Myself, I feel the alligators would have crossed a busy highway to avoid Vern, but I digress.
Earlier this week Karen published the following on CharterX. As usual she has hit the central point in her own piece.
The key is safety. If I have to extract one sentence it would be this one.
"All I know is that every time I've had to fly the Eclipse, I'm truly scared."
I would also draw your particular attention to the Teal Group report on EAC. It makes grim reading, especially for any potential investor in the project.
Teal Group's Richard Aboulafia's First Eclipse Aviation Report
By Karen Di Piazza
Before we address the Teal Group's first report on Eclipse Aviation Corp.'s business plan, authored by Richard Aboulafia, vice president of analysis, aviation insiders have said that because Eclipse, manufacturer of the six-place Eclipse 500 very light jet has halted production for 2008 (last aircraft to be produced is serial no. 267, with no. 266 produced a long time ago), awaits funding, they feel it's a no-brainer that the company is doomed to declare bankruptcy.
By Karen Di Piazza
Before we address the Teal Group's first report on Eclipse Aviation Corp.'s business plan, authored by Richard Aboulafia, vice president of analysis, aviation insiders have said that because Eclipse, manufacturer of the six-place Eclipse 500 very light jet has halted production for 2008 (last aircraft to be produced is serial no. 267, with no. 266 produced a long time ago), awaits funding, they feel it's a no-brainer that the company is doomed to declare bankruptcy.
During recent conference calls with its customers in September and October, Eclipse admitted that unless it gets "funding in October or November," it wouldn't have the funds to refund customer deposits made on the EA500 or its four-place EA400. During conference calls with its customers, Eclipse downplayed numerous lawsuits filed by customers. As of this writing, new lawsuits have been filed against Eclipse. Industry Headline News has requested of Eclipse numerous times to respond to allegations; however, the company refuses to do so.
Cash-strapped Eclipse doesn't have the money for parts needed to fix customers' aircraft, it tells customers during conference calls. Linear Air's CEO William Herp confirmed to Industry Headline News that of the four EA500s managed by Linear Air, "We're operating two Eclipses; we didn't include the EA500s in our recent profits, so we're OK. Yes, we had to let 15 employees go, which is very unfortunate. We wouldn't be surprised if Eclipse filed for bankruptcy." Linear Air ordered 30 EA500s. Herp said that his company is not dependent on the Eclipse 500 for future financial success.
Recently, a corporate pilot who is typed rated in several FAR Part 121 and 135 aircraft as captain, with extensive flight hours, said, "When I have to fly the Eclipse, I am on the edge of my seat waiting for the next disaster to take place. For instance, I've been flying for over 30 years and have never had to go on emergency oxygen, except during routine training. Since flying the Eclipse, I've had to go on emergency oxygen twice now due to fumes in the cockpit and in the cabin. Eclipse seemingly has no idea how to fix these aircraft problems. Flying at 41,000 feet, you don't have much time to deal with these continuous, on-going, very serious issues. All I know is that every time I've had to fly the Eclipse, I'm truly scared."
This is the typical story we hear we hear from experienced, professional pilots.
And then there's DayJet, Eclipse's former star, the largest air taxi operator in the world, which we reported on May 2 had ordered 1,400 Eclipse 500 jets. DayJet has since gone out of business. On Oct. 20, Eclipse sent emails to its customers stating that it was acting as "DayJet's broker," to sell DayJet's fleet of 28 abandoned planes. But the best part of this report is really about Richard Aboulafia's report on Eclipse.
Cash-strapped Eclipse doesn't have the money for parts needed to fix customers' aircraft, it tells customers during conference calls. Linear Air's CEO William Herp confirmed to Industry Headline News that of the four EA500s managed by Linear Air, "We're operating two Eclipses; we didn't include the EA500s in our recent profits, so we're OK. Yes, we had to let 15 employees go, which is very unfortunate. We wouldn't be surprised if Eclipse filed for bankruptcy." Linear Air ordered 30 EA500s. Herp said that his company is not dependent on the Eclipse 500 for future financial success.
Recently, a corporate pilot who is typed rated in several FAR Part 121 and 135 aircraft as captain, with extensive flight hours, said, "When I have to fly the Eclipse, I am on the edge of my seat waiting for the next disaster to take place. For instance, I've been flying for over 30 years and have never had to go on emergency oxygen, except during routine training. Since flying the Eclipse, I've had to go on emergency oxygen twice now due to fumes in the cockpit and in the cabin. Eclipse seemingly has no idea how to fix these aircraft problems. Flying at 41,000 feet, you don't have much time to deal with these continuous, on-going, very serious issues. All I know is that every time I've had to fly the Eclipse, I'm truly scared."
This is the typical story we hear we hear from experienced, professional pilots.
And then there's DayJet, Eclipse's former star, the largest air taxi operator in the world, which we reported on May 2 had ordered 1,400 Eclipse 500 jets. DayJet has since gone out of business. On Oct. 20, Eclipse sent emails to its customers stating that it was acting as "DayJet's broker," to sell DayJet's fleet of 28 abandoned planes. But the best part of this report is really about Richard Aboulafia's report on Eclipse.
Thanks Karen, a well thought out piece. You may contact Karen Di Piazza at Karen@bizandaviationpub.com for any feedback you'd like to send her about her article.
Read the Teal Group report carefully. It's a PDF file, which you can 'save as' and digest in your own time. Here are two snippets for those who need encouragement to make the effort:-
First, commenting on the DOT IG investigation.
The IG stated: “This isn’t about a certification process riddled with flaws…What this case is about is an accommodative approach to a new manufacturer using new technology and a new business model to put a high-speed, high-altitude jet in the hands of relatively inexperienced private pilots.”
Second, the difficulty in predicting what might happen to the company.
Keeping up with this program has become a surreal experience. Irrational investors make forecasting difficult, but socialist governments make it even tougher. The latest post-Soviet five-year plan calls for the Russian government to fund an Eclipse line in Russia. This is not a business decision made by the private sector, and therefore we can’t predict whether it will be provided. We also don’t know when the money will be provided. With numerous lawsuits from suppliers and customers, Eclipse faces the prospect of involuntary or voluntary bankruptcy.
From the 'inbox', which you all know as eclipsecriticng@gmail.com
We all saw the Teal report here. Richard missed the round of financing that happened in summer of 2007 which was another $275M of debt financing. This is what makes up the total $550M of senior secured debt. That amount, plus another $550 million in private equity, together with sundry other inputs drives the investor funds towards $1.2 billion.
Add what the customers have paid in already (about $320 million) plus the remaining deposits (about $60 million), you can see where this has been a party worth more than $1,500,000,000. Supplier activity is harder to measure, but they must have invested heavily. This could easily drive the TOTAL amount spent close to $2 BILLION plus the involvement of thousands of people's lives. All for 250 odd aircraft delivered so far.
These are expensive jets!
I think we can all agree that this last line is an understatement of historic proportions....
The DayJet birds made headlines again. I sure hope they find a home shortly, as they are in real danger of clogging the market unless they do. My hunch is that FPJ Inc have little choice at this stage and will have to take anything around the $850,000 DayJet agreed to pay originally. The following from AIN Online, which is a great source for business news.
OurPlane Makes Play for Former DayJet Eclipse 500s
By Chad Trautvetter
London, Ontario-based OurPlane–a fractional provider of “new light aircraft,” including Cirrus SR22 piston singles and one Eclipse 500–today made a bid to purchase the entire fleet of 28 Eclipse 500s formerly operated by DayJet. OurPlane, which also has a separate standing order for 21 Eclipse very light jets, said it submitted a “fair offer reflecting the current market value for the Eclipse jets.
Company president and CEO Graham Casson told AIN that the bid is more than JetsAmerica’s previous offer of $500,000 each but less than $1.5 million apiece. If its bid is accepted, OurPlane plans immediately to begin selling quarter shares in the jets for less than $449,000, with the first ones likely to be based at its locations in Southern California and the New York City area.
Additionally, Casson said the very light jets would enter service in the first quarter next year after their interiors are upgraded to the LX version and, at minimum, the DayJet logos are removed from their exteriors. OurPlane, which has 12 locations across the U.S. and Canada, is “confident that Eclipse will follow through in the final modifications and refurbishment that are due on these and all Eclipse aircraft.
And finally (drum roll, clash of symbols, trumpets)
THAT ALL IMPORTANT COMPETITION
You will remember I posted a fantastic prize offer on this thread. The correct answer to the question 'what would Vern's FPJ have on the tail' is, I'm reliably informed, 'N500VR'. I'm glad to report that I've saved myself a lunch bill, since none of you got it exactly right.
However, since a number of you posted very well thought out 'suggestions' I prepared to offer the following contributors a pint (of Guinness, naturally) in my favorite pub.
N0PE (short for No Hope)
N00NE (pretty clear, I think)
N505TU (Several variants of this one....)
CR-APJET (from the Cape Verde Islands!)
NOTVLJ (Pretty much sums it up)
NYETJET ('Russian' entry)
And last, but not least
0 + 0 = 1+ (our principle 'European' correspondent, and my personal choice)
You all know who you are, and how to contact me. I'll be very happy to pay for the 'prize'.
We look forward now to our long weekend here in Ireland, with lots of fireworks. Come to think of it, some of the 'rumblings' out of New Mexico would suggest that this won't be the only place with the odd explosion over the next few days. Stay tuned...
Shane