tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3817101653623448889.post7824903029663173318..comments2023-09-17T04:46:20.879-07:00Comments on Eclipse Aviation Critic NG: New Mexico nights, and other mattersShane Pricehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07181451780244241883noreply@blogger.comBlogger124125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3817101653623448889.post-63919908582656506412008-05-31T13:11:00.000-07:002008-05-31T13:11:00.000-07:00"Dave Ivedorne said... "Any planespotters in the A..."Dave Ivedorne said... <BR/>"Any planespotters in the ABQ area could help with this."<BR/><BR/>They might want to take a look out at Double Eagle while they're at it...<BR/><BR/>ANSWER:<BR/>There are 27 in Gainesville FL. Getting Completed<BR/>There are 12 in Albany, NY. Getting Completed<BR/>There are 0 at Double Eagle. <BR/>There are 39 in ABQ and that is not including a few in the FINAL COMPLETION Hanger and the few in the Delivery Hanger.20yearmechanichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05839014864876780897noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3817101653623448889.post-78515320984026041422008-05-31T12:50:00.000-07:002008-05-31T12:50:00.000-07:00CHICKASAW SAID: Your whole post has me riled up.( ...CHICKASAW SAID: Your whole post has me riled up.( DEAL WITH THE REALITY) <BR/><BR/>1. You can in fact pull a Huck with a Cherry Max gun. Alcoa, Huck and Cherry all say that you can do this . (IF YOU CHANGE THE TIPS SO THE RETENTION RING WILL SEAT PROPER, YES.) <BR/><BR/>2. Who is the rep that stated this? ( JOHN GRAY from CHERRY MAX) <BR/><BR/>3. If you have found loose rivets in SP2 it is for some other reason.<BR/>You have by default also cast aspersions on the QA staff in SP11 and SP10 where the riveting is done. ( WHO? KIM? She only got the HEAD QA position because she is blonde and is cute and, Well im not getting into it on this post all the other reasons. Cathy? She had no clue that you had to strip paint off to electrical bond antennas to the aircraft. MARK? He used to inspect home furniture at Mc Kinstry in ABQ. These people aren’t qualified to inspect eggs out of a chickens A**. They only know what we have told them, and that’s week when you consider that they are buying our work.) <BR/><BR/>4. These inspectors (and techs) have been to EAC sponsored seminars and training in which Alcoa and WESCO demonstrated the correct method of pulling rivets and what to look for during inspection. I doubt very much if there are any bad rivets that escape these people. ( NO of course not, NOT THOSE PEOPLE, Sister WAKE THE F**K UP! How can you honestly tell me we have good inspection here, when half the production drawings don’t match what we are building most of the time? That’s why so many NCR’s The manufacturing engineers sit in the fish bowl and don’t due jack to fix this problem! The leads, ADAM, DON, RICK, NEFFY, GARY, DAVE, etc. Yea you know who they are down there, they wont help to get any fixes submitted on the SAP system ether.)<BR/><BR/>5. WESCO. ( They don’t know jack, they are the supplier and they stock our bins with the freestock, WHEN DID THEY/WE EVER GIVE A SEMINAR? All I ever get out of them is “we cant issue this fastener” and “ECLIPSE owes our company 20 Mill and that’s why we cant stock anymore right now” they get paid about $9.00 an HR to sit in the cage and do inventory and maybe come out and stock some bins. <BR/><BR/><BR/>6. I think it is irresponsible to state that the only thing holding the rivets in is paint. This is the type of post that Vern was looking for and did not find….until now.<BR/>( Then maybe Vern or Todd should get off there A** and pop down to the floor and see what we find from time to time, NOT JUST HERE, But in Gainesville too. NO, Vern is too busy working the next money scam to keep his ship afloat. I don’t think Vern reads this, because if he did he would wise up.)<BR/><BR/>IN CLOSING: YES, we all got word that the CON-JET is going to be the E400. Some of us knew this when it was being built out in VA at Wallops Island by the SWIFT guys. MOST WHERE CONTRACTORS FROM HQ AERO. The funny this about that is that VERN in a STATE OF THE COMPANY ADDRESS, Showed the plane in a slide show presentation and called it a CIRRUS JET, so to divert any of the rumors that where floating around the factory. There was a guy that was here that had SPY PHOTOS of it being built on his cell phone back in June of last year. He was called a rumor starter and was fired shortly after. Now in JULY, we will all be off work for a few weeks down in SP 10 and 11 so that they can fix the tooling and do some other things. (MAYBE THIS IS THE NEW LINE FOR THE CON JET BEING PUT IN PLACE?) HOW IS THAT FOR INSIDE INFO CHICKASAW? VERN? PEG? And all my new friends her on this blog. <BR/><BR/>One more thing, IF YOU CANT DELIVER A WORKING 500, HOW CAN YOU DELIVER A WORKING 400? Just a question Vern, DON’T BE MAD!<BR/><BR/>I’m enjoying my last week here at ECLIPSE.<BR/><BR/>Love, ECLIPSE EMPLOYEE 505ECLIPSE EMPLOYEE 505https://www.blogger.com/profile/08413625405021579891noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3817101653623448889.post-69668156867762979902008-05-30T21:31:00.000-07:002008-05-30T21:31:00.000-07:00A thought for the night:Let's say you had a compan...A thought for the night:<BR/><BR/>Let's say you had a company with a totally ginned up order backlog. Let's say your 2,600 orders was proven to be 2,000, then 800, then 600 or less. <BR/><BR/>Let's further say the attrition to the remaining orders was significant...as in "depositors running for their lives". <BR/><BR/>And lets finally say you'd already limped out 200 "deliveries" and were quickly running out of callable Progress Payments. <BR/><BR/>The Piper needs to be paid. Planes have to be "delivered". Cash flow has dried up. What to do, what to do?<BR/><BR/>Here's one solution:<BR/>Tell the world that you have a new product, even more revolutionary than the last. Explain that demand has exceeded your wildest expectations. Then strong-arm those awaiting the previous product to switch their order to the new product, with their agreement to wait another 3 or 10 years.<BR/><BR/>IOW, buy time and pray for a miracle as production winds down on the remaining orders.<BR/><BR/>Meantime, if you're REALLY sick.....errr, slick, generate advertisements touting how you always deliver on your promises. <BR/><BR/>Yep, you couldn't find this stuff in a Jimmy Breslin novel.<BR/><BR/>GunnerRich Lucibellahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03317914081455082454noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3817101653623448889.post-55641892473554324292008-05-30T21:18:00.000-07:002008-05-30T21:18:00.000-07:00CWMoR said:"I am not sure I would go so far as to ...CWMoR said:<BR/><I>"I am not sure I would go so far as to suggest Vern would knowingly mislead the buying public with a deliberate bait and switch".</I><BR/><BR/>I'm sure I'd go that far. How could you have Avio replaced by AvioNG, replaced with by a Garmin 400 absent a bit-o-bait-n-switch? How could you have 300+ progress payments called on the eve of announcing the split with Avidyne, without a bit-o-bait-n-switch? This latest arm twist to get Depositors to move from a twinjet so a single for similar dollars is a classic bait-n-switch.....especially given the promise to delay delivery of the deposited product for what looks to be another 4-5 years.<BR/><BR/>Face it, Fish....Bait-n-Switch is Vern Raburn's middle name. Where would his company be without the time-honored tactic? Hmmmm?<BR/>GunnerRich Lucibellahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03317914081455082454noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3817101653623448889.post-51559652571379903532008-05-30T21:12:00.000-07:002008-05-30T21:12:00.000-07:00Dave said:I have a manufacturing question...isn't ...Dave said:<BR/>I have a manufacturing question...isn't it easier for a factory line to make one product instead of switching between products? How exactly is the workflow going to work in determine whether the 500 or the 400 should be built at any given moment?<BR/><BR/>Dave, hopefully your question was not rhetorical because here is the answer.<BR/><BR/>Flexible manufacturing systems can do this easily if both planes are the composition. Auto plants run 2 or 3 models down the same line every day. <BR/><BR/>That being said; you CANNOT build a sheet metal plane and a composite plane on the same line. The tools and tooling are completely different.<BR/><BR/>You might be able to do this in the same building on parallel lines, but the ABQ SP11 facility is not large enough to accommodate that method.chickasawhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14045891705532327182noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3817101653623448889.post-14917950266791798382008-05-30T20:51:00.000-07:002008-05-30T20:51:00.000-07:00Ceri,I gave you a stab at the basics, a tight pres...Ceri,<BR/><BR/>I gave you a stab at the basics, a tight pressure vessel, possibly an alternate source of pressurization (electric standby compressor?), and the pressure demand O2 system.<BR/><BR/>All of those technologies exist, the question is do they exist at the size, weight and cost necessary to fit-in/support the E-400/e-CONjet? I don't have the answer to that question, having no direct insight into the program, but I am skeptical.<BR/><BR/>Another alternative would be for Eclipse to try and prove an equivalent level of safety, possibly through analysis and perhaps some flight test, basically to prove to the FAA they can maintain the cabin altitude until a descent is made but I would suspect that this would be difficult.<BR/><BR/>You bring up an interesting point about the FL410 claim. I am not sure I would go so far as to suggest Vern would knowingly mislead the buying public with a deliberate bait and switch re: Max Operating Altitude, but given the history - who knows.<BR/><BR/>As for the media, it would appear that some of them do read the blog and they decide for themselves whether or not to investigate further and maybe post a story or two - or not. It is up to them.ColdWetMackarelofRealityhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15946506673589233990noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3817101653623448889.post-86833482293739219962008-05-30T19:57:00.000-07:002008-05-30T19:57:00.000-07:00None of the single engine turboprops are certified...None of the single engine turboprops are certified to 41000; but then their fuel economy peaks at lower altitudes, anyway.<BR/><BR/>Is there a feasible (cost, weight) technology for meeting the FARs to allow operation at this altitude?<BR/><BR/>The thing about 41000 question is: do Eclipse actually expect/intend to get certification to this altitude, or is it classic bait and switch? In 2 years or so will Vern be blaming the 'dinosaurs' in the FAA for denying certification to this FL? (And you can bet that the price won't go down and he'll have a bunch more deposits than those SEJ manufacturers who promise realistic altitude certification).<BR/><BR/>If this is what you (the various experts who contribute to this blog) think, then it behoves us to try to bring this to the attention of the media, doesn't it?Cerihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13532529144940481480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3817101653623448889.post-16144084617427799142008-05-30T19:39:00.000-07:002008-05-30T19:39:00.000-07:00Un-freaking-believable. Truly.Lessee here. We're r...Un-freaking-believable. Truly.<BR/><BR/>Lessee here. We're raising the price of the FPJ to well over $2Mill. Critics have been stating for over a year that the PROMISED plane couldn't be sold profitably for less than that...The Faithful scoffed. (This new price should really cut into the Mustang's market....NOT.)<BR/><BR/>Unfortunately...this isn't the PROMISED plane. It remains an unfinished IOU, saddled with a growing reputation for lowered expectations.<BR/><BR/>But WAIT. They've finally seen the light. They figgered it out and are REALLY serious this time. An SEJ certified to FL410 at a price of $1.35mm...a price for which The Faithful damned the D-Jet project.<BR/><BR/>All this from the same company that's been on the brink of bankruptcy several times, bilked Depositors of tens of millions in payments long before they were contractually due and failed to fully certify an aircraft with 200 hobbled protos on the market. The same company that turned to Russia for financing and manufacturing know-how when it failed so miserably on its own.<BR/><BR/>Yep, after seeing the "value proposition" of Eclipse's $2.15 Million Dollar offering the buying public should beat a path to ABQ for dibs on the EclipseJet Part Deux. <BR/><BR/>Vern, I gotta hand it to you. You may be aviation's greatest hump; it's poster child tool....but you got moxie, boy. You might note, however, that the Con-Jet is not geared toward a new market, but to the exact same $1.5MM market that the EA-50X failed so flawlessly to attract in the numbers you so shamelessly lied about. <BR/><BR/>Come to think of it, maybe it's not "moxie", but the complete lack of shame seen only in the terminally sociopathic. Public Offering, here we come.<BR/><BR/>GunnerRich Lucibellahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03317914081455082454noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3817101653623448889.post-40605354017278574602008-05-30T19:37:00.000-07:002008-05-30T19:37:00.000-07:00The two driving regulations are 23.841 and 23.1411...The two driving regulations are 23.841 and 23.1411 insofar as design goes.<BR/><BR/>Flight at FL410 requires the cabin to have a means to maintain pressure altitude not greater than 15,000 ft (23.841) in the event of ANY failure, and it requires a pressure demand oxygen system instead of the basic demand oxygen system for crew (23.1411).<BR/><BR/>There are NO single engine aircraft certified for flight at FL410, none.<BR/><BR/>TBM 700 goes to FL300, FL310 with specific mods<BR/><BR/>PC-XII goes to FL300<BR/><BR/>Meridian goes to FL300<BR/><BR/>See a pattern here?<BR/><BR/>A review of the TCDS for these aircraft does not show any special notes re: pressurization, but presumably getting down to breathable altitude from FL300 is considered acceptable. <BR/><BR/>Basically you need a very tight airframe (read that no leaks), or a means to add pressure to overcome leakage, and then you need the more complicated and expensive pressure demand O2 system.<BR/><BR/>It is my opinion that the likelihood of a small jet that barely breaks 300 knots getting cleared to operate in the same flight levels as 400-500 knot airliners is a bit low. Even if there is a reasonable technical solution, it will require a change to how small jets are handled in the ATC system - the big boys (Cessna, Gulfstream, Falcon) are as fast or faster than the airliners.<BR/><BR/>Vern of course I am sure has some 'disruptive' solution in mind, but this dinosaur is drawing an 11,000 foot blank.ColdWetMackarelofRealityhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15946506673589233990noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3817101653623448889.post-54059158782935819182008-05-30T18:53:00.000-07:002008-05-30T18:53:00.000-07:00Dayjet Utilization this week128 hours in 13 craft2...Dayjet Utilization this week<BR/>128 hours in 13 craft<BR/>25 fields had 'departure hours' including new ports KSRQ and KJAX above 10 hours each; Pensacola has also been very busy this week.<BR/><BR/>Departure hours from fields...<BR/>1 KBCT 22:25<BR/>2 KGNV 12:59<BR/>3 KSRQ 11:13<BR/>4 KJAX 10:20<BR/>5 KPNS 10:12<BR/>6 KOPF 10:03<BR/>7 KAPF 9:36<BR/>8 KTLH 8:14<BR/>9 KSAV 4:32<BR/>10 KCSG 4:24<BR/>11 KDHN 2:51<BR/>12 KMGM 2:37<BR/>13 KEYW 2:17<BR/>14 KNEW 2:15<BR/>15 KLAL 2:11<BR/>16 KPFN 2:06<BR/>17 KGRD 1:49<BR/>18 KMLB 1:43<BR/>19 KDTS 1:35<BR/>20 KCRG 0:51<BR/>21 KPDK 0:51<BR/>22 KLEE 0:50<BR/>23 KSFB 0:43<BR/>24 KISM 0:40<BR/>25 KPIE 0:21<BR/><BR/> Seven Craft flew more than 10 hours. <BR/>1 153 17:30<BR/>2 147 16:23<BR/>3 139 15:41<BR/>4 150 15:02<BR/>5 161 14:56<BR/>6 142 12:15<BR/>7 162 10:45<BR/>8 163 6:39<BR/>9 152 6:18<BR/>10 156 4:47<BR/>11 160 4:32<BR/>12 148 1:48<BR/>13 158 1:02<BR/>14 141 …<BR/>15 145 …<BR/>16 146 …xhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14983198179958944824noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3817101653623448889.post-67474386483713621752008-05-30T18:44:00.000-07:002008-05-30T18:44:00.000-07:00'Getting to 41,000 feet is probably the easiest pa...'Getting to 41,000 feet is probably the easiest part. The problem is "getting down" in time, to a safe landing in the event of a power failure. 'Remember all the things that depend on constant auxilliary power . . . electro-mechanical controls (as in, "everything"), all flight instruments, heat . . . oh, and that other minor thing, "pressurization". That should be more fun than one of these new "5-axis" roller coasters.<BR/><BR/>gadfly<BR/><BR/>(The layout reminds me of playing on a "short" teeter-totter with a big kid on the other side . . . back when I was young and dinosaurs roamed.)gadflyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13191372920897029941noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3817101653623448889.post-80143782056758392862008-05-30T18:30:00.000-07:002008-05-30T18:30:00.000-07:00Composite or metal? I seem to have missed the part...<I>Composite or metal? I seem to have missed the part where Eclipse suddenly became an efficient manufacturer of composite structures. If composite, how do they fill that gap? If metal, it means yet another fantasy that has never seen the light of day.</I><BR/><BR/>Be careful or Vern will wish you into the cornfield. All Vern has to do is wish for something to happen and then it becomes reality.<BR/><BR/><I>No more fork-tailed doctor killers, m'kay?</I><BR/><BR/>Fork-tailed aircraft are the most natural fit for fork-tongued Vern. <BR/><BR/>Also both since it has been brought up in the past regarding aviation in general and since it was brought up here, what additional requirements are there to be certified for FL410 versus the requirements of the EA400s competitors? Also what is the likelyhood of the EA400 flying at FL410 even with the certification...like how often do EA500s fly at FL410? I'm wondering if this is just to show unrealistic gas mileage that wont be achieved in the real world. The EPA should have airplane tests for fuel efficiency based on real world scenarios just like how auto manufacturers do (and Vern afterall is trying to replicate auto manufacturers).Davehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08301246864437379349noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3817101653623448889.post-74504274772298822482008-05-30T18:20:00.000-07:002008-05-30T18:20:00.000-07:00From Aviation Week:"The Eclipse Concept Jet was de...From <A HREF="http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/story.jsp?id=news/ECLIPSE05308.xml&headline=Eclipse%20To%20Produce%20Single-Engined%20Jet&channel=busav" REL="nofollow">Aviation Week</A>:<BR/><BR/>"The Eclipse Concept Jet was designed and built by rapid-prototyping specialists Swift Engineering, but the production aircraft will be designed and produced by Eclipse, the company says"<BR/><BR/>Composite or metal? I seem to have missed the part where Eclipse suddenly became an efficient manufacturer of composite structures. If composite, how do they fill that gap? If metal, it means yet another fantasy that has never seen the light of day.<BR/><BR/>Ground bound vaporware.<BR/><BR/>And from <A HREF="http://www.aero-news.net/index.cfm?ContentBlockID=dce3d0fa-1f54-4981-9649-f94f81d91b6f&" REL="nofollow">ANN</A>:<BR/>"Eclipse intends to certify the 400 to FL410 -- 16,000 feet higher than the maximum service ceiling for Diamond's D-Jet and the Cirrus "the-jet," and 6,00 feet higher than Piper aims for its PiperJet."<BR/><BR/>Planning on certifying it, Vern? This ain't Blakely's FAA you'll be submitting the design to - and how 'bout EASA cert? No more fork-tailed doctor killers, m'kay?<BR/><BR/>Oh yeah, I forgot - Vern says pilots cause crashes...<BR/><BR/>So we have a <B>new</B> set of promises from a guy who has broken pretty much every one he's ever made about airplanes. Tell ya what, Vern - I won't hold my breath waiting on any to be met just yet...<BR/><BR/>Would you like the curly fries?<BR/>IANALPawnShophttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07091676046998796061noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3817101653623448889.post-42684718470764208032008-05-30T18:10:00.000-07:002008-05-30T18:10:00.000-07:00Ok, I get it, we all hate Vern. He can do no right...Ok, I get it, we all hate Vern. He can do no right. <BR/><BR/>Technical questtion: Any ideas how they can certify the E400 to 41000ft? All the performance claims will turn to ... dust ... if they can't.Cerihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13532529144940481480noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3817101653623448889.post-3763870212160529702008-05-30T17:23:00.000-07:002008-05-30T17:23:00.000-07:00I'm with Easybake...sue Vern for violation of our ...I'm with Easybake...<BR/>sue Vern for violation of our Full Public Disclosure Disagreement.<BR/><BR/>If the E500 is the Fisher Price Jet, would the E400 have to default to the Barbie Jet moniker?<BR/><BR/>Hmmmm, maybe not - we seem to abbreviate frequently around here. Gotta think of the children, don'cha know (besides, don't the CRJ's already use that one?)<BR/><BR/>How about "Fake Cirrus Jet"? Nah, don't want to taint the Klapmeier boys' effort with that.<BR/><BR/>I've got it - the "<A HREF="http://hackedgadgets.com/2007/07/01/jet-powered-sinclair-c5/" REL="nofollow">Sinclair Jet</A>". Plastic chassis, and based on a truly "disruptive" product that didn't live up to its original promises...<BR/><BR/>Would you like cutlery and condiments?<BR/>IANALPawnShophttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07091676046998796061noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3817101653623448889.post-17499918814333577782008-05-30T17:10:00.000-07:002008-05-30T17:10:00.000-07:00I guess the 75 question is now obvious - controlle...I guess the 75 question is now obvious - controller listings. Or should I say "run for the hills".<BR/><BR/>It's all over.<BR/>Twitching still... <BR/><BR/>Conjet aptly named.<BR/><BR/>e500 officially DOA.<BR/><BR/>No air taxi revolution here... move along.airtaximanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12977944795556689805noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3817101653623448889.post-61951389708081661742008-05-30T16:54:00.000-07:002008-05-30T16:54:00.000-07:00DaveThe implications of the "VBSOD" are downright ...Dave<BR/><BR/>The implications of the "VBSOD" are downright scary. And I was hoping that it would end before it gets to that point.<BR/><BR/>gadfly<BR/><BR/>(And that is not a joke!)gadflyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13191372920897029941noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3817101653623448889.post-78807702717078662032008-05-30T16:43:00.000-07:002008-05-30T16:43:00.000-07:00This is not a “hands off” sort of flying machine. ...<I>This is not a “hands off” sort of flying machine. If the screens go blank, I would not want to be aboard . . . nor any of my “loved ones”. Period!</I><BR/><BR/>This would be Vern's BSOD.Davehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08301246864437379349noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3817101653623448889.post-59830306210128224832008-05-30T16:33:00.000-07:002008-05-30T16:33:00.000-07:00"Let the debate begin!"OK . . . I'll bite."Here’s ..."Let the debate begin!"<BR/><BR/>OK . . . I'll bite.<BR/><BR/>"Here’s some predictions from the “gadfly”:<BR/><BR/>The “Con Jet” will suffer stability problems if the computers should ever fail.<BR/><BR/>The “Con Jet” will land “nicely” if everything performs as promised, but will lack inherent stability at altitude and speed (“velocity”).<BR/><BR/>And “Future Pilots” will wish, suddenly, for a big vertical fin at unexpected moments.<BR/><BR/>Keeping watch for long straight strips of “asphalt” within ten miles will become an ever present thought in the minds of “Con Jet” pilots . . . and a “wish” for a simple cable control system, should that engine ever fail.<BR/><BR/>This is not a “hands off” sort of flying machine. If the screens go blank, I would not want to be aboard . . . nor any of my “loved ones”. Period!<BR/><BR/>Remember, these are my own opinions based on my limited knowledge of aerodynamics, and a somewhat “simple” approach to control systems based on my own short life, experiments, “hands on” testing, . . . and study.<BR/><BR/>Since we now know the “intentions” of this enterprise, we may have some time to discuss the “pros” and “cons” of an “effective forward swept wing”, wing-tip fuel tanks, and a “delta vee tail” (“ruddervators” . . . void of a good lateral (yaw) control, etc.). And compare it with the early days of “Bonanza” . . . the famous favorite of “doctors” (if you get my drift). Hey, that’s almost funny in a sick sort of way . . . “drift?” . . . Sorry ‘bout that! (But the “Bonanza” didn’t have the challenge of a “delta” tail.)<BR/><BR/>gadfly<BR/><BR/>(Who knows . . . maybe the next technological breakthrough will be “reverse thrust and takeoff”! . . . for people that decide on a different destination at the last minute.)gadflyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13191372920897029941noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3817101653623448889.post-79500166479167307262008-05-30T15:50:00.000-07:002008-05-30T15:50:00.000-07:00Before we get out the 'long knives' let me pick up...Before we get out the 'long knives' let me pick up my horn and toot. <BR/><BR/>[easybakeplane said... <BR/>(bill e. goat said... <BR/><BR/>Easybakeplane,<BR/>Would you care to offer a realistic price point for the E-500, with Avio-N-NG (Next Next Generation, or whatever it will have in 2009), based on 225 units per year?<BR/>Thanks.)<BR/><BR/>My answer is based purely on the published performance and characteristics of the plane and the assumption that it is comparably equipped to similiar models of a/c in it's category. This doesn't say what, if any, profit or loss is made on each sale, but what a certified VLJ with the characteristics of the E-500 should be able to sell for on the open market.<BR/><BR/>Approx $2.1 million (2007)<BR/><BR/>Let the debate begin!<BR/>10:31 PM, February 16, 2008]<BR/><BR/><BR/> (I'm thinking of filing 'outsider information' charges against Vern)easybakeplanehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09065547198556144894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3817101653623448889.post-23709456588578627512008-05-30T15:30:00.000-07:002008-05-30T15:30:00.000-07:00For those keeping score, the latest price increase...For those keeping score, the latest price increase (+$520K) represents about a 30% price jump for the E-500 from the last published price, and now makes the jet 177% (fully $1.375M) more expensive than when first announced in '99.<BR/><BR/>Put another way, the current E-500 price at $2.15M is equivalent to the cost of the proposed E-400, $1.35M more than the original price for the E-500 of $775K.<BR/><BR/>Yes, they announced a half million dollar price increase, on a $1.6M jet - with a straight face, then announced the new can of beans, I mean, new best little jet ever - to replace the previous best little jet ever (Rev 1.5).<BR/><BR/>To make it better, they say they will 'allow' current E-500 position holders to transfer their E-500 order to the E-400 as a 'reward' for sticking with Eclipse for so long. So long in fact, that it will be another 4 years before anyone taking them up on the offer would see their 'new' best little jet ever. <BR/><BR/>E-500 depositors could conceivably have been waiting for as much as 11 years by the time the E-400/e-CONjet is ready - now that is staggering, as is the concept that some of these guys may have ponied up for their 60% progress payment already.<BR/><BR/>Interestingly, the E-400/e-CONjet sports specifiction numbers remarkably similar to the original E-500 in terms of range, fuel load and MTOW.<BR/><BR/>At this point, I expect the E-400 order book to swell rapidly, and to top Cirrus's near 500 orders for 'the Jet', and Eclipse to announce that due to market forces they will discontinue the E-500 program.<BR/><BR/>In his put up or shut up 90-day offer to position holders with less than 50% in, Vern is demanding they switch to the E-400, cancel their order for a refund, or take the price increase. <BR/><BR/>If this results in a run on deposits (at say $250-300K each), with as many as 3-400 depositors by my estimate being eleigible, it could get spendy in a hurry ($75-100M) but it might actually be the desired outcome - force a BK event due to refund demands, and then get the financial equivalent of hitting CTRL-Alt-DEL.<BR/><BR/>Any takers?ColdWetMackarelofRealityhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15946506673589233990noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3817101653623448889.post-18979786648303355312008-05-30T15:11:00.000-07:002008-05-30T15:11:00.000-07:00Let me guess, they already have 13,542 orders for ...Let me guess, they already have 13,542 orders for the E-400, thereby, surprisingly, completely dominating the single engine VLJ market.<BR/><BR/>I don’t have a clue what is really is, but I’m already calling foul on the “order book” this time around, especially if there are large “orders” from his buddies.<BR/><BR/>It’s pretty damn clear that the air taxi model is a failure, making the E-500 a complete loss from a business perspective. So this just moves everyone on to the next Eclipse fiasco. <BR/><BR/>Attention all suckers, get your check books out and be prepared to be underwhelmed once again!metal guyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13165643740993109067noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3817101653623448889.post-1823455136702007942008-05-30T14:55:00.000-07:002008-05-30T14:55:00.000-07:00I have a manufacturing question...isn't it easier ...I have a manufacturing question...isn't it easier for a factory line to make one product instead of switching between products? How exactly is the workflow going to work in determine whether the 500 or the 400 should be built at any given moment?Davehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08301246864437379349noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3817101653623448889.post-77363588061619733372008-05-30T14:35:00.000-07:002008-05-30T14:35:00.000-07:00There is no mention of Avio NfG in regards to the ...There is no mention of Avio NfG in regards to the E-400, on its' own page, on the Eclipse home page, in the official Press Release or in Capt. Zoom's wet panty 'news' article.<BR/><BR/>Initial deliveries are scheduled for Q4 2011 and they seem to be strongly trying to get current E-500 position holders to switch, offering a $125K discount for the E-400 while simultaneously raising the price on the E-500 to well over $2M.<BR/><BR/>There are no public offers of Eclipse paying interest to depositors who are already in the E-500 program if they switch to the e-CONjet, even though Vern would have use of their money for at least another 42 months (yes, 3.5 years) before they see their new, best ever little jet.<BR/><BR/>At the time of delivery, inflation adjusted cost for the E-400 by my back of the napkin calculation will be around $1.5M, and they will be about 2 to 2.5 years late to the party - Diamond and Cirrus will both be in production and delivery mode by then.<BR/><BR/>You just can't make this stuff up.<BR/><BR/>ASPCNDA Disclaimer - No NDA's were harmed in the forming of this opinion/satire - all facts and data presented were taken from public sources and appropriate credit was provided - all opinion should be completely ignored until validated by Eclipse's own actions and statements (which history suggests should happen within the next 1.5 to 2 years). Any elements of this opinion/satire that appear to place NDA's in jeopardy were simulated.ColdWetMackarelofRealityhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15946506673589233990noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3817101653623448889.post-83300466981642536352008-05-30T14:15:00.000-07:002008-05-30T14:15:00.000-07:00Will Vern pay us a royalty for finally doing the 2...Will Vern pay us a royalty for finally doing the 2 smartest things we all have been suggesting for a couple years now?<BR/><BR/>Thanks Vern for validating what we have been saying all along. This may be the most mature and adult thing you have done since, well, I don't know but probably a long time.<BR/><BR/>Once again, the predictions of the Critics come to pass.<BR/><BR/>The least Vern could have done is tell Darth Campbell where he got the idea.<BR/><BR/>And lest anyone wonder about my sanity, yes, I do think it is crazy stupid to launch a new program when the first one is not only not done, but may never be done. <BR/><BR/>FWIW - I expect the ECJ/E-400 to announce G1000 instead of Avio - remember, there are always bad news pieces or total changes of direction announced after big glitzy news days. Vern will probably spin it as how impressed Eclipse is with Garmin after their involvement 'saving' Avio NfG and Eclipse's commitment to providing the best value/performance ratio to the customer.<BR/><BR/>If he does go Garmin, I will be amazed - that will represent the best business decision he has made in his tenure at Eclipse.ColdWetMackarelofRealityhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15946506673589233990noreply@blogger.com