Wednesday, August 13, 2008

As promised, reports from the Front Line

Too often on the blog we spend time discussing issues of high finance, low dealings and dodgy sales promises. But we must always keep in mind the people who actually work on the aircraft. I speak of course of the EAC line workers, as well as the pilots/owners and their mechanics.

First, from the factory. This snippet might help explain why the aircraft have so many issues in the field.

"The first thing that I noticed at Eclipse Aviation is the almost total lack of training in the tasks that are needed to manufacture an aircraft. Eclipse has a program with the state of New Mexico in which the state pays 44% of a workers wages for 6 months if the person is qualified. Eclipse gets the money and I assume that Eclipse is responsible to train the worker since there are training forms that as supposed to be signed off and turned in. The problem is that the training never gets done and everyone that I have spoken to about the forms say, "What training?". They say, "I am not going to lie to the state of New Mexico and say that I am getting training when I am not getting that training. What should one do? One could lie about the training and risk problems in the future, tell the truth about the lack of training and risk being fired by Eclipse, or just do nothing. Most people chose to just do nothing."

Lets be clear about this. If you don't know what you are doing, how are supposed to do it right? I feel sorry for the line workers who have to put up with this sort of treatment.

These next set of comments come from a mechanic charged with looking after several of the FPJ's. He seems to be rather busy....

"I have followed your top ten list with interest. I would add repeated failures of yaw and autopilot servos. We maintain xxxx aircraft and have changed at least xx different actuators. Some have failed right out of the box. The most recent failure was of elevator trim actuators that left the aircraft with an un-commanded non responsive nose up trim condition leading to an emergency landing."

I asked how many hours his fleet had, to get some idea of hard they were working. He responded:-

"It is hard to rack up the hours when half the planes are usually down for some kind of maintenance squawk. Cockpit side windows and flap actuators on xxxx different planes have been really serious problems. One thing we have noticed that others haven't seen is that in the pylon area there are small doors called VORE doors that are part the air conditioning system. These have little actuator motors that sit inside a little well bumped into a bottom panel. That well will fill with water and cause corrosion on the motors. We have replaced three and have taken to drilling drain holes to alleviate the problem."

Hmmm, I thinks, the VORE doors is a new one (to me), I'd better share it with the blog.

So now you know.

Next a commentary from a 'working pilot' on the various matters around the Brandywine incident. He has some clearly expressed views, which might help other pilots of the FPJ. Note also that this person is positive about the aircraft, just a bit put out by the avionics.

"As many of my fellow Captains will agree, the FPJ has excellent engines and a pretty solid airframe. It's fuel efficiency is downright fantastic. After looking at the list of shortcomings, you guys have hit the nail on the head. The order might be different than somebody who craves function would like, but this does an excellent job of illustrating the many woes.

However, we are having less problems with tires. It has been weeks since I have heard of one blowing, where I work. This plane doesn't need antiskid, spoilers, or any other device to slow it down. All it needs is average piloting skills and better procedures. I have been teaching the others to bring the stick to full up during braking. This puts more weight on the main wheels for better traction. This technique is filtering it's way through the fleet.

I have years of experience of flying into high density airports with smaller transport aircraft. This plane can mix it very well. What limits it are the idiots that came up with the idea that final approach, from the final approach fix, has to be done at Vref + 10 ( about 103KTS). This school of thought comes from flying heavy transports that have a lot of momentum to control. The FPJ is light, and slows down easily when flaps are brought to landing and the power is idle. It doesn't burn up excessive runway either.

If I were to come up with an approach profile for this plane, this is how it would be. Keep the flaps at the takeoff position until short final with the runway in sight {about 200' AGL}. Speed 120 kts. When landing is assured, power idle, flaps landing. The airspeed will slow to Vref easily. Guess what, it's the same as the single engine approach procedure for this plane. I would also like to increase the max flap extension speed to 125 kts, for flaps landing, instead of the 120 we have now. Another plus is that if the pilot has to do a missed approach, the flaps are already in the takeoff configuration. All the pilot has to do is to raise the landing gear, when the plane is climbing at a positive rate.

We all believe that the FPJ can really be something. Piss poor planning, and execution has prevailed. EAC should "stand down" and concentrate on what's important."

So you see, it's not all bad news. The aircraft is well liked, with a good airframe, engines and fuel burn. The avionics are a problem, but we knew that, and the way EAC treats its customers is a big problem. And we have known that for a long time!

Finally, thanks to all who contributed to our Top Ten Shortcomings list, now winging it's way to the appropriate inbox. The debate was useful, and the original idea from Turboprop_Pilot was just the sort of suggestion the blog needs.

As I finish this, many rumblings reach me from ABQ. More later, I'm pretty sure.

Shane

377 comments:

«Oldest   ‹Older   201 – 377 of 377
Black Tulip said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Black Tulip said...

Baron95,

Your post prompted me to pull a couple of flight manuals and checklists off the shelf. You are vastly underestimating the additional runway length required by a jet (whether or not the Brandywine runway was wet).

For the Citation 500 series:

Wet runway, multiply landing field length by 1.45

Water on runway, multiply landing field length by 2.35

Ice on runway, multiply landing field length by 2.80

For the Learjet 35A:

Wet runway, multiply landing field length by 1.40

Downhill gradient also adds significant required runway length as does anti-skid braking system inoperative. Oops, we’ll ignore that last one.

Shane Price said...

Baron95

P.S. #2 - Shane, thanks for providing the factual info and for your (again fact filled) report on EAC.

You're welcome, but the real thanks are due to many others, including our 'working pilot'. I've lost count of the number of employees, suppliers, customers, depositors and journalists who've taken the time to contact the blog.

Just to remind those of you who have yet to take the plunge:-

eclipsecriticng@gmail.com

Shane
PS. That includes you Peg. You know you can do it...
PPS. Maybe she HAS already contacted me!

Baron95 said...

shane said... You're welcome, but the real thanks are due to many others, including our 'working pilot'. I've lost count of the number of employees, suppliers, customers, depositors and journalists who've taken the time to contact the blog.


I think there is no doubt that the manner in which you conduct yourself, including but not limitted to, protecting the privacy of your sources, is what leads them to provide the info that the trade press is too lazy or too complicitous to seek.

Again thank you.

Baron95 said...

Black Tulip said ...You are vastly underestimating the additional runway length required by a jet (whether or not the Brandywine runway was wet).


Thanks for taking the time to look up the info. I was trying to err on the side of the pilot.

It was an unfortunate decision to land there. It was an unfortunate decision to continue with the landing without a stable and on Vref approach. Given the info we have, there was little chance that the plane could have stopped on the runway. Thank god that no one got injured. And all of us pilots can make mistakes, I've certainly made a few, but this was pushing it too much.

Maybe people are simply just believing the markitecture that these VLJs can land in under 3,000 ft and are not even bothering to look the landing distance in the flight manual.

I think a VLJ like the Eclipse or D-Jet are probably the most difficult planes to land within the book performance. Let me explain...

On a prop plane from a C152 to a BE350, you can clear the obstcles pull the power and experience a significant speed decrease and an instantly steeper glide path. On Twins like the Baron or King Air this is very pronounced. Not only do you have the prop drag, but the airflow from propwash over the wings goes away in a hurry. If anything, on these planes, we worry about landing short/hard vs floating long.

On larger jets, that have more wing load and higher Vrefs, being 5 or 10 kts above Vref is not a terrible deal. +10 on a 130 KTS Vref on a high wing load plane is somewhat manageable (not recomending you fly that way, mind you).

On a VLJ, with an 90 KTS Vref, very low wing loanding and no prop, if you are a bit high and +10, you pull the power to idle and you will still be high and +10 into the flare. Couple that with the small distance between the wing and the runway, and you will float in ground effect for a long time. Your tires may even be in contact with the runway, but you'll be skipping and skidding them if you try to break.

Even the accident plane - 2,000+ feet of skid marks!!! Obviously there was no meaningful breaking action otherwise the plane would have slowed or the tires would have blown. The tires were simply skiping and skidding with little weight on them for the whole length of the runway.

I'm willing to bet that this pilot did not get simulator training on the EA500. If he had, the instructor (if he/she was any good) would have thrown in some 3,000 ft contaminated runway scenarios to convince the pilots that they çan't make it at all, or can only make it if they are exactly on Vref, chop the power, and get on the brakes agressively with aft stick as soon as there is weight on those wheels and continue to increase brake pressure as more weight is on them.

It is really hard to practice this effectively on a real world 3000 ft runway. And on a longer runway, few pilots would abuse the plane with a maximum performance landing just for practice. Certainly not with a plane the chews tires like the EA500.

So that is the result. This pilot, most likely had never done a max performance landing in the EA500. Never ever. When he needed to extract maximum landing performance to even have a chance of stopping on that runway, he didn't know how.

NTSB Prob Cause: PIC improper decision making to land on a short narrow runway. PIP improper landing technique landing at higher than recommended airspeed and failing to appy maximum breaking.

NTSB Contributing factors: Short, narrow, downsloped, wet runway. Defficient training by mannufacturer with no actual or simulated max performance landing practice.

NTSB recommendation: FAA require mannufacturer to ammend training curriculum to include maximum performance landing practice. FAA require mannufacturer to ammend flight mannual to include proper maximum performance landing technique. FAA require mannufacturer to ammend flight mannual to include both maximum performance and normal landing distances. FAA require all previously type rated EA500 pilots to practice at least 10 actual or simulated maximum performance landings at least 3 of which being to contaminated runways.

TBMs_R_Us said...

"EA500 maximum performance landing" is an oxymoron.

Shadow said...

"the trade press is too lazy or too complicitous to seek"

Proof? How do you know what the trade press is seeking, or not seeking for that matter? I've seen pretty good stories in Flight, Avweb, AIN, Flying and some other trade publications that relay the current state of affairs at Eclipse. This is a blog, they are publications. On a blog, you or anyone else can speculate until the cows come home. You can't print unfounded speculation in a publication, at least if it is to remain credible. BTW, did you know that most publications require information to be double or triple sourced, unless it comes directly from the company? And Eclipse ain't exactly talking right now.

Besides, name one trade publication that solely focuses on the Eclipse 500 like this blog does? I double dog dare you...

Shadow said...

Baron said: "NTSB Prob Cause: PIC improper decision making to land on a short narrow runway. PIP improper landing technique landing at higher than recommended airspeed and failing to appy maximum breaking.

NTSB Contributing factors: Short, narrow, downsloped, wet runway. Defficient training by mannufacturer with no actual or simulated max performance landing practice.

NTSB recommendation: FAA require mannufacturer to ammend training curriculum to include maximum performance landing practice. FAA require mannufacturer to ammend flight mannual to include proper maximum performance landing technique. FAA require mannufacturer to ammend flight mannual to include both maximum performance and normal landing distances. FAA require all previously type rated EA500 pilots to practice at least 10 actual or simulated maximum performance landings at least 3 of which being to contaminated runways."

100% pure speculation, right there.

Beedriver said...

Are there any of the supporters of the VLJ concept out there that are willing to put their money where there mouth is?

There is a program for a twin jet utilizing an existing airframe with a lot of them flying now, originally designed to be a jet, that is about 1/2 of the way to flying the first conforming aircraft. the price will be around 1.5 million + or - depending on # of passengers engine size etc. The specs for the preliminary jet will exceed the specs of the Eclipse 500 for speed, climb etc.

the problem is that the program is run by some very practical engineer businessmen that do not make promises they can't keep and run a positive cash flow aviation business now and thus they have found it hard to get money by promising what they can do not the moon. they have a very good staged plan and since it is based on a certified airframe their costs to develop the jet version is much lower and much less risky.

They say they need about $50,000,000 to get it into production.

Are there people on this blog that believe in the future of the VLJ enough that are interested in talking to them to help fund the effort?

I will forward the particulars in a day or so to Shane so he can let you contact them directly.

airtaximan said...

B,

is this the 6 place twin prop that Piper built and sold off a long time ago.. cannot remember the name...

airtaximan said...

Aerostar?

WhyTech said...

" ... the NTSB has released its preliminary report on an accident involving an Eclipse 500 jet on July 30 in Pennsylvania. The NTSB said its investigation did not reveal any pre-impact mechanical failures of the flight control system, brake system, engine control systems, or engines, ...

" ... AOPA reported that Eclipse has told customers who have requested refunds that they will receive them, with interest, by the end of this year. "A company spokesman said the AirVenture announcement of a new round of funding linked to the departure of founder Vern Raburn caused some position holders to believe they would receive their refunds immediately," AOPA said. "However, sufficient funds to complete the refund payments won't be available until the entire finance deal closes, which is anticipated before the end of the year." Also, modifications that have been promised for the jets that have already been delivered are on hold, pending more funding, except for the installation of flight into known icing modifications ..."

Possibly old news, but I dont recall seeing this posted here. The NTSB preliminary report seems to rule out acft failures for now.

The statement re financing, mods, etc makes these issues seem to be substantially in doubt.

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

Aerostar has been promising a jet version for almost as long as Eclipse.

www.aerostar.com

WhyTech said...

"Aerostar?"

Thats the one.

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

www.aerostarjet.com is the correct address.

The FJ100 has been a self-funded development project for a very long time.

Black Tulip said...

Baron95,

Here’s something from the landing data table for the Cessna 525 CitationJet, perhaps relevant to the Brandywine accident:

For a (mere) one percent runway downslope gradient multiply landing distance by 1.27

For a two percent runway downslope gradient multiply landing distance by 2.20

I landed twice last month at Narsarsuaq, Greenland (not in a CJ) – once ‘uphill’ and once ‘downhill’. The 6,000 foot runway is 100 feet higher at the east end, corresponding to a 1.7 percent gradient. The difference in landing distance is very noticeable.

Light jets are operated safely at airports like Brandywine if all the factors are favorable – approach speed, landing weight, wind, density altitude, runway condition, runway gradient, technique and pilot preparedness with a stabilized approach.

I disagree with your sentiment about Vref being less important as airplanes get bigger. The physics is straightforward and the same for all machines. Momentum is proportional to the square of speed. Therefore landing distance suffers big time with a hot landing. If you are ten percent fast (say ten knots), add twenty percent to landing distance. Twenty percent fast… add over forty percent.

Shane Price said...

Shadow makes an excellent point.

In the real world of publishing (which I happen to know a little about) you makes your money with advertising.

To get it, you need to grow your circulation, which requires an expansion of your readership.

Generally, people seek the truth from what they read. So, you need to be accurate, over time.

It's easy for me to take two and two and make 794. I did it a few weeks ago, 'firing' senior EAC staff. Simple mistake, which 'proper' journalists are not allowed to make. But, we don't have staff to pay, overheads to meet, advertisers to seduce etc etc.

Its a blog...

Much, much harder for the aviation press to properly cover someone like Vern, who generates news with a good sales pitch, then backs it up with advertising dollars.

One of his mistakes was to refuse the serious reviewers access to the aircraft in 2006/7. This generated frustration and, finally, suspicion.

I never quite understood that, myself, but I digress.

Let us all be clear what we are about here. Eclipse made promises, which Stan suspected were bogus. Over time, others joined the blog, we got input from suppliers, employees, depositors and finally some owners.

Later, a wave of 'strange' decisions flowed out of EAC, each one even more 'left field' than the last one. The Con Jet, Russia, the avionics 'saga', suppliers getting dumped.

This year, we've had the order book busted by DayJet, funding rounds, Vern's departure and now the effective end of 'high rate' production.

But Stan was still correct. The promises still have not been met. The vast majority of the existing fleet is NOT:-

1. FIKI certified.

2. AvioNG, to enable above.

3. EASA certified.

Hey, I could be here all night listing what still needs doing, to fulfill the original promises.

I hope that EAC pull through, to finish what was started. But somehow, I don't think they will.

Now, I can say that, and you can agree (or disagree) and no one will lose a job, a salesman won't have to calm an angry advertiser down and the readership of this blog can increase or decrease.

In the end, no one will really care what we say. Except for the few people who are really interested in this very special subject.

So Shadow, well done for making the point. Journalists work to much higher standards, and have to make a living doing what they do.

We don't...

Shane

airtaximan said...

.. and we've uncovered a lot of crap....

what does that tell you?
and.. we were sued to shut up...

kinda funny

Perhaps we should charge?


I would love to hear from EOxxx and find out how he's doing?

Shane Price said...

ATman,

No, I don't think we should charge.

Or allow advertising.

Then we would have to employ staff, pay bills, worry about strategy and all the rest of the stuff we have to do in the 'day job'.

I believe the blog should be free, open, and most of all, informative.

And it's nice to have a bit of fun thrown in every now and then.

Speaking of fun, it's some time since we were graced by a 'Black Tulip' special.

How about it BT? I can promise you headline billing.

But I won't pay a cent!

Shane
PS I will buy you a pint of Guinness, next time you're over....

Black Tulip said...

Shane,

Sadly, most of the recent news from New Mexico has not been happy, nor the subject of satire or parody. If this changes you will be the first to know.

I hate to see so many people lose so much.

Niner Zulu said...

Anyone notice that the premiums on Cessna Mustangs are fast disappearing?

My guess is that in 6 to 9 months all premiums will be gone and that people who need to sell them will be offering them at a discount.

Eclipses - I think that not only will these NOT hold their value, but the used ones will have to be substantially discounted in order to sell. Probably sub-$1 million if Eclipse somehow stays in business, substantially less if they don't.

Baron95 said...

beedriver said ... There is a program for a twin jet utilizing an existing airframe with a lot of them flying now, originally designed to be a jet, that is about 1/2 of the way to flying the first conforming aircraft.

Please tell me that this is NOT (again) the idea of putting jet engines on an Aerostar. Aerostars were NOT designed to be a jet. Ted Smith did envision derivatives that could be jet powered, but no engineering was done with that consideration.

There is NO flying prop plane today that can readily easily be addapted to being a jet. God knows that Piper is trying to tap the Mlaibu/Meridian parts bin for the Piper Jet, but even them have enough brains only reuse the mid fuselage section. At least I hope they don't try to use more.

So, if you are talking about the Aerostar, not a chance. That airframe is quirky as it is (as a prop plane), it doesn't need any more complications.

Baron95 said...

Shadow said ... How do you know what the trade press is seeking, or not seeking for that matter?

How? By reading. And I should be more clear. I was referring to the aviation written trade magazines. Other than aviation consumer, they almost never have critical reporting on airplanes. They are cheer leader repeater of company lines.

Look at the last issue of AOPA magazine (the largest of the publications). "Eclipse E500: Ready for Prime Time" right on the cover. What the h$@# were they thinking?!!!??? And that was one of the most ballanced stories they have published on a mannufactuere (I said so here).

How about the story on the A500? Best thing since sliced bread, "a novel idea" (wasn't there a C337?). Completely disregarding that the plane had ZERO - that is right - ZERO full fuel payload. Had a horrible, noisy, vibration filled cabin, performed substantially slower than a Malibu with 1/2 the power and a bigger cabin. Was a few weeks away from bankruptcy.

It is trully discusting. ANY honest reporting would have a headline lie "Eclipse 500: Still not ready for prime time" or "Eclipse 500: Still Strugling to Climb".

It is completely dishonest and disgusting that AOPA Magazine, a publication that, after all, represents pilots and owners, would put on its cover a headline that said Eclipse 500 - Ready for Prime Time. Disgusting. There are no two ways about it.

Of course Eclipse had two pages of ads in that issue.

Baron95 said...

9Z with the mods on hold and the company clearly out of funds, about 100 planes parked, Ed trying to unload his planes (which are the more desirable Part 135 equipped and debugged planes on the market), I doubt very much that any EA500 will sell. I think that plane right now has no bottom on price.

FlightCenter said...

The latest report from the FAA actually shows that Eclipse is doing pretty well in delivering aircraft.

They have delivered 11 aircraft in the first 15 days of August.

They have only exceeded this delivery rate in December, April and June.

They have now delivered a total of 240 aircraft to customers.

Dave said...

Ed trying to unload his planes (which are the more desirable Part 135 equipped and debugged planes on the market), I doubt very much that any EA500 will sell. I think that plane right now has no bottom on price.

Not that I disagree with your conclusion, I just think Ed's FPJs have some strikes against them since they are very early models. Because they are so early even though they've had more bugs worked out of them, they also have more bugs to begin with.

Shadow said...

Baron, define "aviation written trade magazines," because wouldn't Flying, AIN, Flight International and Avweb fit that description?

I also see AOPA Pilot primarily as an association mouthpiece, not a true aviation trade publication. I get the magazine, but rarely ever read it. I suspect I'm not alone.

AOPA Pilot will suffer by publishing a puff piece on Eclipse, but why are you painting with the same broad brush by saying that all of the pubs are giving Eclipse a free pass? I call shenanigans, here.

And Aviation Consumer isn't the only one to print negative things. Go read Mac McClellan's numerous editorials on Eclipse over the past 10 years or so and just try to say with a straight face that he wasn't critical of Vern, the company and the plane.

Dave said...

Did Eclipse give Swift the impression that if the Frankenjet got greenlit for production that Swift would build them rather than Eclipse/ETIRC?:
Swift made and designed a prototype four-seat jet for Albuquerque-based Eclipse Aviation Corp.
The Eclipse 400 debuted at the AirVenture show in Oshkosh, Wis., a year ago. The company is expected to give more details about productions plans later this year.
“It could be a huge deal for us,” Egan said. “They were looking to make about 5,000 of them.”

http://www.ocbj.com/industry_article_pay.asp?aID=72584956.5826487.1669837.370138.9153238.994&aID2=128440

Baron95 said...

dave said ... Because they are so early even though they've had more bugs worked out of them, they also have more bugs to begin with.


Good point. I failed to consider that. Obviously, if Eclipse ever produces an AvioNG FIKI, G400W equipped and certified plane, that would be the more valuable subtype. But it doesn't look like they'll get there anytime soon.

Baron95 said...

On another note.... If I were a company intent on buying the Eclipse assets, I'd let them go BK, buy all the planes on the market for cents on the $ while they are totaly orphaned, then buy the assets, upgrade sell the planes I bought as fully functional, fully supported for a much higher price, then charge a few hundred thousand each to upgrade the others, then, and only then attempt to resume production at a profitable price/volume (if it can be achieved).

Ceri said...

Yup, 'as new', 'remanufactured' airplanes. Takes non-conforming product off the second hand market, prevents production of a/c on which you lose money for every copy, gets a working, finished aircraft into the hands of position holders. Everyone wins.

(Even the ones selling their jets for 30-50 cents on the dollar - who else is going to buy them at this stage?).

Of course, the current management of Eclipse can do the same thing, if they can finesse the BK issue. As Shane mentioned in his recent summary, they're likely to walk away from VR's promises about retrofits, anyway.

airtaximan said...

Shane
PS I will buy you a pint of Guinness, next time you're over....


ME or BT?

HAHAH!

And you know, I was just joshing about charging -

PS. do you see stats on how many people visit the blog - I am curious

Shane Price said...

ATman,

I was trying, unsuccessfully it would appear, to bribe Black Tulip.

It was of course remiss of me not make a more general offer, at least to the 'Honor Roll'...

The best way of describing the visitor numbers is to tell you that I've had serious offers to advertise on the site.

Which is another way of admitting I don't have a clue, and must really find someone to ask....

Shane

Dave said...

Linear Air wants to buy more Eclipses, DayJet labeled a cautionary tale:
http://www.hartfordbusiness.com/news6331.html

Black Tulip said...

Shane,

Stan had data provided by Google on the number of visits to the site by month. Ask how he did it.

Shane Price said...

BT,

I had a quick look around myself. Seem that most of the 'packages' are now designed to push you into 'AdWords' or some similar advertising program.

I'm pretty reluctant to go down that road, as my comments over time have made clear.

So, in addition to Stan (I've emailed him already) I would be quite happy to hear from any of you with suggestions.

eclipsecriticng@gmail.com

Thanks in advance.

Also, I've just switched on the 'email' flag, which makes it easier you to send the blog to your friends. I really should do a bit more housekeeping, every now and then....

Shane

airsafetyman said...

"Aerostars were NOT designed to be a jet."

Well, the Jet Commander was developed from the earlier turboprop Aero Commanders which were developed from the earlier still recip versions, so it can be done sometimes.

flyboymark said...

I fly an Aerostar 600....Ted Smith was instrumental in the design of all those aircraft that airsafetyman mentioned...and baron95 they have no "quirky" habits, the airplane is a pussy cat to fly. All the negative hype about the airplane is a bunch of jealous people who never had their hands on the yoke of one....you jus' don't fly it like a 172 @ 60 Kts.

Long live the Aerostar

P.S.
Christy's crew has a new gear and spar mod that ups the gross to 6,850 with no ill effects on certain models.

Baron95 said...

Dave said...
Linear Air wants to buy more Eclipses


I hope you didn't miss in the article, that the prime personal trip booked by the customer on Liear Air is a trip from CT to Martha's Vineyard (MVY). The featured customer is a neighbor of mine, and as I said before in here (and got the standard "that is a prop mission" challenge), trips to MVY and ACK are "the prime" charter mission for jets in this part of the country.

It happens to be my primary personal mission as well, so I know it well.

Yes the Baron is a good option. An SR22 can fly it well, if you can get your non-flying spouse, friends kids, to accept flying over water in one engine.

But some of us, and our passengers, just don't want to do it on noisy, vibrating, unpresurized, funky to start, piston planes anymore.

Too bad Eclipse messed it up so badly on the execution.

WhyTech said...

"to MVY and ACK are "the prime" charter mission for jets in this part of the country."

Having made the flight to MVY and ACK many times, it would seem that there is no point in arriving in anything less than a GIV/GV/G550. ;-)

Baron95 said...

flyboymark said...
I fly an Aerostar 600....Ted Smith was instrumental in the design of all those aircraft that airsafetyman mentioned...and baron95 they have no "quirky" habits,


FB, It has been a long time since I've flown an A-star, and I don't remember well all the systems. I really enjoyed the flying qualities. However, they are quirky in some areas.

The ingres/egress to the plane is quirky - basically through the pilot's seat. The fuel system is very, very quirky and was the subjects of multiple ADs. It carries a HUGE amount of fuel, in the fuselage, right behind the passengers. It has an electric fuel valve control, which can make the pilot unable to switch fuel tanks if the plane were to loose electrical power. The plane, IIRC, had NO STALL WARNING system at all - and that was in a high wing loading plane. The top half of the door had a nasty habit of popping open on take off - you say, OK, many planes have that problem. Yes, but on the aerostart, the door is right next to the pilots head and inches from the spinning propeler, it is really a nasty thing. I have never flown a plane that had som much racket from the props as the Aerostar, but I confess, I may be mis-remembering the few flights.

In my mind, the biggest problem from making a jet out of the Aerostar is that, there is simply no place for fuel. The wings are just too thin, have too little dyhedral - it is a non starter. Fuel in the fuselage, in the amounts required would just be a nightmare and the CG would be all wrong without the heavy piston engines upfront.

In other words, it would be best to start with a clean sheet than trying to fix all these problems.

In my mind, the Aerostar would not even make a good turboprop because of the lack of space for fuel.

Dave said...

I hope you didn't miss in the article, that the prime personal trip booked by the customer on Liear Air is a trip from CT to Martha's Vineyard (MVY). The featured customer is a neighbor of mine, and as I said before in here (and got the standard "that is a prop mission" challenge), trips to MVY and ACK are "the prime" charter mission for jets in this part of the country.

Yes and you have to look at who is flying them. I believe both statements are true that is both a prop mission and that it is also a prime jet charter mission. The person profiled is a business owner rather than some mid-level manager (DayJet's target market). If you're someone lower on the totem pole, you'd probably find yourself out of a job as soon as your expense report came in that you'd book at $6K flight (in the case of Linear Air), which is what the article mentions as an example flight. Speaking economically if you're someone who has to file an expense report and justify your expenses I believe a prop would have the most business justification. It depends on the purpose of the flight and who you are. I don't think there's a vast untapped market for DayJet there as DayJet is currently configured.

PawnShop said...

The ingres/egress to the [Aerostar] is quirky - basically through the pilot's seat.

That was my second thought about an Aerostar jet ( my first was that the cabin's a bit cramped, whereupon I realized that a big part of that impression is due to the door's location ). Without props, the door could be located further back.

I have never flown a plane that had som much racket from the props as the Aerostar

With the hair dryers mounted out back, that wouldn't be an issue.

It seems fairly apparent ( to my ignorant eyes, anyway ) that an Aerostar jet would need a new wing - both to hold enough fuel, and mounted below the cabin to accommodate moving it so CG could be right. It's that whole Piper Jet scenario all over again - bits of the fuselage barrel, plus various & sundry of the other systems would work on a jet.

DI

airsafetyman said...

"Aerostars were NOT designed to be a jet."


Thinking back a bit, I believe the Grumman GII Gulfstream was developed from the GI Gulfstream. The GII was not a clean sheet design either. The GII, GIII, GIV, and so forth seems to have had modest success in the market without starting out as a pure jet.

airtaximan said...

"Linear Air wants to buy more Eclipses"

sooo???

Why don't they?

sphealey said...

> Go read Mac McClellan's numerous
> editorials on Eclipse over the past
> 10 years or so and just try to say
> with a straight face that he
> wasn't critical of Vern, the
> company and the plane.

There was a point however, and I think it was shortly after Richard Collins' back-of-the-envelope analysis of the fundamental engineering physics of the Eclipse, that _Flying_ at least just stopped writing about it. I have always wondered if some sort of pressure was brought to bear (either through the corporate parent or through the advertising dept) or if they just figured it wasn't worth their time anymore.

sPh

Beedriver said...

don't throw rocks at the Aerostar until you have flown one. the 600 and the 700 are different airplanes to fly . my 700/602P is the only cabin class twin that I know of that will climb on one engine with takeoff flaps, gear down, one windmilling, at gross. cleaned up it will climb at 500 FPM on one. this is the 700 version with two 350 HP engines at a gross weight of 6315 lbs.

If you really want to know the scoop talk to Jim Christy at Aerostar aircraft 800 442 4242 and get a ride in the piston version. or talk to the aerostar owners group (aerostar-owners.com) and there will be someone in your area happy to give you a ride.

Aerostar aircraft has a stretched cabin version that is actually certified as the 800 that stretches the cabin and moves the door back enough so there is room for 6 nicely to 8 maximum,. there are straightforward options to improve the airplane if new ones were to be manufactured.

I AM NOT VERN said...

"to MVY and ACK are "the prime" charter mission for jets in this part of the country."

Having made the flight to MVY and ACK many times, it would seem that there is no point in arriving in anything less than a GIV/GV/G550. ;-)"

As someone who lives on ACK about 5 months of the year I can tell you I see those Linear Air E500s sitting on the ramp a lot. The key term here is SITTING. You see the C-402s, Caravans, and PC12s buzzing back and forth many times per day. The little E500s are NOT getting much flight time.

I agree they are a good plane for many of the MVY and ACK charter trips. Why?

They fly mostly in the summer (no need for FIKI).
The distances are short. Usually 100 NM or less. (So there is no need to go high)
The WX is usually good VFR. (So there is no need for IFR instrumentation).

Outside these parameters there isn't much use for an E500.

gadfly said...

Earlier today, I asked an acquaintance (an FAA Air Traffic Controller) what he thinks of the “Eclipse”. He said they (E500's) are considered “road blocks”, trying to fly with the big boys at altitude, but so much slower . . . a real pain, in the way, and slowing things down. It was a simple question, with a simple candid answer, of someone who deals with the little bird on a somewhat regular basis, not far from the home nest.

gadfly

(His location is not at ABQ, but near enough, yet far enough away that by the time they have control, the little bird has had plenty of time to climb to altitude and be at cruise speed.)

Baron95 said...

I AM NOT VERN said...
Having made the flight to MVY and ACK many times, it would seem that there is no point in arriving in anything less than a GIV/GV/G550. ;-)"


Geez, thanks. Now you know why I need to upgrade the Baron to a personal jet. MVY is my prime personal mission.

And by the way, I know the prime trick to park right up front the GA gate ;)

But I am glad you get what most here don't get. For a non-trivial size of the flying public, that can afford a $1.5M plane loan and the operating expense, they really, really, really, really are waiting for a jet to fly. Almost any jet will do. That is why so many, like Ken, put up with the abuse from Vern to get one.

Yes, a $42K Hyundai Genesis 4.6 may be a great sedan, but for some "missions" in some "places" you "need" a 750 or 550 or better.

Same deal with Northeast/New England to MVY or CA to Aspen. It is a jet mission, weather you like it or not.

Baron95 said...

gadfly said...
He said they (E500's) are considered “road blocks”, trying to fly with the big boys at altitude, but so much slower


Funny thing. That is exactly what they said when B767s started flying the Atlantic with the 747s and the like or when the 737NGs/A320s started flying coast-to-coast amongst the faster birds. (and that was before RSVM, and only 1/2 the high flight levels were used). A foreign ATC manager once told me that the 767s were called airway corks.

But guess what? The slower A320s/737/767s displaced virtually all other tpes in coast to coast, and in the 80s displaced a lot of the faster 747, DC10, L1011, 707, DC8 traffic.

And today, no ATC manger gives it a second thought. You manage the speed difference just like you did when the Citation 500 started flying with the 707s in the same airspace.

Gad, why don't you ask that same controller what he thinks of the Mustang or original CJs of C500s, 501s, 502s, all of which are slower than the Eclipse and are flying in much greater numbers?

Why is the Eclipse, being faster by 30+kts than the Mustang and 40+ KTS faster than a C500 a specific problem?

Why?



You coments

gadfly said...

Baron

Maybe the man has opinions of a hundred other aircraft . . . but I only asked him what he thought of the Eclipse, without putting any other thoughts into his mind, pro or con. A simple wide open question. And in the few seconds of our conversation, the first thing that he expressed was that it is a “road block”, holding up the other traffic. That’s all. He offered a couple other comments from the viewpoint of ATC . . . and went his way.

gadfly

(When I ask for an opinion, I usually avoid loading the question, because a candid answer has value.)

Shane Price said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Shane Price said...

Karen Di Piazza has been at it again, and it's a cracking bit of journalism.

CharterX News

Make sure to read the last segment, entitled 'Eclipse Jet Safety Probe'.

Shane

WhyTech said...

"Almost any jet will do. "

Even an Eclipse 500. A sad but true commentary on our society.

julius said...

Shane,

after reading Karen Di Piazza's article the financing round will/can only be finished after FAA's and DoT IG's investigations and results are presented.
VR might have cut his links to EAC - but I think EAC will reactivate its links to him.

But for the time being EAC is paralyzed. There are so many liabilities and assets mainly consist of TC and PC which are in probe.

Everyone who now gives a $ to EAC must be aware that EAC might return nothing for the $ or even a bill for depoluting an FPJ.

julius

fred said...

that piece of "news" is really worrying ...!!

a very good resume of the story ...

i like the bit " no money to make your plane ..." but a little before "EAC is still selling and taking deposits ...

strangely enough , i don't understand how someone can be stupid enough to put a cent into this nightmare ...

to me it sounds like throwing a handfull of coins up in the air and to bet on which ones are to stay there (up in air) ...
and expecting to win the bet !

incroyable ! unmoglich ...!

airtaximan said...

"for a non-trivial size of the flying public, that can afford a $1.5M plane loan and the operating expense"

the only question is, is this (exact) segment large enough to justify what it takes to end up with such a product? The volume is key, and I would venture to say, its not as big as you think.

Once again, if its a jet you wish for, for a 1 hr mission... its probably "preference" vs. need... and most of these mission will be flown in a prop.

Just my 2 cents... and I won't say it again... sounding like a broken record.

airsafetyman said...

"Almost any jet will do. "


But not an "almost jet". I mean, really, isn't "arriving" in an Eclipse about the same as going to your daughter's wedding in a rusty 1972 Ford Pinto?

Shane Price said...

Whytech,

'A sad but true commentary on our society

First, a very perceptive comment, as usual.

Second, your comment applies not just to 'American' but any materialistic society, almost around the globe.

Third, like all 'toys' just watch the bottom fall out of this VLJ market, which has been over hyped as The Answer.

Seems to me like things will get a little worse, before the market(s) recover.

Shane

airsafetyman said...

If you want to project that "I'm rich and have this aviation thing down pat" look when you arrive at "the Vinyard", try a Beech Duke. The Eclipse gives off the "I wanna be rich and am totally clueless about anything to do with aviation so I will hazard my family before I will admit that I was played like a piano" look.

fred said...

yes , at ...

it sounds more like "the need" of a spoiled kid ...

than the real need of someone who has weighted all aspects of problem ...!

say a lot about the time we are living in ...

personally , the best car i ever had was a Citroen 2CV ...

very unattractive to any thief , never going faster than 120 KM/h , the model i had was older than me when i got it ... the windshield whippers were even manual ...(a knob that you had to turn yourself to fit your need )

all together the car was 480 Kgs

few aspects were excellent :

a full tank could take you to other side of world (off-course , a way of saying !)

a very safe car ( it was common to say "it never leave the road unless you want it!")

very simple to fix ( i , once fixed the gear-box with a friend on the side of the road where it broke down with almost no tools at all ...by taking it out , fixing it and putting it back ...)

just a shame it doesn't exist anymore ( it was a ruin for mechanics and car dealers , meant to be only 2 or 3 in a lifetime for anyone ...)

so anyone who "NEED" a jet-plane to pick-up groceries or for a one hour trip sound very much like one of my last girl-friend who always needed a new something ... until i dropped her in a shop ...!

PawnShop said...

"An FAA inspector said, ‘I'm getting calls everyday from FAA in Washington, telling me we've got to approve this plane.' The FAA inspector asked me and other personnel, ‘Do you think this aircraft is ready'? I and several other Eclipse inspectors said, ‘Hell no.'"

That's gonna leave a mark!

I smell more subpoenas ( subpoenae? ) coming on. This time they won't be going where Vern chooses - the Honor Roll can sleep easy

Would you like the combo?
IANAL

Black Tulip said...

Karen Di Piazza has done another nice job of investigative journalism. She has drawn from several sources to produce a more complete picture.

Perhaps Eclipse is struggling because they failed to adhere to the principles laid down by a famous Bostonian a century ago. Charles Ponzi knew that early 'investors' must be repaid at favorable rates in order to attract new money.

airtaximan said...

"too little, AND too late" should be the title...

I am not Aboulafia:
"But this was a foolish, unrealistic and possibly deceptive business plan from the start. Investors, customers and true believers must have had an idea that events would transpire like this."

Lastly, the safety concerns, known issues like the throttle, like the 250 issues making the plane "unfit" and the possible "explosion due to corrosion"....

Weekend with he kids at Marth's Vinyard - %4000

Flying there on a Caravan - $2000

Not flying in an unfit, explosive, HAL driven microjet - PRICELESS

PawnShop said...

Not flying in an unfit, explosive, HAL driven microjet - PRICELESS

I'm warming up to the nickname "Man'd Grenade" for the FPJ.

Would you like the Zesty Sauce?
DI

Shane Price said...

Dave I,

I object!

Grenades are pretty reliable, and generally only explode after you pull the pin....

Shane

Dave said...

I am not Aboulafia:
"But this was a foolish, unrealistic and possibly deceptive business plan from the start. Investors, customers and true believers must have had an idea that events would transpire like this."


I think Vern knew from the very beginning that it couldn't happen and he'd just tell investors whatever he thought they wanted to hear...his bashing of the aviation industry, his unrealistic production numbers, his unrealistic market size, etc was all done for the sake of investors. I believe there is a long string of public comments that Eclipse has been made where shortly after the comments have come out, it is then learned that it had something to do with what the investors were looking for.

The most obvious way to see that Vern was lying was in the number of employees versus the stated construction time. Vern said it would take 600 hours to build the FPJ except for painting and testing:
The result is no more than 600 hours to assemble the aircraft in Albuquerque, outside of paint work, according to Raburn, plus a five-fold improvement in tolerance control. The goal is to produce each aircraft in Albuquerque in 10 days, including one and one-half days in production flight test and two in the painting process.
http://www.reprintbuyer.com/mags/buscomav/1-10788404-eprint.pdf

Then here is Eclipse claiming they'd make 1500 units per year with 1500 employees:
The company says it will be building 1,500 planes a year by 2011 and employing 1,500 people.
http://www.bizjournals.com/albuquerque/stories/2005/04/04/story4.html

Note in all my quotes I only took articles from 2005. For the sake of argument assume that it took 1000 hours (600 hours + testing and painting and I'm being generous in saying that would be another 400 hours) that would mean it would only take around 700 employees to turn out 1500 units per year and that half the employees at Eclipse would be non-manufacturing staff, which doesn't make sense. I believe Vern knowingly made up a false business plan that was just meant to tell people what they wanted to hear no matter how false it was. Like "1,500 units and 1,500 employees" sounds good, so does bashing the aviation industry saying that you could build a jet in 600 hours because everyone else is in the stone age and then claiming to have all sorts of technology that was mere window dressing - and it doesn't square with the 1,500 units with 1,500 employees bit. The math just doesn't add up in Eclipse's pre-production claims, but it all sounds very good. That would also explain the rush for an IPO with Vern trying to cash out before the house of cards collapsed, which many dot-coms did this. Now it looks like Vern is trying to get out without a big payday before his house of cards collapses.

Formerly known as "Just zis guy, you know?" said...

Baron said:

"Maybe they both will bump their operating altitudes to 30Kft in time, getting even better."

I think we've already been over this. Unless the FAR is changed, FL250 is the ceiling for these airplanes.

Formerly known as "Just zis guy, you know?" said...

"I'm really surprised at how much troble Diamond has had in meeting basic performance targets for their two latest planes the DA42 and D-Jet. It is like when they stepped out of their glider like singles, they couldn't get performance out of the planes and they came out extra-heavy on top of it all. I hope they can recover, but I am not too optimistic."

People who have never done it, always underestimate the complexity that builds as you build more and more capable aircraft. This is why so many fail. You can say WCSYC all you want, but until you've done it, you don't know what you're talking about. So, Diamond and Cirrus are overweight and have underestimated the complexity of the systems. Should we be surprised?

Formerly known as "Just zis guy, you know?" said...

That will leave us all with no GA Jet below $3M for the foreseable future.
Sad to even think about it.


If that actually does happen I think much of that will be because of Eclipse by doing a very high profile flame-out it will scare investing money out of aviation.

It will be because of several things:

1) The products were misconceived and weren't viable, &
2) The companies underestimated the task they were taking on

The fact is, underestimating not only affects economics, if affects airframe design. Note the discussion about Eclipse moving things to the nose. They underestimated the design requirements which caused cascading changes that made a bad design worse. They will not be the only ones to do this. Baron pointed out Diamond, but they are in the same boat with others.

Dave said...

DayJet in Macon. 30 members and 100 flights at Macon. Also we learn Eclipse has made 2500 customer trips overall:
http://www.macon.com/198/story/434742.html

Formerly known as "Just zis guy, you know?" said...

You can't print unfounded speculation in a publication, at least if it is to remain credible. BTW, did you know that most publications require information to be double or triple sourced, unless it comes directly from the company?

At some point these publications need to start realizing that the unfounded speculation is COMING DIRECTLY FROM these companies. They are willing to publish whatever their told without engaging their own brains. This is actually common in the press, unfortunately.

BricklinNG said...

I want, let's say, a new airplane that is pressurized, can fly above most weather and can be owner flown. My budget might allow $2 million with strain; I am pretty price sensitive, however. I live in New England and fly some short trips and some long trips. I go to Nantucket, I go around the eastern USA on business and I go to the Bahamas. Now what should I get for an airplane?

Today's choices

Mirage: $1.2m
Meridian: 2.1m
Eclipse: would not want

Add these "near future"

Cirrus jet: $1.5 m
Diamond jet: $1.5m
Pressurized Diamond: $700k

I appreciate the validity of the comments on turboprop vs. jet, but if the above are the choices then it looks to me like the pressurized Diamond is the economy choice and the Cirrus or Diamond Jet are the upscale choices, with distinction between these 2 impossible at present because we don't know performance or price specifics.

Niner Zulu said...

The future of Eclipse is looking pretty grim.

There are 80 Eclipse E500's listed in Controller, plus 5 E400's - a model the factory hasn't even confirmed they will build.

What is surprising are the asking prices - many are asking between $1.7 & $2.0 million, in a pointless exercise to try and make a profit. I wonder what part of their brain is controlling their common sense - how do they intend to get these prices when other owners are willing to sell at whatever price they can get?

There is a certain herd mentality that surrounds the Eclipse. People unwilling to see the truth, willing to believe the hype that most of the critics here find unbelievable, willing to believe that there are buyers for their jets at prices that have never been reached. It's disturbing.

The position holders that are suing are the smart ones. At least they stand a chance of seeing the return of their money before Eclipse is BK. Eclipse has no real defense, all they can do is stall as long as possible. If these cases get to court in in a timely manner, Eclipse will lose and will have to pay all court costs and possible damages - a cost far more than the original deposit. This is not the strategy of a healthy company.

At the end of the day, the people who lose money on their Eclipse's probably deserve to.

Turboprop_pilot said...

Bricklining:

Having owned a Malibu, TBM and Meridian, I'd say the Diamond DA50 has NO chance at a $700k price. The same complexity issues that have sunk their jet and Eclipse will drive the price up but it may end up close to the Mirage and be a better plane if they have better aerodynamics and a stronger wing... then maybe not.

To me used makes the most sense- I lost $500k on the new TBM and my used Meridian, taken in trade on the TBM, is worth about what is was two years ago. I'd never spend $2.1 million on a new Meridian.

Turboprop_pilot

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

Bricklin, the Epic LT fits your bill for about $1.7M, half the fuel flow, more range, more lifting capability, and you can probably have one flying in 14 months - maybe less.

Just saying. The LT would fit your mission, has great ramp presence/sex appeal (I have witnessed this myself).

TBMs_R_Us said...

My budget might allow $2 million with strain; I am pretty price sensitive, however. I live in New England and fly some short trips and some long trips. I go to Nantucket, I go around the eastern USA on business and I go to the Bahamas. Now what should I get for an airplane?

You can get a very nice used TBM 700 for under $2M. Fits your flight profile exactly.

Not sure why you would only include new aircraft if you had $2M to spend.

Formerly known as "Just zis guy, you know?" said...

My belief is still that Vern always had a dot-com philosophy. All they had to do was get the company up and running and they could IPO for 10-100X its value and get the original investors out clean. The company could then lose money and screw over the shareholders in the publicly traded company.

When this stopped being a possibility, I think he didn't have a plan which led to the eventual sell-out to the Russians.

Baron95 said...

WhyTech said...
"Almost any jet will do. "

Even an Eclipse 500. A sad but true commentary on our society.


Unfortunately so. When there are no options for a market niche, people take crappy products.

Do you remmber, after the oil crisis in the late 70s, early 80s, when people wanted more efficient cars? Do you remember the CRAP that people were forced to buy from Detroit? But over time, the market corrects itself, and the result of selling crap is that Detroit enabled Honda and Toyota and Nissan to move in and lost the high end to the Europeans. Permanently.

Same in low end GA. Cessna, Piper, Mooney, Beech continued to push the same old crap in the 80s/early 90s. Cessna was bought/sold/exited the market for a decade. Been was bought sold, slowed GA production to a trickle with just 2 models. Piper, Mooney went bankrupt, and started/stopped.

As a result, Cirrus, became the top light GA seller. Fast turboprop personal transportation went to the Europeans with TBM/Pilatus. If Eclipse had executed well, the same could have happened to jets. Now we have to wait yet again for Diamond, then Cirrus to try.

But there remains a real possibility that the entire low end of GA goes to new entrants or new entrant designs Cirrus, Diamond, Columbin, etc in a few years.

And the thing is that people remember. The guy that bought the crappy Ford or Chevy compact in 1980, then bought a Honda or Toyota in 1990 is not likely to go back, EVER.

The guy that bought the crappy Cessna or Piper in 1985, then bought a Cirrus in 2000, is not liely to go back, EVER.

TBMs_R_Us said...

To me used makes the most sense- I lost $500k on the new TBM and my used Meridian, taken in trade on the TBM, is worth about what is was two years ago. I'd never spend $2.1 million on a new Meridian.

The new TBMs are now holding their value pretty well on the resale market. The demand for se turbo-props has gone way up with the fuel prices. The TBM 850 in particular is now being purchased by guys stepping down from twin-jets for economic reasons. 320 ktas isn't that much slower than the jets being traded.

Baron95 said...

Fred said ... personally , the best car i ever had was a Citroen 2CV ...a shame it doesn't exist anymore.


Well, Fred, you'll be happy to know that it looks like Citroen is bringing the 2CV back, and it is just as wierd as the original.

Here is the picture and article for your delight:

http://www.autoblog.com/2008/08/06/reborn-citroen-2cv-is-weird-as-original/

Formerly known as "Just zis guy, you know?" said...

Bricklin, the Epic LT fits your bill for about $1.7M, half the fuel flow, more range, more lifting capability, and you can probably have one flying in 14 months - maybe less.

Just saying. The LT would fit your mission, has great ramp presence/sex appeal (I have witnessed this myself).


And you would buy this plane that basically is made for you by someone else but isn't certified, and you would put your family in it? No thanks for me.

Of course, there will be a certified version, but they don't want to certify it in the US because it's too hard to deal with the FAA (I'm sure the FAA won't be suspicious of them at all since the company is obviously trying to avoid dealing with them).

Sorry, the FAR's exist for good reasons. It's one thing to build a little toy plane as a kit, but as these things get more complicated they get more and more unsafe. I've talked with some of the guys at the kit plane companies on their more complicated designs and they scare the living !@#$ out of me. These planes aren't certificated because they're certifiable in their current form, and 49% of them (theoretically) is built by YOU, who have lots of personal experience building airplanes...

Formerly known as "Just zis guy, you know?" said...

Correction:

These planes aren't certificated because they're NOT certifiable in their current form.

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

zis guy - you do not underestand the reg's if you think Transport Canada is easier to deal with than FAA.

And yes, I would fly my family in the LT, I would cross mountain ranges in the dark with it - and I would fly over open water.

I have flown it, I have spent time at the factory, I have examined the molds, the pieces, the methods, the paperwork - it is a solid, well designed and well supported airplane.

Furthermore, people of high net worth are choosing this plane over TBM's, PC-XII's, Meridian's and similar.

The LT features modern aerodynamics, modern systems, modern avionics, de-ice, etc., all the things the Eclipse promised but failed to deliver, and it does it 100 kts faster the Meridian or PC-XII.

Yes, I like the plane alot but in terms of pure engineering, pure performance it is unparalleled.

Baron95 said...

Just zis guy, you know? said...
I think we've already been over this. Unless the FAR is changed, FL250 is the ceiling for these airplanes.


You should tell that to Piper, since they are planning to certify their SEJ to 35,000ft.

But what do they know, right? ;)

Dave said...

You should tell that to Piper, since they are planning to certify their SEJ to 35,000ft.
But what do they know, right? ;)


Forgive me for my Eclipse-induced skepticism, but to me the key word there is "planning."

fred said...

baron

your link is interesting , but to me it look like shit !
i did like the original because it was a non-expensive (buying,using,fixing,keeping) way to go from A to B , just because means of transportation are meant for that very thing !

your 2CV is a kind of paris hilton's brain production ... (p.h. and brain in same sentence ? better take my pills !)

more seriously = life is much too short to do things for what others are going to think of you ...

you feel you need a jet ?
fine !

i just don't think it is glamorous or flashy ...but on that i am probably much too european already ...

and it is exactly like some others already wrote :

if you want to look "coooooool" , in a Fpj you would look "would want to be has been "...

which could be fine (it is up to anyone to waste their cash !) until you put your family inboard , then it would become almost criminal ...

Black Tulip said...

CWM,

I visited the Epic factory and saw the LT fly last May. It is a beautiful aircraft. They were adding boots but no heated windshield yet. Hopefully it will soon have 'all the comforts of home'.

fred said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
fred said...

niner :

# some E400 on offer on controller.com#

thanks for info ...

stupidity has absolutely no limits , you just confirmed it ...! ;-))

as for what part of brain do they use :
both hemisphere of brain are hosted 5 centimeters (+/- 2 inches) below their belt ...!

Baron95 said...

tbm_r_us said ... Not sure why you would only include new aircraft if you had $2M to spend.

For one simple reason. G1000-G700-SVS. This is a huge demark in light GA aviation.

There is little difference in a 1995 and 2005 TBM700 or a 1984 or 2006 Baron, etc.

But, for light GA, the introduction of the G-1000-G700-SVS changes everything. And that is not retrofitable yet/easily/cheaply.

So, yes. Used will be an option in the future. But, what you will see, is that a 2008/2009 TBM with G-1000 (particularly once SVS is added) will likely hold very closely to 100% resale value. So it won't help.

We need simpler turbine products in the market.

Baron95 said...

Briklinng said ... Pressurized Diamond: $700k

I'm sorry to burst your bubble, but that simply will not happen.

I don't know if you haven't noticed, but Diamond is on an Eclipse-like spiral.

D-Jet: Re engine for more power, postpone certification by 1 year.

DA-50: Reengine (Magnum), Add presurization (SuperStar), delay certification by 18months.

This does not bode well, at all.
A - There is no way the Superstar can be pumbed with those large windows.
B - Weight will go through the roof.
C - Their performance numbers are not competitive. They are quoting 210KTAS at FL250. Cessna 400 does 30KTS faster. SR22 does 20KTS faster.
D - Diamond MTOW does not pass the smell test. They are only 150 lbs heavier than C400/SR22 yet have presurization, much larger cabin, more power, etc. Does not compute.

Diamond is a great company, with a great safety record.

But theý CAN'T go beyond very light, 4 place, 4 cylinder planes.

DA42s are AOG everywhere. Performance SUCKS.

D-Jet is a quagmire - their attempt to "leapfrog". Now, all their literature on the DA50 is "leapfrog". I.e. we can't compete with SR22/C400 so we will go higher.

Good luck. I think Diamond has outgrown the management capabilities of its founder.

gadfly said...

Isn't this, 18 August, the beginning of the big party?

gadfly

BricklinNG said...

B95

I do not have a "bubble"; I do not take manufacturers' state ments at face value. Re: pressurized DA50: is there a fundamental difference with pressurizing the C210? The P210 has small windows, one door, and a bit of an empty weight increase over C210, but was/is a viable aircraft.

Shane Price said...

Gad,

Isn't this, 18 August, the beginning of the big party?

Not sure if you are referring to a certain agency beginning an on site audit, but if you are, I'm reliably informed that it was 'postponed'.

Shane

Dave said...

Here's some NMers will wish would have happened:
http://www.bizjournals.com/albuquerque/stories/2002/04/29/editorial2.html

Raburn saying Eclipse could "easily" turn out 1000 units per year:
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/83284_eclipse19.shtml
So how's that working out?

Here's a VC back in 2006 saying why they invested in Eclipse:
http://venturebeat.com/2006/10/12/you-call-that-a-technology-company/
They basically based on a combination based on bashing the aviation industry and based on Vern's crazy price/production rate.

gadfly said...

Yes, Shane. And why am I not surprised?

'Brand new rope, gallows, . . . everything all spruced up, and the quests of honor want to put off the hanging.

gadfly

(Human nature is funny that way.)

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

Fear not Gad, I have heard that FAA was onsite earlier this month, unscheduled. The upcoming audit was, I believe, reported to be a scheduled audit which all PC holders undergo (not a surprise audit).

Dave said...

Here's some clueless bankers that are actually bragging about having Eclipse for a client in a very recent conference call:
We also believe that we are very well positioned to return the levels of reasonable profitability in the quarters ahead and we anticipate that we will finish the year well positioned for much improved results in 2009. The economy in most of our footprint is generally better than the country as a whole as evidenced by lower than average unemployment rates, steady job growth and general economic activity. We are especially encouraged in the Albuquerque area by the expected 5000 or so jobs that will be added over the next several years by companies such as Fidelity, Shot Glass Company, Hewlett Packard, Eclipse Aviation, and others. Our management team is extremely capable and is focused on the tasks at hand but we understand the issues facing us today. We have a plan to work our way through those kinds of challenges and we believe that we will return to solid financial performance within the next few years.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/91449-first-state-bancorporation-q2-2008-earnings-call-transcript?page=-1
These guys must be out of touch. Probably why they're talking about having profitability issues in the first place...too clueless.

forest said...

just_zis,

An experimental from a good company is often more well built than a certified plane. The certified planes build to the lowest standard. Look at Eclipse! Did certification mean anything here (regarding quality/safety). Also, experimentals often have more advanced features. All this has been said before on the blog.

Reputable experimental jet companies are not necessarily marketing to the low-level GA pilot. They know their market will be ex-military or ATP's who want to be on the cutting edge.

CWM is correct. I'd rather put my family in a quality experimental (Epic LT or the Sport-Jet) than an Eclipse or many other certified planes. You might want to contact Excel-jet and have them send you the flight test DVD for the Sport-Jet. These two jets are the future of the VLJ... and hopefully both will be certified in the future.

Shane Price said...

Gadfly,

When I heard that the audit was 'postponed' my first reaction was:-

Why?

My next thought was, frankly, a bit cynical, even by my standards.

There would be nobody left TO audit

I really should get out more often....

Shane

airtaximan said...

"The certified planes build to the lowest standard. Look at Eclipse!"

Our worst fears are coming true...
Truly disruptive, ndeed.

Shameful.

Shane Price said...

Update from ABQ.

As I had suspected, very few people called back to work this week. After the past few weeks, as FlightCentre has reported, where we saw a real burst of activity, things have slowed up.

As in, there is common talk of only 1 aircraft delivery a week going forward.

Part suppliers seem reluctant to deliver more goods, which makes sense given the disturbing news flowing from the company.

Information from the factory floor indicates very lax practices. A snippet from someone who should know:-

I witness, almost daily, squawks or discrepancies, being hidden or left unattended, in the interest of "getting planes out". It seemed that Quality and Safety are secondary concerns.

The sad thing is I get these sorts of messages every few days.

The sadder thing is that I believe him/her. I've just seen too many similar reports, from different parts of the factory, to put this down as a once off.

And yes, before you ask, I have already encouraged the writer to report to the appropriate authorities.

I sincerely hope, literally for safety's sake, that he/she gets the 'correct' response.

Shane

PawnShop said...

At Aviation Week, a brief article regurgitating stuff we already know.

It's worth reading for the reader comment left by Len Hobbs:
"This enterprise has a lass than 50/50 chance of surviving. The entire concept is fundamentally flawed by an 'extremely' limited use aircraft introduced into a turbulent market.
The 'new' management team are working for themselves...with one eye on the development of the product...and the other eye on their own 'exit strategy'...making sure their payroll checks are cashed before cutting the rest for the workforce and the suppliers.
The Eclipse airplane could easily 'devolve' into another Starship debacle.
I have completely lost interest in this sophomoric attempt at a Ponzi scheme...by people who can't spell Italian names."

Well said, Mr. Hobbs...

PawnShop said...

From Russ Niles at AvWeb comes "Russia Is Still Risky Business", positively dripping with skepticism:

With oil money (and God knows what else) fueling a boom in private aviation there, it's only natural that companies would seek opportunity in Russia...

...So, the rooted-in-the-West companies like Cessna, Bombardier, Hawker Beechcraft etc. have been testing the market, finding some success there and expanding in the region to meet demand. Seems reasonable and rational. But there are a few companies whose future seems at least partially dependent on a neighborly exchange of goods and services as if all the nuke talk, the tanks and sunken ships were secondary to the ordained right of making money.

First, there's Epic Aviation. They hope to build their twin-jet Elite in Tblisi, the capital of Georgia. Well real estate prices are probably pretty low right now, especially compared to the costs the might have faced in Calgary, Alta., which, while it might have expensive dirt, has a remarkable absence of Russian tanks in the vicinity.

Then there's Eclipse. A Russian factory appears to be a major part of the plan to make the company profitable but maybe Roel Pieper, et. al. should investigate friction stir welded tanks instead. Seems to be a market...

The most confused aviation company executives on the planet may be at AAI Acquisitions in Denver...
"

Interesting article.

Pay at the first window,
DI

gadfly said...

An "anecdote" from WWII:

The building of Waco Gliders required workers with woodworking skills . . . and who better than "coffin makers". (Careful, now . . . you're getting ahead of me already.)

It was assumed that these folks knew how to put wood together, and they did . . . but didn't understand the tensile stresses of aircraft wings and fuselage. So, many early gliders were put together by highly skilled woodworkers, but serving more "what they already knew", the safe transportation and storage of people in a "compression" environment . . . and for that, the final product served well.

Fortunately, the problem was remedied early in the "glider program", but not before some tragedies.

It would appear that anyone covering over the seemingly minor defects in quality, does not understand the major impact (pardon the pun) of shortcuts in manufacturing aircraft.

gadfly

(Time is of the essence, to carry out a full inspection and remedy the daily tragedy that is building in ABQ.)

PawnShop said...

there is common talk of only 1 aircraft delivery a week going forward

...about half of Cessna's rate on the Mustang:

"Cessna plans to celebrate the 100th unit in August. The company expects to deliver 100 Mustangs this year, about three of every five going to international customers."

As an extra added bonus, every one of Cessna's aircraft are complete & fully functional.

Would you like the combo?
DI

Dave said...

As in, there is common talk of only 1 aircraft delivery a week going forward.

That is one way for Eclipse to increase safety. However, how can those execs sleep at night not fixing the aircraft that are out there? The FPJ has been shown to be weather sensitive, so everyone flown by the public should have FIKI that supposedly makes the aircraft safer. I guess the execs figure if there's a major accident, they'll be BK anyway, so it doesn't matter wha the liability is for not retrofiting the FPJ.

Dave said...

If anything serious comes up in the investigation or there's a serious accident, part of the blame can go Marion "pretty serious ethics questions" Blakey:
http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2007-09-11-Blakey_N.htm
http://www.airventure.org/2006/frijuly28/eclipse.html

WhyTech said...

"The Eclipse airplane could easily 'devolve' into another Starship debacle."

Except that, IIRC, Beech offered to buy back all the Starships, and most, but not all, owners accepted their offer. Dont expect to see Eclipse make such an offer.

Baron95 said...

WhyTech said...
Except that, IIRC, Beech offered to buy back all the Starships, and most, but not all, owners accepted their offer.


I've read that in the press a few times, but I think it is just an urban myth. Beech leased most of the 50-odd Starships built. At the end of the leases (most were 5 years) they simply decided to scrap the plane to decrese support costs of such a small fleet.

There still a few Startships flying in the US. Burt Ruttan, of course, used one as a chase plane for the space fight. Some Startships are even RSVM cerrtified so they can go to FL410. Other than the airframe, all systems are conventional and supported by the mannufacturers. With most Startships being sent to the boneyard, airframe parts should not be a prob.

It is a gorgeous looking plane, no doubt.

Baron95 said...

forest said...
An experimental from a good company is often more well built than a certified plane. The certified planes build to the lowest standard.


Where do you guys come up with this stuff?

So an LT is "more well built" than a PC12 or TBM850? And a SportJet is "more well built" than a Mustang?

And the Cessna Columbia, G650, Phenom 100/300 will all be engineered and built to the "lowest standard".

S$@#!!! I'll call the Textron and General Dynamics CEOs right now and tell them that they need to fire the management team at Cessna and Gulfstream because they can't build their planes as well as kit plane builders.

Of course, knowing that EAA experimental planes have a fatal accident rate that is 4 to 6 times higher than certified planes, may make them laugh at my ass.

Geez. The stuff one reads here.

airtaximan said...

BAron,

of course you are correct, BUT...

Having eclipse set the standard for CERTIFIED aircraft actually begs the question:

"Would I be better off building my own..."

How sad is that?

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

Baron I will go on the record right now and say based on what I have seen I would ride in an LT and would allow my family to do so.

I will not say the same about the Eclipse 500.

Make of that what you will.

ColdWetMackarelofReality said...

Just adding, I have flown the LT, and seen it being built in numbers. I have seen the tooling, the molds, the care with which the composite parts are fabbed.

I have seen the EEA-500 up close, examined the skin fits, doors, paint, etc., and peaked inside and seen an instrument panel riddled with INOP placards. I have not flown the EA-500 (and will not) but I have read the pilot reports, reports on training, and everything else in the public record.

WhyTech said...

"And the Cessna Columbia, G650, Phenom 100/300 will all be engineered and built to the "lowest standard"."

I think that you must be confusing "Columbia" with "Columbus."

gadfly said...

It’s human nature, I guess, to shift the discussion to others who may be more or less “guilty” of moral/technical failures in any given subject, but the main purpose of this blog is Eclipse Aviation and the attempted introduction of the E500.

Now, that’s a simple enough subject.

All the others may, or may not, succeed . . . but for the present discussion, none of that really matters. The subject is, simply, Eclipse Aviation . . . and the things that it has claimed, promised, failed to achieve, etc., etc., etc.!

Soon, Eclipse may go “belly up” (using a tame expression) . . . and soon, someone may pay with their very life, because of the failures of this company to fulfill their moral obligation.

Companies come and go . . . fortunes are sometimes won, and often lost . . . no big deal . . . many of us have been through that mill . . . and only the founder suffers loss. But in the case of providing (or “claiming” to provide) a safe and efficient means of transportation, we bring many others into the equation . . . and in the case of “Eclipse”, they are in a most precarious position. And they deserve all the criticism that may be generated, when they have clearly violated basic ethics in almost every discipline connected with aircraft, general aviation, and just basic business ethics.

It behooves us to make sure that all of those who have been involved, for selfish gain, be brought into the bright light of public display that each and every one of them deserve.

This includes not only those who have obviously distorted the truth, but the many in political positions who have sought to gain by promoting this enterprise.

It didn’t take much intelligence nor integrity to see early one, what was happening. So, in my opinion, there is no excuse for the things that are happening, today.

The sooner this fiasco is brought to an end, the better for all concerned. Should I predict that all too soon, some innocent person, or persons, is going to pay an ultimate price? The sooner this thing ends, the safer for those who may suffer for things far beyond their control.

Enough! . . . already. What is it going to take, to make people face up to what is really going on?

gadfly

(A weary little bug . . . wondering when it will end, and how many people will be hurt before people in authority step up to the plate and fulfill their moral obligations.)

Baron95 said...

CW said ... based on what I have seen I would ride in an LT and would allow my family to do so.

I will not say the same about the Eclipse 500.


I have no quarrels with that. Based on your postings in this Blog, I believe you have very sound aircraft knowledge and that you did do good due dilligence on the LT.

As in everything in life, there is the good, the bad, and the in between.

There are great and safety-minded GA certified planes/companies (Gulfstream setting the gold standard in my view). There are questionable ones (Eclipse looks like one). Some in between (Piper with mixed records for example).

Same for Experimental kit building companies. LT may be the gold standard. Vans maybe run of the mill. Some are just horrible.

To read someone say that certified planes/companies are less safe than experimental kits as a categuory and that they all build to lowest standards is just ridiculous, to put it mildly.

And I said this before. The FAA certified stamp, means nothing to me. The Gulfstream or Diamond or Cessna or LT (thursting CW for now) stamp counts much more.

Baron95 said...

To add to the last comment, even the OEM stamp is not a lasting thrust either. Companies go through stages. Cessna has put out crap in the past. Someone asked here about the P210. The first version of that plane was downright unsafe, unreliable, basically crap (IMHO). The P210R was a decent machine.

Baron95 said...

WhyTech said...
I think that you must be confusing "Columbia" with "Columbus."


Yes, that one. Thanks for the correction. It is still beyond me why some people choose to dilute their brand.

Look at BMW, Mercedes, Audi, Gulfstream.

Everyone knows what a 535 is or a 750 or C300. No need to even mention the brand. A GII, GIV, GV were instantly known. I just watchd a movie today and they kept using GV, even though they cnanged the model number.

On the other hand, Cessna chose to dilute the Citation brand. What was wrong with Citation I, Citation II, Citation X. Now thy have to come up with names for every model. Columbus. Encore. Excel. What the heck is an Excel? A Hundai or a Citation?

Ford/Chevy/Chrysler having to come up with all these names Traverse, Equinox. WTF!!!???!!!!

And we have the Audi A4, A6, A8 - simple. Keep the brand.

It is beyond me why people don't value their own brands.

fred said...

#It is beyond me why people don't value their own brands.#

may be because it is up to anyone to do what he/she wants ...

the rest is "noise" to keep the confusion called Marketing ...!

but it start by respecting each other wishes ...
if you want to walk nude in the street , it is your problem !

if i don't want to be disturbed , just have to look somewhere else !

in the case of Fpj : the state (GOVt) is supposed to be there to prevent "gullible enough" to put themselves at risks ...

it seems it didn't work this time ...!

so on such , i tend to agree with Gad = get a new rope ...!

fred said...

D.I. :

your link is very good (on russia) !

it is a perfect point on journalistic work ...

i agree quite much with the fact that when (note: i do not write "if" but when) US/RU relation will be even sourer , it is going to be quite difficult to conduct transnational-business between the two ...

nonetheless , journalists here are exactly playing the same partition than some others with Fpj ...

if you take what has been shown and said on both side , it is amazingly simple to see propaganda practices done ...

as on CNN i have seen a report stating the Tbilissi airport was bombed and destroyed , while a few hours later , the french president arrived on this very same airport without any difficulties , camera on spot to film the event didn't show any damages ... (ok , may be they shot with the "good angle" ...!)

there is a big relation with Fpj as some are asked (pushed , manipulated ,etc...) to have a opinion on something they don't know ...

the same as about the European trip onboard Fpj with ridiculous numbers

or lately a comment posted in french by a chap having the name Depositor825 ...

with my natural suspicion about anything , the first thing i see is 825 ...

as it would be something that exist ! depositor 300 or even 400 = ok , but 825 ??? (underlining the huge number , therefor the success ...)

you see , lots of "noises" ... sometime it makes it difficult to see "real reality" and "supposed reality"

as for Georgia (not the US state , the other) one could easily wonder why in a country where more than 50% of roads are not proper roads and where in some parts there is no electricity 24 hours a day ... why this tiny country ranks in the top five of military spending countries ...

you see : many illusions , few realities !!

airtaximan said...

On Branding and names:

I hear Eclipse Aviation is naming the E500... the Fiasco.

Thanks Gad...

Black Tulip said...

Is anyone planning to attend the Eclipse fly-in in Sunriver, Oregon from September 11 to 14th? According to the website invitation, the Faithful are invited as well as the Great Unwashed.

airsafetyman said...

many manufacturers have had sucess with consistent namimg of their airplanes or engines. Rolls-Royce names their turbine engines after rivers: The Trent, Dart, Nene, Saphire, ect. Lockheed usually uses star names: Orion, Vega, Hercules, Galaxy, Constellation. Beech had the snobby Duke, Baron, Queen Air and Kind Air. DeHavilland used otherworldy names: Ghost, Goblin, Vampire. The best was the supernatural names that McDonnell used: Banshee, Demon, Voodoo, Phantom. Cessna is handicapped because Citation is usually thought of as either a famous racehorse, or a traffic ticket. Where do you go from there?

Anonymous said...

Rumor just became fact:

http://www.rttnews.com/Content/QuickFacts.aspx?Node=B1&Id=688821%20&Category=Quick%20Facts

Albany International Corp. (AIN: News, Chart, Quote ) announced that Eclipse Aviation, a significant customer of Albany Engineered Composites or AEC, indicated its substantial reduction in production of the Eclipse 500 jet, and planned purchases of components from AEC and other suppliers, for the remainder of 2008 and the first half of 2009.

It sucks to be an Eclipse vendor, position holder, owner, or employee right now!

Dave said...

Eclipse promises its production rate will go up...eventually:
Albany International Corp. (NYSE:AIN) reported today that Eclipse Aviation, a significant customer of Albany Engineered Composites (AEC), has indicated that it was substantially reducing production of the Eclipse 500 jet, and planned purchases of components from AEC and other suppliers, for the remainder of 2008 and the first half of 2009. Based on information provided to date by Eclipse, purchases of AEC components are thereafter expected to return to and then exceed previous levels.

Sales to Eclipse have accounted for a significant portion of AEC’s 2008 revenues, as well as a significant portion of production at AEC’s facility in Boerne, Texas.

The Company has earlier indicated that the near-term annual sales growth potential of AEC was approximately 35 percent, and that AEC had reached break-even profitability at the end of the second quarter of 2008. While the Company expects that aggregate revenues for 2008 will still exceed 2007 revenues by 35 percent or more, lower sales to Eclipse will reduce Q3 and Q4 sales growth significantly. Profitability of AEC, which had become positive at the end of Q2 2008, is now expected to fall below break-even and remain below break-even until Q1 or Q2 2009.

http://www.businesswire.com/portal/site/google/?ndmViewId=news_view&newsId=20080819005647&newsLang=en

This shows the dangers of putting all/most of your eggs in one basket. Eclipse all the way around seemed to do that - both as a buyer as well as a seller. Generally speaking (there are of course exceptions) a company shouldn't have a single client that represents more than 10% of the total business. For Eclipse as a seller this can most obviously be seen with the DayJet orders representing around 50% of the business.

It should be interesting to see Eclipse's explanation for what they plan to do. Going by this it appears they plan on ramping down until Q3 2009. However, I can't see that employees or suppliers would want to continually put up with the downsizing/slowdowns/etc that happen whenever Eclipse is between rounds of cash infusions and not knowing if Eclipse simply wont go out of business should a cash infusion not come. Eclipse whines about their suppliers, but Eclipse isn't a good customer and you can't expect employees to go through a recurring melodrama.

Shane Price said...

From www.businesswire.com

"Albany International Corp. (NYSE:AIN) reported today that Eclipse Aviation, a significant customer of Albany Engineered Composites (AEC), has indicated that it was substantially reducing production of the Eclipse 500 jet, and planned purchases of components from AEC and other suppliers, for the remainder of 2008 and the first half of 2009. Based on information provided to date by Eclipse, purchases of AEC components are thereafter expected to return to and then exceed previous levels."

Hmmm...

Shane

fred said...

dave :

#For Eclipse as a seller this can most obviously be seen with the DayJet orders representing around 50% of the business. #

50% ??

i think you're kind on this one ! ;-)


Monsieur Shane ::

hmmm ? yes ! HUMM HUMM !! ;-))

smell like going back to future ...

soon , the dinosaur who have no idea of the potential of E500 will vanish , the skies are going to be darkened , bla bla bla ...!

Dave said...

So let me see if I get this straight. Vern got fired based on getting the new round of funding, but the new round of funding hasn't actually arrived yet and per Eclipse's notoriously inaccurate projections, Eclipse expects to get it by the end of the year. Now based on what AIN said, Eclipse doesn't expect things to get back going with suppliers until about a year from now.

By the way I also want to point out that journalists have raised the issue of the manner and timing of Vern's departure being strange:
Meanwhile, news of the abrupt departure of founder and former CEO Vern Raburn rippled through the show with most industry people we talked with puzzled over the timing and process of his removal (at Oshkosh, where companies normally try to portray themselves in the best possible light.)
http://www.avweb.com/news/airventure/NewEclipseCEOAddressingRefundConcerns_198427-1.html
Shane wasn't alone in pointing out how odd this was to do from a PR standpoint.

It should be interesting to see what Eclipse has to say after its self-imposed media exile going quiet after 10 years being a media ham. I don't think Eclipse has even confirmed that Vern is totally gone despite all the press coverage of Vern's email.

Dave said...

Looking further
ahead, Russian Minister of Industry and Energy Victor Khristenko
in the spring of 2007 announced plans to use hydrogen-fueled
buses at the 2014 Olympic Games in Sochi. Holland’s European
Technology and Investment Research Center (ETIRC) is going to
provide Sochi with conversion technologies for gasoline and diesel
oil buses to be powered by hydrogen. ETIRC also has plans for
hydrogen fuel projects in the Irkutsk Region, whose administration
signed an investment agreement with the Dutch company in
October 2007 to launch coal-to-fuel projects in the near future.

http://www.globalaffairs.ru/docs/2008_english3.pdf

Shane Price said...

Dave,

I don't think Eclipse has even confirmed that Vern is totally gone despite all the press coverage of Vern's email.

Eclipse might not, but Vern sure has!

To be fair, I also have an eyewitness report of his office being cleared out.

If he were to reappear I suspect it would be after BK, as a some sort of figurehead for a customer group.

Shane

Dave said...

Eclipse deceptively including its mothballed fleet:
Florida-based DayJet, in fact, is rapidly growing as it develops its niche connecting regions both within the state and among southeastern states. In 2007, DayJet had five aircraft and operated in five markets in Florida. Ten months later, in August 2008, DayJet has expanded to 28 aircraft serving 61 markets in seven states.
http://teachamerica.com/SASHTO/SASHTO2008sessionhighlights.pdf

Here was an analyst who wasn't too quick to jump the gun on DayJet:
We need to watch the new startup air taxis in 2007 and into 2008to see if there is anything of substance there. Point to Point (South Dakota) died, DayJet(Florida) was launched, Pogo (North East) back into the market seeking an IPO.
http://www.walshaviation.com/Speedbus07-11.pdf
He has Hampson for a client. I wonder if they didn't listen to him or if they went to him after they got burned by Eclipse.

Dave said...

Eclipse might not, but Vern sure has!
To be fair, I also have an eyewitness report of his office being cleared out.


I was saying this in regards to Eclipse's media blackout. We all know he's gone, just Eclipse wont even state the obvious that has already been confirmed by multiple sources. Eclipse can't just suddenly go quiet after spending a decade chasing the media.

Dave said...

Is this what Roel is hoping for?:
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5hp4GRv7SDrxnR3S4wcaPhlplt3FwD92LEDL80
General Dynamics buys Jet Aviation Management.

TBMs_R_Us said...

Yea, no doubt Roel has been "shopping" Eclipse. But, as the saying goes, you can't sell your problems.

airtaximan said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
x said...

Flat Panel maker, ISSC, shares off 25% today.

julius said...

Dave,
look at the ECLIPSE press release of Jul 28, 2008:

Vern will continue to provide counsel to RP and will be with ETIRC aviation. (short version)

Perhaps RP can live without VR's advices...

It's not the business of EAC to check if VR is with ETIRC aviation!

Maybe VR is still on the payroll - for some time. De jure he might have an home office and "work".
But is that important ...

After cutting all ties to EAC is VR still flying EA500? What about Epic - a little Victory for the soul?

julius

airtaximan said...

Dave:
riddle me this...

1- we're obtaining financing to get us to cash positive, by year end

2- you cannot have your refunds until then

3- we're cutting deliveries by a wide margin

So, if I understand this correctly, new financing IS GOING TO PAY OFF THE REFUNDS?

*** if they are drastically cutting production, to the point where suppliers won't even B/E in their businesses (probably subsidized with at least some other than EAC "profitable" income), how is EAC going to get to profitablity and pay off refunds?

I think we all know the answer...

(I was being sarcastic with the conclusion "payng back refunds..." BTW)

x said...

ISSC, AvioNG provider, will host Conference Call Thursday AM to discuss its "business outlook"

Phone: 888-562-3654. The conference ID# is 61178586. The call will also be carried live on Investor Relations page of the Company web site at www.innovative-ss.com

x said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Dave said...

ISSC downgraded due to Eclipse. Now that's disruptive!:
Boenning & Scattergood downgrades Innovative Solutions & Support, Inc. (Nasdaq: ISSC) from Market Perform to Market Underperform witha $4 price target.

The firm said, "Earlier today we learned that Eclipse Aviation was substantially reducing production of it Eclipse 500 jet for the remainder of 2008 and the first half of 2009. We believe this production cut will weigh heavily on the results of IS&S and will likely prevent the company from meeting its F08 revenue guidance of $34m. In addition we believe the company's F09 revenue streams will likely be at risk and suspect the company will struggle to maintain a positive ramp in its quarterly revenues in F09."

http://www.streetinsider.com/Downgrades/Boenning+&+Scattergood+Downgrades+Innovative+Solutions+&+Support+(ISSC)+to+Market+Underperform/3926057.html

Shadow said...

If a rising tide lifts all boats, then does a sinking ship drag down its suppliers/partners? I think we're witnessing the answer as I type this.

Dave said...

I stand corrected. There isn't a total Eclipse press blackout. Eclipse wont confirm that the Vernator has been completely terminated, but Eclipse still wants the press to know that it has 2300 orders:
Eclipse spokeswoman Alana McCarraher said no decision had been made on whether to cut production of the Eclipse 500. "We're still examining our entire production process," she said. She said Eclipse still has 2,300 orders for the Eclipse 500; it has delivered 245.

Also with this I bet they're lying through their teeth on this...saying stick with us and we'll buy even more than before:
Albany said lower sales to Eclipse would cause AEC to lose money until the first or second quarter of 2009. It said Eclipse has told it to expect purchases of AEC components to exceed previous levels after the second half of 2009.
http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/apwire/a14868a93af4d11c7e39712667774edc.htm

Here's some more details here about Eclipse:
http://blogs.timesunion.com/business/?p=4513
Russia and Europe are supposedly going to be a "huge" source for orders. I guess now that DayJet isn't going anywhere, Eclipse is looking for some other shell to prop up to make a ridiculous order that will never happen in order to keep the illusion alive and be harder to trace than DayJet.

Dave said...

DayJet is moving away from the per-seat business client-only:
http://newsletter.dayjet.com/Sidebars.9.20.lasso
They've now offering a charter service for 200 destinations and they say in the future they'll fly on the weekends, allow kids and pets plus have space for golf clubs. To me this makes much more sense for them to actually get business...offering a charter service over a wide area as well as offering options that would allow for non-business travelers.

DayJet might be able to make it as a niche business if they dump their original business plan. I don't see them making a lot of money, but they might at least be able to avoid massive red ink like Eclipse has. I just wish DayJet/Eclipse would toss out the 1300 orders illusion as it makes Ed look like he's aiding and abetting Eclipse's shenanigans.

forest said...

Baron,

Of course, top notch companies produce good certified planes. But I still think a top tier experimental from a reputable company can be as well built as a certified. And we all know that a good experimental is more well built than E500 or Adam, and probably a few others.

My point ... which I guess wasn't clear ... was a comparison of the E500 (or E400) to a well built experimental.

And yes, certified companies can (and some do) built to the lowest standard. The FARs define a standard which aircraft certify against. These represent the minimum standard (to meet certification). Often companies build to these standards and no more. Of course, some certified standards go beyond the minimum ... some don't.

I've seen at least two experimentals that are definitely building above the minimum standards (which certified planes adhere to) .... when they don't have to.

When someone started trashing experimentals here; I just wanted to bring some balance to the discussion. Experimentals can be very well built (and high performance, innovative aircraft). And yes, there are several real scummy experimental companies (I've dealt with a few).

The highest selling company, Cirrus, started as an experimental, then went on to certification. Baron, you often state that we need to support companies which take large risk, try innovative technology, etc. The innovations come from top notch experimental aircraft... and later filter to certified versions. I support the innovative spirit of the experimental aircraft companies. There are a few who have a passion for performance and innovation and want to carry on the great traditions of GA. Unfortunately, most are now in it to just make a quick buck.

This is a silly discussion... sorry for my part in it ... my apologies. [Baron, I have seen the light ... I bow to your wisdom in all things aviation ... oh God of everything with wings.]

If we don't know yet that the critical issue is examining the veracity of the people running the company (and their experience in aviation) then we haven't learned anything on this blog.

airtaximan said...

funny to see them promoting new "non-stop" service, per-palne service, service to airports you want to go to, weekend service, one-way pricing, etc...

its part 135 charter!!! hooray -just in a really small plane for more than a similar prop by a large margin, and maybe a few dollars less than light jet charter, but not enough to make a real difference.

to me, this is pretty sad - it basically reinforces the idea that they had no clue what they were doing, even after spending $millions on a computer model, ant farmers... etc... for many, many years.

Maybe the aviation industry just isn't for computer guys?

Dave said...

to me, this is pretty sad - it basically reinforces the idea that they had no clue what they were doing, even after spending $millions on a computer model, ant farmers... etc... for many, many years.

It's hard to know what can be attributed incompetence versus what DayJet knew just lied about. Ed does have a history of burying scams in technobabble and his SCO Group scam sounded very familiar to DayJet complete with the teams of analysts, not being able to provide proof (I'll never forget Ed talking about how a potential investor bailed when Ed couldn't easily explain how DayJet would be profitable), etc. Ed and Vern seemed to have massive egos and much of DayJet seemed to be setup with no consideration of the customer, so I just don't know.

Maybe the aviation industry just isn't for computer guys?

I think it is the arrogance that is the problem and the get-rich-quick mentality, not the industry background. I'm a "computer guy", but I saw forthcoming problems with both DayJet and Eclipse way before we got to where we are now.

Baron95 said...

Forest said ... I support the innovative spirit of the experimental aircraft companies. There are a few who have a passion for performance and innovation and want to carry on the great traditions of GA.

On that we can agree. I strongly support innovation and even the unsuccessful attempts at innovation from both experimental (e.g. Lancair, Epic) as well as certified designers.

And the key is the company and the designer behind the plane. Not the fact that it is military, civilian experimental or civilian certified.

I also strongly believe in companies that offer straight and transparent communications. So long as the consumer/pilot is well informed on the design, I am cool with anyone producing and selling almost anything.

WhyTech said...

"Effective 18 August 2008, Grob Aerospace GmbH in Germany has been forced to file for insolvency.

This unfortunate situation has arisen as a consequence of recent delays in the spn program, resulting in the increased requirement for cash to see the program through to certification"

Its an epidemic!

PawnShop said...

( DayJet is ) now offering a charter service for 200 destinations and they say in the future they'll fly on the weekends, allow kids and pets plus have space for golf clubs.

Here's your chance, Baron95 - give 'em a call and suggest they set up shop at MVY. I'm not joking ( which is sayin' something - I'm never not joking ).

DayJet might be able to make it as a niche business if they dump their original business plan.

But ... but ... think of the ant farmers! They have house payments too...

Pay at the first window,
DI

Dave said...

But ... but ... think of the ant farmers! They have house payments too...

Ya see DayJet and Eclipse are disruptive...disruptive on their suppliers and employees. Just ask AIN and ISSC how disruptive Eclipse is!

Dave said...

And I thought the FPJ was supposed to have a small carbon footprint:
http://www.ainonline.com/news/single-news-page/article/pwc-and-eclipse-probing-pw610f-carbon-concern/

The aviation media repeating about Eclipse's suppliers talking about Eclipse's plans:
http://www.ainonline.com/news/single-news-page/article/eclipse-aviation-goes-quiet-raburn-severs-all-ties/

twinpilot said...

Baron95 and all,

Please excuse this off Eclipse topic response to Baron’s drive by shots at the Aerostar.

Baron95,
You seem to be fairly knowledgeable and therefore I am surprised you make such statements as: “The plane, IIRC, had NO STALL WARNING system at all…” Just Google search 14 CFR 25.207 and you will see that an FAA certified airplane requires stall warning. (a) There must be a clear and distinctive stall warning, with the flaps and landing gear in any normal position, in straight and turning flight. (b) The stall warning may be furnished either through the inherent aerodynamic qualities of the airplane or by a device that will give clearly distinguishable indications under expected conditions of flight. The Aerostar’s stall warning is furnished through the inherent aerodynamic qualities of the airplane. No artificial system is required.

You said, “The ingres/egress to the plane is quirky - basically through the pilot's seat.”
I think it’s very simple and convenient. You just, slide the seat forward of the door for the copilot and passengers, then return the seat to it’s position, step up, sit down and close the door. Of course if you have no passengers, just step up, sit down and close the door. Now with the Baron, you load the passengers, the airplane squats down like a setter, then you find the step, climb uphill on the wing, NOT THE FLAP, up the nonskid to the forward door, staying off the painted wing surface, plop into the co-pilot’s seat, scoot over to the left, invite the co-pilot to follow the same procedure, watch out for the flap, then explain how to close the door or lean over and wrestle with it yourself. Then simply start the engines, power up and hit the brakes so the nose strut will compress so you can steer the airplane. Some may consider this quirky, I’d call it a little inconvenient but to each his own.

You said the fuel system was quirky. Well, there was an AD note in about 1977 that called for a replacement of the fuel caps and the single gage and selector switch was replaced with a gage for each tank. The cap change was necessary but the gage was added in lieu of pilot education. Since then (about 31 years now) there have been no fuel system issues with the airplane. I do tend to remember something about Barons flaming out after turning taxis to takeoff with less than one-quarter tank or something like that, but that was mostly a pilot education issue as well. AD’s aren’t necessarily a bad thing as long as they fix problem components and educate pilots. Normal procedure regarding the Aerostar fuel management is to fill the tanks, turn on the fuel, fly to your destination and refuel. If under normal circumstances, you have a total electrical failure the fuel system doesn’t know or care.

Regarding the door, just close it properly and it won’t come open. If you turn the handle it can never pop open but if you forget, it is not an issue if you just fly the airplane. Also as the pilot, you are in complete control of the door, so if it is important to you just do it right. If you forget to put the gear down it will get pretty noisy as well. It’s all about proper routines and checklists.

The pressurized Aerostars with the optional propellers are about the same noise level as a 421, which most consider quiet. It might also be a moot point with the advent of noise canceling headsets.

I agree the Aerostar doesn’t have the same dihedral as the Baron, Bonanza, King Air or some jets. The Aerostar wing has 2 degrees of dihedral, which helps eliminate that dutch roll tendency some airplanes are famous for. Pilots and passengers love the ride in turbulence.

For a turboprop version, you would just put a couple of nacelle tanks behind the engine like the Cheyenne or King Air. You could easily get an extra 80 gallons on board.

Regarding a Jet, I agree the Aerostar Jet would be a derivative of the existing airplane. A new type certificate would be required even for a retrofit. However, I do believe about 90% of the airframe parts and systems could be used as is or with very few changes. I am talking about the landing gear, flight controls and system, hydraulic system, fuselage design, etc. Stretching the fuselage is easy, (Ted Smith did it and flew the airplane in 1976) and solves the CG issues with aft mounted engines. For retrofit, there is the option of inboard wing tanks or tip tanks. For a new airplane, the wing thickness ratio could be increased to hold more fuel and a new wing built for a lot less than the cost of designing a whole new airplane. Starting with the existing design, I think you could save about a Billion Dollars give or take Fifty Million.

It always amazes me that people believe a “new airplane” will somehow be better than any existing design. The Aerostar was one of those airplanes designed by a genius with 40 years of aircraft design experience. Forty years later it is still the world’s fastest civilian reciprocating twin. Had Eclipse started with this airplane and developed a derivative they would have been done about 8 years ago with a much better airplane.

Baron95 said...

dave I said ... Here's your chance, Baron95 - give 'em a call and suggest they set up shop at MVY.

Too late dave. Lineair has that market cornered and summer is almost over. Plus, I know Ed. His ants would not like the New England winter. They need to switch to flying VIPs for Foxwoods in the winter months and those always bring a few pieces of equipment that not always fit on the E500 (namely golf clubs and ladies with breast implants that require their own FAA Supplemental Type Certificate).

Thanks for keeping an eye out for my beloved mission, though. ;)

Dave said...

I ran across this in the SEC filings:
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1397516/000119312507151093/dex1018.htm
However, searching S/N 227 shows it being registered to Eclipse:
http://registry.faa.gov/aircraftinquiry/nnumsql.asp?NNumbertxt=654FC

Did REX somehow return the aircraft to Eclipse, did SNs change or was it something else?

Dave said...

Why ISSC crashed. Here's what was said in the previous ISSC conference call and it all goes back to what Vern himself said:
The shipments of the aircraft as announced by Vern Raburn, CEO of Eclipse Aviation, are 402 jets in calendar year 2007, approximately 1,000 jets in calendar year 2008 and market demand driven in 2009 and beyond...

I only repeated - and again this is not in my control, I repeated Vern Raburn’s comments which called out 402 as his plan to ship aircraft; 402 this calendar year and 1,000 next calendar year and market demand subsequent years.

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/836690/000110465907017367/a07-7584_1ex99d1.htm

Dave said...

News from Karen about congressional hearings! I haven't read it yet, just wanted to post the link as soon as I saw it:
http://www.charterx.com/resources/article.aspx?id=3471

airtaximan said...

...Had Eclipse started with this airplane and developed a derivative they would have been done about 8 years ago with a much better airplane....

BUT, they would be waiting for the avionics for say another 110 years...

Aerostar - coll enough plane for me to know what they guy was referring to... need I say more?

And, yes - why reinvent, unless there's real progress. I think jad EAC kep their eye on the ball (low cost/simple plane for high utilization charter use) they probably could have done it. I'm not joking.

Same for Dayjet, BYW.

Both were way off.

Dave said...

Committee spokesperson Jim Berard said that both the IG's office and oversight and investigations unit of the committee "have gathered enough credible evidence to warrant a hearing."

Anonymous said...

Dave said...

ISSC downgraded due to Eclipse. Now that's disruptive!:
Boenning & Scattergood downgrades Innovative Solutions & Support, Inc. (Nasdaq: ISSC) from Market Perform to Market Underperform witha $4 price target.


The funny thing is that two weeks ago, the same analyst "upgraded" ISSC to "market perform". Talk about not seeing the forest for the trees! These analyst don't know squat.

Baron95 said...

twinpilot said...
Please excuse this off Eclipse topic response to Baron’s drive by shots at the Aerostar.


Twinpilot - my deepest apologies, if you felt like I was taking pot shots at the Aerostar. I was simply pointing out that the airplane has some unconventional (a.k.a quirky) systems and that the modification to a jet would be tough. By quirky I never intended to mean "bad".

I thought I did say that I liked the Aerostar. In fact the Baron won over the Aerostar for a simple reason. I can't stand Lycoming TIO-540s - the SFC on those engines are attrocious. Up to 25% worse than the Continentals if you operate LOP.

So let me say it again. I LIKE Aerostars. I agree with you that it is TOTALLY AMAZING that a plane designed 40 years ago beat the pants of the A500 (same power as an Aerostar/Superstar 700) by some 80KTS or 40%!!!!!! That was a plane designed without computers or simulations, little wind tunnel and completely beats the crap out of the latest Twin dedigned in the 21st century (the A500) in every respect payload, range, ROC, SEROC, cruise, and even the cabin is a bit nicer.

I'd love to see Aerostars back in production. I'd start with a TSIO-550 FADEC reengining.

Then look into the GE Walter low cost turboprop.

Then perhaps, way down the like look at a fan jet design. Perhaps a SEJ design a la Piper Jet, after watching how that goes.

Once again. My aopologies, if my pointing out the Aerostar "differences" came accross as dissing the plane.

Not my intention. I would dare any designer to build a 700HP piston twin that can outperform Ted Smith's design - go ahead - use all the computing power in the world. Try it.

airtaximan said...

Dave, call me crazy... but I don't think EAC is going to be making planes much longer. I also think they already know this... but that's just me...

gadfly said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
gadfly said...

The comment, “allow kids and pets, plus have space for golf clubs” caught my eye.
And I thought to myself, “Has it really come to that?” And you know what? . . . It has really come to “that”!

The “gadfly” has eighteen, going on nineteen grand kids . . . that’s a long list of little ones to pray for . . . plus their parents. And there are people “out there” that sell planes at any price . . . let’s change that to “any cost” . . . if it makes a buck, who cares if it’s an unfinished aircraft . . . just so long as some naive individual with enough money is gullible enough to either buy the thing, or hire it for taxi service. All this, without including in the prospectus the possible/probable cost to families/lives.

Now that, to me, is not bordering on criminal . . . it is criminal!

Ever since I was a kid, watching my Grandpa and Daddy invent and machine various devices (and I have mentioned before that every one who reads this blog has flown safely because of the work of those two men), there was always the underlying thought that each and every one of these devices may spell the difference between life and death . . . and whether or not they made a profit, was really of minor import. Fortunately, for those to whom the patents were licensed, not just millions, but billions of dollars were brought in to the owners of the company.

Sure, I could wish that my Mother, a widow at 39 could have reaped the benefits of those inventions . . . but she didn’t. But to this day, I can go into the cockpit of virtually any US made commercial aircraft (and many military aircraft), look at the inertial restraint system . . . and consider the flight control devices buried deep in the wings and fuselage, knowing that millions of people traveled and returned to their families, safe, because of the genius and basic philosophies of my own Father and Grandfather.

On that basis, and my own work in aircraft, and in surgery, I can sleep at night, knowing that for three . . . and now four generations, we have placed a higher value on human life than the cheap level that I observe a few miles from here.

If this sounds boastful . . . so be it. The bottom line is to illustrate a point from real life. Unless this “fiasco” soon comes to an end, it will forever taint the safety record of general aviation, and the basic priorities that motivate others to build better and safer aircraft.

gadfly

(Yeh . . . I’m an “old man”, using my time to say it like I see it. ‘Still working, by the way, every day!)

Formerly known as "Just zis guy, you know?" said...

I'm afraid I can't on Piper's plans to certify to FL350.

In general I would say, I wouldn't plan on trying to do that.

PawnShop said...

This week's AWST "double issue" grants three mentions to the Greater Albuquerque Incomplete Aircraft Works.

Page 25's "Profit Plan" is just the twenty-fifth repeat of the "Vern's not here" press release.

Page 85's "Inside Business Aviation" discusses the "continuing challenges" ( my quotes, not theirs ). I hadn't previously noticed this: "Mike McConnell, VP sales & marketing, declined to ID the cause of the production shortfall, but he did say that the company needs to reduce its expenses to align with lower income from aircraft deliveries".

They saved ( ? ) the best for first in a reader's letter titled "How A Dream Headed South". The reader, from the ironically named location of Broken Arrow, Oklahoma, dresses down the FPJ effort in language so polite that I could never dream of communicating so effectively. He concludes with:
Raburn's legacy will certainly be discussed and documented for years to come, in terms of "don't let this happen to you."

( It's a beautiful day. Yet here I am, pimping magazines for McGraw-Hill. Where did I go wrong? )

DI

Formerly known as "Just zis guy, you know?" said...

"Of course, knowing that EAA experimental planes have a fatal accident rate that is 4 to 6 times higher than certified planes, may make them laugh at my ass.

Geez. The stuff one reads here."


The voice of reason.

Baron95 said...

On other news.... a current production car was just auctioned today at Monterey, CA for more than the price of a Citation Mustang!!!! What is the world coming to?

Monterey 2008: First Bugatti Veyron 16.4 Grand Sport auctioned for $3.19 million

gadfly said...

DI

You're doing a good service. Keep it honest and complete, and don't be intimidated.

gadfly

Black Tulip said...

Shane,

Having testified before Congress a couple of times (under happier circumstances), I suggest you start getting your papers in order and travel plans set. You'll need to submit a written copy of your testimony in advance plus have an abbreviated verbal statement.

We know that you will represent the blog and your Faire Isle well.

Shane Price said...

New post up.

Too much happening around here, so sorry if I've cut short what looks like a really active chat.

Shane

twinpilot said...

Baron95,
I accept your apology, but I am not buying the 25% better sfc. I think sfc is about .40 for the Continental and .42 for the Lycoming, and that's all theoretical. I soured on the Continentals 30 years when they were cracking cases on engines, came out with generation 2 cases which cracked in different places, then gen 3 which cracked in other places but not where those old gen 2 cases cracked, then went to gen 4 cases and I lost interest.

I am sure that is all old news now and I think Continental did the right thing bringing all manufacturing in house where quality control could be monitored more closely. I am still not convinced I need a FADEC to control the engines that I have no trouble controlling now. Just one more thing to go wrong and leaves me with less flexibility.

Regarding the single engine jet concept, I know it is popular, efficient etc. however I think the first time one sucks in a large bird on departure and the engine flames out, people are going to rethink just how safe they are. I was once surprised to hear an engine manufacturer describe a successful bird strike test as one where the drive shaft between the turbine wheel and the fan broke. I asked how that could be described as successful since the engine quit, and was informed that it isn't required to keep running, it's just not supposed to fly apart. Now with a single engine turboprop a bird ingestion is not nearly that big a deal, but I think it is a really big deal on a single jet.

PawnShop said...

OOOH! Congressional hearings!!

Although certain people are invited to the hearing, Berard explained that the committee has the power to subpoena those who refuse invitations.

You heard it here first! Subpoenas. The good kind - HA!

I can see it now...
The committee's chief weapon is surprise ... surprise and fear. Its two weapons are fear and surprise ... and ruthless efficiency. Er, its three weapons are fear, surprise, and ruthless efficiency ... and an almost fanatical devotion to the Pope. It's FOUR ...no... Amongst its weapons...

Vern being poked with the Soft Cushions ... condemned to the Comfy Chair ... and if none of that works, being tied to the rack!

It's about time...

Would you like to know the charges?
IANAL

Formerly known as "Just zis guy, you know?" said...

For what it's worth, to those defending the LT and saying it's great because they've seen the factory -- 49% of the aircraft isn't made in the factory (well, legally). That means that someone who DOESN'T build aircraft for a living makes it. That's who I don't trust, not the guy making the moulds. Would you buy one on the used market? Really?

Also, I don't trust the guys doing the systems work because they don't tend to meet FARs, which exist for a reason. Too many conversations with people who are probably good mechanics but think they're engineers for me. The fact is, people don't take kit planes and make certifiable versions of them without significant redesigns. I mean, why did Cessna (Bend), nee Columbia, nee Lancair Certified Aircraft go straight legged? It's not because people weren't building retractable Lancair IV's.

In the end, Eclipse is a bad example of a certified aircraft, period, and there is some question how it was certified, so let's not start there. Start with real airplane companies. Saying that real airplane companies making real certified airplanes are making things to the minimum standard while kit guys are designing beyond the standard is just ridiculous. Mostly the kit guys don't know WHAT they're designing to. You get tests like, "I jumped up and down on it and it didn't break" or "I cut the biggest hole I dared to cut in it" and other impressive examples of lack of understanding of engineering fundamentals. They get away with it because:

1) a large percentage of kit planes never see any service (never completed)
2) of those completed, most don't see high numbers of cycles
3) generally people who kill themselves in a kit plane can't sue anyone and typically they only kill their families and friends, not paying customers (for reasons which are obvious)

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