aircraft in the last 2 years ...
wow ! what an accomplishment !
Monsieur Gunner , i agree with you !
we should not digress too much from core subject of blog ...
but at same time : no business = no FPJ = no blog ...
things are a little too intricate to be treated really separately ... !
S/N 144 flies to Europe today.
144 passed through Trenton before its escape flight, like a number of other Europe bound FPJ. Is Trenton for a AvioNG tune-up?
This is the 18th FPJ I place in Europe.
To get our thinking back to the airframe and various systems:
Well over fifty years ago, we were testing various control components in altitude chambers, and large vibration transducers . . . running through every frequency of vibration, from the “sub harmonics” that are felt rather than heard, up into the upper limits of human hearing . . . cycling between the sub zero temperatures found at altitude, to high heat, and various pressures . . . with and without lubrication . . . far beyond the life time of any aircraft . . . and whenever possible, taking the test up past failure of the components. That’s a major reason the aircraft industry is generally safe.
But since I first tuned into all this discussion, I have heard almost nothing of testing being conducted on the little jet. An entire building should have been put in place, with everything necessary to carry on every conceivable test, and continued day and night. But I hear . . . a deafening silence!
Such activities should be exploited and advertised on the Eclipse website. These are not the sort of thing one keeps secret.
‘Looking through old books on the history of aviation, various companies would get their entire staff to stand on the wings of a new aircraft to demonstrate the strength . . . sometimes piling up a stack of 55 gallon drums, or sand bags . . . it was a crude method, but showed a certain level of confidence by the manufacturer, and the employees in their product.
But today? . . . silence!
Stir fried welds should be put through stress tests, at various temperatures, in saturated atmospheres of “salts”, etc. Trim actuators should be cycled until they overheat to destruction . . . Landing gear should go through the same testing, under double loads, repeatedly . . . over and over and over.
Silence!
gadfly
(Put the throttle quadrants on a kids’ ride in front of a Walmart . . . that should do it!)
This really doesn't meet your shortcomings list, people need to know this so here it goes. Yesterday several guys started a new job at Eclipse in ABQ. They spent their whole day completing paperwork and going through orientation. 30 minutes before the day was over, HR came in and said, "Thanks, but we don't need you anymore." What's really screwed up is some of these guys quit looking for work a month ago thinking they had a job, some left good jobs, and some actually moved their families to ABQ and bought a new house to start this job. Sounds to me like Eclipse isn't the place to work anyway, but this was so wrong. They should've informed these guys of this before they went through all these changes. It is not only flat out wrong, but unethical if you ask me.
gladfly,
you remind me of the software test Boeing is conducting on a dreamliner: They use the "spare time" to even test the next version. And they used it for PR.
EAC also having time problems hasn't learnt from that example.
Perhaps there is no iron bird/sim
for this type of time consuming tests. The software cannot only be tested on an E500.
I cannot remember that VR/RP said "we have 'flown' AVIO NG x1000hours in sim and simulated y situations - sensor, power faults included - witout any problems and 'black screens'....".
Ok that's peanuts but better than postponing everything without a hint.
julius
julius
Somewhere back in time, I think you said you are German. And having spent much of my time as a machinist and designer, I have much experience working with Germans. And regardless of the many . . . hundreds of discussions with Germans, this much I can say in defense of "the" German mind is that nothing is manufactured and put into the hands of the unskilled without thorough testing and absolute solid design.
The great German and Dutch ("Antony Fokker") minds of the past would be appalled at the methods and design of the “little jet”. You use the word “iron” . . . and that expresses both the German and American attitude of producing a solid aircraft.
There is so much that the two of us would find in common . . . in thought and attitude toward a reliable “bird” . . . but that will need to wait for another day.
In the mean time, you speak of “peanuts” . . . and did you know that New Mexico is a major grower of peanuts? . . . Check it out! . . . you will be most surprised.
But in the case of the little jet, let’s just say, as a famous American commander once said to a German commander, in late 1944, “Nuts!”.
gadfly
(And to the little jet that wants to be a real airplane, “Nuts!)
LG
“Once upon a time in Albuquerque” . . . the time was the early Fall of 1973, I determined that the time had come for me to leave a company, of which I was the “General Manager” . . . also the plant engineer, and chief designer, etc., etc.. I gave three weeks notice . . . “You can’t quit, you’re fired” was the response, and before my entire crew, a secretary was sent to watch me clean out my desk, and remove myself from the premises.
An employee came up to me, to confess that he had me “all wrong”, having been blaming me for certain things over the previous two years . . . it partially answered the question I had had, as to why he seemed to always have a chip on his shoulder.
The next year was not an easy year . . . traveling every couple of weeks (by plane) to my new responsibilities in Waukesha, Wisconsin . . . visiting my family every other weekend back near Albuquerque, in an “unfinished house”. After a cold winter, I was able to return to being a machinist, and a string of other things, leading to establishing my own business . . . 1 January 1976, an almost carbon copy of something begun by my own grandfather in Lincoln, Nebraska, in the late 1800's and incorporated in 1901.
A year after my resignation, I watched on the TV news my former boss being led in handcuffs to the federal building in Albuquerque . . . he eventually served a few years for his “miss-deeds”. A few years later, I was able to give him some help in a new enterprise . . . but he hadn’t changed, and the thing came to nothing.
Far more time has passed . . . most of the characters in this earlier scenario are long past . . . dead and buried. For the living, it was not an easy time, to be sure, but the “winners” were those that learned valuable lessons in human behavior. (I could say more but preaching is not part of the acceptable discussion.)
LG . . . this much I can say, what you see happening in Albuquerque is not the first time . . . I’ve seen it before (as I have shared), and a few other times. ABQ seems to be a magnet for this sort of thing . . . we can discuss that issue in another place and time.
In the mean time, “This, too, will pass!”
gadfly
(Living is a dangerous enterprise!)
fred
Earlier on, I made some comments about politicians being “gullible” . . . and if you will notice, I said that about various “technical” subjects, and not from the level of human behavior, on the lowest most basic plain.
About human behavior, politicians in general are what we call in the US of A, “Street Smart” . . . and are not gullible in that sense. They know exactly which button to push to get the response they wish . . . and we have a governor that could be called a “maestro” in the art of pushing the “right buttons”. He’ll have his day in court! . . . and not the court of his choosing.
But I have yet to meet a politician, even a good one of high morals, who could not be “played” as a gullible victim by someone technically smart, yet wanting to put one over on the victim.
This is possibly being lost in translation . . . no offense to the “French” . . . ‘just recognizing that we’re not always ordering from the same menu.
gadfly
(Am I caught up? . . . did I miss someone? The "gadfly" watches at various times of day and night, but tries to hold back until the flavor of the meal is apparent . . . and just now attempting to shift the direction of discussion back to the physical contraption, commonly called the "E500".)
Gladfly,
the valencias from NM - I think
they are real nuts and don't want to fly like other "Nuts"! They know why they are also called earth nuts (just the german translation)!
Designing half-finished,
developing half-finished,
producing half-finished,
calculating half-finished,
oooh,
increasing price,
"Nuts"!
julius
julius
Let’s make a deal! You leave out that “L” in the first part of my handle, and I’ll be forever grateful. In some languages, such as “Swedish”, the implication of the “glad one” is not exactly a good thing. But “gadfly” is entirely proper.
But back to the “peanuts” . . . constantly stomping on them makes pure “peanut butter”, an excellent good thing . . . great on toasted bread, and meeting the needs of hungry kids, or old adults . . . my lunch earlier today.
We also in New Mexico have a natural “flying nut” (not to be confused with the term, “governor”), called the piñon pine. In fact, most of the trees, here, are “Piñon” and Juniper ( . . . erroneously called “Cedar” by some). The piñon nuts have a single tiny wing, and when released from the pine cone, are carried by the wind like a small helicopter.
Unlike the pilots of the E500, the “flying nut” from a “piñon pine” tree is of no danger to anyone, and welcome in the diet of most any New Mexican. Of late, they are sold at Costco, shelled . . . and guess what’s on the label? . . . “A product of China”.
gadfly
(Is nothing sacred?)
Charity wrote earlier that Eclipse says its staffing level is at about 1800 employees, after laying off the contract workers.
Currently, 130 to 140 incomplete aircraft have been delivered so far this year. Extrapolate out, and assuming production rate isn't changed ( NOT a safe assumption ), there'll be about 240 proto-FPJs built.
( Time for a flashback to Stan's first post: )
"At every opportunity, Vern Raburn likes to highlight his use of Friction Stir Welding to speed assembly and cut costs. In an article in Business & Commercial Aviation, Dr. Oliver Masefield, a Senior Fellow at Eclipse, stated FSW eliminated 7,400 rivets and 1,000 hours of assembly time and that an Eclipse airframe could be built in 600 hours."
600 HOURS - talk about disruptive!
( Back to the original premise of my post: )
1800 employees times 2000 hours/year is 3.6 million hours. Divided by 240 incomplete aircraft, that's a mere 15,000 hours per incomplete aircraft ( slightly higher than Dr. Masefield's numbers ).
Truly Disruptive.
So, Roel, how're ya likin' that investment you made in Eclipse?
600 HOURS - talk about disruptive!
( Back to the original premise of my post: )
1800 employees times 2000 hours/year is 3.6 million hours. Divided by 240 incomplete aircraft, that's a mere 15,000 hours per incomplete aircraft ( slightly higher than Dr. Masefield's numbers ).
Truly Disruptive.
First off let's be generous and assume there's only 1000 employees who actually put it together between there being vacancies and there being positions in the office staff and whatnot, so plugging that in we arrive at 8500 hours per aircraft. Even being more generous and cutting it to 6000 hours doesn't look good as that is 10 times the amount.
Now also looking at this further in regards to cost to build where you include in everyone's loaded labor costs that comes to $500K per plane if the loaded labor per person is $67K (which Eclipse brags about the high salaries there).
We also know by Eclipse's own admission that retrofits are very time consuming, so the final cost to complete the existing aircraft is still unknown.
It seems like Eclipse is guilty of what it accused the aircraft industry of being guilty of...being in the stone age of manufacturing with inefficient manufacturing processes having to hand build each aircraft. Aside from Eclipse the aircraft industry seems to know how to manufacture aircraft efficiently but Eclipse is in the stone age.
Thank you, Dave Ivedorne, for the “flashback” to Stan’s first post . . . 28 months ago. I printed it out on seven pages using WordPerfect, to use as a reference.
Stan’s accurate assessment and predictions sound more like a sales brochure, compared to the real turn of events . . . his analysis is dead on in all areas.
It should be read by every person who contributes to this blogsite.
gadfly
gadfly :
don't worry i don't take offense that easily , and anyway , in case of , i am half german when it suits me ...
i understand very well your conception , and YES there is NO politician that cannot be fooled in techno-bla-bla ...
we had some years ago a french president who has spent a fortune into oil-detection-planes ... the whole thing revealed itself as a plain scam ...
or a german chancellor who have been tricked into believing the real state of industry in a reunified part ...
where the process nearly ruined the country and didn't really address the biggest problem : difficult to erase 40 years of brain-washing overnight (on both sides )...
take what i said as : the road to hell is very often portrayed as the one for paradise and opposite ...
but something that should NEVER be forgotten is : who put the ones who are making mistakes in office in the first place ?
(remember history : Hitler was elected by german populace before starting his madness ...exactly for what he did :greatness of Germany , he just didn't specify until where he was ready to go [too openly] ...)
the best system of governance remain to be invented , i believe it will never ... too much interferences with human nature !
(may be i'm a little bit too french , already ?)
why do i say this about Fpj ?
because i see the russian part of the story , not as an escape or a way to build more for less money but more as a scapegoat ...
something like "if you do not support us ,we will go abroad ..."
(which is , i believe a big part of the whole thing ...if there is any malignant intention )
what is the fun part of it : it is suggested (off-course , in my opinion !) without taking care of the reality of where it is supposed to go ...
European Union : no future for Fpj , actually i am quite sure that Vlj may have some kind of success , but more for passionate (very few) than for any corporate or taxi-service ...
to me , it is exactly why , not long ago , you could find a kind of advert showing the benefits of Flying the Fpj on a kind of trip most europeans know already that planes are a pain compared to other means ...
or you could find the same about a spanish "virtual" airline , showing the Fpj taking in a costs comparison that was absolutely ridiculous ...
where europeans would know that the economic situation of spain is actually a nightmare ...
or a mega-potential in Russia , where the Fpj is not cert. , too short in range , too small in passengers + luggage , too late in time (private air-taxi already do exists , flying PC12 soon to switch to mustang ...)
if you add the posts where "some" are talking about the "horribilis" of the russian putting their hands on small jet-engine ...
where for them the simple way would be to buy a few vlj and do reverse-engineering(or plainly copy as the Chinese do) or just buy the plant producing the engine ...
and the "Fpj will operate under Faa cert. in Euroland..."
where it will very probably NEVER happen , first because standards are different and because the FAA cert. is not even sure to be really valid ...
the whole thing start to smell really like what it is :
a joke ... a joke costing a lot both to private and public money , but remaining a joke !
the link provided by dave is quite revealing on such :
Gazprom would buy a Fpj ? what for ?
they are the most capitalized firm in the today world (they can afford anything) they have a bank which belong to them ( no problem with money ) and they even possess their own airline because to go from capital-city to exploitation sites is sometimes twice longer than the longest trip you can make in USA ...
i tell you : Fpj = a joke !
as no one is the best ... at the most we all are only different in different circumstances ...but remaining the same humanity!
gadfly,
sorry for misspelling your name!
There was no intention!
Yes I learnt a little about "Nuts", nuts and peanuts! Being in U. S. I once had the chance to eat some "peanut butter". I think I got the wrong brand... like glue.
Reading Stan statements I am feeling VR just wanted to prove Stan's experience...
julius
From this morning's avweb biz: "AVweb doesn't normally deal in rumors but given the magnitude of this story and the plugged-in source who tipped us, we'll loosen the reigns a little. Word is that there will be a monumental shakeup at Eclipse Aviation (yes, even bigger than Vern Raburn's unceremonious departure) and that it began Tuesday. Since nothing has been confirmed, we won't go into any of the details but we do invite those of you who might know a little more (ideally with a way to confirm it) to drop us a line at newstips@avweb.com."
More on Brandywine:
http://www.redorbit.com/news/business/1519821/investigators_pilot_error_caused_eclipse_crash/
Here's some more info on Eclipse's suppliers:
http://www.manufacturingtalk.com/news/pri/pri152.html
Generation Metals has a contract with Eclipse and they subcontracted out aluminum parts to Whitwam.
From this morning's avweb biz: "AVweb doesn't normally deal in rumors but given the magnitude of this story and the plugged-in source who tipped us, we'll loosen the reigns a little. Word is that there will be a monumental shakeup at Eclipse Aviation (yes, even bigger than Vern Raburn's unceremonious departure) and that it began Tuesday.
Perhaps the reports of the departure of some of the top brass (Rulo, Billson, Fierro I believe was reported) was correct just it hadn't happened until now. It should be interesting. I gather by "shake-up" that it is a staffing thing rather than a product thing...like Eclipse isn't going to announce the Eclipse 600.
Eclipse news:
1- 100% SANITY- complete shut down - product is DOA
2- 80% SANITY- scale down to skeletal staff and overhead, produce a dozen planes a month to meet the real demand
3- 60% SANITY- scale back but continue to try to produce a lot of planes
4- 35% SANITY - BK to reog, and maintain the illusion that the plane has a large market, just need to reorg the company
5- 10% SANITY - A few top people are dismissed
6- INSANITY - moving to Russia
We'll see....
2- 80% SANITY- scale down to skeletal staff and overhead, produce a dozen planes a month to meet the real demand
If they had a skeletal staff, could they produce 12 per month? If going forward they can produce one in 6000 hours, they'd need a factory staff of just over 400, which I believe that would be in line with the Mustangs total factory staff across both shifts (250+150 I believe was said). However, that still leaves the huge issue of the price, which I guess is why you only gave it 80% sanity.
You are going the wrong direction in your number...wouldnt a new plane be the 300 now?
A 300 would be for something smaller than the 400 as I understand it. The 600 would be slightly larger than the 500...so that way they'd have the FPJ two models that are either slightly larger or slightly smaller. I'm not in any way advocating this, just explaining how I understanding Eclipse's model numbering.
dave:
precisely
no matter what they do, this product is DOA.
Cannot make money with it... low rate
Cannot find a market for it... high rate
:(
DayJet adds another DayPort:
http://www.athensworld.com/2008/08/dayjet-service-at-ath.html
New post up.
Lets try and keep focused on the aircraft, for a while.
Shane
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